What to Expect from Papelbon
by Dan Ventresca on Feb 7, 2011 5:14 PM EST
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Boston Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon arrived at the team's spring training facility in Fort Myers, Fl. today in his final year of arbitration eligibility with the club. He posted his worst season to-date in 2010 and questions about his future swirled around Red Sox Nation when the team reportedly made a multi-year offer to Yankees closer Mariano Rivera and signed former White Sox closer Bobby Jenks.
Papelbon addressed that uncertainty today by telling ESPN Boston's Gordon Edes, "They don’t pay me to think. If I’m a thinker, then I’m not a closer."
Maybe if he did more thinking, Papelbon wouldn't have seen his ERA balloon from 1.85 in 2009 to 3.90 last year. His homeruns/ fly ball percentage rose from 5.3 to 9.1 and his BB/9 jumped to 3.76 from 3.18. Simply put, his control is declining and he's getting hit harder than ever in his career.
Bill James predicts on FanGraphs that Papelbon will have a bounce back year of sorts: 2.61 ERA, 2.61 BB/9 and 41 saves. He did show stretches of dominance last year, such as an 11.2 innings scoreless streak that lasted through the entire month of July.
However, I believe Papelbon will take yet another step backwards and may even lose his job to Jenks or closer-in-waiting Daniel Bard. Papelbon threw his fastball 69 percent of the time last year, when he threw it more than 80 percent of the time the previous two seasons. His stuff is declining and he's lost his confidence in the pitch that got him to the Big Leagues.
Manager Terry Francona has demonstrated undying loyalty to his veteran players in the past (see Ortiz, David) and even to a rookie (Pedroia, Dustin) when they went through early-season struggles. So, don't expect Papelbon to lose his job by May.
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I would be okay with a mid-low 3s ERA. Not what we're paying him for, but he would be useful.
Hopefully he can pull off that mid-high 2s ERA. He just needs to cut his walks down and get some LOB% and HR/FB% regression (both were worse than career averages last year).
I kinda tend to think
that sheer dogged determination and the fact that he is pitching for money will motivate Paps.
Looking closer at the numbers – his xFIP was actually lower last year than in 2009 when he posted a 1.85 ERA (although his FIP was higher), he still struck out 10.2 per 9 and according to pitchFX his fastball velocity was right on par with previous seasons.
The difference with his fastball was he tended to throw it a lot less and instead went more to a cutter than in the past (a pitch he threw very little of in 09/08)
At 31 it would kinda be hard to believe that he’s on the way down, especially for a reliever
Though really, since arb kicked in hasn't he been pitching for money every year?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
You bring up some great points, Bob. But consider how many hard-throwing relievers flame out quickly. He didn’t dominate to the same extent Papelbon has, but former Sox closer Heathcliff Slocum went from an elite closer to a mop-up man by age 30.
by Dan Ventresca on Feb 7, 2011 10:02 PM EST up reply actions
of course its possible
although I would never have considered Slocumb “elite”
Heath Bell was 32 last year, Joe Nathan (injury notwhithstanding) pitched elite 31-34, Wagner was elite well into his 30s
unless its an arm problem (which it might be) its just hard for me to see a trend with one season
Takashi Saito was elite when he was healthy.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
Papelbon's act is old.
I’d like him to keep his mouth shut, and pitch to the level he thinks he can.
If they demote him, might as well release him, he will just sulk.
!!!!! GONZO !!!!!
!!!!! CRAWFORD !!!!!
!!!!! LIVERPOOL !!!!!
by gizmosandy on Feb 7, 2011 6:41 PM EST reply actions 2 recs
I get more recs than anyone on this site.
!!!!! GONZO !!!!!
!!!!! CRAWFORD !!!!!
!!!!! LIVERPOOL !!!!!
He needs to work on his cutter, and his off speed pitches..
Paps can’t leave Spring Training thinking he will be closer with a 94-95mph fastball as his only weapon. He needs to be a different pitcher than he was 2-3 years ago. He can’t throw crap to wait for batters to swing, and then when they don’t throw a meatball down the middle of the plate..
maybe
but still does not seem to make sense that in his worst year he threw less fastballs. Unless he started early with the fastball, it got hammered then he went to the cutter more. He threw his fastball about 80-85% of the time in his good years and only 68% last year.
I tend to agree with Bob here.
I think that Papelbon definitely still has ‘stuff’.
His fastball was routinely in the high-90s all season.
And he lead all RS pitchers by a huge margin in SWstr% at 13.0% (Lester was way back in 2nd at ‘just’ 10.3%).
That tells me that Papelbon still has the ability to blow it by people. He also was very good at getting a first pitch strike at 63.4%.
His problems last year probably had more to do with over thinking his pitch selection late in the counts. I can’t tell you how many times I wanted him to just throw the heat past someone on two strikes and instead he would try to get cute and give up the dink flair or seeing-eye grounder.
So maybe Papelbon’s statement about not being paid to think are a moment of self-realization. Don’t think, meat. Throw the heat.
That's my memory of last year too...
Papelbon up 0-2 on a hitter, starts nibbling and eventually gives up a hit, allows the batter to get back to a 3-2 count and draw a walk, or gives up a bomb. I’m sure the stats are out there, but I wonder whether he did better on 0-0 counts or 0-2 counts (if that makes sense).
Right, I think he’s completely lost his confidence in the fastball because A) his velocity is down and B) his control is declining. I believe the only way he regains his previous levels of success is if he reinvents his approach like Curt Schilling did. I don’t think he’s capable of doing that.
walk rates are not necessarily a measure of control
a huge factor in walk rates is pitching strategy.
If you live on the edges of the plate, trying to throw the perfect pitch, you will tend to have higher walk rates (See Matsuzaka, D.). It doesn’t mean you are ‘wild’. It may mean you are too ambitious.
If you throw it down the middle, relying on velocity changes or movement, you will walk less (See Wakefield, T.).
Those two pitchers are extremes, but they illustrate the point. In my opinion, Papelbon’s increased walk rates have less to do with loss of control and more to do with being too cute and not relying on his fastball enough as a finisher. He would start trying to throw the perfect pitch on the edges and end up not getting the calls. Maybe that supports your statement that he has ‘lost confidence’ in his fastball, but if he has it isn’t for any good reason. His velocity and swstr numbers were still tremendous. He should have had more confidence in his fastball than he apparently did.
I think it depends on which Pap shows up.
2 or 3 years ago he stated that he had a change in approach on the mound. More pitches with less stress on his arm. No surprise that his numbers have declined since he started this new approach. If he continues to pitch this way in order to save himself for free agency then I would expect a similiar season to last year. If he goes back to his attacking approach and getting ahead of the count consistently, I believe he would have a similiar season to his dominating years. It all depends on which Pap shows up.
"They don’t pay me to think. If I’m a thinker, then I’m not a closer."
i like that. it was a well thought out comment.
he’ll improve this year or we are stuck with a lot of wasted salary.
in addition, the sox won’t be able to offer him arbitration in fear he might accept.
but then, he may have a lights out, mariano class season.
who knows?
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