Expectations for Iglesias
by Dan Ventresca on Feb 11, 2011 4:07 PM EST
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The Boston Red Sox have very few questions about their everyday lineup heading into spring training, with most positions being held down by well-established players. But, position battles are one of the things that make spring training interesting, and the Red Sox could see a battle unfold for the starting shortstop job.
2010 starter Marco Scutaro and the perpetually injured Jed Lowrie are likely to see time at short this year -- with Scutaro as the starter and Lowrie in a super-utility role. But, it appears both players are just keeping the seat warm for Cuban prospect Jose Iglesias.
Iglesias, just 21 years old, played for double-A Portland last season -- appearing in only 57 games due to a broken finger -- and finished the year playing in the Arizona Fall League. He had a .285/.315/.357 line for the Sea Dogs and a .350/.458/.500 showing in 48 plate appearances in Arizona.
There's no question Iglesias is a free swinger (3.4 walk percentage, 22.2 strikeout percentage in Portland), and his ability to hit for power (no homeruns at any level last season) is in question, but his defense alone should warrant an appearance with the Red Sox this season.
His exceptional range and quick hands drew comparisons to Omar Vizquel -- arguably the greatest defensive shortstop who ever played.
Scutaro has one year guaranteed left on his deal and Lowrie -- despite slugging .526 for the Sox down the stretch last year -- is still a question mark having never recorded more than 300 PAs ever in the Majors. Iglesias will likely start the year with Pawtucket, but it's time for the Boston fans to see what they have in the youngster and determine if he really is the shortstop of the future.
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I disagree with some of the assumptions
One, not perpetually injured. He’s had A injury at the major league level that was poorly handled, which dragged it out. His performance this year shows that injury is behind him. Missing time this year was NOT an injury, it was an illness, a random illness that has no bearing on his “injuryproneness”. He’s also healed from that.
Also I disagree with “keeping the seat warm for Iglesias,” Jason A and I had this very drawn out argument before but more in terms of Scoot/Lowrie. Check the projection fanposts to the right, if Lowrie performs to the worst of those projections (not Marcel, I don’t count him), and provides approximately league average defense (which he has shown, it’s definitely not a weakness), he is our short stop of the now and the future. Why? Because an OPS over .800 for a short stop is incredible in this league, only THREE (qualifying) were over .775 last season.
I don’t have much reason to doubt Jedi’s ability, he put up strong numbers in his minor league career, did so in his rookie debut and then kicked ass again when healthy this year. I contend (without any evidence) that Lowrie will be our starter by April. He may not be right now but I think it will happen when he demonstrates his value further, you have to put your best players on the field, and I think he will be one of them, Scoot, who has the same positional versatility will be the super-sub role that Tito has discussed before and it’s one he’s had most of his career. If Lowrie performs to the level he has shown, he will be entrenched in the starter role.
He was worth nearly 2 WAR in 1/3 of a season, that projects to 6 WAR, but to be fair, say with a heavier workload he regresses a little to say 4. Your comparison Omar, he peaked at 6.1, his ONLY season with a WAR higher than 4. Defense is great, but he’s got to get his bat together.
Which is where I argue against another of your assumptions, Jose should start the season in AA, you don’t progress with age or ceiling or legend, you get promoted on results, Jose did not give the results last year necessary to deem him worthy of Pawtucket.
His bat still needs work, maybe the injury really caused a lot of problems, maybe he doesn’t have a lot of batting talent, but what he displayed last year, despite his defense, will not be enough to dislodge Lowrie if he becomes our starter. I’m thinking that Jose is someone we’ll be talking about more in 2012, he won’t be ready this year, and then it might be as trade bait.
In my book, Jedi is the man for the job and will have to be dislodged, if Jose wants it he has to fight for it, not the other way around.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Which is not to say I don't see Jose being a major leaguer
I think he will be, his defense will support a sub-par bat. My overlying point is that I think he will be too late. I think our short stop of the future is Lowrie and if he gets situated in the starting role and becomes a top 5 offensive short stop are they really going to bench him for a player who’s “sexy” stats are ones the fans don’t usually see?
I don’t think they can.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Agreed on Iglesias needing more time
There is no point in rushing a 21-year old star with a weak bat to the majors before he’s developed his offensive game as much as he can. If he’s a .240 hitter with a great glove, he’s not nearly as valuable to the Sox or in a trade as he would be if he has developed his self-confidence, plate discipline and technique to be a .275 hitter/.345 OBP guy with the ability to slice a double once in a while. My preference is to give Iglesias through 2012 in Pawtucket and bring him up for 2013 season (unless a trade is deemed a better idea). I see him as the Red Sox SS of the future, but not the near-future.
I agree on Lowrie’s offensive potential. I’m still leery of his staying power/health, but I’d much rather hand the SS position to him in 2012 (or NOW) than bring up Iglesias. I’d even prefer giving Navarro a shot in 2012 (probably better than Lowrie defensively, better than Iglesias offensively) to buy a year for Iglesias, especially if we can get a valuable piece for Lowrie (how about Joachim Soria?). Navarro could then be enhanced trade bait himself or, if he’s not starter-caliber, a pretty good utility guy. There’s always the chance he could be rookie of the year and make both Lowrie and Iglesias ’yesterday’s news."
I don’t think Navarro has anywhere near the upside Iglesias has. I like the idea of trading for Soria, but I think the odds of Iglesias getting traded are astronomically tiny. Theo has butchered the shortstop position (Lugo, Renteria) ever since he let Orlando Cabrera walk and Iglesias is the best bet to solve that problem for the next decade.
Twitter: @Dan_Ventresca
by Dan Ventresca on Feb 12, 2011 12:05 AM EST up reply actions
If Lowrie catches on at SS
And they don’t move him to third in a year or two, bye bye Jose is my general feeling.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Bye Bye Jose, Hola Senor Soto.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 14, 2011 3:34 AM EST up reply actions
I wasn’t saying they should trade Iglesias, just that if a huge diamond was unearthed in the person of Yamaico Navarro, they’d have options. And yes, one of those would be to move Lowrie to 3rd, another would be to move Navarro to 3rd. I suppose they could even move Pedroia to 3rd and one of the other two to 2nd if Pedroia slows down a few steps or has unexpected lasting effects from his foot injury.
I’m excited to see Iglesias play in Boston, but not until he’s the best hitter the minor leagues can make him.
Iglesias doesn't have a subpar bat.
Be patient my friend.
Look at what he was doing pre-injury (his OPS was .750 I believe before the injury…that’s a 20 year-old in AA making his pro debut).
Look at video and check out his bat speed and his compact, line drive-conducive swing.
Theo didn’t give a 19 year-old $8.25 million just for his defense.
I really hope this “Iglesias is all glove” meme dies a month or two into the season.
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by Frederick0220 on Feb 12, 2011 10:07 PM EST up reply actions
Well... He DOES have a subpar bat
The sample size pre-injury isn’t enough for me. He COULD end up with a better bat. But he doesn’t have it yet.
I can’t take what he did and make more out of it than some did. Another small sample,he sucked in the AFL after the injury. Maybe it wasn’t fully healed, maybe it was, those are some recent results that weren’t good. Bat speed and compact, line drive conducive swings are great and all but you have to know what to do with them. He doesn’t know what to do with it yet. He could. He certainly could. But you can’t look at anything he’s actually done and say he has a “par” bat.
I hope it dies too but I’m not going to hand the reins over to a guy who has yet to impress me on the offensive side of the ball.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I know it doesn’t seem like it from my article, but I’m actually a big Jed Lowrie fan. I’ve followed his career since his Stanford days and I think he could be a very good big league shortstop. I agree with you 100% a guy with an .800 OPS who can switch-hit and play short is extremely valuable.
Maybe I was a little harsh on Lowrie by calling him perpetually injured, but the fact is he has yet to prove he can produce with more than 500 ABs.
I’m not totally sold on Iglesias’ bat, either, but I think you’re underestimating his defense. The guy is a game-changer in the field. Unlike anything the Sox have had at that position in quite some time.
I actually voted for Scutaro to finish the year at short, but I think the Sox have to let Iglesias get some ABs in the big leagues this year.
Twitter: @Dan_Ventresca
by Dan Ventresca on Feb 12, 2011 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
I’m just saying that one of the greatest game changers in the field at his position, Vizquel, wasn’t worth a whole lot without a bat, 4 WAR is great and all, but I think we’ll already have that in Lowrie at the position by the time Jose is ready.
I don’t think Jose sees the bigs this year. Your AFL stats are way off from what I’ve seen, what I see is a sub .600 OPS in 67 ABs. He needs to start the year in Portland and I think he’ll stay there for a while unless he sees a Lars-esque hot streak to start the season. Might see a late promotion to Pawtucket but with Navarro at a more advanced level than him and with major league experience already, I expect any and all cups of coffee to go to him this year. I don’t think we’ll see him until 2012 and at that point we’ll know.
I just think we have two guys who can play short for us. One could be a top 3 bat with average defense, one could be a top 3 glove with average offense. Both are valuable. The only problem is that one is ready now, and the other is a year or two away from the major league level. I consider Jose to be a lot like Rizzo in the sense that, yeah, he’s very good, but where’s the space for him? If Lowrie latches on they aren’t just going to hand over the job when Jose is AAA experienced, especially if he is established as an elite hitting short stop, something Boston fans haven’t seen since Nomar. It’s just poor timing. We forget that Lowrie was a hyped prospect at one point, that wrist injury and subsequent mishandling cost him over a year.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Either way, things are looking good for the future of Red So shortstops.
Probably the best they’ve looked since Hanley. We’ve got Lowrie, a guy who raked for half a season and has a great minor league pedigree. And then we have Iglesias, a Vizquel-like defender who has the potential to be an average major league bat and the defense to support even a below-average one.
My position on the great shortstop debate (assuming we live in No Free Agency World)
2011 – Scutaro: Starts the year at shortstop, ends the year as a super-sub; Lowrie: Starts the year as the super-sub, ends the year as the regular shortstop; Iglesias: Portland.
2012 – Scutaro: ; Starts the year as a supersub; traded early in the seasonLowrie: Starting shortstop; Navarro: Brought up from Pawtucket when Scutaro departs;Iglesias: Pawtucket.
2013 – Lowrie: Starting shortstop; Navarro: Super-sub; Iglesias: Pawtucket, called up in September – makes post-season roster.
2014 – Lowrie: Starting third baseman (Youk to DH); Navarro: Super-sub; Iglesias: Starting Shortstop.
I assume those positions remain stable until Xander Bogaerts replaces J-Low at third.
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by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 12, 2011 12:06 AM EST reply actions
You’re pushing Iglesias back too far. His performance in the Arizona Fall League proved he can play at the triple-A level. I like Lowrie, but Navarro just isn’t a big league starter. I could see Lowrie winning the job this year, but Iglesias getting a Sept. call up and winning the job in 2012.
Twitter: @Dan_Ventresca
by Dan Ventresca on Feb 12, 2011 12:11 AM EST up reply actions
Well except that...
… Navarro has proven a lot more with his bat than Iglesias has to this point. I agree that Navarro isn’t a regular major league starter, but I think you’re putting a lot on a guy who has less than a full year of minor league ball considering the time spent injured. I think we both agree that Iglesias is the future at short, I just don’t think he needs to get pushed any faster than a normal progression, which would be Portland-Pawtucket-Boston. I think it’s possible to see him earlier in 2013.
He could probably start now, but I’d rather be sure they adjust him well…
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 12, 2011 12:39 AM EST up reply actions
His performance in AA proves he can't play at a AAA level yet.
And also, where are you getting his Arizona stats?
I see him with a .269/.292/.284 line.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Not sure Youk is around in 2014, personally.
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by Ben Buchanan on Feb 12, 2011 12:37 AM EST up reply actions
Quite possibly...
… but he’s a good enough hitter to merit being re-signed and he has a connection to the club (in the tangible sense, not the “tradition” sense). I figure they at least give it a try.
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 12, 2011 12:41 AM EST up reply actions
They'll kick the tires on him to be sure, but he'll be 35.
It’d have to be a cheap, one or two year deal. And that’s if he keeps it up till then.
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by Ben Buchanan on Feb 12, 2011 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
True...
… I can’t imagine he’d be anything other than an emergency option at 1B or 3B, but he might still hit.
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 12, 2011 1:55 AM EST up reply actions
Youk's roster spot
will be very competitive after Middlebrooks comes on line, especially if Lowrie is still on the roster looking for a regular place to hit. Vitek’s bat will be looking for a spot in the lineup with Ceccini looming on the horizon.
Lavarnway could put pressure on the DH spot if he can’t fill the starting catcher spot and I’d also expect some of the young outfield prospects (Brentz, Hazelbaker, Hassan, Jacobs, maybe Westmoreland!) would need some at-bats here with the starting spots spoken for. By 2015 they may even have competition fromt he Cuban contingent—Ibarra and Linares.
Bottom line is I think they could make it work and should give it a try, but it will be cozy and they can’t trade of too much of their younger player development or salary cap flexibility to be loyal to the admittedly great man.
I like the discussion about this, but remember, it will be 2014.
Some of the above prospects could be traded by this time, also, not all of them will pan out. I know this is a hypothetical, but the Sox will do what they have to do, they always have.
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the right sequence
I agree exactly with your sequence of shortstops, though I think I’d like to give Navarro a shot while Lowrie’s stock is high enough to bring someone valuable (and he’s not injured). I might push the timeline up a half year or more for the Dawn of Iglesias (wear your sunglasses—it will a bright light he flashes from the #6 position, and I’d hate to see him traded before we got to enjoy it for a year or two).
Also like the idea that Lowrie could switch to 3rd by 2014. Middlebrooks sounds like he could be the total package there, though.
Hell, I’m back to Lowrie for Soria (unless KC would take Ellsbury instead) while Lowrie seems like the Holy Grail of shortstops not named Iglesias .
If he plays league average defense
And hits better than Jeter did when he came up, why would you want to trade him for a reliever? I would MUCH rather swing Navarro or Iglesias to KC for Soria if Escobar doesn’t pan out. Also, if you want a good reliever there’s always Joe Thatcher’s 11.9 k/9, Bartlett’s gone in two years and both Headley and Thatcher will be in Arb 3 at that point, Headley/Lowrie/Pedroia/Gonzalez would be one hell of an infield.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
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by TheLoneDavid on Feb 14, 2011 3:43 AM EST up reply actions
and a .350/.458/.500 showing in 48 plate appearances in Arizona.
Waaaay off.
.275/.324/.420 in 69
The 48 plate appearances you’re citing were his rehab assignment in Lowell, I believe.
Iglesias has yet to prove he’s ready for Triple-A pitching. There seems to be this bizarre rush by the Boston media to see him promoted to the Bigs immediately (as in, “Oh, yeah, I bet we’ll see him July 2010”), but no, there’s absolutely no reason for that.
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For the record, he also played in the Fall this year, performing much worse in the AFL
.262/.292/.284, 7 K, 2 BB in about 70 AB.
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by Ben Buchanan on Feb 12, 2011 12:41 AM EST up reply actions
I agree. I don't want to see Iglesias in the bigs this year unless he has a monster year in Pawtucket
Frankly, because we have Lowrie and Scutaro and (in a pinch) Navarro, there is no reason to rush Iglesias to the bigs. I expect to see him in 2012, possibly on Opening Day, but likely mid-season.
Now I’m not opposed to starting Iglesias in Portland, especially if he really needs help with plate discipline. But eventually, Iglesias must be in Pawtucket by the end of the season.
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My expectation is a start in Portland, followed by a mid-season promotion.
He might be a september callup, but that’s it. Keep in mind that he’s really young for Portland, and it’s his first professional (at least American) baseball experience.
My mistake
sorry, everyone about those AFL stats. Those are on FanGraphs and I went back to double check and they are a misprint. You are right about those. I still think he deserves to start in Pawtucket.
Twitter: @Dan_Ventresca
by Dan Ventresca on Feb 12, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions
This is what I think will happen.
2011
Iglesias starts in Portland and gets a mid-season promotion to Pawtucket. Probably a callup when rosters expand.
Scutaro will be the starter for the whole season. I dont see him dropping off enough to have Lowrie become the starter (in Francona’s eyes).
Lowrie will be the super sub and will definitely hit against lefties, whether thats for Ortiz or Scoot remains to be seen. I think a little of both. I can see Lowrie getting the starter job only if Scoot drops his production to a Lugo level or gets hurt and Lowrie performs like he did last year.
2012
Iglesias starts in Pawtucket. Gets a call up due to injury or when rosters expand.
Lowrie becomes starter for the Red Sox (assuming he stays healthy for 2011)
Sox pick up the 3 million option on Scutaro and he becomes the super sub.
2013
This is when it gets tricky. If Lowrie is that .800 OPS guy with average defense, how does he not stay the starter? I can see Lowrie as a .800 OPS guy for a ceiling but I expect more of a .760 OPS (still not bad at all for SS).
But if Iglesias shows he can produce 30+ doubles, 10 homers, .300 avg, some plate discipline, and gold glove defense, how do the sox not promote him? I think Omar Vizquel is a good comparison, offensively and defensively, for his potential. Thats a tough thing to pass up.
Time will tell and its great that it seems like the Sox will finally have some stablility and production at the SS position. Its definitely a great problem to have.
I also forgot the option for 2013
of moving Lowrie to 3rd, Youk to 1st or DH and Iglesias starting at SS.
A lot of things have to play out a certain way for 2013. There are just way too many variables.
That's my general feeling
It’d be like if we suddenly had a great 2B prospect. It’s great and all to have but are we really going to bench Pedrioa? Good luck justifying that to the fans. I think Lowrie is our next great hitter, it’s only an opinion but if it’s even remotely true, you can’t really bench him for a player who shows equal value in a different realm of the position.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
In an ideal world where both Lowrie and Iglesias live up to their respective potentials
We move Lowrie to 3rd, and Youk to DH. Papi will be gone by then, one way or the other.
All I'm gonna say
is that there is absolutely no need to rush Iglesias. Let him develop.
He has the potential to be awesome…let’s let him get to it.
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The only reason to rush him: his contract (4 years/$8.25M) ... and that's a bad reason
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Feb 12, 2011 7:41 PM EST up reply actions
That is one thing I never understood
4 years. We don’t get a couple arb years or anything right? 4 years from the age of 19 to turn into a major leaguer that we would then have to sign to an extension if he is worth it.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I think that you still get the same control rights.
It’s just that they are immediately put on the 40-man roster, get paid significantly better (obviously), and they start using up options the moment they start playing in the major leagues. So they have to be in the majors within 4 (or 3?) years or they have to go through the regular waiver process to play in the minors.
Though I’m not sure. Someone correct me?
He was signed as an amateur free agent and is only under team control through 2013. Obviously, to make this kind of move, Theo has to believe that Iglesias was much more developed than the typical 20-year-old. I think his minor league development will be much quicker than average and he will start this year in Pawtucket and get promoted to Boston in September.
Twitter: @Dan_Ventresca
by Dan Ventresca on Feb 13, 2011 1:17 AM EST up reply actions
I don't believe this is correct.
ThePanda is right.
He is under contract through 2013, but we will control his rights past that. We still get 6 full MLB seasons of service time – though the salary has not been set for that time (just like any 1-6 yr player). This is always true unless the player and team agree to contract that away.
For example, we signed Hideki Okajima to a 2 yr deal with an option. We excercised the opiton and then STILL controlled his rights the next season (and going forward).
The real issue is he will be out of options by 2013 and will have to be on the major league roster. At that point he will be accruing service time. So from his and his agent’s standpoint he will then be getting a MLB salary. After three years of service time he will arb eligible.
Indeed
In fact, Oki was pissed at his agent because he thought he was going to free agency. Apparently, the guy dropped the ball or misrepresented himself, if I’m remembering this right.
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by Ben Buchanan on Feb 13, 2011 3:47 AM EST up reply actions
yeah most Japanese pitchers get a clause in their contract
that specifies that the team needs to release them after the agreed contract is up so that they aren’t under team control, but his agent didn’t do that one.
Those years aren't service time years. That's just his agreed salary for the first four seasons. They don't equate to years of control or MLB years.
We still get the right to control 6 years of MLB service time for him.
The issue is that he was immediately put on the 40 man (this is what a MLB contract means). Thus he was on “optional assignment” last year and burnt one of his three options. Assuming he doesn’t make it to the bigs sooner, he will be out of options and will have to remain on the 25 man active roster for the 2013 season and going forward from there.
If he spent all 3 option years in the minors (didn’t accrue any service time at all – never gets called up), he would be first eligible for arb in 2016 and first eligible for free agency following the 2018 season.
However we would also be able to keep him on that same schedule (and also avoid super 2 status for him – which would have caused his second full MLB season to be more expensive as an extra arb year) by delaying calling him up until say… late May/early June of the 2012 season.
actually he has 4 option years if I'm remembering right
if a player has less than 5 years in pro ball, the team gets a 4th option year. So he could potentially be in the minors through the entirety of this contract.
You are correct...
I thought this was so & thought I remembered reading it somewhere, but wasn’t 100% certain on him as an IFA, but I went back and checked it.
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