The Japan to MLB Transition... For Pitchers!
by Rogue Nine on Dec 8, 2011 10:01 PM EST
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PrintWith all this talk about Yu Darvish being posted, it seemed appropriate to take a look at previous Japanese league players and how their statistics translated to Major League ball. This may provide some insight into what we may expect from Darvish if the Sox were to end up winning his posting. I'll look at players that were posted or came over in free agency, but will eliminate those who I consider to have been prospects or in development still (like our own Tazawa). Also limiting this to starting pitchers only, I think the transition for relievers is a little different because the relief game is so different. I'll take a look (if I can find the data) at their last three years in Japan and compare it to the first three of their MLB careers, largely because those three years will have the most relevance to their MLB play and it would be enough to notice any trends. After three years, I think we can largely identify what we have in a player. I'll focus mostly on the rate stats rather than the counting ones. I won't be using any advanced stats, largely because I'm lazy and don't want to do them out by hand since I can't seem to find them already calculated elsewhere, so ERA and WHIP it is...
Last 3 years in the Japanese Pacific League:
2004: 2.90 ERA, 146 IP, 1.16 WHIP, 2.59 BB/9, 7.83 K/9
2005: 2.30 ERA, 215 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 2.05 BB/9, 9.46 K/9
2006: 2.13 ERA, 186 IP, 0.92 WHIP, 1.64 BB/9, 9.66 K/9
Averages: 2.40 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 2.05 BB/9, 9.09 K/9
First 3 in MLB:
2007: 4.40 ERA, 205 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 3.52 BB/9, 8.84 K/9
2008: 2.90 ERA, 168 IP, 1.32 WHIP, 5.05 BB/9, 8.27 K/9
2010: 4.69 ERA, 154 IP, 1.37 WHIP, 4.33 BB/9, 7.79 K/9
Averages: 4.01 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.24 BB/9, 8.35 K/9
Looking at Dice's last three years in Japan, and comparing them to what pitchers have done in MLB for the last three years, Dice's ERA and WHIP would have been best in the league, his BB and K rates would have both been in the top 10, putting him in line with the Halladays, Verlanders, Kershaws and Lincecum's of MLB. He was an excellent pitcher in Japan, in the three years leading up to his posting he was getting better in all the stats sampled here. It just never worked out, his ERA went up 67%, WHIP up 29%, his walk rate went up 107% and his K rate went down 8%. (note I removed his injury riddled 2009 and replaced it with 2010, in order to give a more meaningful sample.)
Last 3 years in Japanese Pacific League:
1992: 2.66 ERA, 217 IP, 1.23 WHIP, 4.86 BB/9, 9.47 K/9
1993: 3.70 ERA, 243 IP, 1.43 WHIP, 5.47 BB/9, 10.21 K/9
1994: 3.63 ERA, 114 IP, - WHIP, 6.79 BB/9, 9.95 K/9
Averages: 3.29 ERA, 1.34 WHIP (2 year), 5.50 BB/9, 9.88 K/9
First 3 years in MLB:
1995: 2.54 ERA, 191 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 3.67 BB/9, 11.10 K/9
1996: 3.19 ERA, 228 IP, 1.16 WHIP, 3.35 BB/9, 9.22 K/9
1997: 4.25 ERA, 207 IP, 1.37 WHIP, 3.99 BB/9, 10.11 K/9
Averages: 3.34 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 3.66 BB/9, 10.09 K/9
I really don't know what to buy in these Nomo stats, were his walk rates really that bad? If they were, was he really that unhittable that his WHIP rates were that reasonable? The data is really old so I do question the integrity somewhat. He was very erratic his entire career, the 3 year comparisons work out pretty well, the only noticeable difference if the plummeting of his walk rate from an obscene number to one that is merely very high. ERA up 2%, WHIP down 11%, BB rate down 33%, K rate up 2%.
Hideki Irabu:
Last 3 years in Japanese Pacific League:
1994: 3.04 ERA, 207 IP, 1.27 WHIP, 4.08 BB/9, 10.37 K/9
1995: 2.53 ERA, 203 IP, 1.13 WHIP, 3.19 BB/9, 10.60 K/9
1996: 2.40 ERA, 157 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 3.38 BB/9, 9.55 K/9
Averages: 2.68 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 3.57 BB/9, 10.22 K/9
First 3 years (2) in MLB:
1998: 4.06 ERA, 173 IP, 1.29 WHIP, 3.95 BB/9, 6.55 K/9
1999: 4.84 ERA, 169 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 2.44 BB/9, 7.07 K/9
Averages: 4.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 3.20 BB/9, 6.81 K/9
Those are Irabu's only two remotely full years in MLB, he never got over 60 innings in any of his other 4 years. He walked a lot in Japan but struck out a ton, that did not translate to MLB. His ERA wet up 66%, WHIP up 13%, BB rate down 15% and his K rate down 33%. Of course, bad seasons be damned the Yankees won 2 rings with him anyway, sort of like what we did with Dice, maybe that's the key, hope they bomb.
Masato Yoshii:
Last 3 years in Japanese Central League:
1995: 3.12 ERA, 147 IP, - WHIP, 2.38 BB/9, 5.56 K/9
1996: 3.24 ERA, 180 IP, - WHIP, 2.35 BB/9, 7.24 K/9
1997: 2.99 ERA, 174 IP, - WHIP, 2.48 BB/9, 5.37 K/9
Averages: 3.12 ERA, 2.40 BB/9, 6.10 K/9
First 3 in MLB:
1998: 3.93 ERA, 172 IP, 1.28 WHIP, 2.78 BB/9, 6.13 K/9
1999: 4.40 ERA, 174 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 3.00 BB/9, 5.43 K/9
2000: 5.86 ERA, 167 IP, 1.52 WHIP, 2.85 BB/9, 4.73 K/9
Averages: 4.72 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 2.88 BB/9, 5.44 K/9.
Yoshii apparently became very hittable once he came overseas, his peripherals worsened only slightly but his results changed quite a great deal, his ERA rose 51%, BB rate went up 20%, and his K rate went down 11%.
Kazuhisa Ishii:
Last 3 years in Japanese Central League:
1999: 4.80 ERA, 133 IP, 1.46 WHIP, 4.80 BB/9, 10.96 K/9
2000: 2.61 ERA, 183 IP, 1.15 WHIP, 3.59 BB/9, 10.33 K/9
2001: 3.39 ERA, 175 IP, 1.19 WHIP, 3.75 BB/9, 8.90 K/9
Averages: 3.48 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 3.97 BB/9, 9.99 K/9
First 3 in MLB:
2002: 4.27 ERA, 154 IP, 1.58 WHIP, 6.19 BB/9, 8.36 K/9
2003: 3.86 ERA, 147 IP, 1.56 WHIP, 6.18 BB/9, 8.57 K/9
2004: 4.71 ERA, 172 IP, 1.47 WHIP, 5.13 BB/9, 5.18 K/9
Averages: 4.30 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 5.80 BB/9, 7.27 K/9
Another starter with great K numbers and bad BB numbers that each got worse. ERA went up 24%, WHIP up 22%, BB rate up 46%, K rate down 27%.
Let's see, Kei Igawa reference here, was a starter but his 71.2 innings pitched really isn't enough for this study. His 6.66 career ML ERA says it all though.
Last 3 years in Japan Central League:
2005: 3.17 ERA, 213 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 1.78 BB/9, 6.98 K/9
2006: 1.85 ERA, 189 IP, 1.00 WHIP, 1.00 BB/9, 6.85 K/9
2007: 3.56 ERA, 180 IP, 1.21 WHIP, 2.10 BB/9, 6.16 K/9
Averages: 2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 1.63 BB/9, 6.68 K/9
First 3 in MLB:
2008: 3.73 ERA, 183 IP, 1.22 WHIP, 2.06 BB/9, 5.69 K/9
2009: 3.76 ERA, 117 IP, 1.14 WHIP, 1.84 BB/9, 6.67 K/9
2010: 3.39 ERA, 196 IP, 1.16 WHIP, 2.20 BB/9, 7.29 K/9
Averages: 3.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 2.06 BB/9, 6.55 K/9
Kuroda has been a very effective MLB pitcher with his great control. He saw a 26% rise in ERA, 8% rise in WHIP, his BB rate went up 26% and his K rate went down 2%. However, his Japan stats were so good, that even the rise in numbers still made a great pitcher.
Kenshin Kawakami would be next, but he only has 2 seasons under his belt and one of them was injury shortened, he isn't a success story though, seeing all his numbers go down significantly.
Through these starters we've seen that ERA goes up about 39%, WHIP goes up about 12%, BB rates tend to go up 25% and K rates go down 13%. However, given the sample size of stats I was looking for , the sample size of cases isn't very large (and is finite consider the low number of Japanese league starting pitchers who have made it over).
Now let's look at Yu Darvish and how he's done in recent years:
2009: 1.73 ERA, 182 IP, 0.90 WHIP, 2.23 BB/9, 8.26 K/9
2010: 1.78 ERA, 202 IP, 1.01 WHIP, 2.09 BB/9, 9.89 K/9
2011: 1.44 ERA, 232 IP, 0.82 WHIP, 1.40 BB/9, 10.71 K/9
Averages: 1.64 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 1.87 BB/9, 9.71 K/9
If you modify for MLB with the factors we've seen you get something like a 2.28 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 2.34 BB/9 and a 8.45 K/9. Which would be something very much like Beckett's 2011 season. His rapid improvement in just about everything is definitely a good sign, I'd say it's great if we hadn't seen Dice do the same thing. For comparison Dice might have been expected to put up a line of: 3.36 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 2.56 BB/9 and 7.91 K/9. I've been strongly against even thinking about posting for Darvish for a long time now, these projections push me a little towards the middle, the lesson of DiceK is still fresh though and it is impossible to project adaptation. My only other worry about Darvish is that he has a high workload on his arm in the last 3 years, in fact, more than any of these guys listed, Nomo is closest, short a couple dozen innings I believe.
Answer the poll and comment away, let me know if there are any glaring mistakes in here.
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Nice post. Rec'd it.
The biggest thing with Japanese pitchers is that they pitch up in the zone, and they get away with it. They blow away the hitters up in Japan, which, in the MLB, results in 1 of 2 things: solid contact or a ball. This is why you see higher BB rates and higher ERAs.
Also, pitchers are creatures of habit. In Japan, they pitch on 6 days rest-once a week-and throw 140-150 pitches per outing. This certainly affects them as well.
John Lackey: Boston hates you
I would imagine there would be an adjustment they would have to work through
with the size of the baseballs being different. I mean, even good pitchers will have days where they just can’t get the movement they want on offspeed pitches or can’t locate as well as they want to with baseballs that they’ve been using their whole life. I gotta imagine that the grip adjustments would play a part for some pitchers, at least.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 9, 2011 8:56 AM EST up reply actions
To be fair...
Your first paragraph, LesterJohn, applies to all minor league pitchers. You can get away with pitches up in the zone or even down the middle in, say, AA, that you can’t in the majors. That adjustment does make Darvish a risk, but no more of a risk than any other player coming up from the minors.
The different pitching schedule and differently sized baseballs, obviously, are more Japanese-specific challenges. I know Dice-K complained about the baseballs in his first season, though other Japanese imports have shown no adjustment period at all, so it can’t be a huge deal, I guess?
Every pitcher is different
And they throw different pitches and even though mechanics can be similar, they can also be different from pitcher to pitcher….other Japanese imports also may have had an issue with the baseballs but were able to deal with it quicker and/or were just not vocal about it.
I think with any change in routine, or any challenge in sports that comes up you have some players deal with it better than others. Especially something as touchy as trying to perfect the movement, placement, and consistency of different pitch types at the MLB level.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 9, 2011 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Big difference:
That adjustment does make Darvish a risk, but no more of a risk than any other player coming up from the minors.
Players coming up from the minors make league minimum. Darvish will cost a big posting fee and a multi-year contract.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
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Fair
but how much would you pay for a minor league pitcher who had five straight seasons with an era under 2, averaged mid-90s on his fastball, and just generally has some of the best stuff in the game? i’d pay a lot.
I dunno, to be honest.
It’s hard to say. I’d be really excited about him, there’s no doubt about that. Would I pay Dice-K money? Eeeeeeeeeee….I don’t know.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
HAHAHAHA!
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
that looks like mean, sarcastic laughter
but i don’t know why it would be.
Not sarcastic laughter.
Legit, man. Legit.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
one thing to note
this year, they switched to baseballs close to (but I think not exactly the same as) MLB balls. As a results of the bigger balls, from what I’ve been told, offense was down a ton this year.
Thanks for the insight
A look at the successes of RPs like Saito and Oki might add another dimension to such an analysis. There have certainly been success stories. Your #s say Darvish is likely to be one of them, even without considering his height, large hands for larger baseballs, age, English speaking parents(Go ’Noles), and other potentially contributing factors, including the Valentine effect.
Like you the deeper I consider it the more he seems to belong in a Sox uni:B
1. His annual contract would be similar to Daisuke’s and much less than CJ, Beuhrle, Lackey … Backloaded and affordable.
2. Henry & Co can afford the posting fee because it pays for itself with sales and marketing to the vast Asian market.
3. Darvish + the re-emergence Tazawa and Matsuzaka and Valentine, the Sox will have its best chance to dominate among Japanese fans for a decade.
5. As with Daisuke, the Sox become a magnate for top Japanese and Asian players.
6. With Bobby Valentine aboard for two or more years, this is a rare window of topportunity to gain that dominant position.
7. Best of all, the sox get at reasonable $$ (remember the posting fee is independent and is itself a profit center) a young stud who will make the rotation perhaps great but certainly better.
8. Daisuke, Taz, maybe Oki again will have comrades in arms and language, all pitchers.
Sorry for the long post. Increasingly it seems the Sox should use Valentine to tap into the Japanese players, fanbase, goodwill, and Darvish is the most direct route to this.
by GerryT on Dec 9, 2011 4:16 AM EST via mobile reply actions
I initially was going to do all players, then limited it to just pitchers, and then just starters
I think the starting game is such a different beast from the relief game.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I put "yes!"
because yes, I would absolutely bid on him. I don’t care how much they spend for the posting, so I didn’t put a limit. If they want to post $10 billion, then awesome, I hope he pitches well.
I tend to agree.
He’s a big name and the posting fee will likely get paid off in sustaining japanese revenues that might fall off with no Dice-K around.
I think Darvish has some advantages over other Japanese imports in that he’s spent a lot of time in the US already and there should not be as big of a language and cultural barrier, if any.
Plus his raw physicals look really really good.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
First of all, thanks
Thanks for putting this together, Rogue. I know you’ve been against signing him, but I like that you kept an open mind in your conclusion. I rec’d it.
Continuing our discussion from the other fanpost, your final line here about Darvish’s mileage is a little bit misleading. He may have thrown more innings in the past three years than other Japanese imports, but the mileage concerns for him are MUCH less alarming than they were for Dice-K. By focusing only on the past few years, you eliminate the extent to which Dice-K was overworked from a ridiculously young age:
Dice-K threw 180 pro-innings as an EIGHTEEN YEAR OLD ROOKIE and 340+ in his first two seasons. Then, in his third, he threw 240.1 innings! Importantly, the reason Darvish has thrown more innings than Dice-K in the three years prior to posting is that Dice-K had ALREADY broken down and had been dealing with injuries that limited his innings before he ever came here. We essentially paid $100 million for a ticking time bomb, and that’s what we got.
Anyway, I’ve been saying from the beginning that Darvish is the guy to spend money on this offseason, and I still think so…
And just to emphasize the difference in skill one last time:
Dice-K never had a season in Japan with an ERA under 2.00. Darvish has done it five straight times.
by Jake_W on Dec 9, 2011 9:19 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Post bid for 40 mil. just to see what happens .
If they win the bid , offer him a 7yr/60mil. deal . Keep annual salary down for first 4 seasons , backload last 3 seasons . After first 4 seasons , Lackey contract will be off the books , leaving money to cover the last 3 years with the backload .
Teams loading up for Playoffs.......
Look at Angels : Weaver , Harran , Wilson , Santana . You can no longer get by with just 3 top of rotation starters , esspecially if you are a wildcard team . You can get by with an average #5 starter , but with new playoff allignment , you need a solid #1 thru #4 . With Beckett , Lester , Buccholz , and Darvish , the Red Sox would not only be in better position to win the AL east , but would also be in better position to win the one game , wildcard play-in game , while still having 3 strong starters for the 5 game ALDS Playoffs .
First off great post.
I voted Yes, mainly bc the guy is 25, big, seems to have his head on straight and IMO will do better with a manager who understands how to motivate and teach Japanese players.
I also understand how much money the Red Sox could receive when they sign arguably the most popular athlete in Japan, a country with the 10th highest population in the world and a country that loves baseball.
If you could get an Ichiro type player on the pitching side
then you have to at least try
by BobZupcic on Dec 9, 2011 5:38 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
no no no no no no no no no no no
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Love the thread. Interesting to see the transition between the two.
I would say bid just to show that the Sox are there.
"Remember, it's not over until the fat lady drops one."
Bid 50 million.
At least. It doesn’t count against payroll, John Henry is a rich SOB and Darvish is a beast.
Great post - Rec'd
I’m glad someone finally took the time to do some research, rather than just let everyone assume that if Dice-K flopped all Japanese imports will flop. Looking at the numbers and understanding that this is a very small sample size, at least in number of pitchers, I feel like this is a chance we should definitely take. The posting fee makes it more palatable considering that it wouldn’t count against the luxury tax. I’d post 60 and offer a 4 yr 40 mill deal, if it looked like that might get it done.
Well
that will go down as a mistake in the Ben Cherrington admin., especially if he signs and dominates on the Blue Jays, Rangers or worst case scenario the MFY.
You are willing to dump money on has beens and over the hills like Oswalt but not a 25 year old power arm with 9 million fans. Pretty poor business decision.
I just don't fully believe that they didn't bid on him.
I’ll believe it when some actual facts come out.
IF he signs
which, the more I hear about him, the more it sounds increasingly unlikely. Oswalt is hardly a has been.
WHAT ABOUT
SAITO CAREER IP 352 WL 21-14 ERA 2.12
OHKAJIMA CAREER IP 246 WL 17-8 ERA 3.11
OTSUKA CAREER IP 232 WL 13-15 ERA 2.44
UEHERA CAREER IP 175 WL 5-9 ERA 3.13
THERE ARE OTHERS I CAN’T THINK OF. RP’S FROM JAPAN HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE AT THE MLB LEVEL. SHOULD BE A CHEAP SOURCE FOR RELIEF HELP.
Glad you were paying attention
Also limiting this to starting pitchers only, I think the transition for relievers is a little different because the relief game is so different.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
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