29 Trades to 29 Teams: Padres
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 30, 2011 11:15 PM EST
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PrintThis deal is (surprisingly) not going to include Chase Headley.
The Sox have a need, but not a whole hell of a lot of money to spend. That need is starting pitching. The Padres don't have a lot of money, and they're blowing their team up so that they can start again in the future. That is why they should trade their starting pitcher Tim Stauffer to Boston for SS Jose Iglesias, and OF Alex Hassan.
Why the Sox should do this: Tim Stauffer is nothing special. He put up exactly one win above replacement level last year. He's got a 75% LOB, a .282 BABIP, a 3.71 xFIP. Stauffer is average, average, average. He gets just over 50% ground balls, and his FB% hangs around 30. But the cool thing about Stauffer is that because he is so decidedly average, he made about $1 million last year, and in his second arbitration hearing he'll probably make something like $1.5 million. Bringing in such an average pitcher on such a low salary means that we have money to spend elsewhere. He's a hole filler for nothing money and nothing prospects. Iglesias is never going to hit above AAA in the Boston system, he's not even hitting at AAA now, his glove plays better in Petco because they care more about run prevention than run scoring. Hassan is a nice-ish piece, but does anybody see him leapfrogging Kalish, Sweeny, and Lin? We send those two to San Deigo, and open up a 40 man roster spot. We also spend negligible money, add a solid #5 starter, and have some cash to make a run at Oswalt, Kuroda, or Maholm.
Why the Padres should do this: The Padres have more time to let Iglesias figure out if he can hit the ball, both Jason Bartlett and Orlando Hudson are signed through 2012 with options for 2013. If Iglesias shows signs of picking up, they potentially have Omar Vizquel ready to replace Bartlett in 2013. Alex Hassan exactly fits the Petco Park offensive profile, he gets on base a whole hell of a lot, but power really isn't part of his game. Low OBP, high power players don't make a whole lot of sense in Petco, but Hassan's .400+ OBP does. Hassan is a decent player who could become part of an intriguing outfield with Cameron Maybin in the coming years. The last reason the Padres should do this is that they aren't looking to contend in the two years that Stauffer has left with them, and if they can get these two pieces in Hassan and Iglesias, it would be worth the loss of a decidedly average pitcher.
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It's not a bad trade
I would tend to think, since Headley has supposedly gotten a lot of interest, that they could probably get that kind of value for Headley alone, but may be wrong about that.
Stauffer is projected to make $3 million this year, but that’s a fairly minor point
The trade in this post is for Stauffer alone, it assumes we haven't traded Youkilis for Marcum
$3 million is still a small enough number that it shouldn’t effect us being able to go get an Oswalt or a Kuroda, while Stauffer still gives us more value than we got from the back of the rotation all of 2011.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 31, 2011 2:13 AM EST up reply actions
That's a fair excuse.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 31, 2011 3:02 AM EST up reply actions
Indeed it is.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I wouldn't do this
Iglesias is really young for his level, that’s why he can’t hit now. If we do this it will come back to bite us.
by Bososx13 on Dec 31, 2011 8:01 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
I disagree, I think Theo broke him by putting him in AAA so soon
He’ll never be the starting SS for the Sox, but with a change of scenery he could perform for another team. It might look like it bites us in the ass if he succeeds, but I feel there’s a negligible chance of him ever being the player we thought he was in Boston.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 31, 2011 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
Iglesias was definitely rushed along by both the Sox and the fans
His main knock when he first came over was his bat. He hasn’t shown anything yet. It’s not like he had a bat, and then it dropped off because he was rushed.
To say that his being rushed is why he can’t hit is flawed logic. We have no reason to believe he can hit.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Bloggy, what do you think of my trade?
If I get the Canadian vote, I’ll be happy.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 31, 2011 11:26 AM EST up reply actions
Well, firstly, I'm impressed in your restraint in not putting Headley in this deal somewhere.
But, yeah, I’m okay with it. I don’t really see Iglesias having much of a future with the Sox, to be frank. I know his glove is a vacuum, but if he can’t hit the ball, he’s not long for the Sox. It’s too bad, actually, because I personally had some hope for him.
I’m okay with Hassan going, too. I’m not huge on prospects and the like, but he sounds like a player we’d flip eventually anyhow. If he fits the Padres’ needs and can get us something we need now…then we pull the trigger.
The idea of having a decent, if not overwhelming, and consistent guy at the end of our rotation…that sounds lovely to me.
Wow…how my expectations have changed.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I honestly don't know Stauffer that well
his groundball % makes me think he’d have good away-from-Petco skills, but in practice, it looks like he pitches a lot better there than elsewhere. Any idea where that is? May just be a statistical blip since his career isn’t that long- weirdly, he gives up more fly balls on the road than at home, which makes me think he isn’t trying to be too cautious about homers away from home.
and the other question
I see his IP are all over the place and he missed 2008- what’s his injury history like?
Not very good
he had major shoulder surgery that made him miss 2008, but by all reports he’s finally fully healthy and should be good for 160-180 innings next year.
As for his away from Petco-ness. I think it’s sort of like Bailey, he pitches better there because it’s his home field. He’s got a decent xFIP, which I think takes into account the fact that he plays in SD.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 31, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
Problem is that Iglesias has much more upside than Stauffer does
Stauffer is as you said, nothing more than a warm body.
Shortstop offense across MLB is so pathetic right now that the bar is set incredibly low. Alcides Escobar, one of the top prospects sent to KC for Greinke, is a fair comp for Iglesias at this point. He hit .254/.290/.343 last year with 4 HR. I’m fairly sure by wRC+ he was one of the 5 worst full time players in all of MLB with the bat. He was still worth 2.2 WAR thanks to his defense which was very good (+5 DRS, 10.2 UZR) but not out of your mind spectacular. Iglesias’s defense is by all accounts, spectacular, and he is still young for his minor league level.
Defensively he should easily at least match (if not surpass) the bar set by Escobar unless he somehow forgets how to field on an MLB infield. Offensively, he still has time on his “prospect clock” until he can be written off as a bust at the plate. He is certainly inching uncomfortably close to that but considering he would be a sell-low trade chip and bring little in value back, it’s better to hold on to him. All he has to do is reach the incredibly low offensive bar set by Escobar and with his defense he’s probably a 3 win shortshop for the league minimum.
"We’re the Sox. Not Apple Sox. We ain’t no Barbeque Sox. We’re the Red Sox.’’ - David Ortiz
*shortstop
"We’re the Sox. Not Apple Sox. We ain’t no Barbeque Sox. We’re the Red Sox.’’ - David Ortiz
I don't think he's ever going to do anything in Boston.
I think he was broken by being brought up to AAA far too early, and even if he does manage to make it in the bigs, it won’t be with the Sox.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 31, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions
I would say trade him,
but then we’re left with exactly zero options for the SS position beyond this year. Just saying.
It wouldn't be particularly hard to say we have 0 options beyond this year with Iglesias here.
I don’t think it would be hard to retain Scoot, Punto or Aviles if need be also.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
This.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I don't count any of those 3 you listed
as SS options for beyond this year.
All three of them are better than Iglesias.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
Assuming healthy, average seasons from them
I’d take any one of them over Jose from what we’ve seen from him so far.
We are a team with no current long term, decently high probability plan at SS. Bogaerts, Coyle, Checchini, Tejeda, none of them project to end up at SS I believe. Jose to me is nothing more than a pipe dream, I think there is only a very small chance he actually hits enough to make it worth playing him. I figure him to turn in a bunch of 1-2 WAR seasons and then maybe some year he gets a ton of BABIP help and posts a 5 or 6, much like Vizquel’s career path.
If we wait another year, I think he only becomes less valuable of an asset. His ceiling as plunged for two straight years now.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I just really don't think Aviles or Punto
are full-time players. A platoon wouldn’t be much better
Iglesias is less than a full time player, he's barely AA-worthy and is a broken prospect.
He needs to start over somewhere else, and if we can get something in return for him that helps the 2012 team, then it should happen.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
That's the problem.
They probably can’t get anything that helps the team with Iglesias, unless there’s a sucker who believes they can fix him.
Tony Reagins was employed as a GM for 5 years
There is a sucker in baseball who believes they can fix him somewhere.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
They'd probably put in the same work
The difference is that they have no trade value, Iglesias, somewhere does.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
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