29 Trades for 29 Teams: Cubs

by Rogue Nine on Dec 30, 2011 8:39 PM EST

I'm going to chose to trade with the Cubs. Which is a little bit of a cop out because it's a 100% certainty that a transaction is made with the Cubs between now and the end of the world. Of course I'm talking about Theo Epstein who we've already made half a trade with, the Cubs got him. We haven't gotten anything in return, yet.

Of course no set of GM and team president is as familiar with our system as Jed and Theo are, heck, they may be more familiar with it than our current regime, so it isn't outlandish to believe they may be our best trading partners in baseball going forward, in the same way that we only let Jed Hoyer go to San Diego in the first place so we could get Adrian Gonzalez. (speculation).

In this spirit I believe that we let Theo go to Chicago for the sole purpose of bringing us Matt Garza, who is rumored to be available.

Red Sox get: Matt Garza

Cubs get: Pres Theo Epstein, 1B/3B Kevin Youkilis, RHP Brandon Workman, OF Henry Ramos

Why the Sox would do this: Well we HAVE to receive something from them for one, also we NEED starting pitching. Garza is good, AL East experienced, and with two years of control left, albeit not cheap control because of the aforementioned good. Youkilis is getting a little older and hasn't seen the field as much as any of us may like. Between Punto and Aviles they can form one adequate 3B (Punto has a good UZR there over after 292 games of experience) while we figure out what Middlebrooks is going to be.

Why the Cubs would do this: Well they HAVE to give something for Theo for one, they also need a first or third baseman, which is where Youkilis comes in. Getting him would eliminate their need for an expensive Fielder, who's better suited for an AL team with an eventual opening at DH anyway. Youk may hold up better at 1B, if he plays more time there he's way more valuable than his contract. Workman gives them a guy who looks like he may develop into a work horse, not an ace, but someone who is going to eat a lot of innings for you with decent results, he would slip well into the top of their organization. In Ramos they may get the heir apparent to Soriano in left field or a flop, he's a high ceiling sort of prospect. They also get someone they already have in Theo Epstein.

So please sound off on this. Does it make sense, or does it further confirm your fears that I'm just insane, either because it's way too much, or way too little?

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I think it's too little.

Theo is in “full rebuilding mode”, and so Youkilis really does nothing for him. Additionally, given the incredible packages that good starting pitchers like Mat Latos, Trevor Cahill, and Gio Gonzales have demanded, I do not think the Cubs would accept a package where Ramos and Workman are the best young talent you’d give up.

Youkilis is a fairly expensive, old, and injured 1B/3B who will not help the Cubs in two to three years, when they might be expected to contend again. He’s still a good player, but he’s not what Chicago needs right now, and he’s not nearly enough for a pitcher of Garza’s caliber, who is also under control for another 2 years – even factoring in the compensation aspect of the deal.

by Sologub on Dec 30, 2011 9:00 PM EST reply actions

I tend to think

That Fielder isn’t the 1B of their dreams, he just happens to be the one here now and what will he be in 2 or 3 years? Youkilis gives them time to figure it out while providing great value. I think playing the other side (coincidentally the name of The Roots track I’m currently digging), might be better for his health. He’s still a great player who is certainly capable of putting up the 3 WAR needed to make him ‘worth it’. He’s been overlooked his whole career by just about everyone, moreso with Gonzo in Boston, but Theo knows what he is, a huge impact offensive player when healthy (which the move may help with).

I figure Theo to be worth a prospect worth somewhere in the 8-12 ranking range of a system, I think that was what our expected return should have been, so Youkilis a excellent defensive 1B and an excellent offensive weapon for 2 years, an 8-12 range prospect in Theo, a high ceiling OF prospect and a workhorse pitching prospect for 2 years of a great pitcher.

Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"

by Rogue Nine on Dec 30, 2011 9:39 PM EST up reply actions

But still,

the Reds gave up a ML ready First baseman with a high offensive ceiling, a starting pitcher who has shown flashes of brilliance, a high-ceiling catcher, and a reliever who posted a 2.00 ERA in AA. We give up Youk, a pitcher who is way behind the age curve yet still didn’t impress in low-A, and an OF who had a very mediocre season, even considering that he’s ahead of the age curve. I’m not really seeing it, unless we throw in Boegarts or Middlebrooks.

John Lackey: Boston hates you

by LesterJohn on Dec 31, 2011 12:07 AM EST up reply actions

I definitely think Youk is still a good to great player.

But I just don’t see why he’d be good for a rebuilding Cubs squad, considering that the 3-4 WAR would just push them from mediocrity to more, slightly more appealing mediocrity. I think Theo would be more interested in a WMB type than a Youk type.

by Sologub on Dec 31, 2011 11:52 AM EST up reply actions

I agree, re: Youkilis

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
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by Bloggy on Dec 31, 2011 11:08 AM EST up reply actions

I think, in all likelihood

They would prefer an additional two or three decent prospects instead of Youk. Maybe another pitcher and a second baseman (Tejada? Coyle?).

by Fromalabama on Dec 31, 2011 1:13 AM EST reply actions

I was torn, I almost did that instead

But we have so little at the top (making me hesitant to trade them) that picking our prospects below A-ball is just absolute guess work. There is a heaping pile of talent down there that I’m really excited about but there is no way to know which of the mess is going to end up being good. I think we have at minimum two IF, two OF and a pitcher in system who are destined to be great players, but we won’t know them for two more years.

Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"

by Rogue Nine on Dec 31, 2011 1:27 AM EST up reply actions

I tend to agree that you're underpaying, especially where they're interested

If I were Theo, I’d think I was better off signing someone like Derrek Lee (nice story to bring him back) or Carlos Pena for first and trade Garza for Guys that would be there when the team was contending. Based on what has been traded for Gonzalez/Cahill, I’d also be asking for a whole lot more than you’re offering.

I’d do it in a heartbeat from the Red Sox perspective.

by wolf9309 on Dec 31, 2011 1:48 AM EST reply actions

Ultimately, I think if there is one team that would be able to underpay relative to other teams, it's us.

Between what they owe us for Theo and what Theo knows, it gives us the edge. Is Theo going to opt for Henry Ramos, a prospect he knows well, drafted and signed himself, or some high ceiling OF he hasn’t seen before?

I think that he knows exactly what he is getting from us makes it a little cheaper, because other teams have to make up for the lack of knowledge and make a pitch, we don’t have to make a pitch, we just say, Ramos? No, well how about Kendrick? Yes? Awesome.

Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"

by Rogue Nine on Dec 31, 2011 1:57 AM EST up reply actions

yeah but

in my head, Garza is at least as valuable as Gio Gonzalez in a trade. They managed to get 4 prospects, all of which were way more valuable than either of those guys, and I don’t see Youk as being that valuable to the Cubs.

I do agree that there’s a possible advantage in that Theo might value our prospects differently than everyone else

by wolf9309 on Dec 31, 2011 2:40 AM EST up reply actions

I think Youk could be even more valuable to the Cubs

To the right team, Youk has as much, if not more value than Garza. Any team in need of a first baseman that doesn’t want to shell out for Fielder is going to want Youkilis. He’s got a bat that’s only a couple ticks down from Prince, and is making almost half of what Fielder is looking for. Theo could turn around and flip Youk to the Nationals, Blue Jays or Marlins for better prospects than he could have gotten for Garza. Basically, he sells his good player for a good player and two prospects, then turns around and sells that second good player for even more prospects. Sort of like what Anthropolous did with Edwin Jackson.

You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash

by TheLoneDavid on Dec 31, 2011 3:07 AM EST up reply actions

Yes

by GerryT on Dec 31, 2011 3:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions

well, of the teams you mentioned,

Only the Marlins really have a possible need for a first baseman now (and that’s depending on how much of an upgrade over Sanchez (Obviously he’s a much better hitter if they think he could stay healthy), and their farm system isn’t exactly brimming with talent. The Cubs, Nationals, and Blue Jays all have interest in Fielder, but that’s less to compete in 2012 than it is for the future, when Youk is probably not close to as good an option as Fielder.

by wolf9309 on Dec 31, 2011 9:24 AM EST up reply actions

Then how about the Rangers, who could use an upgrade from Moreland at first?

Acquiring Youkilis keeps them firmly ahead of the Angels after their offseason.

by TheLoneDavid on Dec 31, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions

yup, they'd make a lot of sense

by wolf9309 on Dec 31, 2011 11:51 AM EST up reply actions

I wouldn't feel comfortable

With trading away Youkilis before Middlebrooks is ready. This could be a potential trading deadline move, but under the new CBA, I doubt it.

Check out my blog at http://conor-soxrox.blogspot.com

by Conor Duffy on Dec 31, 2011 7:14 AM EST reply actions

My guess

Probably take Ranaudo, Cecchini and ?Chris Hernandez?/ Britton?.

by royredd87 on Dec 31, 2011 9:09 AM EST up reply actions

I think Aviles and Punto together, can form one adequate third baseman until Middlebrooks is ready.

Punto has a 19.0 UZR/150 I believe there, with over 200 games experience. Defensively I think we’d be fine, of course it would hurt the offense some but with the difference between Youk and Garza’s contract, that could allow us to either upgrade 3B or upgrade RF if we needed to.

Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"

by Rogue Nine on Dec 31, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions

Cubs

The only way getting Youk makes sense for the Cubs is if they keep Garza and sign Fielder. This fanbase should not have to put up with another rebuilding process. Youk will be good for at least two years,at 3rd, and Fielder for many. Fielder is a game changer that would recharge the team and fans. At his age, he is worth what ever it takes. Garza is a cornerstone pitcher. T0 trade Youk, the Sox should get Sean Marshall, and Reed Johnson,with Johnson being the compensation for Theo.. Marshall gives the Sox a power left arm in the pen,(ERA 2.29) while Johnson is an ideal 4th outfielder who can hit LFhanders. Sox pen: Meloncan,Bailey, Aceves,Marshall, Morales,and Doubront. To replace Marshall, Theo signs Ryan Madson. To replace Johnson, he signs Andrue Jones,bringing much needed power to Wrigley. They should also bring back Fukodome for depth. If they can’t sign Fielder, then Carlos Pena will do. To complete the rotation, they bring in Kuroda. Rotation: Garza,Dempster, Zambrano and Kuroda. Outfield: Soriano/Fukodome, Byrd, Dejesus/Jones.Both Jones and Dejesus can play center if needed. Infield: Fielder, Barney, Castro Youk and Soto. If they wanted to maximize Soriano’s value, they would move him to 2nd , where he actually becomes an asset. Put Barney on the bench and use Fukodome in left,while using Jeff Baker as a platoon partner. The Sox now have Johnson in RF with Sweeney. Together, they will put up good numbers. The acquisition of Marshall allows the Sox to use Bard as the 4th starter,without the pen taking a hit. If that doesn’t work, Bard goes back to an already impressive pen,and Doubront will go from the pen to the rotation. The Sox will sign Wilson Betimet to platoon with Aviles.This team has a real shot. The Cubs have a very decent shot at the division if they use Soriano at 2nd.

by Robert57 on Dec 31, 2011 10:29 AM EST reply actions

Marshall was already traded to the Reds.

by TheLoneDavid on Dec 31, 2011 10:38 AM EST up reply actions

This offseason plan is filled with so many holes I don't know where to begin.

by TheLoneDavid on Dec 31, 2011 10:39 AM EST up reply actions

So what you really mean

Is the Cubs should fire Theo/Hoyer and bring back Jim Hendry, right?

Hi ho, Duke!

by The Duke of Silver on Dec 31, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions

Even Hendry's not that dumb

This is Bill Bavasi idiocy.

by TheLoneDavid on Dec 31, 2011 1:56 PM EST up reply actions

as a cubs fan i feel compelled to ask "wat"

Just wee-un.

by jesus christos on Dec 31, 2011 2:05 PM EST up reply actions

Ignore him

As a Cubs fan, what did you think of the trade Rogue Nine posted?

by TheLoneDavid on Dec 31, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions

i really don't see why the cubs would want youk as i think fielder or rizzo will end up playing 1b

and i don’t know much about other team’s farm systems to really have an opinion on workman or ramos, though glancing at the numbers of ramos i can say that the cubs have a surplus of players that don’t like to walk

Just wee-un.

by jesus christos on Dec 31, 2011 2:46 PM EST up reply actions

Ramos is one of those projectable kids.

He’s 19 and only now filling out his frame, his real ability won’t be seen until he develops power, with the longball come the walks.

As for Fielder, is he really the best option? He’s going to cost a crapton and is probably going to get better offers from AL teams who think they may need a DH in a couple years. Youk doesn’t really cost much more than Pena did and is a better player over all.

Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"

by Rogue Nine on Dec 31, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

i would only sign fielder if he was willing to sign for 6 years max

as for youk i don’t jedstein would take him since getting him would lessen the amount of prospects coming back, and that’s a waste on a rebuilding team when you can go dumpster diving for guys like lee, kotchman etc

Just wee-un.

by jesus christos on Dec 31, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions

Great userpic.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Dec 31, 2011 4:19 PM EST up reply actions

All

prospects are projectable. Many get projected,out of the game.

by Robert57 on Jan 3, 2012 6:34 PM EST up reply actions

This is what I think

Alot of Cubs fans would think.

by The Name is Dalton on Jan 1, 2012 12:18 AM EST up reply actions

YOU THINK

Cub fans, after 100 years of losing would like to see their new GM go bottom fishing? Right. Cub fans would hate to see their team make a committment to winning by signing someone like Fielder? I’ll bet my house that there are 30 million Cub fans that would think signing Fielder would be a great idea,and that trying to make the best use of a payroll albatross (Soriano) would be a good idea, as well. Even Bill James would put Sori on 2nd.

by Robert57 on Jan 3, 2012 6:32 PM EST up reply actions

I'll take that bet

I doubt there are even 30 million Cubs fans to begin with.

by TheLoneDavid on Jan 3, 2012 7:23 PM EST up reply actions

Ha ha....

Sweet deal if it’s a nice house.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Jan 4, 2012 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

Even Bill James would put Sori on 2nd

No he wouldn’t. Soriano wasn’t a good defender at 2B when he played there half a decade ago. He does more damage at 2B than he does in LF.

by The Name is Dalton on Jan 4, 2012 12:00 PM EST up reply actions

Cub Fan

You don’t want any of those players mentioned? What is your ideal plan?

by Robert57 on Jan 3, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions

- Soriano isn’t an asset at 2B because he can’t PLAY 2B even remotely well. He has played 3 and 2/3 innings there in the last FIVE years. Please reread that last sentence.
- Marshall was traded to the Reds
- Jones signed with the Yankees

The Cubs have a very decent shot at the division if they use Soriano at 2nd.

Come on man. This has no truth to it.

by The Name is Dalton on Jan 1, 2012 12:36 AM EST up reply actions

I FEAR YOUR WALL OF TEXT

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Jan 1, 2012 6:42 AM EST up reply actions

This does nothing for the Cubs.

Garza for Youkilis is a lateral move for them. The Cubs are not going to be that good over the next couple of years, so the point of trading Garza is to get someone who could be good for them two years from now. Youkilis will not be playing for them two years from now.

They would much rather get prospects for him, and they could expect a package similar to what they gave up for him. We’d likely have to give up something along the lines of Cecchini, Renaudo, and Jacobs.

by abbreviatedman on Dec 31, 2011 10:30 AM EST reply actions

As he said further in the comments

the idea may be more of move Youkilis for prospects they’d want, and then move those to the Cubs. Which makes a lot more sense. I’m guessing that based on Youk’s recent history, we’d need to offer more in the way of prospects, but it’s an idea that might be on track.

If we had Garza, I’d be OK with Aviles being our third baseman to start the year.

by wolf9309 on Dec 31, 2011 11:53 AM EST up reply actions

It makes sense if it was a three team deal

But if it was two separate deals then they would take the risk of what teams would offer for Youkilis. They KNOW what they can get for Garza and they know what teams might want him.

Either way, the quality of prospects would probably have to be higher…that you are correct about.

by The Name is Dalton on Jan 1, 2012 12:27 AM EST up reply actions

ABBMAN

Teams have been known to go from worst to first from one year to the next. The ’91 Braves and Twins, for one example. With Ramarez gone, they need a 3rd base guy with some pop. Youk can do that. A guy like Fielder makes their entire lineup better. Most Cub fans are unlikely to respond well to another rebuilding process.

by Robert57 on Jan 3, 2012 6:44 PM EST up reply actions