2011 Red Sox Community Projections: Josh Beckett, Ace

by Ben Buchanan on Dec 30, 2011 9:00 AM EST

From just about the beginning of the season, Josh Beckett was his old self, shutting down opposing lineups from April until August. And if it hadn't been for that pesky, injured September, then we may have ended the season on a much different note.

So it is that the bizarre case of Josh Beckett's even year off, odd year on performances continues. And since 2010 was by far the worst season of his career in terms of results, perhaps it makes sense that 2011 was his best?

No, not really. And the idea didn't really occur to too many of you out there either, which is probably to all your credit.

Still, plenty expected the trend to continue, producing perhaps the most wide-ranging set of projections I've seen yet.

2011	IP	Wins	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
Josh Beckett	193	13	2.89	1.03	8.16	2.42	3.57

Username	Inning Pitched	Wins	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	FIP
BoldandBrash	190	14	4.30	1.27	7.77	2.20	4.00
ThePanda	175	13	4.00	1.25	8.00	2.50
RSNexile	180	13	3.85	1.25	8.25	2.70	3.90
Buccaz	168.2	11	4.27	1.31	8.08	2.47
Dsharp	132	7	5.11	1.39	7.20	2.80	4.56
Jason A	213	22	2.95	1.25	8.20	2.30	3.15
Nuthinboutnuthin	172	14	3.96	1.32	8.31	2.71	3.44
AlohaSox	191	15	3.98	1.19	8.20	2.30	3.75
Remembering9ergods	204	17	3.78	1.20	8.10	2.60	3.40
Brogshan	193	15	3.62	1.29	8.23	2.46	3.88
Drabidea	178	15	3.75	1.28	8.25	2.50	3.70
Justin_Bobo	185	14	3.95	1.30	8.15	2.60
Totheeights	187	18	3.16	1.09	8.00	2.50	3.66
Steve Boyle	178	15	4.15	1.24	8.35	2.48
Kgtruth345	209	18	3.29	1.11	9.00	2.00
Gizmosandy	145	6	5.90	1.45	5.50	3.80
Tarrsk	165	10	4.26	1.29	8.33	2.65	4.01
Sologub	176	13	3.78	1.24	9.00	2.33	3.89
GroundRuleTriple90	160	10	4.31	1.30	7.80	2.70
Theartolater		19	3.45	1.19	8.40	1.20	3.99
Westcoastredsox		16	3.86	1.30	8.31	2.90	3.50
Mattsullivan	180	14	3.85	1.22	7.96	3.12	3.56
Alfredo	166	15	3.43	1.24	7.76	2.68
Rogue Nine	208	18	3.78	1.20	8.50	2.10	3.50
Sean O	142	6	5.32	1.40	7.80	2.90
Royredd87	202	19	3.75	1.30	7.20	3.00

So not a ton of color here, unsurprisingly. Jason A is technically a bit further off on ERA than typically gets"recognition," but given how he was the only one within 25 points...Still, if there's one winner, it's Brogshan, who hit the nail on the head in innings pitched and came close on the walk rate.

Now, if only it were 2013 coming up instead of 2012.

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Comments

I think I wrote that I suspected he was still injured.

Glad I was wrong about that.

I wonder how he’ll do this year if Tek isn’t there to catch him, though. Should be an interesting spring for Josh.

by dsharp on Dec 30, 2011 9:35 AM EST reply actions

Sweet

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by brogshan on Dec 30, 2011 10:37 AM EST reply actions

Woo hoo!

I got two yellows! If it hadn’t been for Brogshan being two innings closer (and dead on), I might have actually won one!

Frankly, I’m just happy to see some color in my row for a change.

I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.

Wait ’til next year!

by AlohaSox on Dec 30, 2011 11:48 AM EST reply actions

Heh, Sean O always puts his money where his mouth is.

You gotta admire that.

by Sologub on Dec 30, 2011 11:55 AM EST reply actions

Just change 2011 to 2012?

by Sean O on Dec 30, 2011 12:51 PM EST via Android app up reply actions

Heh, this prediction really puts the lie to your contention on "odd/even year Beckett"

You just think he sucks, period! Well, we all know you think that, so it’s not really a big revelation.

by Sologub on Dec 30, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions

Incorrect

I expect him to suck in odd years, I know he will suck in even years.

by Sean O on Dec 30, 2011 3:46 PM EST via Android app up reply actions

well you just don't like him

so that makes some sense

by BobZupcic on Dec 30, 2011 5:58 PM EST up reply actions

Exactly

by Sean O on Dec 30, 2011 8:05 PM EST up reply actions

Here is why Beckett does BAD this year

1) He is not getting younger at 31 years old.
2) In the last two years combined, he is 19-13 and a ERA of 4.34
3) Has not thrown for over 200 innings in 2 years

by JAAJ on Dec 30, 2011 2:41 PM EST reply actions

a) none of those things identify a bad pitcher
b) his ERA the last two years was 4.04, not 4.34

by wolf9309 on Dec 30, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

I look at this title and it says that Beckett is gonna be an ace...

1) an average of 9.5 W and 6.5 L does not count you as an ace!
2) The older you get, you dont get better,
3) With an ERA over of 4, it still is not good

by JAAJ on Dec 30, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions