Pre-Winter Meetings Warm-Up
Baseball's winter meetings are going to kick off next week, meaning that the Red Sox are likely to start getting busy. The manager search and poor end to the season have made many fans antsy, but typically, Boston gets moving on their transactions after arbitration and during the meetings, since they know who will cost them draft picks, and what direction the market is heading in. This year is no different, as the Sox have yet to do anything besides let Jonathan Papelbon cash really big checks in Philadelphia.
Ben Cherington admittedly likes to work slow, but it's in order to be thorough, so we shouldn't be surprised that the Red Sox are once again taking it easy until the real off-season gets going in the meetings in Dallas. Boston has plenty to do there, but don't expect any major moves: Cherington continues to repeat that they have a lot of great players already, and need complementary pieces more than a splash.
In no particular order, this is what the Red Sox will likely focus on during the meetings:
The DH Situation, Or, What About David Ortiz: Ortiz is seeking a three-year contract, but that is likely just a ploy by his agent to make sure the slugger gets two years rather than one. No one else out there has as obvious a need for Ortiz as Boston, and out of those who do have the need, they don't necessarily have the space or the money to pull him from the city he made his name in.
There is also no major rush, as the Red Sox have supposedly made an offer (or at least let Ortiz know what they are thinking), and Ortiz has expressed his interest in allowing Boston to match any other offers he might receive. Ortiz is the key to the off-season in a way, though, as signing him means they can move on to their other areas of need. Ortiz means no Carlos Beltran, for instance, and means that acquiring an expensive pitcher via trade might be tough to do. If Ortiz does walk -- it's unexpected, but it could happen -- then all of a sudden there is more room for a right field upgrade, or maybe financial room for a starter from a team looking to get out from under a contract.
The Rotation, And The Rotation Again: With both John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Red Sox are in need of two starters. Whether those come internally (Alfredo Aceves, Daniel Bard) or externally is not known as of yet, but the chances that both Aceves and Bard move to the rotation after Jonathan Papelbon left it are slim. We'll have more on whether or not Bard can succeed as a starter or not next week, but for now, the focus is on who they can bring in.
C.J. Wilson isn't happening -- nor should it -- and no one knows if Yu Darvish is going to post. Plus, he would qualify as a big signing. Then there is Edwin Jackson, who, by nature of the market being thin, is going to rich more for his timing than his quality. Instead, the focus is going to be on buy-low candidates like Chris Capuano, Paul Maholm, Bartolo Colon, or Erik Bedard. (All four of these pitchers were featured in "Bargain Bin Starting Pitcher Bazaar" at Baseball Nation, penned by someone you've read before.)
The Papelbon-less Bullpen: The Red Sox have a stocked bullpen in terms of personnel, but if Bard goes to the rotation, they will be needing another impact reliever. Even with what they have, the Red Sox might not be comfortable with Matt Albers, Kyle Weiland, and Felix Doubront as important pen pieces, meaning another reliever might be necessary anyway.
Papelbon's production doesn't need to be replicated exactly, but those innings do need to be replaced. In theory, the reliever market was a buyer's one before the Papelbon contract, so the Red Sox should be able to sign a few useful arms without spending huge money on them. It's likely we'll get a sense of just where the reliever market is now that both Papelbon and Heath Bell are off of the board.
Josh Reddick/Ryan Kalish's Co-Star In Right: Regardless of which of these two is the starting right fielder on Opening Day, they are going to be in need of a platoon mate that can hit lefties. This option likely doesn't exist within the organization, and Darnell McDonald doesn't necessarily mash them (or field well enough, or run particularly well). I don't have a vote, but were I able to cast one, it would be for Scott Hairston. Cody Ross is the more popular option, but Hairston will be cheaper, and has an 813 OPS against left-handers in his career, despite spending almost all of it in extreme pitcher-friendly parks. Like Ross, he can play center in a pinch, too, meaning that if Jacoby Ellsbury needs a day off, Hairston can hop in, rather than McDonald. You don't want him in center, but for a day off, he can handle it.
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Bard
What is all the talk about moving him to the rotation? The only reason he came up as a reliever is because he was horrendous as a starter back in AA. I don’t see how anyone expects a move back to the rotation to work.
by The Burning Scheyer Jersey on Dec 2, 2011 1:23 PM EST reply actions
Few things
The front office is only going to move him if they think he can do it, obviously. But he’s a different pitcher than when he failed as a starter in Triple-A, in terms of stuff, approach, mechanics, experience, etc. And if he can give you value out of the rotation as the fourth starter, that’s worth more than 60-70 frames out of the pen. Especially in this starter’s market.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 2, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
I guess my biggest problem is that I've felt he's lacked the durability for the 60-70 innings out of the pen he's gotten.
Seems to me his last two Septembers have been lackluster. I’m not convinced he can handle a starter’s work load.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
and, as many people have pointed out,
if, in order to get those extra innings, his fastball velocity drops to around 94, he’s a much less effective pitcher.
Zero indication he would even be passable
In the rotation.
by Sean O on Dec 2, 2011 9:07 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
This
I swear, if Bard goes to the rotation, it is proof that the Red Sox FO hates me and wants me angry.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
by Bloggy on Dec 3, 2011 8:54 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
fwiw
The front office is only going to move him if they think he can do it, obviously. But he’s a different pitcher than when he failed as a starter in Triple-A, in terms of stuff, approach, mechanics, experience, etc.
Bard never started in AAA Pawtucket. His last starts came in Lancaster, California where the ball flew out of the park like My Favorite Martian. (Lars loved it. It’s where he became a sensation). Bard’s FIP as a starter in Lancaster ’07 was 8.98, ERA 10.13, BB/9 14.85, and WHIP of 3.23.
Bullpen.
"8.98, ERA 10.13, BB/9 14.85, and WHIP of 3.23"
See Lackey, John.
Tampa Bay Rays Championships: Still Zero
"Playoffs?!? Don't talk about playoffs! Are you kidding me? I just hope we can win a game!"
- Jim Mora, seeing through space and time to describe the 2011 Boston Red Sox
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 4, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
"fwiw"
What it’s worth is plenty. Stop with the “Bard to the rotation” talk. It’s nonsense, everybody.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I'm trying to think of why I even wrote Triple-A
When my intention was just “minors”
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 5, 2011 9:51 AM EST up reply actions
Starter's Worth
I have said this before.It’s about wins and losses ,not not about how many bucks a pitcher makes per inning. It is which inning or innings they pitch. That’s why Papelbon is worth what he gets. If his presence insures 38 wins out of 40 innings pitched, by working a clean ninth inning,that is worth it. What starter is going to win 38 games?
Papelbon didn't win those 38 games
he didn’t win any of them. He’s a reliever pitching in a media-created high-pressure role. He’s a fake asset.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
You honestly don't think that's a high-pressure role?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
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OTM | Silver Seven
It's high pressure
But I think that the purported mental fortitude required for the role is overblown.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Not as much as some would have you believe
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I mean
I think being a starting pitcher is high pressure, 6 innings of varying leverage situations compounds quite a bit, being a bullpen fireman is high pressure, getting rid of whatever mess the previous pitcher put their team in. A 3 run lead in the 8th is still pretty high pressure.
I think the number of people qualified to be a closer in the major leagues is actually quite a large pool of people.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Not nearly as high-pressure as it's made out to be
If you’re only up by a run then yeah, it’s intense, but when you get most of your saves when you’re up by three it’s not really a big deal.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
While I also want Hairston
he is absolutely horrendous in Right, which mean’s he’s more of Crawford’s co-pilot than Reddick’s
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Really?
I’ve watched a ton of Hairston, given my Padres’ love, and he’s pretty underrated as a fielder, though not spectacular or anything. Gets the job done.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 2, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
In right of course, in left and center he's either average or slightly below average.
And I also have Padres love.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
In ~100 innings
Not really meaningful when you consider his strong numbers in LF and CF. Likely just needs a ST to get used to things. He’s got the defensive knack needed.
Over the Monster -- SB Nation's Resident Red Sox Site
USG
I could have sworn it was more than that. (goes to Fangraphs)
Huh, that was a big oversight on my part. Yeah, sign him and have him start ST in right field, see what happens.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Capuano's gone to the Dodgers.
But I agree with you on the approach of the Red Sox in terms of the SP market. I think the trickiest is situation is Ortiz. Most of Red Sox Nation want him back, but if he comes back, can they still make a trade for one of the starters that teams are looking for salary relief by trading them?
What starters?
Wandy Rodriguez? Zambrano (OMG!)? I don’t buy the Garza rumors, and I can’t think of many good “salary relief” type of starters avaialble outside of Rodriquez.
John Danks is one, his contract is up at the end of the year and he won't sign a extension.
Gio Gonzalez isnt in his last year of his deal, but he’s about to hit arbtration which means his salary will go up. Jurrjens is another. There are a bunch of starters that could be had for the right price.
those are all good choices
but I’m not sure if the teams will be trading them for salary relief, per se- they’ll be happy to get rid of the salary if they can get good player value in exchange for them
If KW isn't looking for a Grienke-type return for Danks he could probably be had.
I don’t want to give up a Gonzalez-esque package for him, but I can’t think of many guys in the minors I’d be heartbroken to see go.
Unfortunately, I think we held onto Iglesias for too long and his trade value is nil. Instead of essentially throwing him headfirst at a brick wall in AAA I’d put him back in A ball and see what happens, confidence be damned.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
I didn't mean salary relief in terms of they'll be cheap.
With Danks, it really doesn’t sound he’ll sign a contract extension with the White Sox, so they might be willing to take a little less in terms of prospects so they get something for him before they leave. With Gio, I think they hold on to him this year because he’s still somewhat affordable to the A’s. My main point was the FA pitching class behind Wilson, Buerhle, Jackson, and Darvish (if posted) is crap. I think the smartest route for the Sox to go is the trade route, but that’s certainly complicated by Papi. If he accepts arbitration, which he probably won’t, the Sox don’t have a lot of flexibility salary wise. If he signs on to a multi-year, that hurts, but not as much as arbitration. If you trade for a pitcher in his last year, you’d probably have to sign him to an extension, but they can get around that simialrly(sp) to the same way they did with Gonzo.
Glad to see Capuano’s gone. One less bad pitcher for the Sox to sign. I love the way the word “depth” is used as a good thing. Wakefield provided depth, and he was awful, as usual. Picking up bargain bin pitchers is not going to win you anything. Look at Andrew Miller last year. He was awful, as he always has been. Bedard is the only one I would take a chance on. He has proven to be an excelent pitcher when healthy.The fact that he is LH would make him more valuble when facing lineups like the Yankees. The premise that you can only get Beltran if Papi leaves is preposterous.They can use the money paid to Drew for Beltran.Who gives you a better chance of winning. Beltran or Reddick? It’s no contest, if your team is serious about winning. Resign Bedard. Then you will have a decent 4 man staff. Don’t use the trash bin for the 5th starter. Get creative and get Gio Gonzalez or Garza. Be ready to sacrifice Bard,Lowrie,Reddick Kalish or Dubount to to bring a quality starter. They still need to sign a closer. F-Rod is still out there. They could also use Darrin Oliver in the pen. Win this year, and let the future take care of itself.
F-Rod = K-Rod?
No thanks. I, and most, would certainly rather Bard than K-Rod. He’s cheaper. He’s more effective. He’s less crazy. I don’t want K-Rod anywhere near my team. My lasting memory of him as it pertains to the Red Sox is Manny launching that mooshot. That’s the way I wanna keep it.
I agree that we should give serious consideration to Beltran. As management has stated, this is not a re-building team, it is built to win now. Beltran could be a piece to help us do that. I’d like to have a RH bat in there. That said, offence wasn’t our problem last year…so I don’t think Beltran is a necessity. If it comes down to it, money spent on Beltran is better used getting pitching…somewhere.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
We're a win now team?
Jesus christ, that is tragic. A win-now team should have a pitching staff, no?
by Sean O on Dec 3, 2011 9:53 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
How'd we win 90 games and were one win away from being in the playoffs?
If we suck so much?
by aubatron2011 on Dec 3, 2011 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
You still have to have some pitching to win 90 games.
You can’t slug your way to wins in every game. I do agree the Sox are thin in the rotation, but I would say that it’s not as bad as continue to think. And the off-season hasn’t ended yet, it’s really just beginning. None of the top starting pitchers have signed.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 4, 2011 12:25 AM EST up reply actions
This is the situation we are in, unfortunately.
Theo has made some huge errors that have put us in a bad spot. John Lackey being first and foremost, of course. That said, I’m not sure what the band-aid is for that in the here and now.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Insurance
Don’t forget,most of Lackey’s salary should be paid from insurance,giving the Sox that much more revenue.
It's quite possible
That they couldn’t obtain insurance on his elbow, or that it was rediculously expensive and they went without it. It’s a pre-existing condition that directly relates the piece of his body that he would be putting a ton of stress on thousands and thousands of times while knowing it was partially damaged.
It is probably more likely that you are correct and they DID insure it. But insurance of this kind has risen in cost over the years, from what I understand.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 5, 2011 9:05 AM EST up reply actions
But I don't think that's this year
only in the final year of his contract. Do I have that right?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
different things
we know that there is an option in his contract for a 5th year at major league minimum which becomes available to the team because of his surgery. We don’t know anything about whether they could/couldn’t get insurance or how much.
We know that the option brings down his AAV, but we don’t know how much of the money he was actually owed this year they have to pay.
Gotcha. Thanks.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
K-Rod
Sorry about that,but how can you believe Bard would be a better choice then a tested closer like K-Rod? None of us has any idea if Bard will be effective in any role again,since his meltdown in Sept. Chances are,he will be effective again,if left alone as a setup man. IMO, the Angels made a huge mistake letting K-Rod go in the first place.
Bard isn't a god
But he certainly has the capability to be an excellent closer. He had a bad month, just like the rest of the team, but overall he was lights out. But whether he’s the closer or the stopper, I have confidence in him…in as much as I have confidence in anyone. So long as he ain’t in the rotation.
K-Rod? K-Rod’s best days are behind him and he’s a headcase. He’s the last thing this team needs.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
well depends on the amount of money he's looking for
I’d rather, for example, pay $12 million to a starter and have Bard close than pay $12 million to K-Rod and have Bard start.
The notion of not getting Beltran if Papi re-signed is not perpoosterous.
Because this team has a budget. If Papi re-signs that’s probably 12-14 million dollars out of the budget for this offseason. Beltran will want $15 or $16 million on his contract, and that would essentially dry up the budget so the Sox can’t sign anybody else.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 3, 2011 11:06 AM EST up reply actions
And if it comes down to it
I want Papi over Beltran.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Dont you think Beltran can produce
the same output as Papi as a DH?
I love Papi, but if Beltran can produce close to Papi’s numbers and also play the field, doesnt that make him a better option?
If you look at it strictly that way, maybe.
But I don’t look at things strictly that way.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Notion
If they are not cutting payroll, they should have 30 million left over,if Ortiz leaves. That’s plenty of money to make smart aquisitions. Beltran won’t get 15 or 16 mill. More like 10 per year on a two year contract.
Beltran will get more than 10 per year.
Because his agent is Scott Boras. The guy always gets a lot more than people think for his clients.
They can use the money paid to Drew for Beltran.
I believe that money is “earmarked” for Gonzo’s big raise. Or Ellsbury’s arbitration. If they keep spending at similar levels to previous years they don’t have a lot to play with. I believe wolf made a post about this, if I recall it came out to about $15M. I’d imagine they can stretch it a bit. I’d rather have Ortiz back than Beltran which is a solid chunk of that. The offense was great last year, keep it as it was. Reddick is fine in RF, the offense was in the top tier last season, and they carried a lack of production from LF, RF, C and SS for periods of time. I really don’t care about adding a RH bat, people thought we would be overloaded with lefties last year and it clearly wasn’t a detriment, I think adding one for the sake of adding one just isn’t a great idea.
We need pitching, but we don’t have a lot of money for pitching. Which really only provides us with the bargain bin. I’d sign Bedard and then a couple more Capuano types and hope we hit gold like the Yankees did. This team needs depth, Wakefield was depth last year that ended up being used and he should’t have been. We’ve had a lot of injuries and we don’t know if we should expect that to continue (though if Bedard stays it almost certainly will). We went through so many options last year, Capuano was probably better than most of them, I’d have taken him over Wakefield, Weiland, or Miller for example.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Wakefield
This was another bad move from Tito @ Theo last spring,suggesting that Wakefield be brought North. Wakefield was kept,while Aceves and Hill were wasted in the minors for a month and a half. It’s those kind of judgements made by T@T,that cost the Sox in the end. I am so glad they are gone.
It was ultimately Sept that cost them
Sure winning another game in the first month would have gotten them the playoffs, but that’s no guarantee that September wouldn’t have happened, there was a huge problem with the team, whether we made the playoffs or not.
As for the pen, I’m not sure Wake had much of an impact on Hill. Hill was being looked at more of a LOOGY. I think it was Okajima that was taking his place. And Okajima was probably the right choice there. As for Aceves, he was up on April 8th, not sure what your gripe is there.
It came down to that we had a lot of bullpen arms and a lot of varying contracts, we’ve had problems with depth before and they wanted to keep as many of their arms as possible. Which was good because we needed that depth when we lost Jenks, Reyes, Okajima, Wheeler and Hill for various periods of time. If they could be stashed in the minors, they had to be at the start of the season.
Plus if I recall, Beckett was having some problem with his back before the start of the season, they needed to bring some insurance along, and at that point I’m not sure anyone thought Aceves was going to be as good as he ended up being, he hadn’t yet become that long man/spot starter.
Why Hill and Aceves were in the minors is very reasonable, they’re only bad moves in hindsight because of what they ended up being, but at the time there was plenty of logic and reason in them. It’s like if Tito had benched Pedey his rookie year, it would have been the wrong move, but no one could blame him because Pedey simply wasn’t performing.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Yes, They Can
This is a huge market team that can afford the 2nd highest payroll.Signing Ortiz should have no effect on other players the bring in.We are not the Pirates.(who are not a small mkt team either,they just use it as an excuse to field bad teams)
If spending money won championships.
Don’t you think Yankees would win he WS every year?
by aubatron2011 on Dec 4, 2011 11:46 AM EST up reply actions
Check W/L records
I don’t have the exact number,but the Yankees have won more games then the Sox,or anyone else in this century. They finish 1st in the division most every year,and have let weaker teams beat them in the playoffs, for some reason. That they have won only one title in this century, doesnt mean teams should cut corners.
It's about WS titles, not division titles.
I could care less how the Red Sox get into the playoffs, anything can happen in the playoffs. The Yankees don’t let teams beat them in the playoffs.
And how many more WS have they won than us?
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
In this century it's 2-1 Sox.
My point is not saying spending doesn’t help teams win, it does but it helps more in the regular season than in the post-season. The post season is a total crapshoot. Nobody thought the Cardinals would win the WS this year, and they had the same record in the regular season as the Red Sox. I do think the Red Sox will spend some money this off-season, but not as much as Robert wants them to spend.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 5, 2011 11:30 AM EST up reply actions
Exactly
You want a team that can make the playoffs, after that it really doesn’t matter a whole lot. Great for the Yankees that they win a lot of regular season games, I’d have to imagine that their ratio of regular season games won to world series won this century is smaller than a lot of other teams’.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Well, let's be fair here
The Yankees have been in three world series since 2001, the Sox have been in two. Yeah, we won our two, but they made it more often.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Did you miss the context?
It’s about trashing the Yankees, I’ll give you a day to revise your comment to step in line, something like “yeah the Yankees blow” would be acceptable.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
we've won 100% of the world series' we've been in since 1987!!!!!
who else can say that?
also, yeah, the Yankees blow!
See TLD?
Was it so hard to make a comment like this? wolf gets a gold star for the day. Collect 10 and you can trade them in for a Matchbox car… I apologize, the reward for gold stars hasn’t gone up at all since I was potty trained.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I hate the Yankees as much as the next red-blooded american
But to say we’re better because we won two world series and they’ve only won one isn’t really true, they’ve been to three, we’ve been to two.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 6, 2011 11:59 AM EST up reply actions
It isn't monopoly money, there is a budget
Lately that budget has been around $165M, a number without Ortiz we are pretty close to considering the contract raises and arbitration raises this team is set to get. Signing Ortiz, or signing a big name pitcher will hugely reduce our ability to keep or sign the other.
As the FO said earlier, whether or not we sign Ortiz has a huge impact on RF. If they sign him, they won’t have the money to get a high power RF, if he moves on, they would.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
No matter how you slice it, they will have at least 18 million left over from last years payroll.30,if ortiz goes. They have an obligation to the fans and the players to at least maintain their payroll.
Yeah, so the Sox can't go spending willy nilly.
They have to spend wisely. Not bring in every big FA.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 5, 2011 10:01 AM EST up reply actions
Here is a great article that breaks it down:
http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/extras/extra_bases/2011/12/how_much_money.html
Looking at closer to $20 after arb raises. Needing a DH, at least 2 SPs and a couple bullpen arms, RF for me isn’t as important as these. Ortiz would be a big chunk of that money, maybe leaving only $8M for other signings.
They will very likely maintain their payroll, they just don’t have a lot of flexibility with it, it might depend on what sort of insurance they have on Lackey and Dice.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Which means the concept of
moving Bard or Acevas to the rotation and signing Bedard as #4 are excellent options. This leaves Doubront, Tazawa, Wilson, Matsuzaka, maybe Miller and someone like Kazmir as rotation depth. This leaves one of Bard or Acevas in a strong Pen needing only one or two from a large, reasonably priced group of closer/reliever FA’s.
When Bard has worse numbers than Andrew Miller in the rotation I'll remember this post and every one like it saying "move Bard to the rotation."
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 2, 2011 3:54 PM EST up reply actions 3 recs
completely agree
Bard is a reliever, maybe a closer. If you put him in the rotation you have a good chance of screwing up both Bard and the rotation.
Yeah...there is just no evidence to support this as a good idea.
It makes me crazy in my head.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Why Have I Read Kazmir Twice in Two Days?
Scott Kazmir will never throw a major league pitch again in his life. Never. I’m personally expecting Aceves in the rotation and hoping, praying, and foolishly wishing, and know it will likely go unrewarded, that Justin Masterson is reacquired from Cleveland.
by Christopher B on Dec 3, 2011 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
People forget that the Angels threw money and players at
Kazmir and it ended horribly for the Angels. I would be surprised if I ever see Kazmir in a rotation again.
Masterson
What a shame they let him go for a player they had no intentions of keeping. Beckert,Masterson,Lester and Buckholz would make a nice staff.
Dude, it was well worth it
for a year and a half of V-Mart. Nobody thought that was a bad deal at the time.
I was actually more upset we included Hagadone than I was about Masterson.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
I definitely was upset when Masterson was let go.
But I get emotional attachments, and Masterson was one of them. V-Mart was great, though. I don’t regret the trade.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Dude
It would have been worth it if they had kept him.
yeah in hindsight
but there wasn’t really legit reason to believe that he’d be as good as he’s become. VMart gave the team a huge boost and really improved the chances of a world series berth in both 2009 and 2010- just because they happened to crap out both times doesn’t mean that it wasn’t a good decision at the time.
Oh, by the way
B-U-C-H-H-O-L-Z for fuck’s sake. He’s been with the team for six years now, it’s not like he’s old news, learn how to spell his damn name.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Please,Not Them
Gerry. What makes you think Tazawa will be effective in Boston.? Miller should be left in AAA or released. Kasmir should not be playing at all, and probably won’t. Filling out your staff with mediocre pitchers is not how you get to the WS.,
How about Magglio Ordonez
as a reclomendation project. He should come pretty cheap, always mashes lefties, and puts up good numbers at Fenway. He fielding isn’t geat but we are talking about a platoon player.
Reclomendation?
Huh? I guess you meant reclamation. Reclamation generally implies that the guy still has a lot of career left and all of a sudden just forgot how to be a good player. See: Andrew Miller, Scott Kazmir, etc. Mags is alright, but I don’t see him as much of an upgrade over McDonald
John Lackey: Boston hates you
Kazmir is ridiculously broken
I would rather throw money at Webb and Duchscherer
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 3, 2011 12:45 AM EST up reply actions
Isn't it true that the posting fee
for Japanese players doesnt count against payroll or luxury tax? If so, especially with BV’s outstanding credentials and skills in this regard, and that a back loaded contract would not be a burden (see Daisuke), Darvish may be the most cost effective way to get another top starter. I cant see Cuddyer not finishing his career with the Twins. They need and want him back. So your idea of a platoon of Hairston/Ross with Reddick makes a lot of sense. This leaves depth as well as $$ for good RP.
It's not my money
But i’d rather not have the sox waste dough on posting fees after the matsuzaka mess. I’d rather the sox use money for paying a luxury tax (if the right player/s cause/s the sox to go over) than send heaps of money to the seibum lions to negotiate a contract with some player with good stats in a league of substandard talent (relative to the majors).
by Florida Johnny on Dec 3, 2011 3:30 AM EST up reply actions
And yes I realize that Cespedes is this type of player
But there’s no posting fee and I was hoping for him to defect since I saw him in the WBC. Plus we need a right handed outfielder (who can play the position everyday if we sign Ortiz). It’s like fate. We also don’t need Cespedes to start in the majors immediately.
by Florida Johnny on Dec 3, 2011 3:33 AM EST up reply actions
Darvish would be a ridiculous, gigantic posting fee
and then a ridiculous, gigantic contract. I have no interest in paying $25-30m a year for an unproven-in-MLB pitcher.
Scouts have been wrong in the past
and will be wrong in the future.
Ok so use whatever method you wish
but ill stick with the professionals who say he is the 2nd best pitcher available behind CJ Wilson.
I'm not saying he's going to be good or bad.
I’m just saying thats scouts aren’t perfect.
well your comment wasn't really relevant to the post you were responding to...
Sean and BZ didn’t say that he’s sure to be bad… BZ was just saying that no one gets $25-30 million/year
I was responding to SoxAcumen
Who said “Thats not what the scouts say.” Not responding to Bob or Sean.
They need to fix the response feature on these blogs.
What would you think about Hiroki Kuroda? He’s now open to playing for the Sox and any other team, according to sources.
and he has said repeatedly
that he does not want to pitch on the East Coast, it would double his trip home to Japan and he wants no part of that.
His wife and kids live in California and the kids go to school there
"We’re the Sox. Not Apple Sox. We ain’t no Barbeque Sox. We’re the Red Sox.’’ - David Ortiz
reportedly has said he is open to offers from any team, regardless of location recently
which may just be a bargaining ploy, but is worth inquiring about.
Bobby V
Funny how the hiring of V changed Kuroda’s mind about signing wth Boston.
Actually, he said he'd be willing to sign most anywhere.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I didnt think he was serious
I mean did you seriously mean to state that Darvish would command more in salary than CC Sabathia?
Really?
Scouts say he is legit and is the 2nd best pitcher on the market. SO whatever the market dictates is his price…
If you dont believe his talent is at that level, you dont post…
BTW, for all the anti-posting people, are you suggesting the Red Sox dont sign anyone from Texas ever again? I mean with all the money wasted on Lackey, no Texans might be in order as well. Slippery slop gets very slippery.
It's not a slippery slope (or a slippery slop for that matter).
The doubt cast on Darvish has nothing to do with geography (as your silly Lackey comp does). It’s about context – the culture, the league, the competition…
Lackey was from Texas, yes, good for him, but he also came up through college and the minors. Both are known environments, where there can be true evaluation done. We can look at the results, compare them to the leagues at those times, and actually learn something from them.
Whereas with Darvish, it is largely guesswork. We have only a handful of Japanese imports to begin with (small sample size), and the results are pretty all over the place. Very few have succeeded, and of the rest who have failed, it’s hard to know why. Was it the change of leagues? Different workout routines? New players, parks, etc to adapt to? Were the players just not that good to begin with? There are way too many unknowns to draw any conclusions.
So don’t compare the Yarvish situation to Lackey’s, just to try and prove a point. It’s lazy. You either believe what scouts are saying about Darvish or you don’t (I’m in the latter for the record); but in the end, it is a total crapshoot about whether or not he will succeed.
Yet Darvish is unlike any pitcher we've ever seen from Japan
He’s got a 6’5 pitchers frame, throws a hard fastball and changes speeds very well, has less mileage on his arm than Matsuzaka (his career high for IP is 207), and he’s dominated to a tune that Dice-K never even approached. 3 straight sub 2.00 ERA seasons with a 5.8 H/9IP.
If you ever take a chance on a Japanese pitcher then Darvish is you’re safest bet.
Darvish is worth a look. A serious look.
But your “safest bet” isn’t necessarily a safe bet. Just a little safer than the other unsafe bets.
If Darvish is going to command a LOT of money, then he is worth a pass from the Red Sox. Until we know that pitchers can fully make the transition, we aren’t in a position to make another “big splash” commitment that has a good chance to not pan out.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I would agree
I’m not advocating for or against Darvish. If the FO has the money (which by all accounts, they don’t) to spend then I don’t see the issue, I just wouldn’t be betting the house on him to become an ace.
The ball size issue is interesting. I wonder if guys like Dice-K trained beforehand with the larger ball.
Since so much of pitching is based on grip
I can’t see how the size of the ball wouldn’t be an issue. Hitting, much less so, but pitching? HUGE adjustment, I would think.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
A lot of my doubts on Darvish
Aren’t on his ability. It’s on his mentality. Without being clairvoyant there is no way to know how he would handle the transition. A lot of the things you just said about Darvish were things people said about Dice, how he was the best pitcher to come out of Japan ever, was a workhorse, etc. His talent may not have been accurately reported, but I think it was his mentality that did him in, I don’t think he ever really adjusted to being here, there is no way to know if Darvish will either.
With MLB free agents at least, you have a fair amount of knowledge on their mentality and ability to to adjust, there are some miscalculations here and there (Lackey, Crawford, for example) but mostly they are reliable compared to what you know about them.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
My thought
is that the problem has much to do with the difference in baseball size.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Nobody expected a $50m posting fee for Matsuzaka
and Darvish is better than he ever was. I don’t see 75-100m being out of the question, and that’s not counting the money that would get him to leave his home country to play. We invested over $100m into Matsuzaka, and look how that turned out.
With Bobby V. being signed
I would expect the Red Sox to be one of the two teams (cough Yankees) putting up big money for Darvish.
As I said in another post Valentine LOVES Darvish, thinks he is the second coming and if he has any influence, the Sox will be in on him. I would expect them to be in on Iwakuma as well.
I also expect Dice-K to miraculously get healthy and and reappear by the All-star break with Bobby V. as the manager.
I should hope that after Matsuzaka
we would be the last team to throw big money at someone who needs to transition to MLB. It’s foolish and way too high risk.
Agreed
And I also take issue with the notion that Bobby V’s signing automatically means the Sox start bringing in Japanese players. Sure, it probably helps the FO’s chances of a signing a Darvish, if they wanted to, because of Valentine’s history over there.
But I seriously doubt that he’s just walking in the door and opening a magical pipeline into Japan.
bedard and either oswolt or darvish, plus aceves as i believe the sox should go with a six man rotation.
bard as closer. the real question is not who replaces papelbon’s spot— it is who replaces bard’s. my hope is that it is tazawa.
papi is going to be the dh.
reddick finished higher in war (1.9) last year than ross (.9), hairston (.3) and ichiro (.2), is seven years younger than ross, and, most importantly, is one of our guys. after a collapse that saw everyone pointing out every little chemistry issue in the clubhouse, i am surprised that no one points to the great relationship between ells, lowrie and reddick… you know that little jump into each other after one of them gets the final out of an inning?
another point that gets downplayed is the vaunted al east market. when we are scouting a player it is fair to ask if they can play in an environment where every home game is like a playoff game and against the toughest competition in baseball. why gloss that over when we have someone who has proved that they can do it? here is a fangraphs link to reddick:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3892&position=OF
and here is one to another of our favorite sons, kevin youkilis:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1935&position=1B/3B
their first years (’04 and ’11) are pretty close. reddick slugged higher with a higher avg but walked less.
start reddick, back him up with kalish, brentz, jacobs, bradley, hassan, et. al. one thing we do have is outfield depth and it would do nothing but serve us to audition that depth.
yeah.
based on what has been written, kalish is every bit the equal in not better than reddick. it seems wisest to me to keep it simple— we already have these players, why trade for a player that may or may not be better than what we already have?
i wouldn’t mind cuddyer or swisher, though.
Ross/Hairston/whoever else wouldn't be replacing Reddick
They’d be brought in as the 4th outfielder, similar to Darnell McDonald but much, much better.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
So you're not comparing Ross's .9 WAR to Reddick, you're comparing it to McDonald's .2 WAR
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
What?
Just a year ago Theo Epstein said that he was the top prospect in the system.
Simply mentioning Kalish in this post
has shattered 8 bones in his body, putting him on the bench for 6-10 weeks. He is made of glass.
Oh ok,
but you do think he’s good I assume.
So you can predict the future now?
I thought you said you weren’t gonna be a Red Sox fan or something, didn’t you?
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by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 4, 2011 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
No, little girl,
But if you wish to catalog my every word, I wanted them to dump tito and theo.
by Sean O on Dec 4, 2011 4:46 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
wow you were right on something
you must be so proud
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by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 4, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
Between injuries
Maybe he will produce for us, but it is foolish to count on him for anything other than a dl spot.
by Sean O on Dec 4, 2011 4:44 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Why?
All of a sudden he sucks?
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by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 4, 2011 10:42 AM EST up reply actions
bomb
I am curious, why the 6 man rotation? To accommodate Darvish?
The guy the Sox should be looking at is Norichika Aoki, lefthanded lead off man with speed, plays all OF positions and is called Ichiro-lite in Japan. I think the Sox could get him for cheap and fill the last OF spot with a veteran hitter who can steal 30-40 bags and play solid in the OF.
i like your thinking. i saw him, too.
not to accommodate darvish, though. we have fallen apart in the last month the past few years finishing 10th, 11th, and last in the last few years. i think this speaks to work load. if we reduce the number of innings pitched over the year and spread out the time between starts we may be better prepared for the whole season.
both the yankees and rays used six man rotations last year.
well they didn't use 6 man rotations through the entire year, just some spot starts and some guys repalcing injured guys
there’s almost no one that actually makes it through 162 games with just 5 guys starting
Don't think it's happened
since the 2003 Ms did it.
by abbreviatedman on Dec 3, 2011 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
they were close, but no
that was my first thought to, so I had to check. a couple by BK, one by Abe Alvarez, and Pedro Astacio. There’s a reason we’ve wiped those games from our collective heads.
I disagree with this.
both the yankees and rays used six man rotations last year.
Neither of those teams did that, really for any length of time. Both teams got 148 starts out of 162 games from their top 5 guys. Niemann missed part of the year, which is why they got starts from other guys. He pitched 3 games over all of May & June…and still had 23 starts. Hughes made 14 starts and for a month or two the Yankees did more of a six-man rotation…but their guys stayed healthy despite pitching alot of innings.
The top five (in terms of most starts) for the Red Sox was 126 out of 162 games, and had one of the least cumulative amount of innings among any other starting pitching staff. When you consider that Dice-K was originally our fifth starter, our opening day rotation only started 110 games. These guys didn’t suffer from overuse, they put lead-off guys consistently on base and did not go far enough into games which taxed our bullpen. We were extremely lucky to have a guy like Aceves who literally said after going a couple of days in a row in September…“If I wake up tomorrow I will be ready to pitch”.
A pitchers pitch limit per game isn’t going to change in a six-man rotation.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 5, 2011 9:46 AM EST up reply actions
From Ken Rosenthal about Darvish:
"The player, I am told, is very quirky with a huge ego. Apparently, he will feel disrespected if the post is less than Matsuzaka’s was with Boston," the scout said. The hold up is the fact that the club and player haven’t agreed on what the posting fee should be.
I'm guessing he's in for a huge disappointment then.
Because I doubt anyone throws Daisuke money out there.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
I'm not looking for another prima donna
If this is a true measure of his personality…PASS THANKS.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Not interested
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by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 4, 2011 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
He sounds like the Japanese version of Manny Ramirez.
And we all know how that ended.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 4, 2011 12:54 PM EST up reply actions
Igawa was a what, $50M investment?
I’m not sure Taro is suggesting quite a commitment.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Kuroda is good option for sox?
I think he will prefer only one year deal in this offseason.
and He will go back japan next year.
http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2011/12/04/this-time-the-interest-is-mutual-between-hiroki-kuroda-and-the-red-sox/
I'd be okay with Kuroda for limited number of years.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Kuroda for a two year or one year deal would be good.
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by Marisa Ingemi on Dec 4, 2011 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
This one may be better article.
Because he uses the Average Annual Value salaries and adds Player Benefit.
SAD FACE
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Wow, Marlins and Reyes have agreed to a six-year, $106MM deal.
So does Hanley move to 3B? or is he available?
Hanley to 3rd
Until Reyes has an injury and is out for the season
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 4, 2011 11:26 PM EST up reply actions
Wow.
Can’t believe that went through. I figured someone else would throw more money at him.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 5, 2011 9:54 AM EST up reply actions

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