Jed Lowrie, Kyle Weiland Traded for Mark Melancon
Ken Rosenthal reports on Twitter that the Red Sox have traded Jed Lowrie and Kyle Weiland for Astros' reliever Mark Melancon.
This trade comes as something of a surprise, in the sense that Weiland was expected to be leaned on by Boston in their depleted bullpen. Melancon can do the same, though, has more of a history of big league success, and also costs peanuts -- he is under team control for another five seasons, as he has just over one year of service time.
You might be wondering why the Red Sox couldn't get more for Jed Lowrie, but let's separate what we think Lowrie can do from what he's done for a minute. Lowrie has a bat that could be special at shortstop, but he also has a penchant for injury -- and for taking forever to heal from those injuries -- and isn't going to be confused for a good defensive player anytime soon. His health and fielding -- as well as his platoon splits that make him more valuable against lefties than righties -- make him more a useful complementary piece than a starter. Were he healthy, it would be a different story, but a lack of health has been the excuse for Lowrie for years now. In addition, the Red Sox already have Marco Scutaro at short, and Mike Aviles provides the lefty-mashing Lowrie could have -- and with the added bonus of solid defensive play.
It wouldn't surprise me if Lowrie broke out in Houston at some point, but it would be less surprising if he continued this cycle of progress, injury, regress instead.
Weiland would be a more concerning parting, were they not getting a better version of him in return. Both pitchers feature hard cutters, both induce grounders, and both are capable of missing bats. The Astros will attempt to keep Weiland as a starter, whereas Melancon will move into the bullpen where Weiland would have been, had he remained with the Red Sox.
Melancon has 7.9 strikeouts per nine and a 3.21 ERA in his career, and broke out last season with his 74 inning, 2.79 ERA performance that featured eight strikeouts per nine and a 2.5 K/BB. He will be 27 years old in 2012. It's not clear as of yet if he is going to setup or close, but with his price tag, the Sox can certainly continue to shop for bullpen help.
This is the kind of deal where both sides should be happy. The Red Sox get an inexpensive (and talented) bullpen piece that has had success and is under contract for five more seasons, do so by dealing from a position of depth, and open up a 40-man roster spot, too. The Astros, who are struggling to succeed, get to roll the dice on the oft-injured (but talented) Jed Lowrie, and also attempt to see if Kyle Weiland can continue as a starter. If they are wrong, they can move Weiland to relief, as the Sox likely would have, effectively replacing Melancon's innings in the future.
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Fuck
Time to crack open a beer and watch the whole thing crash and burn.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
Time to start ignoring all your posts.
They helped the bullpen by not trading that much. I will miss Lowrie’s potential, but I was itching to get a cheap, talented and established pitcher.
My take.
Melancon is way better than Weiland. Look at his numbers last year. He’s a good middle reliever.
I’ll miss Lowrie, and he has upside if he ever stays healthy, but while it’s possible we’ll miss him after Scutaro leaves (and Iglesias isn’t ready yet, if ever), he didn’t have any place on this team but as a backup. The bullpen is an area of need.
Add in the fact that Lowrie had three arb years left versus Melancon’s five years left, two at the minimum, and this is overall an okay move in a vacuum and a good move given the Sox roster.
by abbreviatedman on Dec 14, 2011 12:15 PM EST reply actions
Mark Melancon is a relief pitcher
that makes him almost by definition the least valuable commodity in baseball.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions
Weiland was going to be a relief pitcher
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
Right
but we didn’t give up prospects for Weiland.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
...
Nor did we give up prospects for Melancon.
Unless you count Weiland. Our 16th best prospect according to John Sickels.
by abbreviatedman on Dec 14, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
We gave up Melancon and Lowrie for Melancon
Yes, i know I typed Melancon twice, that’s basically who Weiland is.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions
A not-very-good relief prospect
who’s 25 is not a big loss.
Weiland’s upside is what Melancon already is.
We traded an oft-injured MIF who isn’t a great defender and a relief prospect for 5 years of a very good reliever who could close on many teams (and might end up closing for us).
The reports of Lowrie’s quality are vastly overstated.
by abbreviatedman on Dec 14, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
I don't care about Lowrie
If we traded just Lowrie for Melancon I wouldn’t care as much. But we basically traded Lowrie for nothing because Weiland already is Melancon.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Weiland might be Melancon
Melancon, as of now, is better. And more likely to succeed, too. You guys know I like Weiland.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Weiland = Melancon?
Serioulsy? What is that based upon? Melancon has a track record of major league sucess. Weiland? Not so much.
right, we traded a guy who has potential to become Melancon
for a guy who definitely is Melancon.
Potential isn’t that same thing as it being the case.
This exchange reminds me of that scene from SpaceBalls ...
… where they end up going back in time.
by 111SoxFan111 on Dec 14, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
LonesomeDave
You can log out with that X on the upper right corner.Log back in when you know something,anything about Baseball
by Robert57 on Dec 14, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I've forgotten more about baseball than you'll ever know
And learn how to use an original insult, you stupid twat.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe he's British.
(He’s not, though)
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
How do you know?
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
You spell of America, sir.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I spell somewhat hybrid.
For example: Theatre.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
I had to substitute twat
because calling you what I wanted to call you would make Marc angry. As much as I disagree with our alien overlords I don’t want to make them angry, they’d probe me.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
Well now I'm intrigued
But yeah, don’t tell me. And play nice! Or pretend to.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 2:47 PM EST up reply actions
He's really not making any friends here, is he?
TLD’s original line was hilarious… the retort is painfully bad.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
The worst part is I can't use it again now
he ruined the whole thing with his lack of originality.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 15, 2011 12:22 AM EST up reply actions
He is not a very good troll.
Now that line shall last for all eternity.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
You
mean you can’t insult anyone with an opposing point of view, with a foul languaged High School retort?? To Bad. Some of you, who have Bill James tatood to your ass, should welcome a different point of view..
The point of view is dated, hugely dated
The game has simply passed you by old timer.
And did Bill James steal all your girlfriends in high school? I swear it’s YOU walking around like a paranoid robot walking through their day cursing Bill James.
His work is accepted and used all over the league by every team. If you can’t accept that it’s probably time you hit up the doctor for that dementia medicine your kids have been begging you to get for a few years now because you keep calling them by your child-hood dog’s name.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Not here
to make friends,pal. I just can’t let some of the nonsensical stuff posted here,by a four or five man clique,who remind me of High School kids, go unanswered. I can see them, robot like,walking through their day, murmering phrases like “replacement level players are all we need” and “let’s sign that nontendered player”,or “sign that minor league FA”,or “how could they let that sure fire HOFer,Weiland go”(although most of you agreed that the Meloncon deal was a shrewd move by the Sox) for a proven MLB guy like Meloncon?" Above all.“please stop this crazy spending,John Henry”. “It disturbs us” as they kneel at the feet of Bill James.
Again, only in potential
Until he can actually do what Melancon did in the majors, Weiland does not equal Melancon
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
His numbers pitches 1-25 are better than Melancons.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Not much better, they'd basically be the same over a year.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
That's an extremely small sample size you're looking at.
Kyle Weiland was our 20th best prospect entering the season, by many accounts, and our 16th best prospect this season, according to Sickels.
Honestly, anyone crying for the loss of Kyle Weiland is seriously deluding themselves.
by abbreviatedman on Dec 14, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
He was 20th as a starter
He might not be too good at that but many felt his stuff would translate well in the bullpen, where he might actually provide good value.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
this is true
but Melancon we KNOW can be a good major league reliever. His numbers all through the minors are better than Weiland’s. He’s actually produced in the majors.
I won’t be the slightest bit surprised if Weiland turns out to be a very effective reliever, or even a decent back-end starter. On the other hand, I also won’t be surprised if he isn’t either of those things. Melancon, in my opinion, provides us with a lot more security in our bullpen than we would otherwise have
Considering our starting pitching looks like it'll lack security
Probably not the best idea to count on an unsecure prospect in the back-end of your bullpen, which is where they view Melancon to be.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
That ranking
Takes into account he might be a reliever, doesn’t it? It is projecting his future(s) after all.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
They don't rank a lot of relievers anyway
So a low ranking for a starter could be a high ranking for a reliever, no?
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I'm thinking it's the same
As in, he’s ranked 20th because there is that chance he’s not a starter, he’s a reliever.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions
I suppose
But very, very small sample sizes there for Weiland, and as you noted, not really all that much better. Weiland also would be doing that starting from the 1st inning, whereas Melancon never entered a game before the 6th. Check out the difference in High Leverage/Low Leverage numbers.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
RELIEF PITCHER
“The least valuble commodity in Baseball”. I guess Mariano Rivera has no value to the Yankees.
Rivera made $15M last year and was worth 2.4 WAR
Craig Kimbrel made $400K and was worth 3.2 WAR.
Rivera is good, but grossly inefficient. I would rather have Melancon as closer than Rivera, I can then spend the other $14.6 million dollars to sign a second tier pitcher and get even more value out of my money.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
This is the point I keep making.
Sure, Papelbon and Rivera are elite guys that guarantee value to their teams.
But for everyone one of those, there is a guy like Francisco Rodriguez, or a Joe Nathan injury, or a Brad Lidge meltdown which makes spending that kind of money foolish.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Exactly
Mariono Rivera is a great reliever, maybe even the best ever, no one can argue that and no one is here.
But he is also grossly inefficient when compared to Kimbrel who is good, but likely he’s never going to be a HOFer like Rivera will be.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
ABREVIATEDMAN
You spelled it out in a common sense way. There is no reason why anyone should have a problem with this move. They accomplished what they wanted after letting Papelbon walk. They wanted to lighten the payroll and they did. They got a good,tested, MLB pitcher at rock bottom $$,with 5 years to go before FA.. Now, if they choose, they can leave Bard and Ace right where they belong. It will cost them some games,being that Melancon will blow more then the two saves that Papelbon did, but it is a step in the right direction.
Hate it less after my initial reaction
Weiland could do what Melancon did last year if given a shot, but there’s no guarantee of that. Melancon’s not bad, he’s cheap and under control for several more years.
It’s trading away Lowrie that really bothers me. If the rest of baseball thought that low of him I’d almost rather just keep him.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 12:17 PM EST reply actions
The Sox need the 40-man spot, though
And Lowrie is superfluous with the current roster construction. Keeping him is a waste of resources, even more so than packaging him.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 12:18 PM EST up reply actions
heh?
He plays 4 positions. You need a BU catcher, 2 IFs and a 4rth OF right?
I’ve never bought that ‘waste of resources argument’ when you have the players, and you know that they will be needed. Reminds me of when we had Coco and he was worried about being the ‘4rth OFer’ when there is no such position on the Sox. Well…a Sox that had JD Drew on the roster.
Youk isn’t exactly an Iron Man, and Scoots is old.
Course, Jed is no Tony Stark either. He’s not even a War Machine.
Still have Aviles
Wouldn’t surprise me if they also take up a bench player who can play both OF and IF
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
I'm more pissed about losing Weiland
He had the potential to be better than Melancon, and we really need to stop acquiring relievers. This is like what the Yankees did last year, but we don’t have Garcia and Colon.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
This.
It’s like learning to do algebra. If you cancel out the Weilands, you realize we traded Jed Lowrie for x where x = 0. Jed may not be worth much, but he isn’t worth nothing.
"It is so on that things have now become very much like Donkey Kong."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 14, 2011 12:22 PM EST up reply actions
Stay on topic.
If you’re gonna beef, beef in response to one another.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Not to mention NBN was agreeing with me.
I think it’s hilarious he’s decided to start attacking me, as if he could sway public opinion. I’m annoyingly negative, but it’s part of my charm, same as Sean.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 2:51 PM EST up reply actions
I was going to make the same point.
NBN is agreeing with TLD, and this is where I’m going to weigh in.
I understand that Melancon has a year of established Major League numbers, and better numbers throughout the minors, and that Weiland simply has the potential to possibly be as good as Melancon.
However, you’re saying that the established value of Melancon over the potential of Weiland is equal to Jed Lowrie? If no one wanted to give us more for Lowrie, I would also have rather kept him.
Couldn’t we have thrown Lars Anderson in on this deal to make up the perceived value of getting an “established” major league reliever? I mean, we are talking about Melancon having one really good season, right?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Lars Anderon?
You think Houston would rather have a once well thought of prospect,instead of Lowrie. You have to give something to get something.
From what I'm reading in here, no one thought much of Lowrie either.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I don't think it's that no one thought anything of Lowrie
you’ve spent enough time here to know that’s not true.
Personally, I just don’t think he would get enough playing time here to develop into the player he could be. I think Melancon fits the team’s needs better and will definitely contribute. Certainly Lowrie has the potential to be more valuable than Melancon, but I just don’t think that’s a sure thing, and I DO think that our pen needed that boost.
My answer back was to Robert, suggesting that Anderson was...
… a once well thought of prospect, implying that Lowrie was still well thought of (enough to trade for Melancon).
I’ve been around here enough to know that Lowrie has plenty of supporters, but even you think he’s been given his chance to succeed in Boston, and the injury/mono/injury bug has bitten him.
For all the concern about his wrist never being the same after that injury, he certainly hit the hell out of the ball last April. If he came into Spring Training hitting again this year, Scutaro struggles in April again next year, and he went on another strong tear… he wouldn’t take over for Scutaro?
And I continue to maintain that in December 2010, a lot of people in here would have been happy to see Ellsbury shipped for another starting piece (either SP or C or a RH OF).
Just not convinced that the FO sees Lowrie as a well thought of prospect anymore than they do Lars Anderson (though, I realize, the Astros have little need for a 1B/DH).
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
yeah but Melancon /= Weiland
Weiland has potential to become Melancon, but it doesn’t mean he IS Melancon, or even a major leaguer. Honestly, he’s really only had one really good year in the minors
Right...
… but the difference between what Melancon is, and what Weiland might be is worth Jed Lowrie (injury and potential combined)??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Yeah but I don't think it would be hard for Weiland to recreate Melancon's peripherals.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Oh, I know.
I’m just asking you whether you think the upgrade to Melancon is truly all Jed was worth at this point. That seems a little steep to me.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I'm of the opinion that now Jed is practically valueless
and he just isn’t going to get the playing time in Boston to re-gain value. So I’m indifferent to it, kind of. I don’t love losing him, but I hope he can go there and become a good player. I think Melancon is a big upgrade over Weiland- which I wouldn’t think if our entire pitching staff wasn’t a huge question mark.
Fair enough.
Though, with us signing Punto, I wish we’d kept Lowrie instead and traded another complimentary piece (Lars Anderson or Nate Spears) instead, rather than adding $500k in salary by “upgrading” to Punto.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
The Anderson market
Is super limited. The A’s didn’t want Anderson as much as they wanted the PTBNL last year, for instance. Without the PTBNL, there was no deal.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just grabbing names.
It seems like Lowrie’s value in this deal was pretty minimal too.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Okay, but
If Melancon – Weiland = x, then Lowrie > x
The Year of Extreme Opinions
"It is so on that things have now become very much like Donkey Kong."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 14, 2011 4:35 PM EST up reply actions
maybe, I'm not convined
certainly has potential to be much, much, much greater than, but it’s kinda hard to project like that, for me at least, when you’re talking about a player who has already hit arbitration.
I think Lowrie's value is clearly...
… a topic upon which reasonable men of goodwill could agree to disagree.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
"It is so on that things have now become very much like Donkey Kong."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 14, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
This is the way I feel.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I was told there would be no math.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Potential, sure, maybe
No guarantee that he actually can accomplish what Melancon did though.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
To add: It's not like Melancon is old and expensive
He’s not arbitration eligible until 2014 will cost just a tiny amount more than Weiland. Melancon also had a 9+ K/9 rate last year. If he can get back to that while keeping the walks down and the GB% over 55% I’ll be happy with him.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
I do like this.
Cheap and under team control.
Potentially our solution at closer??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I Don't Mind the Deal, But
Worry a little that supposedly Lowrie is Ellsbury’s only close friend on the team. No doubt that idea is overstated, but it isn’t great for future negotiations.
Ellsbury is so gone regardless, IMO
He is a Washington National, book it now.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions
Yank...Yank..
..and I’m going to laugh so hard when he flips off all the Sox fans that called him ‘soft’
I'd guess he's a Brave.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
He'll probably get Kemp's contract
So I assume the Nationals will want to give that up as soon as possible.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Guess we'll find out.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
You don't think they'll have learned from Werth by then?
by The Burning Scheyer Jersey on Dec 14, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
They wanted...
Buehrle, Wilson, etc. for all big money this winter. And are dying for a center fielder.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
Werth
should have stayed put,and accepted less money. That Washington park is pitcher friendly
What does he care?
He got paid millions. Doubt he’s going to worry about his stats or place in history, if Washington depresses them.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
He will take his talents to South Beach
…because of the talent walking around South Beach
"You're either carrying a spear, or running from it"
by BigSpearDiplomacy on Dec 14, 2011 1:50 PM EST up reply actions
Kind of torn
I’m not at all hurt by losing Weiland but I feel like Lowrie could have been a nice piece in a deal for a SP.
It’s a bit of an overpay but Melancon was solid last year and his peripherals back him up. Not bad.
I'm sure the Sox would have liked that
But if the market wasn’t there…
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
I'm certainly not suggesting Lowrie as a centerpiece
But as a compliment to a package with guys like Raunado/Reddick/WMB. Not advocating trading those guys but in this market its a necessary evil.
The SS market is pretty terrible outside of Rollins. Hell, Lowrie could have been included in a package for Wandy if Cherington wanted to go that route.
This is my issue too...
… I feel like there wasn’t a big enough step up to Melancon to justify shipping Lowrie… we couldn’t do better?
If we really couldn’t do better, I’d have kept him and seen if he could stay healthy, mash against lefties again, play a little better SS and package him at the deadline next summer.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Lowrie
A year ago, I would have agreed with you about Lowrie. Enough time has gone by, now, where he has not established himself as an effective every day player.
And a year ago...
… everyone in here would have traded Ellsbury for a #4 starter.
Does that make them right, and me wrong now?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Not yet.
And like I said elsewhere… if Melancon saves… oh wait, I guess I was talking about what happens if we sign Madson, and not starting pitching, but still somehow win the WS.
Same basic premise here, though… if Melancon saves 40+ games for us in 2012, and is lights out in the postseason on the way to the World Series; or Jed Lowrie breaks a leg running out a routine grounder for the Astros, then I’ll be proven wrong and I’ll eat my crow.
My point is, he’s shown the potential to be great. If Melancon gets lit up in the AL East, and Lowrie hits .275/.370/.490 with 20/25 HRs and 80/90 RBIs?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Sox will re-sign Lowrie in 5 years.
I’ll miss him for his potential and his oddly intriguing list of injuries, but Normandin is correct in writing that the Sox have Aviles to back up Scutaro – that’s a solid pair.
Lowrie was expendable.
Back to my subject line: In five years time, when the Sox still don’t have a solid long-term answer at SS, they will re-sign a 33 year-old Lowrie to partner with an up-and-coming youngster.
Or, Lowrie will be out of baseball entirely because he can’t stay healthy…
I forget about Aviles
but I hope he can step up and spell gimpy Youk and Scutaro. I hoped Lowrie could have done that over the past couple of seasons, but he coldn’t get on the field. This may be a factor in the Youk injuries, and the Sox are still going to need another IF on the bench, right?
yeah or someone else
Everyone just seems to absolutely love Spears’ personality, which, when we’re talking about a group of not-particularly-good utility players, probably gives him an edge. Whoever it is, hopefully they will have a minimal influence, for good or bad.
Oh, forgot my other HUGE issue with this
we’re giving up trade pieces to fill holes in the bullpen, which makes it more likely that Bard becomes a starter.
What the fucking fuck?
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
Your anger is my joy
In the sense that I want Bard to start and you don’t. It’s nothing personal, gosh.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
Why do you want Bard to start?
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 12:31 PM EST up reply actions
1,800 word answer!
http://www.overthemonster.com/2011/12/5/2612418/what-we-might-know-about-daniel-bard-as-a-starter
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 1:02 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure I want him to start...
… but I at least value the potential he offers as a starter.
Melancon gives us the other half to Bard, in my opinion. If Bard is successful transitioning to starter, Melancon becomes our closer (which Weiland certainly didn’t have the potential to do) and we move on with Jenks as the 8th inning guy (shudder).
If Bard fails to make the transition, he goes to the closer role, and we have a much more “established” (I need to see the career stats for Melancon to understand how established he is… only one year of service, right??) 8th inning guy.
I don’t hate this deal, if we traded Weiland’s potential as a starter for the Astros for Melancon’s bullpen role for the Sox. However, I just don’t know why Lowrie was needed as a complimentary piece.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
It's nothing to be proud of...
… but when this Bard-as-a-starter thing melts down like a Soviet-era nuclear reactor built by a corrupt engineering firm which got the contract through bribery and murder and mothers are smothering their children in their cribs so they won’t have to live in a world where the Boston Red Sox are a fucktastic pile of ill-constructed expensive crap that makes the Human Centipede films look like Term of Motherfucking Endearment, I will be saying “I told you* so.” Yes. Yes, I will.
———————
* – Not you-you, the generic you (which means Normandin, I guess =D )
"It is so on that things have now become very much like Donkey Kong."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 14, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
Hey, somebody needs to pick up the slack...
… Mr. Cheerful.
"It is so on that things have now become very much like Donkey Kong."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 14, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
(kidding, btw)
"It is so on that things have now become very much like Donkey Kong."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 14, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
Not a huge fan of Bard as a starter
(unless it works)
"It is so on that things have now become very much like Donkey Kong."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 14, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Tom Clancy cant hold your jockstrap after that....
"You're either carrying a spear, or running from it"
by BigSpearDiplomacy on Dec 14, 2011 1:52 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I’ll be the same way when Crawford blows up next year too.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
How can crawford ...
…blow up any more? That’s like putting scuttling charges on the Titanic.
it's weird when everyone is being negative here
Funny, but weird.
by Sean O on Dec 14, 2011 12:43 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Just about all trades are bashed by some here
Even the Adrian Gonzalez trade was slammed by some last year. As I said below, the problem is that fans overvalue prospects and players. Prospects like Weiland are suddenly assigned unilimted upside, and Lowrie is sure to blossom and never have to go on the DL again. Crazy.
The other dynamic that is often lost is what the immediate or long-term needs of the teams are when making a trade. The Sox did not wake up yesterday and look for a way to ship out Lowrie and Weiland; they needed a 8/9th inning reliever for 2012 and beyond and used less important immediate assets to get that done.
by Scoop1981 on Dec 14, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
And if Melancon becomes as solid as Papelbon was for the next 5 years...
I will post a mea culpa that trading away Lowrie/Weiland was a good move.
Just a little confused about whether we really needed to send Lowrie, and not a lower level guy (hell, Iglesias, for that matter) instead of him to finish this deal.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
A-Gon Trade Was Indeed Slammed Last Year
And I have no problem taking ownership of that. I thought it was rather foolhardy to use multiple top prospects and sign a long-term extension for a player that played a position that would have many elite options in the upcoming FA class.
Did he perform well? Yes. Does he pitch? No. I am not a fan of long-term contracts in general due to the risk they carry, which Boston found out the hard way with Crawford, who still has plenty of time to turn things around.
I felt that the resources used to acquire Gonzalez could have been allocated more efficiently to fill more holes. I would rather have a semi-decent first baseman and a semi-decent pitcher than have an elite 1B and Weiland and Miller giving up two runs every inning like clockwork. Granted, a position player has the potential to help win nearly every game of the season. It’s done now, but there are certainly positives and negatives with every transaction.
The real kick in the pants trade was Justin Masterson, whom I would have liked to see take the mound every fifth day over Wake, Weiland, Bedard, etc.
Back to the day’s news, I’m not sorry to see either go. All we can hope for is that Cherington figures out a way to restructure the team to win five more games.
by Christopher B on Dec 14, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, I do kind of miss Masterson.
Especially when he pitches against the Sox… really seems like he dials it up a notch or something.
That was in the V-Mart deal, though, right? Hard to argue we didn’t get a good return in that deal, even if the injuries turned 2010 into a lost season.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
You know, even I've slid to the darkside.
And I’m almost as positive and cheery as BBS/Marisa.
Seriously not happy with any of the moves we’ve made so far, and adding Gio or Wandy won’t be one that brings me back around.
I’m less and less impressed with this team as it drags on.
But seriously, Crawford cannot possibly be worse than he was in 2011… can he??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Vernon Wells 2.0
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
I made this joke about the Angels signing Pujols to 10 years too.
They plan to trade him to whatever team Reagins is working for 7-8 years from now… it will be karma for them having to eat the Vernon Wells deal he made.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Well everyone here is saying he'll bounce back. I just don't see it.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
Anybody rec-ing this yet?
Just me?
No…who’s with me? You?? Sure you are.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I will always blindly follow the canadian's example
but shouldn’t you be requeing that? :P
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 2:01 PM EST up reply actions
It was a solid post.
But was green by the time I got here, so I left it alone.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Pesky!!
I was just thinking, as I made the “not a very good troll” reference above, that I haven’t seen you throwing your two cents in on the hot stove.
Hope all is well!
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Yeah, that's me too...
I’m not usually this negative, but I just see a knee jerk overreaction to the end of the season, moves that don’t help us for 2012, a big name/big ego manager…
As I said somewhere else… sign a starter or three, and I’ll try to be my normal cheery self… right now, I just don’t like the direction we’re going.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Merry Christmas Pesky
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Ha ha ha!
Two Merry Christmas, Pesky?
Merry Christmas to you too, Gizmo! Hopefully, we get a couple nice starters under the tree this year.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
That and we sold low on Lowrie.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
he hit arbitration this year
it’s not like he’s Drake Britton, who we thought would be awesome and we’re trading him after his terrible year.
He’s only under team control for a couple more years, and he just hasn’t been able to stay on the field. If he’s going to end up gaining value anywhere, it’ll be because he gets a chance as a starter, and he’s just getting to the point where he’s had too many chances to be a starter here. Yeah, his value is low, but how much higher is it going to get on the Sox? Is he going to take over the starting shortstop role from Scoot, who was the 6th best offensive shortstop in the majors (by wOBA) last year, playing better defense than Lowrie? Is he going to take over Youk’s job?
You sons of beaches.
I always liked Melancon, too bad Girardi or Cashman soured on him so quickly. I was very content watching him succeed in Houston far far away from the Yanks. Now I have to watch Ace and Melancon suit up for the enemies. Grrrrr. IIRC he hit a few Sox (or one in the upper body area) when he pitched against them a few years ago. Wonder if anybody brings it up? Nice move.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 14, 2011 12:27 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Well, I'll take this as a good sign.
If Cassanova is pissed we got him, then maybe he’s better than I think…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
look at his numbers in fangraphs
including through the minors. He looks very good and is under team control for 5 years.
Yes, all of that is good.
I still don’t see why Lowrie was needed to make this deal work, but I’m with you… if Melancon is the de facto closer until they decide about Bard starting, then I’ll ultimately be fine with this deal.
If they still go sign an actual closer, I won’t be.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Yeah exactly,.
Minor league #‘s were very, very good. He actually used to be my favorite prospect when he was coming up. He allegedly had that “bulldog mentality” and wasn’t afraid to go right after hitters. Has a good 2 seam as well as a hammer curve and a better than average changeup. Throw in his nasty over the top delivery and he is very deceptive. Didn’t get a chance to watch him pitch in Houston last year, but I imagine it’s still the same repertoire.
Unfortunately when he came up with the Yanks he was thrown right into the fire and failed. He was up in the zone, missing his spots etc. Throw in the confrontation with Boston in a blowout and he must have rubbed someone the wrong way. Then again, Cashman and company thought they were going to get the 2011 version of Berkman during the 2nd half of 2010 and make a legit run at the WS. Unfortunately he didn’t really turn the corner coming back from injury until he was a Cardinal.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Dec 14, 2011 5:48 PM EST up reply actions
wow
hopefully he will set up Bard, art which point this is a good move. Impressed.
by Sean O on Dec 14, 2011 12:30 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Wow... and Sean O is happy with this one?
So the rest of OTM is complaining and Sean O likes it.
What’s so backwards here??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Basically, we traded:
two seriously flawed pieces for one good one.
There’s a chance that Weiland becomes Mark Melancon, and there’s a chance that Lowrie becomes Marco Scutaro. But now we have Mark Melancon, and we already had Marco Scutaro.
We traded slight upside in relief and an inconsistent, unhealthy middle infielder we didn’t need for a high quality reliever we did.
by abbreviatedman on Dec 14, 2011 12:32 PM EST reply actions
+1
Very well said. Every time the Red Sox trade a prospect, many howl because the traded prospect is assigned this magical upside potential. The fact is the Red Sox need a back-end bullpen arm for 2012 and just got a good one. Any contribution projected from Weiland for 2012 is simply a hope and a prayer.
Ill bet that even if you pare down Lowrie and Weiland
…down to their expected contribution to the 2012 Sox, they’ll come out ahead of Melancon.
Expected contributions?
I like Lowrie as a player, but I EXPECT him to play well in about 50-70 games in 2012 around one or more injuries. I can HOPE he stays healthy, but I can’t expect that from him based upon track record.
I EXPECT exactly 0 contribution from Weiland in 2012. I could HOPE he becomes rookie of the year, but hope does not equate to expectations.
First of all
not if Lowrie performs like he did last year.
Second of all, what makes you so sure that Weiland can put up a 4.25 ERA in 40 innings?
It is interesting after all of the historical problems that we've had with the bullpen
That there are folks who seemed actually comfortable with Aceves/Weiland/Doubront/Albers/Morales as the bridge to Bard
Well, I was hoping Weiland would be Bard 2.0
However, the question I have now is… where is the bridge to Bard coming from? This bullpen is being built as a bridge to… either a closer we haven’t signed yet, or my guess now… Melancon.
Bard is currently being projected as a starter by our FO. If he fails in Spring Training, he may end up being the closer, but I think Melancon is their cheap solution at closer if Bard is successful at moving to SP, to avoid signing a closer like Madson to replace Bard.
If Bard fails as a starter, Melancon will look just fine as a set up guy and Bard can go be the closer. But that is not the bridge they are building right now, is it?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Bard is being stretched out as a starter
along with Beckett/Lester/Buchholz/whoever we acquire/Aceves/Doubront/Miller/whoever else feels like it.
Not all those guys are gonna make the rotation. Generally, I know Ben tends to agree with Theo’s philosophies, and Theo has said repeatedly in the past that they thought it was a poor idea to really base their decisions off of someone being hot in spring training. Chances are that they have it made up in their minds who will be in the starting rotation when we enter spring training, and just because Bard is stretched out doesn’t mean that Bard is their plan A to start.
I still hold strong that I think Melancon gives them the flexibility to say they have someone that can close while stretching Bard out, who will ultimately set up for Bard.
And if that's the way it plays out, I'll be okay with it.
If they sign Madson, trade for Bailey or K-Rod, or some other established closer??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
300 Lowrie PA
The Sox will look to replace those precious 300 Lowrie PA’s with Aviles or anohter player in the role; I’m pretty sure they are not going to play the season a player short because of this trade. Also, 300 PA’s for Lowrid seems like an optimistic estimate.
You're making a mistake in making that bet though
It’s not just what Lowrie + Weiland vs. Melancon can do. It’s what Lowrie + Weiland vs. Melancon + Whatever takes that empty roster spot/takes the $700k we freed up can do.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
You are talking about Upperdeckersley?
I’m having a little trouble following the reference you’re responding to here…
Or did we have an actual prospect named Dennis Tankersley?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
My first reaction was "WTF??????"
Then I realized, Melancon is good. Basically, what Melancon IS is what I view as Weiland’s ceiling. So I like that. I’m disappointed that Lowrie was worth all that, but his course had run with the Sox. I don’t think they were happy with him and I don’t think he was happy with them. He didn’t have a good year at all and his value was low.
NOW, what I LOVE about this move (Marc, you will hate this if you think I’m right):
Melancon provides something to our bullpen. In addition to just having a very good year, he saved 20 games last year for the Astros (who only won what, like 23?). This is a guy that we can say going into spring training, assuming Bard starts, Melancon is our closer.
The beautiful thing about that is that Melancon just isn’t good enough to be our closer, so this reinforces my faith that the ultimate plan is to have Bard closing with Melancon setting him up.
Oh, also, Lowrie was projected to make $1.2 million. So that pretty much cancels out Shoppach’s money.
by wolf9309 on Dec 14, 2011 12:39 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
as an aside, the trade also seems like a good one for the Astros
I think this is all in all a good thing for everyone
AAV ....
I believe Kowery’s AAV was around 2 mil. , so the Sox actually cleared an extra 2 mil. under the luxury tax cieling , as well as a roster spot . Wieland was only unde control for 2 more years , both of which are arbitration eligable , so his salary will go up each year . Melancon is under team control for 5 years with no arbitration eligability for the first 2 years . Not only will he be a better pitcher than Wieland , but he will cost less money .
Who the deuce is "Kowery"??
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Oops...lol
Lowery . Not so good at the keyboard thing .
Think you mean Lowrie.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions
No, Lowrie was arbitration eligible, no long term contract
so his AAV will be the same as whatever contract he signs- which is projected as $1.2 million
And Weiland has a full 6 years of team control left
and won’t be arbitration eligible for a few more
This feels like way too much for Melancon
couldn’t they have used Weiland in a Baileu trade? Or Gonzalez?
In Lax We Trust - Official Pro Lacrosse Blog of SBN
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Is Bailey better than Melancon?
I’m not sure he is (as in I think he isn’t) if you take him out of Oakland, and then factor in that he’s more expensive, under team control less long, and a huge injury risk.
But then I never wanted Bailey.
They have been exploring trades for both of those
And from what I have learned, the answer is no, no they couldn’t have.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
I'm much more comfortable giving up Lowrie/Weiland for Melancon
Than a Reddick package for Bailey.
Your basically getting what Bailey would bring to the Sox in Melancon, for cheap. Park factors match up favorably for the Sox/Astros while Oakland contributed to Bailey’s success (career 4.27 xFIP away from the Coliseum).
Both teams make out well in this trade. Even if Lowrie consummates his potential in Houston, he was not going to have that chance in Boston.
Yeah, I'd rather have Melancon than Bailey.
I think dealing with Billy Beane for closers is dealing with the devil.
He seems to know exactly when to dump his closer for a new one, and they flame out on a new team, with possibly Foulke and Street being “exceptions” to that rule.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I said on the Gio thread
That I am torn over this one. But really I think that is because I was under the (apparently incorrect) impression that Lowrie could’ve been packaged with others to bring in a starter. But, maybe other clubs just don’t think that highly of him due to injuries or otherwise.
Any MLB fanbase usually overvalues their own guys and undervalues the other team’s guys. I’ll give Melancon the benefit of the doubt. They added a decent, young, cheap reliever. Maybe they gave up too much, maybe they didn’t. Who knows at this point.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 14, 2011 12:41 PM EST reply actions
I'm taking Lowrie again..
..on my fantasy team, and no one can stop me.
Dale, please...
… think of the children.
"It is so on that things have now become very much like Donkey Kong."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 14, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
Would they consider Melancon
For the closer role?
Check out my blog at http://conor-soxrox.blogspot.com
As I said above,
with Bard stretched out, I think they’re going to say that Melancon can be our closer going into spring training, with the ultimate plan being for Bard to take that role and have Melancon set him up.
Or
They could sign Darvish, trade for Danks or Gonzalez,and leave Bard where he has been the most effective.
it's true they could
except the Darvish part as, at least reportedly, they haven’t bid on him. I would guess that if both are in the pen, Bard has at least earned the respect of the team to be given first shot at the closer job, with Melancon there to take it if he fails.
He would certainly be an option.
That decision likely won’t be made until the start of the season for at least two reasons.
1. They will want to see if Bard can start out as a starting pitcher this year
2. They will want to see if/when Jenks is healthy enough to compete for it.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 14, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions
Doesn't seem like it...
Red Sox view Melancon as a solid setup guy with potential — one day — to be a closer. Still need to cover ninth…
-Tim Brown with Yahoo tweet
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Really?
Please give me a bullpen with Melancon leading to Madson.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
agreed
Would love to see a Melancon/Madson back end of the BP. Also, moving an asset like Bard to rotation makes too much sense.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Dec 14, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
Makes...too much sense.
Whut?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Maques
Okay, I’m sorry. I’m done.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 2:09 PM EST up reply actions
Really
You want double-digit millions tied up for multiple years for a position that routinely flames out
Thank you.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
I don't want Madson on a multi-year deal
I want the market to get to the point (and it’s close!) where a one-year deal makes more sense for him, in order to build future value in a weaker RP market for 2013.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
I addressed this in a comment below
While it might be a weaker RP market next year, that doesn’t mean it’ll be a weaker “Closer” market which would be the type of contract he is looking for.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 14, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions
sure, if he'll sign a one year cheap deal, great
if he’s gonna cost $10 million/year for a multi-year deal, get me Edwin Jackson and let Bard close, and the value isn’t even close.
And is, arguably, the biggest market inefficiency in baseball right now.
Lots of highly paid closers that absolutely lose it during the season, while the World Series teams last year went with young, home grown guys in Feliz and Motte.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Sure
Every team has a Jason Motte waiting in the wings.
Pretty sure we have Daniel Bard the last time I checked.
I’m confident he’ll be at least as good as Motte.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Agreed.
If this is Melancon as the potential closer if Bard is successful transitioning to the starter role, I can live with it.
If we sign an actual closer, like Madson and then have Melancon and Bard to set up for Madson? Not happy at all. Though, I suppose, last year showed having late inning shut down guys (and Melancon is cheap) is valuable, and could lighten Bard’s work load… no, I still want Bard closing and Melancon setting up for him (where I previously wanted to put Weiland, with hopes he’d be Bard 2.0).
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Unhappy,Why?
You would have a fabulously deep pen to pick up for our front three, who rarely get past the 7th inning. Wait, we don’t have a legitimate 4th starter, and because this is a “bridge year”, and sense our team is on the brink of bankruptcy we won’t sign one. All the more reason to stack that pen with quality arms.
Um, I'd like to point out
that no one has said “bridge year” except you. So there’s really no need for quotation marks. Unless you’re quoting yourself…
I think what our Hawaiian friend there is saying isn’t that Madson would hurt the team, but SINCE THE TEAM HAS A BUDGET, he’d rather than money be appropriated to the rotation rather than another reliever. Now, if they decide to say screw it and sign Madson, Jackson, and trade for Danks, chances are that you won’t see a ton of people complaining. It’s just unlikely.
You misunderstand the viewpoint. No one here has any problem with the Sox wasting money if they’re willing to spend an infinite amount. That would be dandy. it’s just unlikely that they’ll spend an infinite amount of money. No, it doesn’t mean they’re on the verge of bankruptcy. They’re doing quite well. That doesn’t mean that there isn’t a budget.
Thank you, sir!
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Why?
When one has closed and the other hasn’t?
Bard's closed games...
Last year was also Melancon’s first full year in the pros, he was also I believe their 4th choice as closer, the three guys ahead of him got injured.
This further proves that really most relievers can be closers, it’s a matter of opportunity not skill.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
not with his injury history and age
plus he just does not belong at SS. I’m guessing the Astros place him at 2B where he needs to be and where he would never be in Boston
I seem to recall that Lowrie was actually WORSE at 2B than SS
Though maybe if he had time to prepare for it, he would do better. Either way, if his mysteriously vanished defense doesn’t make a comeback post haste, he won’t be a starter any time soon.
If this had happened last offseason...
..when Lowrie was my wooby, I’d have flipped out.
I like the trade
its obvious that the Red Sox needed to move one of Mike Aviles and Jed Lowrie. They traded the guy who is hurt all the time. In addition they unloaded a prospect that will be nothing.
So they gave up an injury prone SS when they have 3 short stops already (Scutaro, Aviles and Iglesias) and a nothing pitcher who got HAMMERED and never recovered for a guy who is cheap and will immediately help the Sox in the pen.
Sox won this deal EASY. But I know they didnt moneyball the deal and screw the Astros. What was Ben Cherrington doing making a trade that could benefit the other side. FIRE HIM NOW!!!
LoL, be happy they didnt resign Javier Lopez..
Money Ball
The concept in Money Ball hasn’t worked out too well for Billy Beane. And, the star of the book, Nick Swisher turned in to a good player,and the A"s got rid of him. However, slipping one past Kenny Williams is not the hardest thing to do,as he swapped Swisher for Gio Gonzalez So,unless I am forgetting someone,Gio is the only player that has actually helped Oakland,and guess what? They can’t afford him. Maybe it’s time for the A’s to get out of town.
I think the A's can probably afford the $450,000 Gio is making this year
just they’re not really trying to compete for a few more years
Weiland was very good in his first two innings last year.
For 25 pitches, Weiland had value.
That said, yeah, I like the deal, too.
I think Melancon closes or sets up Bard depending if Bard sticks in the rotation or not.
My take
You could make a case the Lowrie is a 0.8-1 WAR player on the Sox at best. You could then make a case that Melancon is a 0.8-1 WAR player on the Sox in 2012 – so from a wins perspective you’ve got a wash. Weiland MAY have given some positive WAR out of the pen but that’s a huge MAY. The Sox did not need a middle infielder, yet they needed reliable relief help so for 2012 I say this is a win – Especially since that relief help is on the right side of 35 and not signed to some ridiculous Free Aget contract
Lowrie was a 2.1 WAR player
in only 55 games of 2010.
I don't think his 2010 performance is relative in this case
He’s not a useful platoon player because of his splits against RH, especially when his borderline atrocious defense didn’t play well at short. You also have Aviles who can do exactly what Lowrie does, without the injury risk.
They didn’t sell high with Lowrie earlier in the year when he was setting the world on fire, but they’re probably getting the highest value possible now.
I think people are having trouble realizing that their
Lowrie kool-aid is actually water with red-food coloring
by BobZupcic on Dec 14, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions 5 recs
So...
… you’re saying we need sugar?
The Year of Extreme Opinions
"It is so on that things have now become very much like Donkey Kong."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 14, 2011 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
We also would have accepted:
“No thanks, I’m sweet enough.”
But that would have been a little weird, I guess.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
"It is so on that things have now become very much like Donkey Kong."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 14, 2011 2:15 PM EST up reply actions
I'm drinking Kowery Kool-Aid
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
And -0.1 WAR in 2009
And 0.3 WAR in 2011.
What’s your point?
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 1:25 PM EST up reply actions
Really surprised so many people are against this trade
It’s hardly a blockbuster, but it’s a good trade. We got a good reliever with lots of cost-friendly years left in him for two pieces that had almost no value. Weiland is a future reliever who, unlike Melancon, has not proven himself at the majors and may never do so. Lowrie is a disaster of a defensive player who can’t stay healthy and can’t hit righties—anyone who was expecting a good return for him was dreaming.
I think the disaster of a defensive player is incorrect
His issue was health, and I believe his health hugely impacted his defense. We’ve seen him play before this year, he could easily field his position in an adequate manner, what we saw this year, was not what we’d seen before. Which is unusual because defense typically remains constant over the prime years of a career, Lowrie looked like an old man out there, I think it was his injury that limited him.
We could have gotten so much more for him if we waited until May when he’s on a hot streak.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Red Sox have been trying to trade Lowrie...
…for a few years now. Obviously, it didn’t take until now. Remember Ianetta? And the Rockies don’t even like Iannetta.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
back then the Sox probably thought they might keep him
by dennet on Dec 14, 2011 1:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
so what we do is keep him until we've given up hope,
then wait till he’s on a hot streak, and every other team will ignore what has made us give up hope and suddenly think he’s amazing? Sounds believable.
Captain Dennet's log December 14 1500 hours
I awoke tied up, blindfolded in a closet. My jacket, pants and shoes taken. Someone was out there pretending to be me. I had been replaced by a man of straw.
by dennet on Dec 14, 2011 3:14 PM EST via mobile up reply actions 3 recs
Yes.
Regardless of any opinion of the argument (TLDR – or at least not yet), this line needs to be rec’d.
The Year of Extreme Opinions
"It is so on that things have now become very much like Donkey Kong."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Dec 14, 2011 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
no i think it's a fair argument, I may have just been following a different train of thought than you were
if you follow the thread, Rogue was saying that we should wait until he’s on a hot streak and you responded under that saying that they thought they might keep them.
My understanding from that thread was that you agreed with Rogue (maybe I leapt to conclusions) and thought they should trade him, but once he has a hot streak. And my point being that if we wait until we’ve basically given up on a player having any real success to trade them, a hot streak is unlikely to fool other teams into thinking he has a ton of value.
If that wasn’t what you were saying, I apologize. What were you saying?
it's cool
In light of the direction the thread was taking, I can see why you’d want to make a point in response to me. I did not agree with Rogue and should have been clear about that.
So, when I was saying “back then [in 2010] the Sox probably thought they might keep him” all I really meant was “back then [in 2010] the Sox probably thought they might keep him.” The Sox had numerous farm-produced guys locked up long term: Pedey, Youkilis, Lester. Perhaps Lowrie was going to be next.
The fact that Lowrie has less value in 2011 than he had in 2010 doesn’t mean that he has no value, or that a Lowrie trade requires duping someone else into over-estimating his value. At one point the Sox thought he might stick long term. Later on, they didn’t think so. That’s the extent of my opinion here. At this point I don’t think a hot streak would have boosted his trade value significantly. April 2011 was the last opportunity for that IMO.
by dennet on Dec 14, 2011 4:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
We had hope.
Plus there was that little thing where he came back pretty much at the trade deadline.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
there's a whole offseason after the trade deadline where he could've been traded
would you have been favor of it then? I’m guessing no, because we had hope. Now we don’t have hope. Are we at the point where a hot streak won’t re-ignite our hope? If so, why will a hot streak suddenly convince other teams to ignore his history?
I think his value after a hot streak will be higher than his value currently after the nerve injury. I mean, he got us 25% of a reliever (I’m calling Weiland the main piece in this trade), how much more would we have gotten last spring for him after that streak? Quite a bit more, teams will look past the injury a little if he’s actually playing well.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
and what is the guarantee that he'll start off the year on another hot streak?
why not just accept him as a part of a package to strengthen our pen, which is desperately needed?
This is where that other part of me is leaning.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Because I don't really think Melancon is really all that good.
I think that when put up to it Weiland or Tazawa would recreate his stats in a hearbeat.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Weiland, maybe
Tazawa I’m still not entirely sold on. I like him as a reliever in the majors, but he’s as likely to be middle relief as he is to be anything beyond that.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions
Why?
Melancon put up consistently better numbers than Weiland ever did in the minors and has produced in the majors
Melancon was already a reliever in the minors
While Weiland was putting out 120 innings. Big difference. As a reliever Melancon is a 3.50 ERA sort of guy with those peripherals he has. He isn’t really that great of a reliever.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Just don't see the reason that you're so assured that Weiland IS
I agree that he COULD BE but I’d rather have someone I know will be at least pretty good on this team.
I'm not enamored with Melancon. He's a good reliever, not a great one though.
I liked our chances with tossing our failed starters into relief, one of them almost certainly would put up Melancon stats or better, it’s reliever roulette. And we could have kept what we had. And we wouldn’t have gone to sign Nick Punto to a multi-year deal.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Nick Punto makes me like this trade less
If I view it as
Melancon for Weiland and
Punto for Lowrie
I like one of those a lot and hate the other. I’m going to think of it that way, just because I think it would be unfair to Melancon to let my hate of Punto rub off on him.
Right... the Punto deal makes this one even less logical.
If they threw Lowrie in because we had too many middle infielders, he was always injured, and they couldn’t get more value for him… fine.
If they immediately replaced him with Nick Punto… then why not just keep Lowrie to see whether he could finally stay healthy, and not spend $1.75 on Punto??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
That just doesn't make much sense
because how are you even going to get Melancon without giving up those pieces? Signing Punto has nothing to do with getting Melancon.
Well, the logic I'm following is...
… Lowrie was considered a throw in for Melancon because we had plenty of depth for Util/Middle Infield types, so… expendable. (I don’t agree, but that’s the logic here…)
So, following that trade by signing Punto for 2 years/$3 million plus $500k in incentives shows we had a need for a Util/Middle Infielder, but didn’t think Lowrie was it.
To me, they should have given up a lower level prospect with Weiland to get Melancon, and kept Lowrie instead of signing Punto. Trading away a player that requires you to spend $1.5 million to replace him doesn’t suggest we got a great deal of value out of this trade. Just my opinion.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Lowrie would have cost that via arbitration
And he wasn’t traded just because he was expendable. He was traded because he was the youngest of that group, and the one the Astros wanted because of it, and the Red Sox were fine parting with him since they were getting a reliever they want back.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 6:55 PM EST up reply actions
Was he really going to get $1.5M this year?
A 300% raise? I could see $1M to $1.2M, but not any higher.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
200% rather
pft math.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
well that does happen with arbitration
MLBTR projects he’ll make $1.2 million. Which sounds about right to me. But then next year, he’d make more, assuming similar performance. So maybe Marc meant over the course of the deal?
I do think in any case, even with our limited budget, $300k is really splitting hairs in baseball money. We’ll lose significantly more than that in all star bonuses, most likely.
This is where not being on the field hurts him
Regardless of how it happened.
Next year is a beast to be taken care of at another time, this year, I think the deal cuts even more into those precious funds. A little here, a little there, it does add up.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Aren't there more SPs available next year?
Isn’t that part of why we want a cheap, one year deal this year? So we can be big spenders next year?
In other words, we stay under the luxury tax this year, so we get away with a penalty free overspend for 2013?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I don't think so either
But theoretically Lackey will be healthy and penciled in, Dice, Jenks and maybe Ortiz and Youkilis come off the books. We’ll probably have figured out or plan with Ells by then too.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Well, 2013 would be Ells final year of arbitration.
I doubt we’re keeping him beyond 2013, and I doubt we let him walk unless he has a horrible 2012 campaign.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
There is a slim, slim, slim chance we end up with a multi-year extension
Somehow. But not very likely. I expect he’ll leave, but crazier things have happened. I think if it becomes well known he wants to leave, he may be gone by the trade deadline, giving another team a year and a half to get Danny Oceans to rob Fort Knox for them.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
if he managed to repeat 2011 this year, would you give him Matt Kemp money?
I suppose Matt Kemp money probably isn’t fair as Kemp is younger than Ells. Maybe Crawford money?
I think so.
I’m a big fan of the do it twice policy. We have a right to be a little gun shy around big contract numbers but if that’s his actual talent level he’s a special player and we should try and keep him, I’d pay him Crawford money. But if he plays hardball I’d also be fine letting him go and dipping into our almost endless OF talent pool.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
If he does it in 2012, isn't it three times?
I mean, for all the knock last winter that 2009 was an aberration, due to high BABIP and there was a need to “do it twice”… he then followed with an MVP caliber season.
And that’s ignoring his SSS in September 2007 that helped us get to and win the WS.
True, he hasn’t put up MVP numbers twice, but when are we going to concede that he might be a better player than Crawford (and therefore worth at least Crawford money)?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I wouldn't pay Ellsbury Crawford type money
For his 2009 season. Not even close. I would for his 2011 tough.
2009 was on the lower side of an average Crawford year, 2011 was above it I think. If he repeats his 2011, THATS when we concede how good he is.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Wait... you think 2011 was better than an average Crawford season?
I think 2009 was a pretty good season for Crawford, and 2011 far surpasses any single season Crawford has put up so far.
What Crawford season would you like to put up against Ells’ 2011 that would give Crawford the edge?
My point is 2009 was a solid season for a CF, and probably an elite year. 2011 is taking that elite season to a whole other level. He’s done two elite seasons already. He’s done it twice.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Crawford’s wOBA’s over the last few years (minus his injury year and this one) have been in the id .360s, Ellsbury’s 2009 was in the .350s, it was a little below Crawford’s recent averages.
It was a solid season but a .350s wOBA isn’t the stuff of legends and it’s not what got Crawford his contract.
2011 would beat Crawford’s best season which would be above Crawford’s average would it not?
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
You said... "I think"
To me, “I think” implies uncertainty as to whether Ellsbury’s 2011 is better than an average year for Crawford.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Okay... so I had to go look it up...
Carl’s best season saw him put up a 7.6 WAR, which is when we offered him 7 years/$142 million, so let’s use that one:
Crawford 2010 – 7.6 WAR
.307/.356/.495/.378/140 (47 SBs)
Ellsbury 2011 – 9.4 WAR
.321/.376/.552/.402/150 (39 SBs)
Not to mention Ells had 32 HRs/119 R/105 RBIs… to Crawford’s 19/110/90.
I’d say Ellsbury’s 2011 was clearly better than Crawford’s best season, nevermind his average season.
Let’s take this further: Carl’s second best season saw a 5.9 WAR in 2009, so…
Crawford 2009 – 5.9 WAR
.305/.364/.452/.367/125 (60 SBs)
Ellsbury 2009 – 2.5 WAR (-9.7 UZR)
.301/.355/.415/.354/108 (70 SBs)
I’d argue now that the average of their two best seasons suggests that Ellsbury is at least as good as, and probably better than, Crawford.
Disagree?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I don’t think a simple average really makes it work. Crawford before his deal had five 4+ WAR seasons under his belt. Ellsbury at this point has 2.
If Ellsbury repeats his 2011 in 2012 I give him Crawford money, but with 1 elite year and 1 solid year he doesn’t quite have the resume that Crawford had put together by his free agency.
As for the ‘I think’ I hadn’t looked, I assumed it to be better than most but I knew Crawford had a couple of very good seasons with the bat before. Semantics really. It’s not an untrue statement.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I guess I figured it was obvious that...
… Ellsbury’s 2011 was much better than an “average” Crawford season.
True, Crawford did have a better track record (due in large part, though, to the UZR component on defense, which destroyed Ellsbury’s 2009 WAR). Depending on where you fall on the reliability of UZR, I’d argue that Ellsbury may have put up three 4+ WAR seasons without that disaster of a UZR score in 2009.
However, three is still not five. I think all of it is moot, as I’d be shocked if Ellsbury stuck around (unless we won a WS or two, and he decided that playing his whole career in Boston had some value in a retired jersey kind of way).
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
If he reposted his 2009
I’d still offer him at least Reyes money, but not Crawford.
But I think he’s gone too.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I was forgetting about Dice being off the books
that helps. If Middlebrooks is ready to play third, that would be a tremendous help, in that Youk could DH if Papi sucks this year, or we could trade/not pick up Youk’s option if he can’t play this year.
I suppose that potentially, if both Ortiz and Youk came off, we’d have a ton of money.
Enough to get at least 1 good starter.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Which is sort of where I hope we are in 2013.
You know… a short term rental or three for 2012: Kuroda and Maholm on one year deals, for instance.
Then all in for a pitcher in 2013 when there should be more available (or maybe even at the deadline, if it’s someone we could get to sign an extension in the offseason).
Then you have Lester, Buchholz full healthy I hope, Beckett finishing out his contract in the #4 spot, and Lackey hopefully healthy enough to be a #5 (despite what we’re paying him). A good #2 starter in 2013 could make that a hell of a rotation.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I don't think I agree.
I think Lowrie is a big reason we now have Melancon.
I'm not saying that's what the deals are
I’m just saying I prefer to think of it that way.
Well signing Punto kind of does, because we don’t need Punto if we don’t trade Lowrie
Which goes back to...
… we traded away something we had to spend $1.5 million to replace, along with Weiland’s potential to get Melancon, who looks great through the minors and one solid year in the majors, so he’s “established” compared to Weiland.
I guess I still don’t see that the difference between Weiland and Melancon was worth Jed Lowrie, if we’re forced to sign Punto to replace Lowrie.
Melancon career MLB numbers:
106 G/112 IP/20 SV/11 HLD/7 BLSV/1.26 WHIP/3.21 ERA
How, exactly, is this an “established” set up guy? 71 games and 74 innings last year means he had only 35 games and 38 innings at the major league level prior to 2011. And he did it in the National League…
Are we really sure this guy is the set up guy (de facto closer) we need? That was really worth Weiland & Lowrie??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
One full year in the bigs plus minors,
with good numbers in the back of a bullpen counts to me as being somewhat established. Weiland on the other hand is wicked UN-established. Lowrie could be a really good hitter, but we got a good young cheap arm, which we needed. As for Punto I posted some thoughts on him below
I know, I know...
I want to like this deal, but probably most of my frustration is that I’m worried our next move is $10 million a year for however long to Madson, and not a SP.
If they announce Kuroda tomorrow on a one year deal, I’ll start to believe again. I swear.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
One full year is established only relative to Weiland
If you toss Weiland, Tazawa and Doubront in the pen, I’m certain one of them at the end of the year will look just as good, maybe all of them.
To baseball, one year of good relief isn’t exactly saying a whole lot.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Melancon was dominant last year.
I’d be just as willing to bet that none of those 3 will look as good as Melancon. Maybe Tazawa.
Melancon was many things
But let’s leave dominant out of it. He was outside the top 20 for NL (not even all of baseball, just his own league) relievers in just about every stat, K rate, BB rate, ERA, FIP, WAR. His xFIP and his saves are the only of those stats he is inside the top 20 on.
He was rather good, but he didn’t touch dominant.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
You're certain of that, totally your choice
I, however, am not certain of that, and the Sox FO agrees with me.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
Which is the deciding factor right?
Because a FO can make nothing but the right moves ever?
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Well, when they line up with my thoughts, yeah
Seriously though, I hope you don’t take offense to this, but I trust their judgement just a bit more than yours just from the simple nature of things.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 10:04 PM EST up reply actions
I just don't know enough about Cherinton to trust him yet.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Yet Lowrie kinda sucks at MI defense
and Punto’s kinda good – so if they are a wash financially you basically traded upside with the bat for good defense now
But Lowrie only sucked at defense last year, after the injury.
So… was he the level of defender Punto is? No, never was.
Is Punto’s bat even as average as Lowrie’s defense was prior to the injury? Probably not.
Will this work out for the good of the 2012 Red Sox? Of course it probably will.
I just wanted to see Lowrie turn his potential from his run in 2010, and his start to 2011 to a full season in 2012 in a Red Sox uniform. I realize this is probably completely irrational (and lone1c’s post really sums up why), but I’m frustrated right now.
Sign me a starter or three, and I’ll stop whining about a deal that’s done and I cannot fix, and start salivating about what our offense would look like with a real rotation in place for 2012.
After all, none of us loved the rotation we went into 2011 with… we all saw some potential (Lackey rebounds, odd year Beckett, a second strong year from Buchholz, Dice finally delivering on his promise), but it didn’t materialize. I want to love our 2012 rotation, and right now… it scares the hell out of me.
Am I seeing this correctly:
Ace: Jon Lester (very happy)
Fading Ace: Even Year Beckett (I know, he doesn’t care about even or odd years)
Blossoming Ace: Buchholz (broken back and all)
Ace Potential: Miller (I can’t buy a strike)
Ace Experiment: Bard (I should be closing)
Ace in Name: Aceves (sorry, couldn’t resist)
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I think you underestimate the intelligence of other GM's
I’m pretty sure they are capable of evauating the whole of a player’s career and potential just as capably has the Red Sox. Sure, if Lowrie puts in a whole, healthy season of good prodcuction, then logically, his value will increase; but not after just a few weeks of that.
Plus, it is easier to replace him during the offseason when more options are available.
There are obviously teams that want Lowrie
Playing well CANNOT hurt his value at all and could be the difference between Lowrie + Weiland for Reliever A and just a straight up trade. I’m not saying Lowrie could have gotten us a starting pitcher straight up, I’m saying he can play himself into a place where he isn’t just a throw in.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Can't play the wait/hope game
GM’s, as business people need to ACT when a favorable transaction is there for the making. The Sox need a capable 8th/9th innng reliever now, so they make the move now. I like it.
I think Melancon can close
And I also think he’s exactly the same guy that a week ago 90% of this board would have objected against as a closer if that’s what the Sox came out and said his role was going to be. If they indeed make him closer, I’m OK with this trade, but if he’s merely a setup guy and they STILL make another acquistion that costs a lot of money for a closer as unfortunate baseball wisdom suggests, this isn’t really a great move, especially considering the Punto aspect.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
right, as I've said above,
I love this move under that assumption that Bard ends up as our closer. It’s also OK if Melancon is our closer, though then I think we still need someone good in our pen. If we sign Madson or whoever, then I hate this move.
I think it's trivially true
that any player will have higher trade value after a hot streak. Just the same, Lowrie 2010 edition has significantly more trade value than Lowrie After Hot Streak 2012 edition.
by dennet on Dec 14, 2011 4:08 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't think he'd be a good defensive player regardless of health
but even if you’re right, he’s basically never healthy. There’s a lot of guys who would be better players if they stayed healthy, but when you’re dealing with a 27-year-old utility infielder—which, let’s face it, grow on trees—teams are going to pay for what he IS, not what he could be.
He was a fine defensively player when healthy. He wasn't an Iglesias
But I’d have said he’s better than Scutaro without thinking about it. That’s not what he was this year, which makes me think there was something wrong.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
This trade goes up in value if it keeps the Sox
from committing large sums of money and/or legitimate prospects to someone with the “closer” label. As good a pitcher as Madson is – I’m just not comfortable going 4 years and 10+ million for that spot, nor would I be willing to part withthe higher end of our prospect list for someone like Bailey
Melancon + Bard make a nice back-end of the pen without major financial commitment
And they keep some prospects that could get them a SP.
Lowrie and Wiland as part of deal wouldn’t get you that good of a SP. Now they keep the high level guys for when they can get a SP in a deal.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 14, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
but I'm kind of worried we might start chasing our tails
in Omar Minaya fashion. Unlike the Mets, we probably really are a few pitching upgrades away from postseason worthy team. So that’s a positive.
But I don’t want to wake up from 5 years of fruitless trades and free agent signings to discover the farm system had vanished.
by dennet on Dec 14, 2011 1:58 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I agree to a point, but if there' s a SP that could have some real impact.
Trade some of the farm, not the whole farm. This team is closer than any team Omar Minaya ever pur together.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 14, 2011 2:06 PM EST up reply actions
Suppose the Sox trade for Gio. Who's left?
That’s not a rhetorical question, by the way. I really want to know.
by dennet on Dec 14, 2011 3:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't know.
Might not be a whole lot, or if you can kind of keep it to the just guys like Reddick, Middlebrooks, and a few other high minor leaguers, the Sox lower minor league system is pretty loaded.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 14, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions
Or, as BZ said below: Kuroda/Maholm/Garland.
Not Gio. Not Wandy.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I don't want Gio either as I said below.
Or Wandy for that matter. I’d be happy with Kuroda/Maholm/Garland. All my point about this Melancon deal was that it allows them to use some of the higher level prospects to get a starter, which is what we desperately need. I don’t think Weiland and Lowrie would generate a good SP back, even if they were just throw ins.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 14, 2011 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
I don't want Gio.
Or Wandy.
Can we just sign Edwin Jackson instead? No prospect cost… just money.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
That would be fucking awesome.
Pending price, that is.
I'll take Kuroda/Maholm/Garland too.
I just want at least one legit starter, and would love to see two. I don’t want a closer, and I don’t want us to trade prospects for a starter.
Just spend the money!
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
The top level ahs
But the lower levels are stacked. Maybe you should read up on that sometime
by aubatron2011 on Dec 16, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
I would suggest we keep the prospects
and sign guys like Kuroda/Maholm/Garland to compete. We don’t really “need” a front-end starter just arms to keep us in games
I'm on the Kuroda train.
If he’s legitimately willing to make the move.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Kuroda/Maholm would be cool.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you about that.
I just think if there was an opportunity that popped up to acquire a pitcher that could give us very good numbers and not just keep us in games, I’d do it. But if they signed Kuroda/Garland/Maholm, and kept the prospects, I wouldn’t mind either way.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 14, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
definitely agree
Only, I want 1, maybe even 2 (hell, 10) more inexpensive guys of borderline setup/closing capability. I may be alone here, but I think relief pitching has a huge under-appreciated marginal value and should be taken way more seriously.
Also, 2 somewhat relevant questions. Will Jenks be relevant this year? What’s the status on Bard starting? Is that happening or not?
by dennet on Dec 14, 2011 1:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Bard starting is only happening at the beginning of Spring Training.
Then they’ll reassess the situation.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 14, 2011 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
Jenks will ...
… blow out his back pulling on his uni in ST. Will be sent to DPI (Donut Performance Institute). In an alternative universe, the Sox send him to the competitive eating league via posting system; get 5 boxes of Ring-Dings in return.
by 111SoxFan111 on Dec 14, 2011 2:10 PM EST up reply actions
And this I totally agree with...
… and I might calm down if that’s how we go into Spring Training (with Bard trying to convert to starter, and Melancon theoretically our closer if he’s successful).
If we sign Madson as a follow on here, or trade for Bailey? Yeah, really going to be pissed at that point.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I'm not that torn over trading either one of them but I feel the Sox could've gotten more...
"Remember, it's not over until the fat lady drops one."
I like it....
Now sign Madson to a one year Beltre type deal. A Melancon + Madson back end of the BP, allowing Bard to move to the rotation is a win/win situation.
"Man you are one pathetic loser. No offense." - Lloyd Christmas
2011 Varitek League Champion
by Lloyd Christmas on Dec 14, 2011 1:52 PM EST reply actions
Madson we get a multi-year deal
He isn’t in the same situation that Beltre was. Madson won’t get the 4/40 year deal he might supposedly had gotten offered from Philly but there isn’t really any chance of getting Madson on a one-year deal.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 14, 2011 1:57 PM EST up reply actions
Eh
There aren’t a whole lot of teams looking for big closers now, and the market will be better for him next year. Especially if he has a year of experience. It’s worth the risk for him to do a one-year if nothing else pops up. Better than being locked into a low-paying multi-year.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 2:19 PM EST up reply actions
if that offsets any SP acquisition
even with Bard supposedly going to SP then that’s a poor trade-off in my mind
Especially considering we theoretically have $8 million left?
So, assume we sign him for $10 million, even on a one year deal… we hit the luxury tax level we’re trying to avoid, and we don’t have any money left for a SP.
Or am I misunderstanding the math somehow??
I’d rather spend the money on SPs because if we hit September with a rotation in shambles like we did in 2011, I see bad things happening again. Doesn’t matter how good the bullpen is if the starters cannot go 5 innings.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Depends what he gets offered
The market isn’t great but the market paid Joe Nathan $7 million a year for the next two years. It is not easy to say that the market will be better for him next year as that is a big risk on his part. He’ll turn 32 during this season and even if there are potentially more closer spots open next year as it stands now, the closer market can change very very quickly.
Look at this year alone. How many pitchers just this year became viable closers? Storen, Kimbrel, Hanrahan, Walden (Blew a bunch of saves but still), Brandon League , Madson himself, Melancon did for a while, Javy Guerra did for a while, Farnsworth did really for the first time. Point being that a team that might look like they will have an opening, and might easily find someone this year. Or, they may have a Bard-type waiting in the wings.
If Madson got a two year deal at decent money with an vesting third year based on games pitched, I think he would take it. Sure he wants to get paid like a top closer.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 14, 2011 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
But who is going to give him that deal right now, is my main question
The list of teams who need a closer right now — or an expensive reliever — is really short.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
If he did go for a one year deal
What do you think he would settle for?
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 14, 2011 2:54 PM EST up reply actions
And I'll say it again...
… I really do believe that closer is the current market inefficiency, and I don’t want to be one of the teams spending on the position. Plenty of teams spent a lot of money on closer last year, and got decent returns. More assigned a young fireballer to the role (say a guy like Bard, Daniel) and got the same returns.
Let’s use a young, cheap flamethrower in the role and spend our money on starters.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I like it!
Because it means we’re finally making a transaction this offseason!
by Anthony Emerson on Dec 14, 2011 2:01 PM EST reply actions
Yeah...I'm not sure about this.
I was looking forward to seeing if maybe Weiland had the stuff to be a solid reliever. With his 1-25 numbers, I think it was worth actually exploring. And I can’t help but think that we sold way low on Lowrie, in spite of his injury concerns. He strikes me as a bounce-back candidate, frankly. There’s a part of me that really thinks that we may have up two pieces that we didn’t need to.
But, at the same time, I don’t feel definite about that in any way, and I’m willing to see how this shakes out.
I’ll miss the Legend of Jed Lowrie, though. Now that it has a sad ending, it will make a wonderful folk song.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Lwrie can only bounce back if he stay healthy
which he has yet to show that he can.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 14, 2011 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
Well, the original injuries
were due to mismanagement by Sox medical team. Maybe that’s just a “well, doesn’t matter whose fault it is” scenario, though. But his lack of ability to stay health isn’t all on him.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Even though - he does seem to be made of glass
or at least has garnered that reputation – which probably made him hard to trade on the market
Then maybe he shouldn't be traded yet.
Let him grow a little worth and trade him at the deadline. I dunno, though.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
That was my thought
If you’re going to let him go, at least do it when he doesn’t have the value of a throw in.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Keep in mind that even if he played better and increased his value
(which is a BIG if), some of that increased value would be offset by the fact that the amount of time he’s under team control would be simultaneously decreasing, thus lowering his value.
Is there a chance he could have a crazy good 2012 and we’d regret trading him for a reliever? Yeah, obviously. But the odds of him significantly increasing his trade value in the next year were pretty low.
I think they're higher than most think.
Essentially he’s had 2 injuries in his pro-career. The wrist, which was mismanaged and it cost him a year and a half, and the nerve injury this year. The mono is a freak thing and the chronic fatigue syndrome (think that’s what he had) is a not uncommon affect of mono, I can’t count that when I consider his injury proneness.
The chances were good for him this year. We know what he can do when he’s healthy and as I explain above, his health isn’t as huge of a red-flag as it’s been made out to be on this board. I think we will regret this trade.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Depending on when he signed his game total for 2005 seems fine
It was his ankle in 2006, he still got in 400+ PAs.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
yes, ankle, that was it
injuries add up. No, none of those things by themselves would make him valueless, but all of them added together really cut down on his value a lot.
3 injuries in 6 years
1 random illness and post-illness affect which is rather common of said illness and 1 injury was mismanaged.
It isn’t good, but it isn’t the damn disaster you’d think if you read only the injury comment in this thread.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I'm tired of hearing about the mismanaged injury
sure it was mismanaged and sure it sucks, but no matter whose fault it is, he hasn’t been able to hit left-handed since then. I don’t care whose fault it is, but I don’t for a second believe that his wrist is back to where it starter.
If people are going to lambast his health
Then they better as hell at least be informed about it or concede that some of that history isn’t necessarily applicable to some apparent genetic shortcoming.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
dude, it's not lambasting
every day he’s getting paid that he can’t play baseball or can’t play baseball well hurts his value in trades. If he hasn’t been able to stay on the field to develop his value, he hasn’t been able to stay on the field to develop his value. The fact is that in the majors, he’s had a couple of very hot streaks, and some very, very, very cold streaks- which haven’t totaled the numbers of a good offensive shortstop. Even if an opposing GM is convinced that he’ll be healthy, are they going to be convinced that he isn’t just incredibly streaky?
Are these the same GMs
Who will trade Sanchez for Melky straight up because he had a hot streak but Gio Gonzalez will cost Mike Stanton?
This whole thread has absolutely mischaracterized Jed’s health and ability to be on the field because there is an entire fanbase trying to de-value him as we push him out the door for a reliever I think we are currently over-valuing.
I think some GMs can see that he probably would be on the field more than he has been under something comparable to normal circumstances, Mono and Chronic Fatigue Syndrome and a botched diagnosis are not that and constitute a massive part of the time people criticize Lowrie for not being on the field for.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I really wish we'd made a play for Sanchez.
At that asking price… I mean, surely we have someone as good as Melky we could have offered, no??
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Sanchez is just not worth the $6 million he's going to make
the Melkyness of the situation is irrelevant.
Okay... didn't know the salary side...
That would mean we have limited resources to sign someone else as well… yeah, I’d rather sign someone else instead.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
There is a part of me that would trust Joe Saunders more than Sanchez in the AL East
I kind of hate that part of me. But I also think it’s right :-(
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
he was injured in the minors
then he had a mismanaged injury on the Sox, then he missed a ridiculous amount of time from mono, then bruised a nerve which apparently made him play like crap this year. It does add up at a point.
Forgot about the mono
which, I mean, is @#$%ing random. Basically he’s had a bruised nerve.
Jed’s probably thankful to get the @#$% away from the Sox, frankly, so that he can play and not be on the DL.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
As far as I know, that's about right.
Or certainly not unusual.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
He got a bout of chronic fatigue from his mono I believe, which, I've heard isn't uncommon at all.
And can in fact sideline you for months as we are acutely aware of.
I’d be curious what his reputation would be if his original wrist injury was well managed and he hadn’t gotten mono, he could potentially have 2 more full seasons under his belt.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
The Legend of Jed Lowrie
is a tragic tale indeed.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
It's not unheard of
For some it can take longer than that. Regardless, it is a viral infection. How long it takes to recover from a viral infection isn’t really going to be used by teams to judge how likely he is to pull a hamstring or get a shoulder strain, etc.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 14, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions
sure, if it was just mono, that would be true
but it’s not. He’s had wrist problems in the minors, he’s had wrist problems in the majors, and he’s had a weird bruise that made him play like crap this year.
And played awful
Pre-bruise, post falling on his wrist in May.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions
I was only referring to the mono part of your original statement
I’m not saying other teams didn’t lower his value due to injuries because they definitely did. I’m just saying that they most likely did not include mono as part of that reasoning. The other issues by themselves would’ve been enough to give some teams worries, even with knowing that the Red Sox mismanaged one.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 14, 2011 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
And I'm still with you on this point too...
Fine, Melancon is what Weiland might have become, and there’s value there. But the value of that “upgrade” for a guy that’s done it over a guy with potential is really Jed Lowrie? That feels like we got nothing at all for Lowrie…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
How this affects Ellsbury.
Hasn’t it been reported far and wide that Ellsbury ONLY close friend on the Sox was Lowrie?
“As joyful as Ellsbury’s MVP-caliber season was to many fans, his interaction in the Sox clubhouse was limited mostly to his friend Jed Lowrie.” [This was widely reported during the season. I picked it up off AP, but I think it originated in the Globe.]
How will Lowrie being traded away affect the Sox’s ability to re-sign Ellsbury to a long-term contract? His frosty relationship with management may have become a little frostier.
Even though, I fully admit that an athlete should perform regardless of trades etc, it is inevitable that i seeps into the locker room. Just look at the Perkins trade and Rondo’s response. [Not that Lowrie was on Perk’s level!]
Ellsbury was gone anyway.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions
It was probably minimal at best - Boras and all
The Sox have outfield depth and another year of Ellsbury, so there is really no impetus to bend over backwards for him
This is his last year with us.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
Correct
Arb 2 this year, Arb 3 next.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 3:02 PM EST up reply actions
Could have sworn he was a FA next year
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 14, 2011 3:03 PM EST up reply actions
Ellsbury is and always was going to the highest bidder
I think he’s just not a terribly outgoing and sociable person, doesn’t mean that he hates everyone else on the team. This doesn’t affect him at all. He wasn’t going to take a discount to stay here just because Jed Lowrie was around.
I'll agree with you here.
And he’s going to get Carl Crawford money, thanks… in part… to us setting that market by signing Carl Crawford. We weren’t going to pay both of them that kind of money anyway, but it’s too bad Beltre broke his ribs in 2010, and he broke out a year late.
If that hadn’t happened, and he puts his 2011 numbers up in 2010, he doesn’t get badmouthed by teammates and in the media, maybe we sign him to an extension, and we never sign Carl Crawford. Oh, what could have been…
(And, yes, I know the power he exhibited in 2011 has been attributed in large part to the rehab he did to strengthen his core after the rib injury… just wishful thinking on my part.)
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Carl Crawford money is so 2011
He’s going to get Matt Kemp money
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
Did Matt Kemp get Matt Kemp money already?
Did I miss the details on that deal? I need to go look for it…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Thanks!
Now, that’s $20 million a year for 8 years… Crawford got… 7/$142 million.
Oh yes, I see now… well, either way… Ellsbury’s going to get paid more than we can afford, with the other pieces we have on our roster.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Oh I've thought for a year that it was 7/124
not 142. Now I feel worse about that deal.
HAH!
nick punto agrees to #redsox deal
-Heyman on Twitter
The Melancon move makes less sense to me now.
Plus, same people are going to be pissed we still haven’t addressed starting pitching.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 3:39 PM EST reply actions
ah dammit
what do we want with a Punto? I’m OK with this if we’re paying him nothing but a world series share if they win.
Nope
Apparently $3.5 million over 2 years.
First real bad move by Cherington in my mind.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions
Read some comments from Cardinal fans
They are saying this Punto signing is a good deal. Grade A Defense at 3 positions and a great clubhouse guy. Guess I can’t complain about that, because we really do need a good clubhouse guy, and the defense is much better than Lowries.
by greenlemonade102 on Dec 14, 2011 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, that's only because
the year they had him was a ridiculous amount better than what he’s proven himself to be over a surprisingly long career.
Well, he is good defensively
So, uh, that part is true I guess. But he couldn’t hit to save his life.
I just hate how this is one of those “Clubhouse” signings and is a “Valentine really likes him” type moves.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 4:01 PM EST up reply actions
Just saw it on Boston.com
What’s not to like about this move? Isn’t Punto at least as capable as Lowrie? Remember, we have a gimpy Youk coming back and Scutaro is not getting any younger.
So why not keep Lowrie?
I mean, the argument for this trade was that we had an overload at the middle infield spots, and then after we pull the trade, we sign a guy for about $500k more than Lowrie was going to make.
So, then, we had a need for Lowrie/Punto, and Lowrie had value to us… and we traded him with Weiland for a more established reliever (always an unknown quantity from year to year).
Maybe this works out, but the Punto signing makes me like this deal even less. I’d rather we kept Lowrie.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
actually, it's probably what Lowrie would make in arb
$3 million over 2 years (the rest is performance bonuses)
But, the cost for 2011 (when we're trying to stay under the tax) is $1.75 million vs. $1.2 million, right?
Or were we just guessing what Lowrie would get in arbitration being around $1.2 million in cap hit?
Since I’m looking at the $500k increase as the AAV for Punto at $3.5 million over two years as over Lowrie’s 2012 at $1.2 million.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Or do the performance bonuses not count?
So only $300k higher?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
yeah performance bonuses don't count
whatever he makes gets added in the end, I believe. It’s only the average of the amount of money he is guaranteed.
Red Sox will likely go over the luxury tax
they already said they are prepared to do that. today has been a mostly payroll-neutral day anyway. $1.5 mil/year is what any usefull veteran earns in MLB.
Why not keep Lowrie?………..cuz we got a good, young and for all you pennypinchers out there, cheap reliever for him.
I think there are any number of guys we already have
Who could fit the description of Melancon quite easily. I think he can close, but I suspect the FO doesn’t, so we’re still going to have acquire someone else in the pen that will limit our ability to sign a starter. All of the moves in the last 2 days, are essentially tinker and side-step moves.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
What if they acquire a starter?
Think about this. If they get a starter, and a closer. Bard fails as a starter in ST. Potentially the 7, 8 and 9 inning could be locked down. Which makes this deal even better for the Sox.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 14, 2011 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
I firmly believe they cannot get BOTH
a starter who would be any good AND someone baseball thinks is worthy to close games for a top club. The budget only really allows one or the other. Which is why this whole Bard thing may really handcuff us from making any big moves until ST when they know what they’re going to do with Bard. If they guess wrong, they’re screwed and we have to watch Andrew Miller start.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
What budget?
John Henry’s got some money.
My point is,
you don’t really know what the budget is.
I think it's safe to say money is tight
And with a calculator you can figure out about how much we’ve spent so far. We also know that they’ve treated the tax threshold delicately over the years, yes they’ve gone over but it was always strategic and not by a whole lot. We’re getting right up on that number now and most indications from the people who spend time with the team is that they aren’t going to splurge, they didn’t even try to big on Darvish. I think it’s absolutely reasonable to expect that they will sign a closer or a decent starter, but not both.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Then it better be a starter.
We need that a hell of a lot more than we need a closer, as evidenced by all the successful closers around baseball last year.
Either Melancon gets the role, with Bard as a SP or Bard gets the role, with Melancon setting up.
Anything else for closer is a waste of resources when we clearly need more SPs.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
This, a billion times this.
I’m just afraid that there is this prevalent baseball theory that a closer isn’t a closer unless they’ve saved 30 games somewhere and makes north of $10M dollars, and compelled by that archetype they’re going to go out and get one because it’s the thing to do.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Which is why it seems to be the market inefficiency to exploit right now...
Hell, if we could trade Bard for a #4 starter because someone thought he could be their closer, I’d say do it.
If other teams overvalue the closer’s role enough to pay Joe Nathan $7 million over two years, then let’s be the team ahead of the curve, working with young, cheap fireball closers (a la Papelbon early on in his tenure, and in 2012… Daniel Bard!!)
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Now would certainly be a good time for Ben
To show he learned something from the boy genius about exploiting the market.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I think they probably know they're going to do with Bard right now.
Bobby V. said he’s only going to start ST as a starter, meaning get up to 18 or 20 innings, than they’ll sit down and discuss everything. Meaning they probably just want him to prepare as starter in the winter so he doesn’t have his normal fatigue period at the end of the season when he’s a reliever.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 14, 2011 10:38 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t think you let a guy who has appeared to fatigue after 60 innings each of the last two years, prepare in the offseason with a starter mindset and then make him pitch many more innings than he should all in an effort to make him less fatigued. You give him starter innings in ST if you want to see if he can start, other wise you’re just going to get him fatigued earlier because he’s entering the regular season with more mileage on his arm than he’s used to.
They’re giving him 18-20 in ST because they don’t know what they’re doing with him yet.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
You prepare differently in off-season to start.
You build up arm and shoulder strength and endurance so you can prepare for 200 ininngs or more. If they think that his conditioning was bad during the winter when he was preparing to be a reliever, maybe they think having him prepare as a Starter will make his conditioning better. ST innings aren’t intense at all so he wouldn’t be fatigued that much.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 14, 2011 11:18 PM EST up reply actions
Well perfect!
Why haven’t they always done that with all of our pitchers?!
The reason is because they actually intend to slot Bard into the starter role if he can handle it. If they wanted to build his arm strength for him to be reliever your press release is, “We think Bard is going to be our closer this year, we’re giving him a more strenuous offseason workout regime to help him be better.” Not “We think Bard can start in MLB, we’re going to give him a tougher offseason workout and give him a lot of innings in ST to see if he can handle it and go from there.”
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
18-20 innings is four starts in ST.
That’s not a lot. They have him on the 2-4-6-6 inning schedule that the other starters are on. Aceves will be doing the same thing. What will it hurt if he’s stretched out in less stressful innings and better conditioned for later part of the season? If they think that will make him a better reliever, which is probably where he’ll utimately wind up, wouldn’t that make the team better? The two main reasons they haven’t acquired a starter are they weren’t going to be in on CJ Wilson or Mark Buerhle and they probably want to see how the Yu Darvish posting will play out so they know where other teams sit. If a team with a loaded farm system wins the bidding, and they have five starters, maybe that will cause them to either trade one of their starters, or take them out of the bidding for the some other pitchers the Sox have their eyes on.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 14, 2011 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
No of course it’s not a lot, but they aren’t doing it for shitzngiggles! They aren’t doing it under the auspices of making him a better reliever! They’re doing it under the auspices of actually making him a starter. Which itself isn’t a terrible idea.
It’s how they follow up with it that can be an epic frickin disaster. This only works if they plan for him to be a starter, he works as a starter and they buy Madson now (note I don’t want Madson or any other closer, but its the expected move). Or if they recognize it’s a bad idea now and buy a starter now and just move Bard back to the pen.
But if they plan on him being a starter and they buy Madson and he sucks as a starter, we’re left without a legitimate starting pitcher at the back of the rotation. Or if they just wait until ST to make anymove, all the respectable options will be gone, and that will be a disaster.
This is a dance for a team with more money who can afford the contingency plans, we can only afford one and we can’t afford to wait. So it’s a guessing game and guessing games have notoriously been against us lately.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I'll say this once and only once.
Not all the good starters that can help the Sox are gone. They are probably like the teams are right and are now waiting to see where Yu Darvish goes. That way they can have a more defined market. If they see he goes to the Rangers or another team with some excess starters that may make that spot less atttractive to them. And also opens up another trade possibility for the Sox. Meaning they probably won’t get a god deal from them. If they sign now, and then their team winds up with Darvish, unless they get a no trade clause in their contract, they might be the first to go. And let’s say he goes to a team that has been mentioned as trading for starter, that team will probably be out of the market for a starter, so less competition for the Sox, therefore they could probably get a better deal for them and not have to give up the whole farm.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
I don't know how many more ways I can say
That not knowing now what Bard is going to be at the end of ST at this very moment means we’re probably going to be screwed, because if they do wait all the starters WILL be gone by the end of ST or if they make their decision now on what Bard will be they better hope to Jobu that that’s what happens, ESPECIALLY if they say he’s going to be a starter and buy a reliever, because if that shit don’t work out it’s going to be ugly.
As it stands there is no indication at all that the team knows what Bard is going to be at the end of ST, it’s a lot of ‘wait and see’ and that’s a bad idea for a team that can’t afford all the contingency plans and who’s need is so bad that we can’t wait until the end of ST to make a move.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Ok. Three questions for you.
If the Sox aren’t intent on adding a starter, why are they still interested in guys like Saunders, Gio, Roy Oswalt and a few others we don’t know about right now? Don’t you think that they would drop out of the sweepstakes and say they are happy with their team? Lastly, don’t you think this whole Bard a starter thing could just be a negotiating tactic?
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 1:01 AM EST up reply actions
Who says they're interested?
It’s rumors. You’re also forgetting that we need 2 two dos zwie starting pitchers. Not one. That answers question 1 and 2.
As for three, it could be, but what if it isn’t? A better negotiating tactic would be to say, we have (had) Kyle Weiland, Felix Doubront, Tazawa, Miller and Aceves and are confident that with that group we have our starter. Instead they said “we think we want our closer in waiting to start.” If anything it makes them sound MORE desperate to find a starter and it would drive prices up rather than down.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Well one is probably going to be Aceves.
So there’s one spot filled. So they really only have to fill one spot. We have still have Dubront, Tazawa, Miller as well, I haven’t heard anybody from our FO say they weren’t confident in those guys.Just because they want to see if Bard can start in ST, doesn’t mean they think those guys are garbage. Some very credible people say that they are interested in those pitchers, and there are probably more that we don’t even know about.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 1:14 AM EST up reply actions
There have been no indications that Aceves "is probably" going be the other
He said he wants to start, I’m also fairly certain he prepares as a starter every year. He too would be a bad choice to start.
We’re in on just above every pitcher every year, they kick tires, its what every office does, it would be irresponsible not to.
An actual negotiating tactic would be to say they are confident in those guys to fill the role and use it as leverage. Saying they want to convert a guy who hasn’t started in years is just sounding desperate.
They aren’t saying this stuff for fun, they ACTUALLY want to try Bard out as a starter. And as I’ve restated several times, that probably won’t end well unless he actually works. And I really don’t think he will. It’s not a best of both worlds sort of idea, it’s an idea that ties our hands until we know what he’s going to be. They can change their mind for sure, but so far it’s certain they want to try and get Bard to start.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
This is just winding up in a circular arguement.
The Sox have said the same thing about Aceves they said about Bard, he’ll be stretched out in ST. I don’t think the Sox are dumb enough to take two of their best relievers from last year and put them both in the starting rotation, knowing what that would do to the bullpen.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 1:35 AM EST up reply actions
It's getting circular because I'm pretty sure
You don’t believe in what you think you believe. Arguing with you sort of turns into the equivalent of trying to punch a waterfall, too fluid.
You started off saying that you think they’ll get both a starter and a reliever so it doesn’t matter if Bard succeeds or fails to then trying to explain it is just an effort to make Bard’s arm stronger to then saying it was a negotiating ploy.
So you went from thinking they’re actually trying to do it to not thinking they’re trying to do it without even incidently agreeing with my overall and constant point that this just isn’t a very good idea. Kudos, I wasn’t sure that was possible.
Reading tone: lighthearted joking.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
No it's gettin circular because we can't agree on what the motivation is.
I mean they have come out publicilly and said they want Bard to start, you think that means that it’s set in stone that he will. My point is that what they publicly may be different from what they are saying privately. When negotiating with teams or agents they might be saying what you said they should have said publicly, we have a bunch of guys that we believe we can start, and Bard is just one of those guys. We honestly don’t know what their plan is, but they probably do.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 9:42 AM EST up reply actions
I don’t think it’s set in stone that he WILL start, I think they really want to attempt to make him a starter. Which means they don’t know what he’s going to be by the end of ST which is the problem I have with this plan.
If they commit to that group of guys for their starters well they better hope that they work out as as starters. Otherwise if none of them work, we aren’t going to have a legit 4-5 in the rotation.
I think they would much, much, much better off if they just name Bard closer, Melancon set up and devote the rest of the offseason money to legitimate starting pitching options. That is a plan.
Saying they want Bard to start with intent to actually try it, isn’t a very good plan depending on how they go about doing it because there is a lot of guesswork involved. They either wait until they know in ST to fill the other hole which isn’t good, or try and fill the hole now by guessing where he’ll be, if they guess wrong, it’s bad and if they guess right there is some luck involved. Most of the ways that plan ends aren’t very good for the team.
I just think they’re trying to be too clever, that Ben feels he needs to do something to get out of the shadow of Theo and his ‘Big Papi’ idea is to try and make Bard a starter even though it weakens a weakened pen, has little probability of success and FA bullpen arms are abnormally expensive.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Perception is reality.
You percieve they are trying to make Bard a starter, which from their comments it sounds like they are. But unless your sitting on their daily meetings you can’t really know what they are thinking. Both Ben C. and Larry Lucchino have said a starter will be added to this rotation. They’ve also said that this pitching staff will take “all winter” to fill out. My point is what they are saying publicly may be different from what they are thinking privately. As I laid out above having Bard prepare as starter should help him be a reliever. Alex Speier, from WEEI, points out that the starters market won’t really heat up until the Yu Darvish posting is over, and the fact that Christmas is coming up and the players don’t want to have their family members constantly questioning them on where they are playing next year may cause them to panic and sign with a team.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
Any pitcher with a brainstem
Should know that Darvish has absolutely no impact on their signing. Largely because half of baseball didn’t bid on him and most know that their bid wasn’t nearly enough. Likely only 2-3 teams really wanted him and actually had the capital to go out and make a demanding bid and those teams know who they are. There are still 20-something teams that know they aren’t getting Darvish and can push along as normal. Plus, what Darvish gets in his contract doesn’t set the market for any other pitcher, he’s a special category. It’s Wilson and Buerhle that set the American starting pitching market this season, and that’s set.
I have no faith in Bard, Aceves, Doubront, Miller, Wilson or Tazawa to be starting pitchers, I think they could all be bullpen arms though and good ones. I think we should be looking for 2 starting pitchers to add AT LEAST, let’s be real, when was the last season in which we only needed 5 starting pitchers to get through it. Approaching it like one of those guys we already have is going to be the one isn’t a good idea.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
It's not that Darvish sets the market
it’s the fact that he’s looked at the Best available pitcher on the market right now. And there’s been mixed reports about whether he’ll even sign here. So if he doesn’t sign with his team, that team will be desperate to get a pitcher, and it maybe late to the block so whatever remaining pitchers left will get a hell of a deal. Has the FO said they won’t be adding more depth in the Starting Pitching department? I may have missed something. Have you thought about this Bard starting thing like this? Maybe he approached them after the season and said he wasn’t happy with his conditioning and during the past season he may have talked to one of the pitchers, like Neftali Feliz or another pitcher that prepared during the off-season as a starter but was ultimately put back in the bullpen, and they told him they’ve been better conditioned because of that. I just think you maybe thinking about this too much. I’m sure they are working to get both starters and relievers, but these deals do take some time to complete. I highly doubt they are just sitting around not trying to not get a legit starter just because they have said that Bard and whoeever is else preparing to be a starter, and some guys like Ross Olhendorf for AAA.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions
If that were true
Then pitching free agency wouldn’t have begun yet. Wilson could’ve leveraged the shit out of LA. The only pitcher left that could really benefit from Darvish is Jackson, Kuroda much less so. No other pitchers are on the market really stand to gain much more, Saunders isn’t going to go skyrocket to a $10M pitcher.
They’re not saying they want Bard to be better conditioned, they say they want to see if he can start. It’s totally different. If it’s like you say, there are a billion and one ways to write up a press release that doesn’t read to the fans as “we think Bard may be able to start so we’re going to give it a shot in ST”. The release is “We and Bard feel that maybe his conditioning hasn’t been the best towards the end of the year, we’re going to try something different and let him start in ST and then move him back to the pen.”
As I’ve said, you don’t really gain anything in negotiating by leveraging him as a starter. So either they don’t know what he’s going to be in ST, or they are mentally unable to think through how their actions are going to affect their ability to draw other players.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Leverage is leverage.
If the Red Sox had come out and said “We need a boat load of starters.” They’d have absolutely no leverage at all. But by saying “We think Bard, Aceves, Dubront, and other internal options can start.” that is leverage. Why announce your true plans when it’s not necessary?
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Because the leverage they are using is dumb.
I mean, if we had Atlanta’s farm that’s one thing, but we don’t we don’t have half a dozen top 100 pitching prospects. We’re saying we want to start a guy who was an ace reliever who hasn’t started in 4 years. It sounds desperate, not like leverage.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
haha there should be a different font for different tones
here is some good news for you
“We believe he’s definitely capable of closing and capable of pitching in the ninth inning for us. But those are questions that Bobby, with help from his pitching coach in spring training, will answer and figure out the right roles for everyone.”
I know you don’t agree, but I still think that Bard ends up as the closer in a pretty damn good bullpen.
If they do view Melancon as someone who can close
Then the trade is a good one (I still think we didn’t get enough value out of Lowrie though). I’m not one of those who thinks we need to get someone as good as Papelbon to close, that they need a death stare and ice water in their veins, I think it can really be any decent reliever. I just didn’t think that Ben would think so too, baseball wisdom as it stands says he does need another Papelbon.
I’d be ecstatic if Bard ends up closer, assuming of course that they knew that is where he would be and bought starting pitching instead.
It’s the large potential that they wait til spring training to try and find pitching when they realize their current plan is a bad one that worries me.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
The problem is
Is that they’re penciling Bard in at two positions and he can only be one, they will fill the other. There are plenty of candidates now to fill the hole, there won’t be when spring training rolls around. This isn’t a high probability change either, so if they do buy now, they better have nailed down what they thing think the result will be at the end of spring training.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
But when?
ST is far, far, far too late to fill the other hole. They could add two starters in the next couple of weeks and that would be OK because they could put Bard back in the bullpen where he belongs.
But even thinking about putting him in the rotation during THIS offseason is just a dumb, dumb, dumb idea if they intend to follow through with it.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
In your opinion it is.
I don’t think he will be in the rotation, and I certainly don’t they aren’t trying to acquire SP because they think Bard and a few others are going to be preparing as starters.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
How is it not dumb if they intend to follow through with it?
All of your ‘maybe this’ or ‘what if that’ are totally predicated on them not following through with it.
What if they actually mean what they actually said? I’m operating under Occam’s Razor here, usually the most straight forward explanation is the correct one. They say they want to see if he can start, it’s rather likely that they want to see just that.
Assuming that true, how many more outcomes of that are good compared to bad?
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Here's a question
Why should they reveal their true plans for Bard or anybody else on December 15?
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
Because frankly
No one really gives a shit what they do with Bard. If they use him as a closer it’s what everyone expects and if they move him to a starter no one has an expectations of him being any good.
There is no good reason for them to say it if they didn’t have the intentions too. Like I said, the most straightforward answer is usually the right one. If we were dealing with the CIA or MI:6, yeah there would be solid reason to doubt their word, but this is baseball and the Boston Red Sox, they probably mean what they say.
What if they are speaking the truth? How do they continue building the team with the money they have and with no way to accurately guess what Bard will be by the end of ST?
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
You seem to give a shit
What they are doing with Bard. My point is they say they want to see Bard Starting because it’s intriguing. But that doesn’t mean they are just going to do absolutely nothing in terms of SP. They will bring in Starters, and let Bard fail as a starter in ST, then put him in the Bullpen, which makes the club stronger. So your saying you don’t doubt them when they say they will let Bard start in ST but you doubt them when they have said they’ll do anything to improve the club? That probably means bring in some starters, one probably via trade, then maybe a couple on minor league deals, and then let them compete for the fiftth starter.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
Your confusing that
I give a crap about how they go about building a team without knowing what Bard becomes, not what he becomes, I have preferences but it’s the consequences that bother me. Plus, I don’t matter to the teams plans, the people I’m talking about are the other teams, players and agents, and they don’t care.
I don’t doubt them in either, what I’m saying is that one directly impacts the other. How can you improve the team without knowing what your need is going to be? What if they buy 2 starters at good money and then Bard is a frickin awesome starter? One of those starters ended up being a waste. Or if they buy a starter and a reliever and he fails, they just blew money on a reliever (which they should never ever ever do in the first place). If Melancon is indeed the guy they hope to bring in as closer, good, but I’ve watched teams operate for years, somehow the appeal of a big name big money reliever wins out over logic.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Ok. But you make it seem like they
have said, “We won’t make any moves for starters until we find out what happens with Bard in ST.” Which they haven’t. If Bard’s an awesome starter and they bring in a few starters, maybe one those guys goes on the DL, or maybe they have signed to one of the two to a minor league deal so they can just send him down triple A for when they need him to come up. At his intial press conference Ben C. said they need starting pitching depth, I doubt they are just sitting on their hands waiting till ST to try and acquire that depth.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 8:03 PM EST up reply actions
My problem is that they don't own Fort Knox
If we can assume that they 1)do intend for Bard to try out being a starter and that they 2) do intend to improve the team, the budget is such that they can’t make mistakes. Point 1 makes Point 2 quite a bit trickier considering baseball wisdom and knowing that there isn’t a single person in that front office with the ability of clairvoyence.
Plus the sort of pitchers that we can afford to put on the DL or sign to split major/minor league deals aren’t the sort that are going to make the type of impact we need unless we sign them in bulk. I think they may, emphasis may, be able to squeak out two passable starters, or a starter and a reliever.
But sitting on the hands is what they shouldn’t do, but point 1 dictates that they may have to because 50% of the starting spots are tied up with a low probability option that could cost a lot to fill.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I agree with you.
But I just think this whole dialouge about they won’t make a move for a starter or two till they see what happens with Bard in ST is BS, is my main point. I think they will make a few moves for starters, and who knows if it’s a trade for one, they may be able to get the other team to eat a little money if the guy has a huge contract or maybe they figure out how to get a low-cost starter via trade.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 8:35 PM EST up reply actions
ugh
ugh ugh ugh.
Now I’ll be pissed if we don’t sail way past the luxury tax threshold.
Way past it.
If they pick up Yu Darvish and Paul Maholm next I'll be happy
If they go with Aaron Cook and Zumaya and call it an offseason I’m burning something down
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 14, 2011 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
Zumaya?
Please tell me you pulled that out of thin air.
And, yes, if we go all in and over the luxury tax now, I’ll be fine… but we better add some real SP soon. Like Kuroda/Darvish/Maholm and Roy Oswalt as insurance.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
no, we've been linked to Zumaya
who is definitely interesting, if it’s a minor league deal. Can he still throw 105 mph, or whatever it was?
Didn't his arm finally explode?
What’s the track record on guys that throw 105 mph coming back after an injury?
I mean, if he still hits 100 mph on the guns, that’d be fine…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
do not like at all
Shoppach was a great signing, cheap and all. I liked the Melancon trade. But WTF is this?
by dennet on Dec 14, 2011 3:54 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
actually, I take this back
I misread that as $3.5MM per year. And I mistakenly assumed Punto would bring Scutaro-like defense. Neither were true. Now I feel dumb.
by dennet on Dec 14, 2011 4:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
So far, I really like what Cherington is doing.
He’s gotten cheap depth at tough defensive positions (with guys who can actually play the positions) and gotten a cheap ass, young closer type. Plus, maybe just maybe, Punto can hit now. He reminds me a lot of the Scutaro signing: a guy coming off a career year who’s getting older, but has become a more disciplined hitter. This is much better than the last few years of Theo.
Yeah. This move makes no sense.
Unless there’s a corresponding move for a starter we haven’t heard about using an infielder who could make an impact on this team this year.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 14, 2011 3:56 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, that's ugly.
There goes the money we saved by trading Lowrie’s spot on the roster.
WTF?!?!
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Ha ha ha!
Just be sure you buy your season tickets.
Again, if we go well over the luxury tax this year, all of this worry is for nothing. If we don’t spend more than $8 million from here on out to stay under, won’t you care that we signed a back up middle infielder for $1.5 million a year when we just traded a cheaper guy away?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Punto vs. Lowrie vs. Aviles
G: 63 / 88 / 91
PA: 166 / 341 / 309
AVG: .278 / .252 / .255
OBP: .388 / .303 / .289
WAR: 1.5 / .3 / .3
Take it for what you will.
by Christopher B on Dec 14, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
Well, that looks positive.
Still not sure why we needed that out of a back up utility IF, though.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Sorry
Neglected to clarify that the stats posted are for the 2011 season only and are from baseball-reference.com as of today. I used the season totals for each, given Aviles was brought in from KC.
by Christopher B on Dec 14, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
though, you gotta mention
that Punto had an unrealisitcally good 2011. He’s 34, and at this point it’s pretty well established that his 2011 numbers were not who he actually is
I Would Agree That 2011 Isn't Typical For Him
I would also reitorate that his sample size is also smaller than the others. If his performance is markedly better off the bench, then he’s coming into a situation where he has at least a chance of replicating his most recent success if Aviles and Scutaro remain reasonably healthy.
by Christopher B on Dec 14, 2011 4:39 PM EST up reply actions
of course batting lines for a position
that should rarely be batting are pretty moot anyway. If either one of those three are getting significant playing time then we were in trouble anyway. Now, defense on the other hand….
well, the left side of our infield is Youk and Scutaro
Which makes me fairly sure that we’re gonna see more days with Aviles and Punto in there than you think
If this was truly a move for his glove...
… why not just roll the dice with Iglesias? Punto’s ability to play 3B too? Well, you could just move Scutaro over there unless he’s injured (or Scutaro to 2B for Pedroia’s day off).
I mean, if we’re talking about just the defensive side of Punto, Iglesias has a better glove, right? I think they have to believe that he can platoon a bit with the bat, based on his performance in 2011 or they wouldn’t be making this move.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Maybe they have gotten some interest from some team
that surprisingly wants to trade for Iglesias. Same with Middlebrooks, they may need to move one or the other for a SP.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
If that interest results in Gio or Wandy...
… I don’t think it’ll make me any happier.
(Though, Wandy’s on the Astros, right? So if we were going to trade for him, it probably would have been part of the Melancon deal, right?)
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Yes he is. So I doubt that will happen.
Esp. when you hear that the Astros won’t eat any of his contract. It could result in Gio (I would not endorse that) or another pitcher we don’t know about yet.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 5:51 PM EST up reply actions
Well at least I can stop saying "or Wandy" about trades...
… now I just don’t want Gio or Bailey.
No deals with Billy Beane. Not convinced Ben will get the better end of those deals.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
How about Frank Wren?
Don’t the Braves still need a SS?
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 15, 2011 10:22 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe Ben will be sick that day.
Larry will be handling the negotiations.
by aubatron2011 on Dec 15, 2011 10:35 PM EST up reply actions
I would say regarding this
why not just roll the dice with Iglesias?
Is because Iglesias’ hitting needs alot of work and this way he can get at-bats everyday in AAA. If he can improve his hitting by doing that to become more of a “line drive to the gap” type hitters it would fill a big hole for several years.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 16, 2011 8:37 AM EST up reply actions
That was Punto's career year at this age.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I take it
as not really telling me much of anything simply because Punto performed far above his career numbers.
by The Name is Dalton on Dec 14, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
$3.75 million
Isn’t a lot over two years. Basically what Lowrie would get in arbitration. Less bat, better glove, better able to fill in at SS. Or, read this now that it’s up: http://www.overthemonster.com/2011/12/14/2636339/nick-punto-signs-two-year-deal-red-sox
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
$3.5M, whoops
And it’s $3M with $500K in incentives, anyway.
Twitter: @Marc_Normandin
by Marc Normandin on Dec 14, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions
I read that as per year for some stupid reason
I suspect others here might have too. At $1.87 million per year, it’s more or less neutral. Maybe dead weight, but not quite a self-inflicted wound.
by dennet on Dec 14, 2011 4:32 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Love this deal for the Sox
Melancon has good stuff that is capable of potential closing in the future and he could be our set-up man this season. Very cheap and under team control for a while, and we could have signed a well known name for a heck of a lot more money who Melancon is just as good as.
I’m not a big fan of Lowrie either, injured way too much. I prefer Aviles over Lowrie because Aviles is much better at defense and his bat is the same, or maybe a little less, but still.
And Weiland has the ceiling of Melancon, so I’d rather have the real deal.
by greenlemonade102 on Dec 14, 2011 3:42 PM EST reply actions
Re:Punto
I’ll just direct you here in regards to my thoughts: Red Sox to Sign Kelly Shoppach
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
So glad to see Lowrie out of here
tink, butcher, wimp, on a team he belongs with.
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Not as happy as other people about the Lowrie deal
I loved him. Everyone wanted to get rid of Ellsbury last year. Said he was injury proned, not tough, and not a team player. “Injury Prone” is such a BS thing in my opinion. Past injuries dont mean your more likely to get more in the future. Its all luck, or bad luck. I think Lowrie was poised to break out. Now he will do it for the Astros. Good for them I guess.
True... if Ellsbury had been traded in December 2010, I imagine it would have gotten the same reaction from OTM.
However, I don’t think Lowrie (for as much as I loved him, and started a write in campaign for him to be the AL SS All Star last year) will do quite as well.
I do wish him well… and hope that Melancon is actually worth what we gave up to get him. Last time we did a deal like this with the Astros, it was Larry Anderson for Jeff Bagwell, right?
(I KID! I KID!!! I know that was a deadline deal that can be argued to be a win-win for both teams, since we made the playoffs in part due to Larry Anderson’s contributions down the stretch, and the Astros got a centerpiece for their franchise for years to come…)
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Yeah i just hate getting rid of these young guys
Esspecially when they look like they have some potential Justin Masterson
So we just keep hanging onto players because they have "potential"
Then make no moves because a few didn’t work in our favor. Seems kinda paranoid to me. I’ve seen MANY more “potentials” flame out or not make it at all
Not at all
Just get something better in return. Hanley/Beckett,Lowell
Obviously Hanley was at a much different level then Lowrie but with how bad our shortstop position is I wish we held onto Jed
Well, Scutaro hasn't been bad the last couple years.
However, it might still be the Hanley deal that has me not happy about trading Jed away as well.
Of course, for every time we trade a player too early… we held onto one we should have moved: Craig Hansen, Michael Bowden, Felix Doub… oh wait, he’s still here and could be in our 2012 rotation…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Not that I know of.
My point being… a few years ago, teams were offering quite a lot for him, and we wouldn’t trade him. So we held onto him too long.
Much like I was joking that Doubront is the latest in that string… there were teams offering for Doubront, and we held onto him thinking (I think) that he’d be in the 2011 rotation right up until he showed up to spring training out of shape last year.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Oh I see.
You’re right, we probably should have dealt Bowden years ago. I’m not sure we should have any faith in him anymore. I was confused because I’m pretty sure we did trade Hansen, and as part of the package for Jason Bay no less.
I think we did...
… but he was supposed to be the closer before Papelbon, so once again… we got offered more for him than when we eventually packaged him for Bay (IIRC).
So, I felt by the time we shipped him to the Pirates, everyone knew he wasn’t going to pan out, and we’d held him too long to maximize the value.
I was picking one guy we traded, but traded too late; one guy we haven’t traded that we should have traded already, and then Doubront is my hypothetical next example.
It was complicated, to be sure.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
"Past injuries dont mean your more likely to get more in the future"
Uh, completely and utterly false, depending upon the injury. See Drew: Back, Knee problems that crop up and keep cropping up, severe tendinitis, etc. I mean sure if its something like a broken bone that can be fixed and that’s it
But man I’ve got shoulder and elbow tendinitis and they keep coming back every morning
Not what I meant
First of all what kept him out for the first time was a sickness not an injury so that shouldnt count. Second my point was that injury prone, in my opinion, means that your just someone who is likely to get injured no matter what. Meaning one year you break your arm and the next year since your injury prone you break your other arm. They are two separate injuries that are unrelated. So my point was that just because hes been hurt in the past, doesnt guarantee he will be in the future.
In the most part yes
But in relation to Lowrie, it was a broken wrist, sprained ankle, mono, chronic fatigue syndrome and a nerve problem. The only two of these that are related are the mono and chronic fatigue.
Essentially he’s had 3 injuries (counting mono as a fluke and the chronic fatigue as a typical after-affect) in 6 years. The wrist was the worst was mismanaged and cost him a lot more time than it should have. I think his injury-prone ness is huigely overstated in this community.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
And a lot of people were calling Ellsbury soft for a similarly mismanaged injury last December.
I know, different injuries… but I think we should really reconsider how we’re categorizing injuries.
Yes, the wrist injury was mismanaged… yes, it seems to have affected his hitting left-handed. However, when he was on a tear in April 2011, he was hitting from both sides of the plate, wasn’t he??
So, to me… he seemed recovered from that injury when he had another fluke injury in a bruised nerve that affected both his hitting and his defense.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
And Victor raked the whole time he was here.
Just wanna make it clear for the history books that that was a good deal.
It was...
… as was the Bagwell for Anderson deal, even if we didn’t win the World Series.
Hindsight tells you that Bagwell would have a great career, and Masterson looks much better now than he did with the Sox. However, when those deals were made, they were both the right move for the Sox.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Agreed
Bagwell had Boggs and scott Cooper in front of him, and larry Anderson was down right nasty.The gamble was, he would help them advance and they did. What Bagwell would have meant to the ’90s Sox is something worth contemplating.
3B Bagwell
SS Nomar
2B Valentin
1B Vaughn
Wow!!
And
I could swallow that trade now,if Victor had ben aggresively pursued when he got here. Then,you would have your DH covered for years by a guy who could also catch and play 1B.Instead,we have the still productive Papi and his prima donna act, V-Mart tearing it up in Detroit, and Masterson in Cleveland. Nice work, Theo.
I believe someone in a Quentin Tarantino movie once said
“NEIN NEIN NEIN NEIN!”
This offseason is a turning into a fustercluck of Gargantuan proportions. Running a successful GM out of town, trading legit assets for relief pitchers, Nick ****** Punto; all Larry Lucchino needs to do now is personally kneecap Beckett and Lester to complete the sick cycle.
LL, to go with the branded Fenway Sod and Fenway Bricks, I have the Official Music Video of the Red Sox 2011-12 offseason
Monster carcass in Fens this morning, bat splinters on burst stuffing. This team is afraid of me. I have seen its true face. The players are inveterate quitters and the pitchers are full of fail, and when the playoffs are within reach, they will all choke. The accumulated filth of all their beer and clubhouse rivalries will foam up about their waists, and all the fat Texans and horrid relievers will look up and shout, "Save us!"... and I'll look down and whisper, "NO."
Stupid laptop not working properly
Video here.
Monster carcass in Fens this morning, bat splinters on burst stuffing. This team is afraid of me. I have seen its true face. The players are inveterate quitters and the pitchers are full of fail, and when the playoffs are within reach, they will all choke. The accumulated filth of all their beer and clubhouse rivalries will foam up about their waists, and all the fat Texans and horrid relievers will look up and shout, "Save us!"... and I'll look down and whisper, "NO."
Well, that can't be unseen. Should've known better.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
Yeah, I'm already frustrated enough.
No reason to click that link at all. Not going to do it.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
To anyone who hasn't clicked on that link yet
don’t.
You've got to know your limitations. I don't know what your limitations are. I found out what mine were when I was twelve. I found out that there weren't too many limitations, if I did it my way.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 15, 2011 12:27 AM EST up reply actions
Don't be. You cannot unsee what there is to be seen in that link.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
That GM that you claim was run out of town left because of the mess he made.
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Merry Christmas Pesky
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
I've just been looking over his minor league numbers
and they’re implying to me that his awesome groundball % last year was not just a fluke. Which is exciting.
Well, that's another positive.
I really am trying to be my happy, cheery positive self.
Just sign me a starter or three, and I can go back to being me.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Woo hoo! 500 comments on a trade for Mark Melancon...
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Well... he is by far the biggest addition to this team from last year so far.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
How fucking sad is that?
By this time last year we already had Adrian.
You build on failure. You use it as a stepping stone. Close the door on the past. You don't try to forget the mistakes, but you don't dwell on it. You don't let it have any of your energy, or any of your time, or any of your space.
-Johnny Cash
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 15, 2011 10:24 PM EST up reply actions
Well, I wouldn't be too concerned about the date
if it wasn’t for our very limited budget.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

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