Picking the Brains of the Red Sox faithful (from a Braves' faithful)

by ryan c on Nov 9, 2011 12:18 PM EST

OK, can we all pretend that September 2011 did not happen and that we're still extremely satisfied with the core of our teams? Now to business...

We seem to match up in needs for both teams. You guys need a SP. We need a SS and backup OF. What do you guys think are fair deals? My Braves' tinted glasses was pondering this trade scenario which is, self-admittedly, probably a bit homerish: Reddick and Lowrie for Jurrjens.

What in the Red Sox fan's eye, would be a fair trade scenario to meet both teams need? Thanks!

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Comments

Nah, Jurrjens is not very good.

by Sologub on Nov 9, 2011 12:28 PM EST reply actions

His 3.8 bWAR would’ve been very valuable as a #3 starter behind Beckett’s 6.2 and Lester’s 4.8.

Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?

by ryan c on Nov 9, 2011 12:58 PM EST reply actions

Would've been being the key word.

Velocity is down, strand rate was unsustainable, BABIP was .269, K/9 was 5.33 (!!).

I’d give up Lowrie alone for him, probably, but I don’t even know if he’s worth that.

by Sologub on Nov 9, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed on advanced metrics looking rough for Jair. However, for whatever reason, he’s always outperfomed his peripherals.

Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?

by ryan c on Nov 9, 2011 1:15 PM EST up reply actions

Relatively soft division and National League? But I wouldn't trust him to keep it up here.

by Sologub on Nov 9, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions

NL East a soft division? Compared to what?

It’s a pitching division with the best pitchers in the NL (statistically and according to Fangraphs). What division in the NL is better? In fact, aside from the AL East, what division in baseball is better?

Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?

by ryan c on Nov 9, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions

Uh...yeah, the pitching is ok...

But what does that have to do with Jurrjen’s performance? The hitting was pretty bad except for when the Phillies were actually on.

by Sologub on Nov 9, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions

There's an argument there...

Maybe the hitters don’t hit as well because the pitching is better.

Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?

by ryan c on Nov 9, 2011 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

It could be that

or it could have a lot more to do with the whole DH thing than anything else.

by wolf9309 on Nov 9, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions

true.

Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?

by ryan c on Nov 9, 2011 6:05 PM EST up reply actions

I mean, Lowrie alone I'd give up in a heartbeat

because he just can’t stay healthy and, for as negative as his stats look, Jurrjens IS a starting pitcher.

by wolf9309 on Nov 9, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions

Call me crazy, but I still think Lowrie has a chance of getting healthy and returning to form.

But Jurrjens probably is worth his value, or even a little more.

by Sologub on Nov 9, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

Ah what wonderful seasons we had!

Congrats on cruising easily to the wild card as expected. Too bad that the Brewers just managed to edge you out in the ALDS, but it was a good season. Not every team can be celebrating a world series win, like us joyful sox fans are right now!

Ooops, did I take the pretense too far?

As far as your suggestion, it’s not terrible as those are two guys that I’d say have a decent chance of being dealt this offseason- the biggest hangup is that, as has been pointed out above, advanced metrics (which the Sox tend to like) show him having an absolutely incredibly lucky season in 2011, and personally I’d have huge questions about how he’d handle the transition to the AL East. I think he just has too many warning signs for the Sox to be seriously interested in him, with their rotation already in the state it is in.

I feel like if this is the point they want to sell high on Jurrjens, there’s gotta be a team out there that would value him more based on face stats and might even give up more than you’re suggesting…

by wolf9309 on Nov 9, 2011 2:08 PM EST reply actions

Thanks for the reply...

If Boston studies advanced metrics then they’ll most definitely pass on Jurrjens. Nothing except the ol’ fashioned stats look good on him. What about Hanson?

Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?

by ryan c on Nov 9, 2011 3:04 PM EST up reply actions

well yeah, absolutely, definitely

by wolf9309 on Nov 9, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions

To be honest

I think there are better pitchers to be had than Jurrjens that Reddick/Lowrie package (along with a couple other lower level guys) could bring.

by The Name is Dalton on Nov 9, 2011 2:57 PM EST reply actions

Not that he isn't a good pitcher

But there are others I would rather have, even if it cost an extra prospect.

by The Name is Dalton on Nov 9, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions

I'd do it

For one of those Sox players as well as a low-level prospect

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by Conor Duffy on Nov 9, 2011 3:14 PM EST reply actions

Also, in several scenarios

Lowrie and to a lesser extent Reddick will be critical for the 2012 Sox. If Youk is retained, and I hope we do, the Jedi is his best backup. If Lava becomes the DH, Youk will spend alot of time at DH and Lowrie is again the best option at 3b. Assuming he is healthy and he can avoid another weird DL trip, he would be a key player. Although Beltran is in the rumor mill, likewise at this point Reddick is the best RF option possibly with the bat, but far and away with the glove; and also the best platoon option with someone like Willingham. They are both candidates to add to the offense in 2012, as well as defense.

by GerryT on Nov 9, 2011 3:22 PM EST via mobile reply actions

I would love Willingham,but he can’t play RF. What about moving Crawford to RF and signing Willingham as your LFder?

by Robert57 on Nov 30, 2011 9:45 AM EST up reply actions

Okay, I'm just wondering here

What do you guys in Atlanta think of Chipper right now? Do you want him to play out the end of his contract, or would you rather get a replacement for him now and ask him kindly to step down or transition to a backup role?

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by TheLoneDavid on Nov 9, 2011 4:26 PM EST reply actions

Still love Chipper...

Chipper’s health: He had 512 plate appearances this past year, which means he was relatively healthy for a 39 year old. I don’t expect that next year…

Chipper’s Offense: He’s obviously going to have to sit, but when he’s in the lineup, he can still hit (at least maintain an OPS over .800). His BABIP was 20 points lower than his career norm which could be the reason for the lower BA (.275) or he just might not be able to hit the ball with as much authority anymore (2nd year in a row that BABIP has dipped). However, just like everyone else in the Braves’ lineup, Chipper walked less this year than the norm. I expect that to come back next year.

Chipper’s defense: He has no range but can play the slow-roller better than anyone (and still has quick hands). He’s a below average defender at this point in his career.

Overall: He’s not proving to be worth his contract (according to Fangraphs), but if Chipper’s on the field 80% of the time, still putting up above average offensive numbers, and proves to be worth 75-80% of his contract, we’ll take it.

Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?

by ryan c on Nov 9, 2011 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

The Lost Year

What if Chipper hadn’t been out all of 1995. You could tack on a typical Chipper year, and add it to his lifetime stats.

by Robert57 on Nov 30, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions

Would you take:

Jose Iglesias and Ryan Kalish for Randall Delgado or Julio Teheran?

John Lackey: Boston hates you

by LesterJohn on Nov 9, 2011 5:49 PM EST reply actions

nope...

Iglesias, no matter the glove, has no real offensive ability whatsoever. Adding to that the Braves have 2 SS prospects that already seem to have more upside than Iglesias.

I do like Kalish, but one year of mediocre Minor League numbers and a SS we probably won’t use will not work…

Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?

by ryan c on Nov 9, 2011 6:08 PM EST up reply actions

How about:

Middlebrooks and Che-Hsuan Lin for Delgado or Teheran?

John Lackey: Boston hates you

by LesterJohn on Nov 9, 2011 6:13 PM EST up reply actions

Delgado and Teheran are elite pitching prospects

Middlebrooks and Lin, aren’t quite at that level and they play positions that are less valuable than say, a starting pitcher.

by ritz on Nov 10, 2011 12:05 AM EST up reply actions

Seems like a pretty fair deal.

I like Reddick and I think he’s a solid regular RF, but Kalish is a better player and makes Reddick expendable. Lowrie is another fringy starter type who can’t stay healthy. Between Reddick’s undisciplined approach and Lowrie’s health & streakiness I would not mind dealing either. They both would be nice fits in Atlanta. Reddick is quite athletic and plays a very good RF. Lowrie provides a SS option to start the year at least, or can backup Gonzalez if he returns. He can also provide depth at 2B and (especially) 3B.

Jurrjens has major health issues of his own and some performance issues more recently. He’s more of a 3/4 than what his supporters thought early on, especially in Fenway in the A.L.. Really though, this might be a light return for Jurrjens. Not because of what Jurrjens actually provides, but because I feel some team will value him higher than is reasonable (IMO) and be willing to outbid this kind of offer from Boston by a little.

Seems like a nice fit for a trade though, to be honest. I’m not the biggest Jurrjens fan but he would fit Boston’s back end needs well and if he gets hurt they have backup options (Doubront, Weiland, whatever AAA vet they bring in, etc…) while providing some nice upside. So… I don’t love the idea (from either team’s perspective) but its a fair trade.

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by alskor on Nov 10, 2011 2:00 AM EST reply actions

Agreed

I think if the Braves were seriously putting Jurrjens out there they could get a lot more out of a team in need of SP.

I know there was a deal in place with KC that included Lorenzo Cain but stalled when ATL asked for Wil Myers. That right there is pretty hefty price to pay and certainly beats out a Reddick/Lowrie package.

by ritz on Nov 10, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

True

But even without Wil Myers that deal is likely no longer on the table. KC dealt Melky not only to get a starting pitcher, but also to free up Center Field so Lorenzo can come up and start full time. I think it was their GM that came out and specifically said so.

But, your point is taken that someone out there will be desperate enough to overpay for Jurrjens.

by The Name is Dalton on Nov 10, 2011 8:08 PM EST up reply actions

How can you consider Weiland and Doubront as backup options when neither have accomplished anything yet?. Same thing for Kalish. The little bit we saw was not impressive,and he is injury prone.

by Robert57 on Nov 30, 2011 9:52 AM EST up reply actions

Thank you all...

for the conversation. It seems like most think Jurrjens for Reddick and Lowrie is an overpay for the Sox (which I probably agree with), and others think that the Sox will stay away from Jurrjens due to his poor showing on advanced metrics. Either way it goes, I hope both of our franchises can put 2011 behind us and have a very productive 2012. You guys work on taking care of the Yankees. We’ll work on taking care of Philly. Maybe we can meet in the 2012 World Series!

Thanks again.

(moderator, feel free to remove this post)

Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?

by ryan c on Nov 10, 2011 11:44 AM EST reply actions

Do you think the Gnats will be a serious contender in the neat future?

They undeniably have very high end talent in Harper, Strasburg, and the two Zimmerman(n)s, but I wonder if they’ll be able to put it all together.

by Sologub on Nov 10, 2011 11:57 AM EST up reply actions

The near future

Though ideally the future will be neat, as well

by Sologub on Nov 10, 2011 11:58 AM EST up reply actions

As of right now...

they have Morse in LF, Werth in RF, Zimmerman at 3B, Probably Espinosa at SS (but could be Desmond), Laroche at 1b, and Ramos (assuming good news will come out of this kidnapping) at Catcher. That’s a good offensive club. They are also targeting top CFs in trades and are looking for a starter to add to the likes of Strasburg and J. Zimmerman. There’s no doubt they can be a contender for the WC if all of their “ifs” fall into place. In 2013, with Harper and Rendon (who’ll probably transfer to 1b), they could very well contend for the NL East.

Just Beachy here. How 'bout you?

by ryan c on Nov 10, 2011 12:28 PM EST up reply actions

That kidnapping thing is crazy.

If he is found/released/escapes/rescued/whatever, you have to wonder if he will be mentally able to play baseball. I mean, that’s @#$%ed up right there.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

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by Bloggy on Nov 10, 2011 2:38 PM EST up reply actions

FA signings

The Nats have been rumored to have interest in most of the FA’s. They bombed out with Werth,but he could bounce back. Fielder could be someone to build around.

by Robert57 on Nov 30, 2011 10:15 AM EST up reply actions

If you guys would move back to Boston, we could really have some fun. The Braves could share Fenway,or renovate Braves Field. We would have two interleague series that would rock the city And like what almost happenned in ’48, we could meet in a subway series for the ages. Back then, the Braves already had Spahn and Sain,with Aaron and Matthews inTriple A. according to Glen Stout, in Red Sox Century, Tom Yawkey invited the Braves to play their games at Fenway.What kind of numbers would Aaron have posted playing in Fenway?

by Robert57 on Nov 30, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions

Done!

Are you kidding me? What is harder to acquire, a young, good ML starter or a oft-injured utility IF and a middle of the road OF prospect. Oh sure, Lowrie is going to be healthy and light the world on fire and Reddick is the next Jacoby Ellsbury, I forgot. C’mon, who is most likely to have a positive impact on thier team in 2012?
I would do this deal in a heartbeat.

by Scoop1981 on Nov 10, 2011 1:10 PM EST reply actions