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Armchair GM: Wrap Up And Vote

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With the fifth and final entry, Over The Monster's Armchair GM series ended. As you may recall, the series featured five of our writers outlining their plans for the Red Sox off season. All suggested different ways the Red Sox should proceed, from managers to free agents and trades.

Now comes the fun part. It's your turn to tell us how we did, to grade us relative to our peers. This post will provide an overview of each plan, links to each (in case you missed one of them), and an outline of the similarities and differences between them. Then, at the end, we'll ask you to vote for your favorite. So, without further ado, let's get reacquainted with Armchair GMs. I will present them in the order in which they appeared, and hope that I do each writer's plan some justice. (The writers names are linked to their stories.)

Marc Normandin

Backed by the belief that the 2011 team was better than their final record indicted, Marc didn't make radical changes. He added starting pitcher Wandy Rodriguez as the fifth starter in trade from the Astros, re-signed both Jonathan Papelbon (3 years, $30 million) and David Ortiz (2 years, $20 million), and let Jason Varitek and Tim Wakefield walk. He also brought back Erik Bedard. Possibly the wackiest move he suggested was hiring A.J. Hinch as manager. Hinch was unceremoniously fired by the Diamondbacks in 2010 after compiling a 89-123 record. Still, as wacky moves go, this wasn't all that wacky. Other than that, Marc attempted to get the band back together and make another run of it.

Matt Kory (Me!)

(To keep the flow of the article, I'm now going to talk about myself in the third person. I apologize in advance.) Matt's approach wasn't dissimilar to Marc's. The 2011 Red Sox just needed a bit of tweaking and some better luck. That tweaking took the form of hiring Phillies bench coach Pete Mackanin as the new manager. To solidify the starting pitching, Matt made an expensive run at acquiring Japanese starter Yu Darvish (about $120 million over 6 years). He also brought back Erik Bedard. The other free agent signing was Andruw Jones to play right field and platoon against lefties. Beyond that, he resigned Papelbon (3 years, $36 million) and Ortiz (whatever it takes) and was the only one to  bring Jason Varitek back as the back up catcher (1 year, $box of saltines). Mostly though, like Marc, the finished product didn't look vastly different than the 2011 team.

Matt Sullivan

Matt's plan was the most radical to date. He hired Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux as manager (note: this was before Maddux took himself out of the running for the position). He bolstered the starting staff by adding twitter star Brandon McCarthy of the A's in trade. McCarthy has a year before becoming a free agent. In free agency, Matt jumped into the deep end of the pool by adding Carlos Beltran to play right field. Matt proposed a 2 year, $32 million contract. Beyond that, Matt dumps Wakefield and brings Varitek back as a bench coach. Lavarnway is installed as the new back up catcher. Matt dumped Papelbon and brought back David Ortiz (2 years, $16 million). He also brought back Erik Bedard.

Ben Buchanan

Ben's plan started off by handing the keys to Pete Mackanin. Incidentally, Mackanin was the only managerial candidate to receive multiple votes. He also brought back Erik Bedard. Ben's two big acquisitions were Marlins starter Ricky Nolasco and former Indians center fielder Grady Sizemore. Nolasco would slot in as the fifth starter while Sizemore would be handed the keys to right field. Lavarnway would take over the back up catcher duties as Jason Varitek would not be re-signed. David Ortiz would be brought back on a two year deal to DH, while Jonathan Papelbon can take his histrionics elsewhere. To replace Paps, Ben brought in Phillies reliever Ryan Madson on a 3 year, $27 million deal (note: this eminently reasonable suggestion was made before Ruben Amaro, Jr. blew up the reliever market by offering a better deal than any reliever expected to the second or third best reliever on the market).

lone1c (whose actual name is Phil Collins, thus the pseudonym)

He also brought back Erik Bedard. Pete Mackanin was chosen as his manager du jour here as well. The big free agent addition was White Sox starter Mark Buehrle, who was targeted to reinforce the rotation (3 years, $45 million). Darren Oliver was brought in to bolster the pen. Wakefield and Papelbon were allowed to leave while David Ortiz was re-signed. Daniel Bard ascended to the closers role, only the second of the five plans to suggest that. Jason Varitek was given the position of pitching coach and Ryan Lavarnway acceded to back-up catcher-dom.

* * *

There are your summaries. Please feel free to click back and examine the plans more closely as space hasn't allowed me to include the subtleties of each.

Now it's time to register your opinion. What do you think? Which plan was the best? Which one would you choose?

Vote now! Our egos must know the truth!

Poll
Which plan for the off season do you prefer?
Marc Normandin: Wandy/Paps/Ortiz; No Tek
27 votes
Matt Kory: Yu Darvish/A.Jones/Tek/Paps/Ortiz
29 votes
Matt Sullivan: Beltran/McCarthy/Ortiz; Tek as bench coach, No Paps
36 votes
Ben Buchanan: Nolasco/McCarthy/Madson/Ortiz; No Tek or Paps
21 votes
lone1c: Buehrle/Oliver/Ortiz; no Paps; Tek as pitching coach
29 votes

142 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 41 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Comments

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Can't vote as I'm using my phone, but Matt was the closest to what I want so he gets my vote.

I would dump Papi and Paps (hello 4 high draft picks), sign Beltran to play RF/DH. Youk will also DH a third of the time and even Lavarnway. I’ll aggressively pursue Cespedes if scouts believe he’s for real. If he is, I will explore trading Ellsbury for a SP. I will ignore the Dice-K comparison when I submit the posting bid for Darvish.

by OzTiger on Nov 9, 2011 8:29 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

I hope we do a poll for the FanPosts, too.

There are some good ones in there.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Nov 9, 2011 9:06 AM EST reply actions  

I chose MattSullivan

…I was leaning towards lone1c, but can’t get behind Tek as pitching coach. Doesn’t make sense to me. I do like him as a possible bench coach, though.

Upon re-thinking it, though, I may actually lean towards Matt Kory. I’m not sold on Darvish, but I’m absolutely not against him. I’ve said this in previous posts, but I think given the Dice-K fiasco, the Sox are probably in the best position to figure out if Darvish’s game can translate to the North American game. If I remember correctly, I wasn’t big on the numbers Matt threw out, but Darvish as an option I’m okay with.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Nov 9, 2011 10:52 AM EST up reply actions  

Also, I'm largely against Sizemore, so no Ben for me.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Nov 9, 2011 11:28 AM EST up reply actions  

Bens plan was the best

somebody suggested hiring Tek as pitching coach…..I didnt read anymore after that.

by cds7c on Nov 9, 2011 9:33 AM EST reply actions  

It's hard to choose

Some of these plans are incomplete because the author suggested signing someone but then presented a contract offer that would never in a million years be accepted (or presented a trade offer that would never go through).

That said, I enjoyed this series of articles (and fanposts) a lot. I’d probably pick one of the Matts. I admit to being a sucker for Darvish, which would probably be my downfall if I were GM.

by Jake_W on Nov 9, 2011 10:04 AM EST reply actions  

Or how about this

The Matts as Co-GMs.

Marc takes over for Baird as VP of player personnel and scouting.

Buchanan is my VP of baseball operations.

If lone1c provides his real name on his application, he’ll be special assistant to the GMs. If he doesn’t, he’ll be the new Medical Director. He can’t do any worse than Dr. Gill.

by Jake_W on Nov 9, 2011 10:09 AM EST up reply actions  

I would rather have

Beltran/Darvish/Bedard than any of those

by Bososx13 on Nov 9, 2011 10:19 AM EST reply actions  

Problem is...

…that might not be realistic within the budget. You can’t re-sign Ortiz, Papelbon and bring in Darvish and Beltran.

Writer at Over The Monster. Follow me on Twitter! It'll be super awesome fun! @mattymatty2000

by Matthew Kory on Nov 9, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions  

About Wakefield

Many appeared to have the opinion that Wakefield needs to go. It seems like the argument is that he has been performing poorly so is not worth having anymore. But my question is: what would he do differently to get better results? It’s not like he’s lost velocity or location like “normal” pitchers in decline. He just lobs the ball up there. It’s not like he can control the location or movement on his knuckleball. The fact that his ERA has been high seems like dumb luck, just like the times he does well. I say that for $4m, that’s not so bad. If your concern is that he is old so more likely to get hurt and waste roster space, then I’m with you. Maybe the league is getting better at seeing and hitting his knuckleballs too… I don’t know. Just thinking out loud…

by yellowpineapple on Nov 9, 2011 10:49 AM EST reply actions  

I don’t think anyone ignored it. I Think the ones who didn’t mention it just assumed it was obvious. Check out the 24 man rosters.

Writer at Over The Monster. Follow me on Twitter! It'll be super awesome fun! @mattymatty2000

by Matthew Kory on Nov 9, 2011 12:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Not just luck

When a 70-year-old pitcher (approximation) has two completely abysmal seasons in a row, it tells you something, regardless of whether he throws a knuckleball.

This idea that knuckleballers just “lob the ball up there” and then fate decides if they are good pitchers or not just isn’t accurate. If that were the case, there’d be a LOT more major leaguers throwing knuckleballs, putting up league-average results, and getting paid for it. Throwing a knuckleball takes physical skill, and physical skills erode with age.

by Jake_W on Nov 9, 2011 12:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I know the results weren't something to get excited about

but his FIP didn’t change all that much over the last few years, starting in 2004, here are Wake’s FIP numbers:

2004 5.08
2005 4.75
2006 4.93
2007 4.67
2008 4.84
2009 4.58
2010 4.52
2011 4.99

This sorta supports yellowpineapple’s idea that Wake’s basic pitching hasn’t changed much. You may legitimately counter that maybe Wake was never good enough to be that 5th/6th starter guy for ALL these last 7 years, but the fact is we for the most part were not complaining to have him in that role.

Wake’s BABIP wasn’t really changed this year – in fact it was right at his career average of .274. His LOB% was down pretty far though – 59% compared to a career LOB% of 69.5%. So he was unlucky with that and a little bit with slightly more fly balls finding their way over the fences (his HR/FB ratio bumped up slightly from career avg 9.4% to 10.5%).

Other than that, most of his stats (WHIP, BB%, K/9, BB/9, etc., etc., all are very close to what he’s been posting for most of the last decade. Even his plate discipline (SwStr%, Contact%, etc.) numbers don’t really look changed much at all. Some slightly better, some slightly worse. His average FB velocity is virtually unchanged.

So I"m not really sure its clear he’s in decline yet.

I’m not saying we should definitely sign him. But for the right price, he probably still has value as a 6th starter.

Remember, the problem last year wasn’t really Wakefield. It was the fact that we had to USE Wakefield so much because of other pitchers being injured.

And in the epic September collapse, Wakefield was in many ways our most reliable starter – he tied with Bedard for having the lowest ERA of any of our starters and was just behind Lester for most innings pitched.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Nov 9, 2011 9:13 PM EST up reply actions  

"Lowest ERA"

That lowest ERA of Sept. was 5.25 — close to the same shitty number he had all year.

I genuinely appreciate the look you just gave into his numbers, but all you’ve really done is shown how terrible he is. He pitches poorly and he doesn’t pitch deep into games. He’s finished.

by Jake_W on Nov 9, 2011 11:19 PM EST up reply actions  

As I said in my second paragraph
You may legitimately counter that maybe Wake was never good enough to be that 5th/6th starter guy for ALL these last 7 years, but the fact is we for the most part were not complaining to have him in that role.

So you are right on cue.

Shitty is relative. I never said he was ‘good’. Before you blast Wake for his 5.25 ERA in September, don’t you have to first blast all the guys who were far, far worse?

The points are simple: 1) Wake’s performance hasn’t really changed for several years now and doesn’t really look like he’s declining yet. 2) His performance was (foolishly, perhaps?) considered good enough to warrant a particular deep starter role through all that.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Nov 10, 2011 1:18 PM EST up reply actions  

whatever, regardless

The fact is that he doesn’t deserve a spot in the 5 man rotation because, if this team can’t field 5 starters better than Wake at least to begin the year, we may as well just pack it in and call it a season. Before spring training has started. If he isn’t in the rotation, he can only be in the bullpen, where he’s utterly useless. He takes too long to warm up and isn’t good as a reliever. Plenty of people thought that he didn’t deserve the roster spot he had last year,but it was less of a surprise he was kept on, as he was under contract. Just because he ate up that roster spot in 2010 doesn’t mean he needs to in 2011.

by wolf9309 on Nov 10, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not advocating signing him

but I’m sensing a lot of ire aimed at Wake that seems misdirected.

A lot depends on what the alternatives are.

If Wake ends up on the roster to provide 6th-8th starter depth (and we KNOW we typically need around 9 starters to get through the damn season) that would not be a disaster begging for us to ‘call it a season’. The disaster would be the injuries ahead of that spot that force you to give your 6th-8th starters way too many starts.

I think it is way too early to predict whether there will be a spot on the roster for Wake or not.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Nov 10, 2011 8:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm perfectly happy to offer him a minor league deal

and use him as depth. But he won’t take that, he doesn’t belong in the bullpen, and he doesn’t belong in the starting rotation

by wolf9309 on Nov 11, 2011 9:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Voted for Ben's, with Marc's a close 2nd, and Matt K's 3rd, but none perfect.

First – no Tek, no Wake. And there’s no reason to think Tek can be an effective coach or is ready to retire. I had to, therefore, dismiss any plans that included Tek in any form.

I could be convinced to go either way with Papi and Paps as it totally depends on the alternative plans.

I like Matt S’s idea of Beltran more than Ben’s idea of Sizemore.
I like lone1c’s idea of Buehrle or Matt K’s idea of Darvish in addition to resigning Bedard. I don’t mind Nolasco as a #5/6, but you definitely need another better SP given the others’ past health problems (esp. Bedard).

by dsharp on Nov 9, 2011 10:51 AM EST reply actions  

I voted for Matt Sullivan, which gives him the taint of Yankees fan support. What this means, I do not know!

Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc

Writer/Editor for Pinstripe Alley, Blueshirt Banter

"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."

"Every day is a great day for hockey."

by Brandon C. on Nov 9, 2011 10:57 AM EST reply actions  

Kiss of death

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 9, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

It means Matt Sullivan better stock up on the Calamine lotion

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Nov 9, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions  

It was between Matt Sullivan and lone1c for me & I chose...

lone1c. I just can’t get behind the Beltran idea.

(I don’t get the Phil Collins reference.)

Hi Drugs! Hi Brandon! This offseason totally sux, this one more than the past.

"Play Hard Always"

by MassGal on Nov 9, 2011 6:21 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah....Hi, MassGal....

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Nov 10, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions   1 recs

LOVE IT!

Hi Bloggy ( sorry!!)

This off season is ridiculous. It seems really, really long. This is only November, I am not sure I can make it through.

"Play Hard Always"

by MassGal on Nov 10, 2011 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Hi MassGal! Yes it does, but it should get more interesting!

Follow me on twitter @nyybrandonc

Writer/Editor for Pinstripe Alley, Blueshirt Banter

"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."

"Every day is a great day for hockey."

by Brandon C. on Nov 12, 2011 11:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm holding my vote until we have a poll with the fan posts up

I would feel like an ass voting for myself, but I really didn’t like these options. I’d probably vote BZ.

I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.

by TheLoneDavid on Nov 9, 2011 11:16 AM EST reply actions  

There are parts of all Plans that I like, so it's hard to choose.

And because it’s the offseason, everything is very fluid and hard to nail down (for example: Ryan Madson’s deal). I like Darvish, I’m okay with Beltran on a two-year deal, I’m okay bringing back Paps and Ortiz, I’m iffy on Buehrle, etc.

In the end I went with Matt Sullivan’s plan, but wish I could incorporate other people’s ideas into it to make it the absolute best.

by South Coast Ghost on Nov 9, 2011 12:04 PM EST reply actions  

Seeing as my plan would be

Sign Darvish, release Tek, trade Youk, and sign Bedard/Oswalt….

I can’t really say any of these plans are too close to my own.

I agree the most with Matt Kory however.

Don’t ask me on Ortiz since I’m not sure I want him back right now. He’s still good, but he’s gotta start declining soon. Do I want a declining Ortiz on my team?

The Red Sox suck, and I am the dirt that was sucked in, I am a dirty.

I'm narcissistic, nihilistic, and arrogant. That's me in a nutshell.

by outofleftfield on Nov 9, 2011 1:04 PM EST reply actions  

Voted for Marc

but I liked the Sizemore idea.

Let's trade Reddick for Heyward!
Herreshoff.info -- The most awesome website since the invention of the internet.

by QW on Nov 9, 2011 1:56 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah

but you get like that.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Nov 9, 2011 2:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I choose TheLoneDavid I think

Whose plan I more or less agreed with, save for a name here and there.

by The Name is Dalton on Nov 9, 2011 3:01 PM EST reply actions  

Woo!

I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.

by TheLoneDavid on Nov 9, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions  

I mean...

I think the only thing I was really iffy on was losing Youk’s RH bat in between Gonzo and Ortiz. But, with our offense I think having Headley 2nd and Pedey 4th would end up working out fine. And I’ve said many, many times that getting a 4th/5th starter are the critical priorities in my mind.

Out of the free agents out there only really Garland jumps out as a decent, innings eating guy who will be a cheaper, short term deal but he isn’t really better than a 5th rotation spot guy. Bedard scares me, but he is obviously the better pitcher so I see why you go with him. Out of trade targets I’ve heard that may or may not be available (Jurrjens, McCarthy, Marcum, Gio, Cahill, etc) Marcum and Gio are the most enticing and Gio will likely command a higher prospect package.

by The Name is Dalton on Nov 11, 2011 8:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Something along these lines:

1. Resign Bedard and Ortiz, let Paps go. Expensive relievers are very very rarely a good ROI.

2. Sign Edwin Jackson for, say, 4 years and $52MM.

3. Sign some scrap-heap ‘pen arms if you don’t have enough confidence in what we have under club control at the moment. Offer arb to Wheeler and be happy either way.

3. ???

4. Profit.

I love love love Carlos Beltran, but the previous moves are necessary and I’m not sure they leave enough of a budget for him . If there is, though, go for it, then see what you can get for Reddick and/or Kalish.

by abbreviatedman on Nov 9, 2011 7:33 PM EST reply actions  

After reading OTM’s idea’s on what to do,I would like to remind people that Dave Montgomery was behind the Papelbon signing. Amaro Jr wanted Madson. As for A.Jones, he has been out there two years running and the Sox wouldn’t sign him. Apparently,he is good enough for the Yankees, but not the Sox.If they plan on sticking with Reddick, they must sign Jones or Reed Johnson for a platoon. If they get Beltran/Cuddyer, I would still sign Jones/Johnson to platoon with Crawford. As bad as Carl was, he was even worse against LH pitchers. It would take a manager with a nut sack(Valentine) to do this,but if mgmt is willing to bring him in, he should use Jones/Johnson in that manner.. Getting back to Valentine, if they sign Darvish, V would be the guy to manage the team.Then,bring back Saito and try to sign Kuroda as a starter. Bobby’s experience from managing in Japan would be very helpful with these players,including Dice, if he ever comes back.. Personally, I wouldn’t touch Darvish after the Dice K dissaster. I would try to sign the best Japanese relief pitcher available, if their is one. I am all for signing Beltran or Cuddyer,but I don’t see them doing it. Agree 100 percent with bringing back Bedard,and hoping for the best. Agree with those who said Wake and Tek should go. I would let Ortiz go. Like Theo and Tito,it is time for him to go. Youk would be the DH and would consider handing the job to Middlebrooks,or use Lowrie and Aviles there.

by Robert57 on Nov 22, 2011 9:49 AM EST reply actions  

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