Okay, my turn: LesterJohn as armchair GM

by LesterJohn on Nov 3, 2011 7:14 PM EDT

After seeing a lot of good work from my fellow posters here at OTM, I thought I would throw in my two cents:

Let's start with the Manager:

There are a lot of good options out there, but I've limited my list to three: Pete Mackanin, Ryne Sandburg, and Ron Gardenhire. Mackanin is a very baseball-smart man. We would have seen the last of the bonehead bunts, pinch running, and pitching changes (or lack thereof) which we have gotten used to with Tito. Sandburg has a high profile name, was a former player, and has a lot of energy and charisma. Many argue (myself included) that the talent is there, and that the Sox need a hardass to go in there and take no BS from anyone... enter Ryne Sandburg. However, I think the best option is Ron Gardenhire. We would need to pry him away from Minnesota, which would be difficult but possible. He managed a Twins club that (outside of 2011) overachieved for the better half of a decade, and while I haven't intently watched Twin games to see if he makes good decisions, he has always struck me as a guy that seems to know what he is doing. And while he looks a bit like Santa Claus, he has been known to be rather intense. If we get any of these three, I'm happy, but if the Twins let Gardenhire walk, I hire him in a heartbeat.

Other Coaches/Staff:

Make the push for Mike Maddux. This goes along with my idea that the talent is there, and the discipline isn't. I don't want Maddux as a manager, but he is a damn good pitching coach. Next, fire Bogar and replace him with anything: a former player, a young coach, a jockstrap, you name it. The medical staff needs to go. I'd definitely keep Magadan and Hale, and past that, I don't think there is anyone that needs to go.

Bullpen:

We can start by offering Arb to Wheeler and Pap, and tendering contracts to Morales, Miller, Hill, Aceves, and Bard. Notice I left off Albers. At 1.3 mil, there is no reason to bring this guy back unless it is a minor league deal. The same can be argued for Morales and Miller (1 mil and 1.6 mil respectively, but considering that both can miss bats and both are young with powerful stuff. I think that both know that this is their last real shot, and will therefore be motivated. Worst comes to worst, both get DFAd and we eat 2.6 mil. Now, getting into the bigger stuff, if Wheeler and/or Pap take arb, so be it. I don't anticipate either will, so the replacement will be Ryan Madson. Even as a Boras client, he will be cheaper and just as effective as Pap, so I give him 3 yrs and 25 to 30 mil.

Starting pitching:

Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz take up 3 of the 5 spots. I make the effort to sign Roy Oswalt. I'd go as high as 2yrs with 8-10 mil a year. If we don't get him (and I don't think we do), we look elsewhere. I start by giving Erik Bedard 1 year, 6 mil with a vesting option for 6 mil if he starts 25 games. Then I trade for Jair Jurrjens. He is 26 and is under team control for 2012 and 13. To get him, I trade Ryan Kalish, Oscar Tejeda, Jed Lowrie, and Alex Hassan. This is a steep price, but to get a great starting pitcher who is only 25, I do it in a heartbeat. So that gives us our 5, but I sign Kyle Davies and Scott Kazmir as AAA depth/reclamation projects. I also groom Weiland to be a reliever and Tazawa + Doubront to be starters. At least one gets to the bigs pretty quick with the fragile Erik Bedard as our #5 starter.

Outfield:

Sign Grady Sizemore for 2 years, 17 million. An injury prone outfielder coming to Boston, what a great fit! But in all seriousness, Grady gives us a lot when healthy, especially considering that I traded Josh Reddick. This gives us a starting RF and potentially a CF for 2013 if Ellsbury walks. Since both he and Ells are young and talented, it gives the Sox some options. This is a low risk move, considering that Kalish is ready to go if Grady goes down.

Infield:

Tender contracts to both Lowrie and Aviles, as well as Salty. Keep Kalish, Lavarnway, and Aviles on the bench and bring up Che-Hsuan Lin to play 5th OF. We need a 5th OF considering that Crawford, Grady, and Ells tend to get knicked up here and there.

2012 projected roster:

Starters: 1: Lester 2: Beckett 3: Buchholz 4: Jurrjens 5: Bedard. Minor league depth: Doubront, Tazawa, Davies, Kazmir, and Wilson

Infield: Salty, Gonzalez, Pedroia, Scutaro, Youkilis

Outfield: Crawford, Ellsbury, Sizemore

Bench: Lavarnway, Aviles, Che-Hsuan Lin, Josh Reddick

Bullpen: Closer: Ryan Madson Setup: Daniel Bard Long man: Alfredo Aceves Middle Relief: Morales, Miller, and Jenks.

So there you have it, LesterJohn's 2012 Red Sox. A world series winning team, if you ask me.

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Comments

Big $$$$, playoff team.

I’m watching MLB presenting MLB vs Taiwan National Team. Our own Che Lin was in CF for Taiwan, and continues to play CF like Iglesias plays SS. But I write this because Josh Reddick is in RF for MLB. He threw out TWO runners in the 5th, at 3rd and Home. Strikes. He also got am2b and BB and R. I’d rather have Reddick in RF to start the season for his glove and arm, and to see how well he adjusts to MLB pitching. Cost? About $450K. IMO he is being very undervalued.

by GerryT on Nov 3, 2011 11:19 PM EDT reply actions

I'd rather Reddick in right than Sizemore

but we need pitching and if we can get it for Reddick, we do it as far as I’m concerned. According to many, Kalish projects to be better, so with a year of play in Pawtucket, he could be ready for 2013.

Further to Kalish, LesterJohn has him on the bench. I think this is a horrible idea as I really think he’ll need regular at-bats coming off an injury. I’d prefer to take a run at DeJesus for this year (should we move Reddick) with the thought that Kalish could be ready next year.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Nov 4, 2011 7:07 AM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

Kalish shouldn’t (and in all likelihood won’t) be sitting on the bench as our fourth outfielder. He will most likely start in Pawtucket, and then how he does there will partially determine when he comes up.

by The Name is Dalton on Nov 4, 2011 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions

PS

I like the J.‘Jurgens,’Davies,’kazmir ideas but see Weiland as a lights out late inning RP going forward.

by GerryT on Nov 3, 2011 11:23 PM EDT reply actions

The Braves are

willing to deal Jurrjens and Prad. I could see this making sense.

by aubatron2011 on Nov 4, 2011 8:26 AM EDT reply actions

Hmm, maybe a sell high on Ellsbury?

bring in Prado to 3B and move Youk to replace CF/get more pitching. Ballsy….

by BobZupcic on Nov 4, 2011 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

I feel like that would be all around a worse team

Prado is OK, but not very good.

Jurrjens would not be good coming here. Not just because of the injury issues (though if we’re trading for a pitcher, we don’t really want one with injury issues, please). His K rate, swinging strike rate, and fastball velocity were all down significantly last year. He would be coming from the national league to the AL East.

In addition, his value right now is artificially boosted by the tiny ERA that he posted in 2011. The reason he got that managed to keep his BABIP down to .269 despite a ridiculous 21.4% Line Drive rate (and quick dirty math tells us that typical for that line drive rate would be a BABIP of about .334), and had an absolutely silly 81% LOB%. Just for reference with that number, in 2008, when we all talk about how absurdly lucky Daisuke was with stranding runners on base, his strand rate was 80.6%, which is lower than Jurrjens last year. The Braves are wise to be willing to trade him despite the fact that they already cleared Lowe out of the rotation.

by wolf9309 on Nov 4, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I'd not really endore that move - but still - ballsy

by BobZupcic on Nov 4, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

This

We would have seen the last of the bonehead bunts, pinch running, and pitching changes (or lack thereof) which we have gotten used to with Tito.

I doubt this. Come mid-season we would still be criticizing these aspects of whoever our new manager is. It’s the way alot of the fans operate. It wouldn’t change with Mackanin.

by The Name is Dalton on Nov 4, 2011 8:46 AM EDT reply actions

Regarding Tito's "bone-head bunts"

The Sox bunt less than any team in baseball.

Also, in my opinion, Francona is a MUCH better manager than Gardenhire.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 4, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Gardenhire is in my mind

Francona without all the good bits and with more bad bits.

The fact is, I don’t think there are any fans in baseball that really, truly like their manager. They all make decisions that seem baffling at times. Tito barely ever bunted, and good on him for that. I do wish that some of the players would actually learn to bunt so that the maybe 2 times a year it’s a good idea, they don’t just pop them up to the pitcher, but I can understand why they don’t spend time with that.
Pitching changes were probably pretty clearly Francona’s biggest weakness- and we’d like to think that whoever comes next will make decisions that appear better to us- but we can probably rest pretty well assured that no matter who it is, 10 or so times next season, we’ll all be shouting “WHAT THE HELL, <name of manager>.”

by wolf9309 on Nov 4, 2011 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions

I always thought Ortiz

should bunt to third against the shift once every few weeks. He gets so many outs because of the shift a bunt to third to keep people honest would go a long way. I don’t want to take the bat out of his hands but why not if we already have a lead.

by ThoughtsAndSox on Nov 4, 2011 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions

did OK with the shift last year

he just needs to keep up the going the other way thing and remember that he is NOT a dead pull hitter.

I do remember seeing Gonzalez do that to get on base this past year and that was pretty hilarious.

by wolf9309 on Nov 4, 2011 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah

People seem to think that these were uniquely Francona traits, however we will soon find that every manager in baseball is going to make decisions we don’t agree with as probably the same rate Francona did.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Nov 4, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Reminds me of how fans react to the Offensive Coordinator position in football

If the team is scoring the players are doing spectacular.
If the team isn’t scoring, it’s because of crappy playcalling.

by The Name is Dalton on Nov 4, 2011 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Sorry LesterJohn, but you're fired

We appreciate your hard work for this organization, but I think we’re going to move in a different direction in our GM search.

You just gave Grady Sizemore, who doesn’t have any knees, 17 million and a guaranteed second year. Also, I just got a really mean phone call from Atlanta. They said you offered them Reddick, Lowrie, and Hassan for Jurrjens? They said for those players they would consider sending us Jurrjen’s autographed baseball card, but not the player himself. They couldn’t stop laughing.

You gave Madson 30 million. You’re wasting our time with Kazmir, whose fastball velocity is down to 30 mph. You’ve also wasted who knows how much money trying to pull Gardenhire from the Twins.

Good luck on the job market!

by Jake_W on Nov 4, 2011 10:41 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs

That's ok, he should be able to find a job with O's.

I think they’ll take anyone at this point.

by Sologub on Nov 4, 2011 4:04 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe you're right, but I doubt it.

Sizemore is a bargain at 2yr/17 mil, when you consider that Carlos Beltran who is nearly as injury prone, yet much more inconsistent, will get 3/30.

Regarding the Jair package, that may not be quite enough, but it’s close. Throw in a young guy who has a lot of upside, like Oscar Tejeda, and I say it gets done.

Madson has been just as effective as Papelbon, but you wouldn’t bat an eye at giving him 30 or even 40 million.

Kazmir, who cares? It would be a minor league deal. Did you oppose Kevin Millwood, whose velocity was in the low 80s? Kazmir is at least relatively young and would still have a chance to do something, but he wouldn’t be relied on.

What’s wrong with Gardenhire? As I said, he has been effective as Twins manager. He combines the 2 key skills of being a manager: baseball decisions and clubhouse decisions.

So, go ahead and think what you will, but this was also similar to what was said by Jared Stegall and Ben Buchanan. So what is your plan, that would be so superior to mine? I guess we’ll see.

Theo-trade John Lackey for a used condom and a punch in the nose. Remember, it's all about value.

by LesterJohn on Nov 5, 2011 11:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, kind disappointed that got rec'd

Was pretty dickish.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Nov 6, 2011 7:37 AM EST up reply actions

Considering I'm not actually in a position to hire or fire people from the team

I thought it was clear the post was in a spirit of good fun. Sorry if it wasn’t.

by Jake_W on Nov 6, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions

Didn't read it that way, personally

but glad you clarified.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Nov 6, 2011 7:12 PM EST up reply actions

I posted this below already, but first: while I sincerely disagree with just about all of the moves you suggested making, my post was supposed to be fun, not mean. I assume the people who rec’d it took as it was meant to be, as a joke, and not as some serious attack on you. Anyway, as for the discussion itself:

Sizemore hasn’t been an above average hitter since 2008, and he’s had multiple knee surgeries. I understand the appeal of taking a risk on him, but I really think giving him a guaranteed two year deal is crazy.

We’ll have to agree to disagree on your package for Jair. Lowrie has no value right now; he can’t field and can’t stay healthy. Hassan is, what, our 25th ranked prospect? You’re basically asking them to trade you Jair for Reddick straight up.

“Madson has been just as effective as Papelbon” — I’m sorry, but that’s just not true. The number don’t reflect it. Papelbon has been better, and better for longer.

As for Kazmir…yeah, who cares. We agree on that. :)

There’s nothing wrong with Gardenhire, in my opinion (some people here seem to hate him, but I don’t). I wasn’t very clear in that part of my post—my problem isn’t with Gardenhire himself, it’s with the fact that hiring him would almost definitely mean offering a lot of money to pull him away from the Twins. He’s not worth a lot of money. (I don’t think ANY manager is worth a lot of money.)

by Jake_W on Nov 6, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions

Sizemore is a bargain at 2yr/17 mil, when you consider that Carlos Beltran who is nearly as injury prone, yet much more inconsistent, will get 3/30.

Really? Grady Sizemore’s last good season was 2008. From 2005 to 2008, his prime, Sizemore was a .281 AVG/.372 OBP/.496 SLG/.868 OPS/.376 wOBA/131 wRC+ hitter. He has played 210 games over the past three years.

Beltran has played 287 games over the past three years. He was healthy enough to get 598 PA this year and hit .300 AVG/.385 OBP/.525 SLG/,910 OPS/.389 wOBA/153 wRC+. Beltran hit .283 AVG/.371 OBP/.514 SLG/.885 OPS/.382 wOBA/132 wRC+ from 2003 to 2009. Beltran has been better for longer, healthier more recently, and, therefore, more consistent.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 6, 2011 7:55 PM EST up reply actions

Plus

He fits our needs a lot more so than Sizemore. A RH bat that hits for power.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Nov 7, 2011 7:01 AM EST up reply actions

From what I've read from Twins fans, most would giggle uncontrollably at the idea of somebody actually wanting Gardenhire as manager

-Oswalt is not worth multiple years due to his back issues (degenerative discs) which have already scared off the Phillies and Yankees. Philadelphia could have retained him for only $, and the Yankees are starved for pitching. That should tell you all you need to know.
-Jurrjens is incredibly overrated. He is probably a true talent 4-4.25 FIP pitcher, with a career 6.1 K/9 in the NL East and a whiff rate barely better than John Lackey. Put him in this division and he is close to replacement level.
-Davies and Kazmir don’t really qualify as depth, since that assumes that the guy could come up and help you in a pinch. Those two are just batting practice.
-Ellsbury is a free agent after 2013, not 2012.
-Sizemore could probably battle Francona for most knee surgeries endured over the past few years. It’s extremely unlikely he will ever be anything close to what he was, and frankly what he was, wasn’t as incredible as people remember.

"We’re the Sox. Not Apple Sox. We ain’t no Barbeque Sox. We’re the Red Sox.’’ - David Ortiz

by L33to II on Nov 4, 2011 11:16 AM EDT reply actions

Agree completely

Gardenhire is a pretty mediocre manager. Oswalt and Sizemore are damaged goods. Kazmir is worse than pre-surgery Lackey. Jurrgens probably isn’t worth what the Braves will want for him, especially when you try an NL/AL conversion of his numbers.

There really isn’t a lot out there in terms of available starting pitching. I’m beginning to lean toward Buehrle, a durable innings-eater who wouldn’t cost the Sox a pick (Type-B), and Yu Darvish, who is 25-years old and won’t cost picks, for the two open slots in the rotation. Someone durable like Buehrle makes sense, especially when you remember that Clay Buchholz has never made 30 starts in a season.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 4, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions

Garland may be a cheap 5/6 rotation slot guy

He lost a bit of time this past year due to injury but before that was a workhorse, and he’s coming over from the NL but he will probably be cheap, short-term and hopefully he can keep his GB % effective enough so that he could be an innings eating #5/6 option.

by The Name is Dalton on Nov 4, 2011 12:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd like to see the Sox bring him in

stash him at AAA if necessary

by BobZupcic on Nov 4, 2011 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I prefer Buehrle to Garland

But if the Sox can keep Garland as insurance in the minors, as BZ suggest, I’d be OK with that.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Nov 4, 2011 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah the more recent AL history has to count for something in Mark's advantage.

Plus Buehrle works insanely fast, so from a fan’s (and probably position player) perspective, it would be a nice change from watching Beckett stare at Tek like Tek is using some rare, recently discovered hand signals that you need a decoder ring to decipher.

I imagine Garland will get a rotation spot somewhere, but it would be nice to have him as a #6 starter in waiting.

by The Name is Dalton on Nov 4, 2011 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions