Paps Deal Silly, Gets Even Sillier
by Matthew Kory on Nov 21, 2011 7:00 AM EST
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PrintLast week's signing of Jonathan Papelbon by the Phillies orchestrated by GM Ruben Amaro wasn't met with what you might call cheers from the sabermetric community. Maybe Amaro has a Mr. Smithers type who can soften the blow by telling him, "They're not saying, "Boo!" they're saying, "Booo-est deal ever!""
Not everyone detested the deal, but many did (I count myself among those of the latter group). And for good reason. It set a new standard for relievers, and in the midst of a buyers market, unnecessarily so. As I've pointed out elsewhere, the deal was larger than any deal any reliever has ever signed, including consensus best reliever ever Mariano Rivera. I looked it up in my baseball writer's handbook and it told me an aging team with increasing cracks in their once league-leading offensive armor spending $60 million on a relief pitcher is, officially, a misallocation of funds, as silly as sacrifice bunting down by six runs, and as pointless as using Jeff Mathis as a pinch hitter.*
*Or, for those of you who prefer your similes to not be baseball oriented, I offer you this: "as silly as a naked clown, and as pointless also as a naked clown."
But we knew all that. This, from MLB Trade Rumors, we didn't know:
Under the new CBA, teams that sign the remaining Type A relievers will not be forced to surrender draft picks, a source tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
As ill-advised and ridiculous as the Papelbon deal was, at least the Phillies won't end up losing their first round draft pick over it. Ruben Amaro is saved from himself. Right? Flash forward to two sentences later:
The measure is not retroactive, however, meaning that the Phillies will still surrender their first-round pick for signing Jonathan Papelbon.
So, question, how do you write, "BWA HA HA HA!" but in an erudite and literary way?
Unlike every other team that signs a Type A relief pitcher this off season and, indeed, for the rest of time, the Phillies will lose their first round draft pick because of it. Also, incidentally, unlike every other team that has a Type A reliever signed away from them this off season and, indeed, for the rest of time, the Red Sox will receive a first round draft pick to compensate them for their loss.
The Phillies have the oldest team in major league baseball (according to ESPN) with an average age of essentially 30 years old. If any team should have been careful to hold on to their first round draft pick it was the Phillies.
Had Amaro held back on signing Papelbon for just one week, the Phillies would have their first rounder right now. He wouldn't have had to alter anything, either. Amaro could have signed Paps to the exact same ridiculous contract with the exact same ridiculous provisions and the exact same insane vesting option and held the exact same ridiculous press conference where Papelbon could have said the exact same trite garbage and the Phillies could havel kept their first round draft pick.
But Amaro didn't wait, and so pick number 31 will go to Boston. So when the Yankees make their choice at number 30 to officially put the Red Sox are on the clock, don't forget to pause and thank Ruben Amaro, Jr., the man whose lack of patience, fiscal sanity, and forethought made it all possible.
Thanks Ruben.
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Get Madson now!
I know it’s irrational, but this news somehow makes me want the Sox to go after Ryan Madson just to “rub it in” a little.
Another way to look at it
I agree the deal was bad for the Phillies, but just to play devil’s advocate…
The fact that they have the oldest team in the game could be used to argue that spending whatever it takes to draw good players — like Paps — to them RIGHT NOW makes sense. Through their reckless spending and trading and even extending (players extensions are rarely reckless, but the Phillies found a way!), they’ve already completely mortgaged their future. In just a few years, this is going to be a very bad team regardless of what they paid for Paps. So, spending whatever it takes to win next season or the one after kind of makes sense. Their window is closing rapidly and may not re-open again for a while.
Obviously, it’s kind of a “two wrongs make a right” argument, and it’s also completely separate from your main point, Matt, about waiting for the new CBA.
It's a reasonable point
But one could argue, I think, that the Phillies’ limited window of opportunity makes it even more important for them to squeeze every drop of value from every dollar they spend in the short term. If they blow millions on overpays like Papelbon, they won’t be able to afford the additional talent they need to actually win a World Series.
Especially since replacing Madson with Papelbon is, at best, a wash quality wise
And ridiculously more expensive
How is it at best a wash?
Papelbon is the better pitcher. He’s not worth what they’re paying him, but he is better than Madson, not a wash “at best.”
fWAR ranks:
2011: Papelbon (2nd), Madson (15th)
2010-11: Papelbon (2nd), Madson (18th)
2009-11: Papelbon (3rd), Madson (15th)
2008-11: Papelbon (2nd), Madson (10th)
by UltimateCranston on Nov 21, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions
Papelbon is better than Madson, certainly
But that still only comes out to a total of about 2 WAR over the course of the last three seasons (2009-2011 fWAR: Papelbon 6.2; Madson 4.3).
No Silly Deal
It was not a silly deal. Philly get’s it that DP’s are not the holy grail. Pap is the best, and they had the need. Montgomery felt that one year phenom, Ryan Madson, might not be worth it. No DP, or three, are worth what Pap brings to a contending team. Philly’s window closes a bit more every year. Coles may be gone after ‘12. Halliday and Lee ain’t getting any younger. Putting a winning team on the field has made Philly a hotbed of interest, and a cash cow. Philly knows that one trophy,over an expansion team, is not enough of a legacy for this group to leave behind.. Example: The 88-90 A’s were one of the best teams ever assembled, but their legacy is nearly invisible. Why? They won only one Earth Quake tainted trophy against a vastly inferior team. It doesn’t even count, if I am an A’s fan in those days. Another example: The 2007 Red Sox. For a team with the up and coming talent and resources they had, it’s almost unfathomable that they haven’t won again. They should have won again by accident. Philly wants to leave a better legacy then that. Montgomery and Amaro realize that relief pitchers are vastly underated. As for using so called “internal solutions”for the pen,pitchers like Motte and Salas coming up and making a difference,are rare. The 2012 Sox have the same window closing. Instead of aquiring the help they need,Beltran//Cuddyer/Bettencourt/Oliver/Wilson,or even they are to busy performing slapstick routines at press conferences, pinching pennies,worrying about draft picks, and fretting about luxury tax. Congratulation to Philly for understanding that to make money, you need to spend money.Hopefully, for them, they will resign Madson as the setup guy,and pick up another bat, such as Cuddyer or Beltran.
Too far
I made the same point about the Phillies’ rapidly closing window in the post above yours, but you’re going too far when you try to apply that same concept to the Red Sox. We are in a very different situation than the Phillies. We have plenty of good young players both on the team and coming up through the minors. We have more money, and as much we hate the Lackey deal, we don’t have anything like the albatross that is the Ryan Howard deal hanging around our necks. We were a good team last year, we’ll be a good team next year, and there’s no reason to think we won’t be a good team three years from now. In contrast, the Phillies might be a borderline disaster in three years.
I think you’ll feel silly in a few years when the Sox are still in strong competition for the World Series every year and the Phillies are trying to rebuild with nothing. “Worrying about draft picks,” as you call it, is exactly what we want our Front Office to be doing, seeing as, you know, draft picks are hugely, hugely important.
Look at the players we have gotten through the draft.
Ells, Bard, Buchholz, Lester, Pedey, Lowrie, Lavarnway, Youk and Paps were the most prominent players the Sox have drafted. Some of those, Ells, Bard and Buchholz in particular, have come through other teams signing are Type A FAs. In baseball, draft picks may not have the instant impact that football or basketball draft picks have but they allow teams to do two important things: first, if they need to acquire a proven player, rather having to subtract a player from the Major league roster for a trade, they have players who they can use to get a big leaguer and not really hurt the organization except for maybe a little depth. Secondly, if the player is special, his time to the Majors will be short, so he could have an impact with the club a lot sooner than most draft picks.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 21, 2011 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
For comparison purposes (2010 Season Age in parens)
Phillies offensive “core”: Utley (32), Howard (31), Victorino (30). Help near ready: Brown (23)
Red Sox “core”: Pedroia (27), Gonzalez (29), Crawford (29), Youkilis (32). Help near ready: Kalish (24), Lavarnway (24), Reddick (24)
First,Kalish and Lavernway havent’ produced a thing yet, and Reddick,from what he has shown so far,is nothing special My point was clearly spelled out.
Reddick is nothing special, but he also costs us nothing
It is far more useful to a team to have solid but unexceptional players for the minimum salary than an all-time great reliever for the $50-$60MM the Phillies will be paying Papelbon.
Aye,there's the rub
You are willing to settle for a player who will probably not get you to the top,because he is inexpensive? Look, I get that you can’t have an allstar at every position, and you need to have a couple of minumum wage positon players,but if you’re going to build your team around DP’s,you can’t let them walknaway if they turn out to be special. The best example is the 90’s Yankees. They produced two certain HOFers and three more that come close. The difference is, they kept them.
No.
It’s not about ‘settling for a player … because he is inexpensive’.
It’s about marginal analysis.
You want to put your money towards players that return the biggest marginal bang over the alternative at their position.
Suppose you have two ‘inexpensive, good but unexciting’ players on your roster. Now suppose you have $15M in your budget to spend. You could spend it on a superstar to replace player A, and get an additional 1-2 WAR over player A. Or you could spend it on a different superstar to replace player B and get an additional 2-4 WAR over player B.
You are not ‘settling’ on player A, here. You are maximizing your marginal value by instead investing in a different position where you are getting bigger net return.
Your strategy of maximizing every position, disregarding the cost, makes sense in a go-for-it year, but ONLY if you DONTt have these opportunity cost decisions to make. I.E. – if there WERE no available upgrade to ‘B’, then sure, just spend the money on the upgrade to A. But only in a ‘go-for-it-all’ year.
This is why it made no sense for the RS to spend big on Paps. The net marginal drop in losing Paps and replacing his role with a cheaper alternative is real, but small compared to the potential marginal GAIN we can get by spending the money elsewhere.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
by mmmmm on Nov 21, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
Great logic here!
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
thank you so much
I hate it when people say money doesn’t matter. It can only get spent in one place.
well said
rec’d
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
Sure you can let them walk, if they're going to require significantly more money than they're worth
The Yankees are a bad comparison because they have more money than anyone else, and thus will by definition have their pick of whoever they want. And even then there are limits. If Derek Jeter had, in 2001, demanded a 30 year contract worth $8 billion to get him to stay, do you really think the Yankees would’ve said, “OKIE DOKE!!!” just because he’s a “certain HOFer” or “turned out to be special”?
Okay... let's see if I can guess them all...
Jeter and Mo are the certain HOFs… so you’ve got Posada, Petitte and… Bernie Williams for the other three? Assuming all five are home grown players, that’s the list, right?
Let me counter with Boston’s young, homegrown players (since 2004) that we’re keeping, and see if I can come up with 5 that might produce two HOF players:
Pedroia, Youk, Lester, Ellsbury and I’ll round out with Buchholz.
Now, would Jonathan Papelbon look good to include in that 5? Sure… but you’re also looking back on the 1990s Yankees with the benefit of hindsight. I doubt many thought Mo would pitch for 17 seasons back in 1995.
However, looking at the roster now… in addition to the 5 above, which could reasonably produce two HOF players (in my mind: Pedroia and Lester), there is another batch for the Sox to consider in 16 years looking back that could be included in our actual 5 that have already played for the Sox… Bard, Kalish, Lavarnway, Doubront, Weiland, Iglesias, and maybe even the oft-maligned Reddick. (After all, read what folks around here had to say about Ellsbury during and after the 2010 season…)
Papelbon might have been a good addition to that list, but not for what the Phillies are paying him. Maybe we’ll see Paps pitch for 17 seasons like Mo, but somehow I doubt it. Of course, Mariano started out his career as a set up guy, and became arguably the best closer of all time. So, maybe that’s the path for Daniel Bard to follow.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
That’s all well and good, but the yankees won 5 WS with that group,and with all due repect to the Red Sox group,they have only won one. And I am not saying it’s their fault. It’s managements fault. You don’t let Jonathen Papelbon walk away. Period. They used a comment Pap made back in ‘07 as an excuse to not try and extend him earlier,or letting him go now, because of money he rightfully deserves..John Henry is a billionare,so students of the game shouldn’t get all worked up about salary. They have the money. The need to allocate properly.
He wasn't going to come back period.
Like most athletes he only cared about money. Philly offered him a ridiculous contract and his agents didn’t even give the Sox an opportunity to match. He was going to go to the first team that offered him a huge deal.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 21, 2011 6:25 PM EST up reply actions
Papelbon had absolutely no interest in an extension
It wasn’t “one comment” from back in 2007. Paps has been on the record numerous times as stating, flat out, that he intended to test the free agent market at his earliest opportunity.
Also, “need to allocate properly” is incompatible with “signing a reliever (ANY reliever) for 5/50.”
Who is Coles?
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by Matthew Kory on Nov 21, 2011 1:54 PM EST up reply actions
He probably left Madson out
because he isn’t on the team. And therefore not part of the core.
by The Name is Dalton on Nov 21, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
And he also said "offensive" core.
Not pitching.
by The Name is Dalton on Nov 21, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
Draft picks may not be the holy grail, but neither are relief pitchers
Even great ones, like Paps. Hell, even the best ones ever, like Mo. Paying through the nose for a pitcher that, at best, will give you 75 innings per year is a bad idea.
At the time they signed Howard,he was putting up HOF numbers. Philly probably thought at the time that he was the best player they had developed since Dick Allen. They made a decision to build their team around him. Although he hasn’t been able to maintain those numbers, he shouldn’t be viewed as a mistake. He is still their most dangerous hitter, and a guy young fans can identify as their own. This is rare in todays game, and worth something. How many kids are walking around Philly with a Howard shirt. Plenty, I would guess. Yes, you could say he is an albatross today,but they took steps to insure that their best young player wouldn’t walk. I applaud them for that. Never said DP’s aren’t important,just saying that being so close, you might think less about DP’s,and more about winning this year.Personnally,I would rather have a losing team to having a team that is not quite good enough, every year.It’s frustrating when you know your ownership is ok with just being in the mix. Before, I get off this post, I will state the obvious about Bard, Pedroia, etc. No one said you should forgo draft picks. That was my point about the 07 team. When you have have a team as good as te Sox had put together, in 07, how do you not win again? Theo did well in his drafting, but also enjoyed good fortune in having them all work out.That is unusual. Just look at the percentage of drafted players that never see the show. Now, we see Pap leave, and I ’ll bet that you will see Ellsbury walk next.
When you have a team that won the 2008 World Series, and then add Lee...
… then trade Lee for Halladay, then resign Lee to pair him with Halladay – not to mention Hamels and Oswalt, how do you not win again?
The Red Sox got to Game 7 of the ALCS in 2008, and one could argue, if Boras and Manny hadn’t conspired to make sure Boston management wouldn’t pick up his options at season’s end, should have been able to beat the Rays that year.
The Phillies, on the other hand, went out and assembled the best rotation in the Majors, and haev as many World Series titles since 2008 as the Boston Red Sox.
Just saying.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Trading Lee that year cost them the pennant. They recognized the mistake they made and re-signed him.
and then lost in the ALDS
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.
by TheLoneDavid on Nov 21, 2011 11:31 PM EST up reply actions
Of course the Howard contract can be viewed as a mistake
Don’t be ridiculous. In 2010, Philly signed a 30-year old power hitter (y’know, the kind whose production tends to drop precipitously in the mid-30s, often with little to no prior notice) to a five year, $125 million extension that doesn’t even kick in until 2012. They are paying $25M a year for Howard’s age 33-38 seasons. It was widely considered a mistake at the time of signing, and nothing that’s happened since has done anything to disprove that thesis.
Also, if Ellsbury walks next, it'll likely be because we spent too much on overpaid free agents
…You know, like Papelbon would’ve been had we kept him.
These comments are longer than the article.
Writer at Over The Monster. Follow me on Twitter! It'll be super awesome fun! @mattymatty2000
Not a complaint by the way, just an observation.
Writer at Over The Monster. Follow me on Twitter! It'll be super awesome fun! @mattymatty2000
by Matthew Kory on Nov 21, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, yeah, I was happy to see it. Didn't mean to curtail length at all. Apologies if that was the outcome.
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by Matthew Kory on Nov 21, 2011 1:55 PM EST up reply actions
I really do not believe in picking a player that at best can influence some 200 innings
To be the league MVP. Sure the PA’s work out, but a pitcher’s defense doesn’t mean a whole lot and in the AL, they spend almost no time running the bases.
Joe, the reason we shout "WE ARE" and the reason the answer will always be "PENN STATE"
I haven't really worked through my own thoughts on the subject
But I suppose the counter argument I would make to that is that a pitcher has a lot more influence on the games and innings he plays than a hitter or fielder does.
A pitcher affects the game far more than the position player does
Consider an extremely simplistic scenario related to the “affects more games” argument.
Jacoby Ellsbury hits .350, smashes a HR every 3 games or so, and fields with the range of three Carl Crawfords. He ends the year with massive counting stats, 50+ homers, and an obscene WAR. Unfortunately for him, the rest of his team is only league-average, including the pitching staff. His amazing defense is little help when the other team smashes home runs out of the park or the other 8 fielders are unable to reach balls that become base hits. His valiant at-bats mean little when his team’s pitchers cough up 4-5 runs regularly and his teammates struggle to get on base, leaving him stranded on base or chipping away with solo home runs. And for all his heroic struggle, in any high leverage situation he will just be intentionally walked. The point of all this is that my videogame version of Ellsbury, for all his ability, still can’t affect the game very much. He can’t field all 9 positions. His bat can be taken out of his hands as easily as holding up 4 fingers, or he may just be pitched around. Super Ellsbury plays 150 games, but his presence in each game, at most, moves the odds of his team winning a few ticks upward.
Video-game Justin Verlander decides old school Pedro wasn’t good enough, goes to Japan to learn the legendary gyroball and Hyper Accelerate Octane Fastball, and throws 250 innings with a 0.75 FIP and 12 to 1 strikeout/walk ratio. He pitches into the 7th or 8th inning in nearly all his starts, if not a CG, and does not give up more than 2 runs in a game all year. Super Verlander also is saddled with a league average team, fielders, and bullpen. His offense may suck and several times fail to even score 3 runs for him. But on average, they will be able to manage that easily. His fielders may sometimes miss balls that turn into runs. But on average, they will do their jobs. His bullpen may occasionally implode during the 3-5 outs they are left to collect. But on average, they will do their jobs as well. That is of course assuming they even have to move, because Super Verlander regularly K’s 16-17 batters a game, preventing them from even putting a single ball in play. He barely ever walks anyone, greatly limiting the damage from opposing teams’ hits and home runs when they do happen. Super Verlander only pitches 34-35 games, but his presence in each game adds a massive chunk to his team’s odds of winning that game.
At the very least, even if one doesn’t believe Super Verlander is quite exactly up with Super Ellsbury, the gap is much smaller than “150 vs 35” sounds. Being a little more facetious regarding pitcher vs position player, you can also ask yourself your gut reaction to this: would it hurt a team’s season more to start Darnell McDonald for 150 games or give Kyle Weiland 35 starts?
"We’re the Sox. Not Apple Sox. We ain’t no Barbeque Sox. We’re the Red Sox.’’ - David Ortiz
That's not really a fair way to guage how much a position player impacts the game.
A position player DIRECTLY impacts the game for every plate appearance, base-stealing attempt and defensive chance. And in each of those cases his influence is at least as much as any pitcher has over a PA.
When you add all those up, it ends up that Ellsbury directly influenced quite a few more plays than Verlander.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
if he isn't excluded, he is included
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I hate free agency
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