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How Yoennis Cespedes Would Work For The Red Sox

Cuban-defectee Yoennis Cespedes is living in the Dominican Republic right now, as is often the case for escaped Cubans looking to play baseball. New Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington is taking a break from the search for a manager to personally scout Cespedes, and see if he fits into Boston's 2012 plans. 

How could Cespedes work in Boston? If everything that is supposedly known about him is true, then he is a power-hitting outfielder who is capable of playing defense in center. That is a lovely combination, as Jacoby Ellsbury's 2011 season reminds you, and, like Ellsbury, Cespedes is still young, at 26 years old.

The age is an important factor, for one key reason. Cuba's national team is generally excellent, but it's an All-Star team of the very best the country has to offer. We shouldn't be surprised at their talent. The Cuban league as a whole is less talented -- it's good baseball, but for reference, it's somewhere around the New York-Penn League in terms of comparison. This is why someone like Kendrys Morales struggled upon coming to the states, as he was 23 years old, coming from a league that faced opponents with the talent level of the Lowell Spinners to one where 2006 AL Cy Young winner Johan Santana was striking out 265 batters in 233 innings. After a few years, Morales had a huge spring, and continued his breakout, finally delivering on the promise everyone saw in him when he was available, much like Cespedes is today.

Cespedes will be in his age-26 season in 2012, as his birthday is in October. He might not be an immediate dominating force despite his talent -- it is a jarring talent switch, as was mentioned -- but chances are also good he won't take as long to come around as Morales, who struggled to make his mark for three years in the majors despite some success in the minors. 

The ceiling of Cespedes is considered to be much higher than that of the two right field options Boston currently possesses, Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish, though it isn't a guarantee he pans out. Then again, it's not guarantee Reddick or Kalish can hold down the right field job in 2012, as Kalish missed almost all of 2011 due to injury following a 2010 when he proved his bat wasn't ready for the majors, and Reddick, while productive overall, is still very inconsistent. Personally, I think Reddick can be above-average out there thanks to the combination of his defense and bat, and Kalish can be, too, but probably not until 2013. I don't know anything about Cespedes besides what everyone else knows -- there is a lot of talent there, and he dominated Cuban ball.

Cespedes will want a major league contract, and the Red Sox have a spot for him in right field if they want to hold Reddick and Kalish in the minors once again, or trade one of them to help them acquire pitching this winter. Center field is his preference, but it has been reported through agent Adam Katz that a corner outfield spot isn't a deal breaker, so long as he's a major leaguer in 2012. Boston has the money to match anyone else attempting to get Cespedes, they have the roster spot available, and they have the backup in either Reddick or Kalish to back up Cespedes in the outfield, should he prove to be ultimately unready for the bigs, like some of his countrymen before him in their inaugural campaigns. 

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I would approve. Start him off in right, gauge his ability to play center. If Jacoby leaves as a FA, you slide him over and play whomever is left in the organization from the Reddick/Kalish duo. If he doesn’t, you’ve got a relatively young outfield, as well as the most athletic outfield in the game.

by Josh Amaral on Nov 18, 2011 11:04 AM EST reply actions  

My first thought is

this guy is going to get overpaid. If dominating the Cuban League at 25 is anything like dominating the NY-Penn League, then it only shows that we is a ML player, not a star or even a lock to be average. The real danger, though, is not that he won’t have the talent but that developing the talent at without the benefit of minor league season will be too much. I am not sure of the success rate for players who are forced to play in the majors without time in the minors, but my sense is it is not good. Wily Mo Pena comes to mind. The Morales comp is great, and might even be a best case scenario. Many players don’t handle failure well and at the major league level it is unavoidable. If he comes up and plays at near replacement for 2012 and works his way up to an above average player by 2014, I’d rather not bother, between Reddick, Kalish, Brentz and Jacobs, we will probably have a plus RF of our own in 2014 without paying much for it. However, 2012 is where the needs to focus their RF efforts and I don’t think he will address that substantially better than Reddick or Kalish.

- Matt Sullivan
"I would change policy, bring back natural grass and nickel beer. Baseball is the belly-button of our society. Straighten out baseball, and you straighten out the rest of the world." Bill "Spaceman" Lee
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by Mattsullivan on Nov 18, 2011 11:08 AM EST reply actions  

Hard to say without very much actual scouting information on him.

My conservative side says, “Caution!”, but i am intrigued by his reported potential. Every single one of these guys is different but a key issue with being ‘ready’ for almost all players is simple physical maturity. Most male athletes don’t fully mature until 25-26. That has almost as much to do with the development lag of some of these players as does their exposure to appropriate training and competition levels.

So Cespedes may be more ‘ready’ than a lot of these imports who have come over at younger ages.

Cherington will get a chance to see him in the flesh today and hopefully be able to better assess the risk/reward equation after that.

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Nov 18, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

I don’t think, because of the difference in talent levels, you can just look at stats (not that you were doing that or advocating for it, Matt). You acquire a Cespedes on purely a scouting level. You’re projecting him, based on tools, to be able to excel against Major League pitching.

But certainly caution is warranted here.

Writer at Over The Monster. Follow me on Twitter! It'll be super awesome fun! @mattymatty2000

by Matthew Kory on Nov 18, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree with this take

I feel like, even in the best case scenario, he won’t be all that great in 2012. Even elite prospects who dominate at AAA generate take a few months at least to fully adjust to MLB pitching, and this guy has the added burden of also having to learn to function in a different culture. Plus there’s no doubt that there’s a bigger jump in pitching talent between Cuba and MLB and AAA and MLB. If he would be willing to spend a few months to a year in AAA that’d be different, but for a perennial contender like Boston it makes no sense to guarantee him a spot on the big league roster when he likely won’t be all that good until 2013 at least.

by pwangsta on Nov 18, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions  

Sign him and let him work his way through the system, while signing Cuddyer for now. If he makes it quickly,Cuddyer will still be useful all over the diamond . Signing Ells to an extension,at the cost of losing Papelbon,would make Papelbon’s loss more understandable.

by Robert57 on Nov 19, 2011 8:29 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd prefer just giving Reddick or Kalish a shot to Cuddyer

just because he is likely to tie up a lot of money in a very one-dimensional player. I’d rather have that money available next season for pitching.

by wolf9309 on Nov 19, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I mostly agree, but do note one difference between A-ball and Cuba.

While the Cuban League may be A level, and Korea is AA, and Japan is AAA, that only measures the league as a whole. The stars of any league outside our system can be stars in any other league anywhere. In other words, the average may be at the A/AA/AAA level, but the elite are simply that – elite. The AA and AAA elite are now major leaguers, but, in their country, the elite are already at the highest level they can go.

If Cespedes is, in fact, elite, he’s going to show it after a short adaptive period. It’s not like he’s simply the best in the NY-Penn league even if that’s the only level where he’s played.

by dsharp on Nov 18, 2011 11:27 AM EST reply actions  

yes, I don't mean to imply that in my comment above

If he was dominating the Cuban League, he was see a few Chapman’s and the like who are well above A or AA players, but he wasn’t seeing top guys every PA. That will be as much a test of his make up as his talent. Maybe it takes 2 months for him to adjust (like it took Pedey) but I would expect more.

- Matt Sullivan
"I would change policy, bring back natural grass and nickel beer. Baseball is the belly-button of our society. Straighten out baseball, and you straighten out the rest of the world." Bill "Spaceman" Lee
www.overthemonster.com
www.spacemanspancakes.wordpress.com

by Mattsullivan on Nov 18, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Exactly

If someone slugs over .600 at Low-A, you notice him, especially if he has the tools, as Cespedes supposedly does.

by Marc Normandin on Nov 18, 2011 12:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Let him go somewhere else

Too much risk, probably won’t be that great in 2012-2013 as he learns the league and we have a strong OF pipeline.

How would you like to pay $40M and get nothing in return? For perspective, would you pay $40M to acquire an elite prospect in A ball today?

by Z3rogs on Nov 18, 2011 12:44 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

I wouldn't be dead-set against him

But we do still have Reddick, who did well even if he didn’t light the world on fire, in right now. Remember he started slow in AAA too, then bounced back at the end of last year to earn a promotion. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do well in 2013

I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.

by TheLoneDavid on Nov 18, 2011 12:52 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

One thing that may help him.

Is the fact that if came to the Sox or Yankees, he’d probably be the fifth or sixth best hitter on the team so he wouldn’t be counted to carry the offense. So if he struggles the team can still win.

by aubatron2011 on Nov 18, 2011 2:27 PM EST reply actions  

cost

it dosent cost most fans anything so who cares how much he paid all we care about is if he can play pay him now and keep him from the STANKEE’S he ‘s a player and if it’s 6-8 or 10 million a yr who cares we need protection so when ellsbury does leave just like papelbomb did and make no mistake he is leaving because of how he feel’s he was treated when he got injured sign him now its insurance

by deerkila on Nov 20, 2011 6:37 PM EST reply actions  

wow, congratulations

you have created my new least favorite post

by wolf9309 on Nov 20, 2011 7:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Do me a favor.

Go up and click that link in the corner, the one that says “log out.” Then forget your password. Thanks.

I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.

by TheLoneDavid on Nov 20, 2011 11:29 PM EST up reply actions  

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