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2011 Red Sox, Against The Odds

Here is a look at how the Red Sox 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season.  If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Red Sox games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5695 which translates to an expected win total of 92.27 games.  If you do the same for my simulation of each Red Sox game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5578 or 90.36 wins.  The Red Sox actually went 90-72 on the season.  Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Red Sox were the largest favorite to win.

Rank Date Away SP Home SP Away Home Fave Fave Win Perc BOS Win Perc Sim BOS Win Perc Winning Team Away Runs Home Runs Total Runs
1 07-28-2011 Luke Hochevar Josh Beckett KC BOS BOS 72.863 72.863 74.704 KC 4 3 7
2 07-23-2011 Blake Beavan Josh Beckett SEA BOS BOS 72.49 72.49 71.051 BOS 1 3 4
3 07-25-2011 Kyle Davies Jon Lester KC BOS BOS 72.376 72.376 73.052 KC 3 1 4
4 08-27-2011 Guillermo Moscoso Jon Lester OAK BOS BOS 71.631 71.631 68.943 BOS 3 9 12
5 08-02-11 David Huff Josh Beckett CLE BOS BOS 71.347 71.347 71.642 BOS 2 3 5
6 08-27-2011 Graham Godfrey Erik Bedard OAK BOS BOS 71.056 71.056 71.096 BOS 0 4 4
7 09-21-2011 Tommy Hunter Josh Beckett BAL BOS BOS 70.803 70.803 65.28 BAL 6 4 10
8 05-20-2011 Doug Davis Jon Lester CHN BOS BOS 69.419 69.419 65.528 BOS 5 15 20
9 09-20-2011 Rick VandenHurk Erik Bedard BAL BOS BOS 69.231 69.231 70.41 BAL 7 5 12
10 09-19-2011 Brian Matusz John Lackey BAL BOS BOS 68.992 68.992 62.7 BOS 9 18 27
11 08-21-2011 Jon Lester Danny Duffy BOS KC BOS 68.254 68.254 63.213 BOS 6 1 7
12 05-09-11 Nick Blackburn Josh Beckett MIN BOS BOS 67.742 67.742 70.215 BOS 1 2 3
13 04-17-2011 Jesse Litsch Jon Lester TOR BOS BOS 67.742 67.742 70.382 BOS 1 8 9
14 09-26-2011 Josh Beckett Tommy Hunter BOS BAL BOS 67.742 67.742 56.978 BAL 3 6 9
15 07-05-11 Brett Cecil Jon Lester TOR BOS BOS 67.213 67.213 66.916 BOS 2 3 5
16 07-08-11 Zach Britton Josh Beckett BAL BOS BOS 66.997 66.997 59.843 BOS 3 10 13
17 06-22-2011 Clayton Richard John Lackey SD BOS BOS 66.887 66.887 60.449 SD 5 1 6
18 04-16-2011 Jo-Jo Reyes Josh Beckett TOR BOS BOS 66.667 66.667 61.215 BOS 1 4 5
19 09-28-2011 Jon Lester Alfredo Simon BOS BAL BOS 66.102 66.102 60.743 BAL 3 4 7
20 07-27-2011 Bruce Chen John Lackey KC BOS BOS 65.812 65.812 68.753 BOS 5 12 17
21 09-01-11 A.J. Burnett Jon Lester NYA BOS BOS 65.636 65.636 60.186 NYA 4 2 6
22 04-29-2011 Jason Vargas Daisuke Matsuzaka SEA BOS BOS 65.636 65.636 57.295 SEA 5 4 9
23 05-22-2011 James Russell Tim Wakefield CHN BOS BOS 65.398 65.398 59.727 BOS 1 5 6
24 07-03-11 Josh Beckett Jordan Lyles BOS HOU BOS 65.035 65.035 65.086 BOS 2 1 3
25 05-08-11 Carl Pavano Daisuke Matsuzaka MIN BOS BOS 64.789 64.789 64.536 BOS 5 9 14
26 08-10-11 Jon Lester Nick Blackburn BOS MIN BOS 64.727 64.727 59.394 MIN 2 5 7
27 06-03-11 Josh Outman Clay Buchholz OAK BOS BOS 64.476 64.476 58.933 BOS 6 8 14
28 06-04-11 Trevor Cahill Josh Beckett OAK BOS BOS 64.476 64.476 60.909 BOS 8 9 17
29 04-30-2011 Doug Fister John Lackey SEA BOS BOS 64.286 64.286 58.85 SEA 2 0 2
30 06-20-2011 Wade LeBlanc Andrew Miller SD BOS BOS 64.222 64.222 66.051 BOS 5 14 19
31 08-18-2011 Josh Beckett Luke Hochevar BOS KC BOS 64.222 64.222 63.383 BOS 4 3 7
32 07-26-2011 Danny Duffy Andrew Miller KC BOS BOS 63.702 63.702 68.365 BOS 9 13 22
33 06-18-2011 Randy Wolf Jon Lester MIL BOS BOS 63.636 63.636 73.483 MIL 4 2 6
34 05-04-11 Ervin Santana Josh Beckett LAA BOS BOS 63.57 63.57 62.538 LAA 5 3 8
35 09-06-11 Jon Lester Luis Perez BOS TOR BOS 63.57 63.57 61.718 BOS 14 0 14
36 04-15-2011 Brett Cecil Clay Buchholz TOR BOS BOS 63.437 63.437 55.136 TOR 7 6 13
37 08-01-11 Josh Tomlin John Lackey CLE BOS BOS 63.37 63.37 64.403 CLE 9 6 15
38 04-07-11 Jon Lester Fausto Carmona BOS CLE BOS 63.37 63.37 58.771 CLE 0 1 1
39 04-28-2011 Jon Lester Brad Bergesen BOS BAL BOS 63.303 63.303 60.709 BOS 6 2 8
40 05-16-2011 Chris Tillman Daisuke Matsuzaka BAL BOS BOS 63.303 63.303 57.765 BOS 7 8 15
41 08-03-11 Carlos Carrasco Tim Wakefield CLE BOS BOS 62.756 62.756 59.998 BOS 3 4 7
42 04-12-11 David Price Jon Lester TB BOS BOS 62.477 62.477 57.439 TB 3 2 5
43 06-12-11 Jon Lester Kyle Drabek BOS TOR BOS 62.406 62.406 62.076 BOS 14 1 15
44 09-17-2011 Jeff Niemann Jon Lester TB BOS BOS 61.977 61.977 65.68 TB 4 3 7
45 08-04-11 Justin Masterson Erik Bedard CLE BOS BOS 61.905 61.905 60.583 CLE 7 3 10
46 09-05-11 Josh Beckett Henderson Alvarez BOS TOR BOS 61.832 61.832 61.799 TOR 0 1 1
47 07-09-11 Alfredo Simon John Lackey BAL BOS BOS 61.759 61.759 61.881 BOS 0 4 4
48 09-19-2011 Jeremy Guthrie Kyle Weiland BAL BOS BOS 61.686 61.686 61.06 BAL 6 5 11
49 06-24-2011 Jon Lester Paul Maholm BOS PIT BOS 61.315 61.315 59.264 PIT 1 3 4
50 07-10-11 Mitch Atkins Kyle Weiland BAL BOS BOS 61.24 61.24 63.585 BOS 6 8 14
51 05-31-2011 Phil Humber Alfredo Aceves CHA BOS BOS 61.24 61.24 57.172 CHA 10 7 17
52 05-18-2011 Phil Coke Clay Buchholz DET BOS BOS 61.165 61.165 57.098 BOS 0 1 1
53 05-25-2011 Jon Lester Mitch Talbot BOS CLE BOS 61.165 61.165 57.334 BOS 14 2 16
54 08-31-2011 Phil Hughes Josh Beckett NYA BOS BOS 61.165 61.165 57.82 BOS 5 9 14
55 09-27-2011 Erik Bedard Zach Britton BOS BAL BOS 61.165 61.165 52.686 BOS 8 7 15
56 04-21-2011 Josh Beckett Tyler Chatwood BOS LAA BOS 60.707 60.707 60.211 BOS 4 2 6
57 08-14-2011 Tim Wakefield Charles Furbush BOS SEA BOS 60.552 60.552 58.282 SEA 3 5 8
58 08-05-11 Bartolo Colon Jon Lester NYA BOS BOS 60.396 60.396 58.374 NYA 3 2 5
59 08-16-2011 Jeff Niemann Erik Bedard TB BOS BOS 60.239 60.239 66.066 TB 6 2 8
60 08-07-11 Freddy Garcia Josh Beckett NYA BOS BOS 60.159 60.159 57.301 BOS 2 3 5
61 05-10-11 Jon Lester Kyle Drabek BOS TOR BOS 60.159 60.159 64.164 TOR 6 7 13
62 05-07-11 Brian Duensing Clay Buchholz MIN BOS BOS 60.08 60.08 56.885 BOS 0 4 4
63 07-07-11 Jake Arrieta Andrew Miller BAL BOS BOS 60.08 60.08 58.809 BOS 4 10 14
64 04-05-11 Josh Beckett Josh Tomlin BOS CLE BOS 60 60 56.184 CLE 1 3 4
65 04-06-11 Daisuke Matsuzaka Mitch Talbot BOS CLE BOS 59.839 59.839 55.587 CLE 4 8 12
66 08-16-2011 James Shields Jon Lester TB BOS BOS 59.759 59.759 65.308 BOS 1 3 4
67 05-05-11 Joel Pineiro John Lackey LAA BOS BOS 59.35 59.35 63.756 LAA 11 0 11
68 04-27-2011 Josh Beckett Jeremy Guthrie BOS BAL BOS 59.267 59.267 50.947 BAL 4 5 9
69 04-11-11 Jeremy Hellickson Daisuke Matsuzaka TB BOS BOS 59.184 59.184 57.948 TB 16 5 21
70 05-21-2011 Carlos Zambrano Alfredo Aceves CHN BOS BOS 59.184 59.184 56.399 CHN 9 3 12
71 04-09-11 Ivan Nova Clay Buchholz NYA BOS BOS 59.1 59.1 52.562 NYA 9 4 13
72 08-26-2011 Gio Gonzalez Tim Wakefield OAK BOS BOS 59.1 59.1 54.106 OAK 15 5 20
73 05-03-11 Dan Haren Jon Lester LAA BOS BOS 59.016 59.016 60.319 BOS 3 7 10
74 08-12-11 John Lackey Blake Beavan BOS SEA BOS 58.592 58.592 59.663 BOS 6 4 10
75 07-24-2011 Michael Pineda Tim Wakefield SEA BOS BOS 58.592 58.592 57.948 BOS 8 12 20
76 07-04-11 Brandon Morrow John Lackey TOR BOS BOS 58.42 58.42 56.175 TOR 9 7 16
77 09-03-11 Colby Lewis Erik Bedard TEX BOS BOS 58.333 58.333 63.495 BOS 7 12 19
78 06-10-11 Clay Buchholz Jo-Jo Reyes BOS TOR BOS 58.246 58.246 50.039 BOS 5 1 6
79 07-30-2011 Jon Lester Phil Humber BOS CHA BOS 58.071 58.071 54.476 BOS 10 2 12
80 06-01-11 Gavin Floyd Tim Wakefield CHA BOS BOS 57.895 57.895 57.717 CHA 7 4 11
81 05-06-11 Scott Baker Tim Wakefield MIN BOS BOS 57.717 57.717 59.582 MIN 9 2 11
82 07-02-11 Andrew Miller J.A. Happ BOS HOU BOS 57.537 57.537 53.998 BOS 10 4 14
83 08-13-2011 Josh Beckett Felx Hernandez BOS SEA BOS 57.537 57.537 57.335 SEA 4 5 9
84 09-13-2011 Brandon Morrow Tim Wakefield TOR BOS BOS 57.537 57.537 59.265 BOS 6 18 24
85 09-16-2011 James Shields Josh Beckett TB BOS BOS 57.356 57.356 64.227 BOS 3 4 7
86 09-24-2011 Jon Lester Freddy Garcia BOS NYA BOS 57.265 57.265 45.54 NYA 1 9 10
87 07-17-2011 Josh Beckett Jeff Niemann BOS TB BOS 57.082 57.082 58.527 BOS 1 0 1
88 05-19-2011 Justin Verlander Josh Beckett DET BOS BOS 56.989 56.989 61.87 BOS 3 4 7
89 07-22-2011 Felx Hernandez John Lackey SEA BOS BOS 56.989 56.989 59.967 BOS 4 7 11
90 04-24-2011 John Lackey Matt Palmer BOS LAA BOS 56.803 56.803 58.823 BOS 7 0 7
91 09-02-11 Derek Holland Andrew Miller TEX BOS BOS 56.427 56.427 51.779 TEX 10 0 10
92 06-25-2011 Tim Wakefield Jeff Karstens BOS PIT BOS 56.427 56.427 53.689 PIT 4 6 10
93 05-24-2011 Josh Beckett Fausto Carmona BOS CLE BOS 56.236 56.236 56.181 BOS 4 2 6
94 04-03-11 Clay Buchholz Matt Harrison BOS TEX BOS 55.947 55.947 47.209 TEX 1 5 6
95 05-15-2011 Jon Lester Freddy Garcia BOS NYA BOS 55.947 55.947 50.665 BOS 7 5 12
96 08-09-11 Erik Bedard Francisco Liriano BOS MIN BOS 55.85 55.85 53.634 BOS 4 3 7
97 06-17-2011 Shaun Marcum John Lackey MIL BOS BOS 55.752 55.752 65.056 BOS 4 10 14
98 04-08-11 Phil Hughes John Lackey NYA BOS BOS 55.556 55.556 52.551 BOS 6 9 15
99 04-18-2011 Ricky Romero Daisuke Matsuzaka TOR BOS BOS 55.457 55.457 50.222 BOS 1 9 10
100 06-05-11 Brett Anderson John Lackey OAK BOS BOS 55.257 55.257 43.713 BOS 3 6 9
101 04-26-2011 Clay Buchholz Zach Britton BOS BAL BOS 55.257 55.257 42.482 BAL 1 4 5
102 07-01-11 Tim Wakefield Bud Norris BOS HOU BOS 55.056 55.056 50.454 BOS 7 5 12
103 09-04-11 Matt Harrison John Lackey TEX BOS BOS 54.853 54.853 51.133 TEX 11 4 15
104 06-15-2011 Josh Beckett Jeremy Hellickson BOS TB BOS 54.853 54.853 55.223 BOS 3 0 3
105 07-18-2011 Tim Wakefield Brad Bergesen BOS BAL BOS 54.853 54.853 52.036 BOS 15 10 25
106 08-20-2011 Tim Wakefield Felipe Paulino BOS KC BOS 54.853 54.853 52.322 KC 4 9 13
107 06-26-2011 Andrew Miller James McDonald BOS PIT BOS 54.649 54.649 57.02 BOS 4 2 6
108 08-19-2011 Andrew Miller Jeff Francis BOS KC BOS 54.649 54.649 54.172 BOS 7 1 8
109 06-21-2011 Mat Latos Afredo Aceves SD BOS BOS 54.442 54.442 54.431 SD 5 4 9
110 08-08-11 Tim Wakefield Scott Baker BOS MIN BOS 54.233 54.233 43.508 BOS 8 6 14
111 06-07-11 Jon Lester Freddy Garcia BOS NYA BOS 54.023 54.023 48.548 BOS 6 4 10
112 05-11-11 John Lackey Jesse Litsch BOS TOR BOS 53.811 53.811 58.01 TOR 3 9 12
113 05-23-2011 Clay Buchholz Justin Masterson BOS CLE BOS 53.596 53.596 47.763 CLE 2 3 5
114 04-01-11 Jon Lester C.J. Wilson BOS TEX BOS 53.271 53.271 45.361 TEX 5 9 14
115 07-20-2011 Andrew Miller Jake Arrieta BOS BAL BOS 52.941 52.941 53.574 BOS 4 0 4
116 07-06-11 Ricky Romero Tim Wakefield TOR BOS BOS 52.494 52.494 53.171 BOS 4 6 10
117 05-29-2011 Clay Buchholz Andrew Oliver BOS DET BOS 52.381 52.381 52.182 BOS 4 3 7
118 05-30-2011 Jake Peavy Jon Lester CHA BOS BOS 52.381 52.381 64.077 CHA 7 3 10
119 09-14-2011 Ricky Romero John Lackey TOR BOS BOS 52.267 52.267 62.148 TOR 5 4 9
120 07-19-2011 Kyle Weiland Jeremy Guthrie BOS BAL BOS 51.574 51.574 49.847 BAL 2 6 8
121 09-15-2011 Jeremy Hellickson Kyle Weiland TB BOS BOS 51.456 51.456 59.831 TB 9 2 11
122 09-11-11 Jon Lester James Shields BOS TB BOS 51.338 51.338 55.649 TB 1 9 10
123 04-22-2011 Jon Lester Dan Haren BOS LAA BOS 51.1 51.1 52.563 BOS 4 3 7
124 06-19-2011 Yovanni Gallardo Tim Wakefield MIL BOS BOS 51.1 51.1 63.029 BOS 3 12 15
125 08-17-2011 David Price John Lackey TB BOS BOS 50.86 50.86 58.813 TB 4 0 4
126 08-24-2011 Josh Beckett Matt Harrison BOS TEX BOS 50.739 50.739 46.791 BOS 13 2 15
127 05-01-11 Felx Hernandez Tim Wakefield SEA BOS SEA 50 50 51.489 BOS 2 3 5
128 09-25-2011 Tim Wakefield A.J. Burnett BOS NYA NYA 50 50 39.578 NYA 2 6 8
129 09-09-11 John Lackey Wade Davis BOS TB TB 50.249 49.751 54.357 TB 2 7 9
130 07-29-2011 Tim Wakefield Gavin Floyd BOS CHA CHA 50.617 49.383 47.926 CHA 1 3 4
131 05-02-11 Jered Weaver Clay Buchholz LAA BOS LAA 50.739 49.261 50.074 BOS 5 9 14
132 09-07-11 Tim Wakefield Brandon Morrow BOS TOR TOR 50.86 49.14 48.552 TOR 10 11 21
133 04-20-2011 Clay Buchholz Gio Gonzalez BOS OAK OAK 50.98 49.02 39.623 BOS 5 3 8
134 04-23-2011 Daisuke Matsuzaka Ervin Santana BOS LAA LAA 51.574 48.426 50.418 BOS 5 0 5
135 04-02-11 John Lackey Colby Lewis BOS TEX TEX 51.691 48.309 47.297 TEX 5 12 17
136 05-27-2011 Tim Wakefield Rick Porcello BOS DET DET 52.267 47.733 48.888 BOS 6 3 9
137 04-10-11 C.C. Sabathia Josh Beckett NYA BOS NYA 52.494 47.506 39.597 BOS 0 4 4
138 04-19-2011 John Lackey Brett Anderson BOS OAK OAK 52.494 47.506 37.352 OAK 0 5 5
139 05-26-2011 Alfredo Aceves Max Scherzer BOS DET DET 52.494 47.506 46.11 BOS 14 1 15
140 06-11-11 John Lackey Brandon Morrow BOS TOR TOR 52.83 47.17 44.746 BOS 16 4 20
141 07-31-2011 Andrew Miller Mark Buehrle BOS CHA CHA 52.941 47.059 48.72 BOS 5 3 8
142 05-13-2011 Clay Buchholz Bartolo Colon BOS NYA NYA 53.162 46.838 42.207 BOS 5 4 9
143 06-16-2011 Clay Buchholz David Price BOS TB TB 53.162 46.838 42.89 BOS 4 2 6
144 06-30-2011 Jon Lester Cole Hamels BOS PHI PHI 53.811 46.189 40.244 BOS 5 2 7
145 06-14-2011 Tim Wakefield James Shields BOS TB TB 54.023 45.977 48.265 TB 0 4 4
146 06-28-2011 Josh Beckett Cliff Lee BOS PHI PHI 54.023 45.977 39.159 PHI 0 5 5
147 06-08-11 Tim Wakefield A.J. Burnett BOS NYA NYA 54.649 45.351 42.228 BOS 11 6 17
148 06-29-2011 John Lackey Vance Worley BOS PHI PHI 54.649 45.351 47.589 PHI 1 2 3
149 06-09-11 Josh Beckett C.C. Sabathia BOS NYA NYA 55.056 44.944 39.438 BOS 8 3 11
150 05-14-2011 Josh Beckett C.C. Sabathia BOS NYA NYA 55.257 44.743 36.818 BOS 6 0 6
151 09-08-11 Andrew Miller Ricky Romero BOS TOR TOR 55.556 44.444 50.094 TOR 4 7 11
152 08-22-2011 Erik Bedard C.J. Wilson BOS TEX TEX 56.803 43.197 43.596 TEX 0 4 4
153 07-16-2011 John Lackey James Shields BOS TB TB 57.356 42.644 48.987 BOS 9 5 14
154 09-18-2011 David Price Tim Wakefield TB BOS TB 57.627 42.373 52.67 TB 8 5 13
155 08-23-2011 John Lackey Colby Lewis BOS TEX TEX 57.983 42.017 47.608 BOS 11 5 16
156 07-15-2011 Andrew Miller David Price BOS TB TB 58.592 41.408 41.045 TB 6 9 15
157 08-06-11 C.C. Sabathia John Lackey NYA BOS NYA 58.763 41.237 44.583 BOS 4 10 14
158 09-10-11 Kyle Weiland Jeremy Hellickson BOS TB TB 58.763 41.237 50.75 TB 5 6 11
159 09-25-2011 John Lackey Ivan Nova BOS NYA NYA 58.848 41.152 39.937 BOS 7 4 11
160 08-30-2011 C.C. Sabathia John Lackey NYA BOS NYA 59.1 40.9 45.529 NYA 5 2 7
161 08-25-2011 Andrew Miller Alexi Ogando BOS TEX TEX 61.538 38.462 39.055 BOS 6 0 6
162 05-29-2011 Josh Beckett Justin Verlander BOS DET DET 62.264 37.736 51.585 DET 0 3 3

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