2011 Red Sox, Against The Odds

by Xeifrank on Nov 16, 2011 10:42 AM EST

Here is a look at how the Red Sox 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Red Sox games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5695 which translates to an expected win total of 92.27 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Red Sox game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.5578 or 90.36 wins. The Red Sox actually went 90-72 on the season. Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Red Sox were the largest favorite to win.

Rank	Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	BOS Win Perc	Sim BOS Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
1	07-28-2011	Luke Hochevar	Josh Beckett	KC	BOS	BOS	72.863	72.863	74.704	KC	4	3	7
2	07-23-2011	Blake Beavan	Josh Beckett	SEA	BOS	BOS	72.49	72.49	71.051	BOS	1	3	4
3	07-25-2011	Kyle Davies	Jon Lester	KC	BOS	BOS	72.376	72.376	73.052	KC	3	1	4
4	08-27-2011	Guillermo Moscoso	Jon Lester	OAK	BOS	BOS	71.631	71.631	68.943	BOS	3	9	12
5	08-02-11	David Huff	Josh Beckett	CLE	BOS	BOS	71.347	71.347	71.642	BOS	2	3	5
6	08-27-2011	Graham Godfrey	Erik Bedard	OAK	BOS	BOS	71.056	71.056	71.096	BOS	0	4	4
7	09-21-2011	Tommy Hunter	Josh Beckett	BAL	BOS	BOS	70.803	70.803	65.28	BAL	6	4	10
8	05-20-2011	Doug Davis	Jon Lester	CHN	BOS	BOS	69.419	69.419	65.528	BOS	5	15	20
9	09-20-2011	Rick VandenHurk	Erik Bedard	BAL	BOS	BOS	69.231	69.231	70.41	BAL	7	5	12
10	09-19-2011	Brian Matusz	John Lackey	BAL	BOS	BOS	68.992	68.992	62.7	BOS	9	18	27
11	08-21-2011	Jon Lester	Danny Duffy	BOS	KC	BOS	68.254	68.254	63.213	BOS	6	1	7
12	05-09-11	Nick Blackburn	Josh Beckett	MIN	BOS	BOS	67.742	67.742	70.215	BOS	1	2	3
13	04-17-2011	Jesse Litsch	Jon Lester	TOR	BOS	BOS	67.742	67.742	70.382	BOS	1	8	9
14	09-26-2011	Josh Beckett	Tommy Hunter	BOS	BAL	BOS	67.742	67.742	56.978	BAL	3	6	9
15	07-05-11	Brett Cecil	Jon Lester	TOR	BOS	BOS	67.213	67.213	66.916	BOS	2	3	5
16	07-08-11	Zach Britton	Josh Beckett	BAL	BOS	BOS	66.997	66.997	59.843	BOS	3	10	13
17	06-22-2011	Clayton Richard	John Lackey	SD	BOS	BOS	66.887	66.887	60.449	SD	5	1	6
18	04-16-2011	Jo-Jo Reyes	Josh Beckett	TOR	BOS	BOS	66.667	66.667	61.215	BOS	1	4	5
19	09-28-2011	Jon Lester	Alfredo Simon	BOS	BAL	BOS	66.102	66.102	60.743	BAL	3	4	7
20	07-27-2011	Bruce Chen	John Lackey	KC	BOS	BOS	65.812	65.812	68.753	BOS	5	12	17
21	09-01-11	A.J. Burnett	Jon Lester	NYA	BOS	BOS	65.636	65.636	60.186	NYA	4	2	6
22	04-29-2011	Jason Vargas	Daisuke Matsuzaka	SEA	BOS	BOS	65.636	65.636	57.295	SEA	5	4	9
23	05-22-2011	James Russell	Tim Wakefield	CHN	BOS	BOS	65.398	65.398	59.727	BOS	1	5	6
24	07-03-11	Josh Beckett	Jordan Lyles	BOS	HOU	BOS	65.035	65.035	65.086	BOS	2	1	3
25	05-08-11	Carl Pavano	Daisuke Matsuzaka	MIN	BOS	BOS	64.789	64.789	64.536	BOS	5	9	14
26	08-10-11	Jon Lester	Nick Blackburn	BOS	MIN	BOS	64.727	64.727	59.394	MIN	2	5	7
27	06-03-11	Josh Outman	Clay Buchholz	OAK	BOS	BOS	64.476	64.476	58.933	BOS	6	8	14
28	06-04-11	Trevor Cahill	Josh Beckett	OAK	BOS	BOS	64.476	64.476	60.909	BOS	8	9	17
29	04-30-2011	Doug Fister	John Lackey	SEA	BOS	BOS	64.286	64.286	58.85	SEA	2	0	2
30	06-20-2011	Wade LeBlanc	Andrew Miller	SD	BOS	BOS	64.222	64.222	66.051	BOS	5	14	19
31	08-18-2011	Josh Beckett	Luke Hochevar	BOS	KC	BOS	64.222	64.222	63.383	BOS	4	3	7
32	07-26-2011	Danny Duffy	Andrew Miller	KC	BOS	BOS	63.702	63.702	68.365	BOS	9	13	22
33	06-18-2011	Randy Wolf	Jon Lester	MIL	BOS	BOS	63.636	63.636	73.483	MIL	4	2	6
34	05-04-11	Ervin Santana	Josh Beckett	LAA	BOS	BOS	63.57	63.57	62.538	LAA	5	3	8
35	09-06-11	Jon Lester	Luis Perez	BOS	TOR	BOS	63.57	63.57	61.718	BOS	14	0	14
36	04-15-2011	Brett Cecil	Clay Buchholz	TOR	BOS	BOS	63.437	63.437	55.136	TOR	7	6	13
37	08-01-11	Josh Tomlin	John Lackey	CLE	BOS	BOS	63.37	63.37	64.403	CLE	9	6	15
38	04-07-11	Jon Lester	Fausto Carmona	BOS	CLE	BOS	63.37	63.37	58.771	CLE	0	1	1
39	04-28-2011	Jon Lester	Brad Bergesen	BOS	BAL	BOS	63.303	63.303	60.709	BOS	6	2	8
40	05-16-2011	Chris Tillman	Daisuke Matsuzaka	BAL	BOS	BOS	63.303	63.303	57.765	BOS	7	8	15
41	08-03-11	Carlos Carrasco	Tim Wakefield	CLE	BOS	BOS	62.756	62.756	59.998	BOS	3	4	7
42	04-12-11	David Price	Jon Lester	TB	BOS	BOS	62.477	62.477	57.439	TB	3	2	5
43	06-12-11	Jon Lester	Kyle Drabek	BOS	TOR	BOS	62.406	62.406	62.076	BOS	14	1	15
44	09-17-2011	Jeff Niemann	Jon Lester	TB	BOS	BOS	61.977	61.977	65.68	TB	4	3	7
45	08-04-11	Justin Masterson	Erik Bedard	CLE	BOS	BOS	61.905	61.905	60.583	CLE	7	3	10
46	09-05-11	Josh Beckett	Henderson Alvarez	BOS	TOR	BOS	61.832	61.832	61.799	TOR	0	1	1
47	07-09-11	Alfredo Simon	John Lackey	BAL	BOS	BOS	61.759	61.759	61.881	BOS	0	4	4
48	09-19-2011	Jeremy Guthrie	Kyle Weiland	BAL	BOS	BOS	61.686	61.686	61.06	BAL	6	5	11
49	06-24-2011	Jon Lester	Paul Maholm	BOS	PIT	BOS	61.315	61.315	59.264	PIT	1	3	4
50	07-10-11	Mitch Atkins	Kyle Weiland	BAL	BOS	BOS	61.24	61.24	63.585	BOS	6	8	14
51	05-31-2011	Phil Humber	Alfredo Aceves	CHA	BOS	BOS	61.24	61.24	57.172	CHA	10	7	17
52	05-18-2011	Phil Coke	Clay Buchholz	DET	BOS	BOS	61.165	61.165	57.098	BOS	0	1	1
53	05-25-2011	Jon Lester	Mitch Talbot	BOS	CLE	BOS	61.165	61.165	57.334	BOS	14	2	16
54	08-31-2011	Phil Hughes	Josh Beckett	NYA	BOS	BOS	61.165	61.165	57.82	BOS	5	9	14
55	09-27-2011	Erik Bedard	Zach Britton	BOS	BAL	BOS	61.165	61.165	52.686	BOS	8	7	15
56	04-21-2011	Josh Beckett	Tyler Chatwood	BOS	LAA	BOS	60.707	60.707	60.211	BOS	4	2	6
57	08-14-2011	Tim Wakefield	Charles Furbush	BOS	SEA	BOS	60.552	60.552	58.282	SEA	3	5	8
58	08-05-11	Bartolo Colon	Jon Lester	NYA	BOS	BOS	60.396	60.396	58.374	NYA	3	2	5
59	08-16-2011	Jeff Niemann	Erik Bedard	TB	BOS	BOS	60.239	60.239	66.066	TB	6	2	8
60	08-07-11	Freddy Garcia	Josh Beckett	NYA	BOS	BOS	60.159	60.159	57.301	BOS	2	3	5
61	05-10-11	Jon Lester	Kyle Drabek	BOS	TOR	BOS	60.159	60.159	64.164	TOR	6	7	13
62	05-07-11	Brian Duensing	Clay Buchholz	MIN	BOS	BOS	60.08	60.08	56.885	BOS	0	4	4
63	07-07-11	Jake Arrieta	Andrew Miller	BAL	BOS	BOS	60.08	60.08	58.809	BOS	4	10	14
64	04-05-11	Josh Beckett	Josh Tomlin	BOS	CLE	BOS	60	60	56.184	CLE	1	3	4
65	04-06-11	Daisuke Matsuzaka	Mitch Talbot	BOS	CLE	BOS	59.839	59.839	55.587	CLE	4	8	12
66	08-16-2011	James Shields	Jon Lester	TB	BOS	BOS	59.759	59.759	65.308	BOS	1	3	4
67	05-05-11	Joel Pineiro	John Lackey	LAA	BOS	BOS	59.35	59.35	63.756	LAA	11	0	11
68	04-27-2011	Josh Beckett	Jeremy Guthrie	BOS	BAL	BOS	59.267	59.267	50.947	BAL	4	5	9
69	04-11-11	Jeremy Hellickson	Daisuke Matsuzaka	TB	BOS	BOS	59.184	59.184	57.948	TB	16	5	21
70	05-21-2011	Carlos Zambrano	Alfredo Aceves	CHN	BOS	BOS	59.184	59.184	56.399	CHN	9	3	12
71	04-09-11	Ivan Nova	Clay Buchholz	NYA	BOS	BOS	59.1	59.1	52.562	NYA	9	4	13
72	08-26-2011	Gio Gonzalez	Tim Wakefield	OAK	BOS	BOS	59.1	59.1	54.106	OAK	15	5	20
73	05-03-11	Dan Haren	Jon Lester	LAA	BOS	BOS	59.016	59.016	60.319	BOS	3	7	10
74	08-12-11	John Lackey	Blake Beavan	BOS	SEA	BOS	58.592	58.592	59.663	BOS	6	4	10
75	07-24-2011	Michael Pineda	Tim Wakefield	SEA	BOS	BOS	58.592	58.592	57.948	BOS	8	12	20
76	07-04-11	Brandon Morrow	John Lackey	TOR	BOS	BOS	58.42	58.42	56.175	TOR	9	7	16
77	09-03-11	Colby Lewis	Erik Bedard	TEX	BOS	BOS	58.333	58.333	63.495	BOS	7	12	19
78	06-10-11	Clay Buchholz	Jo-Jo Reyes	BOS	TOR	BOS	58.246	58.246	50.039	BOS	5	1	6
79	07-30-2011	Jon Lester	Phil Humber	BOS	CHA	BOS	58.071	58.071	54.476	BOS	10	2	12
80	06-01-11	Gavin Floyd	Tim Wakefield	CHA	BOS	BOS	57.895	57.895	57.717	CHA	7	4	11
81	05-06-11	Scott Baker	Tim Wakefield	MIN	BOS	BOS	57.717	57.717	59.582	MIN	9	2	11
82	07-02-11	Andrew Miller	J.A. Happ	BOS	HOU	BOS	57.537	57.537	53.998	BOS	10	4	14
83	08-13-2011	Josh Beckett	Felx Hernandez	BOS	SEA	BOS	57.537	57.537	57.335	SEA	4	5	9
84	09-13-2011	Brandon Morrow	Tim Wakefield	TOR	BOS	BOS	57.537	57.537	59.265	BOS	6	18	24
85	09-16-2011	James Shields	Josh Beckett	TB	BOS	BOS	57.356	57.356	64.227	BOS	3	4	7
86	09-24-2011	Jon Lester	Freddy Garcia	BOS	NYA	BOS	57.265	57.265	45.54	NYA	1	9	10
87	07-17-2011	Josh Beckett	Jeff Niemann	BOS	TB	BOS	57.082	57.082	58.527	BOS	1	0	1
88	05-19-2011	Justin Verlander	Josh Beckett	DET	BOS	BOS	56.989	56.989	61.87	BOS	3	4	7
89	07-22-2011	Felx Hernandez	John Lackey	SEA	BOS	BOS	56.989	56.989	59.967	BOS	4	7	11
90	04-24-2011	John Lackey	Matt Palmer	BOS	LAA	BOS	56.803	56.803	58.823	BOS	7	0	7
91	09-02-11	Derek Holland	Andrew Miller	TEX	BOS	BOS	56.427	56.427	51.779	TEX	10	0	10
92	06-25-2011	Tim Wakefield	Jeff Karstens	BOS	PIT	BOS	56.427	56.427	53.689	PIT	4	6	10
93	05-24-2011	Josh Beckett	Fausto Carmona	BOS	CLE	BOS	56.236	56.236	56.181	BOS	4	2	6
94	04-03-11	Clay Buchholz	Matt Harrison	BOS	TEX	BOS	55.947	55.947	47.209	TEX	1	5	6
95	05-15-2011	Jon Lester	Freddy Garcia	BOS	NYA	BOS	55.947	55.947	50.665	BOS	7	5	12
96	08-09-11	Erik Bedard	Francisco Liriano	BOS	MIN	BOS	55.85	55.85	53.634	BOS	4	3	7
97	06-17-2011	Shaun Marcum	John Lackey	MIL	BOS	BOS	55.752	55.752	65.056	BOS	4	10	14
98	04-08-11	Phil Hughes	John Lackey	NYA	BOS	BOS	55.556	55.556	52.551	BOS	6	9	15
99	04-18-2011	Ricky Romero	Daisuke Matsuzaka	TOR	BOS	BOS	55.457	55.457	50.222	BOS	1	9	10
100	06-05-11	Brett Anderson	John Lackey	OAK	BOS	BOS	55.257	55.257	43.713	BOS	3	6	9
101	04-26-2011	Clay Buchholz	Zach Britton	BOS	BAL	BOS	55.257	55.257	42.482	BAL	1	4	5
102	07-01-11	Tim Wakefield	Bud Norris	BOS	HOU	BOS	55.056	55.056	50.454	BOS	7	5	12
103	09-04-11	Matt Harrison	John Lackey	TEX	BOS	BOS	54.853	54.853	51.133	TEX	11	4	15
104	06-15-2011	Josh Beckett	Jeremy Hellickson	BOS	TB	BOS	54.853	54.853	55.223	BOS	3	0	3
105	07-18-2011	Tim Wakefield	Brad Bergesen	BOS	BAL	BOS	54.853	54.853	52.036	BOS	15	10	25
106	08-20-2011	Tim Wakefield	Felipe Paulino	BOS	KC	BOS	54.853	54.853	52.322	KC	4	9	13
107	06-26-2011	Andrew Miller	James McDonald	BOS	PIT	BOS	54.649	54.649	57.02	BOS	4	2	6
108	08-19-2011	Andrew Miller	Jeff Francis	BOS	KC	BOS	54.649	54.649	54.172	BOS	7	1	8
109	06-21-2011	Mat Latos	Afredo Aceves	SD	BOS	BOS	54.442	54.442	54.431	SD	5	4	9
110	08-08-11	Tim Wakefield	Scott Baker	BOS	MIN	BOS	54.233	54.233	43.508	BOS	8	6	14
111	06-07-11	Jon Lester	Freddy Garcia	BOS	NYA	BOS	54.023	54.023	48.548	BOS	6	4	10
112	05-11-11	John Lackey	Jesse Litsch	BOS	TOR	BOS	53.811	53.811	58.01	TOR	3	9	12
113	05-23-2011	Clay Buchholz	Justin Masterson	BOS	CLE	BOS	53.596	53.596	47.763	CLE	2	3	5
114	04-01-11	Jon Lester	C.J. Wilson	BOS	TEX	BOS	53.271	53.271	45.361	TEX	5	9	14
115	07-20-2011	Andrew Miller	Jake Arrieta	BOS	BAL	BOS	52.941	52.941	53.574	BOS	4	0	4
116	07-06-11	Ricky Romero	Tim Wakefield	TOR	BOS	BOS	52.494	52.494	53.171	BOS	4	6	10
117	05-29-2011	Clay Buchholz	Andrew Oliver	BOS	DET	BOS	52.381	52.381	52.182	BOS	4	3	7
118	05-30-2011	Jake Peavy	Jon Lester	CHA	BOS	BOS	52.381	52.381	64.077	CHA	7	3	10
119	09-14-2011	Ricky Romero	John Lackey	TOR	BOS	BOS	52.267	52.267	62.148	TOR	5	4	9
120	07-19-2011	Kyle Weiland	Jeremy Guthrie	BOS	BAL	BOS	51.574	51.574	49.847	BAL	2	6	8
121	09-15-2011	Jeremy Hellickson	Kyle Weiland	TB	BOS	BOS	51.456	51.456	59.831	TB	9	2	11
122	09-11-11	Jon Lester	James Shields	BOS	TB	BOS	51.338	51.338	55.649	TB	1	9	10
123	04-22-2011	Jon Lester	Dan Haren	BOS	LAA	BOS	51.1	51.1	52.563	BOS	4	3	7
124	06-19-2011	Yovanni Gallardo	Tim Wakefield	MIL	BOS	BOS	51.1	51.1	63.029	BOS	3	12	15
125	08-17-2011	David Price	John Lackey	TB	BOS	BOS	50.86	50.86	58.813	TB	4	0	4
126	08-24-2011	Josh Beckett	Matt Harrison	BOS	TEX	BOS	50.739	50.739	46.791	BOS	13	2	15
127	05-01-11	Felx Hernandez	Tim Wakefield	SEA	BOS	SEA	50	50	51.489	BOS	2	3	5
128	09-25-2011	Tim Wakefield	A.J. Burnett	BOS	NYA	NYA	50	50	39.578	NYA	2	6	8
129	09-09-11	John Lackey	Wade Davis	BOS	TB	TB	50.249	49.751	54.357	TB	2	7	9
130	07-29-2011	Tim Wakefield	Gavin Floyd	BOS	CHA	CHA	50.617	49.383	47.926	CHA	1	3	4
131	05-02-11	Jered Weaver	Clay Buchholz	LAA	BOS	LAA	50.739	49.261	50.074	BOS	5	9	14
132	09-07-11	Tim Wakefield	Brandon Morrow	BOS	TOR	TOR	50.86	49.14	48.552	TOR	10	11	21
133	04-20-2011	Clay Buchholz	Gio Gonzalez	BOS	OAK	OAK	50.98	49.02	39.623	BOS	5	3	8
134	04-23-2011	Daisuke Matsuzaka	Ervin Santana	BOS	LAA	LAA	51.574	48.426	50.418	BOS	5	0	5
135	04-02-11	John Lackey	Colby Lewis	BOS	TEX	TEX	51.691	48.309	47.297	TEX	5	12	17
136	05-27-2011	Tim Wakefield	Rick Porcello	BOS	DET	DET	52.267	47.733	48.888	BOS	6	3	9
137	04-10-11	C.C. Sabathia	Josh Beckett	NYA	BOS	NYA	52.494	47.506	39.597	BOS	0	4	4
138	04-19-2011	John Lackey	Brett Anderson	BOS	OAK	OAK	52.494	47.506	37.352	OAK	0	5	5
139	05-26-2011	Alfredo Aceves	Max Scherzer	BOS	DET	DET	52.494	47.506	46.11	BOS	14	1	15
140	06-11-11	John Lackey	Brandon Morrow	BOS	TOR	TOR	52.83	47.17	44.746	BOS	16	4	20
141	07-31-2011	Andrew Miller	Mark Buehrle	BOS	CHA	CHA	52.941	47.059	48.72	BOS	5	3	8
142	05-13-2011	Clay Buchholz	Bartolo Colon	BOS	NYA	NYA	53.162	46.838	42.207	BOS	5	4	9
143	06-16-2011	Clay Buchholz	David Price	BOS	TB	TB	53.162	46.838	42.89	BOS	4	2	6
144	06-30-2011	Jon Lester	Cole Hamels	BOS	PHI	PHI	53.811	46.189	40.244	BOS	5	2	7
145	06-14-2011	Tim Wakefield	James Shields	BOS	TB	TB	54.023	45.977	48.265	TB	0	4	4
146	06-28-2011	Josh Beckett	Cliff Lee	BOS	PHI	PHI	54.023	45.977	39.159	PHI	0	5	5
147	06-08-11	Tim Wakefield	A.J. Burnett	BOS	NYA	NYA	54.649	45.351	42.228	BOS	11	6	17
148	06-29-2011	John Lackey	Vance Worley	BOS	PHI	PHI	54.649	45.351	47.589	PHI	1	2	3
149	06-09-11	Josh Beckett	C.C. Sabathia	BOS	NYA	NYA	55.056	44.944	39.438	BOS	8	3	11
150	05-14-2011	Josh Beckett	C.C. Sabathia	BOS	NYA	NYA	55.257	44.743	36.818	BOS	6	0	6
151	09-08-11	Andrew Miller	Ricky Romero	BOS	TOR	TOR	55.556	44.444	50.094	TOR	4	7	11
152	08-22-2011	Erik Bedard	C.J. Wilson	BOS	TEX	TEX	56.803	43.197	43.596	TEX	0	4	4
153	07-16-2011	John Lackey	James Shields	BOS	TB	TB	57.356	42.644	48.987	BOS	9	5	14
154	09-18-2011	David Price	Tim Wakefield	TB	BOS	TB	57.627	42.373	52.67	TB	8	5	13
155	08-23-2011	John Lackey	Colby Lewis	BOS	TEX	TEX	57.983	42.017	47.608	BOS	11	5	16
156	07-15-2011	Andrew Miller	David Price	BOS	TB	TB	58.592	41.408	41.045	TB	6	9	15
157	08-06-11	C.C. Sabathia	John Lackey	NYA	BOS	NYA	58.763	41.237	44.583	BOS	4	10	14
158	09-10-11	Kyle Weiland	Jeremy Hellickson	BOS	TB	TB	58.763	41.237	50.75	TB	5	6	11
159	09-25-2011	John Lackey	Ivan Nova	BOS	NYA	NYA	58.848	41.152	39.937	BOS	7	4	11
160	08-30-2011	C.C. Sabathia	John Lackey	NYA	BOS	NYA	59.1	40.9	45.529	NYA	5	2	7
161	08-25-2011	Andrew Miller	Alexi Ogando	BOS	TEX	TEX	61.538	38.462	39.055	BOS	6	0	6
162	05-29-2011	Josh Beckett	Justin Verlander	BOS	DET	DET	62.264	37.736	51.585	DET	0	3	3