2011 Red Sox Community Projections: David Ortiz Surprises Everyone

by Ben Buchanan on Nov 15, 2011 3:27 PM EST in Community Projections

BALTIMORE, MD - SEPTEMBER 27: David Ortiz #34 of the Boston Red Sox waits to take batting practice before the start of the Red Sox game against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 27, 2011 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)

Remember how nice having some semblance of the old David Ortiz back for 2010 was? It was a pleasant surprise in an otherwise disappointing year, and seemed like it would help us ease into the end of David Ortiz' career compared to the rather jarring drops of 2008 and 2009. No, we didn't expect that Ortiz would continue to be the old Ortiz. Maybe he had another 2008 in store for us? Solid production, but not spectacular.

Yeah, to hell with that.

David Ortiz' 2011 was the real deal. Maybe it wasn't quite as ridiculous as 2005-2007, but this was near-prime Papi hitting balls all over the park with some regularity. Forget about ending his career, now the DH is looking at a multi-year contract!

It was fun to watch, but not exactly easy to predict, as you'll see:

Ortiz has already been removed from the Sox widget list, so check the first line for the actual figures.

Username	PA	RBI	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
David Ortiz	605	96	29	.309	.398	.554
RSNexile	640	105	30	.265	.365	.510
Theartolater	525	87	22	.255	.355	.490
Gizmosandy	530	93	23	.248	.330	.459
Brogshan	637	108	32	.265	.365	.517
OzTiger	465	66	17	.247	.326	.484
Witt-K	560	115	35	.245	.365	.550
Rogue Nine	585	86	28	.274	.368	.510
BoldandBrash	588	101	29	.265	.360	.505
Mattsullivan	535	91	34	.267	.374	.522
TheonlyJagsfaninSD	563	104	39	.297	.334	.515
Zachary Kolodin	611	85	28	.255	.360	.482
ThePanda	510	95	25	.260	.365	.500
Kraken613	590	90	24	.261	.345	.480
Flasoxfan	530	87	23	.271	.367	.512
Redsox15	512	92	27	.264	.359	.501
Sean O	495	87	27	.257	.362	.489
Magicbosox	500	87	24	.260	.345	.460
Tarrsk	560	88	28	.256	.355	.498
Alfredo	620	111	37	.278	.381	.556
Jason A	560	91	30	.262	.365	.510
Remembering9ergods	550	98	30	.267	.368	.523
Westcoastredsox	520	106	29	.260	.351	.520
Nuthinboutnuthin	566	104	30	.271	.369	.519
BobZupcic	594	92	29	.261	.359	.497
NJ Native	600	105	32	.282	.370	.525
Justin_Bobo	505	81	22	.275	.381	.482
GerryT	589	102	34	.275	.377	.524
Marcus v	593	120	32	.291	.380	.567
AlohaSox	575	98	35	.275	.380	.515
Steve Boyle	640	100	27	.255	.361	.477
Dustin's #1 Fan	560	102	26	.267	.345	.478
Pedro Werneck	550	81	26	.255	.355	.498
SteadyEddy87	520	82	24	.248	.315	.415
Ben Buchanan	580	94	30	.265	.355	.512
mmmmm	580	100	31	.265	.374	.510
Totheights	602	84	27	.272	.380	.550
Sologub	550	100	33	.249	.340	.540
Old Fan	470	65	18	.240	.320	.440
Andyfeeney	378	65	16	.219	.287	.398
Tdloisio	550	102	31	.268	.372	.504
Robertsstolesecond	575	105	27	.273	.387	.512
Birdhouse	548	87	27	.268	.356	.489
Royredd87	560	36	114	.282	.370	.535
Dsharp	518	95	24	.267	.358	.507
Travben85	555	98	30	.265	.371	.511
Schulz	575	110	28	.263	.357	.502
Lord Duggan	560	95	26	.260	.345	.490
Pi1166	440	87	24	.265	.355	.496
Boomtown87	541	109	31	.272	.339	.577
Marisa Ingemi	560	98	31	.267	.346	.500
QW	609	112	34	.279	.386	.531
Ganset	627	72	29	.245	.330	.515
Push	606	107	29	.265	.360	.550
Kgtruth345	591	113	33	.281	.399	.547
Drabidea	580	105	32	.264	.372	.520
HeyYoCraig	574	96	26	.266	.356	.500
Maineac	525	91	24	.249	.291	.490
Bheebs	575	120	40	.300	.362	.699
Buccaz	454	64	18	.264	.348	.489
Jgonzales19	650	115	40	.295	.413	.601

While you all were pretty accurate with Ortiz' homer numbers, what he did in the rest of the game was pretty far removed from expectations. That's a total of five near-misses in all the rate stats, only one coming from OBP and average as almost everyone shot terribly low.

Our winner for this round is pretty easy to select, as Push not only was one of the five, but was close on PA and hit dead-on with his 29 homers. Congratulations, Push, you win nothing at all!

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Comments

Huh, guess I didn't make a prediction for Papi.

I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.

by TheLoneDavid on Nov 15, 2011 3:29 PM EST reply actions

John Tomase

tweeted that Papi said the Sox will have an opportunity to match any offer he recieves in FA.

by aubatron2011 on Nov 15, 2011 4:07 PM EST reply actions

Way to go aub and Papi. He really does want to stay with the Sox.

He really does want to stay with the Sox and is speaking from the heart when he says “I’m loyal to you, will you be loyal to me?”

by GerryT on Nov 15, 2011 4:52 PM EST reply actions

of course if he gets a 3yr 36 million dollar offer

then…….

by BobZupcic on Nov 15, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

Sadly, I think it's a "when"... I feel like someone will make that offer to him.

Like… the Rangers?

I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.

Wait ’til next year!

by AlohaSox on Nov 21, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions

they won't do that

no one will give him three years close to that. Just look at what any other DH in the game is getting paid. That would be like the DH equivalent of the Werth contract

by wolf9309 on Nov 22, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions

3 yellows for me?

Wow! AB, HRs and SLG

Dumb luck. Hahaha

My Twitter @totheights

by totheights on Nov 15, 2011 5:59 PM EST reply actions

Well done!

I’ve always been a big Papi supporter and can’t believe I was that pessimistic!

LOL

NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.

by mmmmm on Nov 15, 2011 7:17 PM EST up reply actions

Who the @#$% is "Push"?

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven

by Bloggy on Nov 15, 2011 9:08 PM EST reply actions

Ben, you missed a yellow

Travben85 guessed Papi would get 30 home runs.

by TheLoneDavid on Nov 15, 2011 9:26 PM EST reply actions

I'd love to participate in this for next season.

Looks fun :D

"Remember, it's not over until the fat lady drops one."

by n0va on Nov 15, 2011 10:35 PM EST reply actions

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/345341/red-sox-have-made-offer-to-david-ortiz

by Florida Johnny on Nov 15, 2011 10:44 PM EST reply actions

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/345326/red-sox-gm-cherington-to-visit-cespedes

by Florida Johnny on Nov 15, 2011 10:45 PM EST reply actions

rf?

can he play right field? hows the arm?

by royredd87 on Nov 15, 2011 11:03 PM EST up reply actions

supposedly quite good

but almost no one has actually seen him beyond video. I doubt he starts the 2012 year in the majors, but he could well profile best for right, and is a right handed hitter with power. Depending on his actual skill set, he could be a perfect match.

by wolf9309 on Nov 16, 2011 12:11 AM EST up reply actions

He could also be another guy to juggle between Kalish and Reddick.

by TheLoneDavid on Nov 16, 2011 3:31 AM EST up reply actions

If I remember right I thought he looked great in the WBC. I’m hoping we get him to play right-field. We don’t have to guarantee that he starts but I’d definitely like to see him earn it.

I worry about it being too cold up in the Northeast for his mother and him though. And yeah he defected with his mother, so I mean how could you not want that guy on our team (at least I remember reading that somewhere..boy my memory is shot).

by Florida Johnny on Nov 16, 2011 3:38 AM EST up reply actions

And there's the

fact he might not be a FA for two more months.

by aubatron2011 on Nov 16, 2011 10:30 AM EST up reply actions

I mean, if we intend to get someone else to really shore up right field

like Beltran, I doubt that Cespedes really is of interest to the Sox. If we intend to give Reddick a shot as the starting right fielder, the Cespedes might be interesting, and the fact that he may not be a free agent for two months doesn’t really matter.

by wolf9309 on Nov 16, 2011 10:42 AM EST up reply actions

plus, really,

I’m sure it won’t be that long if there’s as much interest in him as it appears. He certainly won’t want to wait that long, the other players won’t want to have teams waiting that long to make decisions on the market, and the teams won’t want to all have to wait around for that long. Pretty sure MLB will let him be a FA much sooner.

by wolf9309 on Nov 16, 2011 10:44 AM EST up reply actions

I wasn't saying that it will drive teams

away, but it has to be in consideration is my point.

by aubatron2011 on Nov 16, 2011 11:16 AM EST up reply actions

Papi a no-brainer

The Sox should offer a 2 year deal at the 2011 ($12.5m ?) rate with an option for a 3rd in some way. They need him and he needs the Sox. There is minimal risk in this deal for the Sox.

by Scoop1981 on Nov 16, 2011 11:04 AM EST reply actions

he'll certainly be back

there’s absolutely no need to offer any sort of option for a third year (unless you mean a club option with no buyout), and there’s not a need to offer that much money- though who knows, maybe they will since he’s Papi.

by wolf9309 on Nov 16, 2011 11:41 AM EST up reply actions

Thinking about what the Yankees did for Jeter...

… not sure we wouldn’t go the same lengths for Big Papi.

I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.

Wait ’til next year!

by AlohaSox on Nov 21, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions

That's my suggestion...

$12.5 each for a 2 year deal, with a $10 million option for 2014 that vests with certain performance goals in 2012 & 2013, and has a $5 million buy out… so $30 million over two years to keep him in a Sox uniform until he retires, or $35 million for three years.

Something like that… I really think someone is going to offer him 3 years/$36 million, though.

I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.

Wait ’til next year!

by AlohaSox on Nov 21, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions