2011 Red Sox Community Projections: The Curious Season Of Adrian Gonzalez

BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 20: Adrian Gonzalez #28 of the Boston Red Sox coonects for a two-run home run in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park September 20, 2011 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

It's that time of year again, when we look back at our pre-season projections and think about just how crazy we were back in January, February, and March--back when everything looked so damn promising.

We'll start with the curious case of Adrian Gonzalez. By far the most exciting offensive force in the lineup before the year began, the new acquisition by all obejctive measurements had a terrific year. Strong defense and a top-5 bat at the position led to 6.6 WAR. It's hard to scoff at that.

And yet...there was something a bit off about it all. For whatever reason, at least to me and a good few others, Gonzalez' season just didn't seem to bring the sort of impact the numbers suggest. Maybe it was because of the power outages which left Gonzo with just 27 homers, mostly bunched together. Or, more likely, it  was because we all had such incredibly high expectations.

Are you ready for the most massive of community projections tables ever? Click through to see how you (and the rest here at OTM) did.


G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2011 - Adrian Gonzalez 159 715 108 213 45 3 27 117 74 119 1 0 .338 .410 .548

 

Name PA RBI HR AVG OBP SLG
BoldandBrash 690 115 39 .301 .402 .565
Marisa Ingemi 700 119 35 .285 .387 .602
Jason A 675 129 43 .308 .397 .580
Lloyd Christmas 720 110 40 .306 .395 .575
ThePanda 660 120 37 .310 .411 .590
Steve Boyle 690 110 37 .280 .374 .550
Sawxinpa 678 125 48 .297 .410 .590
Ben Buchanan 700 115 40 .300 .420 .600
Gnick55 660 120 38 .305 .412 .570
TheLoneDavid 660 120 38 .305 .412 .570
RSNexile 690 120 43 .310 .405 .570
Tarrsk 660 125 42 .295 .378 .575
Roredd87 642 136 44 .314 .392 .615
Sologub 625 128 43 .298 .400 .570
Justin_Bobo 685 112 36 .296 .395 .560
Nuthinboutnuthin 668 128 48 .302 .380 .630
Kraken613 668 135 45 .299 .390 .610
Sean O 650 115 30 .275 .355 .525
Totheights 680 120 42 .302 .388 .603
tommy.otm 680 140 37 .325 .400 .615
BobZupcic 675 116 40 .285 .366 .590
Gizmosandy 665 124 39 .293 .400 .590
Pedro Werneck 640 117 37 .296 .395 .577
B_Edelman 673 121 39 .304 .389 .573
Rogue Nine 675 132 51 .292 .417 .640
Redsoxmike 632 119 41 .301 .394 .555
OzTiger 695 130 52 .305 .415 .640
Flasoxfan 695 134 46 .316 .398 .639
Smooth Criminal 713 114 38 .295 .396 .589
Dsharp 640 128 43 .302 .402 .609
Andyfeeney 693 109 44 .289 .400 .577
HeyYoCraig 657 111 38 .296 .405 .534
MagicBoSox 700 119 46 .311 .400 .625
SuperDaveyBoy 675 121 37 .303 .392 .570
bdo3272 684 131 47 .306 .392 .633
Frederick0220 700 137 52 .310 .410 .650
Robertstolesecond 704 128 37 .315 .432 .604
Brogshan 698 116 41 .297 .394 .561
Birdhouse 694 131 43 .304 .429 .641
TheGreatMon 677 109 37 .291 .410 .565
Bheebs 662 104 39 .298 .433 .644
Koopz42 675 120 38 .304 .420 .670
Boomtown87 688 112 37 .311 .421 .619
CAMOJOE 692 120 34 .323 .424 .623
Pi1166 712 138 46 .321 .428 .628
Schulz 680 126 42 .297 .399 .595
Old Fan 676 107 36 .298 .390 .560
Kgtruth345 686 131 45 .307 .399 .600
Dave D 603 132 42 .313 .409 .619
The Burning Scheyer Jersey 665 103 35 .292 .397 .520
Dustin's #11 Fan 675 121 39 .285 .360 .510
Redsox604 684 111 42 .296 .420 .597
Synecdoche 696 121 45 .284 .394 .598
Mick Lowe 655 110 32 .302 .400 .543
Maineac 640 111 39 .291 .379 .532
drabidea 600 117 36 .289 .397 .535
Wolf9309 660 123 42 .310 .390 .595
The Laser Show 690 130 40 .290 .390 .570
NJ Native 645 117 44 .314 .421 .572
Mattsullivan 637 117 36 .315 .402 .535
AlohaSox 680 125 45 .310 .420 .560
Buccaz 651 127 41 .285 .389 .540
Travben85 665 120 41 .287 .394 .543
Conor Duffy 645 113 37 .294 .386 .535
Zachary Kolodin 710 117 38 .319 .421 .584
Dr. Dunkenstein 713 131 44 .307 .399 .597
Remembering9ergods 610 150 47 .323 .418 .570
mmmmm 676 140 41 .310 .408 .592
QW 671 131 47 .302 .399 .587
Zagz 672 129 44 .288 .413 .618
Ganset 652 106 38 .308 .390 .605
Lord Duggan 650 125 43 .290 .385 .590
Alfredo 620 115 37 .268 .360 .558
Theartolater 650 120 35 .290 .415 .540
A-N-G-I-S 645 123 41 .303 .403 .597
Westcoastredsox 650 128 45 .315 .405 .569
jgonzales19 699 125 42 .303 .401 .565
Average 671 122 41 .301 .400 .585

 

Nobody expected Gonzo to hit for average as well as he did, nor did they expect so few to leave the park. Only the miserly Sean O came close on his long ball total, and only a couple predictions came close on slugging.

All-in-all, I think it's those power numbers which really leave the disconnect between the general feeling around Gonzo's season and the reality. As much as we recognize that homers are hardly the only important part of the game, they still carry some major psychological weight, and while Gonzo exceeded our expectations in the average and OBP department, sometimes you just need the emotional punch the big flies pack.

It's hard to declare a winner since the best entries only have two, and none of those are exact hits. So if you have either two near-misses or one right on the dot, then consider yourself to be in that group.

(If I've missed something--which seems entirely likely given the sheer number here--let me know in the comments and I'll fix it.)

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