2011 Red Sox Community Projections: The Curious Season Of Adrian Gonzalez

by Ben Buchanan on Nov 14, 2011 1:17 PM EST in Community Projections

BOSTON, MA - SEPTEMBER 20: Adrian Gonzalez #28 of the Boston Red Sox coonects for a two-run home run in the third inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Fenway Park September 20, 2011 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

It's that time of year again, when we look back at our pre-season projections and think about just how crazy we were back in January, February, and March--back when everything looked so damn promising.

We'll start with the curious case of Adrian Gonzalez. By far the most exciting offensive force in the lineup before the year began, the new acquisition by all obejctive measurements had a terrific year. Strong defense and a top-5 bat at the position led to 6.6 WAR. It's hard to scoff at that.

And yet...there was something a bit off about it all. For whatever reason, at least to me and a good few others, Gonzalez' season just didn't seem to bring the sort of impact the numbers suggest. Maybe it was because of the power outages which left Gonzo with just 27 homers, mostly bunched together. Or, more likely, it was because we all had such incredibly high expectations.

Are you ready for the most massive of community projections tables ever? Click through to see how you (and the rest here at OTM) did.

	G	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2011 - Adrian Gonzalez	159	715	108	213	45	3	27	117	74	119	1	0	.338	.410	.548

Name	PA	RBI	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG
BoldandBrash	690	115	39	.301	.402	.565
Marisa Ingemi	700	119	35	.285	.387	.602
Jason A	675	129	43	.308	.397	.580
Lloyd Christmas	720	110	40	.306	.395	.575
ThePanda	660	120	37	.310	.411	.590
Steve Boyle	690	110	37	.280	.374	.550
Sawxinpa	678	125	48	.297	.410	.590
Ben Buchanan	700	115	40	.300	.420	.600
Gnick55	660	120	38	.305	.412	.570
TheLoneDavid	660	120	38	.305	.412	.570
RSNexile	690	120	43	.310	.405	.570
Tarrsk	660	125	42	.295	.378	.575
Roredd87	642	136	44	.314	.392	.615
Sologub	625	128	43	.298	.400	.570
Justin_Bobo	685	112	36	.296	.395	.560
Nuthinboutnuthin	668	128	48	.302	.380	.630
Kraken613	668	135	45	.299	.390	.610
Sean O	650	115	30	.275	.355	.525
Totheights	680	120	42	.302	.388	.603
tommy.otm	680	140	37	.325	.400	.615
BobZupcic	675	116	40	.285	.366	.590
Gizmosandy	665	124	39	.293	.400	.590
Pedro Werneck	640	*117*	37	.296	.395	.577
B_Edelman	673	121	39	.304	.389	.573
Rogue Nine	675	132	51	.292	.417	.640
Redsoxmike	632	119	41	.301	.394	.555
OzTiger	695	130	52	.305	.415	.640
Flasoxfan	695	134	46	.316	.398	.639
Smooth Criminal	713	114	38	.295	.396	.589
Dsharp	640	128	43	.302	.402	.609
Andyfeeney	693	109	44	.289	.400	.577
HeyYoCraig	657	111	38	.296	.405	.534
MagicBoSox	700	119	46	.311	.400	.625
SuperDaveyBoy	675	121	37	.303	.392	.570
bdo3272	684	131	47	.306	.392	.633
Frederick0220	700	137	52	.310	.410	.650
Robertstolesecond	704	128	37	.315	.432	.604
Brogshan	698	116	41	.297	.394	.561
Birdhouse	694	131	43	.304	.429	.641
TheGreatMon	677	109	37	.291	.410	.565
Bheebs	662	104	39	.298	.433	.644
Koopz42	675	120	38	.304	.420	.670
Boomtown87	688	112	37	.311	.421	.619
CAMOJOE	692	120	34	.323	.424	.623
Pi1166	712	138	46	.321	.428	.628
Schulz	680	126	42	.297	.399	.595
Old Fan	676	107	36	.298	.390	.560
Kgtruth345	686	131	45	.307	.399	.600
Dave D	603	132	42	.313	.409	.619
The Burning Scheyer Jersey	665	103	35	.292	.397	.520
Dustin's #11 Fan	675	121	39	.285	.360	.510
Redsox604	684	111	42	.296	.420	.597
Synecdoche	696	121	45	.284	.394	.598
Mick Lowe	655	110	32	.302	.400	.543
Maineac	640	111	39	.291	.379	.532
drabidea	600	*117*	36	.289	.397	.535
Wolf9309	660	123	42	.310	.390	.595
The Laser Show	690	130	40	.290	.390	.570
NJ Native	645	*117*	44	.314	.421	.572
Mattsullivan	637	*117*	36	.315	.402	.535
AlohaSox	680	125	45	.310	.420	.560
Buccaz	651	127	41	.285	.389	.540
Travben85	665	120	41	.287	.394	.543
Conor Duffy	645	113	37	.294	.386	.535
Zachary Kolodin	710	*117*	38	.319	.421	.584
Dr. Dunkenstein	713	131	44	.307	.399	.597
Remembering9ergods	610	150	47	.323	.418	.570
mmmmm	676	140	41	.310	.408	.592
QW	671	131	47	.302	.399	.587
Zagz	672	129	44	.288	.413	.618
Ganset	652	106	38	.308	.390	.605
Lord Duggan	650	125	43	.290	.385	.590
Alfredo	620	115	37	.268	.360	.558
Theartolater	650	120	35	.290	.415	.540
A-N-G-I-S	645	123	41	.303	.403	.597
Westcoastredsox	650	128	45	.315	.405	.569
jgonzales19	699	125	42	.303	.401	.565
Average	671	122	41	.301	.400	.585

Nobody expected Gonzo to hit for average as well as he did, nor did they expect so few to leave the park. Only the miserly Sean O came close on his long ball total, and only a couple predictions came close on slugging.

All-in-all, I think it's those power numbers which really leave the disconnect between the general feeling around Gonzo's season and the reality. As much as we recognize that homers are hardly the only important part of the game, they still carry some major psychological weight, and while Gonzo exceeded our expectations in the average and OBP department, sometimes you just need the emotional punch the big flies pack.

It's hard to declare a winner since the best entries only have two, and none of those are exact hits. So if you have either two near-misses or one right on the dot, then consider yourself to be in that group.

(If I've missed something--which seems entirely likely given the sheer number here--let me know in the comments and I'll fix it.)

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Comments

So many numbers...

Transcribing so dull…

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by Ben Buchanan on Nov 14, 2011 1:18 PM EST reply actions

Eyes bleeding yet? ;-)

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by Raj Ghetia on Nov 14, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions

yes

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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 14, 2011 1:45 PM EST up reply actions

The best part is...

….I don’t even read it.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

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by Bloggy on Nov 14, 2011 6:53 PM EST up reply actions

He basically said it was his shoulder.

For his weird season and lack of power numbers.

by aubatron2011 on Nov 14, 2011 1:37 PM EST reply actions

wow I did good!

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by Marisa Ingemi on Nov 14, 2011 1:44 PM EST reply actions

almost gone

excuses excuses excuses

by Chetdee1 on Nov 14, 2011 1:47 PM EST reply actions

Better than average

Gonzalez bettered his 162 game averages in all catagories last season over his first 8 seasons (I know fewer plate appearances in the first three) except for home runs. 4 fewer home runs but 8 more doubles. His BA was 45 points higher, his OBP was up by 35 points, slugging was up 38 points, and OPS was up 68 points… curious, but very very good. Maybe it’s Fenway.

by jbrady29 on Nov 14, 2011 2:41 PM EST reply actions

Fully expecting the AVG to come way down and the HR to go up

I think I’ll just leave my prediction for 2012!

by BobZupcic on Nov 14, 2011 4:44 PM EST reply actions

The RBI differential

Although a fair share of us (not me) did nail his RBI total fairly close I can’t help but blame for his failure to meet higher expectations there on:

(a) his lower HR output – probably decreased his RBI total by around 10-15 and

(b) Crawford’s miserable start – when he was still in front of Gonzo for a fair share of PAs. Any sort of decent OBP by CC to start the year probably could have added another 10 RBIs to Gonzo’s total.

So that’s my rationalization for the difference between my prediction (140) and Gonzo’s actual (117) RBI total. :-D

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by mmmmm on Nov 14, 2011 5:19 PM EST reply actions

I'm pretty impressed with how many 117s there are

There are ZERO 116s, and zero 118s. What was so mesmerizing about 117?

by Sologub on Nov 14, 2011 8:12 PM EST reply actions

There are two who guessed 116

BobZupcic and Brogshan.

by Fromalabama on Nov 14, 2011 8:18 PM EST up reply actions

Guess I should've used Ctrl+F

by Sologub on Nov 14, 2011 8:54 PM EST up reply actions

Sorry.

It’s kind of compulsive. I wasn’t trying to be a jerk.

by Fromalabama on Nov 14, 2011 11:02 PM EST up reply actions

There is no being a jerk in helping to provide the full truth

by Florida Johnny on Nov 15, 2011 2:41 AM EST up reply actions

Holy crap

Also, am I miserly because I was laid off for 3 months and wasn’t spending money? My condo is really friggin’ nice, so I don’t live in a hole.

by Sean O on Nov 14, 2011 8:29 PM EST reply actions

Probably your lowball estimates

A .355 OBP for Gonzo…still better than Teix ended up with.

by Sologub on Nov 14, 2011 8:55 PM EST up reply actions

I was considering that, just felt a little off

I truly believed that Gonzo would have a difficult transition and certainly be good, but not the monster he turned out to be for much of the year.

by Sean O on Nov 14, 2011 8:56 PM EST up reply actions

I nominate MattSullivan as winner

In my view, he came closer than anyone else on the whole:

.315/.402/.535, 36 HR, 117 RBI.

I would say Mick Lowe is the runner-up: .302/.400/.543, 32 HR, 110 RBI.

by Zachary Kolodin on Nov 15, 2011 1:32 PM EST reply actions

Sheesh... apparently, I wasn't good at this game.

So far, I’ve seen the projections recap for Crawford, Big Papi and Gonzo… and I got a whopping ONE yellow between the three of them (Big Papi’s RBI total…)

Did I miss any recaps? C’mon, I’ve got to have more than one yellow in this game…

I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.

Wait ’til next year!

by AlohaSox on Nov 21, 2011 3:42 PM EST reply actions