Gauging Red Sox Nation's Interest: Grady Sizemore
by Ben Buchanan on Nov 1, 2011 12:57 PM EDT
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PrintPerhaps the most interesting question mark for the Red Sox this year is the situation in right field. A source of frustration for Sox fans for almost the entirety of 2011, only a short burst of greatness from Josh Reddick saved the Red Sox from being the bottom of the AL barrel at the position.
Now, we're seeing the first signs of where the Red Sox may turn to fix the situation. Earlier today Michael Silverman reported that, with the Indians having declined their team option, the Red Sox may be interested in outfielder and frequent disabled list resident Grady Sizemore.
The pros and cons of Sizemore are fairly obvious. When he's healthy, Sizemore has proven to be an All-Star quality player, capable of patrolling Fenway's spacious right field while providing a strong bat to the lineup (albeit one that would likely have slotted in around sixth in the lineup last year). But a healthy Sizemore is about as likely as a healthy Jed Lowrie--he's played just 210 games in the last three years, and has been largely ineffective over the last two.
The Sox are no strangers to what this sort of deal would likely entail. Short, cheap, and likely incentive-laden, Sizemore's contract would resemble either an Adrian Beltre or a Bartolo Colon--which is referenced come next November will likely be determined by how well Sizemore performs. It's low risk and high reward, which is a fundementally sound strategy, and likely attractive to a new GM like Ben Cherington who would rather not open his career with a big-ticket bust like a Carlos Beltran could be.
Moreover, the Sox are in a situation which is uniquely suited to a Sizemore type of signing. If he goes down or proves ineffective, it gives them a shot to give Kalish and Reddick some run to see if either of them will prove the answer.
On the other hand, Sizemore doesn't pose a long-term solution, and if you don't believe in Reddick or Kalish, then it could seem like too much of a risky stopgap. The Sox will need to find a consistent right fielder sooner-or-later, and delaying could leave them in bad shape both on the field and from a bargaining standpoint before too long.
So, Over The Monster readers, how would you feel about a possible Grady Sizemore signing?
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If the price is right
Absolutely. Platoon him in right with Reddick, and he can spell EllsFord at the other two outfield spots. And if he gets hurt, they don’t put themselves in a position where they were relying on him.
by The Burning Scheyer Jersey on Nov 1, 2011 1:23 PM EDT reply actions
Why platoon?
He’s a left-handed hitter.
by The Name is Dalton on Nov 1, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
I was under the impression Sizemore was a switch-hitter?
by The Burning Scheyer Jersey on Nov 1, 2011 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Whelp
Scratch that whole platoon thing then. Still think he could be valuable off the bench.
by The Burning Scheyer Jersey on Nov 1, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Just what we need another guy who cannot stay healthy
the fact he is left handed is an added bonus
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
I was interested in this until Wolf reminded me he was another LHH.
Still… if it’s a Beltre style deal, the defense he offers when healthy could be a thing of beauty in Fenway’s RF… for the right price, why not?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Reddick already provides pretty decent defense out there.
I think that if we grab an outfielder, we have to grab a right-handed bat or a switch-hitter.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
I'm amazed at Red Sox fans ignorance this year
I’ve seen so much stupidity written, here are my favorite examples, not all from this site:
-Bring back Tek
-Bring back Wakefield
-Go get Darvish
-Bring back Miller
-Sign Sizemore
Terrible shit. Some have learned nothing. This team needs to get younger, healthier, smarter. None of the ideas above contribute to that.
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
by gizmosandy on Nov 1, 2011 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I won't disagree, but you realize that the obvious come-back to that is
please post your OWN ideas ….
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
I will just respond to the ones I was critical of
-Don’t even think about bringing back Tek, Lavarnway/Salty or Shoppach/Salty Shop vs. LHP
-Wakefield is done, there will be a younger cheaper alternative out there in FA, or use Weiland/Tazawa/Doubront in this slot. You will not convince me they will not beat whatever Wake would offer at this point.
-Darvish is a terrible idea, DiceK should have closed the book on that. You cannot go overpay for a Japanese league player and then change crucial things that lead to their success overseas. This team should try to make a deal for an excellent young starting pitcher. It’s impossible to suggest who, without knowing who is available.
-Miller is what he is, a guy who has no control, and will never live up to any potential he had.
-Sizmore canot stay healthy and is left handed, not worth the 5 mill or so he will cost.
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
Re: Sizemore...
On the other hand, we’d have someone we can use all those old Ellsbury insults on. (j/k)
Tampa Bay Rays Championships: Still Zero
"Playoffs?!? Don't talk about playoffs! Are you kidding me? I just hope we can win a game!"
- Jim Mora, seeing through space and time to describe the 2011 Boston Red Sox
by nuthinboutnuthin on Nov 1, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with most of what you're saying, gizmo
But the whole, “Dice-K didn’t work, so Darvish wouldn’t either” is really faulty logic. First, Dice-K wasn’t that bad for us, and Darvish (1) is a significantly better player, (2) is younger, and (3) has way fewer innings on his arm than Dice-K did when he came over.
People have somehow gotten the perception that importing Japanese players is bad because of a few high-profile flops. But overall, Japanese players who come to the MLB are quite successful.
Further, your argument that we should be dealing for an “excellent young starting pitcher” is pretty wild. Do you realize how much trading for an excellent young starting pitcher costs in terms of prospects? Say goodbye to Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Doubront, Iglesias, and others. Basically, considering how the Gonzo trade thinned our system, say goodbye to any minor leaguer who matters.
Again, I agree with most of your argument, but you’re just way, way off there.
Also
If an excellent young starting pitcher DOES go on the market, there are many teams with better prospects to outbid us for him.
impossible to say
that is just your opinion and speculation
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
So
are you just bias against Japanese players or you have some evidence that Darvish and Dice-K are even remotely the same pitcher/athlete? outside of them both playing in Japan.
Darvish is 25. He is not typical Japanese, he is half Iranian/japanese and grew up in the US/Korea. Heck his father worked and lived in Boston for over a decade.
It's not a racial argument
The argument is that the game is literally played differently. The baseball is different.
exactly
when you attempt to change it fails
The 2011 Over the Monster Gedman League Fantasy Baseball Champion
Eh, pitchers from Japan can and have succeeded
But not to the degree of success they had in Japan. Colby Lewis and Kuroda two examples.
It’s why Darvish isn’t going to get a Sabathia-sized contract, which is what he would get if he did what he had done the past few season in MLB instead of Japan.
He’s going to get more than Jackson and Buehrle but less than Wilson. I don’t think he’s as big of a risk as some say, but he could still be out of our price range.
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 1, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Exactly. Your first two lines could just have easily been written as:
Eh, pitchers from the NCAA can and have succeeded.
But not to the degree of success they had in college.
Or insert ‘the minor leagues’ or ‘Cuba’ or whatever.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
At this point
I am. There is no way to put a certainty on them succeeding here. It’s not who they are, where their father or mother were born. It’s that they played in the Japanese leagues and we want them to play in ours. They are two separate entities, and they do things differently. The routines, the schedule.
For every Nomo, Kuroda or Saito, there is a Dice-K, Igawa or Irabu who had big posting fees and contracts who just never really worked the way they were supposed to based on their superior Japanese league performance.
It’s so erratic that it doesn’t matter to me how much better Darvish is supposed to be than Dice, he too could just never make the transition and I don’t want to bet the millions of dollars on whether he will or not. Not worth the investment I think.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Aren't pitchers a crap shoot no matter where they come from?
Seriously – somebody needs to show some numbers to back up any assertions that Japanese system players fail/succeed at any notably different rates than players souced from other leagues (NCAA, Minors, Latin ball, etc.).
Otherwise this discussion all amounts to unsupported assertions.
And what about position players? Ichiro and a few others seem to have done okay. Others not so much. But isn’t that the same for the general wave of MLB wannabes coming up from any system?
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
They are a crap shoot
But they are far, far, far cheaper to deal with when they fail. We aren’t drafting Darvish and developing him in our system. We’re buying him, signing him to a contract and tossing him into the pros on arrival without any development. How many players are signed into MLB and then promoted directly to the majors? Not many at all.
Japanese players aren’t comparable to prospects because of that. It’s a free agency deal essentially, and more often than not free agents are can be relied upon to provide similar numbers to what they’ve put up in their careers. There is no way to know how Japanese league numbers translate to MLB and that is the problem.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
show me the numbers
a) draft a kid out of H.S for cheap, then spend $X dollars to develop him for 4 years before he’s possibly ready for the the MLB roster. What % succeed or fail? At what cost profile?
b) draft a kid out of College for not as cheap, then spend $Y dollars to develop for 2 years before he’s possibly ready for the the MLB roster. What % succeed or fail? At what cost profile?
c) snag a kid from Cuba for still more $$, then spend $Z dollars to develop him for 2-4 years before he’s possibly ready for the the MLB roster. What % succeed or fail? At what cost profile?
d) pay the posting fee for a kid out of Japan for even more $$$, then spend $? dollars for … ? years before he’s possibly ready for the the MLB roster. What % succeed or fail? At what cost profile?
d) pay $$$$$$$ for a veteran MLB FA. Put him on the roster. What % succeed or fail? At what cost profile?
Unless we actually have numbers for these scenarios to compare with, all we can do is spew subjective impressions based on anecdotal evidence.
Key point though – there is a cost associated with having to do years of minor-league development. It’s debatable whether a veteran Japanese star is more or less ready for MLB, but in theory the higher posting fee is simply replacing some of that cost.
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
then what are your ideas?
You’ve killed 5 ideas… and I am not saying that you are wrong or that I would disagree…. actually I agree onall, except I’d keep Miller – he needs a better pitching coach and less chicken influence…
that being said I’d be curious to see your thoughts….
Me personally I’d drop Papi like a cheap date, put the soon to be cripple Youk in as DH and pick up a new 3B (if one exists) or use papi money on Paps…..
pick up 3-4 more good cheaper arms in the rotation because we all know that we’ll never make a season with any starting 5 and more is better
thats my initial input.. not much but enough to keep me interested… especially since the NBA players have decided they want more $$
If I understand your last sentence correctly.
Prospects, there is no way anyone could predict injuries but lets go ahead and blame Free Agency, John Lackey, Carl Crawford, Lugo and Renteria for that as well, moneyball, prospects and moneyball. Did I miss anything? Moving to the opposite extreme will not solve the problems, all you will get is the Oakland A’s. Its like you went to Vegas, gambled and lost but now you are never going to bet again.
I dont have a major problem with signing Darvish, if his price is fairly market reasonable. Darvish is not Dice-K. The kid is 6’5" to begin with. Btw explain how Yu Darvish does not fit into your 3 prong philosophy? When was Darvish injured? He is 25 and is the only top arm out there who’s name is not CJ Wilson (who is going to be signed in a week with CC gone)? I would just like to know where you get your information that Darvish is not a good player or not worth the money? Let me guess? Dice-K.
Also dont have a problem with signing Sizemore as a DH/OF option, but again for cheap.
None of my ideas are on that list
I feel all warm and fuzzy inside
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.
He would be an interesting signing
And one that would signal to me they might be ready to deal Reddick. If Sizemore stays healthy (lol?) and plays well, then bonus. If not, they hope Kalish can be called up or they sign a fourth OF’er that can Sizemore’s place when/if he gets hurt.
Being in the big RF of Fenway is good and bad for him, I think. If healthy he has the ability to cover the ground. But with ankle sprains, injured groins, knee injuries (both knees), and two sports hernias…I would think the extra mileage on his legs would want to be avoided. If they plan on dealing Reddick and picking up a similar guy for a RH at-bat (a reclamation project, etc) that is capable then it makes more sense. But as is, with a fully LH’ed outfield as is?
by The Name is Dalton on Nov 1, 2011 1:46 PM EDT reply actions
Another lefthanded outfielder?
The Sox don’t need another left-handed outfielder.
RHB for RF seems overblown.
The Sox mash lefties. PD , Gonzo, Youk, Papi, Scoot, Lava, Lowrie, Aviles Tek, Linares all mash lefties. Ells,’ Reddick, Kalish hold their own. I don’t see RF as a problem to be solved. Reddick has shown he will be at least average and has the most experience in Fenway’s RF. Kalish looks to be better than average, maybe special. Why block him? Linares may have a huge bat and is a sold defender. Why take the RHB out of hand? IMO the Sox are fine in RF with the kids. I can’t see Cleveland not giving him the best incentivized offer, but what are chances he will return better than Kalish and Linares.
We're likely talking about just 2012 though
And considering both Linares and Kalish missed large portions of the year due to injuries, I would imagine the Sox would prefer having a plan that would enable both to start in the minors until they can regain their forms.
Sizemore would do that and not really block Kalish or Linares.
In fact, you pretty much have to assume Sizemore will get hurt at some point during the season, possibly at multiple points, which would allow the Sox to call up Kalish/Linares to take his place.
Giving a $5 million plus incentives deal to Sizemore is a minimal risk with an okay reward. He regularly put up 6-8 WAR seasons when he was healthy, a peak I doubt Kalish/Reddick/Linares will ever put up. Of course he’s not going to do that in 2012, but there’s definitely potential for SOME reward there if you’re willing to make a small monetary investment. It’s at least something to consider, especially if you don’t believe in Reddick and want an alternative.
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 1, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I was going to post about this earlier
after the Indians declined his option. Mostly because seasons like 08’ are still pretty fresh in my mind. This guy was on his way to becoming a superstar— there is no way an incentive-laden deal could hurt.
It seems as if the Sox have lost a bit of confidence in Reddick and Kalish was a wreck all year. I’m not suggesting the Sox fill out the opening day lineup with Sizemore slotted in RF, but he has a chance to bring much more value than either Reddick or Kalish. Suggesting that he would bring less than Linares is just asinine. Are we forgetting that the guy is 26 and missed all of last season? Oh, by the way, he has all of 128 plate appearances in the minors.
I think people really need to get off the idea of acquiring a young SP. With the way the market is, its just not going to happen. Our farm system is barren as it is. What we’re going to see, most likely, is a lot of incentive laden, low risk/high reward projects—a la John Smoltz, Brad Penny, etc. And honestly, i’m OK with that…throw enough shit at the wall and hope some of it sticks. Look at Colon and Garcia.
No on Sizemore
I would rather the Sox bring in Cuddyer than Sizemore. Sure Cuddyer will cost more money, a lot more, but we are talking about the Red Sox here, not the Pirates. With Drew gone they can afford the 2-3 year deal to bring in a solid veteran like Cuddyer. On most teams not named the Red Sox or Yankees, the team would open RF up to Reddick/Kalish competition, and they may do that, but if they have serious questions about Reddick/Kalish, expect them to make a try for Cuddyer. With Youk a bit of a question mark, the Sox don’t need another lefty hitter, and one that can’t stay on the field
I like Cuddyer, but not his price
A lefty righty platoon of Reddick/Kalish and a guy like Reed Johnson would suffice for me.
This would be absolutely stupid
He can’t stay healthy. He’s only played 104 games over the last two seasons. Almost all of the Sox $ money this off-season should be invested in pitching, pitching and more pitching.
Oh what a lovely idea!
Let’s be the Angels and collect as many centerfielders (present and former) as we can…
Monster carcass in Fens this morning, bat splinters on burst stuffing. This team is afraid of me. I have seen its true face. The players are inveterate quitters and the pitchers are full of fail, and when the playoffs are within reach, they will all choke. The accumulated filth of all their beer and clubhouse rivalries will foam up about their waists, and all the fat Texans and horrid relievers will look up and shout, "Save us!"... and I'll look down and whisper, "NO."
+1
Sox should pass on him – even if he goes to another team and bounces back – he is not a fit for the Sox
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
frankly, I'd be just fine with the idea
but it would need to be cheap. I’d be OK with it because, if we improve our rotation enough, I’d be fine with Reddick being our starting right fielder. If Sizemore comes cheap enough in addition, sure, pop him in and see if he plays amazingly and stays healthy.
I find it almost completely implausible that someone else won’t have a greater need for him and offer a bigger contract. Most likely, I’d say he goes to a team that has a low probability of contending, with the intent to flip him if he succeeds. Sizemore isn’t really the same thing as Beltre, because Beltre has actually been quite healthy most of his career.
Corner the market
If we get every left handed OF we’ll have the rest of the league at our beck & call.
We don’t need a Jed Lowrie in the OF.
simul justus et peccator
Starting pitching and bullpen pitching
Please? The Sox do not need any more of these types of players (maybe they’ll pay off but if they don’t it is only five/ten/fifteen million). I thought that this experiment was proven to be a failure two years ago. Grabbing a bunch of injury prone players or players that pitched well against the team the year before is not a long term solution unless team management really wants a fourth place finish next year. The Sox have three starters next year…not six..not five…three. Every cent should be devoted to getting the starters up to the level of a playoff ready team. The Sox can hit with it’s present lineup and it’s defense is on a playoff level. It’s the pitching, the pitching, the pitching.
by papoonforpresident on Nov 1, 2011 8:17 PM EDT reply actions
yesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyesyes
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nononononononononono
nononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononononono
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 1, 2011 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
maybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybe
maybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybemaybeperhaps?
Tampa Bay Rays Championships: Still Zero
"Playoffs?!? Don't talk about playoffs! Are you kidding me? I just hope we can win a game!"
- Jim Mora, seeing through space and time to describe the 2011 Boston Red Sox
by nuthinboutnuthin on Nov 1, 2011 9:17 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
perhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhaps
perhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhapsperhaps
by Anthony Emerson on Nov 1, 2011 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions
fortherightpricefortherightpricefortherightpricefortherightpricefortherightprice
fortherightpricefortherightpricefortherightpricefortherightpricefortherightpricefortherightpricefortherightprice
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 1, 2011 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
rec'drec'drec'drec'drec'drec'drec'drec'drec'drec'drec'drec'drec'drec'drec'd
rec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’drec’d
Ha ha ha ha ha!
Totally rec’d.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
x
http://wtfcontent.com/img/130207769463.jpg
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Settle down, Sandy.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
His knees are shot
Its a bone on bone thing. He can’t play 150 games. I don’t even know if he’ll last 75 games. At the right price, he’s well worth the risk and if Ortiz leaves you can manage his playing time to keep him healthier.
I don’t think he’s going to be cheap enough for my tastes, though… So I’d prefer we pass and sign a RHH OF.
I’d check in on this if I were Ben Cherington, but I just don’t think there will be a fit here. Someone else will need him more and pay him.
Agreed, but RF is an open position now
Its not really about offensive prodction, although more is better, but about who to fill an open slot. And its not like the Sox can’t and won’t address both RF and certainly pitching.
On the subject of pitching, I see the Sox sigining a mid-tier FA like Harden and then signing a number of projects to fill the 5th spot. With two open spots, the Sox should get a lot of interest from FA pitchers.
I say ouch
To having Rich Harden projected as our #4 starter. Just ouch.
by The Name is Dalton on Nov 2, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
which can be filled fairly cheaply
with a Reddick/Cody Ross platoon or Kalish/Ross platoon. Money can then be sent toward the PITCHING!
I like the Ross platoon idea a lot, depending on cost
he made $6.3 million in arbitration last year and had a down year. Does someone give him $5 million next year? I’m not sure he’s worth that. I guess probably depends on whether anyone sees him as an everyday guy rather than a platoon guy. If that’s the price, I’d rather pursue someone who is a genuine platoon player, like Gomes or Andruw Jones (yeah either scares the hell out of me on defense, but I’d be hoping that one of our young guys could work their way into a closer to full time situation over the course of the year) who would only cost a couple million.
DH?
Chad Finn brought that up on his blog. I thought it interesting. He’s less likely to get hurt, and can play outfield in case of injuries. It would mean the end of the Ortiz era, but he may be considerably cheaper than David.
simul justus et peccator
and considerably worse than Ortiz
plus, he wants a one year contract to re-establish value, he’s not gonna take one to DH.
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
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