Matt Kory: Like, Totally The (Fake) Armchair GM
by Matthew Kory on Nov 1, 2011 7:00 AM EDT
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We here at OTM aren't necessarily of one voice. Sure, we agree on lots of stuff (cats are awesome, souffle is yummy, nothing in the world is worse than wet socks) but we aren't of one mind on everything. It is in that spirit that we offer you, the astute reader, a collection of different essays wherein different writers sketch out their off season plans. We call it Armchair GM. Marc Normandin's effort, the first of the series, can be found here. My effort is below. Enjoy!
* * *
With the 2011 Red Sox safely in the rear view mirror like Tim Bogar after waiving David Ortiz around third towards certain doom, it's time to out line a plan for success in 2012. Here's what I'm thinking.
Coaching Staff
As GM, my first job is to find a steadying force in the dugout, one who can work to foster a fun environment, set and maintain order, and will make the least painful and bone-headed in-game moves possible. I probably won't be on this job long and I'd rather not die of an anger-induced brain explosion during that time. ("No! NO! Don't bunt here *BOOM* Blleaaarg...") It doesn't hurt if he has experience working in a big market and with big egos. That could describe a number of candidates, but I think it fits Pete Mackanin best. He's my guy. Also, I set BIll James and some engineers to work on a device I can hook up to Mackanin during the game which delivers electric shocks anytime he thinks about bunting. Hopefully that can be complete by opening day.
Options
We can't address anything until we know what the team's finances are. According to Cot's, the 2012 Red Sox have already committed $132 million to player payroll. That figure includes Marco Scutaro's $6 million option which was picked up on Sunday. The last two seasons the Red Sox have had a payroll around $165 million, so it's unlikely ownership wants to go well beyond that. As such, I'll try to stay within that range.
Since I took over the job yesterday, I've had some trouble locating the rest rooms. Thank God for buckets! Fortunately, much of the options-related work was completed just before I moved my antique abacus collection into my office, when the Sox declined options on Scott Atchison and Dan Wheeler. Neither player is likely to make or break the Sox season so I'm not particularly broken up about this. I'd consider bringing Wheeler back if 1) he signs for around a million or so, and 2) Mackanin's machine can be programmed to shock him for each lefty Wheeler faces.
As for Andrew Miller, if last year proved anything it is that you can't have too much pitching depth. That said, right now Miller just isn't a major league pitcher. If he can be stashed at Pawtucket, he's absolutely worth bringing back. If not, as the great American Weird Al Yankovic says in his hit song, Smells Like Nirvana, "Sayonara, sayonawa, ayonawa, hodinawa, yada yaday, ayeee haaaaaa." In other words, buh-bye.
Red Sox Free Agents
First, we bid adieu to Tim Wakefield. Thanks for your many years of service, old friend, but it's time to move on.
I may be in my own boat on this one, and that boat may be very small, in the middle of a wide ocean, have a hole in it and be surrounded by giant blood-craving sea-slugs, but I want David Ortiz back on the Red Sox and I'm willing to pay for it. Ortiz is both an extremely productive hitter and a Boston icon. The second is a bit nebulous and I don't want to pay for that, but at the same time I'm cognizant that the Red Sox would lose credibility if Ortiz donned another team's uniform. After last year's collapse, I don't want that to happen. I also don't want you, the reader, to think team credibility is the only reason I'm bringing Ortiz back. Heck no. Dude can mash. By wRC+ Ortiz was the tenth most productive hitter in all of baseball last season. That's not just DHs, not just in the AL, in all of baseball. But if that measurement is a whole bunch of hocus-pocus to ya, then maybe the more standard OPS will sell you. Ortiz finished eighth in OPS, again, in all of baseball. Dude can hit and the Red Sox need him in the middle of the lineup. It's probably also worth pointing out that, with all the injuries the Sox suffered, Ortiz wasn't one of them. Hopefully when the dust settles, Ortiz can be wooed back by a two year deal at around $20 million. I'd be willing to include a vesting option for a third year, though that isn't where I'd start the bidding.
If Jonathan Papelbon is reasonable, I'm more than happy to bring him back as closer. Reasonable would be no higher than three years and $36 million. $12 million is probably too much to pay, but as GM of the Red Sox, I can afford to pay a bit extra for some extravagance here and there, and this qualifies. Mariano Rivera makes $15 million a season and no other reliever is set to make more than $12 million next year, so the hope is that by waiting him out Paps can be had for around $10 million a season but if the other offers are there, I'll go as high as $12 million per. (An addendum: If I can't resign Papelbon then my next target is Ryan Madson from the Phillies. Hopefully a two year deal for about $15-16 million gets it done. Madson's K rates are excellent and he can go after lefties and righties with equal success.)
When writing this yesterday I concocted a secret deal, one which I was quite proud of. I was going to trade for Derek Lowe. He wouldn't cost much, I reasoned, as the Braves have been trying to rid themselves of him since virtually the day they signed him, and Lowe throws lots and lots of innings. Advanced metrics (FIP) still think he's a good pitcher, and apparently so do the Cleveland Indians, who stole my idea out from under me. So, with my first plan now unavailable, I first call Chris Antonetti's office and leave a profanity laced message on his answering machine. Then, I get on the horn to Erik Bedard's agent, who I assume is either Wayne Gretzky or Gérard Depardieu, and re-sign him on a one year deal for about $3 million or so with incentives. Then I go poop on Antonetti's lawn.
Free Agents
With Sabathia now back in the Yankees fold (and how much money did he leave on the table? Wow!), none of the other free agent pitchers interest me. Which is a problem because the Red Sox need pitching. But really, C.J. Wilson? Someone is going to get stuck paying way too much for that guy and it ain't gonna be me. Same with Edwin Jackson who could get better and justify the long term deal he's likely to land, but do you really want to bet $40-50 million on that? I sure don't. Hiroki Kuroda has a fear of the east coast and Mark Buehrle is too hard to spell. That leaves Yu Darvish. Darvish has and will continue to be compared to Daisuke Matsuzaka, as both are famous Japanese pitchers, and both will enter the Majors through the posting process. There are certainly similarities, yes, but there are differences. Paint with too broad a brush and you will miss the details, Danielson. Darvish is younger and has been better than Matsuzaka was in Japan. Also, if there is any team that is capable and prepared to deal with another star Japanese pitcher, it is the Red Sox. Darvish is my man. I'd replicate the Matsuzaka deal almost exactly, but updated a bit. I'd put down $61.1112 million for the posting fee and sign him to a six year, $60 million deal.
Then I go poop in Antonetti's mail box.
The hunt for an exciting free agent right fielder isn't happening this year. Which is just as well because the Red Sox have two nice in-house candidates for the job in Ryan Kalish and Josh Reddick. Neither is without their problems, but both project to be around league average, which for our purposes now is good enough because both will be playing for essentially nothing. However, as both are left handed, and the the one without health concerns has shown somewhat of a platoon split, it might be wise to bring in a right handed hitting outfielder who can compliment their skill sets. Enter Andruw Jones, formerly of the Yankees. Jones isn't the guy who was all-world in Atlanta a decade ago, but he has three things going for him. He's cheap, he crushes left handed pitching, and he's a decent enough fielder that putting him in right field at Fenway part time wouldn't be too much of an adventure. The Yankees paid him $2 million last year. Let's make it $2.5 and free juices from the Fenway vending machines.
Trades
I explored the possibility of trading Jacoby Ellsbury for Matt Kemp. Kemp is a year younger, walks more, has a longer history of hitting for power (i.e. there is a smaller chance his power will disappear), and Kemp's agent is Dave Stewart, who is more amenable to a contract extension than Ellsbury's agent, Scott Boras. Also as a right handed hitter, Kemp might be a better fit in the Red Sox lineup. The reason I'm opting against are two. One, Ellsbury is, I have come to believe, a better defensive player, and two, and most importantly, Ellsbury has two seasons left under team control while Kemp has only one. I mention it because even though I'm not advocating for it, I still find the idea interesting.
The Finished Product
I wish the end result was more exciting. I looked at potentially obtaining John Danks and/or Hanley Ramirez, but Three Big F's kept me away: Finances, Fear and Frogs. Danks is an intriguing pitcher, but, like a frog, not without his warts. The cost to obtain him is likely much higher than the difference in performance between he and Bedard. (Should Bedard's price go way up though, I'd reconsider going after Danks.) Ramirez is a big name with an attachment to Boston, but he's coming off an awful year and is due $46.5 million over the next three years. If he can't hit, he can't play, and though the possibility of buying low is exciting, the risk is simply too high. Scutaro was a better hitter last season and it wasn't close.
The entire infield of Adrian Gonzalez, Dustin Pedroia, Marco Scutaro, and Kevin Youkilis is set. I'm not dealing Youkilis. Will Middlebrooks isn't ready and I want nothing to do with 150 games of Mike Aviles at third. Neither, by the way, do you.
At catcher, I'll consult with my advisers, but I think we'll decide to put Lavarnway back in AAA so he can play more frequently and work to improve his catching skills. I resign Varitek as the back up catcher for six dollars and a box of expired Saltines. If Tek or Salty gets hurt I can bring Lavarnway up. If Lavarnway proves to be ready, I can cut, trade or stash Varitek on the DL. If he proves to be ready soon I can probably even repossess the Saltines.
Right Field was a slot I worked hard to upgrade, but the available production was never worth the cost. Especially so considering the Sox have two in-house options likely to play at an average level. In the end, I'm sanguine on Ryan Kalish, who I hope will prove healthy and capable of winning the every day job. If he can't then Josh Reddick has some skills too. Andruw Jones will back up whom ever starts.
My lineup looks like this:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF
2. Dustin Pedroia, 2B
3. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
4. David Ortiz, DH
5. Kevin Youkilis, 3B
6. Carl Crawford, LF
7. Josh Reddick, RF
8. Salty/Tek, C
9. Scutaro, SS
My rotation looks like this:
1. Jon Lester
2. Josh Beckett
3. Clay Buchholz
4. Yu Darvish
5. Derek Lowe Erik Bedard
And the Bullpen:
Jonathan Papelbon/Ryan Madson
Daniel Bard
Alfredo Aceves
Felix Doubront
Matt Albers
Franklin Morales
Dan Wheeler
Benchy Bench:
Mike Aviles
Jason Varitek
Jed Lowrie
Andruw Jones
Final Thoughts
So that's it. Darvish is the big pick up, with everything else staying roughly the same. This roster reflects my belief that this roster really doesn't need much. With a bit of tweaking, a bit better luck, and lots of hard work, this team is, I believe, a championship club.
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I'm just nervous that Darvish won't work out too well in MLB
The Red Sox have made the mistake of believing way too much in a few good years; Lackey, Dice-K, etc. It would definitely be an interesting move, but it would cost a lot and may not be worth it. Other than that, I like the pickups of Andruw Jones and possibly Ryan Madson.
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You and your "facts."
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I like the Yu Darvish signing, although I believe he's not a Japanese pitcher.
If I’m not mistaken, he’s an Iranian pitcher who simply pitched in Japan. A minor or, really, nothing point, but for those who hold onto a belief that the Japanese kinesiology doesn’t translate well to MLB pitching this is as good a rationale as any. I prefer to look at it as Darvish having been better than Dice-K, is younger when posting, and has touched 100 on the radar gun (though throws mostly at 93-94, which is fine with his repertoire).
Jones is an interesting experiment, but it could easily be Mike Cameron, Part 2.
I think we’re saying goodbye to ’tek, though.
the belief is really that the differences in the Japanese game and the American game make the transition difficult
nothing to do with ethnicity. He’s half-Japanese, Half-Iranian, not that I really think that’s relevant. That said, I wouldn’t hate the move.
Jones could be Mike Cameron part 2, but will be way cheaper (he was on a 1 year, $2 million contract this year, which is probably about what he’s in line for again) and is younger.
There are things I like about Darvish and some I don't
And I don’t think his nationality is the issue, so much as the differences between the games and how they are played between there and here. The baseball itself is smaller and wound tighter, so there is a chance it could affect how effective his repetroire is. The strike zone is interpretated differently, etc. Plus, there is just a lot of history showing that a player’s numbers in Japan baseball just does not translate over to the MLB, with a few exceptions.
He does attack the hitter’s strike zone more than Dice-K did, although scouts tend to believe he leaves some of them up high in the strike zone and the hitters in Japan don’t all make him pay for it like the MLB batters would.
by The Name is Dalton on Nov 1, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
To your last point
I watched some video of Darvish on YouTube and did notice that many of his pitches were up in the zone. That I’m sure wasn’t a representative sample, and the strike zone could be differently interpreted causing him to need to throw higher, but it was something that surprised me a bit.
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Strikezone is my biggest concern
before Dice K came over from Japan, his control was legendary. Of course, we know what happened after. My feeling from all the NPL imports I have seen, both hitters and pitchers, is that the NPL has a slightly wider strike zone and possibly a higher one as well. It appears to me that few hitters from the NPL have been adapt at taking pitches away (the exception being Matsui) but they exhibit excellent plate coverage and contact ability (think Ichiro for the extreme example). Pitchers conversely have either been hit hard or had control issues. Matsuzaka didn’t have bad stuff or poor overall command, he simply throw only to the edges and refused to attack the zone. I could wrong and I certainly don’t have mountains of data, but I think the tendencies we have seen may be indicative of a fundamental difference in play.
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Matsuzaka didn’t have legendary control in Japan. Actually he walked a fair number of guys. Nothing crazy, but enough so that you wouldn’t ever call him a great control pitcher. I can’t find the stats now, but this article from Fan Graphs gives some nice background on the differences between Matsuzaka and Darvish.
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yes I saw that piece and I don't doubt that Darvish will be a good major league pitcher
better than Dice K certainly. I don’t know Dice k’s stats from the NPL but that was what I remember being said. I think there are a number of better options though, but obviously speak to that later.Davish’s posting fee does not effect the luxury cap, which is a plus in his column as well.
- Matt Sullivan
"I would change policy, bring back natural grass and nickel beer. Baseball is the belly-button of our society. Straighten out baseball, and you straighten out the rest of the world." Bill "Spaceman" Lee
www.overthemonster.com
www.spacemanspancakes.wordpress.com
Darvish is half Iranian and half Japanese
His father is Iranian and his mother Japanese.
They also spoke English extensively in his house until his was 3 years old and he reportedly knows the language.
Culturally and socially, I really don’t fear Yu having problems adjusting to the degree Dice-K supposedly did.
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 1, 2011 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions
The adjustability factor for Darvish is an excellent point.
From what I understand he’s also married to a movie or TV star so he’s used to the paparazzi and the attention beyond just the usual sports reporters.
From reports I have read
baseball insiders are expecting the posting fee for Darvish to be in the 30M range. That means you just wasted 30M.
I do like the Jones signing though. He did a good job in NY as a platoon player no reason he wouldn’t here too.
Varitek – Gotta pass on him this year.
I would offer Wake 2 a year to come back. You can never have enough starting pitching…
Not really
The posting fee for Dice-K came out of John Henry’s pockets, and does not impact the payroll (nor does it count towards the CBT). Henry has stated that the posting fee did not affect his willingness to spend on the payroll proper, and the fact that the payroll has increased by $20+ million since Matsuzaka’s signing bears him out on this.
In other words, we can basically ignore the posting fee from the perspective of the Red Sox’s ability to spend. The ONLY question relevant to the posting is whether ownership themselves are willing to drop the money from their overall finances (which are, to be frank, feckin’ enormous). And again, the Dice-K precedent suggests that, at the very least, they aren’t AVERSE to the very idea.
What sports writers are expecting has nothing necessarily to do with how much the actual posting fee is. Think about it: if you worked for a baseball team that was going to put in a bid, would you tell a sports writer how much you were going to bid? If anything you’d undercut it so that your competitors would under bid.
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It's really impossible
to guess what the posting fee is. What a weird system.
I think someone will always end up vastly outbidding what anyone else is doing, since these are blind bids from clubs with vastly different player evaluations and little NPB→MLB precedent.
by abbreviatedman on Nov 1, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Agreed.
I think the best way to go about it is to decide based on as much good data as possible how much you think the player is worth and then pay that amount (assuming you can afford it). Guessing based on what sports writers are saying is a recipe for mistakes.
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Does anyone know how to figure the penalty for going over the luxury amount?
Larry L isn’t just looking at the max payroll; he is all about the total bottom dollar for all things Red Sox. Depending on what the penalty is, it may be smarted to go over the Luxury tax and pay a fee each year, by signing a different player, rather than dropping 30-60M up front plus 10 per year on Darvish.
by ThoughtsAndSox on Nov 1, 2011 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
it is
a sliding scale between 22.5% and 40% depending on what your rate was last year. Of the top of my head
22.5% if you’re going over for the first time
30% if you paid 22.5% last year and are going over again
40% if you paid 30% or more last year
and each year you go without going over the threshold brings you down one level- so if the Yankees paid 40% this year (I’m pretty sure they’re the only ones who’ve reached 40%), then didn’t go over in 2012, if they went over in 2013, their rate would be 30%.
Like I said, that’s all off the top of my head, but I’m fairly confident about it.
The %s are right
And I’m assuming what you’re saying about going up and down a level is correct too. Can’t remember that part.
I would also add that the luxury tax salary threshold was $170 million in 2010 and $178 in 2011, so I would imagine a small increase would put it up over $180 million.
by The Name is Dalton on Nov 1, 2011 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh yes and I forgot to mention
this is all void as of when this CBA ends. I don’t know what it will actually be for the coming year. Might be completely different.
Those %s also only reflect the amount over the threshold you go
So if you went over by $1 for the third time, you’d pay forty cents.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.
Forgot about that part
Good point.
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true but then the next year the rate would be 40% again if you wanted to go over then
not worth going over by $1
RE: Wake
I thought long and hard about Wake (though that probably didn’t come across in the post), but in the end I just don’t think he’s much of a major league pitcher anymore. Sucks because I’m a huge fan of his, but he’s old and the last couple seasons have been pretty putrid.
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there's really nothing here that I dislike
except that I would have Lavarnway up with the big league club as backup catcher. I realize that he could use regular at bats, but I’d rather have him spending his time learning the major league pitchers and focusing on how they work. I have enough faith in his bat that I think he’ll be OK with that. In any case, if last year is any indication, Salty isn’t exactly the type of guy who is going to be catching 150 games.
I think you spent too much on your posting fee, but if you want to do that, you and John Henry can hash that out.
I’d talk to Wake and say “look, we appreciate everything you’ve done. I know you don’t want to be finished, but we can’t guarantee you a bullpen or rotation spot. We’ll honor you if you want to retire, but if not, all we can do is offer a minor league contract and tell you that if the last few years are any indication, there’s a good chance you’ll be making some starts for the Sox”
I really love the ideas of Madson and Jones. I think they’re perfect fits.
If Papelbon wants more than 3/30 or 2/28, I'd switch our attention to Madson
Madson’s been nearly as good as Papelbon (actually, slightly better over the past 3 seasons if you’re going by FIP), and has demonstrated more consistency to boot – something important to consider when you’re talking pricey relievers.
If Madson is really going to cost roughly half of what Papelbon demands, then it almost becomes a no-brainer. “Shipping Up to Boston” can play for a new closer.
Boras is his agent, he won't cost much less than what Paps gets
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Madson won't settle for half of what Papelbon will get.
No way.
by The Name is Dalton on Nov 1, 2011 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Madson can demand what ever he wants to but I doubt he gets a lot more than half of what Paps pulls down. We’ll see.
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Really?
How much do you think Papelbon is going to get?
by The Name is Dalton on Nov 1, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
My guess is Paps ends up with 3 years and somewhere around $35 million.
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Interesting
I guess Madson in theory won’t be offered any more than $6.5 million a year but I just think a team will pay more for a sure-handed reliever like him. Detroit paid what…$5.5 million this year and the next two years to Benoit to be a set-up guy?
I honestly would not be surprised to see Madson get a 3 yr/25-27 million offer from some desperate team in need of a closer that misses out on Paps/Bell.
by The Name is Dalton on Nov 1, 2011 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah that sounds about right to me
frankly, I’d rather give him that than give Papelbon $36-39 million- not that I don’t like Papelbon, just at a point the money for a reliever gets absurd.
I think they should trade for David Wright, and move Youk to DH. Throwing Santana in the mix as well, could be a possibility.
by Mega Nick on Nov 1, 2011 11:21 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Who would you give up?
The Mets aren’t going to want to give up Wright for nothing….and its not like we have a stocked Minor League system right now. We have a lot of potential, but very little quite ready, and most of that we need.
I looked at Wright
But the problem is you’re essentially trading Ortiz for Wright. I like Wright too, but Ortiz costs only money. Wright is going to cost more money (this year) than Ortiz AND he’s going to cost prospects AND he’s not as good a hitter. I guess it comes down to do you think Youk can play third or not. I think he can.
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Your tie?
What’s up with that hair?
(I kid, I kid.)
Also, count me in on the Darvish train. If we sign Darvish and obtain a reasonable #5, either by trade or via a “low-risk, high reward” Smoltz-type deal, I will be quite happy indeed.
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Dad?
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Wright = not cheap, and had a down year. Santana = not cheap, and had a down year.
This should make acquiring either of them an easier proposition.
As far as specifics any discussion of David Wright would obviously start with Will Middlebrooks. Then they could look at giving up some combo of Anderson, Reddick, Kalish, Doubront, etc…
by Mega Nick on Nov 1, 2011 11:46 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
No thanks
Middlebrooks might not be the next franchise third baseman for the Sox, but as a top prospect there’s value there.
Wright is signed for only one more guaranteed year, and it’s not a cheap year, and he seems to be declining both offensively and defensively. Not interested in the price it would take.
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 1, 2011 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Jed Lowrie, Drake Britton, Stolmy Pimental for Chase Headley.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.
As long as you're willing to resign Varitek,
you might as well offer him arbitration. He’s a Type-B somehow, and I’d bet you’d find a compensation pick worthwhile to scrap your plans on Lavarnway in the minors, in the case that Varitek refuses and signs elsewhere. I don’t know if any of that would happen, though.
Let Papelbon go.
And pick up Beltran instead. He’ll help more and possibly cost less.
Maybe grab Ryan Madson, like you said, or if you can’t afford him, some reclamation projects like Nathan or Broxton.
I’d also be fairly happy with saving your Darvish money and going after Hamels/Grienke/Cain/Danks the following year.
But overall, I’d be pretty damn happy with your results.
I couldnt handle it if we got Andruw Jones.
That name drives me batty.
by Sologub on Nov 1, 2011 11:57 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Rather Andruw than Jhonny
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.
Or Chone for that matter.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.
though Chone is legitimately a name
around Bahamas and Haiti. Not sure about the other two, but I don’t think they’re real names…
Didn't know that about "Chone".
The other two look like they were typed too fast.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
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OTM | Silver Seven
I just don't know
if the Sox will be willing to go all out on Darvish. With the fact this team needs more proven pitchers and he’s such a great unknown, he could be great, but he could be DIce-K 2.0. They do not need more question marks in the rotation, they need more proven Major League pitching.
All teams need pitching, "proven" or otherwise
And even “proven” pitchers can suck. Most of the scouting reports say Darvish is nothing like Matsuzaka. There isn’t much out there that’s exciting or “proven” on the FA market. Wilson will be overpaid. Oswalt will be 35-years old next year and has never pitched in the AL. Hiroki Kuroda, a Japanese pitcher who has had success in the NL, is a FA. But he’ll be 38 next year. How much do you want to pay for Edwin Jackson? Jon Garland isn’t very good. I like Erik Bedard, but what are the chances he throws 150 innings next year? There are lots of Bruce Chen/Brad Penny/Rich Harden/Freddy Garcia/Bartolo Colon-type starters out there.
Darvish will only cost money, a portion of which won’t count toward the Luxury Tax. Other FA will cost money and draft picks, and all of the money will count against the “cap.” As for trades, the Sox don’t have much to offer. Also, because a lot of Japanese pitchers haven’t been great in North America, Darvish may cost less than some of the more “proven” starters—and he’s a lot younger.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 1, 2011 9:11 PM EDT up reply actions
My main point
is Darvish is so unknown that he could be great or he could suck. I don’t think the Sox want that on their team. I’d rather sign someone with stats that you know how they would translate to the AL East, not guess about them.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 1, 2011 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Many evaluators think he'll be a good major league pitcher
Based on his age, what else is out there (and what you have to give up to get something good), Darvish may be a better gamble than many here seem to think. BTW, most of the pitchers that are available are risky—and the Sox don’t have much to offer other teams, assuming there’s a good pitcher available via a trade.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 1, 2011 11:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I just want somebody
who evaluators know will be good, not think.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 1, 2011 11:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I wasn't saying Wilson
or Oswalt fit the bill. I just think that investing in an unkown quantity,again, is not smart business. The Sox won’t be able to get Darvish on a one year deal, so the risk of him being Dice-K 2,0 is higher than him not being Dice-K 2.0. If the Sox can get through 2012 similar to what the Yankees did this year with Garcia and Colon, they should be in a better shape, because they have Rannaudo coming up in 2013.
Here’s a comparison of Darvish and Dice-K.
Despite what many think, there are very few sure things in baseball. The MFY got very lucky with Garcia and Colon.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions
With Red Sox
offense all they really need is two pitchers who can keep them in the game most of the time. Just because people say Darvish is not Dice-k is nice but I have to see it for myself before I believe it. I think there are options that could be less expensive and maybe this time the Sox will get lucky with their Garcia and Colon types.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 2, 2011 10:03 AM EDT up reply actions
First, before he got hurt, Dice-K was a pretty good pitcher. The 2007-2008 version of Dice-K was valuable.
Also, counting on reclamation projects is infinitely more risky than signing a healthy, 25-year old pitcher, who dominated in Japan. For the Sox to succeed with Mutt and Jeff in the 4/5 spots they’ll need all their top three starters to be both good and healthy. With Beckett and Buchholz, that’s not a sure thing.
Finally, as has been pointed out by a few people, there isn’t much out there that’s better.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 10:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Sorry
I don’t agree with your opinion, but I just think that the Sox would be wise to stay away from Darvish. Dominating in Japan is no reason to give this guy the stars and the moon. It’s not just DIce-K, it’s most of the pitchers who have come over from Japan. Really the only two that have had sustained success are Nomo and Kuroda. People bring up Colby Lewis, but they forget he was in the American system before he went to Japan. I just think spending a whole lot of money, when the Sox may not have that money depending on what happens with Papi and Paps, is not a smart thing to do.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 2, 2011 10:49 AM EDT up reply actions
The Sox have money
They’re worried about the Luxury Tax. The posting fee for a Japanese player doesn’t count toward that.
I’m not saying Darvish will dominate in the majors (although he might). But, chances are, he’ll be a good major league pitcher. What I don’t understand is the aversion to Darvish. Forget the Dice-K hype. Quite a few Japanese pitchers have succeeded in North American baseball.
Here’s the point: every available starter carries some risk. Most will cost something, either draft picks or prospects in a trade. Very few will cost just money. Of the latter group, Darvish is probably the best available option—and the one with the highest ceiling.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions
The problem is
you’d be paying him to Dominate in the Majors, not a middle of the league type pitcher which we won’t know what he’ll be until he gets there. We have those guys John Lackey and Dice-K. The Sox could find middle of the league guys cheaper and still have money to adress other needs, whether it’s in the off-season or during the season.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 2, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Yup
The AAV of Dice-K’s contract is $8.67 million.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 11:58 AM EDT up reply actions
You really think
he and his agent(s) would demand any less than what Dice-K makes. If he’s better than Dice-K, he should be paid more than Dice-K.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 2, 2011 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
His agent has very little leverage
Once the posting fee is paid, Darvish can only play for one MLB team or stay in Japan. Dice-K signed a 6-year/$52 million contract, far below what he would have made on the open market.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions
His agent will probably be
Boras. He’ll use the argument that “My client has better stats than DIce-K, therefore he should be paid more than Dice-K.” If it was a one year for $10 million I’d have no problem signing Darvish, but I’d be more comfortable calling up Alex Wilson right now. The Red Sox have top flight pitching, Lester, Beckett and Buchholz, if the latter hadn’t gotten hurt the Red Sox probably would have made the playoffs. The Red Sox just need to add a few fill-ins right now.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 2, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Boras was Dice-K's agent
It didn’t matter. Boras is only good when he can negotiate with multiple teams and play them against each other.
While I agree with you that the Sox would have been in the post-season if Buchholz hadn’t been on the DL for months, Buchholz hasn’t shown that he can stay healthy. He has never pitched more than 173.2 innings in a season. Until he shows he can make 30+ starts consistently, he’s a question mark.
A rotation of Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, and a few fill-ins isn’t a lock to be better than this year’s rotation.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
It may not be better
but if you can keep Buchholz healthy somehow, the top three would be able to make up fo some weaknesses in the bottom part of the rotation. And plus you could acquire more depth with the posting fee of Darvish, where if one of the top thre get hurt you have a pitcher who could probably give you a good month or two while the top guy rehabs.
The posting fee is irrelevant
It doesn’t count toward the Luxury Tax. The Sox aren’t short of money.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
It doesn't count towards the
Luxury tax, but it’s less money for them to spend. I think you are discounted this one fact, the Sox system is heavy on guys that are close to the majors and in the low minors. I think they could probably get a third team involved to swing a deal for a starter and than fill out the rotation with a Bedard, Garland type pitcher.
they're not really at all strong on guys that are close to the majors
and actually project to be major league players. Reddick is possibly, but right now looks more like a 4th outfielder than anything else long term. Kalish may be, but his value is pretty much zero after last year. Iglesias only is in the sense that he plays baseball about 40 miles from Fenway. Same with Lars.
If you want Darvish
that’s fine. I think the Sox would be wiser to spend money other places. Just because you think the Sox aren’t that strong in the close to the majors, doesn’t mean other teams don’t. These teams will take risks sometimes, esp. the teams like Oakland and the lower market teams, because they need to find cheap options to fill out their rosters. I think for the 2012 season signing Darvish should be a luxury item, if they fill out the roster in RF, sign Paps and Papi, than they could say we have accomplished our main goals, let’s go after Darvish. But if they fail to sign Paps and/or Papi, which will mean they will have to turn to other players to fill out those spots. Even if they sign Darvish, they probably need two to three more depth signings in the rotation.
I'm not convinced on him, myself
My personal preference is go after Oswalt and get him for a couple of year. RF is not a huge concern for me, really, I wouldn’t sign anyone to a significant contract to play there- just find a complementary player.
I just think that is Oswalt isn’t available for a reasonable price and they do end up going to free agency, Darvish is certainly an interesting case, and I’d have more faith in him and his potential than any of the other guys out there.
I think the way I’m valuing those guys is probably fairly accurate to how most people are rating them. None of those guys are getting rated terribly well these days. Reddick, I think is certainly the most appealing, but trading him also would necessitate actually signing a real right fielder rather than just a complementary type guy. I don’t know, it all depends on the particular scenario.
What kind of guy in particular are you hoping to trade for? In my mind the cost is relative- for example, if you trade Reddick in a deal for someone like McCarthy, while McCarthy himself will be cheap, that probably also necessitates signing either Cuddyer or Beltran, or else somehow coming up with another trade- which probably ends up being more expensive than signing someone like Oswalt, and I’m not convinced that McCarthy/Cuddyer makes our team better than Oswalt/Reddick.
I guess my long winded point here is just to keep in mind the money that is required by opening up other holes.
McCarthy would be good
and I’d be more comfortable with him than Darvish. I’m not opposed to getting Darvish, but I want to have contingencies in place first before we sign him, because with the injury history of Buchholz, and the fact that Lester and Beckett always have their DL time, be it fake or real, the Sox need more than just Darvish to fill out their roster. While the posting fee doesn’t count towards the luxury tax, his salary for the season does, and if we get Papi and Paps for say both over $10 million there’s not a lot of wiggle room under the luxury tax.
*to fill out the rest of the roster. If the Sox had a RF in place and Pap or Papi under control, than Darvish makes sense, but when you need a RF who isn’t going to be that cheap, a couple bullpen guys whether the Sox lose Paps or not, a few Oswalt type starters is what I mean.
yup, I'll agree with that
I think maybe our difference in viewpoint is that I’m content to let Reddick start in right field, possibly platooning with a complementary player (someone cheap) and give Kalish a chance to prove that he’s more worthy of the job in AAA. Then there’s less money going to right field and more to pursue free agents.
I think probably the annual cost for a guy like Oswalt and a guy like Darvish is probably similar- maybe with Oswalt being a tiny bit more (at least in the first couple of years, after which Darvish probably goes up), so at that point, it’s all risk/reward. I’d rather try to get Oswalt, who I see as a lot less risk, but I guess my curiosity is definitely piqued by Darvish. I haven’t seen him pitch, so I’m not in a great position to really say what is best, but he certainly would be the riskiest way to go (not counting CJ Wilson)
I totally agree with you
and I think there’s one thing overlooked, the Sox do have Aceves and Doubront, and maybe Alex Wilson, who could all be the fill-in starters if say Oswalt gets hurt. They also have Dice-K coming back later in the season. The depth could be made through guys like Oswalt, Bedard, Garland et al. and if the Sox need to get a few spot starts from Doubront, Wilson, Aceves. I think the most interesting team to watch in terms of a possibility of trading with is the White Sox. If they can re-sign Buehrle, they have Chris Sale who they want to add to the rotation, maybe that could make either Danks or Floyd a little less expensive in terms of trading for.
Rumor has it
A few teams are scared of Oswalt’s injury history.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
And you know this
is actually true? These GMs are snake oil salesmen, most of what they say are to be taken with a grain of salt.
Sure
But Philly declined his option. Maybe last year is a fluke. Oswalt’s K-rate, velocity and swinging strike rate all declined last year. He’ll be 35 next August. Buyer beware.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
well I don't think he's worth $16 million a year
and the Phillies are trying to afford to keep Hamels rather than Oswalt. So it would’ve been weird if they picked up the option.
His back woes are certainly a risk. But anyone out there comes with risk. I’d take that gamble.
They also want to sign him back.
If they were truly worried about his back, they wouldn’t.
by The Name is Dalton on Nov 2, 2011 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
You see it a lot
a team declines an option not because they don’t want the player, they just don’t want him at the price of the option. Like the Sox with Wheeler, he could be brought back but at lower price.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 2, 2011 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions
What would the Sox do with $40-50 million of non-payroll money?
I hope you don’t mean they wouldn’t have that to spend in the draft or in the international free agency market.
The posting fee would come from H/W/L’s pockets and would be in addition to all the money they would normally spend on the team.
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 2, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
The Sox have tons of money
The Luxury Tax isn’t a hard cap. While the Sox probably prefer to stay under the tax threshold, they don’t have to. It’s important to note, the posting fee paid for the rights to a Japanese player don’t count toward the tax. Also, Dice-K’s contract was good value when he was healthy.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Ranaudo would have to really do well in 2012 for him to make any kind of mark on the majors in 2013
He wasn’t exactly great in High-A this year.
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 2, 2011 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep
He’s more than a year away.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Any idea on your back-up starters?
Besides Doubront of course…Bedard can’t be counted on for a full season as a full time rotation member and as I think the pitching staff you have up there isn’t awe-inspiring given the low number of innings four of those guys went. You could look at guys like Oswalt, Garland, Harden, Harang (who I don’t love the idea of), and a couple other guys who could eat up innings. Oswalt would necessitate a rotation spot but I don’t have a problem with that at all.
I agree on avoiding Wilson and Jackson. Madson is a type A so he would cost draft picks but those in theory would be at least partially offset by whoever signs Papelbon.
Personally, I don’t mind the idea of keeping Papelbon if a deal is reasonable even if it means to not sign Ortiz to spend on starting pitching. I like Papi more in some ways, but I think he is more replaceable. If Papi goes, they keep Lavarnway up to get regular at-bats, and be a back-up catcher as well. Youk spends less time at 3B, DH’ing for the 50ish games that Lavarnway catches. Lavarnway fills the roster spot of two players (Ortiz/Tek), which allows for an extra player for positional depth.
Paps is a proven top tier closer and while it is easy to say, “there are plenty of guys who can come in and pitch an inning”, it isn’t easy to say they can do it well.
by The Name is Dalton on Nov 1, 2011 12:11 PM EDT reply actions
One thing I think being
over looked is the fact that this was the first year in a long time where the Sox didn’t dominate in interleague play. If the Sox win one game at any point of the season, not just at the end of the season, they make the playoffs. The Sox need to be a little more flexible in the way they set up their offense so they are not so reliant on the DH position.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 1, 2011 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Losing 2/3 against the Padres
That was the worst.
Still, it’s impossible to replace Ortiz’s awesome DH production with a rotating DH to rest injured players. I’d prefer they kept him.
I look at what the Rangers did
as what the Sox should do. They had Michael Young as their primary DH, but he could still play 1st, 3rd and 2nd, and in a pinch SS if necessary. Same with Napoli, he was their primary catcher, but he could play first and DH. I don’t think the DH should be reserved for injured players, I think it should be reserved as a spot for a guy who needs a day off to prevent an injury.
The Red Sox had the most productive DH in baseball last year. I think they did just fine. And to your Michael Young point, Young is a fine hitter, not great, but fine. But defensively he’s bad at just about any position. And he’s not the hitter Ortiz is or even really close.
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But when you take
Ortiz out of the line up, this offense struggles. You could have similar numbers using Lavarnway as the primary DH and because he’s still somewhat unproven the Sox could use Youkilis, Gonzo, Pedey and Ells as the DH on their days off so you don’t lose their bat. Ortiz is one demensional and to pay him $10 million, when you could invest that money in pitching, and still win ball games, IMO is not the best thing to do.
No I don't expect Lavarnway to put up Ortiz numbers alone.
But a combination of Lavarnway, Youkilis, Gonzalez, Ellsbury and Pedroia could. And the Sox could keep them healthier for the whole season, and invest whatever money they were going to in Papi, but in pitching, pitching and more pitching.
I think he meant the combination of
Lavarnway’s production at say 100 games and then Youk, Gonzo, Pedey and Ells production for the other 62 games where they DH (for instance). Which, still may or may not be a stretch…but that is how I read it.
by The Name is Dalton on Nov 1, 2011 4:53 PM EDT up reply actions
It'd be something similar to that
but I’d anticipate at the beginning of the season, Youk would need a few days off, because of his surgery. Than you take out the times where Lavarnway would be the starting Catcher, and the National league games in interleague play, and you probably would have around 120 games to split up.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 1, 2011 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
Ortiz is one-dimensional, but that dimension is offense. As I said in the post, Ortiz was one of the ten best hitters in all of baseball last year. Expecting that of Lavarnway isn’t fair or likely.
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Have you ever seen Young play 1B or 3B?
He’s awful.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 1, 2011 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Both are DHs, and Ortiz is a better hitter.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 1, 2011 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
My main point
is that if you keep Youkilis healthy by letting him DH a little more, and you get better production from RF, losing Ortiz would be mitigated.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 1, 2011 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't disagree with that
Although Ortiz’s production won’t be easy to replace.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 1, 2011 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
The problem is, once you have all five slots filled then other pitchers like the ones you mentioned aren’t going to want to sign in Boston. Doubront, Miller, Alex Wilson (maybe), and then Dice-K might have to be the back ups with Aceves doing spot starts. While that may sound bad, remember that the Sox are unlikely to have as many starting pitcher injuries this coming season as last year. I think you go into the year knowing Dice-K will be back late in the year and you make a mid-season trade if need be, but hopefully the team won’t have to use 10 starters next season again.
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You probably will have to out-bid the Yankees if you want Andruw Jones. They will likely want him back.
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Apropos of nothing
Andruw Jones is going to have a fascinating Hall of Fame case, unless he has a real career resurgence and becomes a no doubter.
Maybe
But I don’t think Jones will cost too much in the end. He’s a back up outfielder. The Yankees aren’t going to give him $6 million a season.
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If you’re willing to give him that much more power to you. Just saying the Yankees won’t just let him walk away, probably.
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Maybe not
But he’s a free agent so it’s not totally up to them.
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Well thanks.
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I agree
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 1, 2011 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm surprised
I thought there’d be a LOT more resistance to signing Darvish in these comments than there has been. I’m not saying there should be resistance; I’m just surprised there isn’t. I would definitely rather throw money at him than at CJ Wilson.
There was some resistance up-thread, but it’s not like there are lots of great options out there. I think people realize that.
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Glad to see I'm not the only one with long hair.
Like the plan, too, except for Yu Darvish. Not sure I spend 120 MM on him with the big pool of proven MLB starters hitting the market after next season.
Let's trade Reddick for Heyward!
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The issue is how much is the posting fee, in my opinion
I don’t care one bit what happens to John Henry’s money. So long as it doesn’t impact our payroll in any significant way, I’d be just fine with Darvish.
I think the
bigger question is do you want to possibly pay for Dice-K 2.0? This team doesn’t need any more question marks in the rotation.
Sure, I don't care
I’m not paying a dime. That said, obviously we would be expecting more out of Darvish than Dice-K.
You're paying
if you go to games or watch on TV. If it came to a choice of Darvish or Wilson, I’d take Wilson in heart beat. He’s proven, he doesn’t have to be the ace of the staff.
yes he does because we do not have an ace right now
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I just think investing
money into an unproven pitcher again is idiotic, when there are other question marks on this team. If other fans want to watch this guy struggle than that’s fine, but I don’t. Darvish probably won’t struggle adjusting to the culture, but the ball in Japan is smaller, and they pitch once a week. Japanese have had minimal impact in the American style of baseball.
Gizmo, what's your definition of an "ace"?
Looking at the last 4 years in the AL (pitchers with at least 700 IP), King Felix is tops by ERA and xFIP. Verlander has the best FIP. However, Jon Lester is right up there with the AL’s best. Here are the top 5:
K/9:
(1) Verlander – 8.85
(2) Lester – 8.68
(3) Beckett – 8.42
(4) Burnett – 8.31
(5) Hernandez – 8.25
BB/9:
(1) Buehrle – 2.03
(2) Shields – 2.10
(3) Blackburn – 2.22
(4) Beckett – 2.37
(5) Weaver – 2.44
ERA:
(1) Hernandez – 2.89
(2) Sabathia – 3.27
(3) Weaver – 3.30
(4) Lester – 3.33
(5) Verlander – 3.45
FIP:
(1) Verlander – 3.20
(2) Hernandez – 3.24
(3) Sabathia – 3.29
(4) Lester – 3.43
(5) Weaver – 3.52
xFIP:
(1) Hernandez – 3.35
(2) Beckett/Sabathia – 3.45
(4) Lester – 3.48
(5) Verlander – 3.59
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 9:58 AM EDT up reply actions
My guess is that the answer will include some for of...
“Aces don’t collapse in the stretch run when their team needs them most”
by South Coast Ghost on Nov 2, 2011 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Whatever
Justin Verlander: 8 playoff starts – 3-3 5.57 ERA. Definitely NOT an “ace.”
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 2, 2011 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Off-season
Then I go poop in Antonetti’s mail box.
Of course you would.
Anywho, I’d kick the tires on Darvish. If the Red Sox are able to identify why Dice-K couldn’t make the transition from the Japanese game to the American game and judge if Darvish is likely to do it, then great. I think that the Sox are probably in the best position (well…and the Cubs now, I suppose) to figure this out having seen Dice-K on a daily basis the past 5 years or whatever the hell it’s been.
I don’t support any plan that does not include the abrupt removal of one Timothy Bogar.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
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Bogar would be out as third base coach.
I’ll leave the question of whether or not there’s a spot for him elsewhere up to the new manager. I’m open to bringing him back in a new role, though I’d guess Mackanin or whomever takes over the manager’s office would want his own guys.
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Of course you would.
Darn toot’n.
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So?
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 1, 2011 9:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, you’re right. I should’ve signed Albert Pujols, and traded Adrian Gonzalez for Justin Verlander.
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by Matthew Kory on Nov 1, 2011 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s about the only option though. It’s Darvish long term or not at all, and that’s only if you’re the winner of the posting process.
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by Matthew Kory on Nov 1, 2011 11:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup
And the fact that Darvish is 25-years old might make him a better long-term risk than most of the available starters.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Nov 1, 2011 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions
wonder if it would be possible
to offer not too much over the years, with the option of him opting out after two years and going through the arbitration process. Greater reward for him if he succeeds, bigger risk for him if he doesn’t.
Thank you for your reply Matt
He is great pitcher in japan.
But japanese baseball is very pitcher-friendly lately because of park effect and starting to use low resilient ball.
In fact, 2011 season ,
There were six starting pitchers that below ERA2.00 in all twelve teams .
There were twenty six starting pitchers that below ERA3.00 in all twelve teams.
Dirvish may be decent starting pitcher in MLB.
He also has potential as frontline starter but not proved yet.
Very high price tag even if low cost in AAV.
and the contract will be too long(5 or 6years?) for not proven pitcher in MLB.
It makes me nervous. Redsox already have many longterm contract starting pitchers.
I hope you can understand my bad english.
Thanks for commenting.
I don’t know any languages except English so I admire your ability to communicate in a language that isn’t your own. Thanks for reading and commenting.
As for Darvish, yes, he is not a sure thing. He could be an expensive flop. But I think the likelihood of that is low. The question is where are the Red Sox going to find some pitching for 2012. In writing this article, I looked at potential trades and tried to think of some unlikely options. However, most of the better pitchers are on teams that are unlikely to trade them. I think Darvish probably represents the Red Sox best option to add talent at a reasonable cost (relative to what else they could get on the free agent market).
Writer at Over The Monster. Follow me on Twitter! It'll be super awesome fun! @mattymatty2000
thanks, Matt
I would probably think Hisashi iwakuma who was bid for Oakland last year is one of the options for Redsox if Sox could agree with ONE year contract. He is now Free Agency.
He is not hard thrower like Dirvish. But He has good sinker and spliter and decent command.
Yes, however he is an injury prone …….. That’s a risk.
Yeah
He didn’t agree with OAK for 4years $15.25M deal.
And in this season, He only threw 120inning-pitches because of shoulder injury.
Now his Value is down. and lately he said he would go to USA as Free Agency.
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