BZ's Off-Season Plan
by BobZupcic on Oct 26, 2011 7:04 PM EDT
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PrintI disappeared from this site for a while at season's end due to a very unfortunate event - I went back to work. Teaching has its pros - pay NOT being one of them - but the cons are long-hard hours come August-September. Luckily this year, I didn't miss much Red Sox baseball during those months because they forgot to play. Now that I'm a bit more settled into the routiine, I've found time to revisit lately and here is my plan for the 2012 Red Sox. So Big Ben, if you are reading...take some notes. This will be in Step-by-step fashion, due to my teacher-ness (no, I do not teach English).
Step #1: Get John Lackey off of the team - BOOM!, well that's not exactly what I had in mind, but hey - at the very least he'll be on the 60-Day DL, and not in the locker room. Which means he'll be rehabbing with beer and Popeye's Chicken somewhere.
Step #2: Make a nice offer to David Ortiz, but not an egregious one - A 2-year contract in the range of 12 million should be fair and allow Big Papi to potentially finish off a nice career in Beantown. If he presses for more money than you are willing to spend then state your offer once again and give him time to mull over just how many teams are willing to go 2 years and 12 million per on a 36-year old DH. Fall-Back DH: Cuddyer/Lavarnway/Youk
Step #3: Say goodbye to the "old guard" with some class - Varitek, Wakefield and Drew have been icons in Boston for various reasons. They've brought us some great moments are were significant contributors on championship clubs, but its time to part ways and get a bit younger. Accolade them to death, but do not sign them to contracts.
Step #4: Re-sign Jonathan Papelbon - The reliever market just plain stinks this year and with Paps you know what you are getting. If you move Bard to closer then you lose your high-leverage arm in the 8th and that's significantly harder to replace. Paps is one of only two relievers to average over a 2.0 WAR during the past 6 years (Rivera is the other). I must admit, as goofy as the dude is, he can pitch, is still in his prime and just seems like one of the upbeat guys. That said, do not go overboard - pick your years and amount and if someone else sets the market, move on. Fall-Back: Bard
Step #5: Pick up Scutaro's option but decline Wheeler's - 6 million is not a bad price to pay for one year of "I know what I'm getting" at SS. Especially when you consider what most clubs got at SS last year and the Free Agent market at said position (Scutaro posted a 2.9 WAR in limited time). With Scutaro, Aviles and Lowrie you've got a three-head-flexibility monster for pretty cheap. (Note: During the season, I'm looking around for trades to get better at SS in the long-term). As far as Wheeler goes - I like him, just not at 3 million. Why not bring in 3 guys at a million each and see if you can strike Aceves type gold again.
Step #6: Sign a few Free-Agents - just not very huge names - If I'm Ben I'm out there looking for a right-handed bat that can pass as an outfielder/DH. I bark up Michael Cuddyer's tree, scout Josh Willingham and even take a gander at Cody Ross. Cuddyer is likely to be the most expensive but can play 1B and allows Gonzalez to switch to DH and rest Papi. I might also sign a veteran catcher to stash at Pawtucket and a few cheap relievers. Sign at least one veteran hurler, but see if you can get it done with limited years. The club is already tied up in a plethora of arms for long-term, see if you can go bigger money on shorter deals for someone like Oswalt. I might even take a peak at someone like Chris Capuano or Jon Garland (I'm aiming for a decent innings eater to slot behind Lester/Beckett/Buchholz.
Step #7: Let some young kids play - I'm eyeing Reddick/Kalish, Lavarnway and potentially Bowden/Doubront for the big league club. Kalish may need more time at AAA to work out the injury kinks but Reddick platoons with my RH FA outfielder, Lavarnway is my backup catcher and part-time DH and I give Bowden/Doubront another chance to see what they can do in the pen. Depending upon how Tazawa is progressing I might even see what he brings.
Step #8: Offer contracts to all of my Arb cases with the exception of Darnell McDonald: Filet o' Fish has had some moments in Boston, but is clearly not helpful with the bat or with the glove - he needs to go. Sign a glove-man to replace him from the FA pool - or carry both Reddick and Kalish (I want my 5th outfielder to be able to flash some leather!). Salty, Lowrie, Aceves, Morales, Albers, Bard - I'm bringing back with reasonable deals.
Step #9: Sit down with Boras about Ellsbury - It's going to be much harder now that Jacoby decided to become a 5-tool player, but the sit-down has to happen. See if yo can get his arbitration year and a few free agency years bought out for a fair price and if not - go to arb and be willing to let this one go. I'm banking on Ellsbury hitting Free Agency because I just don't trust Boras.
Step #10: Think about trades that can help the team - I'm shopping Youkilis to a team that needs OBP and a good hitting firstbaseman to stick in the middle of the order. I'm shopping Lowrie because he's kinda redundant and needs a change of scenery. I'm listening on Reddick if Kalish looks healthy. Heck I'm even considering what I might be able to get for Ellsbury if the price is right. In all of these deals I'm looking for arms.
Potential 2012 Opening Day Roster:
Pitchers: Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Oswalt, Garland/Bedard, Paps, Bard, Bowden/Doubront/Weiland/Tazawa, Aceves, Albers, Morales
Batters: Salty, Lavarnway, Ortiz, Gonzalez, Pedroia, Aviles, Lowrie, Scutaro, Youk, Reddick, Kalish, Cuddyer/Willingham/Ross, Crawford, Ellsbury
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One move contrary to this
That I might consider is declining Scutaro’s option and seeing if I can bring back Alex Gonzalez on a cheap one-year plan. I realize he kinda sucked last year with the Braves, but he’s notoriously better than Scutaro with the glove and after watching Andrus in the W.S. I’m beginning to re-realize just how important a good-glove is at SS.
Bob nooooo
You wrote a nice, level-headed fanpost—don’t ruin it by talking crazy in the comments :)
I haven't read this yet...
but I say we do it!!
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
OTM | Silver Seven
Ha ha ha!
The respect Bob gets… we knew this was good before we read it.
Having read it, I really hope someone prints it and puts it on Ben’s desk. I’ve been saying for weeks that we need to listen to offers for Youk because this might be the last time we get the value he has from his recent past, based on two years ended by injury.
If he does it a third time, we’ve got nothing to show for him, but someone out there might need a first baseman that is capable of putting up middle of the order, MVP caliber numbers, and might be willing to deal us a piece that’s worth letting him go (you know, an arm with some potential that’s better than our guys in the minors. since we have those slots in the rotation).
I love the man, he’s a fan favorite, he guts it out at third base… but I think he’s more valuable to another team at first base than he is to us at third. (Assuming Papi puts all the drama talk behind him, and signs the two year, $12 million deal Bob is recommending.)
So, while I agree on a couple key points quite obviously, I cannot find anything to argue with in this post. Well written, and a great blueprint for a successful offseason to lead us back to glory in 2012.
Well done, Bob!
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
yessss pitching
or, here’s another thought- I was thinking about who we would possibly match up with that would be interested in Youk, and I thought- if the Brewers can’t hold on the Fielder (Doesn’t sound like they can), would they be interested in a Youk-for-Corey Hart trade? I was thinking Greinke, as he’ll be a free agent after 2012, but I doubt they’d move him at least before the season if they had any intention of competing (and I don’t see why they wouldn’t, even without Fielder). Their values by WAR have been shockingly similar the last couple years. Hart makes a couple million less, so we’d probably have to throw something else in, but nothing huge.
Hart might well be the absolute perfect complement to our lineup. Doesn’t solve our pitching issues, but does make one less other place we’d have to spend $ and actually save us a couple million. I don’t know the Brewers system well, so I don’t know if they have any up and coming first basemen or outfielders, so I don’t know how feasible that is.
I think with that money saved, we could absolutely afford to spend on Oswalt. Just a thought.
This is intruiging
Brew Crew need a SS as well so maybe Lowrie finds his way into he deal? Brewers could slot Youk at 1B.
Doesn't sound like the
Sox are going to trade Youk this off-season. Because his value is pretty low having come off two injury shortened seasons and this past season when he ended his seasons he didn’t have his typical numbers. This would be a case of selling low, which is something you should never do.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 28, 2011 10:11 AM EDT up reply actions
well yes and no
selling low in general is bad.
On the other hand, he is getting older and seems much more likely to get hurt playing third base than playing first base. He could probably provide more value to a team that had a spot for him at first base, and I think that’s pretty clear to people. If the Sox keep him and play him at third for another year, he’s likely to get hurt again, keeping his numbers lower than expected and limiting his playing time- so I’m not sure if it’s so much selling low as it is selling when his stock is lower than it was previously (as in, I don’t think he’ll likely rebound on the Sox).
I think playing first base, his career gets extended and his numbers improve. I don’t expect them to move Youk just for the sake of moving Youk, and I don’t think that there are any teams likely to give us young cost controlled pitching for him, but Hart seems to me to make a degree of sense for both teams.
I totally agree about
Hart. He would be a good solution. But I think the fact that Youk only has more contract season with the Sox. 2013 is an option year, so if they don’t think he’s useful piece anymore, they can decline the option. I think the other tricky part is finding a replacement. Middlebrooks is not ready yet and the FA pool is slim. Maybe you could sign Aramis Ramirez, if he would be willing to take a Beltre like deal. The trade market slim as well, David Wright could be on the block but that would probably cost an arm and a leg. I think Anderson for Hart could make some sense. Youk I think will be on the Sox for the start of the 2012 season, because if they think Middlebrooks is ready, and Youk is having a bounce back season, he could be a valuable trade piece come the deadline.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 28, 2011 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions
You would have to go a year
Rotating Lowrie/Aviles through 3B…where you get better defense but a weaker bat. Of course Hart off-sets the bat in RF and if you can swing Reddick for pitching….
I just don't think
that sacrificing offense when this pitching staff is shaky at best is the smartest thing to do. They’re picking up Scutaro’s option strictly based on the fact he’s a better offsnive player than Iglesias. I think the Brewers would be willing take Lars Anderson though. If we had a lockdown starting staff, than sacrificing offense for defense makes sense.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 28, 2011 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Lars is very, very close to useless
and almost certainly not a major league first baseman, there’s no way he would get Hart.
The difference is
Hart is still a good offensive player. Iglesias is a literal black hole with the bat. We’re talking worse than Adam Dunn’s 2011 bad.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 28, 2011 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
right, we could play him for a year, decline his option and get nothing for him
or we could trade him to someone who can probably use him at first for a few years and get value for him.
Aramis won’t be taking a Beltre-like deal. Beltre did taht coming off a down year so he could re-gain value. Aramis is coming of a pretty great year.
Yeah, but you aren't going
to be able to find somebody this year to give you the same production he gives you at third. The problem is not RF, could there be production out of RF yes, but this team led the Majors in runs, with very little production from their RF all year. The team needs pitching more than anything. Unless you’re getting Greinke for Youk, I wouldn’t do it. I think the Sox will only trade him if they got bowled over with an offer for a pitcher. I could see a scenario as I said below to Bob where they keep Youk at least at the beginning of the season, monitor Middlebrooks, and if they deem Middlebrooks ready, and Youk is having a typical Youkilis type season, using Youk to fill a need. If that’s RF and they want Hart, they could still get him midseason I’ll bet if the Brewers still need a 1st Baseman.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 28, 2011 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
we'll just agree to disagree
I think this would make a whole lot of sense- I think that the Sox would get more value out of Hart than they would out of Youk- regardless of position, and that the Brewers would get more production out of Youk at first than they would out of Hart.
If the Sox led the majors in runs without much production from right field next year, and they replaced their right fielder with someone that could give them similar production to Youk, all the production they would need to replace is the crappy production they got from right field last year- and they could find someone cheap enough to do that. Hart would just be more likely to be able to do it for a couple of years for the Sox than Youk would.
I guess my idea just stems from the fact that I believe what we saw last year IS what a typical Youkilis season looks like if he’s playing third base. He just plays too hard for his body to handle that position well.
I'm just looking as
more of let’s see where the team is come June or July. If RF is still a problem, which until we know what that situation by who they pickup in the offseason, we really don’t know what the production will be from
there, and if Youkilis is having a better year that would get us a lot more than just Hart, maybe a pitcher and a RF, than that would be a better trade than giving up Youk straight riight now. Meaning overall the team would be better.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 28, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I think the point is to swing
Youk for Hart to free up the younger Reddick/Kalish to be swapped for pitching. If you don’t take a step back offensively and take a step forward defensively and pick up some pitching to boot plus save some money – that’s the types of deals GMs should be making
yes exactly
and also frees up money that we’d otherwise be spending on right field and can now go towards pitching- seeing as Lowrie/Aviles could handle third defensively just fine.
I think you could accomplish
freeing up Reddick, because Kalish has little value right now only because he missed a lot of last year for pitching in another way. Try and sign a guy like Cuddyer. He could be a right handed bat who could play more than RF, he could fill-in at first if Gonzo needs a DH day, or he could DH against lefties if we lose Papi. I have no problem trying to trade Youkilis but I think it’d be a better trade during the season, where if Youk is having a better season, the haul the Sox could get would possibly be greater than just Hart. I have nothing against Hart, he’d be a great Red Sox player, but if you could trade Youkilis for Hart and Greinke or Marcum, I’d do that in a hearbeat (no pun intended) but right now Youk is still one of the best offensive players on this team. Also looking at the pool of third basman, there’s no body close you could get in terms of production of Youkilis. So keeping Youk and signing Cuddyer, would make this team better because you could free up Reddick for pitching, and not lose a good offensive player at position that is harder to fill in this off-season.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 28, 2011 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Youk at his peak
wouldn’t get us Hart and Greinke or Marcum, that would be a crazy haul. I think he’s been around long enough that his value isn’t going to change dramatically over the course of this season (unless he gets injured again)
Personally, I don’t think Cuddyer is good enough to warrant the amount he’ll get paid. I’d rather go the reclamation route than that.
Cuddyer was just an example
Beltran could also do the same thing, except play first on Gonzo DH days. My point is why rob Peter (take a possible huge offensive year from Youk) to pay Paul. The team would be better off trying to sign a FA in RF that would free up Reddick for pitching then trade away a player they can easily afford and don’t have any replacement that could give them production he gives them. If Middlebrooks had been called up when Youk got hurt or during September and showed something I would say trading Youkilis would be smart, but the cost/benefit analysis right now doesn’t make sense to trade him when the deeper FA position is OF not third baseman.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 28, 2011 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, I mean, I see your point
I just think there’s limited free agent dollars to go around, and I’d rather see the team spend them on pitching- on guys like Oswalt and Bedard, as well as Papelbon and Papi- than on right field.
Middlebrooks certainly isn’t close to ready. I think third could be handled just fine by Lowrie/Aviles though, as that’s really the position that they’re both best suited for.
Lowrie's hurt more
than Youkilis is and I think Aviles needs to be used as the utility guy. I would almost argue that letting Papi go would be smart, with Youkilis coming off the injuries the last two years, you could keep Gonzo, Pedroia, Ells, fresher by having almost a rotating DH. Save the money that you would pay Papi and spread it to pitching like you said.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 28, 2011 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah, that's another perfectly viable and reasonable way to go
I personally hope they don’t let Papi go, as he’s my personal favorite player- which isn’t a baseball reason- and because I think he’ll be a more productive offensive player than Youkilis- though Youk probably fits the needs of our lineup more-
I think that one of the two will be there, but I’m doubting both.
I do think that if they let Papi go, the best thing to try would be to have Lavarnway DH most of the time and backup catch, with Youk DHing when he is catching. That’d free up an extra roster spot as well, which would be excellent.
I totally
agree with you about this. Having Lavarnway DHing means if a guy needs a day off, stick Lavarnway at Catcher for the game or you have a big bat on the bench, Lavarnway or the player who needs the dayoff.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 28, 2011 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions
This essentially is my logic too.
I hate to trade him away, but I just don’t see his value getting any higher for the Sox either. And, at the end of the day, I’m not sure he’s the best solution at 3B, assuming we bring Big Papi back.
Of course, if they let Papi go and bring Youk back as a DH that can spell 3B and 1B… maybe that makes some sense, he rebuilds some value and we trade him after an injury free season.
However, I think the best solution is the deal BZ suggested for Papi, and trading Youk to someone willing to give us good value for the potential he represents playing 1B for their team. Brewers probably make sense, and Hart might be a good deal.
What about signing Sizemore, now that the Indians declined his option? Is he a LHH or a RHH… I’ve forgotten.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Nevermind then.
Like the way he plays the game, but not if he’s not a RHH.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I doubt clubs are going to look at Youk's body of work
and go with last season as his norm, especially if you move him back to 1B. The fact he’s only got one season on his contract might actually be a selling point to some teams looking for a nice fill-in for 1/2 years
The only way I see the
Sox trading Youk is if they could get a pitcher of the caliber of Ervin Santana, Cain, Danks, Floyd, and the others that are rumored to be moved. If it was just a Youk for an above average pitcher straight up, I think they would do it.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 28, 2011 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you've valued Youk a lot higher than the rest of us have.
Something tells me the front office sees this the way BZ, Wolf and I do… he’s a fan favorite, so you don’t trade him for scraps, but if you don’t make a trade this offseason and get some equal value back for him, you’re just begging for another year that he breaks down, forcing you to decline his option and watch him walk away for nothing in return.
If we could get a player like Hart back for him this season, gain similar offensive production from that player, replace Youk at 3B with Lowrie/Aviles and make another move by the money saved in RF by Hart (whether trading Reddick or spending more on SP, our true need), then it’s a win for the Sox.
I’m not sure it happens. I’m not sure I want it to happen – I love Youk and the way he plays for the Sox. However, I think this is the last chance we have to get value for him, by trading him to a team (say, the Brewers if they lose Fielder) that wants to put a premier slugger at first base for 2012 and is willing to gamble that his production at first base in 2012 is much better than his recent, injury muddled past.
I’m not as sure that you’ll find the same trading partners at the deadline, or that even an MVP caliber season to the trade deadline (say, like Youk’s 2010 campaign) translates to additional value for him. You’re also gambling that he has another injury early in 2012, and all that value evaporates…
I’m not saying I want to trade him, but I’m saying for the right deal, the right value in return (and, at this point, that probably isn’t a SP), it’s a deal the front office should make.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
What about my scenario from not too long ago.
Trade Youkilis to the Braves for a minor league pitcher and two pieces to go to San Diego for Chase Headley. The pitcher from Atlanta doesn’t have to be one of the big four, just someone the brass can point to and say “it wasn’t Youk for Headley.”
Actually, come to think of it, I wonder if we could swing a Youk and Iglesias for Jurrjens and Headley trade, I don’t know if the Braves are still looking to deal after sending Lowe to Cleveland, but I know Jurrjens was rumored to be on the block.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 31, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure Atlanta is a good match for Youk
They have Freeman at first and I’m pretty sure Chipper is gonna be back- not sure Youk has all that much value to anyone looking for a third baseman anyways.
Didn't Chipper say at the start of the year he was retiring?
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 31, 2011 6:00 PM EDT up reply actions
He said in August
That he will definitely be back for the last (guaranteed) year of his deal. They aren’t really a good fit for Youk.
by The Name is Dalton on Oct 31, 2011 9:16 PM EDT up reply actions
My opposition to trading Youk is
two fold. First, trading him creates a void at third base. Read this piece by Alex Speier and you’ll understand what I mean: http://www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2011/10/28/no-time-get-chippy-why-red-sox-are-unlikely-tr. There’s not a 3B available who can give you those numbers. Second, I think the fact that he has come off not one but two injury shortened seasons his value isn’t what it was at it’s peak.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 31, 2011 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions
That's exactly why he should be traded now
with his play style, it’s more likely that if he stays at 3b he’s going to get hurt again rather than be healthy all year. He should be sent to a team in need of a 1B, where he has less chance of injury.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 31, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm kind of thinking of the old investment adage...
“Never try to catch a falling knife.”
I think Youk’s best years are behind him, but I’m hoping someone will gamble on moving him back to first base because he was in the top five in the MVP (more than once in the last five years?).
Again, this is one of my favorite players, but I think the injury history isn’t going to get better if he keeps playing at third base for Boston.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
If the Sox were a National
League team, I do think he would be traded. But because of the DH spot in the line up, which I think will be open because Ortiz might get a better offer or the Sox could just decide not re-sign him, the Sox can keep Youkilis and protect his body by having him DH a lot this season. His bat could still be in the line up, but his body wouldn’t be getting beaten up a lot.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 1, 2011 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions
So, when the Sox resign Big Papi...
… since he’s the best DH in the game, a fan favorite, and likely to come back for exactly the kind of offer BZ has suggested…
Will you swing over to our camp at that point?
You seem so hung up on the production Youk can offer at 3B, but it assumes he’s healthy. The injury from first base was a freak injury when he fouled a ball off his foot (or am I mixing him up with Pedroia… torn ligament in his thumb from a HBP?)… a little less so with the injury this year.
I agree on one thing… the Sox will likely only have one of Big Papi and Youk back in 2012, and the argument is there that Youk’s big RHB is a bigger piece in this line up than Big Papi’s LHB. However, I find it hard to believe that they won’t work out a deal with Big Papi, making Youk’s liability at third base a real concern for 2012.
Maybe I’m wrong… we shall see.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I don't know if signing
Ortiz is such a lock. The Blue Jays have money to spend, and they need a LHB to put with Bautista. Unless they get Fielder, which could happen, I think they will overpay for Ortiz. The Red Sox have the leverage over Ortiz, they can offer him a short term deal, and if chooses to accept it, than that’s great. If the FO was concerned with the fact that there are fan favorites they would have re-signed Jonny Damon. But if he doesn’t they can just move on and use the money on pitching, which is what this team really needs. Even when Youk wasn’t healthy for the whole season at third, as laid out in the Alex Speier article, other than his average, he was still at the top or near the top of most major offensive categories at third base. None of the replacements can give the Sox that, healthy or not. Even if Ortiz comes back, I could see the FO saying to him that they want to have Youkilis DH sometimes to protect his body. Having Ortiz as a pinch hitter would be absolutely scary. My point about keeping Youk is three fold. As I said, no replacement can give his production. You would intentionally weaken a key spot just because he might not stay healthy. If Youk’s injuries happened in April or May, that would make sense, but his injuries have happened later in the season. He’s played 102 and 120 games the last two seasons respectfully. The second point is the fact that I don’t know how valuable he would be to another team given the injury factor.that we could get something as useful as Hart. The final point is the FA pool of outfielders is fairly deep, so the Sox could sign one and than include Reddick in a package for pitching. That way they maintain the overall strength of the team.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 1, 2011 10:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Also,
add on the fact that the Brewers could sign a first baseman. None that would give them the same production Fielder did, but because of that fact, I think they would want to hold on to Hart because they need to keep some offense.
by aubatron2011 on Nov 1, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
If he gets hurt the spot is weakened anyway
And the “if” in “if he gets hurt” is the same “if” that applies to players like Grady Sizemore, Carlos Guillen, Ben Sheets, and Erik Bedard, it’s less an “if” and more a “when” and “how bad.”
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.
Well, I'm not sure I quite put Youk in that category yet.
However, I am certainly concerned about his ability to put in a full season at third base.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
He got hurt playing
first base too. He was out longer last year than he was this year. If there was a way to replace his numbers at Third that he gives the Sox, than I would say trade him. But the FA pool of third basemen sucks, and the trade pieces, other than D. Wright, who’ll cost an arm and a leg, aren’t much better. One could argue that behind Buchholz, the second most impactful injury to the Sox was Youkilis, because it drastically shortened their line up, and while the pitching sucked, maybe they could have slugged their way to a win or two with him in the lineup.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 31, 2011 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with a lot of this,
I think the one thing that could change your let the young guys play aspect is the compensation from the Cubs. If we get an outfielder who is similar to Reddick, I could easily see him being used in a package to acquire a pitcher via trade.
the only guy they have that would fit that bill
is Brett Jackson, who is their top prospect and we won’t get
We might not get
Brett Jackson, but with Kalish in the fold, if we get a guy similar to Reddick, who maybe projected to reach the Majors in a couple years, then Reddick will be expendable. Because I think the Sox will sign a RH RF to platoon with Kalish.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 27, 2011 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah I just don't think that guy exists in the Cubs system, at least that I know of
besides Jackson. Maybe Vitters if he is moved to the outfield and suddenly excels. In any case, certainly not someone they can rely on making the majors in a couple of years.
I also see
Reddick being expendable, just based on the fact that the Sox will most likely sign a RH RF. I think they believe that Kalish is the better overall player, but the fact that he got hurt last year, and the Sox are Lefty dominate in in their line up, they want to sign a Willingham or Ross, like Bob suggested.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 27, 2011 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree they'll probably find someone right handed who can at least platoon in right
I don’t think either of those guys are fits though. Willingham’s bat would be great at Fenway, but his atrocious defense in our very large right field scares me. Ross isn’t great offensively, but was especially bad against lefties this year, so that kinda counters the whole point of getting a right handed bat.
I do agree with you
about Willingham and Ross, but that’s who they may have to sign. I think people last year overlooked two things when it cam to the trade deadline. First was the injury to Kalish. If the Sox had a healthy Kalish, when Drew gets hurt, Kalish would have been called up, and Reddick would have been traded. The other was the fact that Gonzo had been coming off shoulder surgery and despite the fact they had signed him to a megadeal, that wouldn’t have prevented the shoulder from getting hurt, therefore they had to keep Anderson, because there was distinct possibility that Gonzo would get hurt again. His shoulder clearly got weaker as the season wore on. Now that they have a healthy Kalish, and a full off-season for Gonzo, I think that Reddick and Anderson will be shipped out.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 27, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
If Ross is the only real RH bat they could sign
Then I wouldn’t even bother unless it is very apparent that it was simply a fluke that he did badly. The whole point to a RH bat is to hit LHP. If he can’t do well at that, they would be far better served to get Reddick or Kalish at bats against left handed pitchers. If you are looking at Reddick or Kalish as a RF of the future, they have to learn to hit LHP decent enough to start every game. They won’t learn unless they do it.
I do hope they shop Reddick and Anderson aggressively should Reddick be healthy and/or they get a RH bat that CAN hit LHP.
by The Name is Dalton on Oct 27, 2011 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not saying that Ross
and Willingham are the only options, but I just think the main issue for this team being pitching, pitching and more pitching, the money they may have have for RF could be limited. They not only need to find a fill in for Lackey, but Dice-K. I think one of those spots will be filled via trade, but the pitcher they acquire will need an extension most likely, and they will try and sign an Oswalt, Jackson-type to a one year deal because Rannaudo hopefully will be ready for 2013. Unless they could get a guy like Quentin in a package deal with one of the White Sox pitchers, I think they will be comfortable having Kalish as the primary RF, with a complimentary RH bat.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 27, 2011 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I was responding to this part where you did mention them as being guys they MAY have to sign.
I do agree with you about Willingham and Ross, but that’s who they may have to sign.
I know you’re not saying it definitively, but I’m just saying if Ross was the only option then it’s a bad option. Personally, I think Willingham will cost $6-7 million or more a year and is a Type A free agent so will cost draft picks. Not a deal-breaker, but for a platoon guy I’m not sure. Ross is type B but I think it would be a waste of money. Kubel and Ludwick are type B’s but I don’t know enough about them.
I agree it will be all about pitching moves, specifically starters. I’ve said that many times before.
by The Name is Dalton on Oct 27, 2011 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Kubel hits left handed, but
I do think Ludwick is a possibility because they interest in him a few yars ago at the deadline. I read a little while ago that Kalish is pretty much fully healthy right now, so I definitely think unless there’s a setback, I think he’s going to be the starting RF and Reddick will be part of a package for a starter, not going to predict for who, but a team that doesn’t value high OBP or desperately needs a cheap option in the outfield are possibilities.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 27, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Good to hear about Kalish.
Yeah it’s always tough to predict at this point who will be available for trades down the road.
by The Name is Dalton on Oct 27, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
There's always that one
deal that you say “Where did that come from?” like the Beckett deal. I think the Sox are going to be involved that deal because I think the players they have available may not be special right now, but we haven’t really seen them in a big enough sample size, and there’s always the possibility of getting another team or two into the deal as well, so while Reddick and/or Anderson may not be the sexiest names involved in the deal, they could be a supplement.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 27, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Although
This last sentence of mine was a bit misleading:
I do hope they shop Reddick and Anderson aggressively should Reddick be healthy and/or they get a RH bat that CAN hit LHP.
What I meant was that I hope they shope Reddick and Anderson if KALISH is healthy, or they get a good everyday RH hitter in RF (which I don’t see them doing).
If they shop them, I hope they get starting pitching because I’ve said before that getting rid of those two really makes the most sense if they get starting pitching back.
by The Name is Dalton on Oct 27, 2011 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
trade with Theo
I would package up lars and Josh for the RH hitting corner OF of the Cubbies. Yeah I am talking about Alfonso Soriono. Good roto DH/OF, not as fast as he once was ,but case still hit the cover offf the ball and it would piss off the Yankers something ferice.
Jeffrey M Melhorn
can barely play left field
certainly not right, and especially not at Fenway. Also cannot get on base and makes $18 million the next three years.
It wouldn't piss the Yankees off.
Quite the contray, they would love it if we made that kind of move.
Give up two of our prospects for a guy who would provide very little value and will cost a fortune for the next three years. That makes no sense.
by The Name is Dalton on Oct 27, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
no worries on the spelling
I just dont think giving up Lars and Josh that would matter long term. If were gonna pay papi the same amount for his DH services why not pay Alfonso. Plus he can spot fill in the OF when Carl, Ells or Adrian need a day at dh.
Also this is the Red soxs not the Pirates Marlins or what ever team needs to pay attention to payroll. I know it’s seems like alot but the owners own what now a soccer team raceing team maybe even a competitive girls badmitten team.
I know his numbers recently have kinda sucked but he hasnt had protection around him like he did in NY and Tex. But his numbers could be just as good if not better then JD for the same price.
Jeffrey M Melhorn
They still don't print their own money at Fenway
So payroll does matter. It’s easy for us fans to sit here and say we can sign anyone but we can’t. We wouldn’t be paying Papi to DH for $18 million a year, we would probably be paying $10-12. And Papi is a much better hitter than Soriano is, and actually has fan and clubhouse appeal.
JD Drew played very good defense while he was here and still had good OBP. Soriano has neither of those things going for him at this point in his career. And Soriano makes $18 million for the next three years, a few million more than JD Drew.
His numbers haven’t sucked because he hasn’t had good hitters around him. Soriano has had Aramis Ramirez and before last year Derrek Lee around him for his years in Chicago. That’s not an excuse for him. His numbers have sucked because at this point, he kind of sucks. He makes $18 million for the next three years! I don’t know how you could look at him, and then look at our pitching and say that we are better off paying 50% more than our current DH (the highest paid DH in the league) for a guy that is half as good.
That money can go to pitching. Which was our problem.
It’s not a good idea. Giving up Lars and Josh doesn’t hurt us, but absolutely WASTING them on picking up an overpriced, underperforming player does hurt. Those two guys could go in a package to get pitching, or at least someone who can provide some sort of tangible value. Someone not named Alfonso Soriano.
by The Name is Dalton on Oct 31, 2011 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I agree with no Soriano,
if we wanted to go the defensively challenged RH RF, guys like Cuddyer, Willingham would only cost money, not trading two prospects a player that has probably one of the worst contracts in baseball, when this team has a lot of big contracts, and has an obvious need for pitching, pitching and more pitching.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 31, 2011 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
We should NOT lose ground
On defense in RF just to add more offense to a team that led the league in most offensive categories. We never saw a problem in RF because of JD until DMac and rookie Reddick showed how big an error or misjudged carom can be in that toughest of Fenway positions. No to any defensively challenged player, including Cuddyer, Willingham and all others being foisted on the team by media in search of a RHB. In fact, Reddick has learned to play the position very well, Kalish may be an even better defender, and Linares may be the best good fielding RH power bat of any FA. In fact the Sox crushed lefty pitchers and IMO the need for a RHB in RF is ambit disingenuous. With the additions of Lavarnway, Aviles, maybe Linares to PD, Youk, Scoot, Lowrie and lefties who hit lefties well like Ells, Gonzo, Papi, Reddick, I just don’t see the urgency of Defensively challenged RHB RHB.’
by GerryT on Oct 29, 2011 9:00 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Ludwick?
Maybe they take look at Ludwick for a year and see if he gets his stroke back. Could be a nice buy-low deal.
I think this, with a Reddick/Kalish back up plan is another good solution in RF.
Which probably means none of the things we’re thinking of will actually happen…
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Crawford in RF
Whats the chance we see a position swap? He’s obviously being wasted in LF. Yea i know he doesnt have the arm but there is something in baseball called the cut off man.. I dare not say it but Soriano in fenway’s LF?…dude has pop and the avg could be blamed on low BABIP…
he reallllllly doesn't have the arm for right field
like, reallly doesn’t have the arm. And please don’t even suggest Soriano. That’s as good an idea as when the Angel traded Mike Napoli and Juan Rivera for the privilege of paying Vernon well’s contract.
Evidently Linares is fully healthy, is a very good, athletic outfielder with a big, big Righty Bay that is reported to be ready. Reddick, Kalish and Linares could easily be RF, 4th OF and 5th OF.
Kalish looks to become our Trot Nixon and
add another good baserunner to Ells, CC, PD, Scoot & Aviles. Reddick, IMO, is being undervalued. He has better defense than Bloomquist, Cuddyer, Ross, Willingham and already hits as well or better, except he is still developing his HR stroke, which is projected to come. In 2013 he will have adjusted to the pitching adjustments. Of everyone he has the most experience and success in defending RF and was mentored by JD himself (two Georgia boys) in 2011. Both have acceptable splits vs lefties. Linares is DH powerful and also a better defender than the FA’s and could become that RHB, a minor need in the scheme of things. With Reddick as an experienced anchor in RF, The Sox could get Kalish and Linares ready for 2012 in the offseason and ST. About $1.4M could deliver RF, RHB, 4th and 5th OF, each with more offense, defense and longevity than the FA’s at 3-10m each. I hope Ben thinks out of the box, thinks good defense, thinks long term, doesn’t spend for past performance. Cuddyer is the most expensive of them because he also plays 3rd and 1st, but in reality not as well as Youk and Lowrie, and he can’t match Reddick’s defense in RF. Besides, Cuddyer belongs on a Twins uniform.
by GerryT on Oct 27, 2011 2:14 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
all are still at that point
where they could potentially contribute a lot of possibly almost nothing. Kalish looks like a good player, but spends an awful lot of time hurt just from his style of play- and not just this last year. Reddick has established his value as at least a useful 4th outfielder but has yet to prove that he’s anything more than that (I imagine he’ll get some degree of a chance next year, here or otherwise). Linares has done well in a very, very small sample over here and has looked impressive, but we still really have no idea how he can contribute in pro baseball. He’s getting old enough that he needs to pretty much put up numbers or disappear at this point.
So I think they’ll have some veteran righty on the team to add to the pool. Probably not someone as expensive as Cuddyer.
we need a shake up
I’d be trading Beckitt (who i believe is the ring leader…of our clubhouse fiasco…and he had a better than expected year…..so what better time to dish him ) and packaging him with Ellsbury whose value is at a all-time major high (and we are gonna be held for ransom by Boras anyways)…….so,.trade Ellsbury,Beckitt,Papelbon(after we sign him) and J. Iglesias(not sure if his batting can make the jump to the majors?…..but some major league teams will drool over him)……. let’s say………>>>drum roll<<<…… to the White Sox( as they have a need for a closer because Salas is being converted to a starter anyways)…….for Quentin-RF,Danks-SP(we need a second lefty and injury prone Bedard isn’t the answer plus Danks had an off year…..so his value is lower than normal…),M. Thornton-RP and Al. Ramirez-SS…….I think Papi(i still love him is due for a major decline)…..move Youkilis to DH to alleviate his wear and tear and extend his career,and he can man 1B and 3B too boot……and make a play for Chase Headley-3B/LF in SD via a trade who then can man 3B……Aviles can be our sub in the infield……Bard can close with Aceves and M.thornton as your right/left…8th inning guys…..CF can be filled with a guy like Cody Ross ……..and when the Lackey injury thing plays out(we can address it then)….
you have just suggested that we trade in our very good team
for a mediocre-at-best team. Congratulations.
Also, if you think that a trade of Ellsbury, Beckett, Papelbon (and by the way, you can’t trade a just signed free agent until pretty well into the season, but I’ll ignore that for now), and Iglesias for Quentin, Danks, Thornton, and Ramirez is a reasonable thing that could actually happen, I would like some of the drugs you’re taking, please.
your funny wolfy
I use Whiskey…….I pay monstrous support payments to my ex……drug entltlements are for the rich!…
I hope they do none of this
None. Except maybe get Headley. If they get Headley I would rather they move Youk for pitching.
The rest? No. Please no.
by The Name is Dalton on Oct 27, 2011 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
You have shamed my Headley love.
I don’t want him anymore now…
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 27, 2011 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Not a fan of Cuddyer
And I really don’t get why he seems to get mentioned so often.
He has one skill only, hitting lefties, and even that is something he does well but not spectacularly. He’s barely above replacement level against RHP (.331 career wOBA) and worse than that defensively. He turns 33 before next season.
The instant the bat slips against LHP he becomes a backup OF’er who is mediocre at the plate and terrible in the field.
"We’re the Sox. Not Apple Sox. We ain’t no Barbeque Sox. We’re the Red Sox.’’ - David Ortiz
Not only this
But I believe the twins have made an informal offer (since free agency isn’t officially open) of a 2yr/16 million (total) deal. So to get him away from the team he has always played for you are looking at either playing more than $8 million a year or more than 2 years. Neither of which is a good recipe.
We need starting pitching.
by The Name is Dalton on Oct 27, 2011 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Oct 27, 2011 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Good Point
although there are very few good hit/good field guys who mash lefties. Willingham is similar to Cuddyer but he would likely come cheaper. Ross is younger but with less of a track record. You could probably eke a decent platoon out of Reddick/Ross without too much of a defensive drop-off
The platoon
will probably be Kalish/and whatever RH bat they pickup. I think Reddick is going to be used to get pitching.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 27, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
I think if Reddick is gone
the right fielder is going to just be whoever they get, no Kalish. Remember, the beginning of 2011, they started him at Pawtucket because they wanted him to get more seasoning there before they viewed him as ready- he then proceeded to really struggle in AAA up until his injury. Now when spring training starts, he won’t have played for nearly a year and he won’t have had any success for well over a year. At this point, Kalish is actually 2 or 3 steps back of where he was at the end of 2010.
I think if whoever is in right field struggles (probable as they probably won’t get someone great) and Kalish starts off hot, he’ll be up soon, but I have a hard time believing Kalish has any legit shot of starting the year in the majors.
You might be right
but I think the FO views Kalish as a better player then Reddick.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 27, 2011 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Long term, I think plenty of us do.
However, I agree with Wolf. The signal they sent by starting him in the minors in 2011 suggests they don’t think he’s ready to start in the majors, and losing the whole season to injury doesn’t give me a lot of confidence we’ll see him starting in RF on Opening Day 2012.
Like Wolf says… by the end of May? Maybe. Starting in RF for Opening Day 2013? Hopefully.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
I just think right now
Reddick’s value may not be higher, and the Sox would be wise to try and package him along with Lars Anderson to try and get some pitching. Some people have suggested trading Youk for pitching, but I don’t think you’d get a whole lot back for him because the fact that he has ended his season with injuries the last two years, and this season he didn’t have his typical numbers.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 27, 2011 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree, Reddick's value may be at his peak.
Unless he suddenly has an Ellsbury like breakthrough in 2012…
Not sure whether Lars has muh value any more (though, we nearly got Rich Harden for him and a PTBNL…), but maybe packed with Reddick would be enough for some pitching?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
It is not popular but..
I say keep Wakefield.
Face it, there is not much out there in this year’s FA class. Wake is relatively cheap, stays healthy, eats innings, and can either start or pitch out of the bullpen. Yes it took 7 or so games to get from 199 to 200 but two of them were Bard’s fault.
by ThoughtsAndSox on Oct 27, 2011 12:15 PM EDT reply actions
He eats inning and poops them out
right there on the field
And one other things I would do
Throw a whole bucket of money at Dave Duncan of St Louis.
by ThoughtsAndSox on Oct 27, 2011 12:19 PM EDT reply actions
If Duncan comes here, LaRussa comes here
I do NOT want LaRussa in Boston, unless we’re publicly shaming the Cardinals in the World Series.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
DFA Rev Halofan, The New York Yankees, The Tampa Bay Blue Seats, Carl Crawford, John Lackey, Darnell McDonald, Dave Magadan, Tim Bogar, Buck Showalter, Dan Johnson, Hawk Harrelson, Jonah Keri, Murray Chass, Mark Sanchez, Micheal Vick, Jared Allen, Jerry Jones, Al Davis, Rex Ryan, Rob Ryan, Trent Dilfer, Heath Evans, Cris Carter, Vuvuzelas, The Chicken Dance, Lady Gaga, Justin Bieber, Stephanie Meyer, and the entire fucking city of Philadelphia.
by TheLoneDavid on Oct 27, 2011 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I LaRussa elects to retire
Duncan has to work for someone else anyway. Might as well be in Boston.
by ThoughtsAndSox on Oct 28, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions
LaRussa will never retire
150 years from now, he’ll still be managing.
Duncan’s been around a long time too. He might also call it a day when TLR does.
Wow... in light of this morning's news, care to retract?
Of course, I’m stunned that he’s retired as well. Trying to get Duncan to take over for him in Saint Louis, kind of like Parcells retiring with the Jets to put Hoodie in as the head coach before someone stole him away?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Right on with almost all
$12 mil. × 2 years for Ortiz must get the job done and while many will talk about the diminishing cost/value of the DH position, it is really a factor of most teams financial restraints. Papi is the greatest DH of all time. Ortiz is a must get for a couple of years and this should get done.
Papelbon I view as another must get, but this will be more difficult. There will be teams (Phillies) looking for a stud closer that has shown the ability to perform on the biggest stage, so this will not be easy or cheap.
I like Cuddyer and his veteran presence may help. I don’t have a feel for his RF defense. Another route is to look at Ludwick for LF or RF and move Crawford and his speed to roomy Fenway RF.
I expect the Sox will have interest in Harden for the #4 spot since they almost traded for him during the season. The Sox, along with every other team will take a hard look at Oswalt and his health. If his medicals check out he will be a prize and teams like the Ranger or certainly the Yankees may overpay for him. Are you fogetting about Jenks? Maybe we all should.
Bye, Tex and Wake. You were both great Red Sox.
My primary concern is pitching.
And specifically, starting pitching. That really was the source of our meltdown in September although run support did play a part. They were constantly giving up runs early in the game, and constantly letting leadoff hitters on which limits your options on how to approach hitters.
Our offense overall was pretty good last year, good enough to win several of the ballgames that John Lackey tried desperately to lose. Trading Ellsbury, Youk, Lars Anderson, or Reddick/Kalish only makes sense if we get back starting pitching. Getting a long term SS would be fantastic, but it was not the problem with this team. Getting a RH bat in the RF would help, but it was not the problem with this team.
Free Agent Pitchers:
- Oswalt: Love the idea of getting him for a 2yr deal with a 3rd option year that vests at a certain # of innings. Even if it is around 8-10 million a year. He is a stud even at his age, an innings eater, a veteran, a fast worker and I believe good at getting ground balls. However, I see him sticking with Philly unless he gets a much better offer elsewhere.
- Garland: Again, another guy who I believe is more of a ground ball pitcher.(could be wrong there) If we can get him on similar timeframe deal (2yr, 3rd year option that vests on innings) at a cheaper rate (say 4-5 million or less a year), I like him as an option. Innings eater, not spectacular peripherals but I would slot him as #5 guy. Again, if he is cheap enough.
- Harden: Not crazy about him, but the Sox obviously had interest in him.
- Bedard: Offer him only 1-2 year deal, but don’t expect him to pitch more than 15 (MAYBE 20) starts. Don’t plan on him being a #4 guy. It’s a recipe for disapointment.
- Sabathia and Wilson: I would avoid them, as they’ll be big money.
- Edwin Jackson: Personally, and this might not be popular but i would look elsewhere if possible. With Boras, I think he pushes for and might get a 4 year deal, and will still probably make 8-9 million a year. He is considered inconsistent with a number of scouts from different teams, and the fact that he’s played for 6 years by the time he is 28 is evidence that teams just get frustrated with him.
Both came off injury seasons, but before this year both had nearly a decade of consistently reaching very high number of innings every year. The NL to AL issue is a concern, but we can’t just toss aside every NL pitcher as an option. Instead when looking at the NL, I think we look for veterans.
by The Name is Dalton on Oct 27, 2011 1:36 PM EDT reply actions
Matt Cain is able
go get him now dont wait just sign this kid and he’ll eat innings and pitch way better then any of our 3-5 sp’s
Jeffrey M Melhorn
that would be great
but, the Giants are trying to extend him. And I bet with Posey back, they’re gonna want to go for it this year, so I’m finding it hard to believe that they’ll let him go before the deadline at the earliest.
Plus
I would have to think that there are teams that could (and would) offer some better packages than what we could offer. Could be wrong on that, though.
by The Name is Dalton on Oct 27, 2011 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Not saying Cain is
coming because I do think he’ll be staying in San Fran. Like Wolf said, they are trying to extend him, and with Posey back, if they get one other bat, they probably will want to keep him and go for it again this year. But there is always the three team deal that could get him here, but it’s a long shot.
by aubatron2011 on Oct 28, 2011 10:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Cain's great but he's not a good fit for the Sox
He’s an extreme flyball pitcher whose style is ideally suited for the cavernous parks of the NL West. Cain and Fenway would NOT go well together. To say the least.
The pitching market is such shit this year
Insane trade proposal alert:
Some combination of Youkilis/high level prospects to Oakland for Gio or Cahill. We all know how much Beane covets (or used to covet) Youk. Cahill and Gonzalez may be aiming a little high but this rotation needs some form of stability. Beckett/Lester/Buchholz is a good 1-2-3 but there are so many question marks (even in Buch…I think we’ve established that ‘10 was aided by unsustainable peripherals, but back problems are so debilitating, especially for someone who’s success lies in repeating his motion pain free).
Gonna be an interesting offseason either way.
We all know how much Beane wanted Youk
but that’s not necessarily true anymore. He badly wanted Youk when Youk’s skillset was undervalued because he was undervalued. Now he is aging and starting decline while being paid an amount that is relatively cheap for a team like the Red Sox but would be about 1/5 of the Athletics’ payroll. They certainly don’t seem interested in spending any money until their stadium situation is resolved one way or another, and if they are going to move, chances are that they won’t be going for more expensive veterans now.
If the A’s do decide to move Gonzalez, it’s going to be for prospects, prospects, and more prospects.
That's a very good point
Having a payroll like this we tend to think that guys like Youk are a bargain. They are, relatively, but to a small market team thats a lot of money tied up in a declining 32 year old.
It seems Acevas will get his break, so right now it’s Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Bedard, Acevas with Tazawa, Doubront, maybe Miller or Wake in the wings. That’s a solid starting place. I agree the Sox will go for Harden but it makes sense that he will begin the year in the Pen as a long man and spot starter. I’m hoping they go for Oswalt, would not be surprised if they went for Darvish who would cost far less and offer more than CC or CJ per research by mmmmm. This sounds strange after all the angst and media hysteria, but IMO the Sox are so strong as to need just minor tweaking, with or without Pap & Papi, including pitching, hitting, defense; and they will come to ST as the most dedicated, conditioned, no-no nonsense team in baseball. Oswalt, Broxton, Whomever, are just insurance.
by GerryT on Oct 27, 2011 2:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I would like to see them get Oswalt for a couple years, and Garland. I’m not sure Bedard will be back next year. They may want him but a lot of teams are going to want him because he is going to be cheaper than Oswalt or Edwin Jackson.
by The Name is Dalton on Oct 27, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree with Oswalt, maybe Garland, and I hope they try to get Bedard too.
With all of those arms, it looks like we might have too many (especially “when” Dice K is able to come back from his surgery), but I think 2011 was yet another year to show that you can never have too much pitching.
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
Yep
I agree. We can never have too much pitching which we both agree on.
Hey, if it looks like Dice-K will be back before the trade deadline, and we have Beckett, Lester, Clay, Oswalt, Garland and Bedard and all are healthy and pitching decently? Hang one out on the trade table and try to fill another piece. Chances are, one or two of those guys will need a stint on the DL.
by The Name is Dalton on Oct 27, 2011 7:21 PM EDT up reply actions
3-team deal?
I have a strange, unfounded intuition that a 3-team deal is in the works. The Padres and the Red Sox each lost a GM to the Cubs, and compensation is the proverbial PTBNL.
Could it be we get a young pitcher from the pitching-loaded Padres via the Cubs and the Padres get a hitter (Reddick?) in the reverse direction from the outfield-loaded Sox?
Crossing my fingers that you're right on this...
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
that really just sounds like it would be a
Padres-Red Sox trade. Not seeing how the Cubs are involved other than stealing our executives.
Since they owe both teams compensation?
Although, come to think of it… why would the Padres need to give up a pitcher in this scenario?
I thought we’d never win it all. And then we went down 0-3 to the Yankees in 2004, and I thought it was the end of the world.
Wait ’til next year!
The Cubs could kick ancillary prospects in both directions...
… yielding a better primary player swap between the Sox and Padres.
Tampa Bay Rays Championships: Still Zero
"Playoffs?!? Don't talk about playoffs! Are you kidding me? I just hope we can win a game!"
- Jim Mora, seeing through space and time to describe the 2011 Boston Red Sox
by nuthinboutnuthin on Oct 31, 2011 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Padres-Redsox trade
Ha ha! Now that he points it out, I see what wolf9309 means.
I guess I was thinking of something like the Sox accepting a lesser player from the Cubs as compensation for Theo in return for the Cubs sending something better to the Padres to sweeten a deal (or vice versa) between Sox and Padres.
oops
(or vice versa) should come after Padres
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