Trey McNutt, You Say?
by Marc Normandin on Oct 18, 2011 9:22 AM EDT
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PrintThe compensation talks between the Red Sox and Cubs are ongoing, and the reasons for this aren't even clear anymore. Depending on who you ask, it's because the Red Sox are asking for too much, the Cubs want to send nothing, Larry Lucchino hates Theo Epstein, or, the simple-but-not-as-fun, the teams just haven't agreed on the value of a general manager with one year left on his deal yet.
Brett Jackson is off the table. This is about the only consistent thing that has been uttered across different writers and outlets. This should come as no surprise to you, dear reader, given this was written about Jackson about a week ago in this space:
The Cubs might be loathe to give up this prospect, but Boston could use the outfield depth with J.D. Drew departing, Ryan Kalish losing all of 2011 to injury after a 2010 that told us he wasn't quite ready for the majors yet, and Josh Reddick bouncing back-and-forth between being the answer and a question. Problem is, as my Baseball Nation colleague and Bleed Cubbie Blue czar Al Yellon points out to me, Jackson likely won't go anywhere for the exact reasons that Boston would want him. So, you'll just have to pine for him from afar.
Brian MacPherson mentions that the Red Sox have shifted their focus to pitching prospect Trey McNutt instead. McNutt is not one of the prospects that was covered last week when we first began to discuss compensation seriously, and honestly, it's because I thought he would be untouchable in an organization that could use pitching. That might still prove to be true, but with Boston not budging on their need for a prospect or two in return for Epstein, McNutt might end up as the perfect At Least It Wasn't Brett Jackson prospect the Cubs would move.
McNutt is 21 years old, and stuck at Double-A for all of 2011. In his 110 innings there, he has struck out 6.3 per nine while walking 3.5 per nine, but remember, he's very young for the level, and just one year ago, struck out over 10 batters per nine across three different levels.
According to Kevin Goldstein, McNutt "fell apart mechanically" in 2011, but mechanics can often be fixed. He has thrown five innings in the Arizona Fall League, walking three and striking out zero, but it's just five innings, so it's tough to glean anything from it. He doesn't have the ceiling of the kind of prospect we might want for Epstein, but it's pretty obvious that no amount of stalling is going to get the Sox a Vitters or a Jackson, or even a Cashner. McNutt, who is both talented and a project, might be the kind of return you see Boston getting. Given how much he dominated in 2010, and his youth, it could be just the kind of guy you want the Red Sox asking for, though, especially since the Cubs might be more willing to part with him given his recent struggles. We could be very thankful for McNutt in two-to-three years, if he and Anthony Ranaudo were both major-league ready at the same time. That's a lot of "if," but that's prospects.
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Definitely a solid haul...
…if the Sox can get McNutt. He was never as highly considered as Casey Kelly, but he 1) wasn’t that far behind and 2) his struggles at Double-A at similar ages are reminiscent of Kelly. McNutt’s about two months older than Kelly, for what it’s worth. Kelly had real struggles in Portland in 2010 before an up-and-down but mostly good season at San Antonio last year.
by UltimateCranston on Oct 18, 2011 9:53 AM EDT reply actions
Struggles are for far different reasons
McNutt’s was due to injury.
Casey Kelly comp
I not sure that’s a good comparison. Kelly was drafted out of HS in the first round while McNutt was drafted in the 32nd round out of community college, way different expectations. Other than age, I’m not sure they are all that comparable. Kelly has a quality changeup/offspeed aresenal while McNutt appears to be more of a power pitcher, with less of a feel for pitching (at least so far). Kelly was normally described as having a good feel for it, despite his relative lack of experience as a pitcher. McNutt seems like a better than average ‘lottery ticket’ type prospect. Showed some flashes, needs work mechanically and consistency wise. Doesnt come with high pedigree, so in theory it doesn’t ‘feel’ like the Sox are asking for too much. If he was high round pick it would feel like they were asking for more, as opposed to ‘just’ a 32nd pick.
If
McNutt had been hitting mid-90’s the entire year at Shelton State, he would’ve gone significantly higher. Draft pedigree has some meaning to it, but at the end of the day, it comes down to stuff. His stuff bloomed late, and thus, only 2 teams were actively in on him.
The Cubs gave him a 6 figure bonus to buy him out of his college commitment (off the top, I don’t recall where he was going to transfer to … want to say Alabama). That’s a bonus for a, I think, 5th-6th round pick. Furthermore, this was before the Cubs started spending more, as this was a pre-Ricketts draft pick.
McNutt would solidify pitching in the minors, as right now there is not much to speak of there. Would be good to have any prospect there right now.
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McNutt
His issues this year were due to the fact that he had two injuries to deal with. He had blister problems for most of the season. In June (or late May, too lazy to check right now), he had a rib injury. When he returned, he went through some control issues in June/July, before squaring that.
At his best, he has a plus fastball that, as a starter, can work in that 93-95 range. He has a 2-seamer he can go to when he needs the ground ball, although it’s certainly not an elite 2-seamer. But due to velocity and solid enough movement, it’s a plus fastball.
Last year, he had a more consistent breaking ball that showed plus potential. It still occasionally flashed this year, but all indications are that the injury issues, combined with the lack of work as a result of it, hampered his consistency on it. I’m not too concerned on the breaking ball, to be honest. It was nasty when I saw it this summer.
The changeup showed progress this year, but again, lack of work impacted his potential to really work on it. Haven’t heard anyone say that it is anything more than decent, with perhaps a tick above average potential.
I wouldn’t be too concerned about his mechanics. They should fine with more work. One thing to keep in mind about McNutt – he didn’t come into his power stuff until his draft year, so he’s really still learning how to harness it. He was a late bloomer in that regards.
He’s largely viewed as a top 6 prospect in the Cubs system, and I imagine he’s probably roughly in that 5-8 range for you guys as well.
As a Cubs fan, I don’t want to move him. I think he was over-hyped last year, but is now sneaking under-the-radar a bit. That said, he also wouldn’t be untouchable to me, unlike some other Cubs fans, so it would depend on the other components to a deal (would Epstein bring people, what would the quality of the 2nd prospect be). The Cafardo piece suggested Carpenter as a mid-rotation starter, but as a note, he was shifted to the pen last year, and while I had hopes for him as a starter once, I think that’s where his future probably lies, as he can bring the heat (triple digits as a pen arm). Not sure why Cafardo said a scout said McNutt threw harder – even as a starter, Carpenter’s velocity was in the same range as McNutt’s.
It behooves both sides to get a deal done, so I imagine it’ll eventually get worked out.
btw Marc
McNutt’s ceiling is plenty good, IMO. Whether or not he reaches it is the question, as it’ll come down to his breaking ball going from flashing plus potential to consistently being plus, along with the changeup being consistently average at least. All that said, if he reaches his ceiling, we’re looking at 2 plus pitches, decent 3rd pitch, decent-solid command. That’s typically the scouting write-up for a 2/3 starter. Sure, it’s not an ace … but if he reaches his ceiling, that’s a very good asset who provides a lot of value. Even if he fails to reach his ceiling, there’s still a good chance that he’s a mid-rotation starter or a late inning.
FYI Most Sox fans don't take Cafardo seriously
Neither should anyone else.
Thanks for the info. I’ve recently heard that in the AFL McNutt showed good velocity (94-96) but struggled with location of his pitches and struggled with his changeup.
by South Coast Ghost on Oct 18, 2011 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions
really?
I admittedly don’t read Boston sports news as much anymore, but when I lived there, I had been under the impression that Cafardo was well-respected. Perhaps that was more towards his tenure than anything.
As for McNutt, I don’t want to over-sell him. I’ve actually said on some Cubs sites that I have some concerns about him (and as noted, I think he was over-hyped last year). There still is work to be done, but what I wanted to point out was that his ceiling is fairly good.
I'll take McNutt. He's not Matt Garza
But right now, I’ll take this. It’s realistic. It’s fair.
The Red Sox suck, and I am the dirt that was sucked in, I am a dirty.
I'm narcissistic, nihilistic, and arrogant. That's me in a nutshell.
The Cubs have to be one of the worst run and dumbest front offices
in professional sports.
Are they really nit picking on prospects? I guess if my team hadnt won for 103 years I might be a little more motivated to get Theo.
Here’s what I hope happens. If the Sox can get McNutt and a few other prospects great. I would of preferred Sean Marshall but that is fine.
IF the Cubs balk I want the Red Sox to say “ok thanks but no thanks. We value Theo far too much to hand his contract rights over to you for chump change.”
Then watch the Chaos when the Cubs have to go running to San Diego and get FLEECED by the Padres for Jed Hoyer.
Maybe then the Cubs will learn their lesson.
This should of been done last week, but of course the Cubs have to act like morons and I guess dont really understand contract law.
re:
I think both sides need to compromise, but to suggest that this is solely on the Cubs is reading too much into the Boston media.
Simply put, both sides need this job done. For the Cubs, you don’t want to go to Plan B. For the Red Sox, you don’t want Theo around. Not because of 7 million (which I’m sure saving that is nice), but because it would be an undue burden on Ben Cherington in his first year as GM.
The issue right now is the value of compensation because simply put, what the Red Sox have demanded so far hasn’t been requested before. Name another front office or managerial compensation move that netted high caliber talent in baseball. Off the top, I can’t think of any manageral or front office compensation move that netted major league talent, and I legitimately can’t think of one that netted high caliber minor league talent. It’s possible there is one, but if so, it’s the exception. The chances of the Cubs getting fleeced by the Padres for Hoyer? Quite slim in all honesty, as the Padres would simply bump Byrnes or McLeod to GM, knowing they moved a guy who wasn’t happy being there.
Now that said, the Red Sox are well within their rights to hold as long as possible, but at the end of the day, getting this deal done makes too much sense for both sides. If the Cubs ask for McNutt and another high caliber talent, I think that’s a bit too much. As a Cubs fan, I’d bite the bullet on McNutt if that’s the cost at the end of the day, but it depends on the rest of the deal.
You are right, its not just the Cubs fault
Its just the idea that Cubbies believe they can hold out for a guy under contract with the Red Sox and given permission by the Red Sox seems Effing ridiculous.
If you don’t want to pay what we are asking for, which is reasonable after what CWS got for Ozzie, then don’t ask for permission.
In truth the Cubs should of just gave the Sox Sean Marshall and then they would of kept their farm system and the Red Sox have the option to resign Marshall after 2012 or take the 2 draft picks. That would of been fair and worthwhile for both sides.
I do hope the Cubs fail again though. Cubbie fan tears tastes oh so good this time of year…they warm up the soul.
there was no way major league talent was going to change hands
that simply wasn’t going to happen. One could easily argue that the lack of top talent switching hands for a major league executive or manager suggests that the Red Sox are being out of line. Either way, it simply doesn’t matter at this point what the Sox wanted, because it simply wasn’t realistic to ask for established major league talent with this type of move. It’s partly why you had those articles early last week about how MLB was watching to make sure that this trade was fair and didn’t set a new precedent.
Btw, the White Sox got two very middling prospects for Ozzie. Simply because they were top 10 prospects in the Marlins system doesn’t mean much. The Marlins system right now is regarded as one of the worst in the game. McNutt, I think you will find, is a far higher caliber of talent than any of the two guys the Marlins gave up. Marinez is a power pen arm. You can find guys with mid-90’s heat and mediocre secondary pitches in most systems. I like Martinez a bit better, as he has a shot to be a starting 2nd baseman, but he profiles more as a utility guy. McNutt’s ceiling is more of a 2/3 type starter.
I thought this would get done by tonight, but it’s clearly going to drag on a bit. The Cubs have essentially put out their next bet – Theo is getting “promoted”, and they are going to hire a GM to work with Theo (Rosenthal reported on what had been speculated). The implication, to me, suggests that they’ll try to hold the line a bit longer in Theo talks, since they can hire a GM and pick Theo up next year. The Red Sox, like Cafardo noted, are going to hold firm, but outside of Lucchino wanting to punish Theo, I don’t think anyone really buys the idea that the Red Sox really want him back next year at this point.
Guess this may drag past the World Series. I have my doubts that Bud will want a big news like this to interrupt the World Series.
You might be correct about the prospects and what Theo is actually worth
my problem is with the Cubs attitude = they have leverage. Which they dont.
If we go to the nuclear option in a negotiation the side with the most power wins and the Red Sox have the most power.
Its not about retaining Theo, its about getting fair market value v. prospects, what a GM is worth in compensation and who ultimately has the ultimate nuclear option. Retaining Theo, while inconvenient, does nothing to the Sox. Not signing Theo is death for the Cubs. They sold out and now everyone knows, so there is no other option. Any other negotiation between the Cubs and another MLB franchise would be ridiculous. Why would that team even negotiate? I would demand B. Jackson, McNutt, Cashner and whomever and if the Cubs would balk I would tell them to walk to the next MLB franchise.
As for Sean Marshall. It makes sense bc the Cubs really lose nothing. They lose at most 2 picks that wont help them until after 2015, and no guarantees they even make it through the system.
Marshall represents the easiest way to appease both franchises and also the least destructive player to leave the Cubs, in terms of their future.
I never believed that Garza was a real option. Sox could not ask for Starlin Castro bc he is arguably the best player on the team, but Garza just sets the negotiations high, giving the Sox a lot of room to negotiate.
Really McNutt is the 2nd best option for both.
the reality on leverage is that
it deals with perception, as it often does with any business transaction. Both sides believe they have leverage to a certain extent and they are trying to sell those beliefs, when in actuality, the amount of leverage each side has simply isn’t as high as either side seems to think.
The Red Sox have leverage not because of the PR hit the Cubs may take, but because Epstein is the most valuable asset in this transaction. He’s the desired asset, and they can, if they choose, sit on his contractual rights for a year. This is clear leverage.
The Cubs leverage is a bit more complicated. It lies in a mix of past precedence and perception, moreso than any real, tangible leverage, in the way the Red Sox have it. The past precedence issue has been noted above. The perception issue is that the Red Sox simply have a lame duck year of Epstein ahead, and bringing Epstein back, even if they “bench” him for the entire year, is not as viable an option as Red Sox fans may want. Any reasonable business would want to attain something for an asset if they know they will lose the asset in the near future.
The debate becomes what is reasonable. Leaving aside the Lucchino factor (I don’t think anyone has denied for a 2nd the talk that Lucchino wants to stick it to Theo), there simply isn’t anything to really compare this against. Furthermore, the secondary aspect that may cause the Cubs to have some leverage is the fact that the Red Sox are, and I’ve lived there/worked there through much of this, getting a bad rap for how they burn people when they leave. When you factor in that the Cubs are “promoting” Epstein, and SOP is that teams don’t block promotions too hard (although the Marlins are keeping a lock on Dan Jennings), the Cubs are hoping that pressure of some sort exerts itself in that regards.
Of course, one could argue that the Red Sox have enough bad publicity right now, part of it self-inflicted, so they may not care about that aspect. And add in that a top baseball job is hard enough to come by so that there will always be some solid candidates, that may be pressure that the Red Sox do not feel/do not care about at the moment.
If this goes to your “nuclear option”, what is going to happen is simple – the Cubs will hire a GM and wait on Theo for a year. The GM will likely be someone handpicked by Theo – I have no doubt the reason that some of Theo’s former LT’s are being talked about, instead of guys like Rick Hahn/John Coppolella, two of the three Plan B’s to Theo originally, is that Theo and Tom discussed these guys. Then, they will hire him as President of Baseball Ops. after the 2012 season.
Would this be bad? Sure, but I’m not sure you are reading the tea leaves that correctly on this. Both organizations have utilized their local media very well in taking these negotiations public. the narrative out of Chicago has largely been about the Red Sox extravagant demands (and the Red Sox probably countered by asking Cafardo to do that blog post today). The fan base would be disappointed, but I don’t think they would be greatly disappointed as tom Ricketts has done enough to bring about some good will from Cubs fans. If there is disappointment, it would like more with Ricketts, but right now, they have spun an effective narrative out there that I don’t think is as bad as you think. Meanwhile, to suggest that the Sox would have no impact belies the power of the media. There will be Theo stories that pepper up through the year, and if the Red Sox struggle, there will be a lot more Theo stories. That’s pressure that Ben Cherington really doesn’t need in his first year.
As for Sean Marshall, the Cubs aren’t going to be move him right now. Again, fair market value, which you discuss frequently, has, to the best of my knowledge, never netted another baseball organization a key MLB talent. Furthermore, a 2.5 WAR-3 WAR pen arm, and a pen arm that has been getting stronger (velocity is going higher) has solid value on the trade market, particularly when it’s a lefty with a good breaking ball and good splits. Add in that, many Cubs fans believe Carlos Marmol may not be long for Chicago, and Sean Marshall could be the stopgap closer. Money isn’t an issue for the Ricketts either, and the Cubs have a lot of money coming off the books, so keeping him around isn’t a concern. I don’t really think the Cubs will have that championship core next year and probably not in 2013, but it’s not as if the NL Central is that strong (Cardinals have a lot of concerns this offseason, Brewers have one more year with their pitching in place, but Fielder is likely gone, Astros/Reds/Pirates don’t worry anyone that much) to warrant giving up on the season before it begins.
Anyhow, I think a deal will likely get done. I’m not against giving up McNutt, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the final deal didn’t include McNutt (Cafardo’s really doing a hard sell job for the Red Sox organization to say the Cubs system is devoid of talent, it’s a bit thin in the upper levels, but it’s deep and has a lot of upside talent in the lower levels). All that said, one thing several Cubs fans, including myself, have said is that, if we give up McNutt, Theo better be allowed to bring someone with him if he wants that person, and the rumors seem to suggest the Red Sox allowing 1 person to go, whoever that guy might be.
Scooter McNutty!
Talking dinosaurs, ftw!
NBA Officiating - Corrupt? Incompetent? Which is worse? Does it matter? It sucks.
Side note on McNutt
I felt like I should post it here. Granted, rankings are put to engender discussion, but since Gammons came out today and said Trey McNutt would be 25th in the Red Sox system (and said the cubs were bottom 3), I sent an email to BA to see what they thought. They basically responded that the Cubs system is closer to middle of the pack (which jives with what most Cubs fans think the system ranking should be, somewhere in the late teens to early 20’s), and that McNutt would be solid top 10 in the Sox system as well.
Keith Law agrees with that.
The Cubs system was ranked low going into the 2011 season, thanks to the costly Garza trade – did it have a good year to up its ranking?
actually
post-Garza trade, most people still had it in the late teens/early 20’s. It didn’t have a great year – some key injuries (McNutt is one, Whitenack was the early breakout but he had to undergo TJ), a few struggles, but the reason the system hasn’t fallen, and may have moved up, is that Ricketts spent big on the international market (with the main signing being Mark Malave) and spent big on the draft. That, combined with the signings from last year, has a lot of Cubs fans excited, as there’s legitimate, intriguing upside in the lower levels, both pitching wise and positionally.
My new theory:
This is taking so long because they can’t determine on who Theo can bring with him and if that should increase the compensation depending on who he is allowed to take. I’d imagine in a week they’ve been able to nail the price of Theo alone, maybe the issue is who he can take now.
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