Boston's Best Tools: Best Defender
by Mattsullivan on Jan 27, 2011 1:31 PM EST
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PrintBefore the 2010 season began, defense was the buzz word around town. The front office talked about the need to improve the team’s fielding and backed that talk up by signing defensive wizards Adrian Beltre and Mike Cameron. Unfortunately, the plan did not come together. Beltre was masterful at the hot corner, but Cameron and projected left fielder Jacoby Ellsbury were both hurt the majority of the season. Their replacements were woeful defensively and to make matters worse the Red Sox lost slick fielding second baseman Dustin Pedroia and first baseman Kevin Youkilis as well. All told, the 2010 Red Sox were a poor defensive team, rating 56 runs below average by the Defensive Runs Saved metric (
As 2011 rolls around, the Red Sox are once again hoping for improved defense. They have added the premiere left fielder in the game in Carl Crawford and shuffled the infield to accommodate newly acquired first baseman, Adrian Gonzalez. Their top fielder last season, Adrian Beltre, is gone, replaced by Youkilis, who shifts back to his original position. With an excellent starting rotation in place and a revamped bullpen, better glove work will be a key factor in run prevention. Whose glove will have the biggest impact though?
|
Name |
Pos |
|
|
TZL |
FSR |
UZR |
UZR/150 |
AVG |
|
Adrian Gonzalez |
1B |
4174 |
12 |
24.7 |
14 |
3.8 |
1.2 |
13.625 |
|
Carl Crawford |
LF |
3463 |
51 |
40.4 |
29 |
52.4 |
20.7 |
43.2 |
|
Dustin Pedroia |
2B |
3390 |
30 |
21.7 |
20 |
23.2 |
9.7 |
23.725 |
|
RF |
3072 |
-4 |
18 |
8 |
19.5 |
10.2 |
10.375 |
|
|
Kevin Youkilis |
1B |
2493 |
18 |
6.3 |
7 |
13.6 |
8.4 |
11.225 |
Defensive statistics are full of problems. It is simply the nature of the beast. Among the baseball stats community two main approaches have developed for analyzing defense. The first system, represented by Sean Smith’s Total Zone system, uses play-by-play data to estimate the number of plays above or below the average from the historical norms for each hitter and pitcher. The second system, represented by Mitchel Lichtman’s Ultimate Zone Rating, uses data from Baseball Info Solutions detailing the type of hit and the area in which it was fielded to estimate the number of plays above or below average.. For our purposes, we will look at several systems and try to reach some understanding between them.
Shown above, I have two location data based systems (
The main problem with all defensive metric is the high levels of variation. For this reason, I have limited this conversation to players with over 1000 innings at each position. This has left out Jed Lowrie’s excellent work at shortstop (UZR credits him with 7+ runs saved in just over 700 innings) and Jacoby Ellsbury’s time in left (where UZR has him at 10.5 runs saved in 392 innings) Both of these players deserve mention, but the uncertainty around those numbers is too great to ignore.
Regardless, the answer is loud and clear. Carl Crawford is the best defensive left fielder in the game and possibly one of the greatest of all time. He has a substantial advantage in runs saved over Pedey, who gets the silver medal. The others aren’t even close. Crawford plays the easiest outfield position though and the average is affected by the many lead-footed sluggers hiding out in left field. By contrast, Pedroia is a top defensive player at a premium position and that is an important distinction. In 73 fewer innings, Pedroia made over 150 more plays. That is significant, but it doesn’t make up for such a huge gap.
The other three players here are all very good defenders. Adrian Gonzalez struggled last season, but has been very good with the glove at first. Two of the systems even prefer him to Youkilis, who is the best defensive first baseman in the league. The loss of Beltre will certainly mean a downgrade at third base, as Beltre is unrivaled there. Shifting Youk won’t have a huge impact at first base though, given how good Gonzalez is. Youk has been good at third in his limited time there and should be at least average, if not better, over a full season.
The outfield could very well be incredible next year. It would be hard for it much worse than 2010. J.D. Drew was the only outfielder to post a positive UZR last season. He will now team up with Crawford, Ellsbury and Cameron to create what should be a very good outfield. Beyond Red Sox fans, Drew doesn’t get much credit for his play in right. He doesn’t have the cannon of an arm associated with great right fielders, but he gets to many extra fly balls and that is really more important. If he splits time with Cameron, the platoon should be excellent defensively and boast the offensive production as well.
The 2011 Red Sox have added offensive fire power without sacrificing defense. In fact, they may be a very good defensive team. The hype surrounding their emphasis on fielding might have died down some, but Theo and
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Crawford is elite at an easy defensive position.
Pedroia is elite at an elite defensive position.
If Crawford could prove he could get it done in Center, then maybe. But I’m not sure I can put him over Pedroia at the moment.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 27, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
I felt the same way...
… and voted for Pedroia.
It’s not that I don’t know the type of fielder Crawford is. I do. However, playing LF in Tampa Bay (nevermind next year, in Fenway’s smaller LF), I just think is not as valuable as Pedroia’s defense at 2B.
Just my opinion.
I think that the stats for Crawford are overblown
Because of how generally incompetent his peers tend to be in LF. However, even with the inflated numbers, I think that Crawford’s defense is among tops in the league. The eyeball test alone shows how superb he is defensively.
Also, the fact that there is such a huge gap between Pedey and CC leads me to vote for Crawford as well. Even accounting for his inflated numbers as a LF, he still has Pedroia beat by 20 points by both statistical measures.
Pedey's good.
Really good. But I’m going to say Cameron’s defense in center is just slightly better than Pedey’s defense at second.
That being said, despite our new mantra of run prevention, neither Crawford or Cameron will be starting in center field this year. This team confuses me.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
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by TheLoneDavid on Jan 27, 2011 5:34 PM EST up reply actions
is 2nd base considered an elite position??
i thought it kind of goes left to right, with lots of exceptions and other factors.
OTM threaded the other day about walker playing 2nd base as a no-glove all bat.
nah it's kinda like
shortstop
second base
third base
first base
for the infield. Middle infielders are the premium ones, hence why there’s a lot less offense from there.
Many ways to answer "who's the best defender".
1 – Who is better at his position than the average at that position? Youk at 1B, but because of the nature of 1B, doesn’t save as many runs as other defensive standouts.
2 – Who saves the most runs above the average player at his position? Pedroia, because 2B has so many more fielding opportunities than 1B, OF, P, or C.
3 – Who’s fielding ability would be hardest to replace at that position? Crawford, because top defensive talent at LF is so much rarer than at other positions.
Aren't 1 and 3 similar?
And isn’t Crawford the answer to both.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 27, 2011 2:24 PM EST up reply actions
All of the metrics above
measure runs saved above the average. They are, therefore, leveling the playing field between different positions as much as possible. A 1B who saves 10 runs isn’t more valuable than a LF or 2B who saves 10 runs. I honestly don’t see the difference between any of the three questions above. The best defender at his position? Crawford, The player who saves the most runs at his position above the average? Crawford, Hardest to replace? Crawford, but Pedey might be close on that one.
The one thing it is important to consider, however is that the league average at each position is directly related to the talent level at each position. If the average is dragged down a general lack of fielding ability at that position, than you could speculate that a player at another position is more valuable defensively than someone who is further from the average. This assumes that your replacement level is actually above the average . This is actually true at times when considering LF and 1B. Many of the starting players at those positions are defensively poor and back up players are primarily defensive replacements (think Doug Mientkiewicz). That might be adding to Crawford’s dominance, but he is almost 20 runs better than anyone else in a three year sample. It is hard to negate that entire difference.
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by Mattsullivan on Jan 27, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
I understand what the metrics say, but I don't believe defensive metrics are as accurate as hitting stats.
So I’m stating my opinion that Pedroia saves the most runs (and got my vote in the poll).
I think Youk is more above average at his position than Pedroia is above average at 2B, but Youk does not save as many runs simply because of the nature of 1B in fielding fewer ground balls and the required shorter range in order to cover the bag, particularly with runner on first.
And I think Crawford’s ability is rarer, but not as far from the mean (if it could be accurately defined). To put it another way, I think Crawford has the highest standard deviation from the mean, but ti won’t translate into as many runs saved, particularly at Fenway.
All of the metrics above measure runs saved above the average at that position. A first baseman who saves 10 runs will save 0 runs at second, while a second baseman who saves 10 runs will save 20 at first.
Or thereabouts.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 27, 2011 5:11 PM EST up reply actions
Which you do mention
But you seem to be suggesting all positions are created equally in difficulty. This is not the case. A center fielder is responsible for more ground and often has farther to throw. Ditto a shortstop and second baseman.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 27, 2011 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe I didn't word it well, but that's not how I meant it.
I meant #1 to measure quantity (e.g. number of hits),
I meant #3 to measure percentage (e.g. batting average).
Pretty sure that if Ells were in left
where he could get better reads on the ball, he’d be only slightly below, if not at Crawford’s level of defense.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
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by TheLoneDavid on Jan 27, 2011 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
Didn't make a single error at DH last year.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 27, 2011 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, come to think of it...
… didn’t he play some first base during our interleague games? I vaguely recall him being surprisingly nimble and making some good plays.
Did he make any errors while fielding last season?
Tells you a lot about the Twins system at the time huh?
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 27, 2011 9:07 PM EST up reply actions
Big Papi drives that Veyron like a boss.
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by TheLoneDavid on Jan 27, 2011 5:37 PM EST up reply actions
In almost 1000 innings at 1B
Ortiz has a -3.6 UZR, -4.3 UZR/150, -3 DRS, and -1.3 TZL.
So your saying he's pretty good, right!
- Matt Sullivan
"I would change policy, bring back natural grass and nickel beer. Baseball is the belly-button of our society. Straighten out baseball, and you straighten out the rest of the world." Bill "Spaceman" Lee
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by Mattsullivan on Jan 27, 2011 11:36 PM EST up reply actions
I think he would have been a lot better than people seem to think
I’m not going to say he can do well now, and perhaps as a full time DH he was able to be more productive with the bat, but I think he could have been an only slightly below average defender and great hitter.
LOL
So far, Ellsbury is outvoting Drew 2 to 1.
I mean, I don’t even know why Ells is one of the choices.
by OzTiger on Jan 27, 2011 3:17 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Put Ells & Lowrie on the list
because in small samples they have been excellent (that is Ellsbury in LF, not CF). I don’t know why anyone on earth would put Ellsbury over Drew, but hey- if that’s what the masses believe, at least we know.
- Matt Sullivan
"I would change policy, bring back natural grass and nickel beer. Baseball is the belly-button of our society. Straighten out baseball, and you straighten out the rest of the world." Bill "Spaceman" Lee
www.overthemonster.com
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by Mattsullivan on Jan 27, 2011 3:31 PM EST up reply actions
Well, it is only 3 votes total...
So probably hard to read that much into it… two big Ellsbury fans, and Drew has been overlooked for years, even by Sox fans, for his defense in RF.
Put Ells in right, and it's probably not all that big a gap at this point. Not sure it's not even in Ellsbury's favor.
Drew has slowed. Ellsbury has been fast enough to make up for his bad reads some depending on the actual size of the outfield. Of course, Fenway’s right field is large, but still.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 27, 2011 5:15 PM EST up reply actions
Except I don't think Ells could make the throw from Right to 3B
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by TheLoneDavid on Jan 29, 2011 4:48 AM EST up reply actions
True
But JD’s arm isn’t anything special these days either.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 29, 2011 10:09 PM EST up reply actions
Then we know what we must do.
Cut off Lowrie’s arm and graft on Reddick’s.
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by TheLoneDavid on Jan 30, 2011 3:13 PM EST up reply actions
Intelligence test
At a 2 to 1 rate, voters are failing.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Youk
I think his glove will have the biggest impact on the team, be it positive or negative, and I was voting as such.
Best defender period? Pedroia
I survived Jim Harbaugh week
by return2greatness on Jan 27, 2011 4:56 PM EST reply actions
Me Too
The question was ‘key defender,’ which opens up room for a lot more subjectivity. That’s where my vote for Youk came. There seems to be the most perceived variation in expected performance from him.
3rd
I rank 1st and 3rd as harder to play than short and 2nd. At 3rd the reaction time is shorter and usually the distance of the throw is longer. At 1st, the defender is involved in more plays, though some are harder than others. Holding a runner on while defending against a smash from a left-handed hitter isn`t all that easy. Not to mention digging throws out of the dirt. Texeira makes all of New York`s infield exponentially better. 1st and 3rd basemen also have to charge more bunts.
Maybe the reason short and 2nd are considered more difficult is that they turn more double plays, but the corner infielders also start them, with longer and more difficult throws.
I think there's a logical reason why
when the BoSox used to play away against an NL team and they need Papi’s bat that they play him at 1st, rather than 2nd or short. Or NL guys like Howard or Fielder, who are not allowed to DH, also play 1st.
I’ve read somewhere that in descending order of defensive importance, this is how the positions rank:
1) Catcher
2) SS
3) 2nd, 3rd, CF
4) RF
5) LF
6) 1B
by OzTiger on Jan 27, 2011 5:40 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
That looks right
Though i believe 2B is slightly above 3B and both out rank CF. That is the basis for positional adjustments in the WAR calculations.
- Matt Sullivan
"I would change policy, bring back natural grass and nickel beer. Baseball is the belly-button of our society. Straighten out baseball, and you straighten out the rest of the world." Bill "Spaceman" Lee
www.overthemonster.com
www.spacemanspancakes.wordpress.com
by Mattsullivan on Jan 27, 2011 6:38 PM EST up reply actions
LF and RF are generally equal, too.
The arm component being the only difference, realistically.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 27, 2011 7:52 PM EST up reply actions
papi is left handed
no one plays lefties in the infield except for 1st base.
i think it’s against the law or something
that's something that never occured to me
but is generally true, and makes sense- for a lefty to throw to first, his body needs to be facing away from the batter (so the direction the ball is coming from).
sad but true
If you’re a lefty with no power, better hope you are fast so you can play CF. Or you can always pitch.
by OzTiger on Jan 30, 2011 7:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I don't really understand this logic.
But, seeing as I’m a righty I wouldn’t know the logistics of being a left-handed middle infielder. What’s the issue there?
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
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by TheLoneDavid on Jan 30, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
You can't get nearly as much behind your throws facing the infield as a lefty. Can't go cross-body.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 30, 2011 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
Ah, that makes sense.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
Official Baker of Red Sox Nation
by TheLoneDavid on Jan 30, 2011 9:20 PM EST up reply actions
Also it takes longer to make that strong throw as anything to your right you
have to completely turn. Im a lefty and have played every position except 3B. 2B isnt too bad for lefties, the double play can be done pretty quick. SS can be tough to the right side especially if the batter has speed. Never did 3B and never want to. I like catching though but the throw to third with a righty up can be problematic.
I'm having trouble deciding which...
… but I would think either 2B or SS would negate the lefty throw, much like it makes sense to have a lefty at 1B (where the glove leads towards 2B and the area the ball is most likely to be hit).
So, I guess, by that logic, a lefty SS wouldn’t be terrible. Right now, you have Jeter doing that running backhand stab to short LF and making that leaping throw back to 1B. Wouldn’t a lefty SS, with his glove hand in that gap, have an easier time getting to that ball, planting and then throwing back to 1B?
I know you don’t see it, but it feels to me like it shouldn’t be more difficult than what Jeter is doing on a ball hit to his right (gap between 3B/SS).
not really
because for a lefty to plant and throw, first he needs to turn his body to be facing away from home plate, it’s just an extra step and full body motion.
A lefties best chance to make the hard throw would be doing a total spin (to the right)
which would cause errors. Spinning around to the left might be quicker but its definitely a lot harder to get behind the throw, as your body has been going to the right. You should be able to reach more balls but would have a harder time getting to the ones up the middle. Turning the double play would be irrelevant as nothing really changes.
Second base wouldnt be too bad because it isnt such a long throw. Double plays are a little tougher. The best way I have seen a lefty turn a double play is run by the ss part of the bag. Receive it high and to the right of your head, spin to the right having the right foot cross the bag and firing. Tough part is 1. getting out of the way of the runner and your back is to first base.
Sorry, but that's just pretty empirically wrong.
Short and second don’t have foul ground to cover them on one side, and much more frequently have to make plays in the short outfield. The only thing that is harder to handle are line drives directly at the batter as compared to the ground balls which make up 95% of an infielder’s duty.
As for receiving duties, it’s just not that hard. It’s not.
This is why second basemen and shortstops who add weight and slow down play at third, and third basemen who slow down play at first.
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by Ben Buchanan on Jan 27, 2011 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
I think also the infield is going to take some time to get its groove for the season..
Much like Saltalamacchia has to work well with whomever is at SS and Pedroia for base stealers, and the range of Pedroia and Gonzalez will effect who can cover who in the hole between second and first, ditto for Youk’s range and the everyday shortstop. There are going to be some adjustments.
However the outfield should be very good, Crawford’s range should help Ellsbury, and I am curious how he is going to play Center, either deeper or more to right center…
Seriously
where is the lack of Drew love coming from?
I went with Pedroia but was torn between him and Drew. JD remains underrated I see even in here.
I think Drew is a great, great defender
but isn’t quite as good as he was before. I think Pedroia’s is more game-changing, although Drew’s is awesome. He probably would’ve been my third choice, after Pedroia and Crawford.
I think Drew is a great RF!
He doesnt look like he is making outstanding plays because he gets to them so easily. There are fans out there that actually think Nixon is a better OF than Drew because of all of the diving Nixon did. They dont really understand that Drew gets to that ball without diving.
I voted for Petey because of the importance of the DP’s he makes to the pitching staff. He has pretty good range and a strong arm for a 2B. He turns the DP pretty damn good too.
over the last three years, in RF
UZR150
Ichiro 10.9
Drew 10.2
Rios 9.6
Pence 8.7
Werth 8.1
It drops off quite a bit after those guys.
that doesn't make me wrong though
I just think an elite second baseman has a greater effect on the game than an elite RF.
There’s also other guys like Bruce, Upton, and Zobrist who would be up there if they’d been in the league longer.
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