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Around SBN: Newcastle Battle Injury Woes Ahead of Tottenham

Is there ever a time for the Red Sox to stop fighting?

Ahhhh, September.

It's the time of year (after maybe opening day) that every baseball fan across the country, regardless of what team they're rooting for, can look forward to.  Teams in competition have the ability to play their best team every day, using what September callups they want to bolster the troops, giving an occasional offday, and to rest the veterans once that elusive playoff spot is secured.

The teams that have been out of contention since day 2 (or even arguably, before) at last get a chance to bring up some fresh young players and see if they have what it takes to contribute to a major league team.

It's a spark of excitement for everyone, but this year, the Red Sox are stuck in a kind of purgatory between the two places and there is some question of whether it is time to do everything to try to get the team hot and race into that last playoff spot, or to cut their losses and evaluate a few more players for the future.

Star-divide

The Red Sox are, of course, used to the first option.  As essentially perennial contenders in this century, it is officially to the point where, as a Red Sox fan, it is a little disconcerting that we may be rooting for other teams come October 6. 

There's a solid argument for either approach, really.  Accuscore simulations show that there is a 3% chance at this point of the Red Sox making the playoffs, which is small, but may well be worth fighting for.  The fact of the matter, is that when it comes down to it, there may not be a whole lot of difference in the two approaches.

The reason for this is that, really, the way this year has gone, everyone who is likely to be coming up to Boston has already been there this year (Francona already said as much on WEEI yesterday).  The guys we would be seeing, if everyone had remained healthy, would probably be Saltalamacchia, Reddick, Kalish, and maybe even Navarro, and those are all guys who have already been to the majors.  The big questions for 2011 are also important questions to answer for 2010 if the team wants to comete:

-Is Saltalamacchia ready to contribute at the major league level? 

If he is, then not only does that affect the 2011 team, but it means that probably the best possible lineup in 2010 probably involves him catching with Victor Martinez playing more first base than anything else.  Lowell just hasn't been producing much at first base, and if the team wants to legitimately compete in the last month, he may not cut it at first base.

- Are Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish able to succeed against major league pitching at this point in their careers?

In a perfect world, Cameron and Ellsbury would have both put up similar offensive numbers to what they did in 2009, with plus defense throughout the outfield.  In the real world, between the two of them, they will have played less than half a full season, with some pretty unimpressive numbers.  In their absence, the outfield has seen much more than expected of Darnell McDonald, Bill Hall, Daniel Nava, and even Eric Patterson (all guys who, had the season gone according to plan, might have been in line for a september callup, but nothing more).  Kalish, after a hot start, has cooled down significantly, and Reddick has not impressed in the majors so far.  Both, however, have appeared to provide better defense than the other options and Reddick has been absolutely destroying the ball in AAA the last month.  If he comes up to the majors and can keep that up, not only is he worth looking at for 2011, but he would be one of our best outfield options for the remainder of the year.  Kalish, if he can overcome this slump, is probably a better outfield option than even what we'd started the year with.

-Can we improve the bullpen from within, or are we going to have to overspend on multiple free agent relievers this offseeason?

Obviously this has been an issue the whole season, and at this point, it's kind of a situation where we've got very little to lose.  Most of the bullpen has just been atrocious this year, but we've also gotten rid of two of the worst offenders.  At this point (actually from a point about 2 months ago), there's nothing to lose by putting in the rookies we know little about rather than the veterans we know will not contribute positively to the club.  This means, if we need a high pressure lefty until Doubront is back, Richardson should be getting this call because, while he has control issues, we have firmly established that Okajima is practicing to pitch for the 2011 home run derby.  MDC might as well have gone because, with the mop up duty that he had essentially taken over, there's basically nothing to lose by putting out a guy with some question marks instead.

-Will Jed Lowrie be able to be an everyday major leaguer, or is he going to be doomed to living on the bench?

This is a situation we haven't heard as much about as I'd like.  Lowrie missed significant time and action this year because of mono.  He took a long time recovering, which made a lot of sense; he lost a ton of muscle mass and it is not easy to get back into professional athlete shape after being practically immobile for a couple of months.  Still, at this point, it's been 6 or 7 months since he first disappeared in Spring Training, and his conditioning should be pretty well at the point where he should be able to play nearly every day.  I'm not sure if at this point, he's sitting frequently because he doesn't feel well enough to play frequently or if he is sitting because Francona wants to be extra cautious with him after the team essentially made his wrist injury much worse in the past.  I would like to hear which it is, however, because frankly, with the state the team is in, Lowrie is offensively and defensively the best choice to be playing at second base (or occasionally short if Scutaro needs a rest) every day.  I would just like to know what the situation is.  I still think he's the best possible shortstop for 2011, but if he can't get his conditioning back, he's not really a reliable option.

Anyways, these are a few of the questions that we should be starting to answer, not just for 2011, but for the remainder of 2010.  Basically, my main contention here is that regardless of whether the Red Sox want to say they're still in this or not, they should be making the same basic moves and trying the same things in either case, so they might as well keep trucking and fight until they win a playoff spot or are mathematically out of this race.  It doesn't matter if us fans want to say "it's over" or not, the fact is that they're going to continue to play to win and play the best baseball they can.

Feel free to discuss below.  IF you were managing this team, is there anything you would do differently, depending on whether you considered the team contending or not contending?

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the only other 2011 exploration we could do in September is to gauge

where Lars is.

Give him 70 AB’s and see. It won’t be worse than Lowell.

by cds7c on Sep 2, 2010 10:32 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't think Lars looks ready

I’d rather give those ABs to Salty to see where he’s at and move Martinez to first most of the time.
I figured Salty has a better chance of making some impact in 2011 but don’t like the idea of Martinez’ bat being out of the lineup.

by wolf9309 on Sep 2, 2010 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree

The chance of needing Lars vs. needing a catcher is much greater for next year. I’d like to see what Salty can do.

by brogshan on Sep 2, 2010 11:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

What's Lars' Rule 5 status?

That Rule 5 stuff is hazy for me, is it a factor here for Lars?

by cds7c on Sep 2, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

This year

he is Rule 5 eligable
he will be on the 40 man at the end of the season anyways.
For all rule 5 guys: http://wiki.soxprospects.com/Rule+5+Eligible+Players

2010 Red Sox Playoffs.... We Can Do It!
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Sep 2, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

Scutaro DEFINITELY needs a rest.

I really have to think that Lowrie has to be rested at this point in his recovery, elsewise Scoot would be taking some days off.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Sep 2, 2010 10:41 AM EDT reply actions  

At the rate, they're going now, Lowrie better be ready to be the SS in 2011

Because we’re seeing Lowrie ’08 play out with Scutaro in ’10.

As far as Lowrie being the best option, I agree with that sentiment: even if Lowrie cools off to an OPS of .750 to .800, he’s well ahead of the curve bat-wise for shortstops.

I’m pretty sure Lowrie’s being held back by Tito more as a precaution than anything else. He said he’s not feeling “worn down,” just the “daily grind” now. He could probably play a bit more than he is now.

Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell

by lone1c on Sep 2, 2010 10:51 AM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed

2010 Red Sox Playoffs.... We Can Do It!
"That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Sep 2, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions  

Play the youngters. Let them get experience in the bigs.

Let Lowell get ABs until he hits a HR, then let that be his last major league AB as an honor to his contribution.

Sit Scutaro and let’s see how Lowrie handles the most difficult infield position. Let Salty catch and see how he adapts to Fenway. Let Kalish see if he can work out of his slump. Let’s see if Nava can get hard hits into the outfield instead of infield singles and finding the lucky holes as he seems to do more than average. If he wasn’t needed in the pen I’d give Doubront a start. Maybe try Bowden once as well. Let Bard finish some games. Give Okajima the ball if the score isn’t close to work out of his troubles.

It’s time to work for 2011 and the off-season.

by dsharp on Sep 2, 2010 11:11 AM EDT reply actions  

I don't think that there's any question that Lowrie can defensively handle short

he’s a shortstop and was a very good fielder there before, the question is just if he’ll be able to play every day. So I personally don’t really care where he’s playing as long as he’s playing.
 Doubront and Bowden are unlikely to be in the rotation in 2011, so I’d rather see the guys that will be in the rotation get more chances to work out their issues. I don’t know if I’d be preparing Bard to be the closer because frankly, I agree with Francona that it’s more useful having our best reliever be the setup guy rather than the closer, in the more flexible position. I think Papelbon is around next year anyways.

by wolf9309 on Sep 2, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

I read somewhere yesterday that Lowrie was a tick below Scoot defensively @ SS

Which may be true, but that’s probably not considering that another year older, Scoot is on the decline while another year of experience and Lowrie is getting better at SS defense. For next year, it’s probably a defensive wash.

by cds7c on Sep 2, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

Even if the gap's still there

There’s still the difference on offense. Scutaro shouldn’t ever hit in the middle of the lineup.

Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell

by lone1c on Sep 2, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Get healthy for next season

Time to look ahead -

Yes, rest Scuatro by giving Lowrie more games at short. Depending on the issues, they may want to consider shutting Scuatro down early.
Nobody is coming off the DL to play this season. Let Pedrioa, Youk, etc. get healthy. OK, maybe they give Tek some games if he can come back, but that’s it.
Watch the inning count on Bucholz and Lester.
Normally I would add “play the kids” but they already are.

by Scoop1981 on Sep 2, 2010 2:48 PM EDT reply actions  

For Buchholz and Lester

Buchholz was already shut down earlier in the year, so his innings count is and will be nice and low (plus he pitched over 190 innings last year). Lester’s pitched over 200 2 years running, I don’t think innings will be a concern for them

by wolf9309 on Sep 2, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

Innings pitched isn't necessarily everything.

Total pitches matter too. Everybody in 2008 was talking about Lester’s alarming jump in innings pitched, without noticing that his pitch count wasn’t going up along with it. He was just getting through more innings.

Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell

by lone1c on Sep 2, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

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