Will Josh Beckett Be Better In 2011?

by Randy Booth on Sep 13, 2010 4:42 PM EDT in News

Without a doubt in my mind, this is one topic we will discuss a lot over the off-season: will Josh Beckett -- the former ace (see what I did there?) of the Red Sox -- be better in 2011?

The snarky answer from some (many) of you is, "Of course! There's now way he could be worse!" But this is more of a question if Beckett won't just be better, but return to his normal standards.

FanGraphs' Joe Pawlikowski writes that we should expect a better Beckett next season:

Lately Beckett has turned things around a bit. He’s not his dominant self from a few years ago, but that can’t really be expected at this point in the season. But even without top-notch stuff he’s still managed to strike out 28 in his last 25.2 innings, walking just nine in that span. Five of those walks came in yesterday’s six-inning, three-run performance against Oakland. His hit and walk rates, plus his BABIP, are all still above his career averages, signaling a continued lack of command. But he certainly looks better on the mound than he did earlier in the season. It’s an encouraging sign for 2011.

Pawlikowski makes the case -- albeit a not very convincing one -- that Beckett will rebound because that's what he's done in the past after bad seasons. Beckett certainly is the kind of pitcher that doesn't like to be embarrassed and this -- no doubt -- has been an embarrassing season for him, but that isn't enough to convince me that he's going to return to his norms. He will though, I hope, be better (let's shoot for that mid-5's ERA!).

While Beckett does have a few more games to pitch this season, have you seen anything out of him that makes you think 2011 will be better? Is he just too talented of a pitcher to be dragged down by this season? Is his badassness just uncontainable?

Sound off. This is the first of many times we will do so on Beckett.

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I vote yes

I don’t buy the theory that he’s going to try harder after a tough year though. That seems like a pretty weak reason. We’ve all seen the peripherals that indicate better results, and we’ve seen that his luck has been bad this year (which the poor defense/bullpen probably had a lot to do with)… The one thing I personally think is key is Beckett’s health. He has usually been a streaky pitcher, and it’s not easy to find a groove when you miss a month every year with back problems (or whatever else seems to ail him). Someone needs to get him with a pilates trainer so he can stay on the field.

by travben85 on Sep 13, 2010 4:52 PM EDT reply actions

well obviously

next year is an odd numbered year, he’ll pitch like he should.

by wolf9309 on Sep 13, 2010 4:56 PM EDT reply actions

2011 is an odd number, so absolutely.

"Every night I go to bed thinking about when I’m going to play again. I dream about playing at Fenway."-Ryan Westmoreland
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Sep 13, 2010 6:54 PM EDT reply actions

Josh Beckett

a pitcher that can only do well consistantly in the NL (aside from one year), who is stuck in the AL.

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by gizmosandy on Sep 13, 2010 7:25 PM EDT reply actions

The best part about offseason in OTM

is Giz’s signatures.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Sep 13, 2010 7:30 PM EDT up reply actions

Man, I really like Beckett

but I don’t know what to think about that guy anymore.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Sep 13, 2010 7:31 PM EDT reply actions

Hard to get worse

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Sep 13, 2010 7:45 PM EDT reply actions

Right on cue.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Sep 13, 2010 7:50 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm being serious

I hate meathead, but there’s no way he can do much worse than a flipping 5.83 ERA.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Sep 13, 2010 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm being serious, too.

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Sep 13, 2010 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I easily could've been far bitchier there

I went pragmatic instead.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Sep 13, 2010 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions

I had to go back to make sure you didn't copy and paste it.

The snarky answer from some (many) of you is, “Of course! There’s now way he could be worse!”

Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.

@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard

by Bloggy on Sep 13, 2010 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions

I skipped that paragraph apparently

Think I went right to the chunk of text after the page break.

Building Fenway from the ground up - Virtual Fenway

by Sean O on Sep 13, 2010 8:54 PM EDT up reply actions

3.80-4.00 ERA next year.

That’d be my bet. Right with Lackey. And certainly very good out of #3 and #4.

My question is if Clay performs like a #2. There are two ways for a young pitcher to go off a year like this. He can struggle when the BABIP gets a little higher and tailspin, or he can figure out that when the BABIP gets a little higher he’s got to use his impressive stuff a little differently.

Lester is a perfect example of the latter. Lets hope we get the same from Buck.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Sep 14, 2010 12:23 AM EDT reply actions

Agreed

He’s been mighty unlucky this year, it’s my belief that the peripherals suggest what the product should be, not the other way around. He’s pitching better than his ERA will let people believe.

As for Lackey, besides “loss of control” it’s hard to diagnose his problem, no idea what happened to him but if a pitcher can regress that much in one year for no reason, not too much of a stretch to believe that he can get that much better in one year for no reason and be back on par with the pitcher we expected.

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by Rogue Nine on Sep 14, 2010 10:06 AM EDT up reply actions

certainly unlucky

BABIP has gone up .050 while LD% has gone down from last year…

by wolf9309 on Sep 14, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

who's the pitching coach??

If the Sox stay with Farrell, why should things improve?

Beckett’s never achieved real greatness. He’s had a few good streaks, but they never last more than a few months.

Gosh I’m happy his contract was extended.

by RickD on Sep 14, 2010 1:14 AM EDT reply actions

why is it the pitching coach's fault?

I’d like to see that quantified. Besides, wouldn’t replacing the pitching coach make Lester and Buchholz bad all of a sudden?

by wolf9309 on Sep 14, 2010 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions

I was just looking at his numbers:

Year — BB/9 — K/9 — K/BB — H/9 — HR/9 — IP/GS
2007 — 1.8 —– 8.7 —– 4.85 —– 8.5 —– 0.8 —– 6 and 2/3+
2008 — 1.8 —– 8.9 —– 5.06 —– 8.9 —– 0.9 —– 6 and 1/3+
2009 — 2.3 —– 8.4 —– 3.62 —– 8.4 —– 1.1 —– 6 and 2/3
2010 — 3.2 —– 8.2 —– 2.58 —– 10.6 — 1.4 —– 6

Obviously his 07-08 where the best seasons, but what is noticeable, is that as his BB/9 goes up, his H/9 and HR/9 go up as well. I hope he can figure out his control issues. Theo Epstein compared this season to his 2006 season. Lets see.