Will 2011 Be Worse For The Red Sox Than 2010?
by Randy Booth on Aug 31, 2010 6:00 AM EDT
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I posted last night recent thoughts from Globe columnist Tony Massarotti regarding the current state of the Red Sox. Mazz, like always, wrote a column that could incite a comment even from a casual Red Sox fan, whether that be good or bad. Here's what really stuck out in my head though:
Remember: there is precedent for this sort of thing, thanks largely to the disclosures of "Feeding the Monster," the Seth Mnookin book that gave us a clear look inside the operating system of the Red Sox. In a meeting prior to the 2005 season, Theo Epstein warned team business personnel that 2005 and 2006 were likely to be transitional years for the franchise. That is something we should remember now. At the moment, 2011 projects to be worse than 2010, and something suggests that Red Sox officials know it.
Now what exactly does he mean by that? You know, considering he doesn't exactly back up his statement.
Is it because in 2011 every player will be one year older? Because that's the only thing I can really think of that is even halfway feasible.
To clarify, yes, there are some downsides heading into 2011 at this point, but that happens with every season. Adrian Beltre, the Red Sox's best player this season, will be a free agent. Questions surrounding the longterm contracts of two ineffective pitchers (do I need to mention the names Josh Beckett and John Lackey?) will weigh heavy. Questions if prospects are ready to contribute in 2011 will arise early and often.
But that is your typical offseason.
At this point, the positives far outweight the negatives. The Red Sox will have a lot of money flexibility with a few big contracts (namely David Ortiz and Mike Lowell) coming off the books. Flexibility, really, is the key to any good offseason and the Red Sox will have that. Not to mention, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz should only get better after another year in the bigs.
Considering we don't know how 2010 will finish and we really do not have a good read on 2011, is Mazz right? Is 2011 going down the same sink hole as 2010 is going down? Or are bright skies ahead?
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A precedent, but not a pattern.
You really can’t draw such a conclusion.
The main problem with this team was one thing and one thing only: INJURIES Yes, the bullpen was a really big problem, but if we have our main contributors on the field then you have to think that this is a hard team to beat.
We have a very respectable W-L record with a skeleton team. You have to think that next year’s team will not have the same injury problems (I mean, c’mon!) and we will be able to have more flexibility with what we want to do, with Lowell not taking up a roster spot, Lugo not tying up cash, more money coming off the books, etc, etc.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Mazz is probably right...
Addressing some of your points:
1) Do you really think Lester and Buchholz can only get better? Pitchers can vary more widely from year to year than hitters. Maybe this was the peak of performance for our two youngest starters. Lester, especially, has seemed to lose his best stuff in the second half this year.
2) I’d be more inclined to say Lackey and Beckett can only get better, except they’re older and Beckett has had injury issues. Their enormous contracts are unbelievably troubling, though.
3) Dice-K is, well, Dice-K – injury-prone and inconsistent from start to start much less year to year. He looks like a younger Wakefield except he can’t eat up Tim’s innings as well.
4) Wakefield may retire or move on to try to be a regular starter on another club.
5) Ortiz is worth bringing back at 5M, but will someone else open the wallet for the strong, but aging (sometimes looking really old), inconsistent, DH?
6) Beltre will cost a lot to re-sign, but do we have a better alternative at 3B? If not, drop-off. (see Lowrie below)
7) Will an aging Cameron be healthier?
8) Will Ellsbury still be around and, if so, stay healthy?
9) Varitek, the captain, may not be around. He was having a decent year before his injury.
10) Our best substitute, Bill Hall, will almost certainly move on to be a starter somewhere.
On the positive side..
11) Youk and Pedroia are bright spots as their production will almost certainly improve with a healthy season.
12) The bullpen really can only get better. It’s hard to believe it could be worse. Someone will be signed to shore that mess up.
13) Our starting AAAA OFs (Nava, Kalish, Reddick, McDonald) can only be improved upon. While capable backups, I can’t see them being counted on as starters. Someone else will be signed, or Ellsbury/Cameron will be cleared by the docs as being and staying healthy.
REALLY UNKNOWN
14) Lowrie shows promise, but he’s a drop off from Beltre if he plays 3B. Is he an improvement over Scutaro, who has been an capable, if unspectacular SS and leadoff man? (see Lowrie above).
15) Will the backup for 3B/1B be any better than Lowell?
16) Victor Martinez needs to return. No argument will be entertained on this point as no free agent C can produce as well.
16) Will the front office consider replacing 3B coach Tim Bogar? Please?
With 10 questionable negatives and only 3 or 4 positives, it’s hard to see improvement in 2011. Of course this could all change with a trade for an Adrian Gonzalez-type, a couple of good bullpen arm, and improvement from Lackey and Beckett.
and some of yours
1) Buchholz’ performance may not be sustainable (but very good is sustainable with how he has pitched), I haven’t seen Lester losing his stuff in the second half of the year. I’ve seen a terrible start from him, but other than that, I haven’t.
2) could be troubling. Beckett at least, can’t really be worse than he was this year. More concerned about them in 2012 and beyond, really.
3) Daisuke has actually pitched very well this year. I have the impression that the front office operates on paranoia when it comes to his injuries (DLing him because his arm was a little sore one day, etc). Really has pitched better than Wake ever did, as a starter (yes, except the innings thing)
4) he is on a two-year contract, so good luck with that, Wake. On the other hand, wouldn’t mind having that roster spot free with as well as he’s pitched this year
5) Ortiz is very proud and I think part of his pride is his place in the Red Sox franchise. I don’t imagine he has any inclination to go if he’s offered a real contract. If he does go, it’s not the end of the world, there are other people that could repalce his production (though I’d be sad to see him go)
6) could be. Can’t really make assumptions about it until we see what he wants/is offered. For now, isn’t a reason to think 2011 is worse.
7) yes, he has had a tear in his abdomen, which is fixable through surgery completely and is not an age-related issue. This is not an unknown any more than say “is Victor Martinez really a better hitter without his thumb broken?”
8) I can’t imagine any chance he gets traded when his value is so low. Again, broken bones, he has an offseason to heal, shouldn’t be a problem. You can make your own decision whether you think him being around is a positive or a negative…
9) He was having a great year at the beginning but was already quickly starting to fade. There’s other leaders on the team.
10) So? All anyone did this year was bitch and moan when he was in the lineup. He’s played way more than he should have this year, and he isn’t a game changer. His only real ability is raw power. I would argue that McDonald and Lowrie have been miles ahead of him as far as value.
14) the only reason there is any question about whether Lowrie is more valuable than Scutaro is because he hasn’t played a full season. We’ll see if he’s healthy when spring training comes around, but worst case, we still have Scutaro
15) Lowell has been atrocious. He’s hit horribly and is incapable of playing third base.
16)I agree this would be for the best, although there may be a catcher or two available through trade who would provide ecent enough production if his price in years was too high.
17) I can only hope.
Adrian Gonzalez is not going to happen and is not necessary. Once again, offense is the least of this team’s issues.
1) Buchholz’s peripherals suggest he’s outperforming his ability this year. I would be he’ll be a better pitcher next year than he was this year, but his ERA will be worse. Lester is remarkably consistent — other than stinking up the joint in April, he’s an ace. If he can pitch in April like he does in the rest of the year, he’ll be the Cy Young winner next year.
2) Beckett couldn’t possibly be worse next year than he was this year. If he’s healthy, he should be a lot better. Lackey could be worse, but it doesn’t seem likely. And even just a little improvement would be fine — he’d be a very good #4 starter, if a ridiculously overpaid one.
3) Daisuke pitched well enough — he’s better than league average, but I wouldn’t go so far as to say he’s pitched “very well.” But if he could give us six innings a start with a 4.19 ERA next year, you’d have to be happy with that. His peripherals suggest he’ll probably be a little worse next year, and he’s always going to walk too many batters, but if he can give us six innings a start with a 4.50 or so ERA next year, he’ll be the best fifth starter in the league.
4) You hate to see Wake go out like this, but it’s gotten to the point where he’s only a spot starter and you know the Sox are going to lose when he starts. He may want one last year, but he’s smart enough to know he’s probably not going to have a good season and he won’t get to pitch very much anyway, so he may well retire.
5) We’re likely to see a drop off in production at DH if he goes. That said, he’s not worth $12M/year anymore. If he really wants a multi-year contract, he should sign for $8M/year at most — and really it probably shouldn’t even be that high.
6) I think it’s safe to say Beltre will want to be paid like an elite third baseman; certainly he’s going to want a raise. And if he goes elsewhere, we’ll have less production at third. That could, however, be offset by not having to put half the outfielders in the organization on the DL with Beltreitis.
7) All the numbers suggest that Cameron should be productive next year. And I’d bet good money that Victor Martinez is indeed a better hitter without a broken thumb than with one. Had you mentioned Varitek, however, I would not be so certain.
8) The only way Ellsbury gets traded is if another team judges him based on his 2009 numbers and his age, which combined suggest he’s a very valuable commodity. But right now, there’s no reason for the Sox to trade him — he’ll be 100% by the spring and neither Kalish nor Reddick is ready to be an every-day player in the majors right now. So the only way the Sox would trade him is if they had an opportunity to get someone like Adrian Gonzales, which just isn’t going to happen this offseason.
9) He’s done. He was actually done two years ago, but the Sox didn’t really have anyone else available. If Victor re-signs, he’s obviously the starter next year, with Salty as the backup; if Victor leaves, Salty isn’t great, but he’s better than Tek over a full season.
10) Hall sucks. Can’t get on base; strikes out about a third of the time; has a low slugging percentage for a guy with that many homers, indicative of an all-or-nothing approach; has a good glove in the infield and decent in the outfield. For that, give me Lowrie in the infield and Nava and McDonald in the outfield — we’ll get better offense, better defense, and won’t have to pay what Hall is going to demand.
14) Worst case scenario, Scutaro is our shortstop and Lowrie is our 3B — and that’s not bad, especially if they both come back healthy in the spring. Best case scenario, we re-sign Beltre, Lowrie and Scutaro fight it out for the starting job at short, and whichever loses is our supersub in the infield and will still get 300 or so ABs.
15) Agreed. Lowell is done, and he knows it. He just didn’t want to end his career riding the pine.
16) The only catchers out there who are better than Victor right now aren’t available. There are some guys who aren’t much worse — typically, they hit worse but are better defensive catchers — but how expensive would it be to get them? The cheapest option is really to re-sign Victor, depending on how much of a discount he’s willing to give us.
17) If they don’t get rid of Bogar, could we at least watch him practice catching popups in left field with Beltre playing third? Maybe we could at least DL him for a while.
#17 is a perfect comment.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
I have a question about this one
13) Our starting AAAA OFs (Nava, Kalish, Reddick, McDonald) can only be improved upon. While capable backups, I can’t see them being counted on as starters. Someone else will be signed, or Ellsbury/Cameron will be cleared by the docs as being and staying healthy.
Why are all of these guys being called AAAA outfielders? Sure, McDonald and Nava are both too old to be legit prospects, and Reddick has had his ups and downs. But can’t at least one of them turn into an everyday starter? Given regular playing time, I could see Kalish develop into a quality starter… Just wondering everyone else’s opinions on this group…
Don't ask me -- I'm not the one who said that
I do think it’s true, though, for McDonald and maybe Nava, which makes them the perfect players to be our fourth and fifth outfielders next year. Reddick may be on his way there, but as someone recently pointed out to me, he’s only 23, so he deserves at least one more year in AAA to develop.
Kalish, on the other hand, is only 22, just got to AAA this year and appears to have a higher ceiling than Reddick anyway. He’s clearly not ready to be our every-day outfielder, but he deserves at least a full year in AAA and probably more before he gets the AAAA label. I would bet with a full year at AAA under his belt, he’ll be at AAAA level; by the middle of 2012, I would be he’s ready to start in our outfield.
Exactly what I was thinking
With Reddick and Kalish being so young, I think it’s unfair to slap them with the AAAA label. But it might also be unfair to expect them to significantly contribute in 2011.
For next year, they should be emergency call-ups only
Figure there’s no way Drew can go through a year like this without going on the DL and then stay healthy next year, when the rest of the team is bound to have better luck. When he inevitably goes on the DL for a couple weeks, let McDonald or Nava start in his place and call up Reddick. If another outfielder goes down, bring up Kalish for a couple weeks. Otherwise, let them dominate AAA. At worst, letting them excel in Pawtucket will increase their trade value should Theo have the opportunity to pick up a big piece at the deadline next year; at best, one of them will be ready to replace Cameron in the starting lineup in 2011 and be productive, and the other can replace Drew when his contract is up.
I'd let one of them platoon with Cam
Make it a competition this September, AFL and Spring Training. Pick the best one and let him start 60% of the time, Cam the other 40%.
Going back to a long discussion last week, I’d like that to happen in CF and move Ellsbury this offseason. I know it’s unlikely because it’s a sell-low situation, but I’d rather go after Werth or another middle of the order bat via trade for LF and play Cam/Redd-lish in CF.
Seems like a waste to me
Kalish and Reddick need regular playing time if they’re going to develop (playing 100% of the time). It almost never works out to bring up a prospect and then platoon them, they just don’t grow. Not to mention that Cameron will be making over $7 mil, which is way too much for our 4th OF. I’d rather see him full time until the kids are ready.
And while I get that everyone is down on Ells (and he hasn’t done much to prove us wrong this year), I don’t think we’d get nearly enough for him in a trade. And to me, Werth seems like the epitome of a guy about to get overpaid.
I don't think the platoon thing is necessarily a bad idea
because we can bring Kalish for example in with the safety net of Cameron, so the big league isn’t absolutely relying on a guy that’s barely seen major league pitching before, but Kalish would have the opportunity to earn the spot for himself if he excelled. Kind of like what happened with Ellsbury and Crisp.
Yeah, early season platoon. By the ASB, Reddlish should be ready.
But I’m not confident they are ready to begin the year, and since we’re saddled with this ridiculous Cameron contract, may as well use him to slide a kid in.
But if you're going to do that
Why not just keep them both in the minors until the ASB, then bring them up to take over for Cameron? They’ll have half a season of raking in AAA to build on, and if they come up and dominate immediately, you have a chance (sort-of) at trading Cameron away.
The downside of what you’re suggesting is that Kalish or Reddick starts the year as a platoon guy, does horribly, and it sets him back in his development. Why risk it?
depends on your mindset, I guess.
I see value in the platoon, and it gives them the day off to watch against CC, Lee, Cahill, Price, Buerhle, Loriano, etc.
I think they’ve dominated AAA, to send either back at this point has its own risk.
True
I think a lot of it will depend on this next month and ST next year. Kalish has been struggling a lot lately, you’d like to see him work through it. And if Cameron comes on strong in Spring Training, it just makes it all the more complicated.
It’s not like I’m a huge fan of Cameron or anything, but I think he’s taken a lot of crap for something out of his control.
Don't know where all this trade Ellsbury sentiment is coming from
Why would we trade one of our good young cost controlled players in order to give a guy on a two-year deal more time?
Ellsbury is a solid hitter, he got on base at a .350 clip last year, much better from the lead off position than he had been. His defense isn’t quite there but it’s fixable. Cameron Ellsbury and Drew will be the starters from left to right next year bearing further injury. Kalish and Reddick need to play in AAA to get regular at bats. If someone goes down with an injury they can come up to fill in as a starter. You don’t want to be taking at bats away from them during this crucial time in their development.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Exactly, especially regarding Kalish and Reddick
They both have shown that they’re not quite ready, and if you throw them in too early, or even worse into a platoon, they won’t develop.
Rebuilding teams throw their prospects straight into the fire because they can afford to let them struggle for a while. But with the 2011 Sox, we’re going to have three quality OFs already (plus probably a 4th in DMac). So why mess with it any more than necessary?
OK regardless of what you think of him as a player
he just has no value at all right now. You just don’t sell that low on a commodity.
and I do agree he shouldn't lead off
no matter how good his OBP gets (OK we’ll talk if he reaches 400), he just can’t get the long frustrating, pitch-wasting at bats that I love to see from leadoff hitters.
Yep, Scoot turned the season with a long at bat at Yankee Stadium
in May.
Ellsbury….well….can’t do that.
He’s just a frustratingly incomplete player. He can do a few things really, really well, and a lot of things not so great.
And I’d rather never see him face CC Sabbathia again.
Yes
Ellsbury is getting a raw deal all around, media, fans, even teammates. What are his sins? Getting hurt? Getting an initial mis-diagnosis? OK, he could have stayed in Boston and maybe come back a bit sooner before his re-injury, but that is no reason to give up on a young, exciting and established player like Ellsbury.
The whole "toughness" thing has been overblown
Even if he “should” have been back sooner, none of us know what was going on in the trainer’s room.
To me, this season was a lost one for Ells, so if you are going to judge him, it needs to be on what he did prior to 2010. And in that case, he still is a cheap young player, with both upside and weaknesses. I’m not ready to throw the towel on him, but he does need to improve next season.
I didn't mean to say that AAAA is their ceiling, but that's where they are now...
really good for AAA, not quite there for the majors. D-Mac is a capable backup OF. I hope they keep him.
ah ok
just the phrase usually refers to players who are permanantly stuck in the purgatory between being too good for AAA but no good in the majors
Yeah I thought that too
Sort of like a banishment, you’ll never be good enough. Thanks for the clarification dsharp, looks like we’re all on the same page.
Beckett will probably be better.
He still has injury issues but there are still positives.
This year (88.2 IP), he’s still striking out guys (8.22 K/9).
His walk rate didn’t rise that high (2.94 BB/9).
His BABIP is a little high (.342).
His LOB % is low (60.0 ) compared to the last 3 years (71.6 %, 71.3 %, 75.2 %).
Opponents aren’t exactly hitting him harder than before since his LD % is still close (21.0 %) to last year (21.1 %) or the year before that (25.2 %).
Pitchers like Beckett aren’t ground ball specialist. That explains his low GB (42.0 %).
This year hasn’t been a success for Beckett because of injuries, home runs (14 in 88.2 IP) and because his fastball have been below average. (-10.6)
Hopefully, he’ll be better next year.
When life gives you questions, Google has answers.
Why can't the people who make the news be at least a little smart?
It’s not that the Red Sox sucked in 2010, it’s that our best players weren’t playing, if your’e missing half your stars for half the season, some for the stretch run, you aren’t going to win games. If anything, we’re poised to be far BETTER!
Say we don’t re-sign any of our FA. OK, we still get back Youk, Ellsbury, a healthy Cameron, Pedrioa and at least Beckett can’t be WORSE than he has been. I mean he could be, but he’s a pitcher in his prime years who is suddenly very bad for no reason at all, Lackey was a step down from his usual self but he wasn’t as bad as people make him out to be. Buchholz won’t be AS good as he was this year, it’s nearly impossible to repeat seasons like this one which has to go down as one of the best Red Sox pitching seasons of the decade, probably behind Lester last year. Lester is steady, giving you the same dominant product every year. Dice-K, really who knows.
I think we gain more from the healthy players coming back than we would lose from all three major free agents leaving and being replaced, except maybe catcher, we really need a good replacement there, VMart and his bat at such a hitting depleted position really does things for this offense.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Agreed
The Sox are going to win 90 or so games with Pedroia missing half the year, Cameron and Ellsbury basically missing the entire year, Victor missing a month and Tek missing a third of the year, Youk missing a third of the year, Beckett missing a couple months, and Daisuke missing a couple months. Add to them Lowrie missing half the year, Buchholz’s brief trip to the DL and rehabilitation affecting about five starts (the one he got hurt in, the two he missed on the DL, and the first two after he came back), and the extensive playing time for Patterson and Hall because of the injuries, and the Sox not only didn’t suck, they were actually pretty awesome. If this team was healthy, we might have seen the first division with three 100 game winners.
The mystery of Beckett
Beckett consistently has shown he still has velocity (I’ve seen him crack 95 mph routinely) and has stretches where is breaking pitches are precise and cannot be hit. Physically, he’s GOT to be healthy right now.
Then he’ll explode in one inning, looking like a batting practice pitcher.
Something’s just not clicking either mentally, mechanically or in pitch sequence. Is he tipping?
I love how Mazz starts the article with
“At any point, to blame it all on the injuries is rather elementary and downright blind.” – Really? Because to me it seems like half of our team was hurt all year. Somewhere (I think it was on MLB.com), I saw the rankings of injured teams, where they total the number of DL days that a team has had throughout the year. And we were right at the top WITH our best players… So how is that elementary or downright blind?
Starting an article with such a sweeping dismissal of the most obvious and legitimate counter argument
is basically creating a fantasy world where you can say anything you want because you’ve changed the laws of physics so no one is allowed to disagree with you. He’s basically taken a huge chunk of the real world and said, “Let’s pretend that doesn’t exist.”
It basically means his argument has no standing in the real world.
Just a comment
It’s not even the off-season yet. Theo is among the top 5 GMs in the game. Let’s see what he does before declaring next year “lost”
It's hard to say what's been most impressive. The seamless jump from AA? The ability to hit for average? The ability to hit for power? The 18 walks in 111 trips to the plate? The flair for the dramatic? When you're trying to isolate the most impressive aspect of Jason Heyward's game, there's a lot to choose from, and it's only been a month and a half.
yeah
How can next year be over in September of the previous year?
2010 Red Sox Playoffs.... We Can Do It!
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by bestbostonsports on Aug 31, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions
How can you say he's top 5?
I don’t have a problem with him, but how can you say he’s better than the Pittsburgh GM?
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
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Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Aug 31, 2010 6:06 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
yeah it's so hard to really judge GMs
apart from the classification of “awful” (I’m looking at you, Omar)
So much can happen before now and then anyway
It’s impossible to know exactly what our roster will look like in 2011. I’m trying to stay on the “optimistic” side here and give Theo and Co the benefit of the doubt.
it could be better if we actually spent some cash in the free agency pool, but we all know that isn’t gonna happen.
however, i doubt that half our team will get injured again, so it may be marginally better but i dont see us getting past the Yankees again with this team. maybe we’ll get somewhere in 2012, right before the sun explodes (or whatever those psycho Mayan calendar believers thinks gonna happen)
But who do you spend on?
I’d spend on Victor and Beltre, but beyond them? We’re set in the rest of the infield with Youk, Pedroia, Scutaro, and Lowrie; we should be good to go in the outfield with Ellsbury, Cameron, and Drew starting and Nava on the bench, and hopefully we’ll bring back McDonald to be the other outfielder. The rotation is set with Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey, Dice-K, and Wake — we have six starters under contract right now. And Papelbon and Bard are solid at the back of the bullpen.
The only area really in need of a drastic improvement (other than health) is the bullpen. We need quality middle relievers. I’m not sure there’s anyone in free agency who is likely to be better than Bowden and Doubront, and Bowden has been shaky in general in the majors and Doubront doesn’t have much experience as a reliever, so they make me very nervous.
Pretty much concur.
Although I expect Kalish has earned consideration to be in the OF mix. Too bad Ellsbury never had time to come back and establish any trade value. Sigh …
I won’t be surprised if they try to retain all three of V-Mart, Beltre & Papi, but that may be asking too much.
The one big need is going to be the same as it was going into this year: Middle Relief.
If we stay healthy next year, even if the mid-relief sucks, we should still see improvement overall because even though we got out-performance from some guys (Beltre, and to some extent Buchholz) we got under performance from far more guys (primarily due to the injuries). If most of those guys get/stay healthy and return to form, even if Beltre drops back somewhat, overall we should be better off.
Kalish would sit on the bench
I’d rather have him playing every day in Pawtucket — he’ll be a better player in the long run that way, and you don’t waste a year toward free agency and arbitration by having him sit on the bench in Boston.
Nava and McDonald, on the other hand, aren’t going to get better in Pawtucket, won’t slow their development by being subs, and can contribute as bench players here. They’re perfect for that role.
But yes, this team will be better next year even if there are no big changes. The guys who overperformed will probably regress a bit to the mean, and the guys who underperformed due to injury will almost certainly do the same. Factor in another year of development/aging, and this team that will have won 90 or so games with so many injuries this year will be a strong threat to win 100+ next year when healthy.
But I still want a stronger bullpen. That’ll be the difference between winning 100 games and getting knocked out in the playoffs and making an historic run toward a dominant season and a World Series championship.
Many off-season questions
The good news for 2011 is the Sox will still come back with one of the best starting 5 in baseball. Sure, we all want more out of Beckett and Lackey with their contracts, but that is why you build a deep core of starters. I could easily see a scenario next season where Bucholz drops off and Beckett and or Lackey pick up the slack. Not much to worry about here and this ensures the Sox will be in a postion to win plenty of games in 2011.
On the other hand, the #3, 4 and 5 hitters, V-Mart, Ortiz and Betre could be gone. My bet is that Beltre walks, they have a 50/50 chance of resigning V-mart and a better than even chance that Ortiz is back. Ortiz will be interesting. The Sox hold an expensive $12.5 mil. team option for 2011 and the conventional wisdom is they don’t excercize the option and try to get him for a lower number. Will they try to work out a 2-year deal for a lower annual salary before the option comes due? What will it take, 2X $8mil? Could they just bite the bullet with the $12.5 for 2011 and keep flexibility here? Do they want Ortiz around for two more years? I don’t believe, like some, that Ortiz will be without suitors. Thirty+ homer guys are tough to find in the post-PED era. Yankees? Will be interesting.
Theo must also bolster the bullpen. He tends to like to patch here with projects and fliers, with mixed results. I would like to see them grab a solid veteran here, a guy they could use for the 7th inning next season and provide some insurance depth if Papplebon leaves.
I don't think Ortiz will be without suitors
but I do think he’ll be without suitors who would want to pay him enough for him to want to leave the Sox.
Very possible
Which is why I belive Ortiz will be back. But be careful of overestimating the allure of the Red Sox and Boston. All these players are basically mercenaries and many also overestimate the “hometown discount”. I have heard professional atheletes say they value that at arond 5-10% at the most.
Yankees?
Ortiz w/ that short RF porch……
(but, if they are smart, they realize that their DH is Posada. They seem reluctant to admit that)
yeah he would work there but
as you and others have said, they have players that need to be able to use that spot, so if they have a DH on the roster, they’re way better off with a DH that sacrifices a little bat for the ability to play the field somewhere (frankly a mainly DH who also catches, Montero looks like exactly what they need to me, though I can’t claim to be expert on their system…). I think Ortiz would also have a kind of stigma there, same as if the Red Sox signed Jeter after this year.
Yankees have no place for him
Posada, Jeter, and A Rod are all players who will be taking turns there and are under contract. Just because they can sign every free agent doesn’t mean they will. I think 2-years at 6-7 mil is about adequate for an older DH, the market has gone way down since he signed his last deal as players with defensive value are eatting up bigger contracts.
There are plenty of good relievers on the market this winter, Theo better grab one or two.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
There are significant pros/cons for signing all three of the big FA's
Ortiz
Pros: He’s a Red Sox legend, he’s as productive of a DH as you will find, he’ll sign for something reasonable for a reasonable amount of time
Cons: When he’s done, he’ll be done in a hurry; releasing him would be a nightmare; he’s zero versatile
VMart
Pros: Production for Catcher is great; he’s a great clubhouse presence; he can play 1B; he’s a professional hitter; improved catching
Cons: Power numbers translate to a better #6 hitter than #3; still not a great catcher/pitch caller; 4 year deal is pushing it, blocks other catching possibilities
Beltre
Pros: Best 3B available, well suited for Fenway offensively, good clubhouse fit, still an above average defender due to his range; still young/strong
Cons: his agent; hands have shown to be suspect on Fenway turf; buying high; unsustainabile BABIP and 2-strike avgs, OBP
I’d say offer Ortiz 2yr/$12M, VMart 4yr/$32M and Beltre 4yr/$36M and don’t budge. Be prepared to play Lowrie, Salty or find another DH solution (internal or external, not a tough slot to fill).
I hope you're right
But I have a hard time seeing any of those deals happening. Beltre made $10M this year, why would he sign for less than that after a career offensive season? Even if it is more years, you know Boras will demand more than that… VMart is making $7M this year, but this is his first time as a free agent, and probably his last big contract. $8M/year might be asking for too much of a discount… And for Papi, well, that might be doable. He’s the most likely to stay “loyal” to the Sox, and the least likely to maintain production.
Like I said, I hope you’re right, but I think it will take more. The way Theo and Co work, you’re probably right that they’ll set prices and stay put. Let’s all hope it gets done.
(Good work with the Pros and Cons, by the way).
yeah that's what I tend to think
I think that’s just way undervaluing Beltre (who is worth way more than that, even if his offense isn’t quite as good in the future). I think with VMart, a little more creativity might be able to make a contract work for all parties (something like a low base with escalators for games caught, or an option that vests with a decent amount of games caught and a lower player option- I think either of those would be legal). Might be able to work something out for more for a shorter time (frankly, 3/$32 seems closer to reasonable)
VMart is the key for me
Since C is such a weak offensive position. I like the idea of building a creative contract, but we just have to be careful not to lowball him… I wonder if they could offer him a frontloaded 4 year deal? Everyone projects him to only be a catcher for a few more years. Would he take more money up front (when he will most likely be behind the plate), and then take a little less for the years he moves to first (where he is less valuable)? Thoughts?
Yeah something like that may work
just I think that he believes he’ll be able to catch longer than that, which is why I thought escalators or a vesting option would work well for everybody (because if he IS catching just fine in 4 years, we’d be just happy to pay him a bunch). Frankly, I’ve seen the projections, but based on the facts that he doesn’t wear down over the course of a year, hasn’t caught for as long as most catchers his age, and doesn’t hit significantly better when not catching, I don’t think it’s a given that he WON’T be able to catch in a few years.
I'm going to go on record right now and say I also believe he'll be able to catch longer than that.
I don’t know what the projections that he’ll need to move to 1B within the next 5 years are based on.
His total number of professional games caught is only one season more than Joe Mauer’s.
He’s consistently shown that he’s a strong second-half player (especially compared to the average catcher) – which indicates his durability.
I just don’t see any reason, barring injury that he shouldn’t be behind the plate for the length of a 4 year contract. And that is where his best value is.
Maybe Theo tries to sell V-Mart on this idea (move to 1B in later years) in order to buy his later years at a lower price. But if we are smart, we continue to play him behind the plate (and Youk at 1B) as long as possible. That is the road to extracting the highest marginal value.
Also, Youk is younger and more valuable at 1B than V-Mart would be – why would V-Mart want to sell himself against that down the road? Nothing Victor has done or said has indicated to me that he is stupid.
Exactly
People seem to think there is some sort of archetype or empirical rule regarding VMart but no where does it say he’s going to be in a wheel chair guaranteed by the end of the contract if we make him catch. Maybe we can front load a deal, maybe over pay a little for his productive years, if something better comes along in the second half of the deal it would be easier to move him, he still gets paid and we have the option of moving say Lavarnway or Salty into the starting lineup.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Even though I have (some) doubts about his ability to catch that long
I still think that it is worth the risk. The upside is that he does catch for the next four years (and we should all be hoping for that, obviously). And the downside is that he ends up finishing the last two years at 1B/DH. Which I understand is not ideal, but it’s not horrible either. I mean, obviously Youk at 1B and Victor at catcher is the perfect solution. But a year or two with him not catching is not going to sink this team.
But unless Youk gets injured or you found reason to move him back to 3B ...
you would be hurting the team playing V-Mart there instead of Youk.
That shift of positions only makes sense because of a weakness elsewhere than Catcher (i.e. Youk injured or we don’t have a decent option at 3B). Finding a replacement Catcher is much more difficult than finding a replacement 3B so it doesn’t really make much sense to do that move.
Consider the lineup right now: Remove Beltre from the picture. Which lineup do you want:
C: V-Mart
1B: Youk
3B: Lowrie
or
C: Salty / Cash / Brown / some other scrub
1B: V-Mart
3B: Youk
In the first scenario you have way-above average value at C & 1B and slightly below offensive value at 3B.
In the second scenario you have WAY below average value at C, slightly below at 1B and probably slightly above value at 3B.
Now, 3-4 years from now, the names may be different, but the point is still going to be the same because the average offensive value at catcher around the league is still going to suck.
No, I totally agree with that
We want Victor to play at C, obviously. But I guess I’m pulling for us to re-sign him, using that same logic. Let’s say the Sox can only get one of Beltre or VMart. If we sign Beltre, you’re looking at Beltre, Youk and likely a serious downgrade at C. If we sign Victor, it’s him, Youk and probably Lowrie at third.
I think we’re arguing the same things here, just different ways. I’d love for us to resign Beltre and Martinez, if the price is right, but I think that if I could only have one, I’d take Victor.
Salty is most literately the worst case scenario at catcher.
We at least KNOW what other catchers are capable of, no one really knows about him. If we look at past performances we can firmly say he is NOT a major league caliber catcher, if we look at ceiling he could be a great catcher, he hasn’t seemed to have found an in between that is amenable to playing on this team. Give him a backup spot or start him in AAA but do NOT assign him as the starter of this team, we truly will deserve what we get if we let him start.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
yeah I think there is 0 chance that he is the opening day starting catcher next year
if they think that he’ll be able to take the starting catcher duties, he’s gonna start as a backup with some free agent catcher on a one year deal he can replace.
the season isn't over yet.
We’re at that point where a sweep by the O’s may actually be useful. Park Lowell, play VMart and Lars at 1B and play Salty damn near everyday in September.
I know it’s a ridiculously small sample, but I liked what I saw in his August time in both Pawtucket and Boston.
I agree, risky move to have him as starter….short term. Long term risk may be signing VMart.
True
He could prove a lot in September. If he does though, would you still give him the starting job outright? Or would you do what wolf said above, and bring in someone on a one year deal as insurance?
A lot of tough calls to be made
I guess the good side is that there is no bad answer.
I’m fairly comfortable in all of these “negatives”:
- Lowrie at 3B
- Salty at C
- Lars at DH
- Youk at 3B, Lars at 1B
- Youk at 3B, VMart at 1B, Salty at C
- Vmart at C/DH, Salty at C/DH
I guess the biggest concern is probably at 3B with Lowrie, who I love when healthy, but he’s just not healthy. And there are no other 3B ready in the system for years. Thus, maybe Beltre is the top of the list to resign…
They both scare me
Lowrie and Salty that is. I’d love it if they surprise me, but it’d be a big leap of faith to let both of them be our starters next year. We’d be losing our #3 and #5 hitters, and replacing them with #6 and #7 ish bats.
A little light
I doubt Ortiz would take $12 mil. for TWO years when the team has an option for ONE year at $12.5. 2 X $7-8 mil. may get it done; that’s a reasonable deal for both. If they offer a one year deal for less than the option, I’m guessing he tests the market.
Everything is market dependent, but I see V-Mart commanding at least $50 million for 4 years. That was the Posada deal and we would all agree that V-Mart is a more valuable player than Posada. Of course that is a Yankee contract, but I have to think his agent will be looking at similar numbers.
Beltre may scare many teams with his up and down seasons, but he should get 3-4 years at $12 – $14 mil/year. Again, this depends upon who is bidding, but it only takes one and I’m hearing that the Angels are a real possibility here.
Very interesting
I could live with Ortiz at 2yr/$14M. The thing about VMart vs Posada is an unfair comparison. Not only because it was a Yankees contract, but because it was a BAD Yankees contract. It’s hard to say “Pay me what Posada paid” when almost everyone around the league would say that it was a bad deal.
If you look at Beltre’s contract with the Ms, it averaged out to a little over $12M/year. And that was a bad contract for them. Even though everyone expects him to outperform his years in Seattle, should he get paid more than $12M a year? I think cds’ guess of 4yr/$48M makes a lot of sense…
and besides being a bad contract
Posada’s contract came during a boom time for player contracts, which we’ve definitely left.
Ortiz's option is irrelevant. We aren't picking it up
ergo he is not worth anywhere close to $12.5 mil for a year. He is worth far less because A) He’s showing age B)Contracts like that aren’t handed out anymore for the DH spot. They only serve half the value of a field player. Matsui I think serves as a strong comparison, a guy who lit up his last year in New York after having a down year, can barely play the field. 1 year $6 mil.
Callaspo is still under team control. He isn’t going to clobber anyone with his bat BUT he provides excellent 3B defense and has shown the ability to get on base, makes it difficult for them to consider adding a top free agent.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Yes
But the Sox have to either work out a deal with Ortiz before the option deadline (November?), or decline the option. Once they decline the option, he is a free agent and you have to live with the results. If they tell him they are going to decline the option and offer him a one year deal for half, I’m betting Ortiz tests the market.
I can’t feel good about Beltre sticking around. Boras likes to move his players to keep the market going. Also, he will have more teams looking at him than Ortiz (rich AL teams only) and even V-mart.
This is ridiculous.
That Massarotti article was a joke, and now everyone is all worked up about it. Next year we will have a solid rotation, hopefully a better bullpen, and our players back from injury. You want to know why I’m not worried? Because we have a better record than many other division leaders, and we have our best players on the DL. Put Texeira, Cano, Granderson, and Gardner on the DL for the rest of the season and see how well the Yankees do, same with the Rays. This article is a joke, and the Sox will be fin e next year.
Yes but..........
Three players that are healthy and contributing, Beltre, V-Mart and Ortiz may all be gone. Losing those and gaining Pedroia, Youk and Ellsbury is regression.
no, because
that is not the 2011 season projecting to be worse, that is saying “in this fantasy world where the Red Sox sit and watch these players leave without re-signing any or finding adequate replacements, this team will be awful in 2011”
What he’s saying is “If the front office decided to do absolutely nothing this offseason, the 2011 season projects to be even worse” but he’s leaving out the first part of that sentence. It’s ridiculous crap.
injuries biggest problem
Going around the field
1b – Youkilis will be more productive next season than this
2b – Pedroia will be more productive than this
SS – Either Scutaro will give us about the same, or Lowrie will be here.
3B – is Beltre coming back? He’s worth keeping. If Beltre leaves it’s a blow.
Lowrie hasn’t shown that he can provide enough hitting to be an elite 3B.
OF – Drew good value who will never be a club leader
OF – Ellsbury? My patience has worn thin with his fielding. Should give us more in ‘11
OF – Cameron? Should consider retirement.
other OF – we’ve seen some promise from the replacements. We need somebody new to break through here.
C – V-Mart is a great hitter and below-average defender. That’s worth having. There are not enough catchers great at everything.
DH – Papi. If he comes back, it would be at a lower number. After his atrocious April he’s been one of the keys to the lineup this season. I am hopeful that he can have 2-3 more productive seasons.
Pitching
Lester, Buchholz – any team in the bigs would want to have these two guys
Beckett, Lackey – underperforming their contracts.
Dice-K – continues to be inconsistent. I suspect he’s generally unhappy in Boston and that’s why he pitches so much better when he’s pitching for the Japanese national team. What would be best for him would be to go back to Japan where he’d be happier.
Wake – might want to retire
middle relief – been a disappointment this season.
Bard – future closer
Paps – cipher
I’ve been saying many times that I think a lot of the problems with the Sox’ pitching relate to John Farrell. I’ve seen one pitcher after another underperform their historical norms for the Sox. It’s really getting to be a bit too much. The team ERA has consistently gone up with him running things. The Sox should find somebody else.
Oh, and Bogar? Truly the worst 3b coach I’ve ever seen.
On the whole, I think the Sox should be better next season, but the pitching really needs to get back into shape. I think the best way to get there is to get rid of Farrell and find a pitching coach who helps pitchers get out of slumps. I firmly believe that Lackey and Beckett could be whipped back into form by a pitching coach who knew his business.
but then without Farrell
Buchholz and Lester will be unable to pitch since they’ve only done so well under his tutelage!
really I just don’t see how people not involved in the organization think they can judge a pitching coach based on a couple of people having bad seasons. The front office (and several others) clearly thinks highly of him and I just don’t see any evidence that he has sabatoged anyone’s season.
the rational part of me agrees with you
but the irrational fan part is gonna be really, really disappointed when he goes, and would really like to see him hit for another couple of years for the Sox and retire as one.
yeah clearly Manny was exactly the same as Ortiz
Are you gonna try to argue this with me when I clearly said I am aware it is my “irrational fan part”? Really?
I was just making a sarcastic comment, at no one in particular. Not a shot at you at all, more a shot at Manny (and the irrational White Sox). I’m right there with you as an “irrational fan” wanting Ortiz to retire with us.
haha I think Manny is PERFECT for the white sox
When the season is over, I think he, Ozzie, and Kenny Williams can have their own reality show where they have to live in a small chicago apartment together. I’d watch it.
Perfect for entertainment value?
Totally. Perfect in a baseball sense, I think it’s a bit of reach. Sure he’s an upgrade over Mark Kotsay, but I don’t think it pushes them over the edge.
oh yeah, I think the Twins have a playoff spot
I think Manny fits in with the White Sox whole soap opera vibe.
I have a friend who lives in Chicago
And he asked what I think about the move. Told him “I can’t wait for these sound bites.” Should be a golden September on the South Side.
pitchers under performing their historical norms under Farrell?
Perhaps.
But having Fenway as their home park (and playing int he AL East) may be a significant contributor as well…
As a side note
Great thread guys. A lot of good discussions, some disagreements (without kicking and screaming). Not to get all mushy here, but it’s nice to have intelligent conversations with fans every once in a while.
NOW YOU SIT DOWN AND SHUT THE HELL UP
Sorry. The disagreements were becoming too cordial.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Why you gotta bring my momma into it?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
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