Cy: Claysy
by 0157H7 on Aug 23, 2010 8:00 AM EDT
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Little Girl: 1... 2.. 3... 4... 5... 7... 6... 6... 8... 9... runs allowed by the bullpen...
Narrator [shouting]: 10! 9! 8! 7! 6! 5! 4! 3! 2! 1! 0!!!
Narrator: These are the stakes.
To make a world in which all of the Red Sox compete for the playoffs, or to go into the darkness.
We must either love this team, or we must die.
VOTE CLAY BUCHHOLZ FOR CY YOUNG ON AUGUST 23. THE STAKES ARE TOO HIGH FOR YOU TO STAY HOME.
via http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1052/1300180300_c77401d86c_o.jpg
______________________________________________________________
This message paid for by the Principle Intellectual Television Committee to Help Elect Redsox (PITCHER).
P.S.: Mark Wahlberg shoots Derek Jeter:
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Just watched Jeter get shot.
Love the part – “You should have shot A-Rod.”
I love Lester and Pedroia!!! ITS MAN LOVE!
If we make the playoffs on Buchholz' back, and he doesn't win Cy Young...I'll lose it.
Cliff Lee doesn’t deserve it at all.
Right now it’s Price at #1, Buchholz at #2…that’s my list.
If Buchholz continues to blank teams, and his ERA continues to free fall, as we make the playoffs and the Rays drop to oblivion…it only seems right that he’d get the Cy.
how does the dude who has averaged almost 8 innings/start and walked a total of 11 guys this year not deserve it at all?
Price hasn’t been that incredible since mid july, I think his cy young stock is falling a bit.
"The numbers are good, but I’ve had a lot of good luck," Buchholz said. "Just going back to balls hit really hard at guys, 5 feet to either side, it’s two or three runs at a time. It’s definitely satisfying to be where we’re at and where I’m at, but it could be the complete opposite really quick. I’m just trying to stay settled in here."
Clay’s ERA/FIP/xFIP: 2.26/3.60/4.20
Think before you post!
by radiohix on Aug 23, 2010 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I'm not sure xFIP factors too heavily into cy young voting
kind of like how MVP is not just the player with the highest WAR
exactly.
radiohix is the all knowing oracle of baseball, what a guru indeed.
“think before you post!!!!!!!”
On the other hand
Clay’s plate discipline numbers suggest better peripheral’s than Clay comes up with. He has swinging strikes right up there with Lester, and similar B-S numbers, but noticeably fewer strikeouts and noticeably more walks.
I don’t expect a 2.26 ERA next year, but I don’t think that xFIP is really indicative of how good of a pitcher Clay has been this year. The ability to throw balls in the zone and have hitters miss is a rare one indeed.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Aug 23, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
again...radiohix = guru of all things baseball
and xFIP is the ONLY useful stat in pitcher analysis!
Y'know, you might find he's very reasonable and open to informed debate
If you responded with something other than attacks.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Aug 23, 2010 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I mean, I get that the "think before you post" thing is confrontational
But still.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Aug 23, 2010 1:33 PM EDT up reply actions
The way he phrased his response was not, in any way, opening a "debate"
It was using condescending, self important banter.
I apologize if I sounded a bit harsh
This is the holly month here in my country and we stop eating or drinking for the whole day and the Lee’s comment rubbed me the wrong way and with my lack of coffee I maybe went confrontational but ERA is a poor metric for evaluating a pitcher performance on an individual bases.
IPs, Ks, BBs and GBs are a much better way for doing that and in that department: Lee, Felix and Liriano are better pitchers than Clay!
You use one stat and discredit an otherwise ridiculously successful year.
Shut up.
Anyone who is good gets a good amount of luck. Ask the Yankees.
He uses the two stats that do arguably the best job of neutralizing luck...
It’s not like he picked them out of thin air.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Aug 23, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I hate to say it
I REALLY hate to say it. But Lee is definitely deserving. He’s on course to post the best K/BB ratio OF ALL TIME. He’s striking out more than Buch, and even though Price K’s a little more, he has the highest BB/9 of the trio, and Lee’s is an infinitesimal .57; he has given up nearly as many walks (11) as he has had complete games (7). Throw in an average of 8 innings a start and a total of over 170 innings, and you have a horse who will go deep into games with low pitch counts, high strikeout numbers, and even lower walk totals. He does literally everything you could ask of a pitcher, and he is doing this with bad fielding, an FIP approaching 2 with an ERA around 3.4. Buch, meanwhile, has a strand rate of over 80%, well above the MLB average, compared to Lee’s at about 70%, much closer to average. While Clay has pitched well this season, his glittering ERA is as much a product of the fielders behind him and a decent amount of luck as it has been his personal performance. The Cy Young is an individual award, and as of now the best individual pitcher in the AL has been Lee.
That being said, I would still vote for Buch given the opportunity.
Then again
They tend to vote on the basis of wins.
Ask Roger for the times Stewart won the award on the basis of the outstanding run support from the Bash Brothers.
"simul justus et peccator"
Not last year they didn't
It’s evolving, thankfully…
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last year, however,
Greinke was SO much more dominant than anyone else. This year there’s enough guys having fantastic years that I think it’s gonna be a big part.
Kids not even the most deserving pitcher on his team.. Lester, Sabathia, Weaver, and Price all have better chances to win AL Cy than Clay
by DanTuc27 on Aug 23, 2010 12:15 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Most deserving doesn't mean best chance to win.
He hasn’t pitched as much as Lester, but look at the ERA+ (194 to 134) and tell me he isn’t having a better season. He’s doing his job and preventing runs. Sabathia and Price have a good shot to get the award, but Weaver’s win total won’t be there. (Again, I don’t come up with the ridiculous criteria for these awards, like wins; most deserving does not mean best chance to win.) If you’re gonna mention Weaver, you need to throw Hernandez and Cahill into the mix.
Oh, if a man tried to take his time on earth, and prove before he died
What one man's life could be worth--oh, I wonder what would happen to this world.
by LegendaryTadpole on Aug 23, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Why are Lester, Sabathia, and Weaver more deserving than him?
certainly, they’re all in the conversation (except Weaver, I don’t really think he belongs there) but I don’t know if any of them are shoo-ins over him, or having better seasons.
Let's Take a Look
(I’m actually taking a look, not sure how they compare, this is a learning experience)
I’m going to look at this as a matter of realistic shots rather than deserving shots.
Clay – 15-5 2.26 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3.60 FIP 3.0 WAR
Lester – 13-8 3.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3.23 FIP, 4.2 WAR
Sabathia – 17-5 3.02 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.58 FIP, 3.7 WAR
Price – 15-5 2.97 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 3.45 FIP, 3.5 WAR
Weaver – 11-9 3.21 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.30 FIP, 4.1 WAR
All have pretty decent stats, the ones I used are the ones the voters will be looking at, valid or not, Wins, ERA, WHIP and I included a couple they probably won’t, FIP and WAR.
First things first, Weaver will not be winning Cy Young, the Angels are a sub-.500 team in a ‘meh’ division. He’s had a good year, but not a great year.
The next I’ll throw out is Lester. He may deserve it, he’s a great pitcher, but getting blown out in his last game will not help him at this point as Cy Young talk heats up.
The next three, well it’s hard to pick one from the others. CC has the highest ERA, but also the most wins and WAR. Clay has the lowest ERA but also the lowest WAR. Price leads in FIP, but is tied with Clay for Wins and is in the middle for ERA.
I would say that between these 5 pitchers it really could be any one of those final three depending on how the voters value one stat over another. If CC leads the league in wins, is that enough to offset is higher ERA? Or if Clay continues to dominate with holding the ERA crown be enough?
I’d like to say Clay is the favorite as a Sox fan and whether he reverts to his peripherals or not, he has put up an amazing product this year and is every bit deserving of the Cy Young if he were to win it.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Also
Lee is very much in the category too, but I’m just talking about the guys you mentions.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Been great
But can the voters look past a 9-10 record?
If he weren't on the Mariner's I don't think there would even be a question it would be him
but as good as he is, and as good a year as he is having, he’s gonna have to get a W every start till the end of the year to get consideration
Also Liriano
Lowest FIP and xFIP in the AL.
This has been an incredible year for pitching.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Rogue...no he isnt!!!!
as stated by radiohix, his xFIP is not very impressive, so how idiotic of you to even suggest clay a candidate!!!!
…“think before you post!” hahahhahahaha….fail
Wow
One thing to say Clay will not win the CYA. Totally another to say he isn’t even in the conversation with the leagues lowest ERA. Which isn’t the best stat, but it’s a major one in making considerations. What are you smoking?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
He's not even the best pitcher on his own team
And not in a Schilling is second to RJ kind of way.
He deserved to be mentioned in the conversation I guess… but I just can’t see anyone making a successful argument that he’s been one of the five best pitchers in the AL this year.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Results are results
It’s nice to say that the peripherals show Lester is better, but what does a Cy Young voter care about peripherals, it’s Wins and ERA. Right now in those categories Buch is ahead of Lester. Lester only has the edge in K’s and it is what it is, I don’t think Buch really cares about them, he’d rather get a GO on the first pitch than throw two more than he has to.
All I’m saying is that if the season ended right now, peripherals be damned, Buchholz has had the better season, regardless of the way he did it, are the CY voters going to go for the guy with the higher ERA and less wins?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I don't think Id even have Clay in my top 5 for Cy Young.
He’s not a legit candidate. Stop the bandwagon. There have been a number of better pitchers this year… its embarassing that Sox fans are making such a big deal out of a pretty good year and a lucky ERA. The lack of Ks isn’t the big issue – its his walks, and his HR rate. Clay doesn’t allow a lot of flyballs to begin with – but those that he did allow have left the park at a very low rate (5.5%). There is still some debate as to how much of that is a skill… but hard for me to believe its that much.
So, Clay is having a very good year… but he’s not a legit Cy Young candidate for me. Very excited about his future… and I’ve always been a HUGE Clay guy. Just can’t imagine someone voting him the Cy Young over guys like Liriano, King Felix, Cliff Lee… Hell, I think Jon Lester has pretty easily been the better pitcher this year. He’s done everything better than Clay this year. Striking out much more guys, walking less, 54.2% GB rate. If you want to make a case for someone make it for Lester. Lester should probably finish top 5. If you really think Clay deserves the Cy Young you really need to go back and take another look at how you evaluate pitching. ERA is garbage and somewhat arbitrary.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
SO's aren't everything
He used to do that but then he realized he didn’t have to and learned to get guys out in other ways. I’m starting to think that maybe Clay isn’t one of those pitchers that you should take a lot of stock in their FIP and xFIP because it will never be representative of their pitching style. He isn’t that kid in AA striking out more batters than innings, he’s more finesse now.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
ERA is garbage and somewhat arbitrary.
I kinda agree on this, so he wouldn’t really be at the top for me. But when you look at what criteria the voters use (wins, ERA, K, maybe WHIP), he would definitely be in the conversation.
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
I hate Hermida
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Aug 23, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions
perspective
I love stats, but sometimes everyone needs to put down the stat book and look, I mean really LOOK, at these pitchers in deciding who should win the award for “most dominant pitcher of the year” (which is really what the Cy Young award is).
First off, lets toss out FIP. Here is the way FIP is calculated: The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)3-K2)/IP. So basically its WHIP and HBPs, Plus Home Runs multiplied by 13. OK, last time I checked, giving up less home runs than the next guy was better, but surely not a true indication of how dominant a pitcher is.
Story: Tom Seaver, in discussing stats in general, said once that pitching was more than just throwing the ball. If he had a lead, and the game was still early, he would throw an 0-2 fastball to see what hitter would do.
Basically, he was doing 2 things: 1: going after the hitter (70% of the time the batter will make an out anyways), in doing so allowing himself to go deeper into the games.
2: setting hitters up for important ABs. Greg Maddux talked about doing this as well.
Buchholz has been excellent this year. He also has thrown only 140 innings. He has averaged 6.3 innings per start. (Last year Greinke averaged 6.93 innings per start).
He has 96 Ks. Hardly dominant at this point in the season.
Great pitcher, great talent. Hasn’t allowed many Home Runs.
Sometimes you do need to watch baseball to make decisions on who gets these awards.
Maybe in the future he will, but this season Buccholtz won’t win the Cy.
First off, lets toss out FIP. Here is the way FIP is calculated: The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)3-K2)/IP. So basically its WHIP and HBPs, Plus Home Runs multiplied by 13. OK, last time I checked, giving up less home runs than the next guy was better, but surely not a true indication of how dominant a pitcher is.
Giving up HRs = Bad, no?
IMO this is one of the most important things a pitcher can do… the real question is how much of it is a skill and how much is just luck.
Story: Tom Seaver, in discussing stats in general, said once that pitching was more than just throwing the ball. If he had a lead, and the game was still early, he would throw an 0-2 fastball to see what hitter would do.
Basically, he was doing 2 things: 1: going after the hitter (70% of the time the batter will make an out anyways), in doing so allowing himself to go deeper into the games.
2: setting hitters up for important ABs. Greg Maddux talked about doing this as well.
This is a cogent point, but for it to actually have any effect on the metrics you have to give me a reason why one guy is effected more or less by this issue than others.
When I use tools like these I understand there is a large built in margin of error.
Bullpen Banter
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twitter: @alskor
If the season were to end today
I’d vote King Felix.
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Follow this guy on Twitter: @RCBooth
Felix just ins't the media darling that the others are.
too bad for him
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
Bill Hall's defense on the 20-80 scale: 15.
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Aug 24, 2010 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
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