The Biggest UZR: Forgotten but not Lost
In all the uproar over Boston's lost season, one thing (at least) has been overlooked. The Sox are playing good defense. Now, maybe chicks dig the long ball, and purists love the no-hitter, but Theo and company deserve some credit for having at least part of their pitching and defense strategy work out.
Boston is 6th in the AL,* and 11th in MLB in Ultimate Zone Rating (the last, best hope for measuring fielding), at 12.1 runs above average. If you look over here, you can see just how our players are doing - you might be surprised at the results.
First, some non-surprises. The Red Sox leaderboard is filled with familiar names:
Adrian Beltre 3B 7.2 UZR, 12.5 UZR / 150 Games
Dustin Pedroia 2B 5.8 UZR, 10.6 UZR/150
JD Drew RF 5.2 UZR, 12.1 UZR/150
Anyone who didn't expect to see these guys at the top is either delusional or a Yankee fan (likely both). But the next tier of players includes some players that are less predictable:
Marco Scutaro SS 3.3 UZR, 5.3 UZR/150
Mike Lowell 1B 1.4 UZR (only 123 innings)
Jacoby Ellsbury CF 1.0 UZR (only 104 innings)
Long ago (December 2009), a hot-headed, red-blooded pundit called out Theo for foolishly signing Marco Scutaro, in contravention of all that we as a Nation hold dear (see here, and here). Nine months later, I am still a hot-headed, red-blooded pundit, and Theo Epstein is still GM of the Red Sox. Scutaro has been a revelation, providing stability, solid offense, and great defense at a position that has seen approximately none of those things since 2003. A sensible person would admit defeat and defer to Epstein's superior baseball talent, but since I am a sportswriter, I will double down on my unwise predictions by deflecting the issue. Did you know that, with Scutaro, Boston is in 3rd place. Coming soon to fine booksellers near you, The CURSE: How Marco Scutaro Singlehandedly Sunk Boston's Playoff Hopes.
And Mikey - who'd have thought that Lowell with all his injuries would have been a decent first baseman? Granted, it's only 123 innings, but maybe he'll keep up the pace. Darnell MacDonald has been good on the corners (2.1 UZR in left, 1.0 in right), and Bill Hall is above average at 2B, with a 0.8. And for someone missing almost the whole season to injuy, Ellsbury's been solid in Center field, which is a nice change of pace from his previous years there.
Some players have shown striking declines in their defensive performance, however.
Kevin Youkilis 1B 0.5 UZR, 0.9 UZR/150
Mike Cameron CF -8.0 UZR, -27.9 UZR/150
Youkilis' numbers are still positive, just far from his usual excellence; last year, for example, he had a 7.9 UZR at first base. But Cameron's are shockingly bad: the worst overall on the team, and a major departure from his reputation of defensive excellence. This isn't unprecedented - in 2007 with San Diego, Cameron finished the season with a -14 UZR. With MacDonald weakest at CF, and Ellsbury out, the middle outfield position has been a big black hole in our defense.
Still, on a team struggling for good news almost as badly as it is struggling for wins, the solid, steadfast defense is encouraging. And it's a sign that at least one part of Theo's master plan is working out.
Fun Pessimistic Non Sequitur: Jonathan Papelbon has a 9.5 VORP as a pitcher, good for sixth on the team. Daniel Bard's is 19.1, Dicek's is 14.6 and Lackey's is 14.1.
*Teams ahead are the Rays, Twins, Rangers, Athletics and Mariners
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Am I missing something?
Scoot has a -2.4 UZR according to the FanGraphs site. Perhaps I’m reading it wrong?
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
I see the same.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
It's curious, I don't remember what I saw exactly
but I’m pretty sure that i Just looked at that last friday or so and it was a positive number… I know they update it on sundays, but unless he really had the worst week ever (which I don’t think he did…), there must have been an error in there somewhere, either with the past number or the current number.
Statistics.
Can’t trust ’em.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Does someone wanna tell me where the @#$% Drugs Delaney is?
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
well they DO update them sundays
so presumably our fearless author just wrote it before they had updated it for this week. Just Scutaro’s is a much bigger change than I would have thought possible in one week…
Iswear I looked at it a couple days ago, and it was something like 3.1
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
I hate Hermida
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Aug 16, 2010 3:33 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
UZR is a bowl of shit.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
He put it concisely. You have to give him that.
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
Very visual, as well.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
Does someone wanna tell me where the @#$% Drugs Delaney is?
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Wow, epic fail on the update.
I’m tempted to rewrite the whole thing, but now let this piece stand as a monument to the failure of relying on Fangraphs for a stat that’s updated only once a week (or even less frequently).
Scutaro’s rapid decline is striking. Youkilis moved into positive territory. And all of our centerfielders are negative, with the exceptions of Tacoby and Bill Hall (??!!).
Adrian Beltre is why we can't have healthy outfielders.
well both those are silly small sample sizes
at the end of the year, I don’t think we’ll have a single player with an acceptable sample size in center. I think Bill Hall’s sample size is about like saying somebody is a good hitter based on their OPS 2 games into the season
UZR gives me an ice cream headache
But I’m sure the Sox and all other organizations use it. I guess I could be OK with the stat, like most statistics, being used on a very macro, relative basis. I don’t believe it is a good individual player statistic, simply because of range of variables involved. Again, I could be swayed to respect the stat when it is applied over several seasons to an individual player.
The Ellsbury UZR just kills it for me. I never heard one baseball analyst say Ellsbury is a below average OF, but there is the blessed UZR, ranking him in the bottom of the league. Suddenly we find out that he gets bad reads on balls to support the stat. Give me a break.
I'm pretty sure the Sox don't use it
they have their own system they use… can’t remember what they call it.
But yeah, as the creator’s always said, a full season is not an adequate sample size for UZR. It doesn’t tell that much until a player’s already been in a position for quite a long time, one of the reasons scouting usually wins on defense.

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