Theo's Trade Deadline Plan: Adding 'Salty' to Injury
by 0157H7 on Aug 1, 2010 10:49 PM EDT
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PrintMost of us didn't have big expectations for the trade deadline this year. The biggest names weren't the one's on Theo's shopping list, but on those on DL: Pedroia, Ellsbury, and everyone else. So the arrival of Jarrod "Salty" Saltalamacchia was quite the surprise.
But who is this guy? Why is his name so long? Does he agree with the Mayo Clinic that excessive sodium consumption is bad? Does he believe that Angelina Jolie is really a sleeper agent for Russia, or an innocent killer spy, or a sleeper agent posing as an innocent killer spy, or a crazy person who not only married Billy Bob Thornton but wore his blood around her neck?
None of those answers will be found here. Instead, we're going to look at Saltalamacchia's numbers and career thus far, and see if they provide any clues as to what we can expect from him.
In broad strokes:
Minors: .273 / .370 / .453 ; .823 OPS (7 seasons, 789 AB)
Majors: .251 / .313 / .388; .701 OPS (4 season, 794 AB)
Salty used to be regarded as one of the top catching prospects in the game. His ceiling was as a catcher who hit for power and average, like Victor Martinez or Russel Martin. He was the centerpiece of a package of 4 minor leaguers in the 2007 trade that sent Mark Teixeira to Atlanta. But his performance in the majors hasn't awed anyone. Worst of all, his numbers have worsened each year:
2007: .732 OPS
2008: .716 OPS
2009: .661 OPS
2010: has missed all but 2 games to injury (recovering from surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome* and upper back soreness)
For all that, Salty has barely had two full seasons worth of AB in the majors, so you can't say that the 25 year-old is done for. Some players look mediocre or terrible in their first few seasons. I remember when Clay Buchholz and Jon Lester could barely throw strikes consistently, let alone get All Star status. David Ortiz languished for six years in Minnesota before reaching his potential, at the age of 27 . Others are late bloomers. Jason Varitek had a .716 OPS in his first season, at the age of 26. At age 27, he improved significantly, as his OPS rose almost 100 points to .813.
I like this trade. We're trading for potential, but not buying high, as happened in the Pena - Arroyo deal. There's a good chance that Salty doesn't make it, or isn't anything more than a backup; in which case the most promising guy we've lost is a reliever who throws in the mid-90s. Lest we forget, Manny Delcarmen, Craig Hansen and Ramon Ramirez all throw in the mid-90s; they just aren't spectacular relievers.
But if Salty somehow realizes the potential so many scouts and teams saw in him, the results could be very impressive, and Theo will be hailed once again, as a genius. Not the move we expected, and not one that's likely to help much this year, but it could have impact down the road.
* A rare condition in which a ballplayer finds sockets growing out of his back.
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They gave up
too much for him
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Aug 1, 2010 11:14 PM EDT reply actions
Eh
I didn’t feel a pang of regret when we landed him like I do in most trades. Mendez might have been a decent pitcher but needed to work on placement, probably wasn’t going to be on the team at all in the near future and McGuinness wasn’t blocked by 1 but by 3 other major league/ high ceiling minor league players in Youk, Lars and Rizzo, I mean, he was having a breakout year so far but he didn’t really have a future here, might as well sell high.
Theo has been trying for Salty for a long time now and finally the asking price was low enough to get him and he went for it. We’re desperate for a backup catcher, now and in the future and Salty can be just that.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Bingo.
Even if he isn’t our catcher of the future, he can certainly be the second catcher of the future.
Fenway: "An alternate and better universe, disguised as a ballpark." --Thomas Boswell
Expo is the catcher of the future
and then FedEx, I thought?
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Aug 2, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Ibarra even
Or Lavarnway.
We have a lot in the minors but not one of them has really reached out and grabbed the mantle of catcher of the future and run with it. Salty is near that threshold of bust, but he is only 25 and with a better bat than Wagner or Brown.
I don’t think Theo brought him here to be a starter but rather a competent back up for the next few years, the way catching is, we’ll be lucky to actually hit on any of the catchers in our system, if we hit on just one of them, that prospect and Salty will give us solid depth at the position.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I forgot Lavarnway
I wrote about him last week, he looks real good
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Aug 2, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Expo, Fed, Lavarnway
All backup catchers in MLB at best, IMO. Still valuable, nice little players to have around.
Ibarra has some promise… but we’re a long way from handing him the keys.
Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor
Yeah, most reports are along the lines of “ML ready bat, but we don’t know if he can catch, or call a game, or throw the ball.”
I’m patiently waiting to see him perform in the minors to see how he is. BBS, since I think you go to more minor league games than all of us combined, it’s up to you to report back a la that awesome fan post you wrote last week.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
totaly
Im going to Pawtucket the sixteenth and NH to see Portland again the 26th, and Im done.
I can tell you that I love Lavarnway’s makeup though.
I write a lot of MILB stuff like that fanpost at my blog Total Bases, I’ll post that stuff here more
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Aug 3, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Your description of Thoratic Outlet Syndrome
brought up more questions then answers! haha i’m sure the injury isn’t as awesome i’m currently picturing it.
What is the 4th option?
I think I’ve read that before.
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
I hate Hermida
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
I am, at the least, willing to give him some time with Turk and the Sox training crew
Most likely, he won’t make it, yeah, but I’ll give him some time in the system without judging the trade too harshly. Engel Beltre, who we gave up in the Gagne trade, is only starting to show promise for his tool-set this season, so maybe in two and a half years we’ll be really regretting giving up Mendez. But by then we’ll definitely know for sure whether Salty can ever be a regular at the big league level.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Aug 2, 2010 8:56 AM EDT reply actions
I like it
it’s a risk, but we didn’t give up anything incredible, and I still think Salty has the possibility of being a more effective player than Mendez does. I think it’s definitely worth the shot.
Let me put it this way: Cash, Brown, Molina or Salty?
Until Varitek is healthy, who would you rather have backing up V-Mart?
Aside from that, it is, as the OP points out – low risk for potential future rewards.
Exactly
At worst, he’s a monumental improvement over any of the 3 catchers we’ve had to callup or trade for this year when Tek and VMart went down. At best, he can be that catcher of the future. I mean, the ceiling isn’t as likely as the floor at this point but he’s a fine fill in for a position we have uncertainty at.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Wait until next year?
This trade confims the speculation tha the Sox are giving up on this season and preparing for next year. I have no issue with the Sox grabbing a catching prospect, but this is more of an off-season type of deal. Contending teams (terms used lightly with Red Sox 2010), look to add to the current team for the stretch run THIS season. And don’t give the “asking price for bullpen help too high” kook-aid, Kerry Wood was acquired for a bag of balls.
If they were giving up on this year
wouldn’t they have traded Beltre and maybe V-Mart?
In the end, I don’t think there is much beyond what is on the surface going on here. Yes, the Red Sox wanted to get some bullpen help. But other teams simply wanted too high a price for the few arms that were available.
There is still plenty of time to make a run this season and we are getting healthier and healthier. Look at the way the starting pitching has performed through these last two cycles.
The Salty trade had less to do with now vs future – it was simply a buy-low opportunity deal.
Not necessarily...
There’s nothing available on the farm or in this offseason to replace an All-Star catcher or third baseman with. Further, the exceptional depth of this coming draft class means that any compensatory picks would be that much more valuable. Trading VMart and Beltre would mean we’d given up on this year and on a couple of future years.
I think, anyway…
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Aug 2, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions
You'd still be weighing the value of the picks versus any players you might pick up in return.
And usually (not always) existing players – especially ones you might get for two guys who are currently in the top 3 at their positions (3B & C) – are going to be more valuable than compensatory picks.
For next year, we’ll still be looking at signing either these guys or trading for/signing their replacements so the lack of options at these spots in the farm is not really an issue to the question of whether we are giving up on this year.
THE Kerry Wood!?
He of 6 ERA and highest WHIP of his career? I’d think twice about a bag of balls, Yanks got fleeced there for giving anything for him.
VMart is back but Tek seems to have 0 timetable for the time being, our back up catchers shouldn’t be playing baseball. I’m assuming that he will be called up sometime in the near future at Cash’s expense.
The reliever market was tough this year, no where near the number of top relievers that were expected to be dealt actually got moved besides Capps and a couple others depending on your definition of “top” the price simply was too high. I would have been more mad if Theo had dealt Kelly or Kalish for Downs.
The whole thing comes down to this: What did we need besides relief help (which was gained by the announcement of Bowden and Felix to join in the pen)? Nothing that I can think of that isn’t going to be replaced as Pedey, Tek and Ellsbury come back. They even went as far as to start paying our top positional prospect major league money starting this year in Kalish. They knew that even if they made a major acquisition, it probably wouldn’t make a major impact on the team, we have no room for a Lance Berkman or Dan Haren on the team this year, a reliever would have been nice but in the scheme of things how much difference can 1 reliever make in 1/3 of a season pitching one inning every other day? Not as much as Kalish or Kelly may provide. Standing pat was the only thing they could do and hope that when Pedey is back (can’t help but notice we are 5-1 since VMarts return as well) things will fully turn around.
It’s just a really weird season for us, playing so well with players that shouldn’t have been playing and then falling apart a bit there towards the ASB as VMart and Pedey hit the DL, finally hurting us too much. I mean, if we had stayed healthy this team would be right there with the Yankees at the top of the division but the injuried handcuffed us to staying pat.
They aren’t giving in though. Beltre would have made a great addition to any team who considers themselves in the race, he’s an instant upgrade over a lot of third basemen as he’s re-established himself as an All-Star talent. But they didn’t trade him, he’s still here.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Wood
The Yankees do not have to give ANY players for Wood, just cash OR some stiff to be named later. We were looking for a 7th inning pitcher; Wood pitched the 7th against Tampa yesterday and struck out the side. Look, I’m not saying Wood is the saviour here, but he could help the Sox and it didn’t cost any golden prospects to get him. It was worth a shot.
Yes, the Sox are not actively giving up and I didn’t expect they would sell players. They are staying in the ring, just not punching back.
I’m just saying that Kerry Wood is not an upgrade really over anyone we already have, it would have been irresponsible for Theo to have given anything for him since we already have/had three Kerry Wood’s named Oki, RamRam and MDC.
One inning against Tampa isn’t going to change that he’s pitching to a FIP of over 5 this year not really worth giving up anything for since he offers 0 improvement for the team. Bringing back Felix and Bowden is a much better solution than trading for Wood.
They can’t punch back is my point. With what? What could they have done? They can’t trade for a solid reliever because of cost and we don’t have a large need anywhere else. OF spots are covered and with incredible depth right now given the surprising returns of Darnell and Nava with Reddick, Kalish and Hall all able to contribute and Ellsbury on his was back soon. 3B-SS-1B-C are back to normal with productive starters, Pedey will be back soon and Lowrie isn’t that bad of an option there with Hall. The rotation is finally where it was supposed to be with Beckett-Lester-Buchholz-Lackey and Dice-K. Then pen was it and the only way we found we could improve it was to convert Felix and bring him and Bowden back, a suitable “punch back” to not wanting to trade Kelly.
The only real option that Theo had was to hold steady, improve from within, wait for injuries to return and hope that it will be enough to get us back in the wild card hunt.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
What about this....
OK, Wood sucks, but he would not have cost the Sox ANYHING they would miss, i.e. a million bucks.
How about this: Wood was not the only relieve to be traded at the deadlne. How about taking some combination of the players traded for Saltiamacchia and use THOSE players to land Farnsworth or Dotel? Instead, Theo chose to use the assets to take a flyer on a minor league prospect/project that may never play a game in Boston. Couldn’t those players be used to land a decent bullpen arm that can actually play in he major leagues now?
The fact that he would have cost anything, makes it something the Sox would have missed, even cash money for a position he probably wouldn’t improve.
From what’s I’ve gathered, Lambo, one of the Pirates returns on Dotel was one of the Dodger’s top 10 prospects, and they got McDonald too and also, Dotel is another one of those marginal “is it worth it?” upgrades. Farnsworth and Ankiel were traded for two ML ready players and a pretty decent AA pitcher, we probably would have been forced to take on Ankiel’s contract as well with that buyout, which we wouldn’t do. Neither of the players we traded are proven at any high level. The Nats got a pretty good (potentially overrated) catching prospect for Capps.
I’m looking back at these RP trades from this year and I’m not seeing one that was moved that we should have bothered getting considering the price. Capps would have cost us a good prospect for a pitcher who is inconsistent. Farnsworth would have cost a good bit AND we would have to take on another OF with a contract that wouldn’t have made it worth it. Dotel was a marginal upgrade that cost the Dodgers a top 10 prospect.
In terms of cost and the product received, how many of those guys would have made a bigger impact than what Bowden and Felix can bring to the pen? I’m thinking 0.
Theo did the right thing, either go with a huge improvement in the bullpen and trade away a top prospect or do nothing at all and improve from within because the middling relievers wouldn’t improve us enough for the cost entailed and we’ve already gone that route this year, the see what sticks method didn’t work out too well, we needed a proven thing, and even then, Theo learned a lot from the Gagne trade.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Yeah, I'm just not seeing any Saito or Wagner in any of the RPs that moved.
I concur with your statement that at this point – our farm options look better than what we could acquire externally.
Theo built this farm system for a reason. This is the year to use it.
There's no use in trading for the sake of trading.
I trust Felix/Bowden over any of the more marginal relievers on the market, and giving a top prospect for a guy who really might make a difference would make sense in a different situation, but not in this injury-marred season at 5.5 games back.
I don't like to give up
Maybe I’m just more compettitive than some here. I know that we will never get to play the 2010 season again, the team is in striking distance and playing well. I say go for it. But that’s just me.
There's a great post on fangraphs about just this.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-better-part-of-valor/
“In the lead up to the trade deadline, the Red Sox laid fairly low, acquiring Jarrod Saltalamacchia and shipping out Ramon Ramirez, both minor transactions that will have little effect on how the team plays the rest of the year. The Dodgers did the opposite, engineering a trio of trades that saw them ship out Blake DeWitt and six minor league players in exchange for Ted Lilly, Octavio Dotel, Ryan Theriot, and Scott Podsednik.
The contrast in approaches couldn’t be any more striking. While Boston may not be resigned to finishing as an also-ran, they also refused to throw good money after bad, making a trade that would have, at best, pushed them from longshot to unlikely. The Dodgers, however, pushed their chips in to the middle and bet on the the team justifying the investment over the final two months of the season."
“There is a time for bold action, and there’s a time to accept that it probably isn’t your year. The passive approach that the Red Sox took to the trade deadline was probably the better course. Barring a miracle, neither team will make the playoffs, but at least the Red Sox will still have their farm system mostly intact.”
Oh my - there's a great line in one of the comments on that article
In response to someone else pointing out that they could use a bullpen arm, “Judy” says:
They have some bullpen arms, even traded one away, what they clearly could have used is a good relief pitcher.
Excellent …
Who's giving up?
I personally still think we have a shot at the division and get a burr under my butt every time someone says things like “Well we have to root for NY over TB this weekend.”
AAAARGGH!!!
There are still a lot of games to be played.
I like the deal
As Rogue Nine pointed out, Salty is certainly no worse than the replacement catchers we’re throwing out there now. And who knows? Perhaps Salty will actually be a above-average offensive catcher in a year or two. I’m doubtful, but relievers who can throw in the mid 90s are a dime a dozen these days. We really didn’t give up much of anything for a “spaghetti play” at a position without much depth.
Remember when Saltalamacchia was rumored to cost Buchholz? Aren’t you glad we didn’t make that deal?
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
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