FanPost

Jacoby Ellsbury, most overrated player in baseball?


First of all, yes, I am a Yankees fan.  I will give you that some of your super hyped players have turned out very well, like Bucholtz and Pedroia, but Ellsbury has been entirely overrated.  I'm just getting tired of people on ESPN and Red Sox fans going crazy over him when it's completely unwarranted.  Let me show you why.

Ellsbury's career wRC+ is 110.  Mystery Player A (hereafter referred to as MPA) has a career wRC+ of 109.  However, if you do a 3 year weighted regression, with more recent years counting more, Ellsbury's wRC+ is 106, while MPA's is 1.15.  For those of you who don't understand what that means, it means that MPA has improved more over recent years than Ellsbury has, so even though they have nearly identical career wRC+, MPA has been better recently.

Well, what about Ellsbury's defense?  I always hear Red Sox fans brag about how much ground Ellsbury covers in center, or left these days.  Well, so far in his career, his UZR/150 has been a 7.  MPA's has been a 19.5, admittedly in a smaller sample size.

So conclusions?  While they have similar career numbers offensively, MPA has surpassed Ellsbury recently (and this is not because of Ellsbury being out most of this year, his play time didn't effect these stats).  Defensively, both are very good, but MPA has been spectacular.

So who is this Mystery Player A?  None other than Gritty, Gutty, Brett Gardner.  That's right, Ellsbury hasn't even been as good as Gardner.  However, how much do you hear about Gardner?  Not much, because even Yankee fans know that he's a decent player who can play everyday, but he's not super.  Red sox fans seem to have a hard time being objective with their upcoming outfielder.  This mentality really shows up in MLB 10 the Show, if any of you play it.  Ellsbury is one of the best CF in that game, but Gardner is rated so low that the computer usually moves him down to AAA because his hitting is rated so poorly.

So why am I posting this?  Mainly just to rant, but seriously guys...  Brag about Buchholtz, he's been great.  Brag about Pedroia, even though he looks like a bridge troll he's been great too.  But Ellsbury?  Seriously?  He hasn't been anything special yet, so don't pretend like he has.

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