The Case Against Selling

I lay out my case as to why, whether or not the postseason is attainable, selling might not be the best idea for the Red Sox.

over 1 year ago Ben Buchanan 35 comments 0 recs |

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I do like the draft picks, and

I agree that you have to take into consideration the value of the return and the value of the picks. One problem I have with the draft picks is that we can’t guarantee that we get the guy(s) we wan’t. Something else that has to be taken into account is the major league readiness and the position played by the picks/prospects. We could possibly move one way or the other if a pick/prospect is in a need based position. I like what we got in the draft, but how long will we have to wait for these guys to mature? IMO, at this moment, nobody can say with certainty which is the better option.

"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
I hate Hermida
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Jul 26, 2010 3:02 PM EDT reply actions

Well, certainly, but only because both are so unknown

But we at least have a list of players eligible for next year’s draft, and I’m sure the scouting department has already started ranking those players, so they at least have an idea of a hierarchy (although that always can change). And I don’t think picks should be picked based on position. Even with Pedroia at 2B if the best pick available is far and away a stud 2B in the making, you take him and worry about it later.

And guy’s mature at different levels. Prospects generally can be closer to the majors in a trade, but with picks you tend to get to set their development agenda all on your own, so it’s a moot point.

Fact is, unless we get another situation such-as when the Dodgers offered up Carlos Santana for Casey Blake, it’s probably best to just wait. I really love this upcoming draft, and potentially 4 extra high picks would be a great boon provided no one blows Theo out of the water for a trade.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Jul 26, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm fine with taking the picks,

but I’ll be mad if we’re out of it and don’t try and shop these guys, if only to see what they’re worth.

"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
I hate Hermida
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Jul 26, 2010 3:30 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Well, yeah

If we’re completely out of it and Detroit offers us Jacob Turner+ for Beltre then certainly, probably should do that deal.

But I don’t think we’ll be that completely out of it by the trade deadline, and I don’t think we’ll get offered quite enough to make it worth it.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Jul 26, 2010 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Just for what it's worth

There are no real 3B prospects we could likely pick up that’d be worth our while.

I’ve looked into it.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Jul 26, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Unless someone has a suggestion. I just haven't found anyone on a team that will trade them worthwhile.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Jul 26, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Most of the good ones are possessed by bad team's

Chisenhall, Moustakas, Alvarez,

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Jul 26, 2010 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm not a minors expert, but I have read a couple scouting reports

and looked at the stats. What do you see in Chisenhall?

"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
I hate Hermida
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Jul 26, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I really like his swing

And I think he can be at least average at 3B. He’s 21 and in AA, so he’s about where the Sox like their top guys to be. His biggest concerns are his approach and OBP.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Jul 26, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

This has to be a joke.

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/mlb/news/story?id=5411279

"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
I hate Hermida
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Jul 26, 2010 3:38 PM EDT reply actions

Who would want either of them?

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Jul 26, 2010 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm interested in Ramirez & Delcarmen

I’ve got some yard work I need to take care of. Do they have a pickup? I’m offering sandwiches, iced tea, and twenty bucks each.

by 415SoxFan on Jul 26, 2010 3:57 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Pawtucket?

Lowell? Maybe Portland?

by CelticPride on Jul 26, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions

MDC does have decent radar gun, and has had his moments this year

by dsharp on Jul 26, 2010 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions

i feel like his speed has fluctuated a frightening amount this year

and he’s just been completely incapable of getting anyone to swing and miss this year. Or find the strike zone reliably. The only way in which he’s been good is BABIP luck. This is the same problem he had last year and doesn’t appear to be getting any better. He might be injured, he might just be done, either way, no one in their right mind would want him at this point.

by wolf9309 on Jul 27, 2010 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions

I've said it before and it bears repeating:

Any team with a couple of corpses to offer up can have Ramirez and Okajima, but I’d rather hold onto Delcarmen for now. Put him on the DL for the rest of the season so he can’t hurt us anymore. He’ll come back in April and pitch well, as he usually does at the start of the season, and we can trade him then for something more than we could get for him now. Maybe a bucket of balls instead of a rotting carcass.

by RSNexile on Jul 26, 2010 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions

IF the Sox are really selling....

then move Beltre and get something in return. But outside of Beltre who does the Sox have who are expendable and not needed in 2011? Papelbon? With how terrible the bullpen has been, keeping Paps seems the smart thing to do.

by SoxAcumen on Jul 26, 2010 6:39 PM EDT reply actions

Is Beltre that much more expendable than Martinez?

Unless they pick up Iannetta, Victor is pretty necessary too.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Jul 26, 2010 7:45 PM EDT up reply actions

You're the guy that thinks they won't sign Vic,

so wouldn’t that make him expendable?

"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
I hate Hermida
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Jul 26, 2010 8:01 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I’m the guy that thinks he won’t catch for more than 2 more years, and that his camp will probably be looking for more than he’ll be worth.

That makes him probably a bad deal in the long run. Doesn’t make him any more expendable in 2011 without a viable replacement.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Jul 26, 2010 8:14 PM EDT up reply actions

I'm with you on those points.

Do you think they’ll give him a bad contract just because there is no one else? If Theo doesn’t think he can resign him, then that makes him possibly expendable in my book.

"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
I hate Hermida
Twitter: @BoldandBrash

by BoldandBrash on Jul 26, 2010 8:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

I think they'd much rather pick up Iannetta

And take the draft picks from the Type-A, really. Makes a lot more financial sense

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Jul 26, 2010 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions

No one's mentioned this player's name, so I'll throw it out there...

Papi.

He’d definitely be in demand among AL teams, and he’s also definitely on the decline despite his good year since the awful start.

Also, Mike Lowell, who can DH as well as cover a couple of positions, will be back soon.

If we’re selling, Papi is a practical move because of his bringing the most back.

by dsharp on Jul 26, 2010 9:42 PM EDT reply actions

Papi has 10 and 5 rights, and there is no chance in hell he would waive them for any reason

Asking him to would probably make him pissed off the rest of the year as well.

by wolf9309 on Jul 27, 2010 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions

And Lowell, Francona said, will be activated friday

incidentally the day before the trade deadline. I’d be shocked if he wasn’t involved in a deal somehow.

by wolf9309 on Jul 27, 2010 9:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Certainly the OPTIONS for an overhaul are there

Players that could potentially be in another uniform:

The dialogue on who to keep, or are we buyers or sellers is interesting. It seems like this article is the precursor to the hotstove season. Regardless of the outcome this season next year will be interesting. IMO, we need to resign 3rd base, catcher and revamp the bullpen. the list below is not exhaustive but gives a good idea of where the team is at.

Free Agents:
Catcher V-Mart
3rd Base Lowell
3rd Base Beltre also player option
OF Hermida

Club Options:
DH Papi
U IF/OF Hall

Arbitration Eligbile (Sox have alot of ongoing 1 year deals):
LF/CF Ellsbury
RP Papelbon
RP Ramon Ramirez
RP Okijama
RP Delcarmen
SS/ UIFJed Lowrie
SP Buchholz
RP Atchison

Not Sure but think Arbitration Eligible:
RP Bowden
RP Bard
SP Doubront

"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis

by Dave D on Jul 27, 2010 4:54 AM EDT reply actions

Technically Hermida's not a free agent,

He’ll be arbitration eligible. I say technically because there’s pretty much no chance in hell he doesn’t get non-tendered.

by wolf9309 on Jul 27, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions

And Bowden, Bard, and Doubront aren't arb eligible

it’s generally 3 full years of service time, and 2 of those three guys only have a couple weeks- Bard has about a year.

Buchholz and Lowrie are also not Arb eligible yet. Neither is Atchison (he’s actually on a great deal, where the Sox hold team options for very close to league minimum for the next two years). Okajima, Delcarmen, and Ramirez, I can’t see sticking around- maybe Ramirez if they think he’ll take a pay cut in arbitration.

Hall’s option for next year is less of a team option and more of a guaranteed $500k buyout he is getting. This year, he’s making $8.4 million (though the sox are only paying $400k) and next year the Sox would be on the hook for his whole $9.25 million if they picked up the option.

by wolf9309 on Jul 27, 2010 9:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks for the clarification I just found COTs on google that is a better reference site gives good details

I imagine Buchholz and Bard will be offered a multi-year deal? Rather than trade the farm for a journeyman I would like to see some of the AA and AAA pitchers come up in relief now and just see what happens as long as the talent evaluators think they are ready. I think Oki, Ram Ram, and MDC need a change of scenery to the NL and they could soldier on. Hall and Hermida need to go too…

"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis

by Dave D on Jul 27, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions

Buchholz seems likely. They'll sit on Bard until arbitration most likely.

The only thing with Buck is that his peripherals haven’t been as impressive as his ERA. Then again, that didn’t stop them from signing Lester after ‘08, and that’s turned out nicely.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Jul 27, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah this definitely seems like the time to get Buchholz to a long-term deal

his peripherals, like you said, haven’t been as good as his results, but he’s also gotten over what I saw as his biggest issue- which was getting too easily rattled and losing control. He looks comfortable and dominant most of the time on the mound now. I’d love to see a 1-2 of Lester and Buchholz for a long time to come.

by wolf9309 on Jul 27, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

Sox NOT selling

First, they have a $170 million investment in this season and are still very much in the race, even if it doesn’t feel like it. The upper management would not ALLOW Theo to give up on the season in July a few games out of the playoffs with half the team about to come back from the DL, and they shouldn’t.
Who in their right mind is going to give up a blue chip prospect for a couple months of Beltre or a recently injured V-Mart?
This is Boston, we go for it now every year. Put the best team out there and give it the best shot.

by Scoop1981 on Jul 27, 2010 7:20 AM EDT reply actions

I’d bet there is a strong market for a Beltre or VMart. Both are elite players at their positions. Rentals happen all the time, Texas gave up their most hyped prospect in a while with Smoak for 16 appearances by Cliff Lee. We could get something decent.

But I agree, we shouldn’t sell, especially since the players I see us selling are the same ones I’d like to see back with us next year. It would be dumb to trade them and then re-sign them, gaining prospects and than losing picks.

"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.

by Rogue Nine on Jul 27, 2010 9:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Nobody would give up a blue chip prospect for a guy having an MVP season in Beltre?

Or a top offensive catcher whose recent injury was a broken thumb? Maybe not blue chip for Martinez, but certainly a good haul. The question is “Good enough?”

By the way, the “going for it every year” attittude is the kind of shit that kept us from winning for decades.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Jul 27, 2010 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions

well yeah it is, but

there is a difference between sending all our prospects off for rentals and not selling. I genuinely think that with a couple of minor additions (really just a good bullpen arm or two), this team still has a very good chance of competing- still 62 games to go. With Pedroia and hopefully Ellsbury coming back soon, it just doesn’t seem like a good time to sell.

We could get a good prospect for Beltre, absolutely no question- personally, though, I still don’t see any better third base options sitting out there for next year and would very much like the chance to re-sign him without giving up a first draft pick. Obviously, I’d personally (not that it matters) rethink it if a probable future star was offered, but that’s not something I’d count on. Plus, I still think this team can (and will!) make the playoffs.

by wolf9309 on Jul 27, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions