Will Adrian Beltre Be One-And-Done With The Red Sox?
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 8:01 AM EDT
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When the Red Sox signed Adrian Beltre to a one year deal this offseason, the expectations were pretty tame. Great defense, certainly, but nothing much above average in the batter's box. So far, the results have been almost the reverse. Beltre has dominated at the plate, leading all third basemen in wOBA--far better than expected. He's not been quite what we were hoping for defensively, but he's still well above average at the hot corner. Such production leaves the Red Sox with a tricky question come the end of the season: what to do with free agent Beltre?
The immediate response has to be "bring him back at almost any cost." And it's certainly tempting simply to go with that. But there are certainly some red flags that must at least give us pause.
To start with, there's the question of just how much better he has actually been offensively. After all, that .366 BABIP sticks out like a sore thumb when compared to a .294 career average. But even taking BABIP alone is a mistake. Consider, for instance, Beltre's increased line drive rate. Sitting at 23.4 percent, it's a good four percent over his career average, and going by the old add 12 points rule, a .366 BABIP isn't particularly far off.
On the other hand, there's also something to be said for luck when it comes to line drive hitting, so what else is up with Beltre? Interestingly, it's a matter of plate discipline--and in what would seem to be a bad way on the surface. Adrian Beltre is walking less than almost any other year in his career, swinging at more pitches outside of the zone than just about every year, and making more contact--particularly on balls outside the zone. This has resulted, perhaps surprisingly, in a tight group of line drives to right field leading to a .348 BABIP to that field--an area where he had previously had significant problems in his career. It doesn't precisely seem sustainable.
But then there's the power to consider. Beltre's ISO is higher than any year other than his monster 2004, as is his HR/FB rate. This isn't purely an effect of Fenway, either, as Beltre's road numbers are noticeably better than at home. When combined with his high contact rates, you do have to give Beltre some credit for his season. He generally seems to be a guy who is seeing and hitting the ball better than ever before. Playing in Fenway instead of Safeco can't hurt, either. While I don't think anyone could expect another season of wOBA over 400, but certainly a return to his Seattle form seems unlikely as well.
Then there's the defense. The biggest complaint against Beltre so far has been errors, and certainly so far he's had some troubles in that department. At -2.6, his errors have cost more runs than in any other season of his career. Unfortunately, this seems to be a rather consistent decline, as he has gotten worse in that regard every year since 2004. His range, while still well above average, is also not precisely what it used to be. At 6.5 runs above average, 2010 will likely end up on the low end of the middle-of-the-pack compared to his other seasons. He is not likely to pull a Lowell, who was never consistently a high range guy, but he might not last as a plus defensive player for the entirety of any lengthy contract.
There are some other factors to take into consideration as well, such as the contract year effect. Is this just another, less impressive rendition of his 2004 tear that will disappear the moment he is locked up for multiple years?
How about the Red Sox' payroll and roster? If they're willing to spend up to the luxury tax, with about $21 million in dead contracts coming off the budget, what do they have to spend on other than Beltre, maybe Victor Martinez if nothing comes of the various catcher trade rumors, and the bullpen? Factor in what Beltre's already getting paid and the Sox could shell out a good chunk of change while still being able to drop some on getting a legitimate middle reliever.
Or consider who would replace him? The list of free agent third baseman is abysmal, with the best performers in the game locked up for the forseeable future. The Sox have to be willing to overpay to turn a below average player into, say, a four win player (by WAR) like Beltre can probably be expected to be--when you get a relatively filled out team like the Red Sox will likely be, the value of each extra win increases. Add in a farm system that won't spit out a third baseman for another couple of years at least, and Beltre is suddenly looking heads and tails better than the second best option.
Ultimately it will be impossible to make a decision on Beltre until we see what the market is. With an MVP-type season to ride, Scott Boras will be trying to milk every last dollar and every last year out of a player who is likely to join Carl Crawford as the top target on the market. If he comes looking for incredibly high figures like four years, $80 million, the Sox will most certainly have to turn on their heel and perhaps look into a trade, or even at moving Youkilis to third (far from the most desirable option, to be sure). Hopefully they can get something reasonable done, but no matter what, they shouldn't be going in looking to pay for 2010 Beltre, because we likely won't be seeing him again.
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Let him walk
The guy has already proven himself to be a guy who thrives in his contract year.
I know it will be tough to let the guy walk.
But we gotta do it.
I hate the contract year argument
does it mean that he’s not trying the other years? That sounds bogus. I just don’t get it. Also, what about last year?
I don't 100% buy it, either.
I can see the argument being made for minor improvements, but not sizable ones.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Last year he had a bunch of injuries.
But it is a little odd that his monster years come with money on the line. Entirely possible it’s coincidence, but worrying.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah admittedly I was kind of baiting with that...
It just seems like a ridiculous correlation to me. I don’t think it’s ever looked like he doesn’t play hard.
I would let him walk, too.
He’s had two impressive offensive seasons in his entire career — both in his walk year — with a couple other years where he was acceptable.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Jul 23, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Really hard to keep him
Boras + contract year production does not end well 85% of the time for the team. Add in his production in between contract years and it’s even more worrisome. Anything more then a 2yr deal is a pass to me, and there is no way Boras goes for 2.
Like last off acquiring long term offensive production is paramount.
Beltre is a short term option, and I think Crawford and Werth are similarly more short vs long term. Werth I think is the best option of the 3 – but like Beltre what is his production worth over 4-5 years?
Between 3B and LF production will need to be acquired, right now Beltre would be considered but I wouldn’t take his odds on returning.
I'd take the contract Beltre will get over the contract Crawford will get or Werth anyday
Partly because we should have prospects ready to take outfield positions in not too long, and partly because he’s just a more useful player.
Doesn’t limiting a 31-year-old to a two year contract sound a little silly? I mean, certainly 2 years would be ideal, but over 3 years, it’s not like he’s Jeter-aged or anything. Certainly, shorter contracts are always better for the team, but you can’t get them all the time.
It sounds silly - but doesn't 35 sound old for a 3B with Q's at the dish?
I mean, by 35 is defense is going to be average at best, and if it’s his offense that’s too carry his contract I don’t see enough consistency that’s good for a 4 yr deal.
I really hope they can re-sign him
Certainly his offense won’t be sustainable over years and his defense may decline a bit- however both of those can decline a decent amount and he’ll still be a great third baseman.
I do realize, there’s a decent chance that Mr. Boras prices him out of a reasonable contract and he goes to somebody more desperate, but a few comments he’s made recently have given me a little hope- the other day he was talking about how he’s a family man and not sure how much longer he wants to play, so he may be more amenable to a shorter term contract. I think if he’ll agree to a 2 or even 3 year contract, he’s worth quite a bit per year.
that I'll agree with
Maybe a significantly lower player option for a 4th year, but I wouldn’t do more than 3 at a high rate.
I agree, I'd sign him. It's not w/out risk, for sure
It’s a 3 or 4 year deal, 2 will be a non-starter for Beltre/Boras. Hopefully the Sox can get a 3 year deal with a cheaper player option on the end. I’d pay him $12M over 3 and a player option for $8M for the fourth year.
If I was to guess, the next 3B in the system is Vitek. That’s 3-4 years away. Middlebrooks could become that guy, but he’s got some fundamental K/BB stuff to work out.
But here’s a question: If they can’t get Beltre on their terms, are Theo & Co comfortable with Lowrie at 3B for a season or two? Probably depends on how he plays this year, and certainly some power would be lost, but its probably a better backup plan than the other 3B on the FA market.
I doubt that'll happen
I think that he’s gonna have to play a lot of baseball before they’re sufficiently reassured in his health to rely on him.
That would probobly get it done
I don’t see many teams among the possible bidders offering more than 3X $12+ that if the past couple of FA markets are any indication. That seems to be about the benchmark for the good, reasonably young and healthy veterans out there now. It also helps that Beltre is considered an above average fielder, so his vaule is expanded to NL teams. This is in contrast to the Vlad and Abreu deal recently.
I'm hesitant in giving Beltre too many years..or the number of years he is going to want.
I’m much more ignorant about the Sox minors than others, but I like to entertain the the thought that in a couple years either Lars or Rizzo comes up and Youk moves to 3rd.
My Take
Yes, it is likely Beltre signs with another team due to the dynamics of the FA market and past history. That being said, the FA market is not what it used to be, obviously. If you look at the potential buyers out there, the list is not huge. Of course we all know it only takes two to make a market, but the “stupid” factor will be reduced and I don’t see Beltre getting more than a 3 year deal from anybody; that will probobly be his benchmark, the first team to offer a decent 3 year deal wins.
Keep in mind that Beltre was coming off an injury-plagued 2009, so this season may not be as great an abberation as it may seem. Also, we have to consider that he is hitting in a far superior lineup now, seeing better pitches, etc. And what are the Sox options if they don’t re-sign Beltre? 1. Trade for a 1B (fire up the A-gon machine) and move Youk to 3rd. 2. Go bridge again and bring in Inge, Wiggington, etc. for a year. 3. Find the next Bill Mueller.
Beltre will simply go to the higest bidder amog a group to include the Angels, Rangers, White Sox, Braves, Detroit and the Red Sox. He signed a $10 mil. one year deal, so is he unreasonalbe to ask for a multi-year deal with a raise to, say $12mil X 3? I don’t think so, but the market will decide.
He's coming off an injury plagued '09
But every other year excluding his only other non-injured contract year was offensively disappointing in comparison, Safeco aside.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Not on the road.
Beltre’s road numbers have been very good consistently. I.E. not ‘offensively disappointing’ in non-contract years.
If anything as your article indicates – I don’t see his current production as that unexpected, now that he’s out of Safeco and LA.
My expectation is that he will be priced too high by Boras – more than Theo will be willing to pay.
Offensively dissapointing compared to this year and '04.
But they’ve never been at a level like this. It’s always been a matter of a .340-.360 type of wOBA on the road. Even this year, as I say in the article, his Fenway numbers are surprisingly well below his road numbers, so it’s not entirely a matter of Fenway either.
Thus why I suggest a middle ground. Not disappointing, just disappointing if you’re expecting ’04 or ’10 all over again.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
oh - i agree he's definitely had a bump up, even on the road
I’ll accept your qualifier.
Ultimately, most long careers are marked by one or two great ones and others not so great. In Beltre’s case, they happen to be in contract years. Coincidence? I dunno. Its hard for me to grok that a player can truly ‘turn it on’ one year over another.
While Beltre does seem to be ‘seeing’ the ball better – he’s clearly just plain able get wood on a lot more pitches right now – he definitely is benefiting from some luck over prior years.
His ratio of extra-base hits to hits is just under 37%, virtually identical to his career average (36.7%) – so he’s not really hitting the ball any harder. He’s just benefiting from hitting the ball more often and getting a few balls going over or off the wall (that would have maybe been a double or a single or even a fly out in a different year).
And the market will be much higher than $12 million
Someone will be willing to pay at least partially for that BABIP, he’s got a reputation as a plus defender, and he may well finish the season an MVP candidate. $$$
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
If the Sox do not sign Beltre what are the options?
Beltre definitely has the upperhand in this process. Beltre has a least 3 good years left so I would think Boras will look for at least 5…Boras has Theo by the short curlies on this one and I am sure he is enjoying it cuz’ Theo usually ignores him…
1. Like Ben pointed out the options are not there in free agency – a replacement would have to come by trade. So, who do you give up and who do you get in return?
2. Assuming Youk stays at first, the Sox would need a comparable repalcement to provide both offense and defense at 3B. So, if Youk moves to 3rd (unlikely) is Lars Anderson the answer at 1B??? All the Sox accomplish in that scenario is to plug one hole at 3rd and create another at first and essentially downgrade 2 positions?
3. Organizationally, (and it is a longshot and a step down in both offense and defense) before Lowrie was injured some conjectured he could possibly replace Lowell. I guess that could work until he his hurt and Bill Hall jumps in – not even sure I could stomach that option…
4. Oh yeah, how does the need to sign a catcher with a bat factor into this? I think we got one now who is on the DL and in the last year of his contract V-MART?
5. My only other thought is a blockbuster this winter that would see many changes and new faces in the lineup by finding a new catcher and 3rd baseman via trade…and, I would not even speculate as to who/where that would come from but it would be a multi team deal.
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
I think scenario 2 is completely reasonable. I don’t think there’s much more for Lars to gain by playing at AAA for another year next year, and I still believe in him enough as a top prospect to start him at 1B.
he's only shown a couple of weeks of being able to hit at AAA
so let’s slow down a little. He’s looking good lately, but lets see how that lasts.
Agreed. Because of Youk, he can be replaced by a 1B or even C if V-Mart is re-signed.
Still, he’s worth re-signing at a reasonable price and a 3 years or less contract. It can even work if the Adrian Gonzales rumors come to fruition (please please please please please), but we’d have to say goodbye to Papi as DH would have to be manned by one of them. Then again, I’ll bet Youk is versatile enough to learn LF.
He's versatile enough
But what I’ve read, he doesn’t like it out there.
And popular opinion around these parts is that Youk’s days as a plus-defender at 3rd are behind him. I’m not sure if I’m 100% behind that, but there is an argument to be made for it.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Yeah, he's really much more valuable at first given how much of his value comes from picking balls.
Youk is having a negative year at first in range runs, actually. Likely a statistical blip UZR wise, but probably also means he’s losing a step. He’ll be average at best at third, and when you lose his defense at first…it’s far from the optimal choice.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions
No
Move Youk to third and sign Gonzalez
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Jul 23, 2010 10:49 AM EDT reply actions
we can't sign Gonzalez
because he isn’t going to be a free agent.
Also, the Padres are in first place. Barring a massive collapse, there’s no reason for them to move him before next year’s trade deadling- and even then, only if they’re out of contention.
Beltre resigns on a 4 or 5 year deal for between 12-15 mil. per.
Youk is not half the 3b Beltre is and having to play the more demanding position would take away from his offensive production. Even if the Sox trade for Gonzalez in the offseason, let him DH, or DH Youk.
I'll take the under on that
Given the recent FA markets, I don’t see Beltre getting close to that type of money. I believe many teams, rightly so, will be hesitant to pay a premium with his production so uneven year to year.
Next year's draft is extremely deep.
Those comp picks would be nice.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
I figured if I mentioned compensation when it came to an MVP-type of season
Someone might throw a shoe at me.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
This cracks my mom up every time she sees it:
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Give him credit
Bush had serious shoe dodging skills.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm it really hurt...I'm going to have a lump there!
Not Bush:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5D5oKEVqQJg
Austin “Danger” Powers……Danger is my middle name
Crazy
Have you seen Youk at 3rd? he is fine there and came up as a third baseman. I would not hesitate to move Youk there. As far as DH, no way Youk or A-Gon DH. I’m not sure about A-gon, but Youk is a Gold Glove player at 1B. I believe the Sox will look to get V-Mart signed up for a 3-4 year deal, moving him to DH in a year or two. He could still be a fill-in at 1B and an third catcher.
The Sox do have to address the need for a long-term solution for a big bat in the middle of the lineup, cuz Papi is likely done after this season.
I've seen Youk at 3rd
and I don’t think he is fine there. Moving him over weakens the teams twice, making them worse defensively and taking potency out of the best bat.
by SendEmHomeKim on Jul 23, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Agree, largely
Although I don’t believe Youk is a liability at third, I would prefer to keep him at his current position for the sake of stability (like the Cameron/Ellsbury swap), because I realize these are people and not a keystroke on a fantasy basebal team.
The issue is improving the team on an on-going basis. I guess I would be OK with the same lineup in 2011, although it is unlikely with the number of FA’s. If Papi looks good down the stretch here, I could see the Sox picking up the option, but I don’t think so.
I guess the argument is that his body-type isn't one that lends itself...
…to continued play at 3rd. I know that he came up as a 3B, but that doesn’t mean he can play there forever. And I certainly don’t think that Ortiz is done after this season. I think they can work out an incentive-laden deal to keep him here. And I’m for it.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
His range was down both statistically and observationally the last couple of trips over there.
He worked fine in ‘08, but I don’t want too see him there now, much less two years down the line.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 1:06 PM EDT up reply actions
Fielder
How about not signing beltre and moving youk to 3rd and putting Prince Fielder at 1st. Sign Papi to a two year three year contract, or just not sign papi.
He's available for trade though
Not that that’s something I necessarily support, trading for him that is.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Jul 23, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Why is everybody under that assumption again that Adrian Gonzalez is up for grabs?
he’s not. No reason to believe he will be yet.
Because they are Boston sports fans?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Divine right
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 23, 2010 12:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Is he not a Free Agent after this season?
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Jul 23, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
No, where did you read that?
He, Prince Fielder, and Pujols are all FA after NEXT year.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Jul 23, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
oh
I’m mistaken then.
I got that mixed up
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Jul 23, 2010 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
his guaranteed contract is up
but they have a team option for almost no money for next year. Makes sense then if you thought that.
Here's what I think is starange.
Presumably most people here think it’s an awesome idea to acquire Adrian Gonzalez, either through trade or eventually free agency, and keep him with a Teixeria-like 8 year 180 million$ deal. I agree, that would be awesome. But where’s the love for Adrian Beltre? The guy is a beast, plays nearly everyday and hard as he can, kills the ball like Gary Sheffield, is a vacuum at 3rd doing his part in making the pitching staff (which is and will be the bread and butter of this team) even better, yet people suggest low-balling him with 2 and 3 year deals? Youk and Gonzalez are both GG quality 1st baseman. Big deal. If you are paying Adrian Gonzalez 18 million a year, it’s to bang balls off the monster at a triple crown pace, not hold runners.
well I tend to agree with you in general
But Beltre can’t be expected to perform at this level over a contract and is older than Gonzalez. Which is why no one will give him a Teix-like contract. But yes, he’s an awesome player for sure. I do think a 3 year deal is reasonable, probably for both sides. He also won’t be as expensive as Gonzalez because of those things.
"Which is why no one will give him a Teix-like contract."
I think you meant to say “Which is why Theo will not give him a Teix-like contract.”
There is almost certainly certainly somebody out there who will over pay for him.
I’m sad, because I’ve always liked Beltre and was psyched that we got him. But I don’t see any way that he stays with the Red Sox, given the way Boras does business.
The only way he stays is if he, personally, has found ‘the love’ for this place and outright takes some sort of discount to stay. Otherwise, money talks and money says to go look for the highest payer.
you think someone will give a 31-year old with two good seasons a $180 million contract?
Cuz I don’t see it.
Well - maybe not THAT big
but ‘Big’. Bigger than the Red Sox will pay. And longer than they will want to pay him.
Actually, you're paying him to do both.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
You're right.
17.95 million for the bat, .05 for the runners. Maybe they should just save the money and see if Dave McCarty is still alive. John Olerud could still probably field the position.
by SendEmHomeKim on Jul 23, 2010 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not about holding runners on
It’s about keeping them from getting there by ground balls to the right side.
Why is a double off the wall for your team worth more than a double down the line against your team? There’s some weird psychological bias towards your own offense being somehow more valuable than your opponents.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I know we need 1b defense.
But what I’m saying is Adrian Gonzalez isn’t getting the money he’s going to get because of his glove, good as it might be. Neither is Pujols. The Sox can have Youk, Gonzalez and Beltre is my ultimate point.
by SendEmHomeKim on Jul 23, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
But arguably he is getting that money. If AGon were a DH, he wouldn't break 5/60 I'd bet.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't know about that Ben.
Would you say the same for Pujols? What about Fielder, who is a DH waiting to happen. Teixeria got 8/180 or so, right? Are you saying 3/120 of that was the glove?
by SendEmHomeKim on Jul 23, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Look at what DHs are getting paid now
it’s partly because they only have a maximum of half the market looking for their services (the AL), but now one is handing out contracts over $10 million a year to a DH.
You must be talking about DH's like Matsui and Damon, even Guerrero
older/old guys hanging around, not elite bats, despite Vlad’s resurgence. Take Miguel Cabrera for example. Would anyone have a problem slotting him into our DH spot next year? Didn’t think so. He makes big bucks to hit.
by SendEmHomeKim on Jul 23, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Cabrera is a fantastic player
and I still don’t like his contract. He plays first base well. He had to learn to play first base well (which he didn’t do in the past) because no one wants to pay a DH that amount of money. If the Sox had $20 million to spend through 2015, personally, I would prefer that it get spread out between several positions rather than all spent in the DH spot.
You make 20 million sound like so much.
Baseball teams, the Sox anyway, can afford it. What’s not to like about a contract that is likely going to send a guy like Cabrera to the HOF in your favorite teams uniform?
by SendEmHomeKim on Jul 23, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Put a bat in John Henry's hand.
And then tell me he’s being paid appropriately.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
this is true
it’s also irrelevant. Remember, this is a business. It’s purpose, in the end, is to make the owner money. If he wasn’t making significant money from the Sox, he would be a terrible businessman.
$20 million contracts to player A, B, and C
Keep $2 million contracts for reasonable relief pitching off the board, just as an example.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Smart GMs pay for a balance of the two.
Defense and offense. Theo understands that better than anyone. Ask Jason Bay.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Plenty of love here
I love Beltre’s play this season. Most here want to keep him around, but when the bidding starts anything can happen.
Let me throw this out there:
How would OTM readers feel about noticeably outbidding for fewer years? If someone was offering 4/60, and the Sox offered 2/36, how would you feel?
USG
Figures aren't exactly rigid, of course.
Just the idea of paying 2-3 million more for fewer years based on whatever the next contract offer is.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
I love the idea
I have no problem with paying more for a shorter contract, if that’s what needs to happen to make it a shorter contract. I don’t know that going up to $18 million/year sounds right to me, but it might be affordable if we have another influx of homegrown players coming in soon. Personally, I’d rather overpay him a bit for two years than have him making a lot of money for 4 years. Not sure exactly where the line gets drawn though.
Its an interesting idea because it can benefit the player.
If Team A offers 3 years at 45M and Team B offers 2 years at 40M, the player has the potential to go out and get a new contract in year 3 that is, say 12M and end up making 56M or whatever. As long as he gets at least 5M in that 3rd year, new contract, he is ahead of the game. Obviously I’m just using arbitrary numbers here to illustrate the point.
Papelbon is sort of playing this game year to year.
Obviously, it sucks for the player if they get injured and thus most players will prefer the longer term contract.
Whether it benefits the team depends on where their salary sits relative to the CBT and what their long-term plans are for the position.
The CBT's days are nearly done
after next year, they come up with a new agreement and the slate gets wiped clean (unless they agree otherwise, which is unlikely). I’m guessing they’ll come up with a different system post-2011 just because nobody seems happy with the end result of this one- the small market teams don’t like that it doesn’t really stop the big-market teams from spending money and the big-market teams don’t like that small-market teams just use it as a way to have other people pay their payroll rather than using it to really boost the team.
Kalish's $400,000 replacing Drew's $14 million in 2012
Is delicious.
Love Drew, but Kalish looks like a young Drew who can steal. Yeah.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 1:43 PM EDT up reply actions
can't wait for that.
If he can get that home run swing working at the higher levels, he’s gonna be a superstar. If not, still should be a great player. Do you think his arm is good enough to be a full-time right fielder? That’s the only thing I’ve really had any questions about.
It's not an ideal arm...
But in Fenway, his range would be absolutely wasted in left. I have no expectation he’ll be a defensive disappointment. The difference between the top and bottom arms is lower than the top and bottom ranges value wise.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 1:55 PM EDT up reply actions
This is true
I’ve been kind of hoping he’d be able to stick in center, personally (that’s mostly what he’s been playing in Pawtucket, right?), but if he can handle right well, that would be great.
If I were Beltre I think I would take the 4/60 more money less relocation, stress etc
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
The Sox are the ones offering 2/36
So the relocation and stress would presumably come with the 4/60
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
what I meant is not having to move again in 2 years and have to negotiate all over again that is stressful
But, I see your point he could always stay in Boston and work out another 2 years. I think the Sox get it done with 4 years or maybe a very lucrative 3 with a club option on the 4th?
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
Ummm.........
Why would Beltre take $24 mil. less in guaranteed money? If someone offers 4X15, he is gone.
If he keeps up the level of play,
The 2 year contract offers potential for more money. A kind of gamble. Plus if, as he hinted, he doesn’t intend to play way longer, and ended up retiring before a 4 year deal was up, he’d definitely stand to make more with the two-year deal.
Not really.
A player at 33 can still get a 3-year or 4-year deal. At 35, you get two at most. It’s a matter of 2 big per annum contracts, or 1 big per annum contract.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I just saw:
Randor Bierd has been rleased and Bubba Bell to the DL.
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by bestbostonsports on Jul 23, 2010 1:22 PM EDT reply actions
I will be disgusted if we let him walk.
He’s such a perfect fit. He’s also a player who has all the markings to age well.
I wouldn’t throw money at the guy… but man, how are we going to do better? Give this guy at least the deal we gave that bum Lowell.
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3B and Catcher
Catcher is tough to fill because, frankly there are hardly any decent hitting catchers, period.
3B is hard to fill because, while there are several good ones, they are all locked up by other teams.
We may indeed need to ‘just pay the man’.
So lets set the market for Beltre....at least on OTM - what's the high end of an acceptable contract for Beltre?
I’d like something like 3 yrs $35 -42M personally. If it goes 4, I’m much less interested but $50M over 4yrs being front loaded I might be okay with.
those don't seem unreasonable numbers
but its not my money …
4/48 would be fine with me. I wouldn't start the bidding there... but if it got there I would still do the deal.
Next year is his age 32 season. That’s 12 per (same deal we gave Lowell).
If we can get him at that price it would be a goddamn bargain. He’s already been worth $16.5mm this year – and that’s with a good but not great UZR (which is vulnerable to SSS) while DRS has him at +11 runs on defense already. Basically, he should reach the 5 win plateau in value for us sometime the next couple weeks. If we can get any part of that $ to be performance bonuse based or get the 4th year to be a vesting option (or the typical medical protections we’ve been doing) I’d do a dance. Even if his AVG falls to the .260-.270 range next year (unlikely, since it was always depressed by Dodger Stadium and SafeCo – he’s a near .300 true talent hitter and Fenway only helps him) he’s still going to provide some nice surplus value over what we pay him.
We need to forget what a phenomenal bargain he’s been and focus on the facts:
a) he’s a great fit in Fenway
b) he’s a great fit in the clubhouse (our kind of player)
c) he’s a phenomenal asset on the field defensively
d) he’s healthy again
e) he’s the best option available.
f) we will look a lot worse without him.
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twitter: @alskor
Okay, here's a plan.
Let Beltre walk.
Trade Ellsbury to Colorado for Ianetta.
Sign Crawford or Werth to play LF.
Sign Dan Wheeler. (All Rhode Island team!)
Sign VMart to a 4 year deal.
Sign Papi to 2yr contract/extension.
Sign Tek as Gary Tuck replacement.
Play VMart 60% of the time at C for 2 years (full time DH after that), the other 40% at 1B. Bring up Lars to play 1B the other 60% of the time, acknowledge the learning curve and deal with it. Move Youk to 3B and deal with his future defensive limitations. Bring Kalish up to platoon with Cameron in CF. It’s not a “bridge year” but it would be a commitment to making two guys (Lars and Kalish) into full time players under platoon conditions to start. Kalish would probably move to RF (or Werth) post-Drew, and a new CF would be needed for 2012. Or if Kalish is an adequate CF (or at least better than Crawford), then offer Drew a 1 or 2 year extension…he won’t want much in terms of years. If the future is Crawford and Kalish in the OF, then some power would be nice from the other position. But, 30HR CF’ers don’t come around everyday…and Matt Kemp doesn’t qualify…
You don't want to pay for Beltre
But you want to pay likely more for Crawford?
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 24, 2010 12:04 PM EDT up reply actions
that sounds like a seriously downgraded team to me.
First, why are we trading Ellsbury and signing Crawford? We want to pay more for the same skill set?
Second, Dan Wheeler has a club option for next year, he’ll probably be in Tampa.
If Tek isn’t playing next year, you can bet he’ll be taking a few years off before coaching, if he decides to go that way.
A VMart/Lars first base combo and Youk at third is going ot be a HUGE downgrade offensively and defensively.
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