Minor Lines 7/21/10: Happy Casey Kelly Days Are Here Again
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 21, 2010 11:12 PM EDT
in Minors
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PrintPawtucket L 2-11
Ryan Kalish: 1-4, HR, K
-That's a pretty good final AB slump busting HR I hope.
Aaron Bates: 1-4, K
Lars Anderson: 0-4, K
-Breaks up a nice long hitting streak for The Viking.
Josh Reddick: 0-4, 2 K
Rich Hill: 2 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
July continues for Rizzo post-jump.
Portland W 5-1
Che-Hsuan Lin: 1-4, 3B
Luis Exposito: 1-3, 2B, BB
Anthony Rizzo: 1-3, 2B, BB
Yamaico Navarro: 1-2, BB, SB, E
Ryan Lavarnway: 2-4
-OK, I'll be the first one to say that RBI is a dumb stat, but nine in five games and eighteen at bats? Geeze.
Casey Kelly: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 1 HR
-8:2 GO:AO, seems to be getting back on track even with the continued homer troubles--that's just a statistical blip when you consider his groundball numbers of late.
Jason Rice: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Salem Game 1 W 3-2 (In 8)
Pete Hissey: 1-3, 2B, K
Oscar Tejeda: 1-4, 2B
Will Middlebrooks: 1-4, K, CS
Tim Federowicz: 1-3, 2 K, PO
Jason Place: 0-3, 2 K
Ryan Dent: 0-1
Cesar Cabral: 2.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Salem Game 2 L 1-4 (In 7)
Pete Hissey: 1-3, K
Oscar Tejeda: 2-3
Will Middlebrooks: 0-3, K
Caleb Clay: 5 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K, 1 HR
Greenville W 4-1
Derrik Gibson: 1-4, 2B, K
Chris McGuiness: 1-3, BB, K
Shannon Wilkerson: 1-3, SB
Michael Almanzar: 1-4, 2B, K
Lowell L 4-5
Kolbrin Vitek: 0-4, 3 K
Bryce Brentz: 1-4, CS
Miles Head: 0-3
Brandon Jacobs: 0-3, K
David Renfroe: 0-3
Seth Schwindenhammer: 0-3, 2 K
Tyler Wilson: 4 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
GCL Red Sox L 5-9
Keury De La Cruz: 1-5, 2B, K
Oscar Perez: 2-4, 2B, K
-Some good SSS results from the catcher the Sox had so much faith in (at least if you believe the dollars they spent). Seven singles, a double, and one walk does raise some flags though.
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at the game again
Kelly is the so awesome. I’ll be writing about that tomorrow.
oh, and ♥ Rizzo
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Jul 22, 2010 12:04 AM EDT reply actions
dumb stat?
Why is an RBI a dumb stat? The name of the game is runs- either scoring them or driving them in. Hermida’s stats are horrid, yet he drives guys in. That is pretty valuable.
I’m in favor of including that dumb stat in the summaries.
"simul justus et peccator"
Because there is no real ability to drive in runs outside of the ability to hit.
It is almost entirely dependent on pure offensive ability, (better represented in simple outcomes like single, double, triple, home run, and ultimately OPS/wOBA) the chances someone gets (simply a matter of a player’s team), and the random chance of when you happen to get your hits. There’s at best a minimal real sustainable “clutch” effect, so that’s all but out the window too.
Simply put, RBIs are not any sort of indication of how good a player is outside of the idea that, generally, good players get a lot of RBIs and bad players don’t. Jeremy Hermida is one of the exceptions so far this season—he’s a crappy player who has picked up some RBIs based purely on the luck of getting situations and having his hits happen to come when there are runners on base. He will invariably regress to the mean, and when his one time on base per four plate appearances starts coming with nobody on and one out instead of with the bases loaded and two outs, everyone will start wondering why we were playing him in the first place.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 22, 2010 2:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I feel like RBIs are a quality stat…but batting average with RISP is basically the same, but much more relevant.
Batting average with RISP does not stay consistent from year to year
Even just relative to the player’s batting average on the season and thus is entirely irrelevant.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 22, 2010 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Irrelevant in determining the actual ability of the player, that is.
Entirely relevant in determining how much they have produced, I suppose, but who cares about that when actually making decisions regarding the future. Don’t pay for past “performance”
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 22, 2010 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Even though RBIs are not a good measure of skill in any way.
Hermida’s high number of RBIs mean that, as a what-happened stat, at least we have extracted as much value as possible from his limited skill.
yeah, they're interesting to see for judging what we've gotten out of a player
completely useless though, in looking at the potential of prospects like these posts do.
Yes, it's ok to look at them for a player within a certain team,
but they are useless when comparing players.
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
I hate Hermida
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 22, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
Situational Hitting
Many guys who drive in lots of runs don’t necessarily have a good BA. 1-3 won’t capture the sacrifice. Papi, for instance doesn’t always have a very good BA, but still produces runs. I think you can see that historically as well. Not every run producer is like Manny.
Pedroia is a better hitter than Papi, yet Papi typically drives in more.
I think it is a meaningful stat, even though it depends on those ahead of you. Situational hitting is an important part of the game.
"simul justus et peccator"
the reason you think that
is that your barometer of a “good hitter” is apparently batting average. Which is a terrible barometer of how good a hitter someone is.
Disagree
The difference between a good pitcher and a mediocre one is that, when they get in a tight spot, they can execute pitches to escape the jam. Same goes for some batters. They can hit in crucial situations. Stats are nice, but to leave out human psychology and variability leaves them barren. Statistically speaking, there is a pitcher for the Tigers who doesn`t have a perfect game on his resume, but…
Anyway, what is the ability to hit? All the major leaguers have ability. They can see. They can swing. But some are better at making contact with the ball than others. Can you provide statistics that tell us why?
and what about grittiness, why is there no grittiness stat?
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 22, 2010 2:48 AM EDT up reply actions
Statistics don't tell you why someone is better at hitting than another, they say if they are or are not.
What they can tell you is whether or not something is repeatable. If it is not repeatable, then it is not a skill. A person who records significantly better numbers in “clutch” situations or situations with runners on than otherwise is no more likely to do so in the next year than random player X.
The difference between a good pitcher and a mediocre one is that the good pitcher doesn’t get in as many situations because he allows fewer baserunners. In fact, the stat you’re describing is basically left on base percentage—how many runners a pitcher strands. That has been proven to be unsustainable as well.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 22, 2010 3:30 AM EDT up reply actions
The same goes for batters
The amount of clutch PAs or LIPS a batter faces in his career or year is so small compared to all the other PAs, so you can expect in the future for that player to perform at his normal level. Some players perform better in clutch situations than others because they are just better hitters.
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
I hate Hermida
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 22, 2010 11:19 AM EDT up reply actions
If you can find a player that can consistently maintain a high clutch stat.
Or even something like a high BA w/RISP over multiple years, then tell me. I’m sure there are examples, but it’s been fairly rigorously proven that it has a very low year-to-year correlation.
But look at A-Rod! He’s clutch!
My God sometimes you wouldn’t even think A-Rod had a career before 2009 the way MFY fans talk about him.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
haha
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
Join the Lacrosse community The Lacrosse Blog
by bestbostonsports on Jul 22, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions
As a big MFing MFY fan, I’m not a believer in “clutch” and did plenty of beating my head against the wall pre-2009 over A-Rod “not being clutch.”
“Clutch” is a way to show 2 or 3 plays on ESPN and then decide that that player swings a bolt of lightning every time it’s the 9th inning. If you’ll permit me to quote Derek Jeter, this is how I’ve always felt about clutch:
After losing the first two games of the ALDS a few years back, Jeter was asked if they had to try to win more in the coming games, to which he responded “there is no trying to win more. What do you think we were doing the first two games?”
Someone being clutch would imply that they had a reservoir of ability that they just weren’t bothering to use because it wasn’t the 8th or 9th inning, and I think that’s silly.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
Luckily there are those with sense in that group, like you and CW. Most of my friends that are Yankees fans can’t stop talking about how clutch he is and then use Joe Morgan or Buck as proof since one of them went on and on and on during the 2009 playoffs about how he is the next Reggie Jackson, that personally made me want to vomit. These were the same people that the year before that proclaimed that they wouldn’t ever accept Alex as a true Yankee. Though these are mostly Jersey kids, not sure how the different breeds of Yankees fans are.
Like Sox fans, I feel like each state brings something different. The Mainers (like myself) just feel happy to be part of a group for a change and are generally optimistic, most of the manic Sox fans are from Mass, the on the fence types from Conn etc.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Well, I’m from upstate New York, and I think we have a more objective look at everything. As opposed to the people who live in the city and have to constantly listen to morons like Mike Francesa screaming “JAWBA THROWS HAHDER IN DA BULLPEN” or people from Jersey who are just destined to be annoying (sorry, Jerseyers).
Or, of course, the bandwagon fans from across the globe (not to imply that to be a real fan you have to live close to the team). So, I think all fanbases have good fans and shitty fans, but it does definitely correlate that the better your team is, the more shitty wagon fans hop aboard. The Yankees and the Sox are good → wagon.
But, getting back to the original point. Was A-Rod’s 2009 playoffs great for us? Yeah. But I just saw it as regression to the mean. He was hot for 15 games, he didn’t all of a sudden “learn how to be clutch” in order to become a “True Yankee” © ® TM
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
The occasionally irrational Sox fans like myself thought it would be just as well if he continued his tremendous playoff choking, was that sort of suck sustainable for a better like him? Well 2009 gave us that answer for better or worse…
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Well, now that you mention it, I do believe in the phenomenon of choke.
I think you can be mentally taken out of a situation and grip the bat too hard or try to overthrow, but I don’t think you can just decide through force of willpower to all of a sudden get considerably better than normal.
Was A-Rod overanxious and swinging at slop because he wanted so hard to fit into Yankees lore? Who knows.
Questions or thoughts? Email me at duggan2423(at)gmail(dot)com
Someone being clutch would imply that they had a reservoir of ability that they just weren’t bothering to use because it wasn’t the 8th or 9th inning, and I think that’s silly.
This is basically how I like to put it. Helps knock off the psychological bias towards “clutch”, since it can just as easilly be interpreted as laziness when the player doesn’t think it counts.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 22, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Just to give folks an idea...
David Ortiz actually is worse close and late (by OPS) than otherwise with Boston. Better with RISP overall, but even then two of his eight years here he’s been worse then his full-season numbers. Four of his eight years he’s been worse with RISP, 2 outs than he is otherwise.
Tango’s “The Book” has probably the best study on “clutch” that we have. It’s got some issues too, but generally it shows that only about one in six players has even a semi-significant long-term increase in numbers when considering “clutch” situations. Does it exist? Yes, a very little, but it’s not even worth as much as the platoon split you’d get from pinch hitting an equally skilled player who has the left-right advantage on the pitcher and is actually what could be considered a choker.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 22, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
2004-2010
Drew: .283 BA, .902 OPS
Drew w/ RISP: .264 BA, .883 OPS
Ortiz: .285 BA, .961 OPS
Ortiz w/ RISP: .316 BA, 1.009 OPS
But Ortiz also had two years with worse numbers with RISP than otherwise, and one year basically neutral.
Add in the fact that league-wide numbers are better with RISP (likely due to pitcher quality in ABs with runners on vs. ABs without) and all you’re showing is statistical static. A player’s career OPS with RISP will always be higher or lower than their typical numbers based purely on the fact that it has to be one or the other. The point is that this is not something he does consistently. Every year, David Ortiz hits better against righties than lefties. He does not replicate his RISP numbers every year.
You’re not really refuting the argument. Also, way to purposefully dodge around 2003 where Ortiz hit poorly with RISP and Drew kicked ass. At least have some purpose to the sample.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 22, 2010 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions
He had a higher OPS w/ RISP in 6 out of the last 7 years.
Every year, David Ortiz hits better against righties than lefties.
Except in 2000.
6 out of the last 8 years, too. And one he doesn well within standard deviation.
The point is you have not proven any sort of predictability.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 22, 2010 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Pujols has been intentionally walked 12% of his PAs with RISP.
Artificially boosted by something you can not claim to be a matter of clutch.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 23, 2010 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions
What are you trying to prove?
Drew’s OBP with RISP during that time? A massive .405. Maybe people see that as apathetic, since the drop in slugging means that he’s just hitting less, but getting on base is the best outcome for a plate appearance in baseball and he knows that. Why risk a GIDP or a fly out if you know you can get on base?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Fun fact:
(Drew’s career RISP OPS – Drew’s career OPS) > (Ortiz’ career RISP OPS – Ortiz’ career OPS)
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Jul 22, 2010 3:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Or even something like a high BA w/RISP over multiple years, then tell me.
That’s what I was responding to.
getting on base is the best outcome for a plate appearance in baseball and he knows that.
Getting on base is obviously better than not getting on base. But, a walk is not as good as a hit. Especially when there are runners in scoring position.
Not always true
For example, bases loaded bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded, then yes, a walk is just as a hit, so never say never.
Not to mention, if the ump calls Ball 4, you’re going to 1st, but if you put the ball in play, you could get anything from a home run to a triple play.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Jul 22, 2010 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions
I think he was working the drive-thru window...
…when the team bus went through.
A couple or three weeks … if I’m recalling correctly, he’s been terrrrrible
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 22, 2010 3:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice Kelly!
I am going to an Asheville Tourist game tomorrow where Todd Helton is making a rehab start.
I LOVE PEDROIA!!! ITS MAN LOVE!
You gotta love Kalish
HR was off a LHP too
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Jul 22, 2010 8:56 AM EDT reply actions
Kalish is quickly becoming that minor league player that can replace the hope I held for Buch back when he was in Portland. Can’t wait to see this kid in the top club, in September I would guess at this rate.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I miss Nava already
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
Join the Lacrosse community The Lacrosse Blog
by bestbostonsports on Jul 22, 2010 8:09 PM EDT reply actions
he'll be back soon
in the meantime, Nava-Kalish-Reddick is a pretty sweet Pawtucket outfield to go watch.
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