Would a New Arm Bring Relief? History Suggests Otherwise
by 0157H7 on Jul 19, 2010 8:00 AM EDT
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Reading the Boston Globe today, I noticed some striking figures. Sean Smith compiled some basic stats on Theo Epstein's midseason relief acquisitions. Since the Theo Epstein era began in 2003, only one year - 2008 - has seen July 31st go by without a new reliever coming in. Even in years like 2007 and 2009, when the pen was a relative strength, Theo still moved to try to bolster it.
Unfortunately, the results of these acquisitions don't speak well for the strategy. True, they're small sample sizes, and we're just looking at ERA and WHIP. But you can't ignore that of the 8 relievers Theo brought in, every single one had a higher ERA with Boston than their previous team, and all but three pitched horribly (Chad Bradford and Bryan Corey were okay, and Billy Wagner was very good). [Click "Continue Reading" for the numbers and explanations.]
Scott Sauerbeck (2003)
Pirates 53 games / 4.05 ERA / 1.375 WHIP
Sox 26 g / 6.48 ERA / 2.100 WHIP
Scott Williamson (2003)
Reds 42 g / 3.19 ERA / 1.394 WHIP
Sox 24 g / 6.20 ERA / 1.426 WHIP [Note: Williamson did have a 1.13 ERA in his 8 games in the playoffs.]
Terry Adams (2004)
Jays 42 g / 3.98 / 1.651
Sox 19 g / 6.00 / 1.519
Chad Bradford (2005)
AAA (OAK) 9 g / 3.24 / 1.320
Sox 31 g / 3.86 / 1.414
Mike Remlinger (2005)
Cubs 35 g / 4.91 / 1.303
Sox 8 g / 14.85 / 3.000
Bryan Corey (2006)
Rangers 16 g / 2.60 / 1.327
Sox 16 g / 4.57 / 1.246
Eric Gagne (2007)
Rangers 34 g / 2.16 / 1.050
Sox 20 g / 6.75 / 1.875
Billy Wagner (2009)
Mets 2 g / 0.00 / 0.5
Sox 15 g / 1.98 / 1.098
There are a couple of ready explanations for the failure of these players. It can't be easy coming from a team that's out of the running, into the fishbowl, pressure-cooker environment of Boston, typically in the middle of a playoff race when these guys arrive. Some players might feed off the attention and adrenalin, but others might find it overwhelming. There's also the issue that many of these guys came from the NL or the AL West, neither of which present the level of offensive that the AL East offers. Finally, there's the fact that good relievers are rarely available - teams either hoard them (Rays) or want too much for them, so we're just seeing the results of Theo's slim pickings.
Nevertheless I think it's fair to say, given these results, that the organization has trouble evaluating relievers. In such circumstances, the Sox should probably give up on midseason relief acquisitions, unless a top-of-the-line reliever (a la Wagner) is available. Even then, Theo needs to scout them properly and ensure they're healthy, lest we repeat the Eric Gagne experience.
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Interesting to also look at who went the other way
Sauerback: 2003 – Traded with Mike Gonzalez for Brandon Lyon and Anastacio Martinez
Williamson 2003: Traded for Tyler Pelland and Phil Dumatrait
Adamas 2004: Traded for John Hattig
Remlinger 2005: Traded for Olivio Astacio (Sox also received cash)
Corey 2006: Traded for Luis Mendoza
Gagne 2007: Traded for Engle Beltre, Kason Gabbard and David Murphy (Sox also received cash)
Wagner 2008: Traded for Chris Carter and Eddie Lora
doesn't seem like there is much that they gave up
Maybe Carter, he seems to be a good power guy, an dMurphy a good 4th OF
by Rickfansince76 on Jul 19, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
Exactly
The Sox seem to be very adept at talent evaluation, trading all these guys that haven’t ammounted to anything to take a shot at improving the team. This is why I trust them to make good trades and I won’t flip if they choose to trade a prospect for a reliever, because it won’t hurt them and could help. Simple. What was the last killer bad trade this management team has made? Some could argue Hanley Ramierz for Beckett, especially since the Sox have had about 10 SS in the last 4 years, but that was value for value, and the Sox don’t win WS in 2007 without Beckett, so like most fans, I’m OK with that one. I just remembered Bronson Arroyo for Wily Mo Pena, and that was probobly the worst one I can think of for this team. Gagne? I guess, but everyone liked that one and it should have worked.
Michael Bowden looked terrific yesterday
That’s about the only positive to take from the entire game.
Pathetic baseball at its worst.
I think Richardson, Bowden, Manuel, Atchison, will all help solidify the pen.
And to be honest, the pen hasn’t been too atrocious as of late. The injuries are piling up, and we are starting to not score runs.
Also, Francona putting F. Cabrera in was…well…..uhh……….dumb.
Billy Wagners are hard to find
that was a great pick up last season, and not something you will find every year but I think picking up a RP always helps a team, something different to show th eteams during the second half. I think it is goo dto get someone from the NL instead of AL just because batters haven’t seen them as much.
one name I have heard is
Dotel from the Pirates- I can see this because of past trade history between the teams
Dotel has a decent track record,
but the problem with all the available guys is that they suck this year. I don’t know if I want to trade for a guy and have to hope he regains form.
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
"man, this team they just suck so bad"- gizmosandy
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 19, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
Would a new arm bring relief?
The Sox are 6.5 out and fading. If their only problem were relief then perhaps bringing in a new arm would make sense. The fact is, however, that their problems can also be traced to a rash of injuries. The Sox cannot make up the 6.5 games, or catch the Rays, or halt the slide, with all the personnel they currently have on the DL. It would be a mistake to deplete their minor league system in order to try to replace the stars they have on the DL—they are irreplaceable. This may sound like sacrilege, but if the Sox were sellers instead of buyers—and they were willing to sell their potential 2011 free agents, they could pick up some valuable prospects that could be used in an off-season trade for some other team’s potential free agent. That, along with the payroll cleared—and available to go after the likes as Werth or Crawford or Lee—would set the Sox up nicely for 2011. Unfortunately, the Sox are too close, and they won’t do what would be the smartest thing to do. Too many players and fans think they still have a chance this year, and would be furious if management “gave up.”
Senicus
Yes, I would be furious
First of all, when was the last time the Sox were mid-season sellers? I can’t recall, and I go back to the late 60’s. Are they stupid? No, they are almost always in contention and trying to win, which is the goal.
Second, who would they trade? V-Mart? He is coming off injury and won’t fetch much if anything. Besides, I would rather keep my starting catcher and #3 hitter and re-sign him after the season. Beltre? Who would play 3rd? Lowrie. Ortiz? Yes, the fans would rightly revolt. The Sox can’t play the “we’re gonna lose him anyway after the season” card since they can afford to pay.
They have to field a team; remember this is Boston, not Pittsburgh, the Sox have hoards of paying and fanatical customers they need to serve by fielding the best team possible every year.
Third, who would be the trading partners? Most teams want to keep prospects for cost-control, limiting the trading partners. I guess Beltre is the most logical, but what team is going to trade a blue-chip prospec for him?
Ain’t happening.
Exactly, not worth it
We aren’t struggling for resources, the luxury tax probably isn’t a big deal anyway and Ortiz, Lugo and Lowell are coming off the books after this year anyway, that’s what $30-$40 mil? Granted our young players aren’t going to be getting cheaper year to year it is the opposite but I don’t think we have to worry about it. And really, our farm system is pretty loaded right now and the low level talent is starting to move up into the higher leagues already, trading for prospects (always a crap shoot) with high expectations would only be blocking the path for ones who’s talent we are aware of.
On top of that, we don’t really need to trade for anyone major in the offseason. We would all love to have Gonzalez, we know that, but we don’t really need him by any stretch of the imagination. Our offense, loaded with scrubs this year has been one of the best in the league. The team really is pretty set the way it is now.
We may be fading right now but Epstein is a pretty smart guy, he knows how close we got to first place before the ASB and he knows that the last couple of injuries we had were the ones that put us over the edge and on a decline. But he also knows that these guys are close to coming back and the team will be better than the one we fielded that got us within .5 games of first from further back than 6.5, we weren’t even over .500 for a stretch there. We’re in fine shape with a little less than half the season to go.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Gonzalez
I believe the Sox are going to be in need of a big bat in the offseason and the A-Gon talks will become red hot after the season. Many, including me, believed the Sox would struggle to score runs this season. That has not been the case largely due to a big surprise (so far) from Beltre and a come back from Ortiz. Beltre is out of here most likely and they Sox will be looking for a long-term middle of the order bat.
if the Padres keep in contention the rest of the year
why would they possibly move Gonzalez in the offseason? They don’t have tons of turnover from what I see, there’s no reason they wouldn’t be able to compete next year as well and trade him at the deadline if they aren’t competing. The trade value between the offseason and midseason (when some teams that want to compete are getting desperate) isn’t as different as you might think.
Dunn is a FA
but I don’t know if I want him playing 1B. If he did, I would hope it would be only one year because I don’t want to sign Ortiz to a multi year deal. After that, Gonzalez becomes a FA and we can pursue him for 1B and move Dunn to DH. I feel this is unlikely, however.
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
"man, this team they just suck so bad"- gizmosandy
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 19, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Love Dunn as DH
I haven’t seen Dunn play enough to evaluate his defense, but I’ll take everyone’s word that he is a butcher in the field. He is having another very good year and coming off a bargain contract (2x$10 mil.), so he will be looking to get a better deal somewhere. I believe he is only arond 30, so I’m sure he wants to play in the field for the next contract and mayby go DH after that. I thought Dunn would be a good target this season if Ortiz went bust, but that didn’t happen, thankfully.
Agreed
They would have to be wowed the offer. I will respect them if they don’t trade him before the 2011 deadline, assuming they are out of contention then. Baseball does not need another Pirates or Marlins; you are supposed to try to win. Go Padres.
I just don’t see it happening with Gonz. Incredible contract for a great player on a team that’s doing pretty well. No reason for them to get rid of him right now or in the foreseeable future.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Beltre for a couple years, or Ortiz for that matter. I am of course worried about our contingency plans for if we lose Beltre. Youk can play third but how long is he going to be able to do that adequately? A lot of people don’t like him long term as a third baseman. The real problem is that who knows when we’ll have a prospect ready for 3B. Middlebrooks is the best 3B prospect we have at the moment but is still in Salem, who knows how that works out, could be a few more years until he is developed enough to play. I don’t think Youk is that solution but Beltre can be. This offseason will be interesting.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
and we have yet to talk about the catcher problem
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
"man, this team they just suck so bad"- gizmosandy
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 19, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, another player who may not be a long term solution at his position. I love VMart and I hope he stays, and he sounds like he wants to stay. But how many more years is he going to catch before becoming a first baseman?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I would want him for another year, 2 at the most.
The same thing with Beltre, but the problem is other teams might offer longer deals for more money. unsurprisingly we are interested in Iannetta. Although, it won’t possibly happen until the offseason unless the reports on Vic are wrong and he is out for the season or something. http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/aslex-rodriguez-becomes-an-afterthought-071910
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
"man, this team they just suck so bad"- gizmosandy
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 19, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
I've decided...
…to stick my head in the sand on the catcher issue…
Seriously, though, I figure that VMart gets a 4ish year contract, with the expectation that he catches in year one or two. After that, I think his bat plays as a DH. Of course, the contract figures would have to consider that DHing.
Wait 'til next/this year?
"Laser show. So relax."
by nuthinboutnuthin on Jul 19, 2010 6:53 PM EDT up reply actions
Ain't Happening
Yes, I know it ain’t happening. That is what I said in my post.
As for teams not being willing to give up blue-chip prospects in July? It happens every year. Several blue chip prospects were offered to Seattle for Lee.
As for the Sox being able to afford to keep their free agents? That is irrelevant if they have no intention of resigning them, as would be the case for Drew, Beltre (if they were planning on trading for a 1st baseman), or Ortiz (up until relatively recently). If you are out of it—and don’t plan on resigning them, then wouldn’t it make sense to get something for them that would help the team in the long run?
I’m just speculating because I have the freedom to do so (I don’t actually have to run a team) and so I am sure that your and Rogue Nine’s perspectives are far more realistic than mine.
Despite the fact I am speculating that they are out of it, I won’t really give up hope until they are mathematically eliminated.
Senicus
No Cliff Lee on Sox roster
Yes, blue chip prospects are traded for ace pitchers and star hitters. I just don’t see any of those type of players on the Sox roster they would be willing to trade.
Drew is signed through 2011 and I’m sure the Sox will talk to Ortiz about an extension or possibly just pick up the option.
It doesn’t matter.
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Jul 19, 2010 11:00 AM EDT reply actions
the season
is over. It was since April. Our team is mediocre, it’s a AAAA team. let’s just give up.
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Jul 19, 2010 11:01 AM EDT up reply actions
Disagree stongly
When healthy, this team is a contender for the wild card at least. I really don’t see the Rays as a superior team. Now you could say that the season has been over since June/July with all the injuries, but they have to try to improve the team.
I thought about replying to her, but I have a suspicion that sarcasm was at work here on BBS’s part. This isn’t her typical sort of post. Internet just sucks because inflection is impossible to pick up. However, if you weren’t kidding BBS, Scoop +1 and even then, our season is far from being over.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
I'm being sarcastic
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
Join the Lacrosse community The Lacrosse Blog
by bestbostonsports on Jul 19, 2010 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Called it!
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
They inquired about Nunez.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/07/red-sox-inquired-on-leo-nunez-cody-ross.html
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
"man, this team they just suck so bad"- gizmosandy
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
I don't see his name on the 2011 or 2012 FA lists,
so I would be willing to spend a little extra because he can help in the future. Although, he worries me coming from the NL and having been awful last year.
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
"man, this team they just suck so bad"- gizmosandy
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 19, 2010 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Nunez arbitration eligible through 2012
Ross arbitration eligible through 2011. Ross is paid $4.5 mil. this year and same or more next, big money by Marlins standards. Nunez is only paid $857K this year and that number will rise next year for sure. Wow, the Marlins are so cheap they won’t even pay good players arbitration rates. I’m all for it, let’s pick the Marlins/Pirates carcasses dry.
First of all, I don't want Ross.
If the Marlins want to throw him in the Nunez deal, then fine. Supposedly, the Marlins don’t want to pay the arbitration rates, so they don’t have much leverage because they don’t really want to keep him. He does have 2 years left on the contract, so I’d say maybe 2 mid level guys and a low level guy, or one high level guy and 2 low level guys.
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
"man, this team they just suck so bad"- gizmosandy
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Jul 19, 2010 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions
If there's a reliever that I would trade for because if his low trade value right now
It would be without a doubt: Brandon League!
He's pretty good
but is is trade value really low right now? It seems to me he’s putting together a pretty good year for himself in Seattle. In the long run, once Wake is back in, he’d proabbly end up replacing Atchison, and I’m not sure that’s an upgrade.
I still think Seattle got absolutely fleeced trading Morrow for him.
meh
no thanks
That place was for diehard sports fans. I only follow my team when they're in the playoffs" - Homer Simpson
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by bestbostonsports on Jul 19, 2010 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions
The Folks over at Lookout Landing have been very frustrated with him this year
I don’t read everything but he seems to be pulling a Papelbon t his year – going almost exclusively fastball, fastball, fastball.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Jul 19, 2010 1:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Indeed
Look at this:
K/9 in 2009: 9.16
K/9 in 2010: 6.89
So what happened? You look at the pitch selection and you can find the answer:
Splitter/Change up in 2009: 32.5% of the pitches thrown
In 2010: 16.8%
We’re speaking about the most effective pitch in baseball here!
And the winner of that award for 2009 goes to Brandon League. It’s a rather remarkable win, because the pitch in question, a changeup — or, possibly, a splitter — was a new one for League, who up until 2009 was a dominant fastball pitcher that tossed out a slider once in awhile. In 2009, League introduced the splitter pitch and relied on it, using it roughly 35% of the time. And boy did it work. 35% of the time that Brandon League threw that splitter, the hitter swung and missed. It was five percentage points better than the person-pitch in second place, an old friend, Ryan Madson‘s changeup, at just under 30%.
The #6org training staff is really awful since the situation here is a no-brainer! For your enjoyment, here’s a gif of that nasty splitter!
Oh yeah and a 61.9% GB% doesn’t hurt either!
I'm shocked. We're interested in Scott Downs.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/07/red-sox-yankees-interested-in-scott-downs.html
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
"man, this team they just suck so bad"- gizmosandy
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
Can somebody please tell me why the Rockies would want
to trade Iannetta and go with Miguel “career year” Olivo?
"If I was being paid $30,000 dollars a year, the very least I could do was hit .400."- Ted Williams
"man, this team they just suck so bad"- gizmosandy
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
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