FanPost

Bunting late in 1-run games

Just following up on a question I had during the last gamethread.  It's pretty common knowledge that bunting decreases the run expectancy of the inning, but in situations such as last night, the amount of runs you score is less important than the chance of scoring at least 1 run (to tie the game).  

Plugging various numbers into http://www.tangotiger.net/markov_wes.html gives the following run frequencies (chance of scoring):

2010 Redsox:  .465 for runner on first 0 out vs. .434 for runner on second 1 out.

2009 AL: 4.34 -> 4.18

And just for curiosity, the combined lines of Scutaro-Pedroia-Ortiz (the batters who were up): .456->.423.

So it seems that bunting is indeed almost always a bad decision, even in these situations.  Good call Ben.

 

EDIT: Typo, accidentally wrote 2009 Sox when I used 2010 stats.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Over the Monster

You must be a member of Over the Monster to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Over the Monster. You should read them.

Join Over the Monster

You must be a member of Over the Monster to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Over the Monster. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker