Breaking Down Martinez v. Varitek Behind The Plate: Is There A Big Difference?

by Randy Booth on May 25, 2010 8:00 AM EDT in News

A lot has been made about Victor Martinez's ability behind the plate versus what Jason Varitek can do. Martinez has always been regarded as so-so handling a pitcher, while Jason Varitek is considered one of the best in the game.

But when we look at the stats, what are we really going to find?

Varitek hasn't spent a lot of time behind the plate this season, but it's enough to take a look at how both Martinez and Varitek have faired with different pitchers. Let's look at it pitcher by pitcher. We'll start with the biggest problem so far: Josh Beckett.

Here's how Beckett has performed with Martinez and Varitek behind the plate:

Player	IP	ERA	SO/BB	BAA	OPS	BABIP
Martinez	9.1	7.71	1.17	.317	1.014	.323
Varitek	36.1	7.18	2.54	.301	.851	.369

So what does this tell us? First, it tells us that Beckett has been pretty bad -- but we've known that all along, huh? It's hard to really dissect how a catcher effects a pitcher when, no matter which way you slice it, the pitcher is bad.

We'll need to dig a little deeper for Beckett. If we look at his career splits, Beckett has played catch with Varitek more times (723 innings) than any other catcher in the bigs (Paul Lo Duca is No. 2 with 200.1 innings of work). In his career, Beckett and Varitek have combined for a 3.95 ERA and a 2.43 BAA. These are solid numbers, but these also factor in pre-2010 which was, uh, solid.

V-Mart has caught Beckett in 25.2 innings factoring into last year. Unlike Varitek, the streak of suck continues: 7.36 ERA with a .353 BAA.

Maybe Beckett really does need Varitek.

Let's move on to another pitcher that hasn't had a very good season, and that's John Lackey. Here's how his numbers fair with the two catchers:

Player	IP	ERA	SO/BB	BAA	OPS	BABIP
Martinez	41.0	5.05	1.35	.266	.791	.293
Varitek	14.0	5.14	1.16	.333	.853	.354

The big disparity between these numbers is the BABIP. Lackey has been very unlucky in his two starts with Varitek behind the dish. A .354 BABIP is just not sustainable. The .293 for Martinez, though, is right on average. All the numbers are pretty close other than the BABIP and that could make a huge factor if it were to even out.

Verdict: I think Varitek might be able to straighten Lackey out a bit. Maybe not a lot, because it seems like Lackey's problems are all on his shoulders, but having a good, confident catcher is important for a struggling pitcher. Confidence may or may not be in Martinez's game plan right now.

Now let's look at how "The Ace" Jon Lester works with both Martinez and Varitek:

Player	IP	ERA	SO/BB	BAA	OPS	BABIP
Martinez	46.2	3.09	2.61	.222	.631	.289
Varitek	13.0	4.85	3.20	.174	.624	.214

Here's an easy verdict: Jon Lester is just very good. His ERA with Varitek is ballooned a tad, which is surprising because of the low BABIP. But all the other numbers are very solid. With Martinez, the ERA is a nifty 3.09 and all the other stats follow suit.

This really is a push because Lester is just that good. I think Mike Lowell could get behind the plate and catch a complete game shutout with Lester on the mound.

The last pitcher to take a look at is Daisuke Matsuzaka -- the guy that almost threw a no-hitter last week with Varitek behind the plate:

Player	IP	ERA	SO/BB	BAA	OPS	BABIP
Martinez	14.2	11.05	1.11	.344	.980	.380
Varitek	15.0	0.60	3.50	.085	.285	.121

This is where you see a big difference. With V-Mart behind the plate, 18 earned runs in 14 innings. With Varitek, one earned run in 15 innings. There's some significance there.

Dice-K seems to have found a groove and we might be able to thank Varitek. Dice-K almost threw a no-hitter on Saturday and Varitek was the guy calling the signs. Although Varitek said after the game that he should only play when V-Mart needs a rest, we might have a true "personal catcher" situation here.

Here's how I see it: Lester has been good. Buchholz has been good. Lackey will get better. Beckett, once he gets off the disabled list, should get better. Dice-K is truly the wild card, so why not keep this combination flowing? It takes V-Mart's hot bat out of the lineup for most of these starts, but maybe this is what the Red Sox and Dice-K need; get him pitching well and see what happens down the road. A great Dice-K would make the Red Sox into a sure-fire playoff team.

We've looked at four pitchers and how they fare with both Martinez and Varitek behind the plate. But what do you think? Is there a big difference? Should Varitek start getting more starts to help pitchers out, or does Martinez's bat have to stay in the lineup?

What are your thoughts, Red Sox Nation?

NOTE: I did not include Buchholz or Wakefield in here because a) Wakefield only pitches to V-Mart and b) the same for Buchholz, except for Monday night. V-Mart left early due to injury, so Buchh pitched the final four innings to Varitek. He allowed one run over that span.

NOTE 2: Small, small, small sample size abound. Just keep that in mind.

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Comments

Matsuzaka versus Varitek

I must say that these ERA numbers are either extreme outliers because of small sample size (likely), or you have discovered a trend so extreme as to need NIH mental health study! Maybe send a copy of this to both Red Sox management and also to NIH along with Matsuzaka’s address and medical records.

Thanks

by NG on May 25, 2010 10:36 AM EDT reply actions

Can you preface this with huge SSS alerts and

a giant sign saying that catcher ERA is not even close to a reliable measure of a skill?

by ThePanda on May 25, 2010 10:41 AM EDT reply actions

I actually forgot to do that.

Thanks for the reminder.

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by Randy Booth on May 25, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Randy, you called a .061 difference in BABIP “big” in reference to Lackey, but neglected to mention the massive .259 difference in Dice-K’s split before suggesting the personal catcher solution. I don’t necessarily disagree but thought it strange.

by SendEmHomeKim on May 25, 2010 10:55 AM EDT reply actions

RE: Lackey

His BABIP with VMart is average, while his BABIP with ’Tek, although only a .061 difference, is quite high and really is very unlucky.

And I did neglect the Dice-K BABIP numbers, which obviously suggest he’s been unlucky with VMart behind the plate and very lucky with Varitek there.

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by Randy Booth on May 25, 2010 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

further caution on the Dice-K numbers

16 of Dice-K’s 19 earned runs came in 3 innings, all of which, yes, happened to be caught by V-Mart.

But V-Mart also caught 11.2 other innings with Dice-K, which were much better (1.61 ERA).

by mmmmm on May 25, 2010 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions

It's not like the potential for the "Big inning" is new.

Dice-K has been famous for getting himself into trouble, loading bases, putting guys on, ect. But in the end he works his magic and gets out of it.

It’s hard to say if it’s luck or Tek, but with V-mart this year that magic seems to be gone and Dice-K has been a victim if the big inning.

Does Tek have an ability to claim Dice-K down or calls the right pitches in those situations V-mart doesn’t?

In 2010 with the bases empty opponents are hitting: .169 and .417 with RISP .

In 2008 with the bases empty opponents hit .225 and .164 with RISP.

So the only logically conclusion is someone has replaced Dice-K with Bizzaro Dice-k!!! He pitches well with bases empty, but is horrible with RISP.

by ruktuim on May 25, 2010 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions

CERA is questionable to begin with

but CERA on 10-40 innings is pretty close to an exercise in futility. For years we have heard the mantra about what a “great game” Varitek calls, and I’ve always considered it to be smoke and mirrors.

The pitcher shakes off to the pitch they want to throw, and then executes the pitch. The catcher can frame pitches, block balls, work strategically with the pitcher before hand, etc. which are all tangible, helpful things, but the execution of pitches is at least 95% on the pitcher.

Giving credit or blame to the catcher for a pitcher’s success or failure is like attributing a business deal to the CEO’s secretary….

I'm Lord Duggan and I approve this message.

by Lord Duggan on May 25, 2010 1:03 PM EDT reply actions

Tend to agree.

by mmmmm on May 25, 2010 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I wonder if there is a

language barrier between Dice-K and Victor Martinez. Varitek is a veteran who has caught many (including Japan’s own Hideo Nomo). Since Varitek is a more native English speaker than Martinez and an expert in handling nervous pitchers, perhaps he can communicate better with Dice-K. Dice-K and Martinez may have been frustrated with their communication attempts.

What frustrates me about Dice-K in this (even though it is good that Varitek catching him has worked well) is that he has no right to complain about Martinez’s game plan. Not only is he the pitcher, not Martinez, but he is being paid very well for how he’s played. A man who negotiated weekly massage therapy into his contract and who was throwing a few too many stinkers in the last couple seasons should be kissing up to the Sox Brass rather than criticizing them.

"We're not going to give up," It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."-Manny Ramirez

by revigik on May 26, 2010 12:06 AM EDT reply actions

Negotiations were done by the Devil himself, not Daisuke.

Scott Boras was at the table getting the extras for his client. Don’t pin that on Matsuzaka. Boras had us by the short hairs and no one is better at getting the extras added on to the contract than he is. Wait until Ellsbury is a free agent in 2014. We all know who his agent is?

Link to Matsuzaka’s Contract on Cot’s:
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2004/12/boston-red-sox.html

by went9 on May 26, 2010 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions

CERA

There was a post and discussion here a few days ago that got me thinking about how I would go about trying to measure the influence of the catcher. It seems to me that the problem with CERA is that there are so many variables at play that you can never really be sure what’s causing a catcher’s ERA to be high or low at any given time.

So, if I was good with stats and wanted to do a lot of work to answer the question, here is what I would do:

Build a data set that I could use to compare pitch selection for same pitcher(s)/same season/different catchers. Then use it to look for differences that might be telling. Things like the same pitcher throwing a higher percentage of curveballs (or sliders, or whatever) with catcher A than he does with catcher B — and look especially for possible patterns that hold up across multiple games.

I would also look at things like % of first-pitch strikes and number of 3-ball counts. I would also compare what the same pitcher threw on 3-2 with each catcher calling the pitches.

All that would be very time-consuming, and that sort of analysis isn’t really my thing, but I think a study along these lines would make a fascinating read. I do think catchers’ game-calling has a real effect, I am just not sure how significant the effect is, and I suspect the significance varies greatly from pitcher to pitcher.

My preference is to keep Varitek where he is. Martinez’ bat does need to stay in the lineup, and I suspect that the rest between starts is doing Tek some good. The only reason I would change the original plan would be if the coaching staff sees a problem and they are pretty sure that starting Varitek over Martinez in specific situations will fix that problem.

Baseball is reassuring. It makes me feel as if the world is not going to blow up. ~Sharon Olds, This Sporting Life, 1987

by lazyblue on May 26, 2010 1:00 AM EDT reply actions

As much as I love the Captain and think he is a fantastic defensive catcher, Tek had it right that he should only play when Victor needs a break. This benefits the team in a few ways. First, it keeps a heating up Martinez bat in the lineup. Second, Varitek stays fresh and continues to hit over .300 as he’s shown he can do this year in spot duty. In the playoffs a good pinch hitter can help you win it all, just ask Matt Stairs and the Phillies of 2008! If we get to the playoffs the Sox need a fresh Tek who is hitting, not a burned out catcher tired from catching too many innings.

by Fenway302 on May 26, 2010 1:30 AM EDT via mobile reply actions