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David vs. Goliath Expectations

Even prior to the Red Sox’s nationally televised loss to rival New York Wednesday night, speculation surrounding slugger David Ortiz’s seemingly declining production had already begun surfacing in the media -- something that the struggling hitter didn’t take lightly while fielding questions from reporters following Tuesday night’s loss at Fenway Park.

After being reminded of last season’s well-documented slow, almost snail-paced start at the plate, Ortiz lashed out saying, "You guys wait 'til [expletive] happens, then you can talk [expletive]. Two [expletive] games, and already you [expletives] are going crazy. What's up with that, man? [Expletive]. [Expletive] 160 games left. That's a [expletive]. One of you [expletives] got to go ahead and hit for me."

Despite an ill-advised approach to such questioning -- as well as another less than stellar night at the plate on Wednesday -- Ortiz’s malcontent in regards to the media seems justifiable; right?

After all, it has been a mere three games, less than 2% of baseball’s regular season; shouldn’t the man affectionately known as "Big Papi" be given a pass until at least, say, mid-May?

And yet, it remains of near unanimous opinion that Ortiz is not the hitter he once was. It didn’t take a couple of 0-fers against the Yankees at the onset of 2010 for observers to become conscious of that -- it only exemplified it.

Star-divide

The question is not whether or not Ortiz’s skills have declined in recent years, it’s just how significant the impact of that decline will be to Boston in 2010 -- significant enough to warrant speculation this early in the season, after having played just three games? Not likely.

 

David Ortiz vs. Yankees (4/4-4/7): 1-11, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 3 SO

"[...] one goddamn hit?!?" - Bob Uecker as Harry Doyle in 'Major League'

 

While one look at Ortiz’s performance in 2010’s opening series against the Yankees offers little hope that he’s capable of again becoming the force in the middle of Boston’s lineup that he once was, there are a few things that are not being taken into account that warrant a certain level of consideration.

For one, New York did a tremendous job of countering Ortiz’s left-handed bat with unfavorable match ups. Good left-handed pitching has always been a troublesome area during David’s time with the Red Sox, and he received a large dose of it during the first three games of this season. Of his first twelve plate appearances, eight came against left-handed pitchers -- and good ones at that. Any left-handed hitter is going to struggle against the likes of C.C. Sabathia, Damaso Marte and Andy Pettitte; all of whom accounted for those eight of Ortiz’s twelve plate appearances.

In 2009, left-handed batters hit just .120 off of Marte, .198 against Sabathia and .282 off Pettitte.

Against that same trio this week, Ortiz went a combined 1-7 with a walk (0-1, BB vs. Marte; 0-3 vs. Sabathia; 1-3, RBI vs. Pettitte). To put that in perspective, 67% of Ortiz’s 2010 plate appearances have come against some of the better left-handed pitching in the American League -- needless to say, that’s a substantial difference from his career percentage of plate appearances versus lefties [29%]. While that doesn’t account for his four hitless at-bats against right-handers A.J. Burnett and Chan Ho Park, it does say a lot that the majority of his appearances came against traditionally tough left-handed pitching.

The Yankees’ pitchers weren’t the only ones putting Ortiz in position to disappoint, his own manager didn’t help the cause much either -- particularly in the late innings of Tuesday night’s loss.

With Boston trailing by a single run with nobody out in the bottom of the 8th inning in game two of this series -- and with Kevin Youkilis representing the tying run at second base -- the Yankees brought in left-handed relief specialist Damaso Marte to face David Ortiz. Marte has averaged over one strikeout per inning over the course of his career -- that number nearly doubling against left-handed hitters. The necessity to, at the very least, advance Youkilis to third with one out, combined with Ortiz’s tendency to strikeout when facing LHP, should have been enough for manager Terry Francona to consider pinch-hitting in this situation -- especially when Mike Lowell, who hit .301 against lefties in 2009, sits unutilized on the bench. Ortiz would end up flying out, completing an 0-4 night at the plate and leaving Youkilis stranded on second base -- the place where he would ultimately end the inning with Boston still trailing.

On the other hand, it’s hard to ignore the impact, or lack thereof, that Ortiz’s bat had in those first three games. As a designated hitter, it’s inexcusable to go 1-7 with runners in scoring position -- which is only amplified when the Yankees are in town. In other words, it’s easy to see how questions pertaining to last year’s sluggish start can be conjured up.

Facing both left and right-handed pitching, Ortiz appeared pull-happy and struggled with pitch recognition. His inability to lay off hard breaking pitches out of the strike zone and catch up to the fastballs that were in the zone became increasingly apparent by the end of game three. But again, we’re a mere three games in.

That being said, the recent expletive-laden interview that Ortiz has been denounced for in the media can be considered understandable to some degree given the circumstances. It’s toilsome enough task appeasing Red Sox Nation without constantly being reminded of last season’s similarly slow start.

Prior to the beginning of the regular season, manager Terry Francona went on record saying that Ortiz had to be "a force" as the Red Sox’s full-time DH in order for them to be successful offensively. That, however, is clearly becoming a concern amongst Red Sox faithful -- a fan base that has never been timid about voicing any displeasure to begin with.

While it can hardly be considered time to dust off the panic button after just three games, especially considering the aforementioned circumstances that played a part in Big Papi’s initial struggles, one has to recognize the increasingly indubitable hole in the lineup that currently occupies the DH spot if that lack of production remains, well, lacking.

If in the next month or so Ortiz continues to struggle in his attempt to get comfortable at the plate -- keep in mind that he had a less than stellar Spring Training campaign as well (.226, 14 SO, 5 BB in 62 AB) -- and the Yankees and Rays start to pull away early in the AL East race, then it may be time to start looking for a solution whether it be internally or outside of the organization.

However, until that time comes, it’s important for fans and the media alike to let Big Papi be. As Terry Francona said, "I don't want David looking over his shoulder a game and a half into the season."

After all, the original David didn’t have to deal with the heavy expectations of Red Sox Nation when slaying his Goliath -- so why should ours?

Poll
What is your immediate reaction following David Ortiz's first three games of 2010?
This problem isn't going away, we need to address it now.
105 votes
It's just three games, leave Big Papi alone.
137 votes
Let Ortiz continue as DH, but start utilizing Lowell more often.
153 votes

395 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 45 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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For the record:

I don’t buy what Francona said about disregarding the idea of pinch-hitting Lowell for Ortiz in game two because he thought that having a left-handed, traditionally pull-hitting, Ortiz at the plate would provide a better chance to put the ball on the ground towards the right side allowing Youkilis to move to third.

Ortiz rarely puts the ball on the ground as is, and his pull-happy tendencies at the plate are one of the biggest reasons for his struggles in the first place — especially against LHP.

I think Francona was simply trying to avoid hurting Ortiz’s confidence at that point, which I can understand to some degree, but I really think Lowell should have gotten the nod in that scenario.

"97 mph coming in and 197 mph goin' out." - Dustin Pedroia yelling at Mike Pelfrey mid-home run trot at ASU.

by Logan Lietz on Apr 8, 2010 9:11 AM EDT reply actions  

I think it's too early to pinch hit in that scenario

If they are looking to move Lowell, and Papi is your guy it makes even less sense.
What are you going to do when Lowell is gone? Pinch hit with Tek?

Also – the Shift the put on Papi was designed because he does hit a lot of ground balls to the right side wasn’t it? You don’t put your 2B in RF to handle pop ups.

by JonnyNYC on Apr 8, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

Well, I think the shift is simply because the majority of balls he puts into play are to the right side, so why not do a softball-type shift in the event that he does put one on the ground…not to mention I’ve seen a good amount of liners snagged by that roving second baseman…

As for Lowell pinch-hitting, the idea is still to win games at this point. Nothing like making Lowell feel alienated… what if they don’t end up moving him? If he’s on the roster now, why not utilize him…if not, then fill his spot with someone like Reddick who isn’t going to just take up a roster spot. And besides, it’s going to be difficult to move a guy later in the year if he hasn’t even seen the field at all. Not a lot of teams are going to gush over an aging vet who has sat on the pine all year.

"97 mph coming in and 197 mph goin' out." - Dustin Pedroia yelling at Mike Pelfrey mid-home run trot at ASU.

by Logan Lietz on Apr 8, 2010 9:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

whether its a GB or a liner, Tito's point is accurate - very strong chance the ball is going to the left side

Also the way they pitch Papi when the shift is on is different as well. So Tito’s reason is valid, though to me it doesn’t justify the decision. Ideally you want to be looking for a hit there, not simply moving the runner over.

With Lowell I know what your saying and I mostly agree. I guess I feel like at the end of hte day his value doesn’t increase much being a pinch hitter to any team either.

Tito needs to find a way to start him @ 3B or 1B early in the season.

by JonnyNYC on Apr 8, 2010 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

DH Platoon

I do not understand why they don’t go with this.

They basically make the same amount of money.

And if Lowell produces….he increases his value.

by wdogg72 on Apr 8, 2010 10:09 AM EDT reply actions  

exactly.

If we’re not planning on using him at all, then why even have him on the active roster?

Like you said, if he does well, his value increases exponentially moreso than if he’s idle on the bench.

And maybe a couple days off here and there will be good for an aging Papi…

"97 mph coming in and 197 mph goin' out." - Dustin Pedroia yelling at Mike Pelfrey mid-home run trot at ASU.

by Logan Lietz on Apr 8, 2010 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

because they want to move Lowell

plain and simple.

Spending THAT much money (their combined salaries) is way too much to be spending on the DH position. In addition to the money, wasting an extra roster spot on someone who has little defensive value is not good.

Plan A still is to move Lowell.

Having him around on the bench is already deep into Plan B. Actually using him is Plan C.

Finally – there are questions as to just whether you should really expect better performance from Lowell than what you’ll get from Papi. I’ll repost that separately.

by mmmmm on Apr 8, 2010 10:53 AM EDT up reply actions  

Actually I think I posted

something about the “Lowell/Ortiz” problem a few months ago. What is the problem with Lowell platooning with Ortiz at DH?

by Jason A on Apr 8, 2010 10:23 AM EDT reply actions  

the only problem i can see

is that francona loves papi and doesnt want to take at bats away from him. he sees papi as “the man”, you know, as much more of an offensive force than lowell, and he wants to get as much out of him as he can.

by revived0103 on Apr 8, 2010 10:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

at this point

I’d have to assume it’s simply Tito managing Ortiz’s confidence; trying to get him on track early in an attempt to avoid last year’s prolonged slump…I don’t think sitting him for Lowell would be a big confidence builder at this point. Which is probably the media’s fault to some extent, maybe Francona would have employed a dual DH system to start the year, but with the media questioning Ortiz already, to do it now would seem like he’s agreeing with the general conception that they can’t count on Papi anymore…

"97 mph coming in and 197 mph goin' out." - Dustin Pedroia yelling at Mike Pelfrey mid-home run trot at ASU.

by Logan Lietz on Apr 8, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

yeah, exactly

this is a tough situation for Francona, we’ll have to see how he handles it. He needs to have his players backs and support Ortiz and give him chances to help his confidence, but he can’t keep him in long enough that it hurts our chances for the season. It’ll be interesting to see.

by wolf9309 on Apr 8, 2010 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

right, but at the same time

He’s got to have Lowell’s back as well, especially given how tremendous he’s been regarding the whole trade situation. Lowell deserves at least that much.

And like it’s been said, how good does it look to teams that may potentially be interested in Lowell when his own manager doesn’t appear to have the confidence in him to even let him see some time.

Ortiz is a grown man, it shouldn’t be too difficult for Francona to sit him down and tell him, “Look we’re going with Lowell today, they have a lefty on the hill and we need to get him some at-bats. Please understand that this has NOTHING to do with us losing confidence in you, we just need to get Lowell in there every couple of days.”

"97 mph coming in and 197 mph goin' out." - Dustin Pedroia yelling at Mike Pelfrey mid-home run trot at ASU.

by Logan Lietz on Apr 8, 2010 10:51 AM EDT reply actions  

Given that the stated plan of management is to move Lowell

I don’t see why Tito should invest as much in having HIS back, relative to Ortiz – who they plan to play out the season with.

by mmmmm on Apr 8, 2010 10:56 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think if not for the class that Lowell has showed regarding the past few months with Boston and all that he’s done for us the past few years, we should at least be showcasing him if that plan of management is to move him.

Like I said, there’s ways of doing it without upsetting Ortiz or completely shutting him out of the lineup on a regular basis.

"97 mph coming in and 197 mph goin' out." - Dustin Pedroia yelling at Mike Pelfrey mid-home run trot at ASU.

by Logan Lietz on Apr 8, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Unfortunately going to have to repeat myself

I already posted on this here:

http://www.overthemonster.com/2010/4/7/1409454/what-have-you-done-for-me-lately

Folks like to cite two things as they chomp on the bit to see Lowell hitting lefties instead of Papi:

Career OPS v Lefties:
Lowell .850
Ortiz .817

2009 OPS v Lefties:
Lowell .867
Ortiz .716

However, those numbers don’t tell the whole story.

you should note a couple of things:

1) The .716 OPS number for Ortiz v LH is for the whole season, and arguably should be higher post-June 1st. I don’t have exact numbers, but I suspect, based on his first-half v second-half overall OPS ratios, that it is really around .850 or so.
2) In addition, that .716 OPS was accumulated while enduring a ridiculously low .248 BABIP (versus .305 for Lowell’s number). Again, with any luck whatsoever, that would have raised his OPS significantly. As Ben points out in my first posting of this, it is possible that Ortiz’ BABIP will continue to suffer if he can’t hit out of the shift. And that is true. But I don’t think that 2 games is sufficient to show that he can’t. His Career BABIP v LH is a more normal sub-avg .288, which probably is a more realistic reflection of the impact of the shift, since the shift has been in place on Papi for years. Even getting half of that ‘bad luck’ difference of .040 back would be a huge improvement.

Both those factors suggest that Papi was actually much stronger for the year against LH batters than the raw .716 number suggests, especially once past his bizarre slump at the start of the year. Probably much, much closer to that .860ish range.

Career wise – Papi’s OPS v LH is .817 (.889 vs LH Starters!) while Lowell’s OPS v LH is .850 (and only .799 v LH Starters).

Lowell himself is coming off FREAKING HAND SURGERY!!!!!!!!!!! There’s no guarantee that EITHER of these guys will hit all that well against L or R.

So I think folks should maybe give Tito a chance to get a real measurement of where Ortiz really is this year.

Folks also need to consider that the goal of Theo & Co. has been and should continue to be to move Lowell out of here. So if you have no faith in Papi as your full-time DH – who do you want to platoon with him if/once Lowell is gone?

by mmmmm on Apr 8, 2010 10:58 AM EDT reply actions  

who says we can't...

…use the platoon while Lowell is still with us, that way we’re not paying him for nothing and wasting a roster spot.

I’m not saying split the time 50/50, but if we give Lowell a game here and there, it’ll keep Papi fresh for the late part of the season while attracting potential suitors for Lowell, rather than have anyone interested become leary in investing in a guy that they haven’t seen play since 2009…

"97 mph coming in and 197 mph goin' out." - Dustin Pedroia yelling at Mike Pelfrey mid-home run trot at ASU.

by Logan Lietz on Apr 8, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

use the platoon while Lowell is still with us, then abandon it after we move him*

"97 mph coming in and 197 mph goin' out." - Dustin Pedroia yelling at Mike Pelfrey mid-home run trot at ASU.

by Logan Lietz on Apr 8, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

I think because the numbers above, when you look at them carefully

and taking into consideration that Lowell is hardly the picture of health, don’t necessarily support that Lowell is going to be much help.

When you suggest that he could be ‘worked in’ to the lineup in a way that won’t impact Ortiz, how? I think we might agree that you should probably wait at least a few games into the season. You may need to wait until Lowell is actually healthier.

Logically, it should be done on the road – where there won’t be an uncomfortable roar from the crowd adding an odd bent to it. BUT – keep in mind that Lowell’s road numbers are generally terrible compared to his Fenway numbers. So don’t expect too much.

And finally, for all that we should acknowledge that Lowell has done for this organization, Papi has done a ton more. I can totally grok Tito having his loyalties behind the big man first.

by mmmmm on Apr 8, 2010 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions  

I'm in no way implying that Tito should "turn his back on Ortiz"

I’m just saying, there are ways to go about getting both individuals playing time. If Lowell’s a little banged up yet, then playing every now and then would be ideal to at least keep him in tune; and Papi can use a breather every now and then.

I am in total agreement that Lowell will, and should be moved eventually, and that Ortiz should still be our #1 option going forward…but like I said, to get the most out of any deal for Lowell down the line, we need to show that he’s a dependable player for any interested teams.

Why does everyone assume that using a platoon system, with Ortiz still getting the majority of the AB’s would be a “slap in the face” of Papi? There’s mature ways of going about this as to not upset the two involved…

"97 mph coming in and 197 mph goin' out." - Dustin Pedroia yelling at Mike Pelfrey mid-home run trot at ASU.

by Logan Lietz on Apr 8, 2010 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions  

I agree, but I think that so many are calling for it to happen 'now'

and it is THAT that is ridiculous.

Absent last year’s start-of-the-season slump, there would not be this absurd pressure to do it now.

And beyond that, as I indicate, I personally have some serious doubts that Lowell is ready yet to provide much value in this regard. If they do want to showcase him, they are going to want him to look decent. And he’ll have far more value if he can show he can play 1B and actually run the bases.

All those factors argue for patience, not just for Ortiz, but also for Lowell.

by mmmmm on Apr 8, 2010 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions  

right

And Lowell’s health could very well be a factor in his lack of playing time to this point, but if it isn’t we’re certainly implying so by not showing him the field…

But you’re right, it’s all speculation at this point. It’ll be interesting to see how this all plays out away from Fenway if Papi continues to struggle…

"97 mph coming in and 197 mph goin' out." - Dustin Pedroia yelling at Mike Pelfrey mid-home run trot at ASU.

by Logan Lietz on Apr 8, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

my impression from the comments Tito made during spring training

is that he does not think Lowell has been swinging the bat well, so while he may do this, I think it’ll be a bit

by wolf9309 on Apr 8, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

anecdotal reports from folks who watched ST games

indicate that Lowell can’t really run at all right now. That he looks stiff and awkward.

I expect his first appearances will be as a pinch hitter in the late innings. If he gets on base he will be immediately replaced by a runner.

by mmmmm on Apr 8, 2010 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions  

Exactly

As I posted elsewhere, Drew suffered something like a 3 for 40ish stretch last year. But it happened in the middle of the season so no one noticed. And was totally buried by his typical .900ish OPS year as a whole.

Almost every batter in our lineup suffered a bad slump at one point or another last year – several of them at the same time when we had the Rays-Yankees back-to-back mid season.

Yet we were still 3rd in scoring by the end of the season.

by mmmmm on Apr 8, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

give him time

tito gave pedroia a couple of months his rookie season. most clubs would have sent him down.

patience is tito’s strength because it appears to work well in mlb

by Mick Lowe on Apr 8, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

He also hit .258 during that span.

Hardly lighting the world on fire, but at least he walked a bunch putting his OBP at .350.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Apr 9, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

ranked in order of importance

1. OBP
2. SLG
..
3. BA

A .350 OBP is very nice. Especially combined with a .516 SLG.

by mmmmm on Apr 9, 2010 6:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

Bat Ortiz 7th, Drew 5th.

Then leave Papi alone and let him figure it out.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Apr 8, 2010 1:32 PM EDT reply actions  

...because Drew has started off so scorching hot?

Ortiz has had three hard hit balls go straight at a shifted Cano, too. Regular defense those are liners into the OF.

by alskor on Apr 8, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

yeah but

the thing is Ortiz nevers sees a regular defense, so that hypothetical is kind of a moot point.

by Jason A on Apr 9, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions  

but they do indicate

good pitch selection
hard swings

And Ortiz HAS been working the counts to see a lot of pitches.

In other words, he’s actually had several quality at bats within those 12 PAs.

by mmmmm on Apr 9, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions  

He just looks so damn bad on the breaking balls.

"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.

by SoxDevil on Apr 9, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions  

well i everyone is putting the shift on him

he needs to learn to occasionally hit the other way around the shift, or else he’s going to be hitting nothing but home runs.

by wolf9309 on Apr 12, 2010 9:30 AM EDT up reply actions  

some numbers from David's past

in 2007, after the first three games
(against the ROYALS, not the Yankees, the Royals)
2 for 11 with 2 walks and 6 strikeouts

It’s not time to give up yet.

by wolf9309 on Apr 8, 2010 1:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Platoon - a great movie

You guys can dig deep and make some serious points and pull out every stat right up to whether they sh?t before the game. I like it.

However…..my case is simple. Why not get a little something for your money. Let Lowell get his stroke back before he actually takes the field. Not sure why Plan B is collect splinters and Plan C is actually take a couple meaningful cuts.

As far as loyalty goes….jog my memory……WS MVP….doesnt one of these guys have one?

They can’t trade Papi if they could he would be on the block too. Which should tell us something because he isnt making much more than Lowell and at least Mike has a chance to play the field.

They both put up decent over all “numbers” HR RBI AVG last season…..Papi lacking in the AVG department.

Just do it…..Papi will come around and then they trade Lowell.

by wdogg72 on Apr 8, 2010 2:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Platoon - a great movie

(agreed)

"97 mph coming in and 197 mph goin' out." - Dustin Pedroia yelling at Mike Pelfrey mid-home run trot at ASU.

by Logan Lietz on Apr 8, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions  

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