What Have You Done For Me Lately?
by JonnyNYC on Apr 7, 2010 11:57 AM EDT
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Ahh Big Papi. One of the brightest spots of the '03-'07 run....how age (hopefully that's all) has caught up with you. Down in '08, down further in '09 and O for '10. How are we supposed to feel about you? Couldn't you make this easier and at least get on base in some fashion? With Mike Lowell on the bench and waiting...how long should we do the same? Stick with you for another slow start and see if you can bring your #'s up in the 2nd half? What are we to expect in the clutch now? Most importantly what are we to expect of the 5 spot in the order?
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Some numbers to hopefully muddy things
I posted these elsewhere but then saw JonnyNYC started this thread so they belong here.
Folks like to cite two things as they chomp on the bit to see Lowell hitting lefties instead of Papi:
Career OPS v Lefties:
Lowell .850
Ortiz .817
2009 OPS v Lefties:
Lowell .867
Ortiz .716
However, those numbers don’t tell the whole story.
you should note a couple of things:
1) The .716 OPS number for Ortiz v LH is for the whole season, and arguably should be higher post-June 1st. I don’t have exact numbers, but I suspect, based on his first-half v second-half overall OPS ratios, that it is really around .850 or so.
2) In addition, that .716 OPS was accumulated while enduring a ridiculously low .248 BABIP (versus .305 for Lowell’s number). Again, with any luck whatsoever, that would have raised his OPS significantly. As Ben points out in my first posting of this, it is possible that Ortiz’ BABIP will continue to suffer if he can’t hit out of the shift. And that is true. But I don’t think that 2 games is sufficient to show that he can’t. His Career BABIP v LH is a more normal sub-avg .288, which probably is a more realistic reflection of the impact of the shift, since the shift has been in place on Papi for years. Even getting half of that ‘bad luck’ difference of .040 back would be a huge improvement.
Both those factors suggest that Papi was actually much stronger for the year against LH batters than the raw .716 number suggests, especially once past his bizarre slump at the start of the year. Probably much, much closer to that .860ish range.
Career wise – Papi’s OPS v LH is .817 (.889 vs LH Starters!) while Lowell’s OPS v LH is .850 (and only .799 v LH Starters).
Lowell himself is coming off FREAKING HAND SURGERY!!!!!!!!!!! There’s no guarantee that EITHER of these guys will hit all that well against L or R.
So I think folks should maybe give Tito a chance to get a real measurement of where Ortiz really is this year.
Folks also need to consider that the goal of Theo & Co. has been and should continue to be to move Lowell out of here. So if you have no faith in Papi as your full-time DH – who do you want to platoon with him if/once Lowell is gone?
The question is which Ortiz will show up this year isnt it?.
I dont think career numbers are all that meaningfull cause Ortiz got significant worse while Lowell posted above career numbers against lefties last year. So for all we know Lowell might still hit lefties around a career clip while Ortiz quite clearly isnt.
I dont wanna bench this guy yet, but i think its fair to expect Lowell will do better against lefties, games in april matter!
by German Red Sox Fan on Apr 7, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
It is also a question of which Mike Lowell shows up.
As I pointed out, Lowell is himself coming off hand surgery and a variety of health issues. Why folks think that HE will hit closer to his career numbers is any more likely than that Ortiz will escapes me.
When you say: “So for all we know Lowell might still hit lefties around a career clip while Ortiz quite clearly isnt.” – on what do you base that?
You do realize that even including last year’s horrid slump to start the season, Ortiz hit lefty starters at a decent .819 clip, only slightly below Lowell’s .829? That implies that, after the slump Ortiz was probably hitting lefties better than Lowell against lefty starters.
Thus our most recent extended sample (last year, post-June 1) doesn’t really support you.
I’m not here to say that Ortiz is definitely going to hit lefties better than Lowell this year. But I think folks need to step back from thinking its obvious that he won’t.
Tito & Co. almost certainly have access to all these numbers and know that they need more numbers for this year before they can draw conclusions.
Last year, JD Drew went on a stretch that was something like 3 for 44. Yet finished the year with an above-career-average .914 OPS.
Patience.
Good stuff
I’m not sure if the banter is in favor of Lowell or in rejection of Papi…or somewhere in between.
Right now I’ve got concern for the 5 spot in the line up, I don’t see a viable candidate right now on the team for the spot.
I didn't see the obligatory trade for Adam Dunn option
so i’ll go with the wait and see approach
Homer: Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.
well i think it's about what to do now
I’m sure the nationals won’t trade Dunn until they’re safely out of contention… I give them maybe a week?
Yeah this was more directed at the time in advance of the trade deadline
I think Dunn is plan B after the Gonzo deals perhaps. Could be a better deal for the Sox though, pending Beltre/Lowell/Youk seasons
Dunn
is the definition of “old player skills” in the body of a not young player. Sure, he is better than Ortiz right now, but he is a bad idea at his age/cost and lack of ability to do anything other than DH. I am for paying a DH 10+ million (Dunn makes 12 this year) if he hits like Papi of 03-07, not a 30+ year old Adam Dunn who will fall of the face of the earth very very soon. There must be better options.
Dunn is only a half-year commitment.
Get him, then drop him. He doesn’t want to be a DH, anyways, so he’d want to leave.
USG
I would hope our first option is more long term then this
In a perfect world the Sox are able to acquire a power bat with long term benefits, right now Gonzalez seems to be the best option there – but who knows how the season is going to play out.
I vote...
…we make Papi inject PEDs until his lips turn A-Rod magenta and he gets papery Hulk Hogan skin. Then we turn him loose, let him go at the end of the year, and feign shock when he tests positive again. Seriously, that’s where I’m at with him.
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Apr 8, 2010 1:07 AM EDT reply actions
do yourself a favor
breathe deeply before watching game 4. You might not survive to the all star break if you aren’t careful.
I'm grateful for '04 and '07
and he seems to be a fine human being and all. I just liked it better when I couldn’t reliably count on him ending an inning with runners on base/in scoring position by doing something which seems more appropriate to an Alex Gonzalez at-bat. As a hitter: Probably-Juiced-Papi > Probably-Clean-Papi. As a consumer of his product (i.e. RBI), I expect more of an effort to accompany this level of performance. If that requires him to enhance his performance through the use of illegal and/or banned pharmaceuticals, so be it.
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Apr 8, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
What's 'reliable' about 12 PAs?
of which 8 were against some of the toughest left-hander’s in baseball?
Are you seriously consider that a ‘reliable’ measure of how he’ll perform with RISP and with 2 out? Lets look at last year – including his start of the season slump so the numbers are as bad as they could be when you look at last year:
RISP: .339 OBP, .463 SLG, .801 OPS
Not awesome, but well above average and considering that includes that slump in it, those are really good numbers.
Two outs: .328 OBP, .465 SLG, .793 OPS
Okay, not as good. Not bad at all though. Just ‘pretty good’.
Finally, lets look at men on with 2 outs – this is, of course, your exact scenario:
2 outs, RISP: .371 OBP, .600 SLG, .971 OPS
HOLY SMOKES – looks like PAPI could still bring it when it counted – even last year, including that horrid slump to start the season.
Testing was instituted in 2002. Strong testing in 2005. Yet you like him for both 04 and 07. Those were not ‘Probably-Juiced—Papi’.
My subjective analysis trumps your objective analysis
for my purposes.
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Apr 8, 2010 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
That was too dismissive
I appreciate your objective analysis. I will, however, indulge my subjective Monster-Papi fantasies until such time as he doesn’t make me curse with every other at-bat…
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Apr 8, 2010 12:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Totally. Rationally speaking, of course you’re right. I mean, three games… Three…
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Apr 8, 2010 2:23 PM EDT up reply actions
For the time being
Keep Ortiz in the lineup DHing, platoon Lowell in there against lefties. This at least gets Lowell some AB’s which is a must. You have to do this to A. keep him ready and B. to showcase him a little in hopes for a trade.
Now I understand why they didnt do that in Games 1 and 3 since its early in the season and because all of the speculation surrounding Ortiz during the offseason.
I say keep Ortiz batting 5th for another 10 games, if he doesnt improve I think Drew should go there. I think Beltre is going to hit really good this year and having VMart Youk and Drew all getting on base in front of him would be insane!!!! Imagine a #6 hitter getting around 100 RBI’s :) Then have Ortiz/Lowell batting 7th.
I honestly don't think Lowell is truely healthy enough to start yet.
Unless he can run, you don’t really want to start him and have him plodding on the bases.
I expect his first appearances won’t occur for a few games and will first be as a pinch hitter late, on the road. If he gets on, he will be replaced by a pinch runner.
I would personally prefer to consider sliding Ortiz down in the lineup long before I go to a platoon with Lowell. Simply flipping Ortiz and Drew. But I also think we need to just be patient. So far 2/3 of his ABs have been against tough, tough left handers. Drew had a tough start as well. Lets give Papi a few against mundane pitchers to get his MLB timing going.
I wouldnt bench Ortiz completley. I would bat Lowell vs all lefties, period.
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by bestbostonsports on Apr 8, 2010 11:31 AM EDT reply actions
Since I wanted this at the start of the year...
Move Drewski up to the 3 hole, put Value-Mart at #5 and slot Papi in at #7. I know we can’t expect Drew’s numbers from that remarkable June throughout a full season, but I think he’s definitely earned that spot in the lineup by now. Value-Mart would be awesome behind Youk, and having someone like David Ortiz at #7 is ridiculous if he starts hitting like he did at the end of last year. Sort of like when the Dodgers had Andre Eithier batting eighth, the lineup is just that good.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
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