AYW Special: Our Pitching E.R.A with Varitek Behind the Plate Vs VMart`s

by BerkshireFan on Apr 29, 2010 10:15 PM EDT

There is a trend I have been noticing recently watching our starting pitching. It would appear that they pitch better (with a few exceptions... I`m looking at you JB) when Jason Varitek is behind the place versus when Victor Matinez is calling the pitches.

I hope you will follow below the fold and take a look at the results when we run the numbers, understand why we should not resign Martinez if we want to catch back up to the Devil Rays (man I just can`t stop calling em that, old habits and wishful thinking I guess) and why Jason Varitek is now and will always be the Captain of the Red Sox.

Oh Captain, My Captain

Just how good is Jason Varitek at calling a baseball game? While his offensive numbers were absolutely unbearable last year (and a good part of the year before) which seemed to point that the direction best moving forward for the Sox would be to find a younger, more offensively productive catcher. Sure sounds good on paper. But a catcher (much like a pitcher) is very special in the game of baseball, and I think that is overlooked more than it probably should be.

But first understand that Varitek has always had a methodical way of dismantling a batting order, studying each hitters individual weakness` and guiding our strong arms through it. How many no-hitters has the Captain of the Boston Red Sox called? 4 of them, more than anyone in the history of baseball. And with the bit of rest that having a Vmart on the roster allows, his offensive numbers are bearable..and exciting again.

So back to the premise of my diary, just how good is our staff when El Capitan is behind the mound?

First lets take a look Jon Lester`s starts with Vmart behind the plate:

APR 06	NYY	0	7.20	1	1	5.0	5	4	4	0	3	4	94-53	8-3
APR 12	@MIN	1	7.20	1	1	5.0	9	4	4	0	3	5	107-59	7-2
APR 18	TB	1	8.44	1	1	6.0	7	7	7	2	3	5	104-63	9-4
APR 23	BAL	0	6.23	1	1	5.2	4	0	0	0	4	7	113-69	7-2

That is an average ERA of 7.26, so how did Lester pitch with the Captain behind the plate?

APR 28

@TOR

4.71

7.0

119-75

6-2

That is a verifiable difference, and with Vmart not compensating with the bat (and hell even if he was hitting like Nomar back in `99 I would still put him at DH and start Varitek behind the plate) he has become damn near worthless and a liability. I mean at this point Ricky Henderson could steal a base on him (and I dont mean young Ricky, I mean like right now we could pinch hit Ricky Henderson and I think he would have a damn good shot at stealing a base on Vmart).

So where do the Red Sox go from here?　How long are they going to have that embarrassment behind the plate calling the games, allowing base runners-gone-wild and going 0-fer at the plate more often than not?

Well they can start by not even considering resigning VMart and maybe have a contract similar to Wakefield`s (if Tek would agree) for Jason while he continues calling games behind the plate and mentoring a real replacement.

And as a little side note here are a couple facts from www.jason-varitek.com

--- In 2009, Jason led ALL A.L. catchers in Catcher ERA with a 3.87 mark.

--- Although Victor Martinez assumed the role of the starting catcher during the late 2009 season, the pitching staff ERA of 3.87 when Jason was behind the plate was much better than that of his successor (5.22 with Martinez).

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By the way

Sorry I havent been around to post up the daily dump recently, my personal life has been a bit too hectic to get it together on a regular basis. Now that things have calmed down a bit on my end you will be seeing more links dumps in the near future.

"I think about baseball when I wake up in the morning. I think about it all day. And I dream about it at night. The only time I don't think about it is when I'm playing it."

Carl "Yaz" Yastrzemski

by BerkshireFan on Apr 29, 2010 10:17 PM EDT reply actions

looking forward

by upCHUCK on Apr 29, 2010 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Jason........ is that you???

by ganset on Apr 29, 2010 10:42 PM EDT reply actions

Catcher ERA is a pretty useless stat

isn’t it? Not to mention the intense small sample size problems and the fact that Varitek and V-Mart tended to catch different pitchers.

by ThePanda on Apr 29, 2010 10:52 PM EDT reply actions

CERA isn't useful

Here’s a pretty good Baseball Prospectus article on CERA.

Panda is right about sample size. One start is not a “verifiable difference.” Here’s a sample from last year, while slightly larger it’s also very small: VMart was acquired at the Deadline. Jon Lester made 11 post-Deadline starts: 6 with VMart, 5 with Tek. Here’s how he did with each catcher behind the plate:

VMart - 6 GS (39.1 IP) 29 H 7 ER 9 BB 43 K 1.60 ERA
Tek - 5 GS (30 IP) 25 H 12 ER 11 BB 32 K 3.60 ERA

Does that mean that VMart called better games last year? No. First off, teams game plan for their opponents. Tito, Farrell, the pitchers and catchers all review the scouting reports. With the exception of Clay Buchholz (who prefers to throw to VMart), the Sox’ starters are veterans. That means they have a good idea of how to approach their craft. Beckett, Lackey, Lester, and Dice-K are just as likely to shake off either catcher if they want to throw a different pitch than the one the catcher called.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Apr 29, 2010 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions

When has Clay Buchholz stated..

On (or off) the record publicly that he prefers to catch Vmart over Varitek? You got a link to back up that statement, because I can`t imagine a up and coming pitcher making such a statement publicly.

He would be a huge break from normal decorum would it not?

"I think about baseball when I wake up in the morning. I think about it all day. And I dream about it at night. The only time I don't think about it is when I'm playing it."

Carl "Yaz" Yastrzemski

by BerkshireFan on Apr 30, 2010 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Obviously Clay has never stated it openly, because as you said, it would be a huge break in decorum.

Which is why the lack of such a statement cannot be used to reject the idea that he does prefer to pitch to Martinez when confronted with the fact that Martinez has caught nearly 90% of Buck’s innings since his acquisition. Especially when you see stuff like this. Sure, he goes out of his way to play nice with the veteran, but it’s pretty clear if you read between the lines…Or even on the lines, really.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 30, 2010 1:28 AM EDT up reply actions

See, I've always assumed it was the opposite.

I think Beckett really likes throwing to Tek, and he gets first choice since he’s the vet. I think Buch doesn’t get a choice – and since he got good results with VMart right off the bat they’ve stuck with that. I think its Buch always gets VMart because hey, someone has to get VMart – and the veterans all prefer Tek (but they can’t all have him, either). I think that’s what happened last year.

Pitchers always say good things about their catchers… its probably a bad idea for any of us to read too much into those statements.

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Apr 30, 2010 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I guess that's not really the "opposite," but you get my meaning...

I think Beckett is the only one who really can’t stand throwing to VMart… but I think all our pitchers blame themselves more than the catcher. If they get hit its because they didn’t execute. None of them are Pedro level divas.

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Apr 30, 2010 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions

I suppose that's possible.

But it seems to me like between non-Beckett, Wakefield, and Buchholz starts, Martinez was distributed entirely randomly. He got some Lester starts, Tek got some. He got some Byrd starts, Tek got some. Etc.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 30, 2010 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions

That would still fit my theory of “Lester prefers Tek, but Beckett demands him – and Buchholz is the only one who always gets stuck with VMart.”

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Apr 30, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't think Buchholz is "stuck" with VMart

Buchhoiz appears far more comfortable throwing to VMart rather than Tek. But, aside from Beckett (and even that is far from certain), we don’t really know what each pitcher’s preference is. The fact is, VMart is the starting catcher. Tek is the back up. So more often than not, four of the five starters will be “stuck” with VMart.

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Apr 30, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

But it would better fit

“Beckett prefers Tek, Buchholz prefers Martinez”, especially since “comfort” is perceived to be such a big deal when it comes to Buck’s success.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 30, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions

As I said in my post

I believe it is more important than people give it credit for (as your comment clearly demonstrated). Catchers are part of the equation.

Their instincts can sometimes make or break an at-bat, and to discount its impact on a pitcher and his performance as a “useless stat” is a great disservice to the guys sitting behind the plate.

"I think about baseball when I wake up in the morning. I think about it all day. And I dream about it at night. The only time I don't think about it is when I'm playing it."

Carl "Yaz" Yastrzemski

by BerkshireFan on Apr 30, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Its not.

Check it from year to year. It has very little correlation. Its not a repeatable skill – so its not worth worrying about.

I don’t think anyone disagrees with your conclusion. VMart IS a terrible defensive catcher (and his arm is just the beginning of the story). Varitek is a pretty good one (other than the arm).

As Ben said, if you play tek too much he wears down and won’t hit. He’s too old to catch every day. Too many miles. We need another catcher to split with Tek, at the least. I would all but guarantee this happens – and I doubt they wait all that long. The current situation is 100% unacceptable. We WILL get a catcher. VMart might catch some still after that, but there’s no way we’re a playoff team with this catching situation.

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Apr 30, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions

And didn't Tek catch Lester last April too?

I seem to recall Lester being consistently awful with occasional good starts until June last year, all usually with Tek behind the plate.

If anything, I suspect Lester is just one of those pitchers who starts the year a little slow. Even in 2008, before he started becoming a near-ace, April was his second worst month of the season.

by RSNexile on Apr 30, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Again... this isn't an effective way to evaluate catcher performance.

Lots of things go into those results. Too many variables.

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Apr 30, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

I think that was the point, sort of.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 30, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Which is why I'm saying you can't put this on the catcher

Tek caught Lester is his last start and he was great, but he also caught Lester last April when he stunk. That’s not Tek, it’s Lester. Throughout his career, he has pitched worse in April than he has in the rest of the year.

by RSNexile on Apr 30, 2010 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions

To be fair

His “stinking” was a large part of it bad luck. He certainly wasn’t as good as he was later on, but he wasn’t as bad as his ERA would have suggested.

Interestingly, I just noticed Lester is awful so far this year against lefties. His splits aren’t massive there, generally, but he’s definitely been better against lefties since he came back from cancer (I bring this up because his 2006 numbers throw things off by a lot…)

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 30, 2010 12:54 PM EDT up reply actions

I was concurring with your point...

not refuting it. Talking hypothetically to the same imaginary audience you were…

Bullpen Banter
www.bullpenbanter.com
twitter: @alskor

by alskor on Apr 30, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Catchers do have an impact on pitchers

It’s just not well measured by CERA. Too many variables lead to it being completely unreliable.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 30, 2010 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions

+1

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Apr 30, 2010 7:19 AM EDT up reply actions

I agree with you, catcher ERA matters

you know it was similar with Piazza as a Met. We all know Mike could not throw out runners, but he called a goo dgame. The team ERA went up as soon as he left. I think Catcher ERA is more useful a stat then some of these advance stats

by Rickfansince76 on Apr 30, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Doesn't it seem more likely that it was because

The majority of the Mets’ best innings came from a 34-year-old Pedro and a 39-year-old Glavine in 2005—neither of whom could be expected to repeat their performances as they got older? Pedro only started 23 games in ‘06, and wasn’t nearly as effective due to injury, while a majority of the slack was “picked up” by a 35-year-old Steve Trachsel?

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 30, 2010 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions

Well we certainly can't take Varitek out while he's still hitting

and if he keeps hitting, well then V-mart will just have to ride the bench.

by beantownboy171 on Apr 29, 2010 10:58 PM EDT reply actions

If we keep playing Varitek with regularity, he'll probably stop hitting.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 29, 2010 11:05 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.

by Drugs Delaney on Apr 29, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions

yep

Smarter than all.

by gizmosandy on Apr 30, 2010 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Replace "probably" with "definitely"

and “hitting” with “breathing” and you’ve got the Corpse.

We have lingered in the chambers of the sea /
By sea-girls wreathed with seaweed red and brown /
Till human voices wake us, and we drown.

by 0157H7 on Apr 29, 2010 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions

He's really at his best when he only plays a couple times a week

I’d bet if he catches no more than 50-60 games this year, he’ll have decent offensive numbers.

by RSNexile on Apr 30, 2010 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions

This is worthless analysis

Statistically speaking, this is NOT a verifiable difference. Error is inherently large for a small sample size, like say, ONE F***ING GAME. You can’t seriously be drawing conclusions from 1 start. That’s like saying Jon Lester is much better at pitching ERA when he is in canada vs the US

by DrJgopatsgators on Apr 30, 2010 2:16 PM EDT reply actions

but...

isn’t that true?

jokes

There are no stupid questions, but there are a LOT of inquisitive idiots.

by return2greatness on Apr 30, 2010 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions

Chris Ianetta anyone?

Link

There are no stupid questions, but there are a LOT of inquisitive idiots.

by return2greatness on Apr 30, 2010 3:13 PM EDT reply actions

No.

Can we please stop being linked to OK offensive players who still can’t really throw runners out with any regularity?

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 30, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

If I were to target a player, it would be Ryan Hanigan

Backup 29 year old catcher for the Reds. Good plate discipline, if little power. Throws out a ton of runners, fared well in the framing metric that was recently thrown out there (only really useful for a directional idea, but still), and was only a little below average at blocking balls in the dirt. He’ll probably be dirt cheap if the Reds don’t suddenly realize what they could have, and will only have to serve as a bridge until one of our 5 young guys is ready, hopefully next year in the case of Ibarra.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 30, 2010 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions