Community Projections 2010: Josh Beckett

by Randy Booth on Apr 1, 2010 6:00 AM EDT in Community Projections

Now we turn our attention to the pitchers.

First on the docket is Mr. Opening Night, Josh Beckett. Beckett has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last three years and has a big year in front of him: a contract year. How will Beckett perform in his contract year? Will Beckett prove that he is the ace of this team, or will someone like Jon Lester or John Lackey step up and overshine Beckett?

Copy the form, paste it into the comments and let's hear your predictions. (And yes, I'm using W-L because it's just an easy thing to predict for...):

GS:
WINS:
LOSSES:
ERA:
WHIP:
K/9

Tweet Comment 29 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

GS: 33
WINS: 16
LOSSES: 6
ERA: 3.72
WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 8.11

by Justin_Bobo on Apr 1, 2010 6:34 AM EDT reply actions

GS:31
WINS:14
LOSSES: 7
ERA:3.57
WHIP:1.25
K/9:7.4

by Jaypizzy03 on Apr 1, 2010 8:47 AM EDT reply actions

GS: 32
WINS: 16
LOSSES: 8
ERA: 3.63
WHIP: 1.17
K/9: 8.64

by wolf9309 on Apr 1, 2010 9:22 AM EDT reply actions

GS: 33
W: 17
L: 6
ERA: 3.53
WHIP: 1.21
K/9: 7.8

by BobZupcic on Apr 1, 2010 9:41 AM EDT reply actions

GS: 26
W: 16
L: 7
ERA: 3.40
WHIP: 1.23
K/9: 6.7

No more Cowbells!

by bestbostonsports on Apr 1, 2010 9:48 AM EDT reply actions

GS: 24
WINS: 15
LOSSES: 6
ERA: 3.67
WHIP: 1.29
K/9: 7.1

Surgeon General's Warning: K-State-Mizzou basketball may increase the risk of high blood pressure. Please consult your doctor prior to watching any of these games.

by mystman995 on Apr 1, 2010 10:05 AM EDT reply actions

GS: 33
WINS: 17
LOSSES:9
ERA:3.40
WHIP:1.20
K/9 7

by Bullwinkle the moose on Apr 1, 2010 10:22 AM EDT reply actions

GS: 31
WINS: 17
LOSSES: 8
ERA: 3.36
WHIP: 1.15
K/9 8.67

Does anyone know how Fangraphs calculates FIP? I’m using the Harball Times formula of:

(13*HR+3(BB+HBP-IBB)-2K)/IP + 3.20

But I seem to be off by ~7%

I couldn’t find it on the Fangraphs site, but the glossary looked pretty bare. Perhaps I was looking in the wrong spot?

by brogshan on Apr 1, 2010 11:28 AM EDT reply actions

it's the right formula except the 3.2

that’s a season and league-specific number which hardball just says is usually around 3.2. Clearly this year in the AL, it wasn’t- can’t find the number, but working the formula backwards for Beckett, I get (rounded to) 3.11.

So I tried plugging that in with Lester and it’s about right- came out slightly higher, but that’s to be expected as I rounded all the numbers.

by wolf9309 on Apr 1, 2010 11:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Thanks, I didn't know that was variable

Do you know how they determine what the number should be?

by brogshan on Apr 1, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions

yeah it's just a scaler

to make it so the average FIP for the season and league is equal to the average ERA for the season and league.

by wolf9309 on Apr 1, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions

I say Josh gets a new deal and delivers

GS: 30
WINS: 18
LOSSES: 7
ERA: 3.39
WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 8.63

by dsharp on Apr 1, 2010 11:28 AM EDT reply actions

GS: 31
WINS: 18
LOSSES: 6
ERA: 3.65
WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 8.70

by drabidea on Apr 1, 2010 11:32 AM EDT reply actions

GS: 30
Wins: 18
Losses: 7
ERA: 3.59
WHIP: 1.12
K/9: 8.54

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Apr 1, 2010 1:06 PM EDT reply actions

defense helps the whole staff :)

GS: 32
WINS: 20
LOSSES: 9
ERA: 3.48
WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 6.2

"Hello. My name is Inigo Montoya. You killed my father. Prepare to die."

im gonna be all up on you like a spider monkey!

"…traded as many times this summer as a bad hooker’s phone number at a Vegas convention of Proctologists ."

by remembering9ergods on Apr 1, 2010 1:12 PM EDT reply actions

GS: 32
WINS: 18
LOSSES: 7
ERA: 3.50
WHIP: 1.15
K/9: 8.50

by RSNexile on Apr 1, 2010 2:07 PM EDT reply actions

The reason why not 33 starts:

Joba Chamberlain will bean three Sox in one inning. Later in the same series, Beckett will throw a curveball that catches the inside corner. Bob Watson will conclude he was headhunting with intent to injure and suspend him for six games. On appeal, the suspension will be reduced to five games. Curt Schilling will write on his blog about how if it was he who was suspended for something so weak, he’d hit every player in the MFY lineup his next time up so that he’d at least be guilty of the offense for which he was suspended.

by RSNexile on Apr 1, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs