REMINDER: OTM Fantasy League drafts tomorrow (WEDNESDAY) @ 9 PM EST
by Ben Buchanan on Mar 8, 2010 3:38 PM EST
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PrintJust throwing this up so nobody forgets to show up and we don't have to deal with an annoying autodraft. Or at least as few as possible.
This is in reference to this post, just for the record.
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You punks are dust.
I’m going to destroy you.
(I have no idea how to do a fantasy draft)
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
Pretty easy
You just pick the best players…you know like Julio Lugo, Yuniesky Betancourt, Russ Ortiz and the like ;)
Can't do any worse than me
I’m a sucker for youth and upside, which is why I draft rookies higher than most fantasy players would. And occasionally freak out and overdraft a “safe” choice to have him, which is how you end up with Dan Uggla in the 6th Round.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Mar 8, 2010 11:10 PM EST up reply actions
Too late to get in on this?
If so, I’ll wait till next year.
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
Ahhh Crap. That's an old email address of mine.
Try one of these:
ksox92@gmail.com
kevinv104@yahoo.com
Who are we doing this league with, ESPN, Yahoo?
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Mar 10, 2010 2:21 PM EST up reply actions
Sending you an invite
Who knew this would end up so stressful???
Whoever said it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, probably lost.
by David Harnden on Mar 10, 2010 2:27 PM EST up reply actions
I'm in. Alright!
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Mar 10, 2010 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
I may have to draft from courtside of my intramural basketball game
This is really putting two of my loves into conflict.
Everyone
I had to move it to Wednesday, due to a couple requests, and a personal conflict for me. If this is gonna cramp anyone’s style, let me know and we can hopefully agree on something else sooner than later.
I wasn’t going to change it on my behalf alone, but after the requests I got I took the easy way out. Hope nobody’s mad.
Let me know.
Whoever said it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, probably lost.
Cool by me.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
Good, more time to (not) do homework
Remember- always dispose of mice responsibly.
Chowdah Chatter - an outlet for my random thoughts and such.
Just saw the change.
I won’t be able to be there. I’ll try to get someone to fill in for me, but if not I might be out. One day notice on the change is a little short.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
yeah its kinda short
missing the draft sucks but its not the end of it. I hope with out of it you dont mean you will let your team rot if you miss the draft. That would be sad.
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 10, 2010 8:52 AM EST up reply actions
I hate autodraft teams.
Especially when I adjusted my schedule to be at the draft and it was changed at the last minute (and I really haven’t had time to put my own rankings in there). I’m annoyed enough that I’m just dropping out of the league.
But David, if you decide to give a reasonable amount of notice for the draft time, I’d love to be back in. Send me an email.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
I can still move it back further
Everyone, let me know if theres a time we can all agree on. I was trying not to screw anyone, but it seems I can’t please everybody. Any ideas? You know your schedules better than I…
Whoever said it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, probably lost.
by David Harnden on Mar 10, 2010 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
Sad that you dropped BTLove
But i can understand your anger. Its really tough to get 12 ppl together the same time though. I admit that the short change sucked and wasnt optimal. Only because i work from home i can make both dates. I hope you get atleast a place in the copycat league. ;)
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 10, 2010 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
I was bummed too
He pulled himself out, but I’m sure he’ll find a spot on the Official OTM league hopefully.
Glad to have you though, sox-inda-south. Welcome.
Draft tonight at 9PM (EST) 6PM (PST)
Good luck everyone, hope we have a great year!
Go Sox!
Whoever said it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, probably lost.
by David Harnden on Mar 10, 2010 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah I dropped myself.
I could have been at a draft at just about anytime with a little notice. But whatever. Have fun everyone.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
Should someone do another FanPost just so the people skimming aren't confused?
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
No need. Edited the fanpost title.
Wednesday is an odd word.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Mar 9, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
Ha
See Booth trying to outdo our league? We’ll show him. Everyone gets a Joe Mauer in our league…..
Whoever said it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, probably lost.
by David Harnden on Mar 9, 2010 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
I think I have a no compete clause somewhere in my non-existant contract.
Which isn’t to say that I can’t play here, just that I’m required to inform you that we are somehow inferior.
USG
One question...
Are we set on daily updates? I forget if this was discussed or not. I know my current employer would prefer weekly updates…but daily updates is fine.
Weekly is tough
for head to head as it removes the ability to rotate pitchers…..and remove injured players, etc..
This is true.
However I’m not sure I would call it “tough”, just changes the overall strategy a bit with setting your lineup.
daily is standard ihmo
but if you dont have the time to update your roster daily you can manage the roster once a week, offdays and pitcherstarts are normally set for the whole week. So you can just edit your roster on monday an pencil every starter in the day he starts.
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 10, 2010 3:57 PM EST up reply actions
That's true
You can actually set your roster per day for the whole week on most systems (I believe Yahoo is the same). The only problems you’d run into would be injuries.
Yeah,
you can set up your roster for 2 weeks in advance on Yahoo usually, and its usually pretty accurate.
Whoever said it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, probably lost.
by David Harnden on Mar 10, 2010 5:42 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, jeez. I'm strartin' to get stressed.
I’ve never done one of these and I’m up against a dozen stat-geeks.
Thank God I stopped off at the LC on the way home.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
I thought you were
gonna destroy us, Bloggy?!?!?!?!
Whoever said it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, probably lost.
by David Harnden on Mar 10, 2010 6:33 PM EST up reply actions
As commish
I feel like I have something to prove. At least you threw it out there that you’ve never played before and your’e gonna be bad, so if you do good, you’re a hero.
I threw it out there how I do all these leagues all the time, so if I get spanked, which could very well happen, I look like a douche…
Hehe food for thought.
Whoever said it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, probably lost.
by David Harnden on Mar 10, 2010 6:35 PM EST up reply actions
I AM GOING TO DESTROY YOU!
(if I can figure out how to get to the league draft page…thingy….)
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
Nevermind...I'm in.
OK.
Where’s Lugo………
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
You're lucky, Bloggy.
Fantasy baseball actually works against our stat-geek minds for the most part. We are interested in real talent more than contextual production, which is a big part of fantasy.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Mar 10, 2010 7:04 PM EST up reply actions
Fun times, man.
Thanks!
Hope the other lads have a good time in their draft, too.
Monster draft next year!
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
*(and lasses)
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
I'm willing to listen to enticing offers for Wakefield
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
"Our waiver wire
is gonna be Kate Moss"
Whoever said it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, probably lost.
by David Harnden on Mar 11, 2010 1:36 PM EST up reply actions
Sigh
Still, if he only misses a month and then produces like he can, he’s a bargain in the 4th round.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Mar 11, 2010 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Definitely
Apparently Webb will be starting on the DL as well, so that should make things interesting.
Whoever said it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, probably lost.
by David Harnden on Mar 11, 2010 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
Any way us non-players...
…could see the teams?
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Mar 14, 2010 4:53 AM EST reply actions
Does this link work?
OTM Rogue Fantasy Baseball League
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
ACTUALLY, advanced metrics show that that wasn't "premature".
Here is mine
C – Suzuki (OAK)
1B – Pujols (STL)
2B – Uggla (FL)
3B – Zimmerman (WAS)
SS – Ramirez (CHW)
IF – Gonzalez (SD)
LF – Kubel (MIN)
CF – Victorino (PHI)
RF – Ethier (LAD)
OF – Ludwick (STL)
OF – Ross (FL)
UT – Jones (PIT)
UT – Kouzmanoff (OAK)
SP – Hernandez (SEA)
SP – Wainwright (STL)
RP – Bailey (OAK)
RP – Capps (WAS)
P – Weaver (LAA)
P – Jackson (ARZ)
P – Matsuzaka (BOS)
P – Thornton (CHW)
BN – Wood (LAA)
BN – Snider (TOR)
BN – Bailey (CIN)
BN – Guerrier (MIN)
BN – Barmes (COL)
I went heavy on power. I think I need some depth on starting pitching and could use some relief help.
Here's my team
C
Russell Martin
(LAD – C)
1B
Kendry Morales
(LAA – 1B)
2B
Ian Kinsler
(Tex – 2B)
3B
Michael Young
(Tex – 3B)
SS
Ben Zobrist
(TB – 2B,SS,CF,RF)
IF
Chipper Jones
(Atl – 3B)
LF
Ryan Braun
(Mil – LF)
CF
Jayson Werth
(Phi – CF,RF)
RF
Adam Dunn
(Was – 1B,LF,RF)
OF
Nolan Reimold
(Bal – LF)
OF
Chris Young
(Ari – CF)
Util
Jay Bruce
(Cin – RF)
Util
Russell Branyan
(Cle – 1B)
BN
Chris Davis
(Tex – 1B,3B)
BN
Alcides Escobar
(Mil – SS)
BN
Jim Thome
(Min – Util)
Tommy Hanson
(Atl – SP)
SP
James Shields
(TB – SP)
RP
Brian Fuentes
(LAA – RP)
RP
Phil Hughes
(NYY – SP,RP)
P
Rick Porcello
(Det – SP)
P
Aaron Harang
(Cin – SP)
P
Ervin Santana
(LAA – SP)
P
Johnny Cueto
(Cin – SP)
BN
Chris Tillman
(Bal – SP)
Brandon Morrow
(Tor – SP,RP)
DL
Edinson Vólquez
(Cin – SP)DL
As always, my desire to not overpay for saves leaves me with anemic RP
My team
German Red Sox
C – Ryan Doumit (Pit – C)
1B – Adam LaRoche (Ari – 1B)
2B – Kelly Johnson (Ari – 2B)
3B – Gordon Beckham (CWS – 3B)
SS – Stephen Drew (Ari – SS)
IF – Paul Konerko (CWS – 1B)
LF – Johnny Damon (Det – LF)
CF – Grady Sizemore (Cle – CF)
RF – Hunter Pence (Hou – RF)
OF - Nate McLouth (Atl – CF)
OF – Álex Ríos (CWS – CF,RF)
Util – David DeJesús (KC – LF)
Util – Ryan Theriot (ChC – SS)
SP – Tim Lincecum (SF – SP)
SP – Zack Greinke (KC – SP)
RP – Jon Rauch (Min – RP)
RP – Justin Masterson (Cle – SP,RP)
P – Johan Santana (NYM – SP)
P – Josh Johnson (Fla – SP)
P – Javier Vázquez (NYY – SP)
P – Cole Hamels (Phi – SP)
BN – Chad Billingsley (LAD – SP)
BN – Scott Baker (Min – SP)
BN – Matt Garza (TB – SP)
BN – A.J. Burnett (NYY – SP)
BN – Andy Pettitte (NYY – SP)
I drafted 9 SP in the first 11 rounds against the common approach to take hitters first to try something new. Without a restriction on innings i feel its a mistake to have more than 1-2 hitters on the bench. I actually have 0, cause you only get 2/7 of a bench players at bats while you get 90%+ ip of a bench pitcher (unless you have to many starting the same day which is rare). The downside of the strategy is huge. Injury risk and pitchers are not so consistent as hitters. I still think i ended up with some ok hitters, especially in the outfield.
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 14, 2010 6:13 PM EDT reply actions
The drawbacks
come when/if starts gain you negative points which can totally negate a good start. Hitters rarely go negative for an entire week. As long as you match up well you should be o.k. Those weeks where you get double starts for Timmy and Zack will be tough to beat
I agree with you on the advantage of having more bench pitchers in our league.
However, especially with daily moves, it is nice to have some depth of position players because it lets you play match-ups. As well sit slumping players/ start hot players.
I went the high risk method.
C: Geovany Soto
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Robinson Cano
3B: Kevin Youkilis
SS: J.J. Hardy
IF: Derek Lee
LF: Jason Bay
CF: Matt Kemp
RF: Bobby Abreu
OF: Denard Span
OF: Michael Cuddyer
Util: Brad Hawpe
Util: Hideki Matsui
Bn: Jose Reyes
SP: Roy Oswalt
SP: Carlos Zambrano
SP: Kevin Correia
SP: Hiroki Kuroda
RP: Mariano Rivera
RP: Fransisco Cordero
RP: Trevor Hoffman
Bn: Brad Lidge
Bn: Bobby Jenks
Bn: Madison Bumgarner
Give me your old, your alcoholic, your thyroid deficient.
Yeah, GRSF here noticed we didn’t have any max starts set, and is looking to exploit it. He is wise.
USG
afaik
you cant limit the starts on yahoo, i might be wrong though.
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 14, 2010 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Hm...I don't know if this applies, but...
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Mar 14, 2010 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm sure we can do it.
Though I don’t know about changing the rules after the draft.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Unfortunately
that would be unsporting.
by BigRedDog42 on Mar 14, 2010 11:08 PM EDT up reply actions
No doubt.
I’m just wondering if it’s an unmentioned default.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Mar 15, 2010 12:46 AM EDT up reply actions
you can only edit a minimum
Head-to-Head Leagues
In all Public Leagues, the active members of a pitching staff must throw at least seven (7) total innings each week. Should a staff fail to meet this requirement, that team will automatically lose all five of the pitching matchups.
Custom Leagues default to the Public League settings, but the limits are configurable.
The maximum and actual games played information for your team is available by clicking on the Minimum Innings Pitched link in the table at the bottom of your team page.
I have created a league just to check the commish options you cant set a maximum, you can only set a minimum, which is designed for Head -to-Head where you compare 10 categories and the winner of more gets the win. So you cant have monster hitting and let a elite RP pitch an inning so you win in WHIP and ERA.
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 15, 2010 8:14 AM EDT up reply actions
interesting
I played a H-to-H in ESPN and there was a 7 start limit…..but as we can see each league is different…..
Me
C – Posada
1B – Howard
2B – J. Lopez
3B – I. Stewart (with Palanco taking over as soon as he’s eligible)
SS – Bartlett
IF – Papi
LF – C. Lee
CF – Granderson
RF – Justin Upton
OF – Bradley
OF – Willingham
UT – Palanco
UT – Helton
BN – F. Martinez
BN – D. Jennings
BN – M. LaPorta
SP – Lester
SP – C. Lee
RP – R. Franklin
RP – F. Francisco
P – Beckett
P – Scherzer
P – J. Chamberlain
BN – F. Liriano
BN – Wakefield
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Team Bloggy
World Conquering Team of Badasses
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
ACTUALLY, advanced metrics show that that wasn't "premature".
what about neftali feliz
Did anyone draft him? What is everyones expectations for Feliz this year? If he makes it into the rotation at some point, I think he could have a season similiar to Santana’s season when he went reliever to starter.
I'd say that's getting way ahead of ourselves.
He was definitely drafted, as he will be in pretty much every league, but I wouldn’t be depending on him for much, which is why he goes fairly late in every draft. We’ve seen tons of guys come up and dominate in their first season as a reliever and then get pounded next year as a starter now that they’re not the new, fresh face who’s going all-out on every pitch.
Could he be good? Yeah, definitely. Could he be Santana good? Highly unlikely.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Mar 15, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
yep
sox-inda-south picked him in the 11th round.
Not a big fan of feliz in a non keeper league. In the 11th round the P drafted were:
11-1 : Weaver
11-2 Feliz SP/RP?
11-3 Lackey
11-4 Garza
11-5 Floyd
11-6 Marmol RP
11-7 Jurrjens
11-8 Wolf
To be honest i think Feliz is an extreme reach in round 11: id rank them fantasywise for 2010: Garza>Weaver>Jurrjens>Lackey>Floyd>Wolf>Marmol>Feliz
My general advise would be stay away from highly regarded prospects in non keeper they generally dissappoint, see Price, Wieters, Snyder, Maybin last year. Someone always overvalues them in the hope for breakout. It can happen sure but more often it wont.
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 15, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions
I did a couple of mock drafts
and got Feliz in the 12th and the 13th. I think he is a good flier pick cuz if he is in setup he should give a good WHIP and K’s for the little innings he pitches. If Franscisco gets hurt he looks like he would dominate as a closer. And if he starts he has a high ceiling skill set. You got to love a guy that has a 91 MPH changeup lol
again i disagree
there is almost no value in a setup guy in roto. In the 12th and 13th round you still get real Closers like Wagner, Street, Soriano, Fuentes etc. Its tough to imagine that he outscores those Closers if he becomes the Texas Closer sometime midseason. He pitches like 60 innings so his contribution to whip is 1/3 of a guy who pitches 180 innings. Rounds 12 and 13 is too early to pick a guy who is basically a bench player untill he starts or becomes the closer. Round 18+ is something different.
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 15, 2010 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Though there is value if he starts
and still qualifies as a RP for a few weeks. I’m hoping that’s the case with Phil Hughes
Actually in a points league like ours
A very good setup man can actually outpoint a lower tier closer
Case in point (using 2009 stats) the three Matts on my team
Matt Thornton – 282 pts
Matt Guerrier – 268 pts
Matt Capps – 212 pts
Holds = 3 pts each (or 1/2 of the points that a save garners you)
I know thats why i said almost no value in roto, (rotisserie)
I like Feliz, but not in round 12-13 whatever scoring format. There is always one guy overrating a young player thinking he will be huge. Everybody has him as a sleeper to the point were he gets overvalued i think Feliz is a prime example of this. its just hard to imagine that he outscores guys like Garza, Lackey, Jurrjens, Porcello, Price, Oswalt etc. So there a quite some decent SP left in round 12+
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 15, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
He's not a good fantasy player.
Your problem is an inability so separate fantasy stats and other stats.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Mar 17, 2010 7:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice punctuation.
Had you followed Bloggy’s link to his team above, you may have recognized his right-fielder.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
THAT'S RIGHT!
Bloggy has Drew and that means Bloggy WINS.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
ACTUALLY, advanced metrics show that that wasn't "premature".
I was also curious
What round did Manny Ramirez go in? In my mock drafts he was going in the 5th.
He lasted all the way till round 8.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Mar 18, 2010 12:01 PM EDT up reply actions
It's true.
I SAID.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
I have a five-tool player in my pants.
ACTUALLY, advanced metrics show that that wasn't "premature".
Projections
I’ve downloaded the ZiPs Build 2 Projections which is an Excel Sheet
I then created a Points Projection from the Data that corresponds to our league scoring (with the exception of errors)
Manny Ramirez is projected to be the 39th most valuable positional player in our league
Is it possible to run a projection on our entire league?
I mean, I’m sure it’s “possible,” but is there a way to do it that wouldn’t be too time consuming? I’m curious how our teams would stack up in projection-land.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
I'll run it
The problem will be pitchers – ZiPs runs a very limited projection on pitchers (no saves, holds, QS) In fact I don’t think there is a projection system out there that runs Quality Starts
What I can do is use the ZiPs baseline for pitchers and then use something like CHONE to fill in the missing stats. For QS I’d have to use last years percentage vs. the numer of starts projected.
I’ll see what I can come up with
BZ
cbssports has qualitystarts in their fantasy projections
i used the composite projections from mlb411 for the draft:
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/archives/2010/03/updated_projections_372010.html
download link on the top of that site.
Dont like Chone at all this year very conservative on alot of guys ihmo.
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 18, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
http://rapidshare.com/files/365120026/2010.composite.projections.030710.xls.html
the file with calculated points value for our league
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 18, 2010 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Pitching points after the projections spreadsheet i posted
Acumulated points for all pitchers including the ones on the bench:
1. German Red Sox 6180,85
2. Sologub 4351,45
3. David H. 4156,97
4. Sox-inda-south 4075,16 + Aroldis Chapman
5. Boston Braves 4044,15
6. tommy.otm 3837,01
7. crabchowdah 3812,62
8. BOB Zupic 3782,87
9. Ben Buchanan 3744,97
10. Bloggy 3602,92
11. upChuck 3542,23
12. BigRedDog42 3460,7
Chapman wasnt in the projection spreadsheet so i left him out.
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 19, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
i did add the values from cbssports.com
in their fantasy projections they have QS, but i only did that for the top 100 pitchers.
i just saw you picked up the 2 best free agent pitchers ;)
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 19, 2010 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions
i should also add
that the projection sheet didnt include holds. So setup guys get to little credit
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 19, 2010 10:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Here is ZiPs Offenses
This is for the 13 starters only (I used the best UTIL players for each team)
Bear in mind this is only offense
upChuck – 5554 (427.2 pts per player)
tommy.otm – 5227 (402.1 pts per player)
sox-inda-south – 5180 (398.5 pts per player)
sologlub – 5293 (407.2 pts per player)
David Harnden – 5616 (432 pts per player)
German Red Sox – 5319 (409.2 pts per player)
crabchowdah – 4968 (382.2 pts per player)
BobZupcic – 5669 (436.1 pts per player)
BigRedDog42 – 5359 (412.2 pts per player)
Bloggy – 5205 (400.4 pts per player)
Ben Buchanan – 5679 (436.8 pts per player)
Boton Braves – 5245 (403.5 pts per player)
Damn straight I'd better have the best offense.
My pitching is…Not great.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Mar 18, 2010 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Thanks for doin that GRSF
I feel alot more confident being in the top half of both of those lists, I was worried my draft strategy wouldn’t pay off. Had to have that consistency at catcher though.
Whoever said it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, probably lost.
by David Harnden on Mar 19, 2010 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions
If my pitchers
can put up the numbers they’re capable of, I should be ok, but thats kind of a big if.
Whoever said it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, probably lost.
by David Harnden on Mar 22, 2010 6:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Saves are really hard for a computer system to project. The main issue is that the primary determinant of how many saves a pitcher will have is whether or not a manager chooses to use him as a closer. One of my primary “rules” for ZiPS is that I don’t want to be mixing objective data with subjective knowledge because if I print out a bottom line, then it becomes far more difficult for someone to get much use of the projection (because they would not know which subjective factors I already took into account while objective factors are of the same variety for every player).
What I may try to do in the future is model theoretical saves for all relievers and simply tell people to decide who they think will be the closer based on news – obviously some guys are pretty easy to determine, but I’m trying to keep subjective elements out wherever possible.
For quality starts, I could probably make a probabilistic model for estimated quality starts from runs allowed and innings/game, though not soon enough to help you guys right this minute.
--
Dan Szymborski
BBTF
Dan on ESPN Insider
by D.Szymborski on Mar 18, 2010 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure how many leagues use QS
and I’m still not sure why we did other than the fact that it gives decent-good starters on poorer teams a chance to earn some points outside of wins. We’ve got 4 pts for a win AND 4 pts for a QS, meaning a good win will in essence garner a starter 8 pts.
Thanks for the comment
BZ
The Goal was
to come up with a point system in which the elite pitchers have slightly more points than the elite hitters, because of the higher injury risk pitchers have.
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 19, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Yep
I was just implicating that it is different…..typically leagues reward wins and not so much decent pitchers that get QS…for instance a Barry Zito/Paul Maholm type actually has as much value as a decent outfielder like Juan Rivera/Cody Ross.
Mine
My closer situation is…iffy
C
Miguel Montero
(Ari – C)
1B
Lance Berkman
(Hou – 1B)
2B
Chase Utley
(Phi – 2B)
3B
Pablo Sandoval
(SF – 1B,3B)
SS
Jimmy Rollins
(Phi – SS)
IF
Mark DeRosa
(SF – 1B,3B,LF,RF)
LF
Raúl Ibañez
(Phi – LF)
CF
Andrew McCutchen
(Pit – CF)
RF
Shin-Soo Choo
(Cle – LF,RF)
OF
Kyle Blanks
(SD – LF,RF)
OF
Rajai Davis
(Oak – CF)
Util
Chase Headley
(SD – 3B,LF)
Util
Nick Johnson
(NYY – 1B)
SP
Ubaldo Jiménez
(Col – SP)
SP
Wandy Rodríguez
(Hou – SP)
RP
Huston Street
(Col – RP)
RP
Rafael Soriano
(TB – RP)
P
Ryan Dempster
(ChC – SP)
P
John Lackey
(Bos – SP)
P
Jorge De La Rosa
(Col – SP)
P
Justin Duchscherer
(Oak – SP)
BN
Buster Posey
(SF – C)
BN
Brandon Lyon
(Hou – RP)
BN
Paul Maholm
(Pit – SP)
BN
Brian Matusz
(Bal – SP)
BN
Zach Duke
(Pit – SP)
Honey Nut Ichiros
C-Mauer
1B-Fielder
2B-Aaron Hill
3B-Figgins
SS-Jeter (bleh)
IF- Casy McGehee
LF-Adam Lind
CF- Torii ‘imposter’ Hunter
RF- Markakis
OF- Beltran
OF- Swisher
Util- Marlon Byrd
Util- Alberto Callaspo
BN- Jack Cust (hehe)
SP-Danks
SP- D-Lowe
RP- Clayton Richard
RP- Kenshin Kawakami
P- Randy Wolf
P- Brandon Webb
P- Rich Harden
P- Eric Bedard
BN- Bronson Arroyo
BN- Joel PIniero
BN- Joe Blanton
BN- Ross Ohlendorf
Here’s to hoping!
Whoever said it doesn't matter whether you win or lose, probably lost.
Some Fantasy Off Topic stuff. So i use this thread:
A 12 team keeper league with similar scoring as ours. Im taking over a team in this league. You can keep up to 8 guys drafted in round 8 or later with the rounds you keep them in. I can choose from:
Geovany Soto C 11 Rd
Alexei Ramirez 21 Rd
Ryan Roberts 2B 22 Rd
Everth Cabrera SS 22 Rd
Andrew McCutchen OF 22 Rd
Carlos Quentin OF 20 Rd
Alcides Escobar SS 22 Rd
Jair Jurrjens SP 9 Rd
Yusmeiro Petit SP 22 Rd
David Price SP 12 Rd
Richard Clayton SP 22 Rd
Brian Tallet SP 22 Rd
David Aardsma RP 22 Rd
Ryan Rowland-Smith SP 11 Rd
Matt Gamel 3B 22 Rd
Zach Duke SP 22 Rd
Yovani Gallardo SP 19 Rd
Sean West SP 22 Rd
Ramon Hernandez C 12 Rd
Russel Branyan 1B 22 Rd
Morgan Nyjer OF 22 Rd
Xavier Nady OF 21 Rd
The Guys in Bold, are the ones i think i will keep. Biggest question was David Price in round 12 vs Alcides Escobar in 22 vs Evereth Cabrera in 22. I dont necessarily think Price is good value in round 12 for this year, but he obviously has ace potential and could still break through huge.
So the question is how good can Alcides Escobar be? That he has a great glove is of no interest for fantasy. I often hear 50 SB potential but he doesnt really walk alot. Projected line is .278/.319/.370 not really sold on him for fantasy.
Would you keep anybody else?
by German Red Sox Fan on Mar 23, 2010 7:13 PM EDT reply actions
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