Red Sox Rotation: What Should the Back End Look Like?

Buchholz and Daisuke in the rotation, Wake in the pen. Both Buchholz and Daisuke need to prove they’re worthy of being on a big league pitching staff. Buchholz isn’t going to learn anything in AAA this year, and Daisuke needs to show his value to the Sox. That require innings for both of them. Luckily (I guess?) it’s highly unlikely they’ll all be healthy at the same time for any long period of time this year. This is a much better 5th starter situation than in previous years. While Daisuke is on the DL for the beginning of the year Wake will be in the rotation. Then Daisuke will come back and wake will go to the pen, get fatigued, go on the DL. When he’s back Buchholz will be “dealing with the toll of a full season” and rest for a few weeks, along with what ever reasons can be thought up to get Beckett, Lester and Lackey a short DL trip to keep them fresh for September. Over the year there will be plenty of starts for everyone.

Injuries will fix this: No way with their current pedigree that Dice-K/Wake make a full-season….probably will see them as the No. 5 intermittantly splitting time on the DL

1. Beckett
2. Lester
3. Lackey
4. Buchholz
5. Wake/Dice-K
6. Bonser/Tazawa/Bowden (spot starter, double-headers, etc.)

the fact is, healthy Dice-K is just a better pitcher than Wake. Both are confounding pitchers, Wake is great, loveable, and more reliable, but just not as effective a starter as Matsuzaka is. As others have said, they will probably not all be at 100% for a large part of the season (and having 6 gives Francona flexibility if someone is feeling just a little under the weather to have a spot starter who isn’t an unproven farmhand, which should keep them all pitching better through the year), but while they are all healthy, Buchholz and Dice-K are in there (I don’t think there is a question about Buchholz, he needs to grow in the bigs, if they put him in AAA, they might as well just release him, he won’t grow at all down there).

Beckett, Lester, and Lackey are fresh and love getting into a routine. Pitch them every five days in April. And you can use Beckett or Lester as the #1 and Wakefield or Buchholz as the #4. That’s up to you and Theo.
Download your sortable calender and fill in the days.

Starter #1: April 4, 9, 14, 19, 24
Starter #2: April 6, 11, 16, 21, 26
Starter #3: April 7, 12, 17, 22, 27
Starter #4: April x, 10, 15, 20, 25
Starter #5: April y, y, 18, 23, 28

Sox off days: April 5, 8, 13, 29
x- #4 starter throws a simulated game on the off day April 5th.
y- #5 starter pitches in Pawtucket at home against Lehigh and Rochester on the April 8th and 13th.
All five starters get their routine in April of throwing every five days.
Who our #4, #5, or #6 pitcher is, isn’t as important as getting our Big Three each five starts in April.
If I had to pick today:

1. Beckett
2. Lester
3. Lackey
4. Wakefield
5. Buchholz / Dice-K
   Buchholz still has an option year left and the front office may use it the protect as many pitchers as possible coming out of camp on opening day.
   And in April we do have rain delays but not many rain outs so this is Plan A.
   Pitch every five days!

but Badass wins both spots, hands down. ;-)

In all seriousness, I expect it to be Buchholz and Matsuzaka, with either one being 4 or 5. At least this will be the case as we get towards the dog days of summer.

I’m not saying that Wakefield will “get the proverbial shaft,” but to protect him from injury he may not start as often. I do realize Theo & Co. worked with to redo his contract and they want him to be the all-time winning pitcher in Red Sox history, but I wonder if Wake can do it with his back acting up the past several seasons. I would love to see him reach the record as he’s one of my most favorite players since I really got back into baseball during middle school.

However, with Matsuzaka and Wakefield having injury concerns, could it be possible that we see them both sharing the 5th spot? It would be something Matsuzaka is used to from Japanese baseball and it would keep Wakefield fresh. As for the 4th spot, Buchholz should get it, as he’s done growing down in AAA: it’s time to learn and grow in the Majors.

Wakefield typically has trouble later in the season, though, but does quite well earlier in the year. So I’d expect to see Dice-K as an occasional starter now, and Wakefield as an occasional starter later in the season.

You want the Big Three in as often as possible, but I think it might be a good idea to have an extra starter who works, say, every seven or eight days, who can spell the different main guys every so often. (Having an occasional day off probably wouldn’t hurt them too much.) That also makes them available for bullpen duty every so often if need be.

Due to injuries or ineffectiveness, the Sox are going to have to rotate guys on and off the DL. There’s plenty of innings for each of the 6 starters.

1 – Dice-K begins the season on the DL. When he returns…
2a – Wake will at some point go on the DL, and/or
2b – Buchholz gets traded (as part of the Adrian Gonzales deal?), and/or
2c – Boof or someone else’s great work earns starts.

I really think it should be DiceK and Wake in the starting rotation, with Buch as our long reliever, which we have been lacking since trading away Masterson. If either Wake or Dice-K struggle in any given game and leave after 2 or 3 innings (it’s happened), Buch could be used to get through the 7th or 8th.

Should look something like this.

http://www.sonjabailes.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/butt.jpg