The Paranoid's Guide to the Boston Red Sox, Part I: Riverdancing with Wolves

As the season fast approaches, many baseball fans glance longingly at their calendars, imploring the days to pass more quickly, for April 4th and its glorious Opening Day to arrive in all their splendor. But there is another class of sports aficionados, a cohort whose excitement and joy is mixed with ever-present fear and a despairing pessimism. For a long time, this group was collectively known as Red Sox Fans, the noble, hearty, and long-suffering fanbase whose paragons could do no right. The men in uniform changed, but whether Williams, Boggs, or Nomar, the result was the same.

This ideal, we are told, is no more. Two World Series victories crushed the team's Sisyphyean legacy, allowing fans to marvel at something other than portents of doom (specifically shiny trophies). Success brought new fans, some previously too afraid of defeat to lavish their emotions on the team; others all too willing to attach themselves to a team and sport they only vaguely understood. And success brought with it envy: the tone of the media and other fanbases turned against Boston very quickly, as the underdogs became the uberdogs and the "Idiots" became the Enemy. The end of this Era was supposed to be a sad affair, one in which the Red Sox became a boring, normal team, and some writers mourned its passing. The future of Boston looked brighter than ever, and surely the melancholy, desultory, choleric Red Sox fan was a thing of the past.

And yet they linger. The bright new paradise of Red Sox Nation was supposed to cast out its pariahs, the doomsayers and woebringers. Dan Shaughnessy was supposed to be forced out of this utopia, and yet he remains coiled around the Boston Globe Sports section like some enormous python, tempting readers to eat fruit from the Tree of Ignorance. Even some members of this community, by far the brightest, happiest place in the Nation, have been known to forecast failure, to bring up the specter of 2006, and even to criticize upstanding players like Julio Lugo and Jason Varitek.

Fear, worry, and paranoia boil in the blood of every Red Sox fan, no matter how much we fight them. So why fight at all? Let's embrace the Dark Side, and take a good hard look at the people and reasons why 2010 will be the Worst Year Ever. [Click Continue Reading for the #1 Reason]

First up is this guy:

via dinosaursneverexisted.files.wordpress.com

Jonathan Papelbon is easily the most accomplished reliever in Red Sox history. He has an astounding 1.84 career ERA, a 1.00 postseason ERA, and the team lead in career saves (151). But is he leading the team... to OBLIVION??!!!

Last year, Papelbon not only destroyed the team's chances of winning the critical ALDS game three, he also took a major step backward in the regular season. To the untrained eye, his stats seem good - 38 saves, his second highest total, and a 1.85 ERA - but we know to look harder for the cloud in his silver lining.

More advanced stats tell a different story. 2009 for Papelbon was the year of the Walk: his walk rate tripled from 1.04 BBs / 9 innings to 3.04 BB/9. All these walks led to a higher FIP (Fielding Independent Percentage, interpreted like ERA, but more predictive): at 3.05 full point higher than 2009's 2.01.

Part of the problem was pitch quality, as 81% of Paps' pitches were fastballs, but his heater was less effective. Fangraphs.com gives the run value of his fastball at 13.7, which is quite a step down from his awesome 23.3 in 2007. The obvious fix would be to throw more offspeed pitches to vary things up, but neither of Papelbon's secondary pitches (slider, splitter) are much better than average. Knowing that the fastball is coming and the offspeed stuff isn't very good, hitters can sit fastball when Paps is in. And when Paps' control is off, as it was often last year, opposing batters can ignore anything that isn't right down the middle and take their walks, filling the bases and creating even more pressure on the embattled closer.

Optimists might point out that our closer was still one of the best relievers in baseball last year, and expect another good run in 2010, but we know better. When you've got a 1-pitch pitcher with a lot of wear on his arm, and a big free agent contract on the horizon, the last thing you expect is a big season. In 2010, the only thing Jonathan Papelbon will be saving is himself... for the Yankees.