Pitches per plate appearance- the forgotten offensive stat
by wolf9309 on Feb 4, 2010 11:44 AM EST
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Amid all the discussions of offense, one key stat that is very frequently forgotten is pitches per plate appearance. Why is this so important? Because the more pitches each batter can take, the faster we can get opposing starters out of the game and get to the (usually) weaker bullpens. The faster our lineup can get starters out of the game, the more pitchers we can make opposing teams go through, not only making it so we face the strong starters for less innings, but also helping to wear down the bullpen by the end of a 3 game series.
So obviously, seeing a lot of pitches is important to do, and it's a well known fact that the Red Sox are one of the main preachers of plate discipline out there, so let's see how exactly the 2010 Red Sox are going to stack up in this oft-forgotten stat.
After the jump, we'll look at how the starting 9 performed in this category in 2009 and see if we can pinpoint any particular trends.
Here are the specific PPA numbers for each of the 2010 starting members of the Red Sox:
Jacoby Ellsbury: 3.77 (best)
Dustin Pedroia: 3.95 (best)
Victor Martinez: 4.05 (best)
Kevin Youkilis: 4.41 (improved from 2008, best was 4.42 in 2006)
J.D. Drew: 4.12 (best was 4.16 in 2008)
David Ortiz: 4.19 (best since joining the Red Sox)
Adrian Beltre: 3.56 (injured, career average 3.77)
Marco Scutaro: 4.06 (best)
Mike Cameron: 3.96
Now, first of all, the average number of pitches per one time through the starting lineup is 36.07. That number is phenomenal and means that it should be very rare that any starter can make it through our full ineup 3 times or more in a game.
For my notes on the side, let me explain- the ones who say (best) next to their name (please note that this is 4 out of the 9 players) had more pitches per plate appearance in 2009 than any previous career year. These are players who have been trending upwards- there are no numbers that look like extreme outliers here, just like improved plate discipline. From these players, I expect to see them all either progress in 2010 or stay around where they are.
Of the other players, none of them have been trending downwards- even Ortiz, in his terrible year, saaw more pitches per plate appearance than he has since joining the Sox. Youkilis had his best year since 2006, when he was essentially at the same number as 2009. Cameron had a down year, but has not shown himself to be trending downwards apart from that year- in 2008 he had an outlier very good year, seeing 4.21 pitches per plate appearance. Beltre was terrible, seeing a mere 3.56, however, it's a given that during his injury year, most of his stats are lower than usual. His career average is 3.77, and his numbers outside of 2009 are generally closer to there.
One very positive thing to note, is that while Martinez posted a very respectable 4.04 for the year, he actually saw 4.28 per plate appearance since joining the stronger Red Sox lineup- while we can probably expect that number to fall a bit, we should expect to see great things from him on the Sox in 2010.
Overall, the numbers to me appear to be trending upwards, and I expect to see them improve further in 2010; this Red Sox lineup could well be the most patient lineup in the majors- if not, it's certainly amongst them.
But then, we are replacing players such as Bay, who was known to walk quite a bit, so is this actual improvement over the 2009 team?
The answer is a simple, unequivocal yes.
The players who are being replaced and their numbers for 2009 were:
Nick Green 3.44 (replaced by Scutaro, 4.06)
Mike Lowell: 3.67 (replaced by Beltre 3.56, career 3.77)
Jason Varitek: 3.80 (replaced by Martinez, 4.04)
Overall for 2009:
League Average PPA: 3.84
2009 Red Sox PPA: 3.94
This lineup in 2009 would have seen: 4.01
as we can see, the Red Sox downgraded a little in two areas, both of which appeared to by low outlier years for the players replacing them (Beltre and Cameron). In reality, looking at career trends, I expect Cameron and Beltre to see almost exactly the same amount of PPA in 2010 as did Bay and Lowell, respectively, in 2009. In addition to this, Martinez and Scutaro are massive improvements over Varitek and Green (who I chose because he saw the most PAs for the Sox at short, I know Alex Gonzalez posted almost the same exact PPA numbers during his time with the Sox).
While some people may argue that the offense is weakened from 2009, I would argue back that there are more subtle stats than OPS and HR that can make a huge difference over the long haul of the season. Facing more tired pitchers, and more weaker pitchers in general, should actually help boost the other offensive stats of the team. This is a subtle difference that should add up to something pretty significant over the course of a season.
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Nice article wolfie.
It would be interesting to see the inverse stats on pitches per out by the pitching staff.
I like your closing points – the synergistic effects show that baseball does indeed have team effects and isn’t just an assemblage of individual numbers.
A more important synergy should be how the premium defense of the various members adds up and how it affects the pitching (for one thing, it should help keep those pitches per out counts down).
that would be interesting to go into
I don’t really have time to go into it in depth at the moment, but a cursory look at the numbers looks unlike what I expected. I think I’ll look at that in more detail later on.
The defense probably will help from a mental standpoint if only because the pitchers will be less afraid to pitch into the zone. Apart from that, however, defense can’t do much to keep pitch count down at fenway at least because, with so little foul ground, a pitch is either put into play or it isn’t- there aren’t a whole lot of balls being fouled off that turn into outs. It’ll be interesting to see how the pitchers adapt to a different defense and how their numbers change in 2010 compared to 2009.
Not like you expected how?
I went pretty far into this a while ago and came up with the basic conclusion that team defense (by UZR, at least) is mostly effective at the extremes. A team UZR of +10 doesn’t necessarily corellate particularly well to BABIP or ERA-FIP, nor does one of -10. But at -30 or -40, you start noticing really inflated ERAs and BABIPs, and vice versa for high numbers.
Luckily or the Sox, they’re at a big extreme right now.
USG
right but pitches per out is a whole different thing than BABIP or ERA-FIP
mostly I was surprised how high the PPO were for Papelbon, Wagner, Bard, and Saito. Though I suppose it makes sense for the strikeout pitchers. I was initially surprised by how low Dice-k’s was, but then justified it because he was so hittable that hitters weren’t seeing as many of his pitches- though it does look a lot like his numbers from 2007.
Argh. Now you've got me making a spreadsheet with...
UZR, Infield UZR, Outfield UZR, ERA-FIP, BABIP, GB%, FB%, LD%, and tRA to look for defensive corellation to run prevention.
Dammit
USG
OK, talking partially to myself now, but how would this work as a stat?
Weighted UZR
Take IFFB% + GB% to get IF%, or the percentage of balls hit to the infield.
Then take OFFB% (based on the formula above) + LD% to get OF%, or the percentage of balls hit to the outfield (that remain in play)
Now, take infield UZR and multiply it by IF%/OF%
Then, take outfield UZR and multiply it by OF%/IF%
Thus somewhat appropriately applying the weight of infield UZR to a ground-ball or pop-up heavy team. Ditto for outfield hits.
There would be some problems as far as the ease of getting to a pop-up vs. the ease of getting to a LD, but I don’t know enough about UZR to necessarily make that work.
USG
Interesting.
The weights would be based on the Teams own relative infield hits+outs and outfield hits+outs, right?
So the result would give you an UZR that balances the value of an assymettric skill distribution (say, gold glove outfield plus a bunch of club-handed infielders) against the infield/outfield profile of balls in play for that pitching staff & park.
Is that the idea?
Indeed.
There’s not a ton of difference at first go. I think something has to be done about minimizing LD and IFFB effect.
USG
I would think that PPO would be affected by BABIP
in the sense that good defense will turn the extra ground ball or fly ball into an out, reducing the number of pitches needed to get the next out.
Scenario 1:
Batter A sees 4 pitches an puts ball in play … it sneaks through for a hit or Base on Error.
Batter B sees 4 pitches and records an out.
Pitch total: 8 Outs: 1
Scenario 2:
Batter A sees 4 pitches an puts ball in play … which the defense turns into an out.
Pitch total: 4 Outs: 1
That sort of thing.
Team PPO vs Team UZR might not track perfectly – I guess that would merge to many other considerations. But there might be some correlated movement. Might be possible to fold out FIPs to isolate the effect.
in that same thought process, better defense could turn more foul balls into outs, which would limit the pitches per plate appearance as well. However, it probably would not make too much of an effect.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
well, that's already a known park effect, right?
Ex. Oakland. Big foul territory. Helps the pitchers.
so your question goes to, if you add good fielding on top of that – how much MORE does that help the pitcher?
I’m not sure how big an effect it would be here in Fenway, with so little foul territory.
padres may be planning to trade adrian gonzo
Posted: 03 Feb 2010 12:40 PM PST
Padres CEO Jeff Moorad stated the obvious yesterday regarding first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Tim Sullivan of the San Diego Union-Tribune has the quote:
“While I’d be thrilled to have him part of the organization for the long term, the early signals indicate his cost will be greater than our ability to pay.”
Gonzalez’s agent John Boggs agreed, and explained that he expects a trade:
“The feeling we’re getting is more than likely (the Padres) are going to have to trade Adrian because (they) can’t afford him.”
These quotes are far from groundbreaking, so consider this your official Gonzalez Trade Prediction post. Tell us the acquiring team and players given up. Keep in mind that at $10.25MM over the next two years, any team willing to surrender the right players could acquire Gonzalez. Given their first base incumbents, though, the Cardinals, Brewers, Phillies, Reds, Yankees, and Twins appear unlikely. “http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/”
Well let's see
AL East
New York (Tex) – Nope
Boston (Youk/Beltre) – Nope
Toronto (Overbay) – Rebuilding – Nope
Baltimore (Atkins) – Maybe but probably not
AL Central
Chicago (Konerko) – Possibly and move Paul to DH although not much trading ammo
Cleveland – (Valbuena) – Rebuilding – Possibility (they have the trading ammo)
Detroit (Cabrera) – Nope
Kansas City (Butler) – Should but Nope
Minnesota (Morneau/Mauer) – Nope
AL West
Los Angeles (Morales) – Nope
Oakland (Ellis) – Probably not due to $$
Seattle (Kotchman/Garko) – Hmm, spending money this year…agressive GM
Texas (Davis/Smoak) – a return?? deep farm system, but does he block Smoak?
From the AL I’d say – Texas or Seattle make the most sense
I don't think Seattle has the prospects
after all the work that’s been done, especially with Jack Z saying he doesn’t want to completely clear the farm. That DOES seem like a perfect match for everyone though.
I think Baltimore has a decent shot- they’re quickly approaching one of their short windows where they’ll be competitive in the AL East, so they may decide to take advantage of that. Atkins is not really a good choice for a competitor at 1B.
a few more teams I don’t think should be discounted- Braves and Mets. Both of them would pretty much kill for him.
I just want to take a minute to reflect on what an awesome job I think Jack Z is doing
I mean, really, that team looks very impressive to me all of a sudden.
But I agree Jack Z has been pretty good
especially considering the situation he came into.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Why are we a "nope"?
I can’t imagine that we’d sit on the sidelines in Agon discussions because we signed Adrian Beltre to a one-year contract, especially if Beltre is sitting around his .325 career OBP, and even more especially if Papi continues on a precipitous decline.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Need, Prospects
Would have to be a major need and even then Theo is very hesitant to deal Buchhoz/Westmoreland/Kelly…asking price could go down but I doubt very much
Price could be an issue, sure.
In particular, the O’s would be tough competition. I don’t see the Rangers being a big competitor, as they have Kyle Blanks ready to take over first base, making Smoak (who’d be the Ranger’s biggest chip) redundant to them.
But as for need, I would think if he’s traded it happens at the All Star break. And while, on paper, it looks like we don’t have any “needs” this season, I see a few ways in which the need may arise. Beltre’s 2009 power outtage could linger, Cameron is getting up there in years, Papi… And then, 2011 and forward, both Beltre and Papi could be gone.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Those questions are why I'd prefer to wait
into the season. The value on holding those prospects through the ‘bridge’ year is high enough that I’d wait to see if we DO need to make a move to shore up one of those problems. We’ll know well before the trading deadline.
If A-Gon goes before then, I just don’t think we can afford to pull the trigger early so we’ll miss him. If we dealt Buch and then Wake’s back imploded, that would really suck. ’Better to go into ST with 6 starters. Someone always seems to get hurt in the spring and then it settles down later in the year.
If we're not in the conversion
then the Padres’ potential haul gets lower. They’d need us looming to extract more. better prospects from the O’s, etc.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Which is why I anticipate we well be in the conversation one way or another.
If the Orioles are in on him, the Sox will want to make sure it costs them dearly. They’ve been the “joke team” of the division now (sorry, Orioles fans), but they’re definitely threatening to explode. Give them A-Gon for a minimal price, and that could easilly put them over the top in 2011.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 5, 2010 11:54 AM EST up reply actions
They won't sacrifice their future for him.
The O’s have a small window of opportunity over the next three or four years to establish themselves, if the price for A-Gon gets too high because of the Sox I see him going elsewhere.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 5, 2010 11:57 AM EST up reply actions
Meh.
I’d rather have them give too much for him and lose out to Boston while stomping on New York.
by TheLoneDavid on Feb 5, 2010 12:16 PM EST up reply actions
That "small window" is why Agon would be perfect for them.
If they could grab him without giving up the farm, he could put them ver the top. Jones, Weiters, Agon and Markakis would be the envy of the league.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Please
Most teams “need” A-Gon, wether they know it or not. Would you trade Kelly, Westmorland + ? and Beltre + $10 mil for Agon? I would, in a hearbeat. Do the Sox have anybody in the minors that could be another A-Gon? I haven’t heard about any. A couple of possible major leage players for an established, young star; a no-brainer.
Like hell it is.
Neither Kelly nor Westmoreland will be A-Gon, no, because they’re not first basemen.
But Kelly can be a front-of-the-rotation starter and Westmoreland can be a power-hitting, base-stealing, OBP machine center fielder. And neither of them will cost at least 18 million dollars within a year’s time. You often say you don’t care about the Red Sox’ wallet, but until you start figuring it into the equation, you’re not working in reality.
Think about the Santana trades that were going around back in the day. You could have easilly said “Would you trade Lester, and 18 million for an established star like Santana? It’s a no brainer!”
Except you’d be trading similar production in Lester and Santana
And then you wouldn’t be able to afford any number of other improvements.
USG
Trade
The point is that A-gon, at @$10 mil for the next 2 seasons, makes him “affordable” for just about all teams looking to make a run, really all but the real misers like the Pirates and the Marlins.
All you really need to do is subtract the teams that already have a good 1B and that leaves a bunch of teams. You really don’t see many trades like this before the season, because most teams are set at positions. My guess is he will be traded in July or December this year. The Red Sox almost have to be players, although they would prefer the Padres to trade him after 2010, which I believe is more likely. Remember, Beltre is on a one year deal with a $5 mil player option for 2011. Under this scenario, he could take that to sit on the bench if he wants, but I don’t think he will.
Considering the likely haul of prospects you'd have to give up to get him
it only makes sense to trade for him if you’re going to sign him for big money. long term. That takes a lot of teams out of the running.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
That haul will go way down as the Padres delay.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 5, 2010 12:23 PM EST up reply actions
Can't trade him now
Everybody has already made their plans for their 1B going into the season, so the Padres have to wait for the market to develop. They’ll make a concerted push to trade him in July.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
They'll get plenty then.
Just so long as they don’t wait for July next year…
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 5, 2010 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe
Yes, takes some teams out. But the Braves traded for Texeria knowing he would go to FA and the Angels did the same later. I admire them for trying to win now. That is the goal, right? To Win, not have a pretty good, young and cheap team, right?
But the Braves didn't win anything.
They are the perfect example of why you don’t trade the farm for a player you can’t afford, unless you are convinced he is the missing piece in the campionship puzzle. Teixeira did everything they could’ve asked of him, but it wasn’t enough to put them over the hump, and he was ultimately flipped for Casey Kotchman.
Consider what they gave up – Saltalamacchia, who at the time was considered one of the better hitting prospects and who might just start hitting yet, Neftali Perez, who has blossomed into one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, and Elvis Andrus, one of the best fielding SS in baseball, at age 21, plus the Braves first rounder from 2005 and another guy who is a useful AAAA arm.
I bet the Braves’ FO wishes they could have a do-over on that one.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Yyyeah
Using the Teixeira to the Braves or Bedard to the Mariners trades to support your point only works if your point is not to make trades like those.
I know, I know, minor leaguers, even more established ones, fail all the time. Look at the season Lars Anderson had after he was ranked our top prospect. I get that, they carry more risk than your average major league player and so a lot of people consider them expendable for the right player. And depending on the major league player, and their age, and contract, etc. they could be right. Maybe we should have parted with Bowden or Anderson last offseason. Miguel Montero for Bowden sure looks more palatable right about now, doesn’t it?
But the fact is, you can’t just completely trade away all your top prospects for one guy. We’ve been very lucky in being able to watch guys like Lester, Pedroia, Papelbon, Youk, Bard, and others develop here and, more importantly, be protected by Theo and Co. from trades. If the Sox FO thinks that highly of Kelly and Westmoreland, I’ll trust ‘em. Could they be wrong in the end? Sure, but they have a good track record. I’m certainly not going to complain if some other team completely empties their farm system for A-Gon (and I’d be even happier if that team was some NL team) and we pass up that opportunity.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Feb 7, 2010 5:24 AM EST up reply actions
That is my point.
I’m saying we should be and will be in the conversation, but that we shouldn’t give up the farm to get him.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
Yeah, sorry, was trying to back up your point
I just did it in a sarcastic manner.
Honestly, I could see us possibly giving up some good pieces for A-Gon if the deal was right. But I definitely don’t see us giving up both Kelly AND Westmoreland, that seems like something that will easily come back to bite us on the ass. It would be one (maybe Kelly) and lesser prospects, and there’s no guarantee the Friars take that deal. I’m not going to completely rule out Theo ever making a deal like that, it just seems doubtful, and I don’t see that as a bad thing really.
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Feb 7, 2010 1:40 PM EST up reply actions
Ugh, I think if Kelly had gone pitching all the way
We would’ve made that Bowden – Montero deal.
But we weren’t sure if we had a guy who was gonna come up and be that #1 in the system for us, so eh.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 7, 2010 12:06 PM EST up reply actions
Not to mention I don't think Montero was ever that good in the minors
I remember lots of discussion about it, but who saw Montero having the year he did?
DFA Beckett
by South Coast Ghost on Feb 7, 2010 1:43 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, he had a great couple years in the minors in '05-'06
The knock against him was a bad 2007 in the MLB. But his ‘08 had been an improvement, and given his age, I think we make that trade with better backup in the system. But at the time, we had Tazawa who we didn’t know anything about, and Kelly who may never pitch or may suck. Our #2 guy after Bowden was Doubront, basically.
USG
What about the Rays?
"You know you're having a bad day when the fifth inning rolls around and they drag the warning track." - Mike Flanagan, Baltimore Orioles pitcher, 1992.
I could see that happening.
I’d be pretty aggressive if I were in their shoes.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
great work wolf
This is still a very patient lineup with a lot of pop. And one thing the seeing of all these pitches will help with is our guys on the bases. As I said in a previous post we have a lot of guys now that can steal a bag if needed. I fully expect Pedey and Cameron to take at least 20 bases this year. Scutaro and Beltre should be good for 15 each as well if Tito let’s these guys use their athleticism. And all this is on top of Ellsbury of course.
Patience can also lead to hitters counts which would be great for hit n run opportunities as well.
Finally
Even I like stats that can stand on their own; not dependent upon other factors, like the ballpark
As was pointed out earlier
Fenway has a very small foul territory. Thus, some balls that would be outs in Oakland are in the stands here. Ergo, ballpark factors into this stat too.
Sorry.
Manny ain't the only bad man.
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