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Around SBN: The Gift Of The 2003 Tigers

The Red Sox Farm System: Where Do We Stand?

 Now that all experts have given their prospects and system ranking (except our regretted USG), I thought it would be appropriate to sum up all those rankings in terms of prospects and the whole system. But before I start this, let's see what has been the front office blueprint in the draft and on the International Free Agents market and how that's impacted the talent pool in the minors:

After years of drafting polished, fast-to-the-big-leagues-type players (Pedroia, Lowrie, Ellsbury, Papelbon...), there was a shift to focus on higher impact younger players (by not hesitating to go over-slot as it was the case for Kelly, Westmoreland, Renfroe and Lars or large signing bonuses as it was the case for Almanzar and Iglesias) that left a void in the upper levels of the minors and depth in lower levels. Here's what Theo and Hazen has to say:

"I think the clear strength of our farm system is in a group of very high-ceiling players that we feel great about, most of whom are 18-20 years old,’’ said general manager Theo Epstein. "How we as an organization can impact those players and help them with their development and reach their ceilings will be a hugely important factor in our success starting in probably about 2012 and beyond.’’

 

"That’s where the biggest gap is right now, at Triple A,’’ said director of player development Mike Hazen. "Hopefully over the course of next year that’s going to change, but right now there aren’t enough ready players, and that’s obviously our big challenge and our problem right now, that there’s not enough major league-ready-now players sitting [there] to take positions at the major league level.’’

  So basically, the ranking of the system will be impacted by: How talented  those blue chips are and how deep the talent pool is? After the jump, we'll see what the experts think.

Star-divide

Let's start by viewing the Red Sox top prospects lists, the only ones missing here is Baseball-Intellect.com (they didn't reach the Red Sox list yet) and Project Prospect (they don't do team by team lists):

John Sickels

Baseball America

Baseball Prospectus

Hardball Times

1. R. Westmoreland

2. Casey Kelly

3. Ryan Kalish

4. Josh Reddick

5. Michael Bowden

6. Junichi Tazawa

7. Anthony Rizzo

8. Lars Anderson

9. R. Fuentes

10. S. Pimentel

11. Jose Iglesias

12. Derrick Gibson

13. Luis Exposito

14. David Renfroe

15. Alex Wilson

16. Roman Mendez

17. Peter Hissey

18. Y. Navarro

19. M. Younginer

20. Stephen Fife

1. R. Westmoreland

2. Casey Kelly

3. Josh Reddick

4. Lars Anderson

5. Ryan Kalish

6. Junichi Tazawa

7. Reymond Fuentes

8. Anthony Rizzo

9. Jose Iglesias

10. Derrick Gibson

1. Ryan Westmoreland

2. Casey Kelly

3. Josh Reddick

4. Ryan Kalish

5. Anthony Rizzo

6. Jose Iglesias

7. Junichi Tazawa

8. Michael Bowden

9. Lars Anderson

10. Reymond Fuentes

11. Derrick Gibson

1. Lars Anderson

2. Casey Kelly

3. R. Westmoreland

4. Michael Bowden

5. Stolmey Pimentel

6. Ryan Kalish

7. Junichi Tazawa

8. Josh Reddick

9. Reymond Fuentes

10. M. Almanzar

Keith Law's Top 10 Red Sox Prospects: 1. Kelly   2. Westmoreland   3. Rizzo   4. Anderson   5. Kalish   6. Iglesias   7. Tazawa    8.Gibson  9. Pimentel 10.Fuentes

The rest of the lists is here:

Fangraphs

TopProspectAlert.com

Diamond Futures

Roto Experts

1. Casey Kelly

2. R.Westmoreland

3. Junichi Tazawa

4. Josh Reddick

5. Lars Anderson

6. S. Pimentel

7. Anthony Rizzo

8. Derrick Gibson

9. Ryan Kalish

10. M. Bowden

1. R. Westmoreland

2. Casey Kelly

3. Junichi Tazawa

4. Lars Anderson

5. Josh Reddick

6. M. Bowden

7. Anthony Rizzo

8. Luis Exposit

9. Reymond Fuentes

10. Daniel Bard  (WTF?)

1. Ryan Westmoreland

2. Casey Kelly

3. Ryan Kalish

4. Lars Anderson

5. Derrick Gibson

6. Jose Iglesias

7. Josh Reddick

8. Junichi Tazawa

9. Anthony Rizzo

10. Reymond Fuentes

11. Michael Bowden

12. Jose Vinicio

13. Che-Hsuan Lin

14. David Renfroe

15. S. Pimentel

1. Ryan Kalish

2. Junichi Tazawa

3. Michael Bowden

4. Josh Reddick

5. Anthony Rizzo

6. Lars Anderson

7. R. Westmoreland

8. Jose Iglesias

9. Casey Kelly

10. R. Fuentes

 

As you see most of the lists, like the one we have here at OTM, are topped by prospects in the lower levels which confirms what Hazen and Epstein are saying. Here's where those prospects ranks in different Top 100 prospects lists:

Baseball America

Keith Law

Baseball Prospetus

Frankie Piliere

Project Prospect

R.Westmoreland

Casey Kelly

Lars Anderson

Josh Reddick

Ryan Kalish

Anthony Rizzo

Jose Iglesias

Junichi Tazawa

21

24

87

75

NR

NR

NR

NR

32

18

56

NR

86

53

91

98

13

29

NR

57

76

NR

NR

NR

39

24

65

NR

95

NR

NR

NR

27

35

NR

76

80

84

38

96

Except for Tazawa and Reddick, none of the top prospects will start the season in AAA but we can also see that the system is pretty deep with 4 to 7 prospects ranking in the Top 100 lists (those lists are generally filled with prospects who have a legitimate shot at their team 25 roster or are already in the big club).

Finally here, where different review/experts rank the Red Sox system:

Keith Law ranks the Farm System as the 2nd in MLB.

Kevin Goldstein hasn't done the ranking yet, but here's what he has to say in his article Red Sox are the best Farmers

Sure, they have the ability to spend freely in the free agent market but, at the same time, they've had the most successful player procurement system of the last decade, and it comes down to focusing on aggression, intelligence and, at times, sheer volume...
...However, with 50 rounds each year, it's the draft that provides most of the talent to any team's player development system, and no team takes advantage of their picks more than Boston..

Baseball America ranks the farm in the 6-15 range writing that "System is very young, but SS/RHP Casey Kelly, OF Ryan Westmoreland could be special."

Frankie Piliere ranks us 11th overall saying that: "Boston's low-level talent is as impressive as anyone's, with players like Ryan Westmoreland, Reymond Fuentes and Roman Mendez highlighting the list of the organization's top minor-leaguers. The Red Sox also boast some nice advanced talent in the likes of Josh Reddick and Ryan Kalish."

Diamond Futures ranks the Sox System as the 3rd best in MLB. Here's what they say about the general team process:

They do it all: Make the right trades, sign the right free agents, hit the Latin American and Pacific Rim markets hard, draft quality players—and develop them right. It must be a joy to be a Red Sox fan these days. Their Minor League system is filled with players that tend to be highly athletic—yet have proven production.

Yeah, it's a joy to be Red Sox fan those days :)

Comment 42 comments  |  11 recs  | 

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+1

excellent stuff
excellent write er, type

by Mick Lowe on Feb 24, 2010 5:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Mad compliation skills.

Good stuff.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Feb 24, 2010 2:57 PM EST reply actions  

I'm gonna be really nice

and change all those "Expect"s to “ExCepts.”

We have lingered in the chambers of the sea /
By sea-girls wreathed with seaweed red and brown /
Till human voices wake us, and we drown.

by 0157H7 on Feb 24, 2010 3:01 PM EST reply actions  

Heh

Damn, You know I’m English challenged!!

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Feb 24, 2010 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I do.

That’s why I’m not billing you for my extreme copyediting skillz.

We have lingered in the chambers of the sea /
By sea-girls wreathed with seaweed red and brown /
Till human voices wake us, and we drown.

by 0157H7 on Feb 24, 2010 3:12 PM EST up reply actions  

You've got awfully big shoes to fill, young man.

That USG was a paragon of sportswriters.

We have lingered in the chambers of the sea /
By sea-girls wreathed with seaweed red and brown /
Till human voices wake us, and we drown.

by 0157H7 on Feb 24, 2010 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

But Ben Buchanon could be a legend.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Feb 25, 2010 3:36 AM EST up reply actions  

Great job putting this together.

And yes…it feels great to be a Sox fan these days. :)

by Push on Feb 24, 2010 3:08 PM EST reply actions  

I forgot this

Doug Gray of RedsMinorLeaugues.com gave value to each and every team per their grades by John Sickels using the data found by Victor Wang and later turned into a dollar amount (surplus value) by the guys at Beyond The Box Score.

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Feb 24, 2010 4:34 PM EST reply actions  

Great Stuff hix

I agree with everything. I think our farm system is one of the hardest to grade because of the fact they are all young talent. You could easily say if all the prospects live up to the hype we have the best farm system, however, as we all know that won’t happen.

The begs the question how many of our great young prospects won’t make it all the way? Only time will tell.

This by the way as a Red Sox fan, I am glad the lower tier teams are playing at futures at fenway. Get your tickets everyone.

by drabidea on Feb 24, 2010 5:17 PM EST reply actions  

kieth law

i didn’t follow his logic on picking texas as #1 and us as #2.

i thought atl looked better as well as tb, based on his top 100.

but i think he only had 2 yankers listed and 5th in the beast. but somehow $ will trade a couple of farmers to the giants for tim lincecum. i hate those bums.

nicky hag is rated 100 on one of these lists

my favorite was diamond futures, gotta figure if anyone can predict futures it would be a guy named futures

by Mick Lowe on Feb 24, 2010 5:39 PM EST reply actions  

That is based on his top 100

I hope he looked at the whole farm system and not just who was in the top 100

by drabidea on Feb 24, 2010 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Baseball America had an interesting idea with a 11-editor, 30-round draft of minor leaguers.

The Red Sox had the most drafted players of any team at 16. They also had a points system where the higher the pick, the more points. The Sox came in 5th with 2303 points.

Drafted: (Round or pick for top-55)
Casey Kelly (19th)
Ryan Westmoreland (25th) (This got a “reaction” out of Jim Callis, who drafted next)
Josh Reddick (6)
Lars Anderson (10)
Anthony Rizzo (15)
Ryan Kalish (15)
Jose Iglesias (16)
Junichi Tazawa (17)
Reymond Fuentes (18)
Derrik Gibson (21)
Madison Younginer (22)
David Renfroe (25)
Yamaico Navarro (26)
Drake Britton (27)
Stephen Fife (28)
Stolmy Pimentel (30)

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Feb 24, 2010 7:08 PM EST reply actions  

There are good reasons for it.

Its a good comp. They were both supremely toosly high school outfielders who showed up for pro ball much more polished than expected. They had elite tools and were already far ahead of schedule translating them to skills. Their skills and tools are pretty similar, but I’d give Westmoreland an edge in power potential and Hicks an edge in throwing arm. I’m taking Westmoreland every day of the week, but I think Hicks is a simiar, excellent prospect.

They’re both also fast as ****.

by alskor on Feb 25, 2010 2:24 AM EST up reply actions  

Good post Radiohix

It really helps when we have confidence in our GM and specifically our scouting and player development departments. And having 4 picks in the top 60 of this year’s draft is going to make our system even better.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Feb 24, 2010 7:22 PM EST reply actions  

Thanks radiohix.

I’d like to see a few of these prospects get into some late inning spring training games.
I can see some young guys taking the long bus ride across the state for the Marlins, Mets, and Cardinal games and they always try to get everyone into the games when they get on the bus and cut across Florida.
Well organized read. Thanks again.

It's January and I'm running a fever...how many days 'till pitchers and catchers report?

by went9 on Feb 24, 2010 8:04 PM EST reply actions  

Very exciting.

Though I can’t help but wonder how good of a team we’ll field in 2012-2013. Even if Westy, Kelly, Iglesias, et al., pan out, I would expect there to be some growing pains.

I hope we can give the time and patience they’ll need to become solid players.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Feb 24, 2010 11:50 PM EST reply actions  

But let’s remember that most of these guys will not be Red Sox. Their value will most likely be in a trade.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Feb 25, 2010 3:51 AM EST up reply actions  

I think the intent is to build a nucleus of young talent to build the team around.

Maybe I’m misreading Theo, or maybe he’s bluffing, or maybe he’ll bow to pressure from the whiner line.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Feb 25, 2010 9:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Forecsasting 2013:

SP Lackey – 15+ million
SP Lester – 11+ million
SP Buchholz – Arbitration 2

2B – Pedroia – 10+ million
CF – Ellsbury – Arbitration 3

1B/3B – Youkilis – 13 million option

That’s the core with a ton of flexibility: Got to figure that 2-3 of the youngsters will be making their mark at the majors either in 2012 or in 2013

by BobZupcic on Feb 25, 2010 12:22 PM EST up reply actions  

It just me but I'm under the impression that Ellsbury won't be on the Red Sox roster by 2012

"That was a lot of fun… You just keep pounding balls into the gap. The one thing you don’t want to do is hit a home run. That’s a rally-killer." Jeff Francoeur

by radiohix on Feb 25, 2010 12:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Potentially

with the depth of outfielders the system has and his climbing arbitration numbers you’re probably right

by BobZupcic on Feb 25, 2010 12:53 PM EST up reply actions  

If Westy can stay in CF

and develop accordingly, I see Ells being moved.

Manny ain't the only bad man.

by tommy.otm on Feb 25, 2010 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Or Kalish even

But I can’t see Ellsbury leaving before his contract is up unless those two develop as planned and one can stick as a center fielder

by wolf9309 on Feb 25, 2010 7:16 PM EST up reply actions  

I see an Ells-Westy-Kalish outfield as a possibility.

I don’t know too much about Kalish though.

If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.

by TheLoneDavid on Feb 27, 2010 6:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I've got a lot of faith in Kalish being really good.

He’s already got advanced plate discipline. Last year he improved his power by miles, either because of finally finishing with a 2007 wrist injury, or because of a change in swing that helped him put loft on the ball. And given his time in center, he would likely be a very good right fielder range wise.

Really, I don’t see a big place for Ellsbury on this team long-term, if our outfield prospects pan out. He’s a Boras client, not a “left field” bat, doesn’t have the arm to put his range to better use in right field, etc.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Feb 27, 2010 7:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I know a Westy-Lin-Kalish outfield wouldn't upset me

I also don’t see Ells here after a few more years.

DFA Beckett

by South Coast Ghost on Feb 27, 2010 8:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Ellsbury is only 26

His OBP will improve steadily. We already know he is no defensive liability and he has great base-running instincts.

I see him staying.

by Push on Feb 28, 2010 2:51 AM EST up reply actions  

It's gonna be the money that does it, IMO.

I just don’t see him improving enough to make him a guy they really NEED to keep over either Fuentes or Lin, at least one of which I expect to pan out at the major leagues. He’ll be in either his 2nd or 3rd arbitration year when one of those guys hits the majors, and the Sox will see that he’s a valuable trade commodity before he hits free agency. Instead of letting him block one of the top prospects in the system if he’s only going to be around for a few years more. It’s why I see Papelbon getting traded after this year is done should Bard pan out.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Feb 28, 2010 3:37 AM EST up reply actions  

+1

I like Ells. But he’ll probably cost more than he’s worth to keep, especially considering the ’Sox will have such cheap options.

by mmmmm on Mar 1, 2010 11:19 AM EST up reply actions  

There is very little expectation that our entire starting lineup will be home-grown. We will sign FA’s and we will make trades for high end talent. Whether we trade the guys or not, it is important that there are enough assets in the minors that we can trade and keep who we want.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Feb 26, 2010 12:41 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree

I think Theo has addressed flexibility very well in that regard – if you look at 2013 he Sox are only committed to 5 players, or 6 if you assume Youk is re-signed-picked up. You figure that the system will probably supply 2-3 starting players types and that leaves plenty of room for FA/Trading, etc.

by BobZupcic on Feb 27, 2010 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

Oops

I let out Bard in the list…

by BobZupcic on Feb 27, 2010 4:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Good stuff, hix

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Feb 25, 2010 3:52 AM EST reply actions  

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