Projecting the 2010 Red Sox Lineup: No. 4
by Randy Booth on Feb 22, 2010 6:05 PM EST
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PrintIt was a tight race, but Victor Martinez is your No. 3 hitter.
Here's how the lineup looks so far:
- Jacoby Ellsbury
- Dustin Pedroia
- Victor Martinez
Who will be No. 4? Answer the poll below.
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Hands down
Gotta be the most productive guy in the lineup. So excited to see what kinda numbers Youk puts up this year.
This is the year
he puts up 30 HR he has come so close and its amazing such an amazing hitter hasn’t had a 30 HR season in his career.
Doesn't seem like much of a debate. Youk is the man.
Now for Number 5…..hmmm……tough one…..
"Hating the New York Yankees is as American as apple pie, unwed mothers and cheating on your income tax." -- Mike Royko
by sox-inda-south on Feb 22, 2010 10:12 PM EST reply actions
For sure
5 is super tough. I got the sentimental choice, Ortiz…and the logical choice… Drew. What makes more sense?
by David Harnden on Feb 22, 2010 10:20 PM EST up reply actions
5th will be tough
this will be a closer vote than for the previous 4 spots.
i was thinking jd based on last years numbers, but according to bill james next years (2010) numbers, they should be closer with ortiz as a solid favorite with slugging.
what does make more sense?
The only reason I would choose Ortiz
Is if where he bats truly makes a difference in his confidence, because Drew can be stellar in the 8 spot as he’s proved. And if the “better shape” and “weight loss” is going to help Papi catch up to the fastball this year.
by David Harnden on Feb 22, 2010 11:30 PM EST up reply actions
it may but only if he leaves his close on
David Ortiz showed off his leaner physique today at spring training camp in Fort Myers. He quipped to reporters: "you should see me naked".
naked sunning
naked volleyball
naked swimming
but naked baseball?
I wouldn't mind seeing Papi
participate in naked curling for the dominican team.
by David Harnden on Feb 23, 2010 5:30 PM EST up reply actions
Reminds me
Of those crazy soccer fans running across the field. I’d be shocked, but I think I might also fall over laughing seeing a naked Ortiz running around the diamond while his trademark grin.
Why is Ortiz the sentimental choice?
Ortiz is almost certainly a better fit statistically for the #5 spot.
How so?
OBP should always go ahead of slugging.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 23, 2010 1:03 AM EST up reply actions
Im not at all confident Drew will have a higher OBP than Ortiz
If he does, I wouldnt expect a split of more than maybe 10 points. So, the OBP should be a draw in my mind (and in most major projection systems) and Ortiz is the better all around hitter. I’ll take 50+ points of SLG over ~10 point of OBP. I think the ratio is typically 10 points of OBP ~= 30 points of SLG
Perhaps I’m more optimistic about Ortiz than most, but the major projections systems seem to agree with me.
Not at all confident?
What kind of stats do you reasonably expect Ortiz to have? Even 2nd-half Ortiz and 2008 Ortiz are significantly worse than Drew. And re: slugging to OBP conversion, I’m talking about lineup positioning here. A very high OBP guy should be slotted before a very high SLG type because slugging is mostly useful in driving runners in. Better to have more guys on.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 23, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Just Wondering Between the Two...
Might be a silly way to compare, but between Drew and Ortiz, what are their OBP and SLG? Particularly in the 5th spot.
I can see how having V-Mart and Youk in the 3-4 spots would help to drive in guys Ells and Pedroia (and even those slotted at 8-9 if they’re on also), but wouldn’t you want somebody to continue driving runners in at number 5?
Certainly, but since Ortiz's decline
2008:
J.D. Drew – .280/.408/.519
David Ortiz – .264/.369/.507
2009:
J.D. Drew – .279/.392/.522
David Ortiz – .238/.332/.462 (.258/.350/.516 post-ASB)
You do want someone to drive the 3 & 4 hitters in, which is why you don’t slap a guy like Chone Figgins at #5. But Drew has hit for power while also getting on, and so he should go first, as he’s less likely to make an out.
Honestly, I think Drew should have gone 3rd. He’s our 2nd best hitter by all measures. Martinez should go 5th where his high batting average would serve to knock in leftovers from the top 4, and then Ortiz could bat 6th as a sort of “cleanup” guy. He’s about as likely to get on base as any remaining player in the lineup. The difference is that when he does, he would be more likely to waste no baserunners, as it were.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 23, 2010 7:08 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you
The projections for Drew don’t look so good, but I think they are way off too.
For their careers...
Drew – .392 OBP
Ortiz – .377 OBP
Last year Drew (.392) was light years better then Ortiz (.332) as far as OBP. I’m with Ben on this one, OBP is more critical for the number five hitter then slugging is. Oh and btw, slugging % for last year – Drew (.522) Ortiz (.462)
Why buy the cow, when you get the sex for free?
by return2greatness on Feb 23, 2010 7:11 PM EST up reply actions
Marco Scutaro got 3 votes?
Now that’s awesome!
by bucknersrevenge on Feb 22, 2010 11:54 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Heh.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by CasanovaWong on Feb 23, 2010 12:44 AM EST up reply actions
Randy is kinda inlfuencing the results
with using the supposed winner as the photo for these posts. ;)
by German Red Sox Fan on Feb 23, 2010 7:36 AM EST reply actions
Youk's Career Splits
Ranked by OPS
1. Batting 6th – (277 PAs) 0.983
2. Batting 4th – (651 PAs) 0.975
3. Batting 3rd – (348 PAs) 0.936
4. Batting 2nd – (469 PAs) 0.889
Most definitely
You’ll see those cleanup spot numbers rise this season. Can’t wait.
by David Harnden on Feb 23, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
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