Projecting The 2010 Red Sox Lineup: Two-Hole
by Randy Booth on Feb 16, 2010 8:42 PM EST
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PrintChoosing who the Red Sox leadoff hitter will be in 2010 wasn't a very close vote.
According to OTM users, Jacoby Ellsbury should be the leadoff hitter this season. Ellsbury earned 670 votes, or 82 percent. Marco Scutaro (52 votes) came in second, J.D. Drew (49) third and Dustin Pedroia finished last (45).
Now we move on to the two-spot in the lineup. This has traditionally been Dustin Pedroia's slot in the lineup, but there are a few other that could potentially slide in there. J.D. Drew has seen time there, while Kevin Youkilis batted there before his power really caught off. Marco Scutaro could even bat second at some point this season.
Now the poll: who should bat second, behind Jacoby Ellsbury, for the 2010 Red Sox?
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Gonna sound typical but
how do you move a guy who put up MVP numbers in that spot? Wouldn’t make sense to move Pedey, he’s perfect to move Jacoby along, while batting a high enough average and drawing enough walks to set up (SPOILER ALERT!!!!) V-Mart in the 3 spot.
how does this work?
i voted for pedroia leading off. does that mean the pedroia vote didn’t count and i can vote for pedroia again? and can i vote for jacoby at another spot? or is jacoby set at lead off and therefore off of the remaining batting positions?
This is Randy's thing, but
I’d expect Jacoby is set, as the majority has spoken, and I’m certain you can vote for Petey again.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 17, 2010 11:03 PM EST up reply actions
Perfect spot for him
High AVG and OBP, incredible bat control. Pesky SOB who sees a lot of pitches…
Hell, he’s the perfect guy even in the old school sense – with speedy Ellsbury in front of him and his bat control its amazing we don’t hit and run more…
Duh
Answer is the same as who should lead-off… J.D. Drew.
Incidentally, the ideal lineup goes something like this:
Drew
Drew
Drew
Drew
Drew
Drew
Drew
Youk
We have lingered in the chambers of the sea /
By sea-girls wreathed with seaweed red and brown /
Till human voices wake us, and we drown.
What does Drew do if Drew gets on-base?
Unless Theo’s engaged in some unsanctioned cloning experiments, that is. (Then: do all the Drews share the contract?)
Besides, Tito would have to put up with Pedroia yapping and whining about not hitting every single inning.
hah
nice
Homer: Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.
by DougieWentDeep on Feb 17, 2010 10:18 AM EST up reply actions
A walk is just fine
when the bases are loaded with Drews …
:-D
Easy choice, of course
But what’s the three spot going to look like? That should be interesting…
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Agreed
I think I am going to vote VMart but if Papi has a great spring and looks like the 2nd half season Papi, I would want him to hit 3rd
It would be so nice to have good Papi back.
I don’t see it happening, but you never know.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 17, 2010 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
I don't see it either
which is why I am voting VMart for 3rd but I can still hope.
Ortiz was successful
without the pressure of batting 3rd. I’ve heard he’s in great shape (for him) and has lost some weight to hopefully get some bat speed back. I’d still put him 5th or 6th on Opening Day until he proves he can bat above his playing weight. I love the guy but he’s got a LOT to prove, unfortunately.
I’ve heard he’s in great shape (for him) and has lost some weight to hopefully get some bat speed back.
Wasnt that the report last year too? lol
Hey - after June 1 - he was all that.
What the heck happened to him those first two months is one of the great mysteries we may never figure out!
The quick answer of “He got old!” doesn’t account for June-Sept. Did he get young?
Lets hope he’s still young!
I dunno, but there's a disturbing trend of Ortiz having really long slumps to start the season now.
2008 was bad. 2009 was worse. 2010 could last for even longer.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 18, 2010 1:33 AM EST up reply actions
No it can't.
They’ve made it very clear he has a short leash this time… They wont give him a chance to suck for that long.
Reminds me of another Big 1B/DH type
who also batted lefty and also broken down around age 33/34….Maybe these guys just aren’t “athletes” and have a shorter shelf-life
Batting lineup
1) Ellsbury
2) Pedroia
3) V.Mart
4) Youk
5) Beltre
6) Papi
7) Cameron
8) Drew
9) Scutaro
J.D Drew’s numbers are slipping and he is getting old, should worry about defense.
Beltre might be good in place of big papi if big papi does bad.
Put Youk or V.Mart in the 4 hole. Either one would be good there.
Drew's number are slipping?
you’d better tell that to his numbers… last year was one of the better years of his career, offensively and defensively.
+1
I think Drew should be 5, 6, or 7…..8 is way too low. I think he will be 5th if Papi isnt hitting good.
Ells
Pedroia
Youk
Vmart
Drew
Beltre
Ortiz
Cameron
Scutaro
no no no - 5, 6, 7 AND 8
That way we can get Drew …. ~2000 PAs for the season …
For me
1) Ellsbury LH
2) Pedroia RH
3) Youkilis RH
4) Ortiz LH
5) VMart Switch
6) Beltre RH
7) Drew LH
8) Cameron RH
9) Scutaro RH
I think even a dimished Ortiz is an excellent 4 hole hitter. VMart’s bat is a concern for me with him catching full time. I dont want to put too much focus on the guy. If he’s raking, you slide him up to #3 later in the year and push Youk and Papi down.
Im not sure why Youk doesnt get more play as a #3 hitter. He’s an excellent fit there IMO. Good AVG, HIGH OBP, Power. He’s basically our best all around hitter and that’s who you want there. Beltre and Drew are fairly interchangeable, but Beltre’s power is a better fit for the #6. That’s where he would be most useful and it breaks up the three RHs in a row by sliding Drew to #7, where Francona seems to like him.
I'd swap VMart, Ortiz and Youk
VMart – 3, Youk – 4, Ortiz – 5
and you’ve got almost an entire lineup of L-R-L-R, etc with the exception of 8/9
I like that
but I also would like
1) Ellsbury LH
2) Pedroia RH
3) VMart Switch
4) Youkilis RH
5) Ortiz LH
6) Beltre RH
7) Drew LH
8) Cameron RH
9) Scutaro RH
If Ortiz comes back really strong, then I’d consider swapping him with VMart and giving him his #3 slot back.
If he struggles, I swap him with Drew.
My rationale for VMart that low is...
#1 – I think you’re all overrating VMart.
Which player (based entirely on CHONE predicted OBP/SLG slash stats) should hit 3rd?
a) .369/.479 30 HRs
b) .366/.450 17 HRs
c) .384/.473 23 HRs
Who is the worst hitter of those three?
(player b is VMart, a is Papi, c is Youk)
He hit third last year b/c we needed someone who was hitting well up top as a burst of energy – and putting him there was the least disruptive way to get his bat in the lineup, which Francona values. He did well… but Im not sure he’s an ideal 3 hole hitter for this team.
#2 - VMart now has the pressure of catching full time. I dont want to throw him entirely in the fire right away by adding the pressure of hitting 3rd. 5th seems a better fit for him. Again, our best hitter overall is Kevin Youkilis and he should be in the 3 spot IMO.
VMart is a great hitter
…for a catcher.
He should not be confused with the best hitter on this team.
Projecting V-Mart to have a .816 OPS is pretty pessimistic
Seems like typical CHONE destroying a guy for having any fewer than 10 years of greatness in his history and one questionable year.
Putting Papi at .870 is about as questionable.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 18, 2010 10:55 AM EST up reply actions
We could do the same exercise, but with ZiPS
a) .369/.470
b) .384/.491
c) .366/.507
a- Vmart, b- Youk, c- Ortiz
VMart is a very good hitter but isnt quite the hitter people around here think he is.
I think perhaps people should look at VMart's career.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martivi01.shtml
Time to curb your enthusiasm, people. He’s great… but not that great. Lots of reasons to think he ends up our 3rd or 4th best hitter when all is said and done.
As a hitter profile these days (as a 31 year old), VMart is actually kind of similar to Pedroia with slightly more power.
This could all be taken as a further argument why we should not consider re-signing the guy if he can’t be a full time (or most of the time) catcher going forward. He projects as a pretty mediocre 1B.
I have no misconceptions about Martinez' numbers.
He’s a .850 OPS guy, for the most part. But he’s moving to a hitter-friendly park, and Pedroia with more power is a good thing.
As for re-signing, so long as he’s a 40-game catcher with his usual .850 OPS, he would be worth a $13 million contract or so. Most likely, though, he’d catch well over that for at least 2 years if not all 3 or 4 years of a contract.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 18, 2010 11:36 AM EST up reply actions
One Papi moving down to 7th
Won’t happen, IMO.
If he’s doing well, obviously it wont happen b/c his bat will demand a higher spot.
If he’s doing poorly enough to be considered that low, we’ll probably just cut ties or demote him to the bench. Theo has made it very clear Ortiz doesnt get a ton of rope this year. We demand a very high offensive threshold from our DH (which is why Lowell isn’t plan B, either).
wolf9309 on J.D Drew Slip
Look man, i dont know what you are looking at but last year wasnt one of J.D. Drew’s better years. Defense wise he is great . I think beltre would do a lot better then drew this year and drew is injury prone, so give him less at bats. Either way the sox lineup is better then people think. Cameron can hit Hr, Drew can, Beltre can, almost everyone in the lineup can hit them. To me the sox are going to be a lot better defensive team.
sure it was
he posted his 3rd highest home run total (highest since 2004)
his OPS was his 5th highest in a season playing over 100 games, and I believe from July onwards he posted the highest OPS of an AL outfielder)
he really had a great offensive year, and the only stat which shows any possible decline to me is he had a few more k’s than last year. With otherwise completely steady, solid offense, I don’t see any indication he’s declining.
V-Mart
You guys dont get it, V-Mart will be one of our best hitters. He is not in cleveland anymore. He will hit more Hr, plus he is a switch hitter. You watch, i bet you he hits .330 this coming year with 35 HR’s.
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