Projecting The 2010 Red Sox Lineup: Leadoff
by Randy Booth on Feb 15, 2010 6:02 PM EST
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PrintThere aren't many roster spots free for players in Red Sox camp this spring that may want to make Boston home instead of Pawtucket, but there is still some flexibility within the roster: the lineup.
Last year the OTM community voted on the lineup, spot by spot, producing this quality order. The funny thing is, though, that it all spurred over the debate about who should bat leadoff for the Red Sox. At the time, it was either Jacoby Ellsbury or J.D. Drew. Ellsbury won the poll, but there was a lot of hope for Drew taking that spot. That failed.
Now we do it again. And yes, J.D. Drew is an option in the poll for leadoff hitter. I will only put realistic choices in the poll, meaning that David Ortiz is not an option to lead things off. I'm not sure of the voting timetable yet, but I guess we'll see how things go. (And no matter how obvious an answer may be, we're voting. That's how we do things in my neck o' the woods.)
Question No. 1: who should bat leadoff for the Red Sox in 2010?
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Hah, way to content block me.
Anyways, Ellsbury gets the nod now. He did bring his OBP up plenty, and his plate approach got better as the year went on. Hope he does even more of that come April.
USG
We somehow did that again. I apologize.
I posted it and then I scroll down and OF COURSE your story wasn’t there before I started mine. But you probably scheduled to publish, right? Ugh, I swear it’s the last time that will happen … but not really.
SB Nation's Boston Red Sox community:
OverTheMonster.com
Follow Randy on Twitter: @RCBooth
Haha, yeah.
Anyways, re-scheduled for tomorrow. We need to spread this stuff out till we start getting good ST stuff.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 15, 2010 6:20 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with Ells improving and deserving the chance to lead off
I enjoy watching Drew bat no matter where he is in the lineup
Homer: Kids, you tried your best and you failed miserably. The lesson is, never try.
by DougieWentDeep on Feb 15, 2010 8:10 PM EST up reply actions
I know he does not want to do it...
But I shall always rather have Pedroia bat lead-off. If Ells continues to improve at the plate? Then I dunno.
pedroia is very good choice but.......
he’s much better at moving the runners and getting rbi’s then ells.
pedroia would be a very good choice for 1st, 2nd or 3rd in the b order.
however, ells would be wasted if not leading off. batting 9th is not a good substitute.
the biggest dig against ells is his bb rate and his plate discipline: real or perceived. but while batting lead with a reputation of low hr ability, pitchers are going to challenge him before walking him (maybe ortiz should leadoff. that will keep the pitchers honest).
ells biggest asset is his speed relative to getting to 2nd base and then scoring on a hit.
i like that.
let ells & pedroia set the table and jd serve the goulash. (i have no idea what that means, but hey, what the whatever)
I agree
i think Pedroia might be the best 2 hole hitter in the entire MLB. In 2008 he had the highest avg with a 2 strike count in the entire MLB (dont know about last year to lazy…). He gives Ells the opportunities to steal cause he doesnt mind hitting with 2 strikes. They form a great 1-2 together even if SBs might be overrated.
JD and Pedroia both struggled when batting lead off, it might just be small sample size, but both also stated they dont feel comfortable batting lead off. They have proven to be very valuable in other slots.
If Ells struggles with OBP and Scutaro can repeat his last year numbers in that department let him take over.
by German Red Sox Fan on Feb 15, 2010 8:43 PM EST up reply actions
They're more than perceived.
Jacoby swung at fewer pitches outside the zone than:
Lowell
Varitek
The Shortstop gang
Which puts him in the upper echelon of bad discipline on the team.
The biggest problem, though, is that Jacoby made contact with something like 95% of the pitches he swings at outside the zone. The results? Weak contact and outs. This is compared to Pedroia and Youkilis, who excel at fighting off close pitches but not putting them in play on a 2-strike count. Ells is just pure contact all the way.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 15, 2010 8:48 PM EST up reply actions
Ells
Is a solid leadoff guy. As long as he bats around .300 again, and draws about 20 more walks this season, he’ll be our guy. How do you argue with someone in scoring position that quick into a game/inning? SET THAT TABLE JACOBY!!!!
Damn Right
OBP is the most important part of leadoff and we all know who is better at that.
Yes, but Drew can fit elsewhere well too.
If we’re gonna go by OBP alone, Youk should lead off. But since he and Drew are better suited to a middle-of-the-order role, we turn to Jacoby, who is the only guy who’s even been consistently average at leading off these last two years.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 15, 2010 10:12 PM EST up reply actions
Then why did we start with the leadoff
We should start with #3, #4, #5 before we go down the line.
Because this also isn't "Choose the best hitter"
This is choose the leadoff hitter. If someone’s skills are more suited to a middle-of-the-order hitter, they are wasted in the leadoff position.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 15, 2010 10:30 PM EST up reply actions
Actually
They are “wasted” for exactly one at bat per game…..take away the leadoff at bat and the lead-off hitter has no more than an equal chance of leading off as do the other folks in a lineup…
But the #3, #4, and #5 bat behind positions which are traditionally high in OBP.
Thus, there are likely to be more men on for their big hits to score. Whereas the #1’s ability to score a man from first would be wasted without a man on first.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 15, 2010 10:40 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with what you are saying
but from just looking at the list and the question being who would be the best leadoff hitter. I would say Drew.
That being said I am glad that it looks like Jacoby will win the vote because I am hoping for Drew in the 5 spot.
"actually", i think the leading off number of the lead off hitter is significant
while not looking at the opportunity the # 9 hitter presents itself for the #1 hitter to lead off following any #9 at bat (too complex for me).
i divided 8 innings (or 7 can be used in a sox home win that doesn’t go into ot) in a game by 9 batters with equal potential of leading off any random inning, therefore, every player has an even 89% of leading off an inning. but because baseball is 9 innings, only the #1 gets the guarantee to lead off an inning. so 1+.89 equals double the chance of leading off in any given 9 inning game. i’m guessing that in the course of a season, the sox want the right guy.
does that sound reasonable because i’m really buzzed?
It's true, but it doesn't bolster the case for Taco as leadoff
His numbers are better when he doesn’t lead off:
.278 .320 .383 .702 1st AB of game
.275 .314 .406 .720 1st in inning
.297 .350 .414 .764 All PAs
JD Drew:
.339 .438 .548 .987 1st AB of game
.288 .383 .504 .886 1st in inning
.276 .390 .485 .875 All PAs w/BOS
So this suggests a 1-2 punch of Drew-Ellsbury at the top of the order might not be so bad—except Drew somehow seems to struggle from the leadoff position, in a way he does not anywhere else in the lineup:
.233 .340 .396 .736 As #1 hitter
Given his All-Star numbers as the first hitter of the game, that means he really stinks up the joint on later go-rounds through the lineup.
but
Pedroia is an excellent fastball hitter, so having Ells leadoff gets one of the best fastball hitters more fastballs. That cant be overstated!!!! Then add in the fact of having Ells on 1st with one of the best doubles hitters in the league. Does Drew score from 1st on a double, yeah sometimes but not as much as Ells. Is Drew going to get Pedroia more fastballs to look at, NOPE not really.
Sometimes you guys got to remember not everything is stats no matter how many new stats there are now a days.
I think those aren't that important
Look, Ells will probably hit lead-off (even though I’d like to see him improve his OBP, which was only .347 as a lead-off hitter).
As to whether or not a hitter will see more fastballs, most pitches are fastballs. If Ells doesn’t get on base at a good rate, your point is moot since Pedroia will be up with one-out and the bases empty. Also, scoring from first on a double is only important if there are two outs. In most cases, a runner will be held at third with no one out (which seems to be your scenario: Ells gets on and Dusty doubles). Remember, LF is very close at Fenway. So it’s very hard to score from first on a ball hit to LF, where almost all of Pedroia’s extra-base power is.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Feb 16, 2010 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
well i would like
for Ellsbury’s OBP to go up too not matter where he hits. His offensive potential is all on the bases because of his speed. And I dont think it can be understated when Ellsbury is on first how that affects a pitcher. They have to look over, throw over, and yes they will throw more fastballs. Especially cuz nobody wants Ellsbury on second with Pedroia, Youk, or VMArt coming up. He can score on a single that most players (including Drew) would not be able to.
OBP is the most important thing for a leadoff hitter but its not the only thing. Ellsbury is going to be with the SOX for awhile, lets keep him in the position we need him to be in the future. If he doesnt improve trade him, cuz he is only worth keeping if he is turns into a top notch lead off hitter.
Plus he has shown improvement.
6 less K’s with 70 more AB’s
OBP went up 19 points
avg went up 21 points
SLG went up 21 points
The potential and some improvement already is too much to take him out of that position in the lineup. Now if he can just draw 20 more walks this year he will be great. Maybe he will finally reach that 100+ run plateau.
I don't get too excited about batting orders
The one thing that is worth noting: a team’s lead-off hitter will have the most PA.
I’m not sure speed disrupts pitching. Also, good pitchers tend to keep runners off the bases. I’m also not sure it’s that important to have speed at the top of the order. In many ways, I’d rather have speed near the bottom of the order, where you’re trying to “steal” runs. Most teams have their best hitters 1-5. For a lead-off hitter, getting on-base is way more important than speed. Pedroia is much slower than Ells. Yet Pedroia scored runs at a better rate (even when you exclude HR) because he got on-base at a higher rate.
Ellsbury did improve offensively. He may get better. However, until his OBP improves, I don’t see him as an ideal lead-off hitter. I’m also not sure how long Ells will be in Boston. The Sox’ system is stocked with OF, and Ells has Boras for an agent.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Feb 16, 2010 1:03 PM EST up reply actions
I would challenge
anyone to try and pitch when a fast runner is on base. Have him steal 2nd and maybe 3rd on you because you are throwing changes or curves and then ask yourself the next time he is on first if you are not thinking about him at all. Of course speed disrupts a lot of pitchers its not like they are just ignoring him when he is on base.
Well ... Red Sox pitchers pretty much do (ignore the runners).
Its pretty clear the current coaching regime tells them to do their best to just ignore the runner. They do almost nothing to try to hold them.
The priority is to get the batter out.
You could, of course, argue that telling themselves to ignore the runner and actually ignoring him are two different things … :-D
well thats the Red Sox pitchers
and I dont believe the Red Sox play against themselves at all this year. And didnt somebody steal 6 bases in a game against them last year? Im sure that doesnt change anything up at all for the pitchers.
Ya - I just thought I'd remind y'all of the exception to conventional wisdom
is the team that we all root for …
Personally, I agree that that HAS to bug a pitcher at least a little.
But it might bug some pitchers more (as in ‘reduce their effectiveness’) to pitch out of the stretch or to change their pitch selection to accommodate the runner. I’m sure the stat-minded RS staff didn’t adopt this philosophy without thinking about it a little bit.
I'm not sure they ignore the runner...
There’s plenty of pick-off attempts. It’s just that you’d need to develop a time machine in order to have our catchers actually throw out baserunners, so maybe its discretion rather than apathy…
Rock me, sexy Jesus...
by nuthinboutnuthin on Feb 16, 2010 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
I'd need to see evidence before I believe that speed upsets pitchers
I’ve also heard about hitters who don’t like hitting behind base-stealers because the running game distracts them. The need for speed at the top of the order is an old baseball adage. I’m not sure it helps all that much. Generally, the effect of stolen bases is overrated and most conventional baseball wisdom doesn’t hold up to close scrutiny.
I’m also not sure the Ellsbury’s baserunning helped Pedroia all that much last year. Despite Ellsbury’s improvement, almost all of Dusty’s numbers were down somewhat last year, except his BB%. On the face of it, the increased BB-rate appears to belie the idea that Pedroia will see more fastballs (unless, of course, Ells magic feet made pitchers miss the strike zone).
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Feb 16, 2010 2:22 PM EST up reply actions
pedroia's stats
went down cuz you are comparing them to a MVP season. Lets be a little realistic here, I sure hope you didnt actually think Pedroia was going to duplicate that season. Increased BB% was also an affect of the MVP season as they were about to pitch fastballs for strikes and test him as much.
The old adage comes back into play. The stats that state that SB are overrated probably come from the steroid era. Of course during that era it wasnt all that important, there were 20 guys hitting 50+ homers. There were second basemen hitting 40+ homers. But to say SB’s dont win you games then I refer to Dave Roberts SB in the ALCS. Also then why is every (just about) leadoff guy has the ability to steal bases.
Can you honestly say that Rickey Henderson had no affect on the games and that he didnt win any from stealing bases?
Im willing to bet that the Sox won the majority of their games in which Ellsbury stole more than one base.
The worth of a stolen base has been derived empirically.
It’s worth .19 runs. This is because we know how many runs a team scores after it has a man on second vs. a man on first. Obviously, having someone who is able to steal a base in a late-game situation gains some extra value, but that’s more in favor of a pinch-runner on the bench than stacking the lineup with SB threats in favor of OBP.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 16, 2010 5:02 PM EST up reply actions
Also, Pedroia's numbers were even more down than you would expect.
That .569 OPS month is a big outlier, even accepting that a player will slump at times. I expect Petey will be closer to a .850 OPS this year.
By the way, you’re right about the Sox’ record with Ellsbury stealing, but consider that:
A) He also GOT ON BASE more often in those games and
B) They lost the 2 closest of those games last year. They never won by as few SBs as Ells had (IE: 10-6 when Ells steals 3, 4-0 when Ells steals 2)
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 16, 2010 5:09 PM EST up reply actions
ok but did those SB's set the pace
Did he do them in the first inning and they scored 3 runs in that inning? Did they score in the innings that he stole a base? I dont see the Sox having him steal bases, risking injury, when they are up by 4 runs.
But did it end up being the winning run?
Unless you’re claiming he demoralized the opposition or something (which is a pretty thin case if you ask me). I don’t buy that SBs are this big psychological weapon. The only time they are very useful is in late-game situations, in which case I redirect you to the pinch-runner argument.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 16, 2010 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
"old baseball adage" - excellent point
kind of tricky not getting caught up in paradigms.
i agree with the lack of importance in the batting order except for the 1st inning.
my old adage stuff thinks that a starting picture is most vulnerable in the 1st inning and in his last inning pitched. no proof, no facts, all guess based on “feel”.
the baseball wisdom of the new baseball wizards don’t think stolen bases are that big of a deal. can’t argue with them, but, what the what – i will for fun: a lead off hitter getting on and stealing 2nd without any outs, is the equivalent of a lead off double. this eliminates the dp, while increasing the abilty of the #2 hitter getting walked or a soccer ball to hit. plus, it probably will move somebody on the defense. whether or not this amounts to something, who knows? ask the wizards.
who is the all time best lead off guy? i’m guessing ricky henderson, who probably had numbers like ortiz except for the base running/stealing thing. (papi may have done better but he wasn’t given the green light).
who’s the best #1 all time for the sox? rooster & remdog dogged and ran a fowl on the opposition. they were effective of setting the table.
totally different qualities than hendersons.
Batting order is important in my opinion.
It’s just that people look at it wrong. It has to be about playing to your strengths. Speed isn’t nearly as important as OBP at the top of the lineup. A low average/SLG, high-OBP type is much more acceptable at the top of the lineup than the middle because they’re less likely to have men on base for their (big) hits to matter. Power goes behind the OBP guys where they can make their limited hits count the most and more often. And the guys with both go in the middle.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 16, 2010 5:12 PM EST up reply actions
batting order is important
you have described the classic batting order theory. i generally agree with that strategy, but after the first inning, there is a certain amount of randomness and who’s “hot” or who gets hot right then, statistics be damned.
however, the lineup in the first inning probably should be your statistically best lineup for run production, on the average.
the national league has other factors based on pitchers batting, more pitch hitters, etc.
i like speed but i’m voting for dustin for lead off. he reminds me of rick burrelson.
I'm not sure I'd call what I have evidence
But I just checked some Runs Allowed numbers of Bill James’. My method was hardly scientific—I just randomly selected a bunch of pitchers and compared how often a runner scored after hitting a double vs. how often one scored after stealing a base—and almost across the board the numbers favored those who got on via a double. There were a few outliers, but I would say maybe 20-5 the pitchers allowed those who doubled to score more often than those who stole.
Of interest is that Red Sox pitchers (except for Brad Penny) seemed to be great models of this, and that they were rarely hurt by a base stealer. Seems like they might have the right idea to focus on the batter.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 18, 2010 1:32 AM EST up reply actions
Something to think about
When Drew bats leadoff, he really doesn’t like it. Courtesy Baseball Reference:
Drew as leadoff: .233 BA/.340 OBP/.736 OPS
Drew in Boston: .276/.390/.875
Ellsbury as leadoff: .286/.337/.725
So to some extent, having Drew in leadoff doesn’t help, because his discomfort with the position appears to be psychological.
as a Yankee fan
the lineup tht is the scariest to face in my opinion would be:
1. Ellsbury / L (cant deny the way he changes the game when on base)
2. Pedroia / R (perfect spot for this pesky little guy)
3. Youkilis / R (best hitter on team)
4. Martinez / S (probaly the most consistent RBI guy on team)
5. Ortiz / L (can still scary especially if he guesses right)
6. Beltre / R (needs to stay healthy)
7. Drew / L (needs to stay healthy)
8. Cameron / R
9. Scutaro / R
Between order slots 5-7, they are pretty interchangable depending on who’s hot or cold at the time. As far 1-4 and 8-9 I think there really isn’t much to change. If Ortiz can play like he did in the second half then I like him in the 5 hole. Definitely a solid lineup with great defense and possiblity to have the best rotation in baseball. Should be a great year for us batttling each other. Good luck guys, cant wait for BASEBALL
1. Ellsbury / L (cant deny the way he changes the game when on base)
Apparently you can deny it. Just about everybody on here thinks stealing bases has no effect on the game at all.
I see our lineup being like that. It looks pretty scary to me just as long as everyone stays healthy.
then they dont watch enough baseball,
stolen bases do change the way the game is played. It changes defense postioning which could lead to hits through the holes, what pitches the catcher will call for. If your catcher has a weak arm and the pitchers strenght is changing speeds, the batter will see more fastballs. And thats not even looking into more runs because of more guys in scoring postion. It may not seem important over a couple games but look at the season at a whole and it makes a big difference. Out of all teams you guys should know what a stolen base can do, you can thank a single stolen base for one of the big reasons Boston won a world series in 2004
yes
and nobody in his right mind would start Dave Roberts as an everyday leadoff hitter because he is fast. Why? He does not get on base enough. Pinch running in a situation spot can change a game, a series, a year, but that is a totally different point than who will help your team score the most aggregate runs as a leadoff hitter during the year.
my reasoning was,
that Ellsbury seems to be a pesky hitter (slap hitter) with a 300avg, great speed and would help the 2-4 hitter see more pitches. I totally understand your belief in OBP as the most important leadoff quality, and I agree to a point. I feel that over a course of a year the fact that a slower Drew would have problems scoring from first and second on hard hit singles. I feel they would even out because Ellsbury would put himself in a better situation to score, brake up double plays and open more holes for Pedroia and Youk. Also, Id rather have Ellsbury ahead of Ortiz becuase of the shift
Drew
actually runs well. While he no longer steals and was never a big SB threat (career high of 19) he is a probably the best baserunner on the team. He has above average speed, anticipates very well and is quick on the basepaths. He is no Ellsbury when it comes to pure speed, but his above average speed, superior baserunning skill and career 392 OBP make him a better choice. I should say in the grand scheme of things it is not that big a deal.
Drew is an excellent
and underrated baserunner. But doesnt he also help the 7,8,9 hitters. Also dont you want a hitter like Drew batting behind your hitters that tend to get IBB like Youk and VMart will.
Actually, I want him batting in front.
If he gets on via the walk, as he has a tendency to do, then an IBB will move up Drew as well. I think Drew would be a great #2 to Pedroia’s #1…If Pedroia could hit first.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 16, 2010 6:21 PM EST up reply actions
I agree with you
Speed is a great asset and helps the team tremendously. The question is, is speed better to have at the top of the lineup or around the 6 spot. Do you want your 2,3, and 4 hitters to get fastballs and better looks or your 7,8, and 9 hitters to get them?
There are arguments for both sides that are very valid so I like to assume it is a wash. That leaves OBP being the most important part of the leadoff batter.
another point,
you made me realize this with your statement, I gets really slow at the point of the order with Ortiz, Betlre, Drew. So I could see why you would want the weaker hitters at the bottom of the order to get more fastballs. Good thinking on your part, Did Ellsbury bat in the 6-8 slots at all last year?
i would want my 2,3,4 hitters to get more fastballs
because they would obviously do more with it.
I watch a ton of baseball and I have never seen a base-stealing threat change defensive positioning
(1) When a runner is on first with less than two outs middle IF cheat toward second for the DP, regardless of the speed of the runner on first. In fact, it’s the speed of the hitter that’s more important in that situation.
(2) Teams that over-shift for lefty pull hitters will modify their shift with a runner of even average speed on second base.
(3) Fast runners on third in close, late-game situations might alter the way the OF or IF plays. But that has to with the score and, again, depends on who is hitting—and has nothing to do with stolen bases.
As for how the pitcher deals with a base-stealing threat, I have not seen anything that leads me to believe that pitchers alter what they throw. They alter their cadence and their rhythm, but the pitcher’s main focus is always the hitter. Few base-runners are going to steal second, third, and home in the same inning. There’s very little difference in terms of scoring odds between a runner on first with no outs and a runner on second with one out.
There is no evidence that teams that steal lots of bases score lots of runs. If anything, it’s the reverse: they often run themselves out of big innings. Top scoring teams have good on-base numbers.
As for 2004, that’s one play—by a pinch-runner. Roberts only job there was to steal the base (again, game situation). Thankfully, Joe Torre was asleep in the MFY dugout. Any manager with a brain pitches out in that situation.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Feb 16, 2010 5:56 PM EST up reply actions
Good base runners do effect positioning.
Most middle infielders cheat a step or two closer to second with a fast and successful base stealer on 1st. Not so much with 3b with a thief on second. Essentially a steal is a non contact hit and run, if the batter does make contact the holes between 1st and 2nd as well as ss and 3rd are usually just a bit bigger making a ground ball single just that much more likely.
Teams rarely shift with a runner on unless there are two outs. Too easy for the runner to grab an extra base. The out is more important than the base with two outs.
In late game situations a runner like Els or Crawford who has already stolen home once bear closer watching and can draw a balk or a rushed pitch = pitch over the head, in the dirt or well wide increasing chances for a walk, wild pitch or even an intentional pass with one out.
With Crawford and the Sox staff, it’s a run.( I often wondered why SB wasn’t divided into on catcher and on pitcher).
You're wrong
A middle IF in position for a double play has a much shorter trip to second base than the runner on first. Why would they cheat more? Even if a 2B or SS was as slow as Mike Lowell (which is unlikely for other reasons) and the runner on first was twice as fast as Ellsbury, the fielder will easily beat the runner to the bag to wait for the throw.
As for balks, there were 70 total balks in the AL last year. That averages to 5 per team (the worst team, Texas, had 8). Over 162 games, that’s pretty insignificant. Also, there’s no correlation between the number of SB a team allowed and the number of balks they committed.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Feb 16, 2010 7:25 PM EST up reply actions
A fact based on Drew's leadoff stats?
If that is such a fact then why is he going to bat leadoff? Also why did he get the most votes to leadoff? How am I suppose to assume that what optimizes the Sox run scoring is a lineup with him not leading off when the experts (Theo, Tito, etc…) are having him leadoff? In your opinion what is the Sox best lineup (the one that optimizes their run scoring)?
There are algorithms
(see The Book) to optimize you lineup’s run scoring ability. It takes into account OBP, stolen bases, the whole ensemble of attributes. Last year the Sox lineup would have been optimized with (I think) Drew leading off and Ellsbury hitting 7th. I doubt things have changed too much.
You can choose to doubt the methodology, but it seems to me pretty sound and a whole lot better than speculating about the effect in pitcher’s minds about SBs (which-by the way, would still happen anywhere that Ellsbury hits in the lineup). It makes sense you want a guy who has the most at bats to also be a guy that gets on base. Ellsbury, especially leading off, is a poor OBP guy-under 350. That does not cut it.
Buzzy,
where would you put Ellsbury though, ninth? I could see him batting ninth this way after the 1st inning the lineup would seem longer
I would prefer
him as the leadoff hitter if he can maintain an OBP of 370 or more. Otherwise I think he would help the team most as a bottom of the order guy that serves the dual purpose of acting as a run stealer and a secondary leadoff guy as the lineup loops.
a second leadoff guy?
Wouldnt that be a guy that had a high OBP? maybe we should put Scutaro batting leadoff, he had an OBP of .379 last year. Actually Youk had a .413 OBP maybe we should put the lineup based on OBP highest to the lowest.
Because I want
my “first” leadoff guy to get more at bats. Youk is the highest OBP guy, but he also is not as good a choice as a leadoff guy because he is marginally better than Drew as an OBP guy, inferior in terms of speed/baserunning and superior in terms of isolated power. This makes him a better choice for a middle of the lineup guy (4th).
As for Scutaro
I doubt he will have a 379 OBP again, but it was that OBP and the # of pitches he saw that made him a great leadoff guy for the Jays last year. I like the idea of Cameron, Ellsbury and Scutaro at the bottom of the lineup-that is decent OBP for the bottom of the order with a fair bit of speed.
here it is
Youk
VMart
Drew
Scutaro
Pedroia
Ellsbury
Cameron
Ortiz
Beltre
That is unlikely
to be optimal. But..I bet that lineup scores more than the Ells at the top one.
and I expect
Ells to score 100+ runs this year. Since he has improved every year, I expect him to improve some more. But I guess Im alone on this one.
I hope
and expect him to improve too, and think he will be a very valuable member of the team. I just don’t want him leading off until he can improve his OBP skills.
+1
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Feb 16, 2010 5:57 PM EST up reply actions
yeah but
Those algorithms are based off of stats the player accumalating batting in a different position in the order. Who is to know if Drew would have just as good, better, or worse OBP being in the leadoff position. Would these algorithms have been able to know that Pedroia was going to be the best cleanup hitter for those 7 games in 08?
It is a good assumption
and in fact Drew has basically shown this to be true as a guy that has been moved to different spots in the lineup.
Except in leadoff.
I don’t know if 75 games is SSS for leadoff, but his stats are noticeably worse there than at any other spot in the lineup.
i think stolen bases are good.
dave roberts comes to mind. r. henderson carried the offense of a defensive minded team.
granted, unless the runner is stealing at about 70% efficiency or extremely timely (roberts) sb’s are suspect. putting a fast guy on 2nd base is better than having any speed guy on 1st base.
the homerun strategy by babe ruth all but eliminated the stolen base strategy.
but a lot of that may have changed since the steroid era – er, excuse me, i meant, the era in which every mlb record was broken, rather smashed to pieces and not just once but several times by different hitters. one important record was broken twice in one season after the record had stood for millions of years. these records were broken by a bunch of old little guys that gained 200 pounds of muscle overnight era.
the “totally coincidental era”. since that era stopped (beginning in 2004 and concluding in 2008) an american leaguer can win the hr crown with 40 taters. but it is just a coincidence. with the reduction in dingers , we may see the comeback of the stolen base. who knows.
just a note: the three records not smashed to bits is that no one, no one, did i mention no one? in either league has won – the triple crown since the 2nd greatest hitter of all time did it (not including willie mays who was drafted by the sox in the 50’s, but not signed). and the .400 ba for a season since the #1 greatest hitter of all time did it. the .400 ba in one year record by wade boggs – look it up – from may 1st to april 30 mid eighties, still stands.
A lot of the value of having speed at the top of your lineup comes from...
the fact that in a typical lineup, the worst hitter (who is on base the least) is batting in the 9 spot. SO of all the spots in the lineup, the leadoff hitter is the one most likely to be batting with no one on base- so there is no one clogging the bases in front of them and it is where the advantages of speed on the basepaths can be most fully realized.
This may be a whole different case with presumably Scutaro batting 9th, with his high OBP and good speed. Ells is still my favorite, his OBP has been increasing very well and when he gets on to start an inning, it almost always ends in something good.
Is this a joke post ;)?
when someone uses the term “clogging the basepaths” I have to wonder if their author status should be revoked! If by your definition the worst hitter = the one who is on base the least, then there is a chance Ellsbury will be in the bottom 2 or 3 on the Sox…
haha i see your point
clogging the basepaths is just the hyperbole cliche term i happened to use. Here’s what I meant by that- not that you don’t want anyone on base when they’re hitting, but that if someone has to be batting frequently with no one on base, it might as well be the fast guy who is hitting a lot but not for a ton of power.
worst hitter is not by definition the one on base the least, but that’s frequently the way it works out. Players that can’t hit well are going to see more strikes, so walk less, and can’t hit well so their average won’t be that high. Not by definition- I mean I’ve been a huuuuge Beltre fan for ages and his OBP is abysmal.
Last year, Captain Corpse, Green, Lowell, and Ortiz all had lower OBPs than Ells, but no, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re worse hitters. Or that Nick Johnson is a better hitter than Youk.
Ellsbury is on the border.
He’s between the good (Pedroia, Youk, Drew, V-Mart) and the bad (Cameron, Beltre, likely Ortiz, we’ll see with Scutaro).
A .355 OBP isn’t bad. It’s above average. The thing people complain about is that he’s leading off, so he should be better. And that’s why it would be ideal to slot Petey in there. But he’s had issues up front.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 16, 2010 5:52 PM EST up reply actions
You are correct
however it would not be shocking given player history if Ells clocked in only ahead of Beltre next year too…
Perhaps not
But at the same time, he could end up close to the Martinez/Pedroia group.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 16, 2010 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
ells is forcasted by james to have a .360 obp next year.
for whatever thats worth.
also as far as seeing about scutaro, that’s true of everyone. james forecasts scutaro obp as .347.
i see scutaro on a lot of spring training projected batting orders with a number 9 in front of his name.
dusty, is forecasted at .378, by james. jd, the highest of the bunch at 385 obp.
i vote for dustin pedroia, because jd may be better served at another spot.
More true of Scutaro.
He had a huge change in his approach at the plate last year. I honestly don’t see him falling below .350, but most people do, so eh.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 16, 2010 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
the question is how deep do these projection really look into every single player?
or are they just weighing some stuff + agewise regression and stuff like this
I’m with you on scutaro everybody will be really surprised about this guy. His number wont drop from last year alot.
by German Red Sox Fan on Feb 17, 2010 1:33 PM EST up reply actions
Drew scored 84 runs last year
Now if he was batting leadoff that would go up, lets say by 20 runs because of better hitters behind him. That gets him to 104 which is 10 (I think) more than Ellsbury. Now if Ellsbury increases his OBP to about .350-.360 its pretty safe to assume he will top this number, hence because of his speed, because even at .360 thats probably 40 points less than Drew.
Stolen Bases are important when leading off
The lead off spot is not only intended to set the the table but also the ‘Tone of the Game. Statisticians fail to take into account the psychology of the game. While a leadoff home run is, not surprisingly, the most damaging, it tends to be the event that leads to the most big innnings… having the lead off man chug into third, in my opinion, is actually worse. The pitcher and the catcher are both disrupted, he is dancing out there right in front of the pitcher’s face and he is only 90 feet from home. The infield is playing in to cut off the run. And almost ball out of infield will be a run scored. Add to that the blown confidence of the pitcher with his stuff that day or in his defense and you have a really great start for your day.
The man most likey to chug into third is Jacoby Elsbury. And if it is a double, he is the most likely to take third during the next At bat which adds another negative for the pitcher to handle.
A stolen base does burn you. It jerks your chain like nothing else because it is always a surprise, even when you are looking for it, It is like nothing else in baseball because it is intentional, the player chooses to do it and dares you to stop him. It rattles you because it was stolen… it shouldn’t have happened, it is an unearned base. The runner dared you, catch me if you can, and you weren’t good enough. It pisses you off, and pissed off pitchers make mistakes, pissed off catchers make bad calls. It knocks you young pitchers and catchers back on their heels, it knocks mediocre batteries out of whack. And gives the offense a strong early advantage.
Ricky Henderson Not Only Could Steal. he had the most leadoff Home Runs. He disrupted the heck out teams for years. He was the A’s and Yank’s sole offense on several occasions.
While Ellsbury doesn’t have nearly the power Henderson did, he is the next best thing, hitting about three hundred and stealing his way into extra bases. Heck, I always thought stolen bases should have been added as slugging percentage.
Els at leadoff is an effective and an affective Weapon.
no
there is just so much wrong with this post. Ells is NOT an effective weapon because he does not get on base enough. He makes an out 11% more frequently than Drew does. That has a massive effect-over a season that is maybe 70 times more that Drew would be on base. No amount of base stealing or base stealing success could compensate for that. Think about it for a second. Denard Span played on a team that score fewer runs than the Sox, only stole 23 bases but scored more runs than Ellsbury. Why? Because he has Drew’s OBP. Hell, Pedroia scored more runs (by alot). Obviously all of that “rattling” didn’t help too much by comparison. Think about it for a second. Ricky was a weapon because he combined awesome speed with freakish OBP skills. However of the 2 skills, the OBP is more important.
now how many
less runs would Ellsbury had scored if he didnt steal 70 bases? Stealing bases makes up some of the OBP woes. Now he has improved in each of his seasons and I think (along with B James) that he’ll improve some more.
No it doesn't
SBs may make up for some of his SLG woes (turning singles and walks into “doubles”).
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Feb 17, 2010 9:10 AM EST up reply actions
and the doubles
put him in a better position to score on a hit. That does sound logical right?
It depends on the situation
You are overrating the value of SBs. It depends on the situation: A runner on first with no one out scores at almost the same rate as a runner on second with one out, etc.
Look, all things being equal, I’d rather have a fast player than a slow player. But I see no evidence that SBs affect the game that much. Getting on-base is the name of the game, and Ells wasn’t great as a lead-off hitter last year. His .347 OBP leading-off was barely adequate. Hopefully, he’ll improve. But, last year, Dustin Pedroia, JD Drew, and Kevin Youkilis—all slower runners—scored runs at a greater rate per PA. Why? Because they got on-base more then Ellsbury did. It’s as simple as that.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Feb 17, 2010 9:54 AM EST up reply actions
A runner on first with no one out scores at almost the same rate as a runner on second with one out, etc.
So I would imagine a runner on second with no outs scores more than a runner on first with no outs.
Im curious how many time did Ellsbury steal 2nd base last year? Which is essentially turning those singles/walks into doubles.
stealing
helped Ellsbury score more runs than he would have if he did not steal. That is true and can be quantified. It can also be quantified that if he got on base 50+ more times and never stole a SINGLE base he would have scored more runs still. That is why Drew, Youkilis and Pedroia score more per plate app than Ells does. Simple, right?
Exactly
SBs are nice. But they’re not the weapon that some here would want us to believe they are.
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Feb 17, 2010 10:31 AM EST up reply actions
so it does make up for
his low OBP. Which he has improved the last 2 years. Yes as of right now Drew gets on base more. But then you are putting a guy that you want to drive the ball in a position to change his mindset. Until Ellsbury goes backwards in his development I dont see the need to move him, because if he keeps improving he will be the best man for the job as stolen bases help him score more runs.
I want Drew to bat 5th where he has the mindset to drive the ball and if they walk him, fine, then he is on base with someone else with the mindset to drive the ball. I think Drew is at his best this way, not with the mindset that he HAS to get on base. This is probably why he doesnt hit as well when he is leading off. The same probably goes with Pedroia too.
Keep the guys with pop in the part of the lineup where they have the best mindset for their skills. Now I know there isnt a sabermetric stat for this theory but I guess sometimes you just have to go with your gut.
There is also a long term goal with Ellsbury too. You want to develop him into a marquee leadoff guy. Yes he absolutely has to get the OBP up to the .370 range to be a marquee guy and he has improved, granted more to do with avg than more walks, but it is an improvement. If he gets an .370 OBP and bats over .300 he will probably score 110+ runs because he can also steal 70+ bases.
Now wouldnt that be ideal?
This whole post is fine except for the subject line
It doesn’t make up for a low OBP at all. That’s what the last 8 comments were saying.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 17, 2010 11:14 AM EST up reply actions
Buchanon
Stealing helped Ellsbury score more runs than he would have if did not steal.
basically
cuz he steals 70 bases, he scores more runs than someone with the same OBP that cant steal 70 bases. So in theory he can score about the same amount of runs as someone with a .400 OBP if he can get to the .370 range………..because he can steal 70 bases.
With that in mind SB’s = more runs scored.
As does higher OBP = more runs scored.
First off, Buchanan.
Second off, the point is that it doesn’t make nearly as significant a difference.
The difference between having a man on first and a man on second for run expectancy is:
0 outs: .236 runs
1 out: .152 runs
2 outs: .093 runs
For an average of .16 runs per steal.
The difference in run expectancy for having a man on first instead of 1 more out and nobody on is:
0-1 out: .656
1-2 outs: .456
2-3 outs: .251
With a man on 1st and 2nd and 1 fewer out compared to before (IE: As if a runner had been on 1st before)
0-1 out: 1
1-2 outs: .72
2-3 outs: .456
Note that the differences for having a man on 1st and 3rd vs. 2nd and 3rd are about the same as the difference between a man on first vs. a man on 2nd.
The point is that getting a steal isn’t worth nearly as much as getting on, and that’s saying nothing about the RBI potential of a hit vs. a steal. Or how much a good at bat can drive up a pitch count. Both of those I’d argue are significantly more unnerving for a pitcher than something almost completely out of his control.
Speed will never, ever fully make up for OBP. It can do some small part, but I doubt that’s enough to even make Ellsbury an equivalent of a guy with a .370 OBP, and then one with 0 steals.
No doubt, though, speed will make him truly elite if he can get the OBP up. More times on base means more steals means more runs
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 17, 2010 11:48 AM EST up reply actions
The run expectancy of the team may not improve significantly, but I’m sure the run expectancy of the stealer improves significantly. In other words, a steal won’t change the probability of a “big inning” too much. But, I’m sure the probability of the stealer is significantly greater if he is on 2nd with no outs instead of on 1st with no outs. Do you have any data on that?
From a smaller sample size (4 seasons), chances of scoring at least one run in an inning:
Difference of having a man on 1st vs. 2nd
0 outs: .195
1 out: .123
2 outs: .087
I honestly thought the difference would wind up being BIGGER as the number of outs increased. Go figure.
The difference between having a man on first 0 out vs. nobody on 1 out, etc.:
0-1 out: .264
1-2 outs: .206
2-3 outs: .136
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 17, 2010 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
That’s interesting. So, a runner who steals 2nd with no outs increases his chances of scoring by 19.5%. I think I found the data you used (tangotiger?). Assuming a runner on 1st with no outs has a 43.7% chance of scoring and a runner on 2nd with no outs has a 63.2% chance of scoring, a base stealer would have to have a SB% of at least 69.1% to justify a SB attempt. If that is correct, that’s a little lower than I expected.
pitch count
While it doesn’t show in the pitch count, constant throws to first do take a toll on a pitcher. Pitchouts make a walk more likely as you are giving away a ball unless the batter swings to protect the runner.
Plus Pedroia gets better counts
because of pitch outs. I know it doesnt happen every time Ells is on first but I would imagine Pedroia getting at least 15-20 pitchouts a year. That puts him in better pitch counts 15-20 times in a season. It doesnt sound like much but imagine what Ellsbury runs and OBP would look like with 20 more BB.
How do you know all of this?
just because that is conventional wisdom? Often a clear look at the data shows this kind of conventional wisdom is incorrect. For example the “protection” that Ortiz was believed to get from having Manny hit behind him is not supported by the results. Would you be surprised if a simple look at the game logs and pitchFX data showed:
a)no real change in pitch type for Pedroia with Ellsbury on base?
b)no real change in Pedroia’s hitting results profile?
We can look (it is a fair bit of work) but it might be interesting…
if you can get a % of fastballs without Ellsbury on base
and a % of fastballs with Ellsbury on base.
Now fastball would include, 2 seamers, cut, along with 4 seamers.
If you dont mind doing the work, that would be great.
according to fangraphs
Pedroia didn’t get any pitchouts in 2009, and has received about 24 in his career (about because they use percantages rounded to 1/10 of a percent)
there were NO pitchouts when Ellsbury was on base?
For some reason that is really hard to believe that not one team all season threw a pitchout with the league leader in steals on base.
I don't have that info
I’m just saying apparently Pedroia got no pitchouts in 2009. Martinez or whoever was 3rd could have with Ellsbury on base. It does seem weird to me, but then, pitchouts seem to be happening less and less these days.
Not too surprising
Pedroia after a 1-0 count: .336/.440/.501
Pedroia after an 0-1 count: .282/.311/.419
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 17, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
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