Breaking down the AL EAST using WAR Projections. I took the CHONE Projection and the FANS projection from www.fangraphs.com and averaged the 2. CHONE tends to be a bit on the low end and FANS tends to be a bit on the bloated end, so I figured the average of the 2 might have some basis in reality. I've broken down each team's potential 25-man roster, starting with a 14-man positional roster. In no way am I arguing that WAR is the best stat or that these projections give any clarity to what will actually happen.....but fun to speculate, nonetheless
| YANKEES | ||
| Player | 09TM | WAR |
| Posada, Jorge | NYY | 3.2 |
| Texiera, Mark | NYY | 5.4 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | 4.1 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | 5.8 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | 4.2 |
| Swisher, Nick | NYY | 3.1 |
| Granderson, Curtis | DET | 5.0 |
| Winn, Randy | SF | 1.2 |
| Johnson, Nick | FL | 2.9 |
| Cervalli, Francisco | NYY | 0.7 |
| Pena, Ramiro | NYY | 0.8 |
| Gardner, Brett | NYY | 2.3 |
| Golson, Greg | TEX | -0.1 |
| Miranda, Juan | NYY | 0.8 |
| POSITIONAL | 39.4 | |
Comments: Yankees take the top spot from a positional perspective. I had to fill in the 5th outfielder and the last utility slot from the 40-man and just choose Golson and Miranda. I think Granderson is a bit high here due to a very high fan rating. A-Rod was the second highest rated player in the East behind Longoria.
| REDSOX | ||
| Player | 09TM | WAR |
| Martinez, Victor | BOS | 4.9 |
| Youkilis, Kevin | BOS | 4.7 |
| Pedroia, Dustin | BOS | 5.3 |
| Beltre, Adrian | BOS | 3.5 |
| Scutaro, Marco | TOR | 2.9 |
| Ellsbury, Jacoby | BOS | 3.8 |
| Cameron, Mike | MIL | 2.5 |
| Drew, JD | BOS | 3.5 |
| Ortiz, David | BOS | 2.2 |
| Varitek, Jason | BOS | 1.0 |
| Hall, Bill | SEA | -0.3 |
| Hermida, Jeremy | FL | 1.2 |
| Bates, Aaron | BOS | -1.0 |
| Lowell, Mike | BOS | 1.9 |
| POSITIONAL | 36.1 | |
Comments: The Sox take the second spot barely over the stubborn Rays. Two players stand out here - both Youkilis and Cameron came in very low relative to their career rates (CHONE was low for both of them). I chose Bates as the "14th" man assuming Lowrie would be starting in AAA. Sox are much more consistent than other clubs with every starter coming in 2.0+
| RAYS | ||
| Player | 09TM | WAR |
| Shoppach, Kelly | CLE | 2.2 |
| Pena, Carlos | TB | 3.1 |
| Zobrist, Ben | TB | 4.8 |
| Longoria, Evan | TB | 6.2 |
| Bartlett, Jason | TB | 3.2 |
| Crawford, Carl | TB | 4.3 |
| Upton, BJ | TB | 4.5 |
| Kapler, Gabe | TB | 0.5 |
| Burrell, Pat | TB | 0.9 |
| Navarro, Dionar | TB | 1.5 |
| Brignac, Reid | TB | 0.9 |
| Perez, Fernando | TB | 0.9 |
| Joyce, Matt | TB | 1.3 |
| Aybar, Willy | TB | 1 |
| POSITIONAL | 35.3 | |
Comments: Rays come in right behind the Sox with numerous bounce-back type seasons predicted (Upton, Navarro, Shoppach to name a few). Really no clue as to the bench - Brignac will probably be starting in the minors.
| ORIOLES | ||
| Player | 09TM | WAR |
| Weiters, Matt | BAL | 4.4 |
| Atkins, Garrett | COL | 1.8 |
| Roberts, Brian | BAL | 3.6 |
| Tejada, Miguel | HOU | 2.0 |
| Izturis, Cesar | BAL | 1.3 |
| Pie, Felix | BAL | 1.9 |
| Jones, Adam | BAL | 3.6 |
| Markakis, Nick | BAL | 4.4 |
| Scott, Luke | BAL | 1.3 |
| Tatum, Craig | CIN | -0.5 |
| Andino, Robert | BAL | 0.0 |
| Reimold, Nolan | BAL | 2.5 |
| Montanez, Luis | BAL | 0.7 |
| Wigginton, Ty | BAL | 0.7 |
| POSITIONAL | 27.7 | |
Comments: Baltimore has reason to hope for the future with good young pitching on its way to go with a strong nucelus of positional players. Atkins & Tejada are just keeping spots warm for the youngsters. Baltimore probably wont challenge in 2010 but could get to .500 if everything breaks right.
| BLUE JAYS | ||
| Player | 09TM | WAR |
| Buck, John | KC | 1.0 |
| Overbay, Lyle | TOR | 1.9 |
| Hill, Aaron | TOR | 3.7 |
| Encarnacion, Edwin | TOR | 1.5 |
| Gonalez, Alex | BOS | 0.6 |
| Batista, Jose | TOR | 0.8 |
| Wells, Vernon | TOR | 1.6 |
| Snider, Travis | TOR | 1.5 |
| Lind, Adam | TOR | 2.9 |
| Chavez, Raul | TOR | 0.6 |
| McDonald, John | TOR | 0.2 |
| Bautista, Jose | TOR | 1.9 |
| Gathright, Joey | BOS | 0.6 |
| Ruiz, Randy | TOR | 0.9 |
| POSITIONAL | 19.7 | |
Comments: WOW! How awful is that, a 19.7 WAR from the offense/defense. Toronto may battle KC for the worst record in the AL primarily because they are in the East and primarily because this is just a bad offense/defense. Lind is o.k., Hill is due for a drop back to Earth but the rest of the team is marginal.
Top 10 Projected AL East Positional Players
1. Longoria - TB - 6.2
2. Rodriguez - NYY - 5.8
3. Teixeira - NYY - 5.4
4. Pedroia - BOS - 5.3
5. Granderson - NYY - 5.0
6. Martinez - BOS - 4.9
7. Zobrist - TB - 4.8
8, Youkilis - BOS - 4.7
9. Upton - TB - 4.5
10. Weiters, Markakis - BAL 4.4
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