Breaking down the AL EAST using WAR Projections. I took the CHONE Projection and the FANS projection from www.fangraphs.com and averaged the 2. CHONE tends to be a bit on the low end and FANS tends to be a bit on the bloated end, so I figured the average of the 2 might have some basis in reality. I've broken down each team's potential 25-man roster, starting with a 14-man positional roster. In no way am I arguing that WAR is the best stat or that these projections give any clarity to what will actually happen.....but fun to speculate, nonetheless
Comments: Yankees take the top spot from a positional perspective. I had to fill in the 5th outfielder and the last utility slot from the 40-man and just choose Golson and Miranda. I think Granderson is a bit high here due to a very high fan rating. A-Rod was the second highest rated player in the East behind Longoria.
Comments: The Sox take the second spot barely over the stubborn Rays. Two players stand out here - both Youkilis and Cameron came in very low relative to their career rates (CHONE was low for both of them). I chose Bates as the "14th" man assuming Lowrie would be starting in AAA. Sox are much more consistent than other clubs with every starter coming in 2.0+
Comments: Rays come in right behind the Sox with numerous bounce-back type seasons predicted (Upton, Navarro, Shoppach to name a few). Really no clue as to the bench - Brignac will probably be starting in the minors.
Comments: Baltimore has reason to hope for the future with good young pitching on its way to go with a strong nucelus of positional players. Atkins & Tejada are just keeping spots warm for the youngsters. Baltimore probably wont challenge in 2010 but could get to .500 if everything breaks right.
Comments: WOW! How awful is that, a 19.7 WAR from the offense/defense. Toronto may battle KC for the worst record in the AL primarily because they are in the East and primarily because this is just a bad offense/defense. Lind is o.k., Hill is due for a drop back to Earth but the rest of the team is marginal.
Top 10 Projected AL East Positional Players
1. Longoria - TB - 6.2
2. Rodriguez - NYY - 5.8
3. Teixeira - NYY - 5.4
4. Pedroia - BOS - 5.3
5. Granderson - NYY - 5.0
6. Martinez - BOS - 4.9
7. Zobrist - TB - 4.8
8, Youkilis - BOS - 4.7
9. Upton - TB - 4.5
10. Weiters, Markakis - BAL 4.4