AL EAST WAR Projections - Positional
by BobZupcic on Feb 1, 2010 4:43 PM EST
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PrintBreaking down the AL EAST using WAR Projections. I took the CHONE Projection and the FANS projection from www.fangraphs.com and averaged the 2. CHONE tends to be a bit on the low end and FANS tends to be a bit on the bloated end, so I figured the average of the 2 might have some basis in reality. I've broken down each team's potential 25-man roster, starting with a 14-man positional roster. In no way am I arguing that WAR is the best stat or that these projections give any clarity to what will actually happen.....but fun to speculate, nonetheless
| YANKEES | ||
| Player | 09TM | WAR |
| Posada, Jorge | NYY | 3.2 |
| Texiera, Mark | NYY | 5.4 |
| Cano, Robinson | NYY | 4.1 |
| Rodriguez, Alex | NYY | 5.8 |
| Jeter, Derek | NYY | 4.2 |
| Swisher, Nick | NYY | 3.1 |
| Granderson, Curtis | DET | 5.0 |
| Winn, Randy | SF | 1.2 |
| Johnson, Nick | FL | 2.9 |
| Cervalli, Francisco | NYY | 0.7 |
| Pena, Ramiro | NYY | 0.8 |
| Gardner, Brett | NYY | 2.3 |
| Golson, Greg | TEX | -0.1 |
| Miranda, Juan | NYY | 0.8 |
| POSITIONAL | 39.4 | |
Comments: Yankees take the top spot from a positional perspective. I had to fill in the 5th outfielder and the last utility slot from the 40-man and just choose Golson and Miranda. I think Granderson is a bit high here due to a very high fan rating. A-Rod was the second highest rated player in the East behind Longoria.
| REDSOX | ||
| Player | 09TM | WAR |
| Martinez, Victor | BOS | 4.9 |
| Youkilis, Kevin | BOS | 4.7 |
| Pedroia, Dustin | BOS | 5.3 |
| Beltre, Adrian | BOS | 3.5 |
| Scutaro, Marco | TOR | 2.9 |
| Ellsbury, Jacoby | BOS | 3.8 |
| Cameron, Mike | MIL | 2.5 |
| Drew, JD | BOS | 3.5 |
| Ortiz, David | BOS | 2.2 |
| Varitek, Jason | BOS | 1.0 |
| Hall, Bill | SEA | -0.3 |
| Hermida, Jeremy | FL | 1.2 |
| Bates, Aaron | BOS | -1.0 |
| Lowell, Mike | BOS | 1.9 |
| POSITIONAL | 36.1 | |
Comments: The Sox take the second spot barely over the stubborn Rays. Two players stand out here - both Youkilis and Cameron came in very low relative to their career rates (CHONE was low for both of them). I chose Bates as the "14th" man assuming Lowrie would be starting in AAA. Sox are much more consistent than other clubs with every starter coming in 2.0+
| RAYS | ||
| Player | 09TM | WAR |
| Shoppach, Kelly | CLE | 2.2 |
| Pena, Carlos | TB | 3.1 |
| Zobrist, Ben | TB | 4.8 |
| Longoria, Evan | TB | 6.2 |
| Bartlett, Jason | TB | 3.2 |
| Crawford, Carl | TB | 4.3 |
| Upton, BJ | TB | 4.5 |
| Kapler, Gabe | TB | 0.5 |
| Burrell, Pat | TB | 0.9 |
| Navarro, Dionar | TB | 1.5 |
| Brignac, Reid | TB | 0.9 |
| Perez, Fernando | TB | 0.9 |
| Joyce, Matt | TB | 1.3 |
| Aybar, Willy | TB | 1 |
| POSITIONAL | 35.3 | |
Comments: Rays come in right behind the Sox with numerous bounce-back type seasons predicted (Upton, Navarro, Shoppach to name a few). Really no clue as to the bench - Brignac will probably be starting in the minors.
| ORIOLES | ||
| Player | 09TM | WAR |
| Weiters, Matt | BAL | 4.4 |
| Atkins, Garrett | COL | 1.8 |
| Roberts, Brian | BAL | 3.6 |
| Tejada, Miguel | HOU | 2.0 |
| Izturis, Cesar | BAL | 1.3 |
| Pie, Felix | BAL | 1.9 |
| Jones, Adam | BAL | 3.6 |
| Markakis, Nick | BAL | 4.4 |
| Scott, Luke | BAL | 1.3 |
| Tatum, Craig | CIN | -0.5 |
| Andino, Robert | BAL | 0.0 |
| Reimold, Nolan | BAL | 2.5 |
| Montanez, Luis | BAL | 0.7 |
| Wigginton, Ty | BAL | 0.7 |
| POSITIONAL | 27.7 | |
Comments: Baltimore has reason to hope for the future with good young pitching on its way to go with a strong nucelus of positional players. Atkins & Tejada are just keeping spots warm for the youngsters. Baltimore probably wont challenge in 2010 but could get to .500 if everything breaks right.
| BLUE JAYS | ||
| Player | 09TM | WAR |
| Buck, John | KC | 1.0 |
| Overbay, Lyle | TOR | 1.9 |
| Hill, Aaron | TOR | 3.7 |
| Encarnacion, Edwin | TOR | 1.5 |
| Gonalez, Alex | BOS | 0.6 |
| Batista, Jose | TOR | 0.8 |
| Wells, Vernon | TOR | 1.6 |
| Snider, Travis | TOR | 1.5 |
| Lind, Adam | TOR | 2.9 |
| Chavez, Raul | TOR | 0.6 |
| McDonald, John | TOR | 0.2 |
| Bautista, Jose | TOR | 1.9 |
| Gathright, Joey | BOS | 0.6 |
| Ruiz, Randy | TOR | 0.9 |
| POSITIONAL | 19.7 | |
Comments: WOW! How awful is that, a 19.7 WAR from the offense/defense. Toronto may battle KC for the worst record in the AL primarily because they are in the East and primarily because this is just a bad offense/defense. Lind is o.k., Hill is due for a drop back to Earth but the rest of the team is marginal.
Top 10 Projected AL East Positional Players
1. Longoria - TB - 6.2
2. Rodriguez - NYY - 5.8
3. Teixeira - NYY - 5.4
4. Pedroia - BOS - 5.3
5. Granderson - NYY - 5.0
6. Martinez - BOS - 4.9
7. Zobrist - TB - 4.8
8, Youkilis - BOS - 4.7
9. Upton - TB - 4.5
10. Weiters, Markakis - BAL 4.4
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I can't imagine Youk coming in that low.
CHONE’s projections for him were kinda ridiculously low, IIRC. Something like a 100 point OPS drop from the last 2 years?
USG
I feel like every projection I've seen for him is way below where he's been performing
I don’t understand
Maybe because
It takes his whole career and minors into account, versus these past couple seasons of higher level performance?
So predictions ignore breakout performances?
It’s not like the last 1000 at bats is an unreasonably small sample size.
USG
It does seem a little ridiculous that it would be weighted that way
Recent performance is a much stronger predictor of the coming year’s performance than what he’s done in the more distant past. I can’t imagine any reasonable person predicting a big drop-off for Youk this year.
Of course, I don’t think anyone could have imagined Papi hitting like a pitcher for the first ten weeks or so of last season either.
A lot of these projection systems have trouble with players that have displayed a unique career path. I’m not sure exactly how CHONE works, but PECOTA tries to match player career trends and use that for a projection. Because there are few player’s with careers like Youk, the systems are having trouble with thee projections.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
then how is Upton just below him?
Upton is highly overrated just because he had a couple great playoff series. But seriously, what has this guy ever done that people think he can perform close to what Youk has done the last 4 years? Yeah he has potential but except for those 2 series he hasnt really done anything.
Hands down one of the most overrated players in all of baseball!!!!!!!!!
Upton's 2007 season
is why people think highly of the guy, and are willing to bet on him breaking out.
by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 3, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
24 HR's and 82 RBI's
2 yrs ago and he hasnt topped 11 HR’s since…..Youk 27 HR 94 RBI last year, 29 HR 115 RBI’s in 08, 16 HR’s 83 RBI’s in 07. If recent performance is a stong predictor like RSNexile states then there is no reason Upton should be higher than Youk since Youk beats him in every offensive catergory. Ok so Upton should get a small bump for playing center but doesnt Youk get any bump for playing 2 positions and above avg defense at both?
Would anybody here bet that Upton will be more valuable than Youk next year? Youk will be in the top 10 for MVP voting and Im betting that Upton wont even be close.
Upton will probably get 275 15 HR 75 RBI’s and 80 runs (all close to career highs too).
Youk will probably get 300 25 100 90 and will probably get a gold glove too.
With a higher OBP and SLG % with less K’s, the only place that Upton gets him is SB’s and the position he plays.
I just lost a lot of respect for WAR.
oh sorry.....
Its not higher but it should be at least 1.0 – 2.0 lower instead of almost the same.
yeah I agree
I think the predictions are just way off honestly. Though a center fielder with that kind of production is very valuable.
Again,
this is WAR. It takes into account defensive ability and positional scarcity. These projections are not saying the Upton will be better offensively. In fact, they say that Youk will be much, much better offensively.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
This
There are a ton of good offensive 1B in baseball:
Youk, Teix, Pujols, Howard, Cabrera, Fielder, Gonzalez, Morneau
and the second tier includes:
Berkman, Votto, Pena, Sandoval… the list goes on
I don’t think there’s a single CF that matches the production of that first tier of 1B
I'm not WAR fan myself
but considering the positional adjustments that go into the system, and that the Rays seem to be the favorite team for saber stats, and it’s understandable why BJ ranks so high.
Not saying he should be, but it comes as no surprise to me that he is rated highly.
by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 4, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
Rated Upton Highly in fine
Problem is they rated Youk low been over 5 last 2 yrs
True
Upton’s WAR ratings (CHONE – 3.8, FANS – 5.0)
Youk’s WAR ratings (CHONE – 3.8, FANS – 5.5)
Upton’s Hitting Projections:
CHONE – wOBA 0.356, wRC – 87.3
JAMES – wOBA 0.343, wRC – 75.8
Youk’s Hitting Projections
CHONE – wOBA 0.377, wRC – 96.8
JAMES – wOBA 0.382, wRC – 105.4
Remember you're looking at WAR, not raw offensive stats.
So position is taken into account. Upton gains almost a 1.5 WAR compared to Youk because of position and defense. All of them project Youk as a much better offensive player.
"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw
3.3 dif from NY
Does the pitching make up the dif.
Pitching
is hard to do since CHONE does not project pitching….some of the FANS ratings are ridiculous for the Yanks which puts their pitching slightly ahead of ours…
Actually it does
Look at the Runs vs Repl column. That is runs above replacement (RAR). Now just divide that by 10.5 to get WAR.
vr, Xei
possibly
superficially, FIPs would probably show the two pitching staffs to be similar.
Where the Sox probably get a nudge is that a lot of the above Sox’ WAR value is in defense which helps the BABIP that determines how well FIPS converts into wins.
Some of the offensive discrepancies
are outweighed by Lowell’s 1.9…..doubt he earns that with limit time, but he could. If he’s traded away we probably replace that slot with a lower WAR player
But you are right….Drew, Cameron and Youk are all low
Youk: 5.6, 5.6 in 08 and 09….CHONE puts him at 3.8 with a major batting dip
Cameron: 4.1, 4.3 in 08 and 09…..CHONE a ridiculous 1.4 which would be the lowest of his career
Drew: 4.2, 4.7 in 08 and 09…..CHONE a 2.6
I concur with all those points as well as question the Granderson at 5.0.
I also wonder at a 4.2 for Jeter. That seems a bit optimistic.
Jeter was in the 7 range in 2009
4.2 seems like a safe, conservative range.
by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 2, 2010 10:16 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, the fountain of youth stadium is still going to be there
so maybe he won’t resume the 3.8, 3.7, … trend he showed in the prior two years.
4.5 from Upton. That seems pretty high.
What was his excuse last year? Wasn’t he hurt in 08 and his playoff homerun bonanza was supposedly the true BJ Upton? I forget.
Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
He had shoulder surgery in the off-season
between ’08 and ’09, and says he never felt right during the season.
I won’t be someone who says he goes bonkers this season, but I do expect him to be pretty good on the whole.
Also, Granderson is indeed a bit too high. If Granderson is that good, I’ll gladly eat crow for being one of his harshest critics.
by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 2, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions
Upton
Upton is a bum. He wont do crap. He shows flashes but really doesnt care. Too overrated. To compare him with Youk is insane. Youk has always outperformed Upton by far.
I agree
and that is why I cant put too much stock in WAR. Any stat that say BJ Upton is just about the same player as Youk is a joke in my opinion. I dont care what position he plays.
I still say blame the projections, not WAR
because in 2009, Upton was 2.5 WAR while Youk was 5.7. I think for whatever reason, those are just two players who projection systems are entirely inaccurate with.
oh well thats better then
I think the projections are high on Upton, assuming he is finally going to reach his offensive potential, which there is def a lot of. I just wonder how many more years they are going to project him to be an offensive force.
I, too, don't put much weight at all in projections.
The only ones that are transparent are transparent in their simplicity.
USG
by Ben Buchanan on Feb 18, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions
Predictions
Made on good solid statistical trending can be o.k. but they are still what they are – predictions
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