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AL EAST WAR Projections - Positional

Breaking down the AL EAST using WAR Projections. I took the CHONE Projection and the FANS projection from www.fangraphs.com and averaged the 2. CHONE tends to be a bit on the low end and FANS tends to be a bit on the bloated end, so I figured the average of the 2 might have some basis in reality. I've broken down each team's potential 25-man roster, starting with a 14-man positional roster. In no way am I arguing that WAR is the best stat or that these projections give any clarity to what will actually happen.....but fun to speculate, nonetheless

Star-divide

YANKEES
Player 09TM WAR
Posada, Jorge NYY 3.2
Texiera, Mark NYY 5.4
Cano, Robinson NYY 4.1
Rodriguez, Alex NYY 5.8
Jeter, Derek NYY 4.2
Swisher, Nick NYY 3.1
Granderson, Curtis DET 5.0
Winn, Randy SF 1.2
Johnson, Nick FL 2.9
Cervalli, Francisco NYY 0.7
Pena, Ramiro NYY 0.8
Gardner, Brett NYY 2.3
Golson, Greg TEX -0.1
Miranda, Juan NYY 0.8
POSITIONAL   39.4

Comments: Yankees take the top spot from a positional perspective. I had to fill in the 5th outfielder and the last utility slot from the 40-man and just choose Golson and Miranda. I think Granderson is a bit high here due to a very high fan rating. A-Rod was the second highest rated player in the East behind Longoria.

REDSOX
Player 09TM WAR
Martinez, Victor BOS 4.9
Youkilis, Kevin BOS 4.7
Pedroia, Dustin BOS 5.3
Beltre, Adrian BOS 3.5
Scutaro, Marco TOR 2.9
Ellsbury, Jacoby BOS 3.8
Cameron, Mike MIL 2.5
Drew, JD BOS 3.5
Ortiz, David BOS 2.2
Varitek, Jason BOS 1.0
Hall, Bill SEA -0.3
Hermida, Jeremy FL 1.2
Bates, Aaron BOS -1.0
Lowell, Mike BOS 1.9
POSITIONAL   36.1

Comments: The Sox take the second spot barely over the stubborn Rays. Two players stand out here - both Youkilis and Cameron came in very low relative to their career rates (CHONE was low for both of them). I chose Bates as the "14th" man assuming Lowrie would be starting in AAA. Sox are much more consistent than other clubs with every starter coming in 2.0+

RAYS
Player 09TM WAR
Shoppach, Kelly CLE 2.2
Pena, Carlos TB 3.1
Zobrist, Ben TB 4.8
Longoria, Evan TB 6.2
Bartlett, Jason TB 3.2
Crawford, Carl TB 4.3
Upton, BJ TB 4.5
Kapler, Gabe TB 0.5
Burrell, Pat TB 0.9
Navarro, Dionar TB 1.5
Brignac, Reid TB 0.9
Perez, Fernando TB 0.9
Joyce, Matt TB 1.3
Aybar, Willy TB 1
POSITIONAL   35.3

Comments: Rays come in right behind the Sox with numerous bounce-back type seasons predicted (Upton, Navarro, Shoppach to name a few). Really no clue as to the bench - Brignac will probably be starting in the minors.

ORIOLES
Player 09TM WAR
Weiters, Matt BAL 4.4
Atkins, Garrett COL 1.8
Roberts, Brian BAL 3.6
Tejada, Miguel HOU 2.0
Izturis, Cesar BAL 1.3
Pie, Felix BAL 1.9
Jones, Adam BAL 3.6
Markakis, Nick BAL 4.4
Scott, Luke BAL 1.3
Tatum, Craig CIN -0.5
Andino, Robert BAL 0.0
Reimold, Nolan BAL 2.5
Montanez, Luis BAL 0.7
Wigginton, Ty BAL 0.7
POSITIONAL   27.7

Comments: Baltimore has reason to hope for the future with good young pitching on its way to go with a strong nucelus of positional players. Atkins & Tejada are just keeping spots warm for the youngsters. Baltimore probably wont challenge in 2010 but could get to .500 if everything breaks right.

BLUE JAYS
Player 09TM WAR
Buck, John KC 1.0
Overbay, Lyle TOR 1.9
Hill, Aaron TOR 3.7
Encarnacion, Edwin TOR 1.5
Gonalez, Alex BOS 0.6
Batista, Jose TOR 0.8
Wells, Vernon TOR 1.6
Snider, Travis TOR 1.5
Lind, Adam TOR 2.9
Chavez, Raul TOR 0.6
McDonald, John TOR 0.2
Bautista, Jose TOR 1.9
Gathright, Joey BOS 0.6
Ruiz, Randy TOR 0.9
POSITIONAL   19.7

Comments: WOW! How awful is that, a 19.7 WAR from the offense/defense. Toronto may battle KC for the worst record in the AL primarily because they are in the East and primarily because this is just a bad offense/defense. Lind is o.k., Hill is due for a drop back to Earth but the rest of the team is marginal.

Top 10 Projected AL East Positional Players

1. Longoria - TB - 6.2

2. Rodriguez - NYY - 5.8

3. Teixeira - NYY - 5.4

4. Pedroia - BOS - 5.3

5. Granderson - NYY - 5.0

6. Martinez - BOS - 4.9

7. Zobrist - TB - 4.8

8, Youkilis - BOS - 4.7

9. Upton - TB - 4.5

10. Weiters, Markakis - BAL 4.4

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I can't imagine Youk coming in that low.

CHONE’s projections for him were kinda ridiculously low, IIRC. Something like a 100 point OPS drop from the last 2 years?

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Feb 1, 2010 4:47 PM EST reply actions  

Maybe because

It takes his whole career and minors into account, versus these past couple seasons of higher level performance?

by Sologub on Feb 1, 2010 7:18 PM EST up reply actions  

So predictions ignore breakout performances?

It’s not like the last 1000 at bats is an unreasonably small sample size.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Feb 1, 2010 7:38 PM EST up reply actions  

It does seem a little ridiculous that it would be weighted that way

Recent performance is a much stronger predictor of the coming year’s performance than what he’s done in the more distant past. I can’t imagine any reasonable person predicting a big drop-off for Youk this year.

Of course, I don’t think anyone could have imagined Papi hitting like a pitcher for the first ten weeks or so of last season either.

by RSNexile on Feb 2, 2010 4:49 PM EST up reply actions  

A lot of these projection systems have trouble with players that have displayed a unique career path. I’m not sure exactly how CHONE works, but PECOTA tries to match player career trends and use that for a projection. Because there are few player’s with careers like Youk, the systems are having trouble with thee projections.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Feb 3, 2010 11:53 AM EST up reply actions  

then how is Upton just below him?

Upton is highly overrated just because he had a couple great playoff series. But seriously, what has this guy ever done that people think he can perform close to what Youk has done the last 4 years? Yeah he has potential but except for those 2 series he hasnt really done anything.

Hands down one of the most overrated players in all of baseball!!!!!!!!!

by Jason A on Feb 3, 2010 3:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Upton's 2007 season

is why people think highly of the guy, and are willing to bet on him breaking out.

by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 3, 2010 4:38 PM EST up reply actions  

24 HR's and 82 RBI's

2 yrs ago and he hasnt topped 11 HR’s since…..Youk 27 HR 94 RBI last year, 29 HR 115 RBI’s in 08, 16 HR’s 83 RBI’s in 07. If recent performance is a stong predictor like RSNexile states then there is no reason Upton should be higher than Youk since Youk beats him in every offensive catergory. Ok so Upton should get a small bump for playing center but doesnt Youk get any bump for playing 2 positions and above avg defense at both?
Would anybody here bet that Upton will be more valuable than Youk next year? Youk will be in the top 10 for MVP voting and Im betting that Upton wont even be close.
Upton will probably get 275 15 HR 75 RBI’s and 80 runs (all close to career highs too).
Youk will probably get 300 25 100 90 and will probably get a gold glove too.
With a higher OBP and SLG % with less K’s, the only place that Upton gets him is SB’s and the position he plays.

I just lost a lot of respect for WAR.

by Jason A on Feb 4, 2010 4:08 PM EST up reply actions  

but Upton isn't higher than Youk

He’s just .2 WAR below. With very optimistic projections.

by wolf9309 on Feb 4, 2010 4:23 PM EST up reply actions  

oh sorry.....

Its not higher but it should be at least 1.0 – 2.0 lower instead of almost the same.

by Jason A on Feb 4, 2010 4:43 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah I agree

I think the predictions are just way off honestly. Though a center fielder with that kind of production is very valuable.

by wolf9309 on Feb 4, 2010 4:51 PM EST up reply actions  

Again,

this is WAR. It takes into account defensive ability and positional scarcity. These projections are not saying the Upton will be better offensively. In fact, they say that Youk will be much, much better offensively.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Feb 4, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions  

This

There are a ton of good offensive 1B in baseball:
Youk, Teix, Pujols, Howard, Cabrera, Fielder, Gonzalez, Morneau
and the second tier includes:
Berkman, Votto, Pena, Sandoval… the list goes on

I don’t think there’s a single CF that matches the production of that first tier of 1B

by Schulz on Feb 5, 2010 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm not WAR fan myself

but considering the positional adjustments that go into the system, and that the Rays seem to be the favorite team for saber stats, and it’s understandable why BJ ranks so high.

Not saying he should be, but it comes as no surprise to me that he is rated highly.

by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 4, 2010 5:32 PM EST up reply actions  

Rated Upton Highly in fine

Problem is they rated Youk low been over 5 last 2 yrs

by Pl1166 on Feb 4, 2010 9:19 PM EST up reply actions  

True

Upton’s WAR ratings (CHONE – 3.8, FANS – 5.0)
Youk’s WAR ratings (CHONE – 3.8, FANS – 5.5)

Upton’s Hitting Projections:
CHONE – wOBA 0.356, wRC – 87.3
JAMES – wOBA 0.343, wRC – 75.8

Youk’s Hitting Projections
CHONE – wOBA 0.377, wRC – 96.8
JAMES – wOBA 0.382, wRC – 105.4

by BobZupcic on Feb 5, 2010 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Remember you're looking at WAR, not raw offensive stats.

So position is taken into account. Upton gains almost a 1.5 WAR compared to Youk because of position and defense. All of them project Youk as a much better offensive player.

"Ninety percent [of my salary] I'll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
-Tug McGraw

by BTLove on Feb 3, 2010 5:23 PM EST up reply actions  

3.3 dif from NY

Does the pitching make up the dif.

by Pl1166 on Feb 1, 2010 5:36 PM EST reply actions  

Pitching

is hard to do since CHONE does not project pitching….some of the FANS ratings are ridiculous for the Yanks which puts their pitching slightly ahead of ours…

by BobZupcic on Feb 1, 2010 6:44 PM EST up reply actions  

True

Just not Value based pitching like WAR, etc.

by BobZupcic on Feb 11, 2010 4:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Actually it does

Look at the Runs vs Repl column. That is runs above replacement (RAR). Now just divide that by 10.5 to get WAR.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 12, 2010 4:42 PM EST up reply actions  

possibly

superficially, FIPs would probably show the two pitching staffs to be similar.

Where the Sox probably get a nudge is that a lot of the above Sox’ WAR value is in defense which helps the BABIP that determines how well FIPS converts into wins.

by mmmmm on Feb 1, 2010 11:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Some of the offensive discrepancies

are outweighed by Lowell’s 1.9…..doubt he earns that with limit time, but he could. If he’s traded away we probably replace that slot with a lower WAR player

But you are right….Drew, Cameron and Youk are all low

Youk: 5.6, 5.6 in 08 and 09….CHONE puts him at 3.8 with a major batting dip
Cameron: 4.1, 4.3 in 08 and 09…..CHONE a ridiculous 1.4 which would be the lowest of his career
Drew: 4.2, 4.7 in 08 and 09…..CHONE a 2.6

by BobZupcic on Feb 1, 2010 6:49 PM EST reply actions  

yeah, the fountain of youth stadium is still going to be there

so maybe he won’t resume the 3.8, 3.7, … trend he showed in the prior two years.

by mmmmm on Feb 3, 2010 12:35 AM EST up reply actions  

4.5 from Upton. That seems pretty high.

What was his excuse last year? Wasn’t he hurt in 08 and his playoff homerun bonanza was supposedly the true BJ Upton? I forget.

Strikeouts are boring- Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by CasanovaWong on Feb 1, 2010 11:31 PM EST reply actions  

He had shoulder surgery in the off-season

between ’08 and ’09, and says he never felt right during the season.

I won’t be someone who says he goes bonkers this season, but I do expect him to be pretty good on the whole.

Also, Granderson is indeed a bit too high. If Granderson is that good, I’ll gladly eat crow for being one of his harshest critics.

by FloridaownsFSU on Feb 2, 2010 10:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Upton

Upton is a bum. He wont do crap. He shows flashes but really doesnt care. Too overrated. To compare him with Youk is insane. Youk has always outperformed Upton by far.

by Drew P on Feb 17, 2010 5:58 PM EST reply actions  

I agree

and that is why I cant put too much stock in WAR. Any stat that say BJ Upton is just about the same player as Youk is a joke in my opinion. I dont care what position he plays.

by Jason A on Feb 18, 2010 8:54 AM EST up reply actions  

I still say blame the projections, not WAR

because in 2009, Upton was 2.5 WAR while Youk was 5.7. I think for whatever reason, those are just two players who projection systems are entirely inaccurate with.

by wolf9309 on Feb 18, 2010 9:19 AM EST up reply actions  

oh well thats better then

I think the projections are high on Upton, assuming he is finally going to reach his offensive potential, which there is def a lot of. I just wonder how many more years they are going to project him to be an offensive force.

by Jason A on Feb 18, 2010 10:07 AM EST up reply actions  

I, too, don't put much weight at all in projections.

The only ones that are transparent are transparent in their simplicity.

USG

by Ben Buchanan on Feb 18, 2010 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Predictions

Made on good solid statistical trending can be o.k. but they are still what they are – predictions

by BobZupcic on Feb 19, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

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