Are we screwed against lefties?
by Rogue Nine on Dec 9, 2010 7:50 AM EST
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PrintWith the additions of Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez the Sox have added two tremendous players to the lineup, one considered to be the best positional player available via free agency and the other considered to be the best available via trade (so far). With both players being left handed hitters it begs the question, how will the new 2011 Sox fare against left handed pitching?
First we need to consider, what are we replacing, and with whom? We lose Adrian Beltre, Victor Martinez and with the addition of Crawford, one of Ellsbury, Cameron and Drew.
The easy one first, Adrian Beltre positionally is being replaced by Kevin Youkilis, in the lineup, by Adrian Gonzalez. At catcher, at the moment we're looking at a Saltalamacchia and Varitek platoon to relace Martinez. The outfield get's trickier. The best bet would probably be moving Cameron into a platoon with JD Drew, but it's uncertain what will happen there exactly.
Now, a quick look at the 2010 version of the Red Sox against left handed pitching, I've left a few minor players and pitchers out of this, my cut off point was 30 PAs against lefties considering the injuries and fill ins we had. I used the stat weighted on base average or wOBA, a way of measuring power and patience in one number, it's scaled to OBP, so an average wOBA is equal to the league average OBP, roughly around .335. Whatever you would consider to be an impressive OBP, is considered an impressive wOBA.
2010:
Name / PA / wOBA
Kevin Youkilis / 113 / .536
Victor Martinez / 167 / .520
Mike Cameron / 48 / .479
Jed Lowrie / 81 / .442
Adrian Beltre / 200 / .396
Darnell McDonald / 174 / .360
Marco Scutaro / 200 / .331
Dustin Pedroia / 90 / .322
Daniel Nava / 36 / .306
Bill Hall / 163 / .298
Mike Lowell / 106 / .282
J.D. Drew / 172 / .280
David Ortiz / 200 / .268
Ryan Kalish / 44 / .260
All in all these batters led the Sox to about a .360 wOBA against lefties by my calculations.
Here is what we've added to the equation:
Carl Crawford came off a year in which he hit to a .306 wOBA against lefties, Adrian hit a career best .403 wOBA against them.
Now next year, let's look at the idealized lineup against lefties considering career wOBA against them.
1B: Gonzalez .339
2B: Pedroia .355
SS: Lowrie .408
3B: Youkilis .402
C: Varitek .369
LF: Crawford .307
CF: Ellsbury .334
RF: Cameron .381
DH: Ortiz/Drew .336/.340
Now, I gave Crawford and Ellsbury the edge in the field mostly due to age, neither hit lefties better but Drew might be going the other direction of them in terms of ability. If both Drew and Ortiz continue to be abysmal against lefties its possible maybe Scutaro could see some DH time, with his .328 career wOBA against them that he actually performed up to this season. Assuming this lineup (with Ortiz at DH) and equal at bats for all as well as exactly career numbers, this lineup would produce a wOBA of .359, nearly exactly what we did with a lineup featuring Martinez and Beltre.
Of course this all making a lot of assumptions and Francona doing the right thing when facing a lefty, but all things considered, we don't drop off a whole lot as some might think with Beltre and Victor gone.
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Oh yeah
We’ll be just fine.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
My cookies are legendary, and for good reason.
Someone said it in the Crawford thread.
Our lineup against lefties is better than most teams regular lineup.
I simply think
Francona wont platoon much, he has never done so, or? And i think it will atleast take 3 months before he drops Papi against lefties in the lineup.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 9, 2010 12:28 PM EST reply actions
The issue there is
Who’s better? Is he going to have Scoot DH against lefties?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Ahh
Missed the “in the lineup” part. Ben raised a decent point in another thread, maybe the optimal lineup has Scoot at SS, Lowrie at 3rd and Gonzo/Youk at DH, keeping Drew and Ortiz out of the lineup entirely. That might be an IMPROVEMENT of our lineup over last year.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
it could be
but I doubt we see Ortiz platooned for unless he is downright atrocious against lefties.
Great piece, Rogue.
’Glad you took the time to throw all the numbers together.
One caution I would put about that is that the lefties we’ll need most to beat are the yankees lefties. It would be useful to see everybody’s numbers vs CC, Lee & Pettit.
i will still feel better if Theo can find another RH bat to add to the mix.
How many Lefties
Why are left handed pitchers at a premium??? Because there is so few of them. How many High Quality lefties are there in the MLB… 5, 10, 15…. out of 30 teams that equates to less than 1 per team. The Rays have one the Yankees have one but all the others lefties are around the league average. So 1 in every 8 games will be a lefty and only 1 in every 20ish will be an above average lefty… On the other hande look at all the righties they will face….. Ummmm Good
don't forget cliff lee
But you make a good point. Having a lefty-heavy lineup is probably a good thing most games.
depending on whether Petitte returns
and of course, whether he is still effective, the Yankees could have 3, assuming they sign Lee.
Yes, lefty heavy batting is great on average, but one does have to be able to match up with the Evil Empire since those games are basically worth twice what every other game is worth!
I’m not overly worried. In the end, we are best served not just by having great offense against everybody, but also by having great defense. So long as we have Lester & Buchholz lined up on games against CC and Lee, then our offense just has to squeeze out a couple of runs …
And in that theme, improving our bullpen is a critical need for our run prevention.
But it would still be nice, natural fit to have one more RH bat available.
I'm not too worried
In 2011 Cameron can platoon with the outfielders against lefties. The 5th outfielder (McDonald) can platoon with Ortiz at DH. If the budget permits, they can look to acquire a RHH 5th OF/1B type at the trade deadline.
In 2012, barring a big 2011 season, I think they replace Ortiz with a righty bat.
I think you're right re: Ortiz
There always seems to be a plethora of good full-time DH types on the free agent market that can be had for pretty cheap. Or 2012 Theo could channel his inner 2011 Theo and sign Prince Fielder to be our DH.
Just kidding… sort of.
Pujols would make a pretty nice $30M/year DH/1B but I don’t see him making it out of St. Louis and, if he does, the Sox committing those types of funds on the heels of the Crawford and Gonzo deals.
On a more realistic note, assuming there isn’t a big one dimensional RH bat out there, I’d like to see the 2012 DH to be a 4th OF/1B type (Willingham?) that can provide greater roster flexibility.
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