Carl Crawford's Immediate Impact In Boston -- A Quick Look
by Ben Buchanan on Dec 9, 2010 2:03 AM EST
in Analysis
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PrintSometimes I hate being the guy who cares about the contracts in baseball.
I mean, consider the situation: the Red Sox had just offered up to their fanbase a moment of pure Nirvana the likes of which are rarely achieved in sports. With the afterglow of the Adrian Gonzalez deal far from faded, bam! Carl Crawford signs from out of nowhere. That's the year's top free agent batter, and the top batter on the trade market in 72 hours' time.
My first reaction? "Wow, that's over $40 million to a pair of 36-year-olds."
For once, shut up, me.
Right now I don't want to think about the possibility of what Crawford could become. I want to think about what he is, and what he means for this team. Not just that, but what he means for this team compared to the 2010 team. I have a feeling it's good news.
Last year's outfield started with Jacoby Ellsbury in left, Mike Cameron in center, and J.D. Drew in right. It ended in Mass General's ICU.
The Red Sox only ended up receiving a little over 200 games from those three outfielders--mostly from Drew--eventually running through 11 different players over the year. The results were about what you could expect from such a...diverse group: 28th in the majors in fielding by UZR (-23.4), worst by DRS (-41), and 3rd worst wOBA in the American League (.324), ahead of only the Athletics and Mariners.
Ouch
So let's take all the contributions of the left fielders, and turn them into Carl Crawford. 11 runs below average offensively? 19 below average defensively?
Crawford was worth 32 runs offensively last year (9th best amongst outfielders, for those skeptics of Crawford's offense), and 18 defensively. For those who don't care to do the math, the difference is 80 runs, or about 8 wins.
Carl Crawford would have changed last year's team from an 89-73 team missing the playoffs to a 97-65 division winner.
An exact science? No. Maybe Crawford's defensive value will take a hit thanks to playing in left field (if he does). Maybe somehow Fenway doesn't end up helping his numbers. Maybe Adrian Beltre somehow manages to break his ribs.
But it still sounds pretty nice.
And did I mention we got that Adrian Gonzalez guy?
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Quick and dirty for tonight. I actually still have a paper to write!
We’ll be hitting the Crawford signing hard over the next few days, I imagine.
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Speaking of papers, I have one too.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
My cookies are legendary, and for good reason.
If Crawford is a 6 win next three years
He can be a 2 win player for the final three of his contract and STILL we break even. This ignores the fact Crawford looks like a guy who should age well – perhaps that’s negated by how important speed is to his game, though.
He's only under contract until he's 36
That’s not many years of decline.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
My cookies are legendary, and for good reason.
This deal is a bargain....
Compared to A-Rod’s contract considering the difference in the age of both players when the contracts end and the salary.
The contract(s) really don't worry me all that much to be honest.
Going into the “decline” years of CC and Gonzo the money for Beckett, Lackey, Matsuzaka, and some other contracts will be coming off the books, not to mention what comes off after next season. CC and Gonzo will be mainstays in the lineup as the next infusion of youth moves up the ranks, and this will give the Sox a chance to bring back guys like Pedroia, Youkilis, and Lester once their deals are done.
Go Sox
Who becomes available at this point? An what would it take to pry Ellsbury away from the Sox, hypothetically speaking as a Braves fan?
A righty 4th OF
Or a decent reliever.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
My cookies are legendary, and for good reason.
We need a guy who can hit lefties decently off the bench.
That Matt Dia… damnit.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
You know what it would take
Kimbrel/Venters/Minor/etc.
by South Coast Ghost on Dec 9, 2010 11:45 AM EST up reply actions
If we don't trade Ells this winter,
I’m pretty sure that we won’t give up a single hit to left center next year.
by revived0103 on Dec 9, 2010 4:15 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
great article
Love it! I’m exactly like you, thinking about 2015 and later but we can worry about his declining years when they are happening and stop speculating what is in 5 years. After we signed Gonzo I said I want no part of CC, but lets just celebrate that we got 2 awesome players, we might be leftieheavy for now but with Drew and Papi likely gone in 2012 that will be only 1 year.
by German Red Sox Fan on Dec 9, 2010 4:27 AM EST reply actions
Ben,
You know my argument on Ellsbury, if a player that fast needs to dive for a ball yadda yadda yadda. And then you throw up a picture of Crawford diving for a ball. This KILLS my argument.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Playing alongside this guy
should do wonders for Ellsbury’s progression. I mean they’re so damn alike and all, I think it could really push him towards that level of player. Oohh that sounds good for the next five years or so.
Just throwing it out there
Alot of people are wondering if the Wall hinders CC’s defensive value. What if we put him in RF next year after Drew is gone? Do you think he has the arm? I would love to have his range out in the large area of RF.
When he was still with the Rays, people here likened his arm to Damon's and Ellsbury's
if this is true, then no, his arm won’t hold up in right.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
My cookies are legendary, and for good reason.
I'm quite sure his arm isn't up to it
Anyways, I’m hoping Kalish will be able to keep up his destruction of AAA and replace Drew in RF in 2012. That would be some pretty awesome OF corners
+1
For the love of god, can we get a QB and a new HC?
by return2greatness on Dec 9, 2010 9:27 AM EST up reply actions
+2
I gotta go 'cause I'm probably definitely gonna nod out again.
by Drugs Delaney on Dec 9, 2010 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
Kalish looks good
but adds another lefthanded bat to the lineup. Of course they will have an all lefty OF in 2011 also, but come 2012, the Sox may look to add a righty bat in the OF, perhaps trading Kalish or Ellsbury. On the other hand, if Kalish comes on the way we all hope, the Sox could just decide to live with the lefty OF lineup and get a righty DH in 2012.
Yeah I think that last one seems most likely
I know he didn’t in the majors, but through the minors, Kalish has had pretty good splits (I think actually hitting lefties a little bit better than righties) and Ells has always been pretty even.
True
He hits LHP better than RHP.
Twitter | "Almost every organization has a guy like Papelbon or Lester" - Dave Cameron 12/29/2005
This is exactly my thought
Crawford wasn’t my plan A. I didn’t think he was the correct solution to our problems and could be risky in the long term. Still might not be, but for now, all I can think about is just how very good this team is going to be in 2012.
Lineup?
ESPN is projecting:
Pedy
CC
Youk
Gonzo
Papi
Lowrie
Drew
Satly
Ells
I’m more inclined to think of it like this:
CC
Pedy
Gonzo
Youk
Papi
Drew
Lowrie
Satly
Ells
Of course, that’s contingent upon Lowrie starting and not Scoot but I suppose you could just swap them if their roles are reversed. Also, this is if no other moves are made… Thoughts?
For the love of god, can we get a QB and a new HC?
by return2greatness on Dec 9, 2010 9:26 AM EST reply actions
I like yours better
I really hope they move CC to leadoff and drop Jacoby to 9th. The only thing I might do is switch Drew and Lowrie but I like your lineup ALOT
Can’t wait to see how many runs this team gets. Hopefully our SP will stay healthy and produce like we know they can.
I like
vs RHP
Ellsbury
Crawford
Pedroia
Gonzalez
Youk
Ortiz
Drew
Salty
Scutaro
vs LHP
Ellsbury
Crawford
Pedroia
Gonzalez
Youk
Ortiz
Cameron
Lowrie
Tek
I’m thinking there’s a strong chance this is Tito’s preference. You can all bitch and moan about Ells… but he’s a perfectly fine lead off guy. Keep the two speedsters back to back and they can run like crazy. Petey in the 3 hole doesn’t seem discussed much but makes a ton of sense to me. Those are three pain in the ass guys to get out at the top, followed by three big boppers.
At an inflation rate of 4%
20,000,000 now is worth 29,000,000 in 10 years (closest I could get on a calculator). So figure 7 years
It's a compound interest equation
I couldn’t give it to you off the top of my head, but it’s not too hard to figure out.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
My cookies are legendary, and for good reason.
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 9, 2010 10:43 AM EST up reply actions
Ben, here is a big picture thought on why now?
Nothing is garaunteed in baseball; but, the Rays should be down next year (maybe) and the Yankees (though it is still early and they are the Yankees) are aging so there could be a 1-4 year window here where the Sox could put it all together and maybe more than once. Maybe, this is seen as a window that only opens so often; and, the new CBA could change the landscape – so the Sox are getting these guys in their primes along with the core they already have also in their primes…just a thought
"Man that ball got outta here in a hurry, you know anything that travels that far oughta have a damn stewardess on it, don't you think?" - Crash Davis
+1,000,000
It is all about now for the Red Sox. They have a good, young pitching staff, a core of solid players even before the Gonzalez and Crawford moves, and financial flexibilty. Nobody can predict the future three or four years down the road, all we can say is the Red Sox are absolutely loaded for the next few years.
For those concernend about financial felxibility, the Sox have a number contracts expiring next year, incluing Papi ($12mil), Drew ($14mil.), Wake, Scutaro(5) (and Papplebon ($11?). That’s over $40 million off the books at the end of next season. Pure gold.
of course as far as financial flexibility
About $17 million of that 40 is going straight to Gonzalez, and then we’ll have a few holes to fill. But we should have plenty to do what we need to.
Sox in 2010 look like Yankees in 2008
Remember the Yankees missing the playoffs in 2008? Then the went out and signed Texerira, Sabatthia and Burnett. I say 2008 was the Yankees bridge year. They waited until the players they wanted became available and pounced.
Last season the Sox went out and got the best starting pitcher avaialable in Lackey, but patched at 3B with a one year deal for Beltre, passed on Bay and patched with Scutaro at SS. When I noticed Wake’s contract went from 4 mil in 2010 to 1 in 2011, it became crystal clear to me the Sox were planning for this offseason for a while.
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