Top 5 Players The Red Sox Could Target To Play Left Field
by Jared Stegall on Dec 6, 2010 5:15 PM EST
in Analysis
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PrintYesterday, we all had an up-and-down day. We awoke with Adrian Gonzalez still being traded to the Red Sox. Hours later, when they couldn't reach an extension, the trade was dead in the water and Gonzalez on his way back to he west coast. Of course, a few hours later it turned out Gonzalez was not on a plane back to San Diego, but that he was in Boston ready to finalize the trade and pick up his Red Sox paraphernalia.
All of this madness kicked off the 2010 Winter Meetings early for Theo Epstein and the rest of the Red Sox organization, making probably the biggest splash of the offseason yet. Now that Gonzalez is on board, though, the team still has to fill the gap in left field, a need that could be addressed during these meetings.
A few days ago, all signs pointed that outfielder Jayson Werth was going to end up signing with the Red Sox. However, that is no longer an option as the outfielder and the Washington Nationals have agreed to a 7-year 126 million dollar contract. Although it is quite ridiculous the Nats signed the 31-year old Werth for 7 years, they still were able to steal him away from the Red Sox, eliminating their number one remaining target.
Also, earlier this morning, Joel Sherman of the New York Post is reported that the Diamondbacks have decided not to shop outfielder Justin Upton around. Although the Red Sox probably would not have had the prospects (with the Gonzo trade) to pull off a trade like this, it eliminates another top choice that Theo and company had been targeting.
With Werth and Upton off the market, here are the new top-5 players the Red Sox could target to fill the void in left field:
Carl Crawford
When Jayson Werth was rewarded heavily (and I mean heavily) by the Nationals with a 7-year contract, Crawford's stock went way up, possibly off the charts.
Crawford could now possibly looking at an 8-10 year deal for 20+ million dollars per season--a price the Red Sox wouldn't pay for Adrian Gonzalez (at least not yet).
Getting Crawford will be very, very difficult as the Angels, Tigers, Rangers, and Yankees have expressed interest him as well. The Angels are currently viewed as the favorite to sign Crawford, with the Red Sox probably second on the list.
With Adrian Beltre (a known target of the Angels) on the market and the Yankees possibly getting too pre-occupied with Cliff Lee, the Red Sox could come in and sweep up Crawford if they decided they want to pay the price for it.
With Gonzalez and Crawford on board, the Red Sox lineup would become predominantly left-handed, and therefore one-sided.
Crawford is clearly the best outfielder and possibly the best overall player on the market right now, and has been classified as a "game changer" by Terry Francona. Crawford is very appealing in the eyes of the Red Sox, but it will be very tough to place the best bid.
Josh Willingham
With Jayson Werth being brought in, the Nationals have said that they will likely trade outfielder Josh Willingham this offseason, in hopes that first overall pick Bryce Harper will take the duties in right field down the road with Werth sliding to left field.
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 - Josh Willingham | 114 | 370 | 54 | 99 | 19 | 2 | 16 | 56 | 67 | 85 | 8 | 0 | .268 | .389 | .459 |
Willingham put up solid numbers in 2010. He only managed a .268 average with 16 home runs and 56 RBI in 114 games, but also managed a very strong on-base percentage. I also give Willingham props because he has produced on a very bad team for the last two years.
The Red Sox would likely be able to swing a deal for Willingham without giving up any of their top prospects, which would work within Theo Epstein's system.
The upside I see in Willingham is that he has shown promise as a power hitter in the 2009 season, hitting 24 home runs. Willingham would likely hit number 6 in a possible Red Sox lineup. Although he doesn't drive in a lot of runs, Willingham won't be hitting cleanup as he did for the Nationals last year so he won't have as much pressure to drive in as many (maybe 60+).
Willingham would be a good fit in Boston as he would provide veteran leadership and a right-handed power threat in the number 6 spot in an already strong Red Sox lineup. He is only an average defender in left field, but would fit just fine in left field at Fenway Park.
Magglio Ordonez
Another veteran outfielder that the Red Sox could think about is former Tiger Magglio Ordonez.
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 - Magglio Ordonez | 84 | 323 | 56 | 98 | 17 | 1 | 12 | 59 | 40 | 38 | 1 | 0 | .303 | .378 | .474 |
Ordonez, 37, only played 84 games with Detroit last year as his season was cut short due to injury. However while he was healthy, he was able to hit .303 and drive in 59 runs in only half a season.
While Ordonez is a Type-A free agent, he was not offered arbitration, which means that any team that signs him would not have to give up any draft picks to the Detroit Tigers.
Ordonez has hit at least 20 home runs and 100 RBI during the 2006, 2007, and 2008 seasons with the Tigers while playing at least 145 games during each season, and was a 2.5 WAR player last year in limited action. He would likely play left field in Fenway Park as he isn't a good defender and has recorded often disastrous Rfield ratings over his career.
Ordonez could be a good fit, if the Red Sox are able to sign the 37-year old outfielder to a short-term deal. This might be difficult as he is represented by Scott Boras. However, with Ordonez coming off injury, his price may come down.
With Werth off the market and Crawford likely out of the picture, the Tigers have expressed the most interest in re-signing the 37-year old to hit in the middle of the order.
Ryan Kalish/Mike Cameron
The Red Sox could just settle with what they have and play either Mike Cameron or Ryan Kalish in left field without having to spend the extra money on another outfielder.
Kalish showed promise in 2010 as he was brought up to the majors due to injuries in the outfield. He put up great numbers in his first season in the big leagues.
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 - Ryan Kalish | 53 | 163 | 26 | 41 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 24 | 12 | 38 | 10 | 1 | .252 | .305 | .405 |
Kalish was limited in his time in the outfield as he only played 53 games in 2010. Kalish hasn't brought his power hitting to the MLB yet, however he is a great defender and would be a solid 8-or-9 hitter in a Red Sox lineup.
The Red Sox could also choose to give veteran Mike Cameron, whom they signed to a 2-year deal last offseason another chance, but this time in left field.
Cameron's 2010 season was limited as he battled groin and abdominal problems all season long. Even when he was active, Cameron would only be able to play about every other day as the injuries lingered throughout the season.
| G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 - Mike Cameron | 48 | 162 | 24 | 42 | 11 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 14 | 44 | 0 | 1 | .259 | .328 | .401 |
Cameron was singed last season to play center field, and to provide some offense as he did hit 24 home runs and drive in 70 RBI in 2009 when he played for the Milwaukee Brewers.
Cameron, who will be 38 in January could be a good option for the Red Sox in left field as when healthy, he could provide a line of .265/.350/.460, which isn't great but not at all bad for his age. Cameron is especially good against lefties, too, with a career .866 OPS facing southpaws.
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I'd say Kalish
He’s already on the team and at least he has upside. He may not be fully ready but if he lives up to his promise, he could put up big numbers. The others are all at their peak or well on the down side of their career with very little chance of outperforming expectations.
I voted Kalish...
I was comparing his career with that of Carlos Gonzalez a few days ago and while I’m not suggesting Kalish will be as good as Car Go is, they sure have similarities;
They are both 6’1" and 200 lbs, they are both left handed and check out their rookie years (or in Kalish’s case, his first year playing substantial time in the majors)
Gonzalez: .242/.273/.634 4 HR 26 RBI in 85 games
Kalish: .252/.305/.710 4 HR 25 RBI in 53 games
Again, not saying Kalish will end up as good, but the kid’s got potential and I’d like to see what he could do.
Troy Smith is our future
by return2greatness on Dec 6, 2010 11:47 PM EST up reply actions
I tossed in a vote for Willingham
But it’s conditional on his prospect cost. I have no idea what it would cost to acquire him, but this would be his last year of arbitration before free agency, so we aren’t taking on a multiple years of cost control, which would lower the price a bit.
I see him at least as a batter as a JD Drew lite. Not a great average but good on base and power skills hovering around a .850 OPS the last three years. In the field, well, he’s nothing like Drew there but the Monster would certainly help relegate that.
Ugh, I hate saying that, we used Bay’s bad LF defense as a reason to not sign him and now the Monster is a mitigating factor that makes bad defense acceptable. I (and we by extension) need to take a solid stance on that.
My plan B would be Mags and C would be Cameron/Kalish, ie, something we already have.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
well the difference with Bay is
he was getting a big money long term contract as he declined. I’m less concerned about getting a guy with fairly bad defense (I’d prefer not AS bad as Willingham, but there’s only so many options) on a one-year short term deal than saying “OK, we’re gonna pay you $17 million a year to watch your bad defense get worse”
and the knees. THE KNEES.
I cannot go any way besides Ordonez.
His filthy career OPS of .967 against lefties (and last year it was 1.171!!! And a wOBA of .496!!!!) is just filthy and exactly what this team needs to be well nigh unstoppable. His career .870 OPS against righties isn’t shabby either. I think that’s a bat worth hiding his glove for. I’d try and do an incentive-based contract with a vesting option for next year base on PAs. If he stays healthy, I’d love to have him around more than one year, he could even DH next year.
This idea doesn't kill me...
… provided we don’t have to sink a lot of money or years into it.
But once again, we’re dealing with a Boras client. You posted this while I was composing my stated confusion I posted below.
I’m still fine rolling with Ellsbury in LF, Cameron in CF (giving him a chance to prove the promise he had when we got him could be delivered in Fenway if he’s healthy) and Drew in RF for 2011. Kalish comes up mid-year to take over if Cameron fails to rebound, Nava is the fourth OF on the bench, and Reddick gets one more year in AAA to take over for Drew in 2012.
I have a hard time keeping as up on the Sox as those folks still living in the Northeast, but that seems to me to make the most sense for our OF.
i concur with both these
I’m ok with Ordonez – but for nothing longer than a 1 year plus team option.
Otherwise, non of the other candidates really appeal to me more than just taking our chances that Cam & Ells will be healthy.
Okay, I'm thoroughly confused here...
We got Adrian Gonzalez, saving us the expense of overpaying Beltre and giving us all the infield we were dreaming about for 2012.
We missed on Werth, which at 7 years for $126 million seems like a good miss. Even if we’d somehow gotten him for 5 years/$90 million, I’d have thought that was a waste. With Werth getting this money, we’re now priced out of the left-handed Crawford, I hope. I know we’ve been seriously pursuing him, but please, please, please… NO!
So this question: who plays LF confuses me. Has Ellsbury been officially named our starting CF this off season and I missed it? I thought Ellsbury was in LF, and Cameron starts in CF, with the hope that Kalish can come up mid-year and take over (if Cameron doesn’t deliver on the promise he had in 2010 before the hernia derailed his season).
My ideal line up, with Gonzalez:
LF Ellsbury
2B Pedroia
1B Gonzalez
3B Youkilis
DH Ortiz
RF Drew
CF Cameron
SS Lowrie (trading Scutaro for middle relief, I hope)
C Saltalamacchia
What am I missing here??
Relying on Cameron as a starter
fulll-time player. I like Cameron but we really need a solid 4th outfielder to mix in with Ells, Drew and Cammy. Ordonez makes a lot of sense
But the question was who to target for LF?
To me, the question wasn’t fourth OF, in which case I think Magglio could be a great solution, at the right price, giving us a fourth OF and insurance at DH for Big Papi if he starts off slow again in 2011.
However, if we’re talking starting LF… and we get Ordonez… we’re back to Ellsbury starting in CF? I don’t hold the same animosity some on here have for him. Frankly, I think my eyes tell me he’s good out there, even if the statistics don’t.
But not convinced Ellsbury in LF, and Kalish in CF isn’t the long term solution we might see starting in 2011.
Possibly
but i think Kalish could stand to get solid ABs in Pawtucket to start and come up when/if someone gets injured
To clarify, that's what I mean.
Ellsbury in LF, Cameron in CF, and Kalish starting the year in Pawtucket getting every day ABs, coming up by the All-Star Break or sooner if injuries dictate.
I’d rather see McDonald or Nava in the 4th OF spot, as I don’t think more time in Pawtucket helps either of them.
I thought McDonald was going to end up on someone else’s team, where he’d get a chance to start everyday? I know it was being discussed, but do we still have his rights? Would that mean a trade for a bullpen piece to give him a chance to make a team where he plays everyday?
I believe we still control his rights
but need to keep him on the 25 man or put him through waivers. The thing is, he’s basically a replacement level player. He had some awesome, huge, lovable moments but we can’t get any value for him because he doesn’t really have any value, and there’s no real reason to commit a spot on the 25-man roster to him if there are better options. I’m sure he’ll be on the team in Spring Training, but I doubt he makes it out. Will probably get signed to a minor league deal from there, or someone may take him as a 4th outfielder.
I just believe that an outfield consisting of Ordonez/Ellsbury/platoon of Drew and Cameron with Kalish ready to come up than an outfield of Cameron/Ellsbury/Drew with McDonald as the 4th outfielder. I love Kalish, but would rather have him see some more time in the minors and prove that he is indeed ready, that wasn’t just a hot streak in Pawtucket before he gets the call up.
To me, it’s just the difference between a team I see as a good team and a team I see as having a VERY good chance of winning the world series.
If you saw with your eyes, Ellsbury running and then diving to catch the ball, you saw what everyone else saw. A player who can steal 70 bases a year, with tremendous speed having to dive for a ball? He should have been there. Drew? Drew doesn’t have to dive, he gets a read off the ball and goes to where it should land.
Sometimes webgems aren’t a good thing. That’s just my general feeling on his defense.
As for Cameron, if he’s healthy I believe he should be the starting CF, he has a long history of strong defense there and just being a solid player in general. But if he has lost a step I expect it will be Ellsbury in center, of course this changes with any given FA signing/trade.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
True...
However, I have seen Drew make diving catches and great sliding catches at the wall in foul territory. If Ellsbury, with all that speed, is diving for a ball in dead center than that’s a bad read.
However, I remember the diving plays being on shallow balls or balls into the gap. To me, his speed gets him into position to make the play diving, when other guys would be chasing the double/triple to the wall or holding the batter to a single when it falls in front of them.
I hear he gets bad reads. I know the stats support that, but I don’t think all diving catches are bad reads. Sometimes, the player’s speed gets him in position to make the diving catch, which at times is what I see.
And, again, I echo your point: I see a lead off batter that steals 70 bases a year at the top of our order, and I know the steal is overrated… but somehow I wonder, after watching the Rays destroy our defense stealing at will, whether the steal doesn’t have more value than the statisticians are capturing.
I like putting the pressure on defense with Ellsbury on base, even if it’s stealing home on Petitte despite stumbling into the plate. I think he had a bad year last year, whether truly hurt or feelings hurt/bad advice from Boras, but I have hopes for him in 2011.
its all about percentages
Eventually, every fielder will have to make the ‘diving/sliding catch’ in order to go after a ball at the periphery of his range. Even with a perfect read, some balls knuckle too fast and also some outfields provide wide foul territory etc etc. So that’s going to occur for ALL fielders on some percentage of their chances.
But a player who gets a better read and a better jump will simply have fewer of those plays because they will be in better position to make a ‘routine catch’ of a higher percentage of their chances.
When the need is there, yes the athleticism is great. But better reads and fundamentals can greatly reduce the need for that athleticism.
Ultimately, the stats roll all of that up. When Ellsbury’s athleticism is helping him, it helps his stats. When his poor reads/jump made a catch impossible despite his athleticism, that hurt his stats.
What about...
Darnell McDonald? He is a bit older having been a career minor leaguer but wouldn’t he be a nice 4th OF? He’s got speed, doesn’t kill you on defense and proved he’s a great hitter off the bench. I like giving Kalish one more season with the PawSox. Let’s give Cameron a chance and go from there.
by Fenway302 on Dec 6, 2010 6:07 PM EST via mobile reply actions
I'm With You
Last year Darnell was asked to produce far more than anyone dreamed, and he still came out as league-average. And if an injury comes along, we call up Kalish, yes?
I don’t understand why we’re looking for a major addition in the outfield. I mean, I do understand we have a fragile corps out there, but to suddenly be entertaining a crop of slow, poor-fielding guys on the wrong side of 30 is bizarre to me.
If we have to go this route, I’d rather circle back on Fuentes’ older cousin. He’s the wrong side of 30 as well, but at least he can field and run a little. I’d still like to see what kind of salary-trading we could do with the Mets. Scoot & Dice-K for Beltran?
We need depth for the reason you stated
Age. McDonald was nice and a surprise last year but he doesn’t field all that great and his stats came from basically two hot months – April and August.
Other
Ellsfairy
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
You mean tink?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Willingham
Trade for the Hammer. He has a great year. He’s offered arbitration. Declines. Signs elsewhere as Type B possibly. Get draft picks?
What about Adrian Beltre?
I know it’s a bit out there, but Beltre screwed himself with the A’s and there is no obvious suitor for him besides Boston (or at least until the trade). His defense at 3rd is amazing so he’d be at least decent in Left Field. And Boy did he hit last year. Theo could get him for much more of a steal than Carl Crawford…
"We're not going to give up," It doesn't happen, so who cares? There's always next year. It's not like it's the end of the world."-Manny Ramirez
And what about Youk, Gonzo, and Ortiz?
by Florida Johnny on Dec 6, 2010 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
Oh, just saw you
said put Beltre in left
by Florida Johnny on Dec 6, 2010 8:58 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah but what about his ribs when Youk knees him?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Don't think that'll happen
it’s more likely Ells will run across the outfield screaming “revenge” and then break his knee on Beltre’s ribs.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
My cookies are legendary, and for good reason.
Outside the box :)
Beltre moves to SS (where he can take out TWO outfielders on shallow fly balls), Lowrie is utility infield, Scoot trade bait?. I’d think he’d convert pretty easily, actually. And for an outfield, Cam in L, Ells in C, and JD in R with Kalish in Pawtucket until ASB. Nava or DMac are both acceptable 4OFs if everyone stays healthy. If not, Kalish comes up early.
Ah, I dunno. Yay Winter Meetings!
Option C
Sign Crawford….this would make the line up very lefty heavy….package Ellsbury to the Dodgers for Matt Kemp. Change of scenery may do both players some good. Kalish can then stay in Pawtucket to get playing time until next year after Drew walks…or maybe this year when Drew gets a hang nail……
Bulldog1986
Congratulations
one post and I hate you.
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
My cookies are legendary, and for good reason.
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 6, 2010 10:05 PM EST up reply actions
LOL
If Ellsbury alone would get us Matt Kemp, I’d chop off my arm.
Troy Smith is our future
by return2greatness on Dec 6, 2010 11:51 PM EST up reply actions
what happened to the choice of starting ells on opening day in LF?
i’m appealing this survey – it’s flawed.
theo is on the record yesterday, as saying the sox may still be looking for an OF. this in theo speak is the sox are in tight negotiations with another OF.
theo is also on the record as saying due to the ridiculous werth signing, crawdaddy may be priced too high – so my guess is he is going after crawdaddy.
previously to the werth signing – the nats were saying that they would put willingham at first base if dunn signed elsewhere. i guess willingham has a bum leg or something that requires he use a walker when doing anything with his legs. this may hinder his ability to play the OF at fenway.
i think it will be ells, unless he is envolved in the trade that gets us upton for
CF. in that case, it will be crawdaddy
crawdaddy or ells/upton/cameron vs lefties, drew vs righties
why not?
I think the Dbacks said they are shutting down talks for Upton
embrace the martian
Twitter: @BoldandBrash
by BoldandBrash on Dec 6, 2010 10:31 PM EST up reply actions
you are right
i read that right after i read the gonzo trade was off.
i think the d-backs are trying to get more than has been offered.
i also, thought the trade would involve papelbomb, but i guess the d-backs signed some putz to be the closer.
maybe now bard
strictly a guess – but i think we will make a run after upton, right up to the time we get the 4th OFer that theo is after.
If he reads the site
Why isn’t he getting Soto?
If I was your math homework I'd be really hard and you'd be doing me on your desk.
I'm a 7 WAR player in bed.
My cookies are legendary, and for good reason.
by TheLoneDavid on Dec 6, 2010 11:57 PM EST up reply actions
Wouldn't that be awesome?
I mean, think of the money they could save in paying people to think out of the box when he has all of us loonies here at OTM right at his finger tips.
Just think about it.
What if Theo Epstein read this site. What if he was NG? Or 75bandwagon? What if he was you Bob, or me? Wouldn’t that be f&$%ing awesome?
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
Maybe it's you.
"We are not normal, We are Legends. People will tell their kids about us." - Deon Butler before Ohio State Game 2008.
You guys are freakin' me out.
Galactus does as he pleases. Because Galactus is drunk.
@#$%ing Twit: @blogtard
Mags is a perfect option if the deal is right
If he can be had for 1 or 2 yrs at a reasonable price, he’d fit perfectly as a meh LF and platooning DH v. lefties. This gives us a great bat that fits our line up needs (v lefties) and the timing would fit perfectly for the type of flexibility needed right now.
Before we go spend big $$ on an OFer, why not mess with the Yanks?
I think it is clear from even HAVING this discussion that it is not a given that the Sox need to go spend 20M on Crawford, or if they even need to go spend anything at all on an OFer. IF (yes, ‘if’) Ells & Cam are healthy, then that is a big upgrade over last year for free.
Now, if we don’t spend anything, how much $$ do we have left under the $170 budget (after setting aside a few Million for the bullpen)?
Its a pretty big chunk, if I recall. So why not try to drive the price of Cliff Lee up as much as possible?
Go offer Lee a relatively short but extremely fat contract – something like 3 years at some ridiculous number like $28M per (or whatever). I’m guessing he wouldn’t ultimately take that because he wants the longer contract he’s likely to get elsewhere. But it would help pump his price up, right?
The worse case outcome would be he’d accept it – but it would be short. We’d probably still get 2 great years out of him and come out ok. Obviously we’d have some starter rotation shuffling (or trading) to do, but it would be workable.
Thoughts?
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